Vale copper and nickel production outlook strengthens for 2025

Vale

Vale copper and nickel production outlook continues to improve as the Brazilian miner delivers a solid third quarter. The company reported higher copper output and broadly stable nickel production, keeping all base metal assets near the upper end of 2025 guidance. This Vale copper and nickel production outlook underscores the importance of Brazil and Canada within the group’s growth plan.

Copper growth keeps Vale on track with 2025 guidance

Vale copper and nickel production outlook is anchored by another strong performance from its copper division. Third-quarter copper production rose 6pc year-on-year to 90,800t, supported by consistent operations in Brazil and steady polymetallic output in Canada. Payable copper sales climbed 14.8pc to 90,000t, helped by smooth logistics and strong market demand.

In Brazil, Salobo drove copper growth with a 13pc output increase to 53,000t on robust mine-mill performance. Sossego slipped just 2pc to 19,900t after a week of planned maintenance, suggesting limited underlying weakness. In Canada, total copper production dipped 6pc to 18,400t as Vale ended copper-precipitate recovery at Thompson, even while Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay both delivered 11pc higher concentrate volumes.

Higher prices also lifted the Vale copper and nickel production outlook. Vale realised an average copper price of $9,818/t, up $833/t quarter-on-quarter, reflecting firmer LME benchmarks and lower treatment and refining charges. Nine-month copper output reached 274,300t, up 11.4pc year-on-year, keeping the group on pace for its 2025 guidance range of 340,000–370,000t.

Nickel production stable as new capacity comes online

Meanwhile, Vale copper and nickel production outlook on the nickel side remains stable despite heavy maintenance. Third-quarter nickel output slipped just 0.6pc to 46,800t, as refinery downtime offset strong mine performance. Nickel sales rose 5.4pc to 42,900t, although the realised nickel price eased 2.3pc to $15,445/t in line with softer LME levels.

In Canada, Sudbury’s finished nickel production fell 31pc to 8,500t because of work at the Copper Cliff refinery, even as ore mined jumped 45pc to 3.6mn t. Voisey’s Bay output surged 74pc to 10,700t, driven by the ramp-up of the Eastern Deeps and Reid Brook underground mines before a planned shutdown in September. Long Harbour refinery set a new quarterly production record, confirming the asset’s role as a core hub in Vale’s nickel chain.

Brazilian nickel production slipped 5pc to 5,900t, but Onça Puma held steady as it completed early maintenance linked to a second furnace start-up in late September. That new furnace adds 15,000 t/yr of capacity, lifting site capacity to 40,000 t/yr and setting the stage for growth from the December quarter onward. Nine-month nickel output reached 131,000t, up 14.4pc, allowing Vale to maintain its 2025 guidance of 160,000–175,000t and support a resilient Vale copper and nickel production outlook.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale copper and nickel production outlook highlights how disciplined maintenance and targeted brownfield investments can offset operational noise. Additional nickel capacity at Onça Puma and continued strength at Salobo position Vale to benefit from any upside in copper and nickel prices. For downstream users, the guidance stability signals that Vale remains a reliable anchor in an otherwise volatile base metals supply chain.

Vale Sees Rise in Nickel and Copper Output in 3Q Amid Maintenance Challenges

Vale

Brazilian multi-metals mining group Vale reported a year-on-year increase in nickel production for the third quarter of 2024, driven primarily by higher output from its Canadian mines, including Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay. However, the company’s total production for the first nine months of the year was slightly down compared to the same period in 2023, largely due to longer-than-expected maintenance shutdowns at several key mines.

Nickel Production Boosted by Canadian Mines

Vale's nickel production rose by 12% year-on-year, reaching 47,100 tonnes during the July-September period. However, the total production for the first nine months of the year was 4.7% lower than in 2023, with 114,400 tonnes of nickel produced. A significant contributor to the growth was the Sudbury mine, where finished nickel production increased by 84% year-on-year, reaching 12,300 tonnes. This was primarily due to the resumption of smelting and refining operations at Sudbury, following its biennial maintenance shutdown.

In addition, production at Voisey’s Bay saw a significant increase, rising by 56.4% year-on-year to 6,100 tonnes, thanks to higher nickel grades following extended maintenance work. Vale also reported a 55% increase in production from its Thompson mine, which reached 3,100 tonnes.

Challenges and Power Disruption in Brazil

In Brazil, production from the Onça Puma mine increased by 7% to 6,200 tonnes, following a furnace rebuild. However, the mine experienced a power disruption after a severe windstorm damaged a local utility company's transmission line, which impacted operations. Despite this, Vale's performance in Brazil’s nickel sector remained robust.

Indonesia and Third-Party Contributions

Vale’s nickel production from Indonesia saw a dramatic rise, nearly tripling year-on-year to 19,300 tonnes in the third quarter. This increase was driven by the offtake from third-party suppliers and production from its subsidiary, PT Vale Indonesia.

Copper Production Up Despite Setbacks at Salobo Mine

Vale’s copper production also saw growth, with a 5.3% increase in the third quarter, reaching 85,900 tonnes. Over the first nine months of the year, copper output rose by 8.3% to 246,300 tonnes. At the Salobo mine in Brazil, production was impacted by a conveyor belt fire at Salobo’s third plant, which led to a 6% decline in output. However, higher production at its other two plants helped mitigate the losses.

The Sossego mine also performed well, with production rising by 15.2% to 19,700 tonnes, thanks to stronger output and improved feed grades after the mine’s operational license was reinstated in June.

In Canada, Vale’s copper production surged by 31.5% to 19,600 tonnes, further contributing to the overall rise in copper production for the quarter.

Production Guidance for 2024

Vale has maintained its production guidance for 2024, with an expected output of 153,000-168,000 tonnes of nickel and 320,000-355,000 tonnes of copper.

Boliden’s 2024 Output Shows Mixed Performance in Zinc and Nickel Production

Boliden

Zinc Production Declines, But Copper and Nickel Output Increase for Sweden's Boliden

Sweden-based mining company Boliden has reported mixed results for its 2024 production across various metals. Zinc output showed a notable decline, while copper and nickel production saw significant increases. This reflects both challenges and successes in the company’s operations, driven by factors such as environmental restrictions and planned maintenance.

Zinc Production Declines, While Copper and Nickel Perform Well

Boliden's zinc-in-concentrate production increased by 8% in the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching 41,680 tonnes. However, the company’s full-year zinc output fell by 16%, totaling 164,108 tonnes, attributed to limited production at the Swedish Garpenberg mine due to environmental permit restrictions. Additionally, maintenance work at the Swedish Boliden Area mine further impacted overall zinc output.

Despite the drop in zinc production, the company managed a 7% increase in zinc production in the fourth quarter, reaching 112,692 tonnes. For the full year, Boliden's total zinc output dropped by just 1% to 453,743 tonnes, a relatively small decrease considering the challenges faced.

Copper and Nickel Show Strong Growth

Boliden reported a 7% increase in its copper-in-concentrate production for Q4 2024, reaching 22,326 tonnes. This brought the total copper-in-concentrate output for the year to 90,692 tonnes, a 1% increase from 2023. However, copper cathode production saw a drop of 29% for the full year, totaling 158,968 tonnes, due to the suspension of cathode production at Sweden's Ronnskar smelter.

