Greenland Molybdenum Supply Deal with Cogne Targets European Steel Markets

Greenland

Greenland molybdenum supply deal negotiations advanced as Greenland Resources signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Italian specialty steel manufacturer Cogne Acciai Speciali. The potential Greenland molybdenum supply agreement covers ferro-molybdenum and molybdenum oxide sourced from the company's $820 million Malmbjerg project, positioning Greenland Resources to address European Union molybdenum supply security while building strategic partnerships across specialty steel manufacturing.

Malmbjerg Project Resources Support Long-Term Supply Commitments

Greenland molybdenum supply capabilities stem from substantial mineral reserves at the Malmbjerg project containing 245 million metric tonnes of molybdenum disulphide. The reserves maintain an average grade of 0.176% and are expected to yield 571 million pounds (259,000 tonnes) of contained molybdenum metal. These resource volumes position Malmbjerg to supply approximately 25% of European Union molybdenum demand.

Meanwhile, the project's strategic importance reflects the EU's position as the world's second-largest molybdenum consumer without domestic mining operations. This supply gap creates significant opportunities for Greenland Resources to establish long-term customer relationships with European manufacturers. The company also plans to market magnesium as a by-product, diversifying revenue streams while maximizing resource utilization efficiency.

Strategic Processing Partnership Enables Market Entry

However, the molybdenum supply chain requires sophisticated processing capabilities through Greenland Resources' tolling agreement with Molymet Belgium. The Belgian molybdenum converter will process concentrates from Malmbjerg into ferro-molybdenum and molybdenum oxide products suitable for specialty steel applications. This partnership arrangement provides access to established European processing infrastructure without requiring substantial capital investments.

Therefore, the Cogne agreement follows Greenland Resources' successful long-term contract with stainless steel producer Outokumpu for 8 million pounds annually of molybdenum oxide. The Outokumpu deal represents half of that company's annual molybdenum requirements, demonstrating market validation for Malmbjerg's production capacity. Multiple customer agreements reduce concentration risk while establishing predictable revenue foundations.

Government Approval Remains Critical for Project Development

Furthermore, Greenland Resources continues pursuing final exploitation license approval from the Greenland government following receipt of draft license revisions in April. Government approval represents the final regulatory hurdle before commencing mining activities at Malmbjerg. The licensing process reflects Greenland's careful approach to balancing resource development with environmental protection and community interests.

As a result, successful government approval would unlock substantial European molybdenum supply chain benefits while establishing Greenland as a strategic critical minerals producer. The project's scale and customer commitments demonstrate commercial viability that supports both Greenlandic economic development and European industrial supply security. Strategic partnerships with established processors and customers create integrated value chains from mining through end-use applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Greenland Resources' molybdenum supply agreements exemplify how emerging mining jurisdictions can address critical European industrial supply gaps through strategic partnerships and processing arrangements. The Malmbjerg project's potential to supply 25% of EU molybdenum demand represents a significant geopolitical shift toward Arctic resource development, particularly important as European manufacturers seek supply chain diversification away from traditional sources amid increasing trade tensions.

EU CBAM Extension Could Cover 200 More Steel and Aluminium Products

CBAM

EU CBAM extension plans could widen the carbon border adjustment mechanism to around 200 additional downstream products that use significant volumes of steel and aluminium. The proposal goes beyond the European Commission’s earlier plan covering 180 product codes.

EU CBAM extension reflects growing concern that carbon leakage could shift from raw materials into manufactured goods. If downstream products remain outside the mechanism, overseas producers using higher-carbon steel or aluminium could gain a cost advantage over European manufacturers.

EU CBAM extension would therefore move the system deeper into industrial supply chains. The impact could reach fabricated steel products, aluminium-intensive components and other manufactured goods that compete directly with EU-made products.

The Council presidency also wants the list of covered customs codes to remain flexible, allowing future additions or adjustments as trade patterns and circumvention risks evolve.

Downstream Expansion Targets Carbon Leakage Beyond Raw Materials

CBAM initially focused mainly on carbon-intensive upstream materials, including iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilizers, electricity and hydrogen.

The next phase targets a structural weakness in that model. European manufacturers can face higher carbon costs when using domestically produced steel or aluminium, while competing imported finished products may avoid equivalent charges.

Extending CBAM downstream aims to close that gap. It would place more imported products under carbon-cost rules based on the emissions embedded in their metal content and production.

For European steel and aluminium producers, the change could strengthen demand for regional low-carbon material. Downstream manufacturers may have less incentive to substitute EU metal-intensive products with cheaper imports produced under weaker carbon constraints.

But the administrative burden could rise. Importers and overseas manufacturers will need more detailed emissions data, product classifications and supply-chain documentation.

The Council presidency is therefore trying to balance wider emissions coverage with manageable reporting requirements. Three medical-use customs codes have been proposed for removal from the expanded list, reflecting concerns over unnecessary complexity in sensitive sectors.

Aluminium and Steel Supply Chains Face Wider Compliance Pressure

The expansion could have important consequences for global metals trade. Exporters of fabricated steel and aluminium products into Europe may increasingly need to demonstrate embedded emissions and product origin.

This could influence sourcing decisions far beyond primary metal. Extrusions, fabricated components, steel structures and other downstream goods may face stronger pressure to use lower-carbon feedstock.

For aluminium producers, access to renewable electricity and recycled metal could become more valuable. For steelmakers, electric arc furnace production, scrap use and lower-carbon iron inputs could improve competitiveness.

The proposal also strengthens the role of customs classification. A continuously adjustable list of CN codes would allow the EU to respond as companies change product routes or trade patterns to avoid carbon costs.

That flexibility could make CBAM more effective, but it also increases regulatory uncertainty for exporters. Companies selling into Europe will need to track not only carbon prices but also changing product coverage.

The Council has broadly supported extending CBAM to more downstream products, although some member states have argued for a narrower approach. The final scope will therefore depend on negotiations between EU institutions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CBAM is evolving from a raw-material carbon mechanism into a wider industrial trade tool. For steel and aluminium suppliers, competitiveness will increasingly depend on proving low-carbon production across the entire downstream value chain.

EU CBAM Changes Target Downstream Products and Anti-Circumvention Rules

EU finance ministers, CBAM

EU CBAM changes are moving toward a broader framework covering more downstream products while introducing stronger anti-circumvention measures. EU finance ministers are seeking a common position before negotiations with the European Parliament.

EU CBAM changes would expand the mechanism beyond its original focus on carbon-intensive basic materials. This could bring more manufactured products containing steel and aluminium into the system and increase compliance requirements across international supply chains.

EU CBAM changes also address one of the mechanism’s most controversial questions: whether the European Commission should be able to temporarily suspend CBAM for selected goods when extraordinary market conditions emerge.

Member states have pushed for tighter limits on that power. The latest compromise would establish specific conditions before any temporary suspension could be considered.

Downstream Expansion Tightens Carbon Leakage Protection

Extending CBAM deeper into downstream products is intended to reduce the risk that manufacturers simply relocate carbon-intensive production outside the EU and export finished goods back into the bloc.

This issue becomes more important as carbon costs increase for European steel and aluminium producers. If primary materials face carbon charges but imported manufactured products do not, downstream European manufacturers can face a competitive disadvantage.

Broader product coverage would therefore extend carbon accounting further into industrial supply chains. Exporters could increasingly need to demonstrate not only product origin but also the emissions embedded in metal-intensive manufactured goods.

Anti-circumvention measures are equally important. Companies could otherwise modify product classifications, processing routes or trade structures to reduce CBAM exposure.

For steel and aluminium markets, this means carbon compliance is gradually becoming part of ordinary procurement. Product classification, material origin and embedded emissions will increasingly influence access to the European market.

The changes could also strengthen demand for lower-carbon metals. Producers using recycled aluminium, scrap-based steel or lower-emission primary production may gain a stronger competitive position as carbon costs move downstream.

Suspension Rules Expose Cost Versus Competitiveness Tension

The proposed suspension mechanism has created disagreement among member states because broad exemptions could weaken CBAM’s effectiveness.

The latest compromise would narrow the conditions under which the European Commission could temporarily remove products from the mechanism.

One proposed trigger would require non-CBAM-related import prices to rise by more than 50% compared with the average price of the same goods during the previous 10 years. The increase would also need to persist for at least six months.

This approach attempts to reserve suspension for exceptional market disruptions rather than normal price volatility.

The debate has become particularly relevant for sectors where carbon costs could combine with external supply shocks to create sharp price increases. Fertilizers are one example, with policymakers already considering measures to protect users from excessive cost pressure.

The larger industrial question remains unresolved. CBAM is designed to protect European decarbonisation and prevent carbon leakage, but excessively high input costs can also damage the competitiveness of EU manufacturers.

Finance ministers are therefore trying to create an emergency valve without weakening the broader carbon border system.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CBAM is evolving from a carbon levy on basic materials into a wider industrial trade regime. The decisive issue will be whether Europe can prevent circumvention without creating carbon costs so high that downstream manufacturing itself moves outside the bloc.

Volkswagen Challenges EU Tariffs on Chinese EVs Following Tesla Reduction

Volkswagen Group has intensified its appeal to the European Commission to reduce tariffs on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) manufactured by European automakers in China. This move comes in the wake of the commission's decision to lower the tariff rate for U.S. electric vehicle (EV) giant Tesla to 9 percent.

On Thursday, the European Commission proposed definitive countervailing duties on BEV imports from China, following the imposition of provisional duties on July 5. The newly proposed duties range from 17 percent for China's leading EV producer BYD to 36.3 percent for the state-owned automaker SAIC, with Tesla benefiting from a notably lower rate of 9 percent "at this stage."

For non-sampled BEV manufacturers, the commission set a weighted average duty at 20.8 percent, while non-cooperating companies, which include Volkswagen Group, are facing a significantly higher duty of 37.6 percent. All these duties are to be added on top of an existing 10 percent duty on Chinese-made EVs.

"The Volkswagen Group continues to find it incomprehensible that Chinese manufacturers are subject to lower countervailing duties than European manufacturers," a company spokesperson told Metalnomist. The spokesperson further criticized the commission for not thoroughly reviewing the previous investigation and hinted at potential further actions, stating, "We will examine and evaluate the EU Commission's explanation very carefully. And of course, we will also reserve the right to take further steps in the proceedings."

Earlier this month, China also expressed its discontent with the tariffs, filing a case at the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Stakeholders have until August 30 to submit feedback to the commission.

Volkswagen declined to comment on reports that the tariff on their Cupra Tavascan EV model had been reduced to 21.3 percent from 37.6 percent.

China Aluminium Flat-Rolled Products Review Tests EU Trade Defence Balance

Aluminium Ingots

China aluminium flat-rolled products are back under EU scrutiny after the European Commission opened a partial interim review of anti-dumping measures on selected imports. The review follows a request from PalNet, an air cargo products manufacturer that says specific aluminium sheets used in aviation cargo equipment cannot be sourced adequately outside China.

The case focuses on aluminium sheets made from 7000-series alloys. These materials are used to manufacture unit load devices, or ULDs, for the civil aviation and air cargo sectors. PalNet argues that these products must meet strict sector-specific requirements and are not currently produced in sufficient volumes within the EU or by alternative non-Chinese suppliers.

The review highlights a sensitive industrial policy issue for Europe. Anti-dumping duties are designed to protect domestic producers from unfairly priced imports. However, when specialised downstream manufacturers depend on materials that are not readily available inside the bloc, trade defence measures can create unintended supply-chain pressure.

Aviation Supply Chains Depend on Narrow Aluminium Specifications

The aluminium 7000-series sheets at the centre of the case serve a specialised market. ULD manufacturing requires lightweight, high-strength materials that can meet aviation and air cargo performance rules. These requirements narrow the list of qualified suppliers and make substitution difficult.

PalNet claims the existing EU anti-dumping duties on China aluminium flat-rolled products could threaten the survival of the only Union-based ULD manufacturer. That claim places the Commission in a difficult position. It must weigh upstream trade protection against downstream industrial continuity.