On the other hand, copper anode production rose by 6% in Q4, reaching 120,856 tonnes, and the total annual output increased by 11% to 433,778 tonnes. This was supported by higher output at the Ronnskar smelter in the fourth quarter.

Nickel production was one of the standout performers. Boliden’s nickel-in-concentrate output increased by 11% in Q4, reaching 2,849 tonnes. For the full year, nickel production surged by 16% to 11,529 tonnes, driven by higher recovery rates at Finland's Kevitsa mine. Additionally, nickel-in-matte production for the fourth quarter rose by 6%, totaling 11,715 tonnes. Annual nickel-in-matte production increased by 17% to 40,074 tonnes.

Boliden’s Outlook for 2025

While Boliden faced challenges with its zinc production, the company’s increased copper and nickel output in 2024 demonstrates its ability to adapt and meet growing global demand for these critical metals. The strong performance in copper and nickel, alongside ongoing operational improvements, positions Boliden to continue making significant contributions to the global mining sector in 2025.

Nickel Industries Indonesian Output Shows Ore Pressure Despite HPAL Growth

Nickel Industries, Indonesian

Nickel Industries Indonesian output was mixed in the first quarter as lower mining volumes and declining nickel grades contrasted with higher nickel pig iron and mixed hydroxide precipitate production. The Australia-based producer reported weaker ore output but stronger downstream processing across its Indonesian RKEF and HPAL assets.

Nickel Industries Indonesian output reflects the increasingly complex operating environment for nickel producers in Indonesia. Mining permits, ore grades, sulphur availability and downstream ramp-up timing are all shaping production performance.

Nickel Industries Indonesian output also shows why Indonesia’s nickel market can no longer be viewed only through capacity additions. Feedstock access and ore quality are becoming just as important as new processing plants.

Total nickel ore production fell by 30% from a year earlier to 3.96mn wet metric tonnes in January-March. However, output almost tripled from the previous quarter after mining activity recovered from RKAB quota delays late last year.

RKAB Quota Recovery Supports Ore Flow but Grades Weaken

Nickel Industries received 14.3mn wmt of 2026 RKAB nickel ore quota this year. This was 36% higher than its total approved quota of 10.5mn wmt in 2025.

The higher quota helped production recover from the December quarter, when mining was disrupted by RKAB delays. The company also plans to apply for additional RKAB quotas later this year.

The Hengjaya mine supplies ore to Nickel Industries’ RKEF and HPAL plants. These facilities produce nickel pig iron for stainless steel markets and mixed hydroxide precipitate for battery material supply chains.

Total NPI output from the Hengjaya, Ranger, Oracle and Angel RKEF operations rose by 4.4% year on year and 1.7% quarter on quarter to 274,086t.

However, nickel-contained production fell to 30,264t because the average nickel content of NPI dropped to 11% from 12.1% a year earlier. This is a critical signal for margins because lower grades reduce metal output even when furnace volumes rise.

The result shows how Indonesian nickel producers face a tightening relationship between ore availability and processing efficiency. Higher RKEF output does not automatically mean stronger nickel production if feedstock grades weaken.

HPAL Growth Continues as ENC Start-Up Moves to Second Quarter

Nickel Industries’ Huayue Nickel Cobalt HPAL project produced 21,526t of nickel and 2,370t of cobalt in MHP form during the first quarter. Nickel output rose by 1.7% from a year earlier, while cobalt output increased by 23%.

This growth strengthens Nickel Industries’ exposure to battery materials. MHP remains a key intermediate product for nickel sulphate and other battery chemical supply chains.

The company’s next major step is the Excelsior Nickel Cobalt HPAL project. Commissioning has been delayed to the second quarter, with full ramp-up targeted by the end of October.

ENC had previously been expected to start commissioning in the first quarter. The delay matters because HPAL projects are technically complex and depend on stable feedstock, acid supply, utilities and commissioning discipline.

Nickel Industries said it has enough sulphur inventory to support ENC’s ramp-up until the third quarter. The company previously bought sulphur at an average price of $450/t.

Sulphur availability is now a strategic issue for HPAL producers. Any disruption in sulphur or sulphuric acid supply can raise costs and slow production growth across Indonesia’s battery nickel chain.

The company also plans to list nickel cathode produced at ENC on both the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange. Exchange approval would support market acceptance and improve the project’s commercial flexibility.

Nickel Industries increased its stake in ENC by 2% for $46mn on 1 April, lifting its interest to 46% and making it the project’s largest shareholder. This gives the company greater exposure to Indonesia’s move from NPI and MHP toward Class I nickel products.

The broader implication is clear. Nickel Industries is moving across the Indonesian nickel value chain, from ore mining and RKEF production into HPAL, MHP and exchange-deliverable cathode.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nickel Industries’ quarter shows that Indonesia’s nickel growth is becoming more constrained by ore quality, RKAB permits and sulphur logistics. Capacity still matters, but the winners will be producers that control feedstock, manage HPAL complexity and secure recognised Class I nickel routes.

Merdeka Nickel Ore Production Hits Target as Downstream Expansion Gains Pace

Merdeka Battery Materials

Merdeka nickel ore production reached its 2025 target as stronger mining capacity and better weather lifted output at Sulawesi Cahaya Mineral. MBMA produced 7mn wet metric tonnes of saprolite and 14.7mn wet metric tonnes of limonite during the year. Both results rose sharply from 2024. As a result, Merdeka nickel ore production now shows that upstream growth is still supporting Indonesia’s broader nickel strategy.

The scale of the increase matters because ore supply remains the foundation of Indonesia nickel downstream expansion. Saprolite output rose 42pc year on year, while limonite output increased 45pc. The company met its saprolite target and exceeded its limonite target. Therefore, Merdeka nickel ore production is giving the group a stronger base for its processing chain.

This performance also highlights the importance of operating conditions in Indonesian mining. MBMA said optimized mining activity and lower rainfall disruption supported the result. That means the production gain did not come from capacity alone. Consequently, Merdeka nickel ore production reflects both better execution and more favorable site conditions.

Indonesia Nickel Downstream Expansion Still Shows Uneven Product Performance

Indonesia nickel downstream expansion remains the central strategic story for MBMA, but 2025 results showed a mixed product picture. The company’s downstream portfolio includes NPI, high-grade nickel matte, and mixed hydroxide precipitate. Each product line moved differently over the year. As a result, MBMA nickel output was not uniformly strong across the chain.

NPI production fell 10pc to 73,871t in nickel metal equivalent because of maintenance at the RKEF smelters. Even so, the result still landed inside the company’s guidance range. That suggests NPI operations remained resilient despite maintenance pressure. Meanwhile, high-grade nickel matte output fell much more sharply, dropping 60pc to 19,998t in nickel metal equivalent.

That matte weakness reflected a deliberate operating shift. MBMA halted HGNM production in the first quarter of 2025 and only restarted output in October after securing a new contract. Therefore, the lower HGNM result was not simply an operational failure. It also reflected a commercial reset inside the product mix.