The issue is not simply about import prices. It is about whether Europe can maintain manufacturing capability in a niche aviation supply chain while also enforcing trade measures against Chinese aluminium products. If local supply is unavailable or insufficient, duties may raise costs without creating meaningful European replacement capacity.

EU Review Could Signal a More Targeted Approach to Aluminium Duties

The partial interim review could lead to a narrower interpretation of existing measures if the Commission accepts PalNet’s arguments. The investigation is expected to conclude within 12 months, giving EU authorities time to assess supply availability, technical requirements, and the economic impact on downstream users.

The case may also become a reference point for other sectors that rely on highly specific aluminium products. Europe imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminium flat-rolled products in 2021, but industrial demand has become more complex as aviation, transport, defence, and energy-transition supply chains require specialised alloys.

For China aluminium flat-rolled products, the review does not signal a broad reversal of EU trade defence policy. Instead, it suggests Brussels may need more precise tools when a protected upstream category overlaps with materials that European manufacturers cannot source competitively or reliably elsewhere.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This review shows the limits of broad trade measures in specialised metal supply chains. Europe can protect aluminium producers, but it also needs enough flexibility to keep strategic downstream manufacturers alive.

GE Aerospace European Manufacturing Investment Expands Engine Production Capacity

GE Aerospace

GE Aerospace European manufacturing investment will strengthen the company’s engine production footprint across key European sites in 2026. The US aerospace manufacturer plans to invest €113 million, or about $130 million, to expand capacity and accelerate advanced manufacturing capabilities across the region.

The GE Aerospace European manufacturing investment will be concentrated mainly in Italy, which will receive €77 million. Poland will receive €15 million, the UK €10 million, the Czech Republic €8 million, and Romania €3 million.

The investment also reflects a wider aerospace supply chain challenge. GE plans to hire more than 1,000 workers across Europe this year as engine manufacturers compete for skilled labor, machining capacity, testing capability, and advanced production expertise.

Engine Test Cells and Machining Capacity Target Aerospace Bottlenecks

GE Aerospace will direct a large share of the spending toward state-of-the-art engine test cells, advanced machining equipment, additive manufacturing expansion, and facility upgrades. These areas are critical because modern aircraft engines depend on high-precision components, tight process control, and reliable testing capacity.

The GE Aerospace European manufacturing investment will support commercial narrowbody and widebody engine programs. It will also strengthen military engine programs, giving the company more flexibility across civil and defense aerospace demand.

This matters for metals and advanced materials supply chains because jet engine production relies on nickel superalloys, titanium alloys, precision castings, forged parts, coatings, and heat-resistant components. More machining and additive manufacturing capacity can increase demand for certified aerospace-grade feedstock and high-performance alloy parts.

European Expansion Aligns With Wider US Production Push

GE Aerospace’s European plan follows a larger investment program in the US. The company recently announced another €1 billion-equivalent spending plan for production plants and its supplier base this year, covering new equipment, infrastructure upgrades, expanded testing capacity, and retooling across 29 facilities in 17 US states.

A key part of the US investment will support upgraded high-pressure turbine blade capacity for LEAP engines. GE Aerospace produces LEAP engines through CFM International, its joint venture with France-based Safran Aircraft Engines.

Together, the US and European investments show that GE Aerospace is preparing for sustained engine demand and tighter aerospace supply chains. The strategy points to more capital spending on bottleneck processes such as turbine blades, machining, testing, additive manufacturing, and high-temperature engine components.

The Metalnomist Commentary

GE Aerospace’s investment is not just a capacity expansion. It is a signal that aerospace manufacturing competitiveness now depends on advanced equipment, skilled labor, and secure high-performance materials supply. For specialty metals suppliers, this reinforces the long-term opportunity in titanium, nickel superalloys, precision castings, and additive manufacturing feedstock.

EU CBAM Downstream Goods Expansion Targets Cars, Fridges and Components

EU CBAM

EU CBAM downstream goods coverage is set to expand from 1 January 2028 under a draft European Council compromise text. The proposal would apply the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to steel-intensive finished goods and components, including cars, washing machines, fridges and a wider range of downstream products.

The move marks a significant shift in Europe’s carbon trade policy. Until now, CBAM has focused mainly on basic materials and selected upstream products, but the new proposal would extend protection further along the industrial value chain.

EU CBAM downstream goods expansion directly addresses a long-standing concern in the steel market. Without downstream coverage, importers could bypass carbon costs by bringing in finished products or components instead of covered steel inputs.

Downstream Protection Becomes Central to Steel Competitiveness

Downstream protection has been strongly supported by parts of the European steel market, including distributors association Eurometal. The argument is straightforward: CBAM cannot protect European steel producers if foreign manufacturers can export carbon-intensive finished goods into the EU without equivalent carbon costs.

The proposed expansion would therefore widen the policy shield around European steel-intensive manufacturing. Cars, appliances, machinery parts and components all contain embedded steel, and their inclusion could reduce the risk of carbon leakage moving further down the value chain.

This matters for European industrial competitiveness. Steelmakers, processors, distributors and manufacturers are all exposed if carbon pricing raises domestic production costs while finished imports remain outside the mechanism.

Verification Capacity Remains a Key Implementation Risk

The draft text also points to possible agreements for mutual recognition of third-country accreditation bodies. This is designed to address a major implementation bottleneck: the limited number of recognised verification bodies able to carry out CBAM audits.

Only six verification bodies have so far been recognised, which may be insufficient for the number of steel mills and exporters seeking approval before the deadline. Without broader verification capacity, CBAM implementation could face delays, disputes and administrative pressure.

The European Parliament is also moving through its own process. Dutch centre-left member Mohammed Chahim has been appointed to draft the legal report, with an environment committee vote expected on 6 July and an indicative plenary vote scheduled for September. That process will shape parliament’s position before final negotiations with EU member states.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU CBAM downstream goods proposal shows that Brussels is moving from carbon accounting toward industrial border protection. If adopted, it could reshape trade flows for steel, appliances, automotive components and machinery by forcing carbon costs deeper into finished-product supply chains.