HPAL Nickel Growth Is Becoming More Important for MBMA’s Next Phase

HPAL nickel growth is now becoming the most important part of MBMA’s medium-term outlook. The PT ESG HPAL plant, operated with Green Eco-Manufacture, produced 25,994t of nickel in MHP in 2025. That gives the company a stronger foothold in battery-linked nickel chemicals. Consequently, Indonesia nickel downstream expansion is moving deeper into higher-value processing.

The next growth driver is already under construction. The Sulawesi Nickel Cobalt HPAL project is expected to start commissioning in the second half of this year. With capacity of 90,000 t/yr of nickel in MHP, the project could materially change MBMA’s downstream profile. Therefore, HPAL nickel growth may become the main reason investors watch MBMA more closely in 2026.

The company’s new guidance supports that view. MBMA raised its 2026 ore production targets for both saprolite and limonite, while also lifting its HGNM target sharply. MHP output from PT ESG is also expected to rise. As a result, Merdeka nickel ore production is no longer just an upstream success story. It is increasingly the feed base for a much broader downstream buildout.

The Metalnomist Commentary

MBMA’s 2025 result shows that Indonesia’s nickel model still depends on strong ore delivery before downstream value can scale. The real takeaway is not just that ore targets were met. It is that HPAL and chemical capacity are becoming more central to the company’s future than traditional nickel products alone.

Weiming Launches Nickel Cathode Production in Zhejiang Province

Weiming

Chinese Manufacturer Aims to Boost Nickel Output with New Facility

Weiming, a major Chinese environmental protection equipment manufacturer, has started producing nickel cathodes at its subsidiary, Weiming Shengqing, located in Wenzhou, Zhejiang province. This development marks a significant milestone as the company ramps up its nickel production capacity to meet growing global demand for the metal.

The first phase of the project is focused on a 25,000-tonne-per-year (t/yr) production capacity for nickel cathodes. Weiming is progressing well with this phase, and it expects to complete the second phase—also adding another 25,000 t/yr—by the first half of 2025. Once fully operational, the plant will contribute significantly to China's nickel supply, which is essential for battery production and other industrial applications.

Sourcing Raw Materials for Cathode Production

Weiming uses nickel matte and mixed-hydroxide-precipitate (MHP) as the primary feedstocks for its nickel cathode production. In August 2024, the company received its first shipment of nickel matte from Indonesia, amounting to 1,429 tons. This shipment marks a key milestone in Weiming’s strategy to secure reliable and sustainable sources of raw materials for its operations.

The company also operates the Jiaman high nickel matte project in Indonesia in partnership with Merit International Capital. This project, with a nameplate capacity of 40,000 tons per year of nickel metal equivalent, is poised to further support Weiming’s nickel supply chain. Located in the Weda Bay region of North Maluku Province, the project features four production lines, each capable of producing 10,000 tons of nickel metal equivalent annually.

Future Outlook for Weiming's Nickel Production

As the demand for nickel continues to rise, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) and battery sectors, Weiming's expansion into nickel cathode production strengthens its position in the global metals market. The company’s strategic investments in Indonesia, alongside its domestic production capacity, will help ensure a steady supply of nickel to meet both local and international demand.

With the second phase of the production facility expected to complete by mid-2025, Weiming is set to play an increasingly pivotal role in global nickel production. This expansion reflects broader trends in the metals industry, where companies are focusing on securing sustainable and high-quality feedstocks to support the green energy transition.

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Vale Copper Production Rises as Brazilian Mines Offset Canadian Disruptions

Vale, Brazilian Mines

Vale copper production increased in the first quarter as record combined output from the Salobo and Sossego mines strengthened the Brazilian mining group’s base metals performance. The company produced 102,300t of copper in January-March, up 12.5% from a year earlier.

Vale copper production was supported mainly by stronger domestic mine performance. Sossego output rose sharply, while Salobo posted a modest increase, helping offset weaker production from the Sudbury operation in Canada.

Vale copper production growth is important because the company is positioning copper and nickel as core transition metals. Higher output from Brazilian assets improves near-term supply while supporting Vale’s longer-term strategy to expand base metals exposure.

Salobo and Sossego Drive Copper Output Higher

Sossego delivered the strongest copper growth in the quarter. Production rose by 81.3% on the year to 29,000t, supported by strong mill performance and increased ore processing ahead of planned maintenance in the second quarter.

The stronger Sossego result shows how operational timing can influence quarterly copper supply. Vale pushed processing before maintenance, allowing the mine to lift output significantly compared with the previous year.

Salobo remained Vale’s largest copper contributor. Output increased by 1% on the year to 52,800t, giving the group a stable production base in Brazil.

Together, Salobo and Sossego delivered record combined production. This helped Vale absorb weaker performance from Sudbury, where copper output fell by nearly 10% to 20,400t.

Sudbury was affected by unexpected snowstorms and unplanned maintenance at the Clarabelle pit. The maintenance specifically hit copper concentrate production, although Vale said the issue has now been resolved.

The first-quarter result highlights the importance of geographic diversification. Stronger Brazilian output allowed Vale to grow copper production even as weather and maintenance disruptions affected Canadian operations.

Nickel Output Rises Across Canada and Brazil

Vale’s nickel production also increased in the first quarter. Total output rose by 12.3% on the year to 49,300t, supported by stronger production across Canadian and Brazilian assets.

Finished nickel production using Sudbury ore rose by 11.5% to 10,600t. This increase offset the effect of unplanned maintenance at Vale’s third converting reactor.

Voisey Bay delivered a stronger result. Nickel output rose by 61.5% on the year to 10,500t, supporting the group’s Canadian nickel performance.

Thompson moved in the opposite direction. Production fell by 66.7% to 12,000t because of a pipeline blockage worsened by poor weather conditions.

In Brazil, Onca Puma output rose by 64.8% to 8,900t. Vale said the increase was driven by the strongest production to date from the mine’s second furnace.

Nickel production from external feed in Indonesia fell by 2.2% to 18,100t. This included offtake from third parties and material linked to Vale’s local subsidiary, PT Vale Indonesia.

The mixed nickel results show that Vale’s base metals performance depends on several operating systems, including mines, furnaces, converters, external feed and weather-sensitive logistics. Still, the overall increase in nickel output strengthens Vale’s supply position in a market tied to stainless steel, batteries and high-performance alloys.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s first-quarter results show that copper and nickel growth increasingly depends on operational reliability, not only resource size. Stronger Brazilian output gave Vale a buffer against Canadian disruptions, reinforcing the strategic value of diversified base metals production.

Jutai Nickel Cathode Production Adds Flexibility to China’s Downstream Nickel Chain

Zhejiang Jutai Plant

Jutai nickel cathode production has started at Zhejiang Jutai’s integrated refinery in Zhoushan, adding new capacity to China’s fast-expanding downstream nickel processing sector. The facility has 30,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity and can use mixed hydroxide precipitate or nickel matte as feedstock.

Jutai nickel cathode production strengthens the company’s ability to respond to changing nickel market conditions. The same Zhoushan site also hosts a 100,000 t/yr nickel sulphate project that was commissioned in October 2025, giving the complex around 55,000 t/yr of nickel capacity on a metal equivalent basis.

The new operation matters because China is rapidly converting imported nickel intermediates into higher-value products. Jutai nickel cathode production shows how MHP and matte supply are reshaping the country’s refining system beyond battery chemicals alone.