EU aluminium scrap export restriction moves toward spring 2026 adoption

EU aluminium scrap

The European Commission launched work on an EU aluminium scrap export restriction to curb “scrap leakage.” Maroš Šefčovič said the measure should arrive in spring 2026. The EU aluminium scrap export restriction aims to secure feedstock for recyclers and downstream producers.

European industry groups have pushed for action for years. However, the pressure intensified after Donald Trump imposed tariffs on primary aluminium imports. Many buyers may shift toward more scrap to reduce duty exposure. Therefore, European exporters could see stronger pull from overseas markets.

Aluminium scrap flows already show the scale of the challenge. The European Union and the United Kingdom exported around 1.6mn tonnes of aluminium scrap in 2024. That volume rose almost 25% versus 2022 and about 60% versus 2019. As a result, policymakers now frame scrap retention as an economic security issue.

Export tariffs or quotas look more likely than a ban

The final instrument is not yet defined. Officials and industry leaders say a full ban is unlikely. However, export tariffs or quotas could deliver immediate friction on outbound scrap.

Industry executives welcomed the signal from Brussels. Hydro extrusions head Paul Warton called the move encouraging. Meanwhile, European Aluminium director-general Paul Voss described current outflows as a market failure. Therefore, the consultation phase will test where the market sees real bottlenecks.

The commission will run a public consultation and gather evidence. That process will shape how any tariffs or quotas apply. Meanwhile, Aluminium Deutschland has also argued for tools that keep scrap in Europe. As a result, the EU aluminium scrap export restriction will likely focus on volumes and verification.

Scrap retention supports low-carbon aluminium and industrial resilience

Scrap retention directly supports lower-carbon aluminium production. Recyclers typically cut energy use versus primary routes, depending on power mix. Therefore, stable scrap supply improves decarbonisation pathways for European manufacturers.

Trade measures could also reshape pricing and contracts. Scrap exporters may face lower netbacks, while domestic buyers may gain supply security. However, overly strict rules could disrupt collection incentives and cross-border trade. As a result, policymakers must balance supply security with healthy recycling economics.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe will not decarbonise aluminium without reliable scrap access at scale. Meanwhile, tariffs and quotas must avoid weakening collection and sorting investment. Therefore, the best design links any restriction to reinvestment in recycling capacity.

EU Steel Demand Faces CBAM Risk Before 2028 Downstream Extension

EU Steel

EU steel demand could face significant pressure between 2026 and 2028 as carbon border adjustment costs apply to steel before they fully extend to downstream steel-consuming goods. European market participants warn that this timing gap could encourage imports of finished steel derivatives and weaken demand for EU-made steel.

The risk comes from the structure of CBAM implementation. Steel products will carry annual CBAM-related mark-ups before many downstream products are covered. As a result, imported finished goods with high steel content could become more competitive than goods manufactured inside the EU using CBAM-exposed steel.

EU steel demand is therefore exposed to a policy mismatch. CBAM aims to protect European industry from carbon leakage, but an uneven rollout could shift pressure from steel imports to finished product imports. That would create a new competitiveness problem for service centres, distributors, fabricators, machinery producers, vehicle parts makers, and appliance manufacturers.

Downstream Imports Could Undermine European Steel Consumption

Downstream steel-consuming goods are becoming a central concern for European industry. Product categories under discussion include car parts, specialised vehicle components, home appliances, machinery parts, and yellow goods. These sectors consume large volumes of steel and play a major role in sustaining regional industrial demand.

A proposed response is to create safeguards for selected downstream products before the 2028 CBAM expansion. The idea is to identify key HS codes for EU-manufactured products with high steel content and establish a quota system similar to existing steel safeguards.

This approach reflects a growing concern that steel protection alone may not protect the steel value chain. If downstream manufacturers lose competitiveness, EU steel demand could weaken even if direct steel imports fall. The strategic issue is not only steel trade, but the survival of manufacturing demand inside Europe.

Steel Safeguards and Weak Orders Add Pressure to the Market

The new version of EU steel safeguard measures is still expected to take effect in July. However, market participants remain concerned about World Trade Organisation compliance, especially as the EU negotiates free-trade agreements that may include country-specific quotas.

Market sentiment is already weak. European service centres reported soft order intake in February, with some seeing volumes 10-20pc lower than a year earlier. This points to sluggish industrial activity and limited confidence across the steel distribution chain.

Import reliance may also decline this year. Some service centres expect imported material to fall to around 20pc of flat steel use, compared with as much as 40pc in previous years. That shift may support EU mills, but it also reflects a more controlled and uncertain market environment rather than a broad recovery in demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU’s steel challenge is no longer only about protecting mills from imported coil. The real risk is demand leakage, where downstream production moves outside Europe before CBAM fully covers finished steel-intensive goods.

Nippon Kosice Mill Move Builds Direct European Steel Hub

U.S Steel, Kosice Mill

Nippon Kosice mill ownership is moving into a new phase as Nippon Steel begins the transition to take direct control of US Steel’s Slovakia-based Kosice operation. The move positions the plant as a key European operating hub inside Nippon’s global steel network.

Nippon Kosice mill control matters because the facility is one of Central Europe’s major integrated steel assets. It has crude steel capacity of 4.5mn t/yr and produced 3.2mn t in the 2025 fiscal year.

Nippon Kosice mill operations include three blast furnaces and downstream lines for hot rolling, cold rolling, annealing, tinplate, galvanizing and non-oriented electrical steel. That product range gives the site relevance across automotive, electrical, energy, packaging and construction supply chains.

The mill has been wholly owned by US Steel since 2000. US Steel became a subsidiary of Nippon in 2025, and the latest move will put Nippon in direct control of Kosice’s operations.

Direct Control Strengthens Technology, Sales and Procurement

Nippon’s direct ownership strategy is aimed at improving Kosice’s competitiveness through closer coordination on technology, sales and procurement. This is more than a corporate restructuring.

Integrated steel mills increasingly need stronger technical support to serve higher-grade markets. Customers in automotive, electrical equipment, construction and energy are demanding better surface quality, tighter tolerances, stronger coating performance and more advanced steel grades.

Kosice already has a broad industrial customer base across Europe. Direct integration with Nippon could help the mill improve product development and align more closely with global customers that require high-value steel.

Procurement is also important. European steelmakers face pressure from raw material costs, energy prices, carbon rules and import competition. A stronger link to Nippon’s global network could improve sourcing discipline and operating efficiency.

The plant’s non-oriented electrical steel capability is especially strategic. NOES is used in electric motors, generators and other equipment tied to electrification. As electric vehicles, industrial motors and grid equipment expand, electrical steel quality becomes increasingly important.

Tinplate and galvanizing lines also give Kosice exposure to packaging, automotive and construction demand. These downstream assets allow the mill to capture more value than a basic slab or hot-rolled coil producer.

Central and Eastern Europe Offer High-Grade Steel Growth

Nippon expects steel demand in Central and Eastern Europe to keep growing. That regional view is central to the Kosice strategy.

Manufacturing relocation into the region could support demand for higher-grade steel. Automotive suppliers, electrical equipment producers, energy companies and construction manufacturers all need reliable local steel supply.

Kosice is well placed geographically to serve those markets. Slovakia sits near important automotive and industrial clusters, giving the mill a logistics advantage for regional customers.

The move also gives Nippon a stronger European production base at a time when the steel industry is becoming more regional. Customers increasingly value supply security, shorter delivery routes and stable technical support.

For European steel supply chains, direct Nippon control could bring more disciplined investment and product strategy. The challenge will be upgrading competitiveness while managing Europe’s high energy costs and decarbonisation pressure.

Nippon’s high-value manufacturing technology could help Kosice move further into specialised grades. That would be important if regional demand shifts from commodity steel toward automotive sheet, electrical steel, coated products and precision cold-rolled materials.

The broader industrial meaning is clear. Nippon is not treating Kosice as a passive inherited asset from US Steel. It is positioning the mill as a strategic European platform.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nippon’s Kosice move shows that global steelmakers are concentrating control around regional hubs with high-grade potential. The key test will be whether Nippon can turn Kosice from a legacy integrated mill into a more competitive supplier for Europe’s automotive, electrical and energy transition markets.

EU presses China on critical mineral export licences as Europe warns of countermeasures

Critical Mineral Mine

EU presses China on critical mineral export licences as European manufacturers confront tighter supply chains. EU presses China on critical mineral export licences to accelerate approvals and reduce stock depletion in Europe. The European Union raised the issue at an industry meeting in Brussels.

Licensing bottlenecks hit defence and tech supply chains

China’s export controls have tightened flows of strategic materials since 2023. China began licensing for gallium and germanium in August 2023, then added antimony in September 2024. European Commission officials say applicants often must share sensitive end-use information.

Fewer licences have translated into lower exports and thinner inventories in Europe. China exported 7,520kg of germanium in January-September, down 71% from 2022. As a result, defence electronics and high-frequency communications face higher procurement risk.

Europe weighs countermeasures and diversification

Brussels is considering countermeasures if licensing delays deepen and disruptions spread. Denis Redonnet said the EU wants China to recalibrate the measures and speed processing. However, officials also frame the controls as a long-run industrial strategy, not a temporary dispute.

Europe is also building a broader response beyond trade policy alone. European Policy Centre chief Fabian Zuleeg said member states keep strong decision power across industry and diplomacy. Meanwhile, Brussels is exploring joint purchasing, stockpiling, and partnerships with non-EU mining countries.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Export licensing has become a front-line risk for Europe’s advanced manufacturing supply chains. Meanwhile, countermeasures will matter most if Europe pairs them with new refining capacity. Therefore, firms should model shortages alongside procurement and compliance requirements.

China Tungsten Exports Resume in Europe with Limited Volumes

China Tungsten

China tungsten exports restarted in European markets for the first time since February stoppages, though shipment volumes remain constrained at maximum 1 tonne per delivery. The resumption of China tungsten exports follows months of supply disruption caused by Chinese export controls announced February 4th, creating acute shortages for US and European buyers dependent on tungsten ingots for defense and industrial applications.

Small-Scale Shipments Signal Cautious Market Re-entry

China tungsten exports currently originate primarily from smaller state-owned manufacturers rather than major producers. Market sources report receiving new shipments in Rotterdam while additional material remains in transit to European destinations. However, volumes stay extremely limited compared to pre-control periods, reflecting continued regulatory uncertainty and cautious export policies from Chinese suppliers.

Meanwhile, delivery timelines extend significantly with current orders potentially shipping in July for immediate purchases. Traders quote current prices at $56 per kilogram on a cost-insurance-freight basis, representing substantial increases from historical levels. The extended lead times demonstrate supply chain disruptions that persist despite the resumption of limited export activities.

Export Controls Create Ongoing Market Uncertainty

However, tungsten metal products face complex regulatory environments despite not appearing on initial dual-use licensing lists. While other tungsten products required explicit export licenses from February 4th, tungsten ingots experienced de facto export halts through administrative restrictions. This regulatory ambiguity creates persistent uncertainty for international buyers seeking reliable supply sources.

Therefore, US and European buyers continue struggling to secure sufficient alternative tungsten sources outside Chinese production. The global tungsten market's dependence on Chinese suppliers becomes evident through months of supply shortages following export control implementation. Alternative sourcing efforts prove inadequate for meeting industrial demand requirements across defense and manufacturing sectors.

Tight European Market Maintains Price Pressure

Furthermore, European tungsten markets remain extremely tight with minimal warehouse inventory available for immediate delivery. Limited stock levels mean small resumptions in Chinese exports cannot immediately relieve price pressures or supply constraints. Market participants describe conditions as "total lottery" scenarios where securing tungsten ingots depends largely on timing and supplier relationships.

As a result, prompt tungsten prices maintain elevated levels despite the resumption of small-scale Chinese shipments. The constrained supply environment supports premium pricing while buyers compete for limited available material. Industrial consumers face continued procurement challenges that affect production planning and cost structures across tungsten-dependent manufacturing sectors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China's limited tungsten export resumption highlights the persistent vulnerability of global supply chains dependent on single-source suppliers for critical materials, particularly when geopolitical tensions influence trade policies. The constrained volumes and regulatory uncertainty demonstrate how export controls can fundamentally reshape commodity markets, forcing Western buyers to reassess supply security strategies for defense-critical materials like tungsten.