MHP and Matte Supply Drive New Refining Capacity

Nickel intermediates are becoming the foundation of China’s new nickel processing model. Growing supplies of MHP and nickel matte allow refiners to produce nickel sulphate, nickel cathode, and other downstream products depending on margins and customer demand.

Zhejiang Jutai’s Zhoushan complex reflects this flexible approach. The company can switch between nickel sulphate and nickel cathode output, which gives it commercial optionality across battery materials and refined metal markets. This flexibility is important when nickel prices, sulphate demand, and stainless steel-linked sentiment move in different directions.

The development also shows how China continues to capture value from Indonesia-linked nickel flows. As MHP and matte availability expands, Chinese refiners can build more diversified processing routes and strengthen their role in the global nickel value chain.

China Nickel Cathode Output Continues to Expand

China’s nickel cathode production reached 415,000t in 2025, up 24pc from the previous year. Output is expected to keep rising in 2026 as new capacity starts up, existing plants expand, and firmer nickel prices improve production economics.

Higher LME nickel prices are also supporting the sector. The average LME cash price reached $15,150/t in 2025, while the year-to-date average climbed to $17,482/t by late February, driven partly by reduced Indonesian nickel ore supply.

Shaanxi Jutai, Zhejiang Jutai’s parent company, already has experience in battery material production. Its Xi’an complex began producing nickel sulphate in 2018 and also produces cobalt sulphate, manganese sulphate, vanadium pentoxide, and molybdenum products. This gives the group a broader platform across strategic metals used in batteries, alloys, and industrial materials.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Jutai’s Zhoushan project highlights China’s strength in processing flexibility. The country is not only adding nickel capacity; it is building assets that can shift between battery chemicals and refined metal as market conditions change.

Glencore Copper and Nickel Output Weakens as Grade Pressure Hits 2025 Performance

Glencore

Glencore copper and nickel output weakened in 2025 as grade pressure and operational constraints reduced production across key assets. Own-sourced copper production fell 11pc to 851,600t. Own-sourced nickel production also declined. As a result, Glencore copper and nickel output reflected a difficult year for ore quality, maintenance, and mine sequencing.

The copper decline was driven by several large operations. Collahuasi posted the biggest drop because of complex stockpiled ore and water constraints. Antamina also saw lower grades from planned mining sequences. Meanwhile, Antapaccay faced harder ore and throughput limits. Mount Isa production also fell after the MICO mine closure.

Nickel performance showed similar pressure. Glencore’s own-sourced nickel output totalled 71,900t in 2025. Lower production at INO in Canada and Murrin Murrin in Australia weighed on results. Furnace disruption and maintenance downtime were the main causes. Therefore, Glencore copper and nickel output declined for both geological and operational reasons.

Second-Half Recovery Helped Glencore Copper Production Stabilise

Glencore copper production improved sharply in the second half of the year. Own-sourced output in July-December rose 48pc from the first half. Better grades at KCC in the DRC supported that recovery. Antamina also improved after an earlier safety stoppage, while Antapaccay benefited from resumed leaching operations.

This rebound matters because it shows the company still has recovery potential inside its portfolio. The second-half improvement did not erase the annual decline, but it changed the tone. It suggests the worst operating conditions may not persist through 2026. However, mine sequencing remains a continuing risk.

Collahuasi remains especially important to watch. Water constraints there began easing after commissioning of a new desalination plant in the second half. If that support continues, copper production could become more stable. Consequently, Glencore copper production may hold firmer in 2026 than the 2025 headline suggests.

Glencore Nickel Production Outlook Points to Only Modest Recovery

Glencore nickel production also improved late in the year, but the recovery remained limited. Fourth-quarter nickel output rose nearly a quarter from July-September to 19,500t. INO recovered after earlier smelter disruption. However, Murrin Murrin still faced maintenance-related pressure.

That explains why 2026 guidance looks cautious rather than aggressive. Copper guidance of 810,000-870,000t is broadly in line with 2025. Nickel guidance of 70,000-80,000t suggests only a modest recovery. Therefore, management still expects grade variability and operational discipline to define performance.

The broader message is clear. Glencore is not facing a collapse in production capacity. It is dealing with portfolio complexity, asset-specific constraints, and uneven recovery across operations. As a result, Glencore copper and nickel output may remain stable, but not yet fully restored to earlier levels.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s 2025 results show how quickly diversified mining portfolios can still be hit by grade and sequencing issues. The second-half rebound is encouraging, but the 2026 outlook remains cautious for good reason. This is a recovery story, but not yet a full reset.

Nornickel Nickel Output Holds Flat as Copper and PGM Production Decline

Nornickel

Nornickel nickel output was broadly stable in the first quarter, while the Russian multi-metals producer reported lower copper and platinum group metal production from a high year-earlier base. Consolidated nickel production edged up by 0.3% on the year to 41,746t in January-March.

Nornickel nickel output stability contrasts with weaker copper, palladium and platinum volumes. Copper output fell by 10% to 98,679t, palladium production dropped by 18% to 608,000oz, and platinum output declined by 24% to 136,000oz.

Nornickel said the lower copper and PGM figures reflected a high production base in the first quarter of 2025 and the redistribution of commercial product volumes between quarters. The company maintained its full-year 2026 production guidance.

The result shows that Nornickel nickel output remains comparatively steady, while quarterly copper and PGM figures can move sharply because of timing, ore processing patterns and product shipment schedules.

Nickel Stability Supports Core Production Outlook

Nickel remains one of Nornickel’s most important products because of its role in stainless steel, high-performance alloys, batteries and industrial manufacturing. Stable first-quarter output suggests that the company’s core nickel operations remain within its planned production range.

Nornickel kept its 2026 Russian feedstock guidance unchanged at 193,000-203,000t for nickel. This indicates that the company does not currently view the flat first-quarter result as a signal of operational weakness.

The nickel market remains sensitive to supply from Russia because Nornickel is a major producer of high-grade material. Even when global nickel markets face oversupply from Indonesian growth, Russian nickel still has strategic relevance for stainless steel, alloy and battery-linked consumers.

Copper showed a weaker quarterly result. Output from the company’s own Russian feedstock, excluding Trans-Baikal, totalled 80,000t during the period.

However, the Bystrinsky copper project in the Trans-Baikal division performed better. Copper in concentrate output rose by 6% on the year to 18,545t, supported by higher ore processing volumes and higher metal content in ore.

This improvement at Bystrinsky partly offsets the wider copper decline. It also shows the importance of ore grade and processing throughput in quarterly copper performance.

Nornickel maintained its 2026 Russian feedstock copper guidance at 336,000-356,000t. Guidance for Trans-Baikal copper in concentrate also remained unchanged at 69,000-73,000t.

PGM Decline Reflects Timing Rather Than Guidance Change

Nornickel’s platinum group metals output fell sharply in the first quarter, but the company did not adjust its full-year forecast. Palladium output fell by 18%, while platinum declined by 24%.

The company attributed the weaker figures to a high comparison base and quarterly timing effects in commercial products. This suggests the decline may not translate directly into lower full-year supply.