Australia EU Trade Deal Secures Critical Raw Materials Supply

Australia, EU trade

Australia EU trade deal negotiations have concluded after eight years, giving the EU a new framework to secure stable access to critical raw materials. The agreement targets minerals including lithium, bauxite, manganese, tantalum, nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth oxides.

The Australia EU trade deal will cut or remove bilateral tariffs on critical raw materials and value-added mineral products. This gives European manufacturers a more reliable supply route at a time when tariffs, export controls, and geopolitical pressure are reshaping global materials trade.

The agreement also strengthens Australia’s position as a preferred critical minerals partner for Europe. Australia produces around a third of global lithium and remains a major supplier of bauxite, iron ore, zirconium, and rare earth elements.

Critical Minerals Access Becomes Central to EU Trade Policy

The EU is using the Australia EU trade deal to reduce exposure to China-dominated supply chains and rising US tariff risks. The agreement reflects Brussels’ shift from traditional trade liberalisation toward strategic supply chain security.

Critical raw materials are now central to European industrial policy because they support batteries, electric vehicles, renewable energy, defence systems, aerospace, electronics, and advanced manufacturing. Stable access to lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, and rare earths will determine how quickly Europe can scale clean-energy manufacturing.

The deal also includes deeper co-operation on critical raw materials, including possible co-financing of key projects. This matters because Europe needs not only raw mineral access, but also investment in processing, refining, and value-added material production.

Australia Gains Strategic Value as Europe Diversifies Supply

Australia stands to gain economically and strategically from the agreement. The deal is expected to add about $7 billion per year to the Australian economy, while European producers could save more than $1.1 billion in tariffs over the next decade.

The timing is important because Europe is rapidly diversifying its strategic trade partnerships. The EU recently moved forward with trade agreements involving Mercosur and India, showing that Brussels is building a wider network of reliable raw material and manufacturing partners.

The Australia agreement still requires approval by a majority of EU member states and consent from the European Parliament before ratification is complete. However, the strategic direction is already clear: Europe wants critical minerals supply from partners with stable governance, developed mining capacity, and lower geopolitical risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Australia EU trade deal shows that critical minerals have moved from procurement strategy to trade architecture. Europe is no longer simply buying raw materials; it is building alliances to secure the minerals, processing capacity, and industrial resilience needed for the energy transition.

Trade Measures to Dominate Steel Industry in 2025: Focus on Imports and Global Overcapacity

China Steel Factory

Trade protection measures have been the focal point of the global steel industry throughout 2024, with little indication of this trend slowing down in 2025. Steel producers, industry associations, and governments worldwide are increasingly advocating for stronger import barriers to safeguard domestic markets and improve the competitiveness of their industries. In particular, European steel mills have been at the forefront of this movement, calling for more robust action to combat what they view as unfair imports and growing overcapacity in the global market.

European Steel Industry Pushes for Stronger Import Protection

Eurofer, the industry association for European steel manufacturers, has been particularly vocal about the need for stronger trade defence instruments. The association has urged the European Union to implement short-term emergency measures, including import tariffication, to curb the influx of low-cost steel products. Eurofer's stance has been largely driven by the EU’s ambitious decarbonisation goals, with the bloc committing billions of euros in investment. Steel producers argue that the EU's current measures are insufficient, particularly in light of increasing steel imports from countries with lower production costs and fewer environmental regulations.

Significant progress has already been made, with Eurofer helping secure changes to the EU’s safeguard system for key products like hot-rolled coils (HRC) and wire rods. Additionally, the EU anti-dumping investigation targeting several HRC suppliers has gained traction, and further investigations are planned on downstream steel products. As European steel suppliers continue to collect evidence of unfair trade practices, more scrutiny is expected on countries like China, India, and Vietnam.

The Impact of Global Overcapacity and Chinese Steel Exports

The issue of global steel overcapacity has also been a major concern. The OECD has raised alarms about the growing steel production capacity, projecting a 158 million tonnes per year increase in global capacity between 2024 and 2026. This expansion, however, comes at a time when global steel demand remains uncertain. Despite this, steel exports from non-OECD countries have been recovering since 2023, particularly from China, whose steel exports surged by 22.6% from January to November 2024.

China has also been exporting record volumes of semi-finished steel, despite the country’s preference for exporting higher-value products. As China continues to ramp up exports, it has attracted the attention of both European and global policymakers, leading to new protectionist measures targeting Chinese steel. This includes potential investigations and pending duties on Chinese steel, which could affect up to 15 million tonnes per year of exports.

Countries like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia are also seeing increases in steel exports, contributing to the global capacity glut. Turkey, a major market for Chinese steel, has already imposed duties on imports from China, India, Russia, and Japan in response to the increasing influx of steel from these regions. The EU is similarly considering the inclusion of Indonesia in its safeguard measures due to the country’s rising steel exports to Europe. From July to October 2024, Indonesia exported 494,650 tonnes of HRC to the EU, surpassing the previous half-year period, a trend that is expected to continue.

Investigations and Measures Targeting Global Steel Exporters

The growing export volumes from India and Vietnam, along with the rise in Indonesia’s exports to Europe, have prompted investigations into dumping practices in these countries. The EU has already initiated anti-dumping investigations on steel products from Egypt, Japan, India, and Vietnam, with the preliminary results of these investigations expected in March 2025. If these investigations lead to findings of unfair trade practices, retroactive duties could be applied, further tightening global trade conditions.

In response, producers are gearing up for a potential wave of new safeguard measures and anti-dumping duties. Countries that are impacted by these measures may look to retaliate, creating a complex global trade landscape for steel. As trade protectionism increases, the global steel market is expected to undergo significant shifts in the coming years.

LB Titanium Dioxide Plant Acquisition Revives UK TiO2 Pigment Capacity

LB TiO2

LB titanium dioxide plant ownership has expanded into the UK after China’s largest TiO2 producer acquired the Greatham pigment manufacturing site from Venator Materials UK. The acquisition gives LB Group a European production base for titanium dioxide pigments used in coatings and plastics.