Nornickel kept its 2026 palladium guidance at 2.415mn-2.465mn oz and platinum guidance at 616,000-636,000oz. These metals remain important for automotive catalysts, electronics, chemicals, hydrogen technologies, jewellery and industrial applications.

The PGM market remains highly concentrated, with Russia and South Africa playing major roles in primary supply. Any sustained change in Russian production can therefore influence availability, trade flows and customer procurement strategies.

For buyers, the first-quarter data point to the need to separate operational weakness from quarterly timing. Lower reported output can affect sentiment, but unchanged guidance suggests Nornickel expects production to normalise across the year.

The broader strategic issue remains Russian supply exposure. Nornickel’s metals are important to global nickel, copper and PGM supply chains, but geopolitical risk, sanctions compliance and trade route uncertainty continue to shape how buyers handle Russian-origin material.

The first-quarter result therefore carries a mixed message. Nickel output remained stable, Bystrinsky copper improved, and full-year guidance was unchanged. However, lower copper and PGM production underline the importance of monitoring quarterly timing, product flows and operating consistency.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nornickel’s first-quarter figures suggest stability in nickel but greater quarterly volatility in copper and PGMs. For global buyers, the bigger issue is not only production volume, but how Russian-origin metals move through increasingly complex trade and compliance channels.

Nornickel Raises 2024 Production Guidance After Successful Repair Work

Nornickel

Russian multi-metals mining giant, Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), has raised its production forecast for 2024, including its key metals — nickel, copper, platinum, and palladium. This increase comes after Nornickel completed scheduled capital repair work ahead of time in the third quarter, boosting its operational efficiency.

The revised forecast shows Nornickel plans to produce between 196,000-204,000 tons of nickel, 337,000-357,000 tons of copper, 2.624 million to 2.724 million ounces of palladium, and 639,000 to 664,000 ounces of platinum in 2024. These numbers surpass the earlier projections made at the start of the year, which had set the target ranges at 184,000-194,000 tons for nickel, 334,000-354,000 tons for copper, 2.296 million-2.451 million ounces for palladium, and 567,000-605,000 ounces for platinum.

Efficient Furnace Repairs Drive Increased Output

One of the major contributors to this positive revision in production guidance was the early completion of the reconstruction of the flash smelting furnace No. 2 at the Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant. Originally planned for 90 days, the furnace repair was completed in just 60 days, resulting in a 25% increase in smelting capacity. This allowed Nornickel to recover nickel production ahead of schedule and significantly boost mined production volumes.

Thanks to this efficient repair work, Nornickel’s nickel production saw a 3.45% year-on-year rise in the third quarter, reaching 55,805 tons. This represented a 16% increase from the previous quarter, further highlighting the positive impact of the Nadezhda furnace repairs. From January to September, Nornickel’s nickel output increased by 0.3% year-on-year, totaling 146,210 tons.

Growth in Copper and Platinum Group Metals

In addition to nickel, Nornickel's copper production also showed impressive growth, with a 7% increase year-on-year, reaching 107,497 tons in Q3. Output from January to September also rose by 7%, totaling 326,072 tons. This surge was attributed to a lower production base in 2023, as Nornickel upgraded its copper plant operations to improve the quality of copper cathodes.

Nornickel also saw a rise in its production of platinum group metals (PGMs). Palladium output increased by 2%, reaching 676,000 ounces, while platinum rose by 3.12% to 165,000 ounces. However, despite these gains, PGM production saw an 8% decrease in output compared to the second quarter due to the extended production cycle for these metals.

Market Impact and Price Outlook

The news of Nornickel’s production improvements comes amid a widening Class 1 nickel surplus, which has exerted downward pressure on nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Recently, nickel prices have been trading in the $16,000-$18,000 per ton range, with the most recent contract priced at $16,062.50 per ton, its lowest since September 13.

Nornickel’s expanded output and the influx of nickel from new Asian LME brands have contributed to this surplus, impacting the LME nickel benchmark. Despite the surplus, analysts expect the price of nickel to stabilize within the current range in the near term.

Anglo American Reports 3Q Decline in Copper Output but Revises Nickel and PGM Guidance Upwards

Anglo American

Anglo American, the UK-South African mining giant, experienced a 13% year-on-year decline in copper production during the third quarter of 2024, with output falling to 181,000 tons. The decrease was primarily attributed to reduced production at its mines in Chile and Peru.

Copper Production Highlights

• Peru’s Quellaveco Mine: Output fell 21% to 68,700 tons due to lower grades and recoveries. Production is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter.
• Chilean Operations: Output dropped 7% to 112,600 tons, driven by the planned closure of the Los Bronces plant in July, where production fell 20%. However, higher grades at El Soldado boosted output by 16%, partially offsetting the losses.

Total copper production for the year to date reached 575,000 tons, down 4% year-on-year. The company remains on track to meet its full-year production guidance of 730,000-790,000 tons, split between 430,000-460,000 tons from Chile and 300,000-330,000 tons from Peru.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) Performance

• PGMs in Concentrate: Production dropped 10% to 922,000 ounces due to lower output at South Africa’s Mogalakwena and Amandelbult mines. Higher production at Zimbabwe’s Unki mine partially offset these declines.
• Refined PGMs: Production rose 22% to 1.11 million ounces, supported by stability in processing operations.

Anglo American revised its full-year refined PGM production guidance upward to 3.7-3.9 million ounces, from the earlier estimate of 3.3-3.7 million ounces.

Nickel Production Trends

Nickel output increased 6% to 9,900 tons during the quarter, driven by operational improvements at the Barro Alto plant in Brazil. Year-to-date nickel production reached 28,900 tons, up 2%.

The company raised its full-year nickel production guidance to 38,000-39,000 tons, up from its earlier range of 36,000-38,000 tons.

Outlook

Anglo American’s diversified portfolio continues to offset challenges in copper production with strong performance in nickel and PGMs. While facing difficulties in its copper operations, the upward revisions in nickel and PGM guidance underscore the company’s adaptability and operational resilience.

NPI–Class I Nickel Spread Narrows as Metal Oversupply Pressures Prices

Nickel cathode

NPI–class I nickel spread narrowed sharply in March as persistent oversupply in the class I nickel market pushed metal prices lower, while nickel pig iron prices stayed supported by elevated production costs. The average spread fell to $2,975/t in March, down from the 2025 annual average of $3,696/t.

The narrower NPI–class I nickel spread shows how differently the two nickel markets are behaving. Class I nickel remains under pressure from high exchange stocks and weak absorption from battery and alloy users. NPI, by contrast, is being held up by Indonesian ore costs and a firmer production cost floor.

The current spread also discourages additional class I output from NPI conversion. Estimated conversion costs from NPI to class I nickel remain around $4,000/t, meaning producers using NPI as feedstock would face negative margins at current price levels.

This creates an important signal for the nickel supply chain. Oversupply is still weighing on refined metal, but high feedstock and processing costs are preventing prices from falling evenly across all nickel products.

Class I Nickel Oversupply Keeps Metal Prices Under Pressure

Class I nickel oversupply remains the main reason behind the compressed spread. London Metal Exchange nickel stocks reached 289,506t on 26 February, the highest level since May 2018.

Ample exchange inventory has pressured class I nickel prices and opened an import arbitrage window into China. China’s nickel imports rose by 18% in January-February as lower overseas prices made imported metal more attractive.

However, end-user demand has not been strong enough to absorb the surplus. Battery and alloy-sector consumption remained insufficient to clear the additional metal units, pushing Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel stocks higher.

SHFE nickel inventories rose to 65,764t on 10 April from 45,544t on 9 January. This inventory build shows that imports and domestic availability are running ahead of immediate consumption.

The oversupply problem is structural in the near term. New class I capacity has continued to emerge, while demand from stainless steel, batteries and specialty alloys has not grown fast enough to rebalance the market.

The NPI conversion route is therefore unattractive. When the NPI–class I nickel spread sits below conversion cost, producers have little incentive to turn NPI into refined metal. This helps prevent additional supply from that route, but it does not immediately remove existing class I oversupply.

NPI prices have been more resilient because they are tied closely to Indonesian ore economics. Indonesian nickel ore prices remain elevated and continue to trade above the government-mandated price floor.

Concerns over tight ore availability have supported feedstock values. This has limited NPI producers’ willingness to cut prices, even though stainless steel demand remains only average.

That cost floor is important. NPI is not rising because downstream demand is exceptionally strong. It is holding because ore, mining quotas and Indonesian pricing policy are preventing a deeper fall.

The result is a distorted market structure. Class I nickel is being pulled down by inventory pressure, while NPI is being supported by feedstock costs. This explains why the spread has narrowed despite weak overall nickel sentiment.

MHP and HPAL Costs Could Rebuild the Spread Over Time

Mixed hydroxide precipitate is becoming the more important cost driver for future class I nickel production. Much of the newly added class I capacity relies on MHP feedstock rather than NPI.

Integrated producers with their own Indonesian MHP capacity have a cost advantage. Their MHP production costs are estimated at around $13,000/t in nickel metal equivalent, with conversion costs from MHP to metal at roughly $3,000/t.

This places the total cost of class I production through the MHP route at about $16,000/t. That cost base can still support production for integrated operators, but it leaves less room for producers relying on third-party MHP.

The market problem is that MHP supply is not sufficient to meet all feedstock requirements for new class I capacity. This creates competition for MHP units and limits how much low-cost refined nickel can be produced through this route.

Cost pressure is also rising across HPAL operations. Middle East tensions have tightened sulphur availability and lifted sulphur prices, which directly affects MHP producers that rely on sulphuric acid-intensive processing.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid are central to HPAL economics. Any disruption to sulphur flows can raise operating costs, reduce margins or force producers to curtail output if acid availability becomes constrained.

Indonesia’s revised nickel ore pricing formula adds another layer of pressure. The new formula is expected to have a greater impact on ore consumed by HPAL projects than on ore used by rotary kiln electric furnace operations.

This is because HPAL ore often trades closer to official pricing levels, while RKEF ore used for NPI already trades at premiums well above the benchmark. As a result, HPAL producers may feel the revised HPM framework more directly.

Higher ore prices and higher taxes could lift MHP production costs. That would eventually raise the cost floor for class I nickel produced through the MHP route, especially for integrated producers that had previously enjoyed lower feedstock costs.

This cost inflation may support class I nickel prices over time. While current oversupply is weighing on metal values, producers cannot keep adding supply indefinitely if feedstock and conversion costs rise.

NPI prices are also likely to remain anchored by costs. Indonesian ore tightness, quota uncertainty and pricing reforms should continue to support NPI even if stainless steel demand stays moderate.

As MHP costs rise and NPI prices remain cost-supported, the NPI–class I nickel spread may widen back toward the $3,500-4,000/t range over time. That would restore a more normal relationship between feedstock products and refined metal.

However, the timing depends on inventory absorption. Class I nickel prices will struggle to recover strongly until exchange stocks stop rising and downstream demand improves.

For battery supply chains, the key issue is cost pass-through. If MHP and HPAL costs rise while class I prices remain weak, margins across nickel sulphate and cathode material chains could tighten.

For stainless steel producers, NPI resilience means raw material costs may remain sticky even without strong demand. This could limit margin recovery if finished stainless prices do not rise in parallel.

The nickel market is therefore entering a complex adjustment phase. Oversupply is pushing refined metal lower, while policy, ore availability, sulphur costs and HPAL economics are raising the cost floor beneath intermediate products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The narrowing NPI–class I nickel spread is not a sign of healthy convergence. It reflects class I oversupply on one side and cost-protected NPI on the other. The next shift will likely come from rising HPAL and MHP costs, not from a sudden recovery in nickel demand.

Eramet Weda Bay Nickel Faces Care and Maintenance Risk as RKAB Quota Tightens

Eramet - Nickel

Eramet Weda Bay nickel operations face a potential care and maintenance move in May after Indonesia approved a sharply reduced 2026 nickel ore quota. The French mining group said PT Weda Bay Nickel received an initial RKAB permit covering only 12mn wet metric tonnes of nickel ore production and sales.

The Eramet Weda Bay nickel quota is more than 70% below last year’s authorised level. PT WBN initially received 32mn wmt in 2025, later revised up to 42mn wmt.

Eramet has requested an upward revision to the 2026 permit. The company said the current quota will be exhausted by the middle of next month, making the permit decision the most important near-term issue for its nickel business.

The initial 12mn wmt permit includes 3mn wmt for internal use. This leaves Eramet’s external sales target at only 9mn wmt for 2026, well below the level implied by the mine’s operating capacity.

Indonesia’s RKAB Limits Threaten Ore Supply and NPI Continuity

PT Weda Bay Nickel is preparing to enter care and maintenance if the quota is not increased. Eramet said its nickel pig iron plant will continue operating using ore stocks, but the mining restriction creates clear supply risk.

The permit issue matters because Weda Bay is a key ore supplier inside Indonesia’s nickel ecosystem. Its saprolite ore supports nickel pig iron and stainless steel production, while limonite ore feeds high-pressure acid leach plants producing battery intermediates.

PT WBN delivered strong first-quarter output before the quota risk escalated. Marketable nickel ore production rose by 10% on the year to 10mn wmt.

External ore sales climbed by 54% to 8.3mn wmt. Saprolite sales increased by 27% to 4.8mn wmt, while limonite sales jumped by 118% to 3.6mn wmt.

The limonite increase was driven by stronger demand from HPAL plants at the Indonesia Weda Bay Industrial Park. Internal ore consumption for Eramet’s NPI plant was 1mn wmt during the quarter.

Strong sales partly reflected a weak comparison with early 2025, when IWIP plants were destocking after ending 2024 with high inventories. Still, the result shows that downstream demand remains firm.

PT WBN also continued to benefit from premiums of more than 100% above Indonesia’s benchmark floor price for high-grade saprolite. This reflected tight domestic ore supply and stronger competition for available material.

Nickel Market Rebalancing Depends on Permits, Sulphur and Ore Costs

Eramet’s nickel ferro-alloy production was broadly stable in the first quarter. Output reached 9,000t of nickel, down only 1% from a year earlier.

Adjusted nickel turnover, excluding New Caledonia’s Societe Le Nickel, rose by 43% to €163mn. Eramet’s share of PT WBN turnover, excluding its offtake contract, increased by 59% to €116mn.