LB titanium dioxide plant operations at Greatham are expected to restart this year through Tioxide, a new wholly owned subsidiary. The move gives LB direct manufacturing capacity in the UK at a time when European buyers are reassessing supply security, trade exposure and regional pigment availability.

LB titanium dioxide plant expansion also strengthens the company’s global position. LB Group already has combined TiO2 capacity of 1.51mn t/yr, making it the world’s largest titanium dioxide producer.

The transaction follows a $69.9mn purchase agreement signed with Venator in October 2025. The UK Competition and Markets Authority cleared the acquisition on 23 April.

Greatham Restart Adds Regional Pigment Supply

The Greatham site will manufacture TiO2 pigments for coatings and plastics. These are core industrial markets where titanium dioxide provides whiteness, opacity, brightness and durability.

Restarting the facility could improve regional availability for European and UK customers. It also allows LB to serve some customers from within the market rather than relying only on exports from China.

This matters because TiO2 is widely used in construction coatings, packaging, automotive coatings, plastics, inks and consumer goods. Supply disruptions or trade restrictions can quickly affect downstream manufacturers.

The acquisition also gives LB a strategic foothold in a mature industrial market. Owning European production assets can help the company manage customer relationships, regulatory requirements and product qualification more directly.

For the UK, the deal could preserve TiO2 pigment manufacturing capacity at a site previously owned by Venator. The key question will be how quickly LB can restart operations and secure stable feedstock, labour and customer demand.

Trade Remedies Add Strategic Complexity

The acquisition comes as the UK Trade Remedies Authority investigates imports of rutile titanium dioxide from China. That investigation adds a trade-policy dimension to LB’s European expansion.

Billions Europe, an LB subsidiary, has requested that ink-grade TiO2 be excluded from the case. The request shows how product-specific distinctions can become important in anti-dumping proceedings.

For LB, owning a UK production site may help reduce exposure to import-related trade measures. Local production can also support customers that prefer regional supply or need more predictable delivery.

However, the broader TiO2 market remains highly competitive. Producers face pressure from energy costs, raw material availability, environmental rules, demand cycles and trade remedies.

The Greatham restart will therefore test more than acquisition execution. It will test whether a Chinese producer can use a UK manufacturing asset to strengthen its position in European pigment markets while navigating trade scrutiny.

The Metalnomist Commentary

LB’s Greatham acquisition shows that Chinese materials producers are not only exporting more; they are buying production footprints inside target markets. For TiO2 buyers, the deal could improve local availability, but trade policy will remain a major factor shaping supply routes.

EU Ferro-Alloy Safeguards Face Legal Challenge From Grondmet

Ferro-alloy

EU Ferro-alloy safeguards are facing a legal challenge after German alloy trader Grondmet filed an action for annulment with the EU’s General Court. The case could become an important test of how Europe balances import protection, industrial competitiveness, and raw material access for alloy consumers.

Grondmet is disputing the legal basis for safeguards implemented by the EU on 19 November 2025. The company argues that the measures do not meet the European Commission’s own thresholds because a recent, sudden, sharp, and significant rise in imports cannot be substantiated for ferro-silicon or ferro-manganese.

The challenge matters because ferro-alloys are essential inputs for steelmaking, foundries, stainless steel, and specialty alloy production. If safeguards raise costs or restrict access without clear market justification, downstream manufacturers could face additional pressure at a time when European industry is already struggling with energy costs and regulatory burdens.

Grondmet Questions Import Evidence and Product Grouping

Grondmet’s case focuses on whether the EU properly assessed the ferro-alloy market before applying safeguards. The company says the Commission failed to conduct a product-specific assessment and wrongly treated different grades and qualities as homogeneous product groups.

This point is commercially important. Ferro-silicon, ferro-manganese, and other ferro-alloys are not interchangeable in many industrial applications. Grade, chemistry, impurity limits, origin, and delivery reliability can determine whether a material is suitable for a specific steel or alloy recipe.

Grondmet also argues that out-of-quota price thresholds are disconnected from actual market conditions. The company specifically says the ferro-silicon threshold is misaligned with prevailing prices and lacks clear economic or methodological justification. If accepted by the court, this argument could weaken the basis for applying broad safeguards across differentiated alloy products.

Energy Costs Remain Europe’s Deeper Ferro-Alloy Problem

EU ferro-alloy safeguards also raise a wider competitiveness question. Grondmet argues that the primary structural challenge for European ferro-alloy producers is energy cost, not import pressure. This is a critical distinction because ferro-alloy production is highly power-intensive.

If high electricity prices are the main reason European producers are losing competitiveness, import safeguards may not solve the underlying problem. They may instead shift costs to steelmakers, foundries, traders, and industrial buyers that depend on competitively priced alloying materials.

The legal process could also attract wider industry participation. An action for annulment allows third parties to intervene either in support of or against the challenge. Grondmet has invited European traders, producers, and consumers to join the case, suggesting that the dispute may become a broader debate over EU industrial policy and market access.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Grondmet case highlights a growing tension in European metals policy. Protection tools may support producers in the short term, but they can weaken downstream competitiveness if they do not address the real cost problem: energy.

HyProMag Rare Earth Magnet Recycling Plant Opens in Germany

HyProMag

HyProMag rare earth magnet recycling has moved into commercial-scale production in Germany after the company opened a new recycling and manufacturing plant in Pforzheim. The facility strengthens Europe’s effort to build a circular rare earth magnet supply chain outside China.

HyProMag rare earth magnet recycling will focus on neodymium-iron-boron magnets and alloys. The plant will start with 100 t/yr of production capacity, with plans to increase output to 350 t/yr.

HyProMag rare earth magnet recycling is strategically important because NdFeB magnets are critical for electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, electronics, defence systems and industrial motors. Europe needs more local magnet capacity as China continues to dominate rare earth processing and magnet production.

The plant is permitted for production of up to 750 t/yr. HyProMag and parent company Mkango Resources are evaluating a scale-up to that level over the next three years.

HPMS Technology Targets Magnet Scrap Recovery

The Pforzheim plant will use Hydrogen Processing of Magnet Scrap technology, known as HPMS. The process was developed at the University of Birmingham and is designed to recover rare earth magnets from scrap streams more efficiently.