The company said first-quarter market conditions were supportive. The average London Metal Exchange nickel price rose by 12% on the year to $17,362/t, driven partly by uncertainty over Indonesian ore supply.

Global primary nickel demand rose by 3% to 900,000t in the first quarter. Stainless steel, batteries and aerospace supported consumption.

Global primary nickel production fell by 3%, although the market remained in a modest surplus. Eramet said the nickel market could gradually rebalance over the rest of the year.

Restricted Indonesian mine permits are one reason. Sulphur supply problems are another, because they are raising costs for HPAL producers that depend on sulphuric acid or sulphur feedstock.

PT WBN’s production costs are expected to rise from 2025 levels. Eramet cited authorised volume limits, mining plan adjustments and higher fuel prices.

Indonesia’s revised mineral benchmark formula could also reshape ore economics. The formula, effective from mid-April, now includes cobalt and other contained metals in ore valuation.

This change could increase costs for HPAL feedstock and alter the economics of limonite supply. It also strengthens the government’s ability to capture more value from contained metals in nickel ore.

For Eramet Weda Bay nickel operations, the quota decision will determine whether strong first-quarter performance can continue. Without a higher RKAB, the mine faces a sudden operating constraint despite firm downstream demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Eramet Weda Bay nickel is becoming a test case for Indonesia’s tighter control over ore supply. If the RKAB quota is not revised, the impact will reach beyond one mine and reinforce cost pressure across NPI, HPAL and battery-linked nickel supply chains.

Vale Nickel Production 2025 Set to Rise with Second Furnace at Onca Puma

Vale

Vale nickel production 2025 is expected to increase significantly as the Brazilian miner nears completion of a second furnace at its Onca Puma site. The new furnace, 85% complete, is set to launch in Q2 2025 and will support Vale’s plan to produce 160,000–175,000 metric tonnes (t) of nickel this year. The company reported a strong first quarter with 43,900t, up 11% year over year.

Canadian Plants and Furnace Upgrades Drive Early Gains

Vale attributed its first-quarter output growth to high performance from its Canadian operations and the rebuilt furnace at Onca Puma. The nickel division rebounded after a 3% drop in 2024 production, which ended at 160,000t. In 2023, Vale had produced 165,000t. The ongoing infrastructure improvements signal renewed momentum for the company’s nickel strategy.

Meanwhile, Vale continues to implement upgrades across its global operations. Although maintenance is scheduled for Q3 at the Sunbury complex in Canada, overall output for Vale nickel production 2025 is still projected to rise. These efforts reflect Vale’s push to strengthen its position as a major supplier in the energy transition metals market.

Strategic Positioning in Global Nickel Supply Chain

Nickel is a core material for electric vehicle batteries, stainless steel, and energy storage. Vale’s ramp-up supports global supply at a time of fluctuating market dynamics and growing demand. The Onca Puma project’s expansion and Canadian consistency illustrate Vale’s resilience in managing both output and maintenance cycles effectively.

The company’s projected range for Vale nickel production 2025 signals investor confidence and growing alignment with energy transition goals. With global battery production rising, stable supply from a diversified portfolio becomes increasingly valuable.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s investment in its Onca Puma furnace positions it to capture rising nickel demand in 2025. As electrification accelerates, integrated producers with resilient infrastructure will shape the strategic metals landscape.

Vale Thompson Nickel Belt Restructuring Secures New Capital for Canadian Nickel Supply

Vale Base Metals

Vale Thompson Nickel Belt restructuring marks a strategic move to keep one of Canada’s established nickel districts operating while reducing Vale’s direct exposure. Vale Base Metals has agreed to form a consortium for its Thompson nickel operations following a strategic review.

Vale Thompson Nickel Belt assets will receive up to $200mn in partner commitments to support long-term sustainability. Vale will retain an 18.9% interest in the consortium, while also securing a nickel concentrate offtake agreement.

Vale Thompson Nickel Belt restructuring matters because western buyers are paying closer attention to non-Indonesian nickel supply, origin transparency and long-term feedstock security. Thompson offers a Canadian source of nickel concentrate at a time when the market remains heavily influenced by Indonesian production growth.

The consortium is expected to close by the end of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals. Vale did not name the consortium partners.

Thompson Deal Preserves Exposure While Reducing Operating Risk

The new structure suggests Vale wants to keep Thompson in production without carrying the full capital and operating burden alone. The company is reducing direct exposure but preserving strategic access through its retained stake and concentrate offtake.

This matters because Thompson has faced operational pressure. Production at the mine fell by 66.7% on the year to 12,000t in the first quarter after a pipeline blockage was aggravated by poor weather.

The consortium model could help stabilise the asset if new partners bring capital, operational focus and a longer-term investment plan. For a mature nickel operation, sustaining capital and reliability upgrades can be as important as headline resource size.

The concentrate offtake agreement is equally important. It gives Vale continued access to material while allowing outside capital to support the mine’s future.

For western nickel supply chains, Thompson has strategic relevance beyond its near-term production volume. Non-Indonesian nickel units are becoming more valuable for buyers seeking diversified supply, lower geopolitical concentration and clearer provenance.

This is especially relevant for stainless steel, alloy, battery and defence-linked customers that want alternatives to Indonesia-dominated supply growth. Canadian nickel concentrate can help support that diversification if the operation remains stable.

Strong Copper and Nickel Prices Lift Vale Base Metals Earnings

The Thompson restructuring came as Vale Base Metals reported a sharp improvement in first-quarter earnings. Net revenue rose by 37% on the year to $2.38bn, while adjusted Ebitda more than doubled to $1.2bn from $554mn.

Nickel earnings recovered strongly. Adjusted nickel Ebitda climbed to $277mn from $41mn a year earlier, supported by higher realised prices, stronger sales, lower unit costs and better by-product credits.

Vale’s average realised nickel price rose by 6% to $17,015/t. Nickel sales volumes increased by 15% to 45,000t.

Cost improvements at Sudbury, Voisey’s Bay and Long Harbour also supported the nickel result. This shows that Vale’s Canadian nickel platform still has earnings leverage when operating performance improves and prices firm.

Copper delivered an even stronger contribution. Copper-adjusted Ebitda rose by 74% year on year to $949mn in the first quarter.

Vale’s realised copper price jumped by 48% to $13,143/t, while copper sales volumes rose by 18% to 72,000t. Stronger gold by-product revenues and improved performance at Sossego also supported the result.

The company increased copper sustaining capital expenditure by 54% to $83mn, with spending on the Bacaba copper project a key driver. Total copper capex, including growth spending, rose by 56% to $89mn.

At group level, Vale’s adjusted Ebitda rose by 23% to $3.83bn. The result shows how stronger copper and nickel prices can quickly improve earnings when production, sales and by-product credits align.

For Vale, the strategic message is clear. Copper provides growth and margin strength, while nickel requires selective restructuring, cost discipline and stronger asset-level sustainability.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s Thompson move shows that western nickel supply will increasingly depend on partnership models, not only mine ownership. The asset’s value lies in preserving Canadian concentrate supply at a time when buyers want alternatives to Indonesian nickel dominance.

Nornickel Reports Increase in Nickel Output for Q2 2024

Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), the Russian multi-metals mining giant, has reported a significant year-on-year increase in its nickel production for the second quarter of 2024. This rise is primarily attributed to increased ore output from its mining assets and higher production volumes of premium-grade nickel, which is crucial for the electroplating and superalloys sectors.

From April to June, Nornickel's nickel production surged by 8.16% compared to the previous year, reaching a total of 48,304 tonnes. This marks a 15% increase from the first quarter, a growth driven by the company's implementation of an operational efficiency program.

First Half of 2024 Sees Slight Decline

Despite the robust performance in the second quarter, the first half of 2024 saw a slight decline in nickel production. The total output for the first six months fell by 1% year-on-year to 90,236 tonnes. This decrease was largely due to the scheduled repairs of the flash smelting furnace No. 2 at the Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant.

Shifting Market Focus

In response to the declining demand for its traditional cathode products, Nornickel is exploring integration opportunities with the electric vehicle (EV) battery market in Asia. The company is also increasing its focus on high-purity nickel segments. However, nickel products from its Harjavalta refinery face a potential suspension from the London Metal Exchange (LME) in October due to ESG compliance issues, complicating the market landscape.

Copper and PGM Production

Nornickel's copper production also saw a sharp increase in the second quarter. Through a process optimization program at its Norilsk Division copper plant, the company produced 108,812 tonnes of copper, marking a 14.7% rise from the same period in 2023. The first half of 2024 showed a 7% increase, reaching 218,575 tonnes.

Conversely, the production of platinum group metals (PGMs) experienced a downturn. Changes in the PGM ratio of processed raw materials led to a 3.42% drop in palladium output, totaling 735,000 ounces, and a 5.06% decline in platinum output, totaling 178,000 ounces in the second quarter. For the first half of the year, palladium production fell by 0.1% to 1.48 million ounces, while platinum output decreased by 3% to 356,000 ounces.

Future Projections

Nornickel has maintained its annual production guidance for 2024, expecting to produce between 184,000 and 194,000 tonnes of finished nickel. The company’s guidance for copper remains unchanged at 334,000 to 354,000 tonnes, and for platinum and palladium at 567,000 to 605,000 ounces and 2.30 to 2.45 million ounces, respectively.

Antam Nickel Ore Output Surges as Indonesia’s Domestic Demand Drives Growth

Antam Nickel

Antam nickel ore output surged in 2025 to its highest level in more than a decade. The state-controlled miner produced 16.1mn wet metric tonnes of nickel ore. That was up 62pc from the previous year. As a result, Antam nickel ore output now reflects the strength of Indonesian domestic nickel demand.

The company’s sales performance was even stronger. Nickel ore sales rose 75pc year on year to 14.6mn wet metric tonnes. This shows that domestic downstream buyers absorbed much of the additional supply. Therefore, Indonesia nickel ore production continues to benefit from the country’s internal processing expansion.

This matters because Antam’s ore supports more than one value chain. Its nickel ore feeds domestic class two nickel production and the company’s own ferronickel operations at Kolaka. Consequently, Antam nickel ore output remains important to both external downstream users and its internal processing strategy.

Indonesian Domestic Nickel Demand Is Reshaping Antam’s Business Mix

Indonesian domestic nickel demand is clearly driving Antam’s ore growth. The company’s production surge shows how strongly local processors continue to pull feedstock into the domestic market. This supports Indonesia’s long-term policy of deeper downstream integration. As a result, ore production is becoming more strategically valuable than before.

However, Antam’s ferronickel business moved in the opposite direction. Ferronickel output fell 20pc to 16,064t in nickel metal equivalent. Sales almost halved to 10,528t in nickel over the same period. Therefore, Antam is seeing a widening gap between ore strength and ferronickel weakness.

The company said rule changes in minimum sales pricing largely caused that decline. That means the problem was not simply demand destruction. Instead, market rules affected the economics of ferronickel sales more directly. Meanwhile, all ferronickel sales were exported, mainly to South Korea, India, and China.

Antam Battery Ecosystem Project Adds a New Strategic Layer

The Antam battery ecosystem project gives the company a stronger long-term growth story. Its joint venture with CATL began construction in the fourth quarter of 2025. That project aligns with Indonesia’s ambition to build a full downstream EV battery chain. Consequently, Antam is linking ore production more directly to higher-value battery materials.

This development matters because it expands Antam’s role beyond mining and traditional nickel products. The company is now tied more closely to Indonesia’s battery industrialization strategy. That could improve its strategic relevance even if ferronickel remains under pressure. Therefore, the Antam battery ecosystem project may become more important than short-term alloy sales.

The broader message is clear. Antam nickel ore output is rising because Indonesia’s downstream nickel model still demands more feedstock. At the same time, product mix and pricing rules are shifting value across the chain. As a result, Antam’s future may depend more on ore and battery exposure than on ferronickel alone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Antam’s results show how Indonesia’s nickel strategy is rewarding upstream ore suppliers tied to domestic processing. The weakness in ferronickel also shows that not every downstream segment benefits equally. If the battery ecosystem expands as planned, Antam could become even more central to Indonesia’s next nickel phase.

Nickel Production Halted at Ambatovy Plant Following Pipeline Damage

Sumitomo Nickel

Nickel and cobalt production at Madagascar's Ambatovy plant has been suspended after damage to a slurry pipeline, a crucial component for transporting ore from the mine to the refinery. The suspension, announced by the plant’s majority owner, Japanese trading group Sumitomo, comes as a setback for one of the few remaining active producers of nickel briquettes.

Damage Sparks Concerns Over Ambatovy's Viability

On September 25, Sumitomo revealed that the pipeline damage led to an ore discharge, prompting the decision to halt operations. While there were no injuries reported, an investigation is underway to determine the cause of the incident. The disruption has raised concerns, particularly as Ambatovy is already grappling with high production costs and market pressures.

Ambatovy is one of the few facilities still capable of producing nickel briquettes, a key form of refined nickel used in various industries. With BHP no longer actively producing briquettes and Russia's Norilsk Nickel resuming production at its Harjavalta refinery after a temporary suspension by the London Metal Exchange, the global supply chain has faced volatility. However, trading firms report that the ban on Norilsk's production has been lifted, and output is ramping up, offering some relief to the market.

Despite this, the long-term future of Ambatovy remains uncertain. Trading companies have pointed out that the plant's high production costs significantly exceed current benchmark nickel prices, by as much as $10,000 per tonne, raising questions about its economic viability. "Sumitomo must be considering the mounting losses right now," a trading source remarked. "They have a reputation for being slow decision-makers, likely hesitating to halt production because they could absorb the losses against profits elsewhere."

The financial challenges facing the project have been underscored by a recent debt restructuring plan filed in a London court, as confirmed by Sumitomo Metals Mining representatives. This move suggests that the company is actively seeking solutions to mitigate the financial strain caused by declining nickel prices and operational inefficiencies.

In terms of output, Ambatovy's nickel production for April to June was around 8,000 tonnes, marking a 20% decline from the same period last year. The suspension of production due to the pipeline damage adds to existing concerns over the plant's future, and it remains to be seen how Sumitomo will navigate these mounting challenges.