This technology matters because magnet recycling can reduce dependence on mined rare earth feedstock and conventional separation routes. It can also shorten supply chains by recovering material already embedded in end-of-life products and industrial scrap.

Recycled NdFeB magnets can support European manufacturers that need secure and traceable supply. Automotive, wind power, electronics and defence customers increasingly want material with clearer origin and lower supply-chain risk.

The initial 100 t/yr capacity is modest compared with China’s magnet industry. However, the strategic value lies in proving that commercial-scale recycling and magnet manufacturing can operate inside Europe.

The planned expansion to 350 t/yr, and potentially 750 t/yr, would make the site more meaningful for regional supply. It would also help Europe develop technical expertise in magnet scrap collection, processing, alloying and remanufacturing.

EU Critical Raw Materials Strategy Gains Recycling Base

HyProMag’s German plant fits directly into Europe’s critical raw materials strategy. The EU wants to reduce dependence on imported rare earth materials by supporting domestic mining, separation, recycling and manufacturing capacity.

Mkango Resources adds another layer to this strategy. The Canadian company owns a rare earths project in Malawi and a proposed rare earths separation plant in Poland.

Both projects have been selected as strategic projects under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act. This gives Mkango a broader position across upstream rare earth resources, midstream separation and downstream magnet recycling.

The German plant therefore is not just a standalone recycling facility. It could become part of a wider European rare earth value chain connecting African feedstock, European separation and recycled magnet production.

For Europe, this model is important. Mining alone will not solve rare earth dependence if separation, metal making, alloying and magnet manufacturing remain concentrated elsewhere.

HyProMag’s Pforzheim facility helps address one of the most difficult parts of the chain: turning rare earth scrap into usable magnet products. If the company scales successfully, it could support a more resilient European magnet ecosystem.

The Metalnomist Commentary

HyProMag’s plant shows that Europe’s rare earth strategy is moving from policy ambition into industrial execution. The key test will be whether recycling capacity can scale fast enough to supply real magnet demand in EVs, wind power and defence.

China and EU Resume Electric Vehicle Talks Amid Growing US Tariff Pressures

US tariff, China

Negotiations on Price Commitments Could Ease Trade Friction in the EV Market

China and the European Union (EU) have decided to resume negotiations regarding a price commitment mechanism for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This decision follows the EU's implementation of countervailing duties on Chinese BEV imports in 2024. The goal of these talks is to replace the tariffs imposed on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), addressing ongoing trade tensions between China and the EU.

EU's Countervailing Duties and the Push for a Price Commitment Mechanism

In October 2024, the European Commission finalized its ruling on countervailing duties on BEVs imported from China, which came into effect at the end of October. These duties ranged from 17% to 35.3%, impacting major Chinese automakers like BYD, SAIC, and Geely. The aim was to counter what the EU viewed as unfair pricing practices by Chinese EV manufacturers. However, these tariffs have faced opposition from both China and European companies seeking to expand their market share in the fast-growing electric vehicle sector.

Despite early talks on a price commitment mechanism in November 2024, the discussions stalled without significant progress. However, on April 10, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that both sides had agreed to resume negotiations on the price commitments and to discuss broader issues of investment cooperation in the automotive industry.

US Tariffs Intensify the Pressure on China and the EU

The resumption of talks between China and the EU comes amidst escalating trade tensions with the United States. As of April 11, 2025, the US imposed a 145% tariff rate on imports from China, adding additional pressure on Chinese manufacturers, particularly in the electric vehicle and battery sectors. US President Donald Trump's tariffs, which were initially implemented in 2024, compounded by those under the Biden administration, have made it nearly impossible for Chinese EVs and lithium-ion batteries to enter the US market.

In an effort to counterbalance the US's growing tariff measures, China has been seeking closer economic ties with the EU. Chinese Premier Li Qiang held discussions with EU President Ursula von der Leyen on April 8, 2025, addressing the need for structural solutions to re-balance bilateral trade relations. The talks have emphasized the urgency of enhancing market access for European businesses in China and forging a collaborative approach to the challenges posed by US tariffs.

Potential Impact on the Electric Vehicle Market

If China and the EU reach an agreement on the price commitment mechanism, it could significantly alter the landscape for Chinese EVs in Europe. Prior to the implementation of the countervailing duties, the EU accounted for about 28% of China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) exports, which includes both BEVs and hybrid plug-in vehicles. However, the tariffs have drastically reduced Chinese EV exports to Europe.

The continuation of trade protectionist measures from both the US and the EU is putting immense pressure on China’s EV and battery markets, particularly as it struggles to enter key international markets. The future of Chinese electric vehicle exports largely hinges on these negotiations, and any breakthrough could bring Chinese-made EVs back into the competitive EU market.

EU ETS and CBAM Reform Moves to the Center of Europe’s Industrial Debate

EU ETS

EU ETS and CBAM reform has moved to the center of Europe’s industrial debate. European leaders and major industrial executives now want climate policy to protect competitiveness more effectively. They argue that energy costs and carbon costs are putting heavy pressure on manufacturers. As a result, EU ETS and CBAM reform is becoming a core test of Europe’s industrial strategy.

Ursula von der Leyen made the message clear in Antwerp. She said more ETS revenues should flow back into industry instead of remaining underused. EU ETS revenues have exceeded €260bn since 2005, but only a small share has supported industrial decarbonisation. Therefore, EU ETS and CBAM reform is no longer only about emissions policy. It is also about how Europe funds industrial survival and transition.

Industrial leaders are also asking for a harder review of the current ETS design. Cefic’s leadership argued that two decades of ETS policy may have created unintended pressure on European producers. That criticism reflects a wider concern across chemicals, steel, and fertilizers. Consequently, EU industrial competitiveness is now being discussed alongside carbon ambition, not after it.

ETS Revenues for Industry Are Becoming a Main Political Demand

ETS revenues for industry are now one of the clearest demands from business leaders. Companies want a larger share of carbon-market income returned to industrial decarbonisation projects. They argue that this money should help fund cleaner production, not simply disappear into general state budgets. As a result, the summer ETS reform debate could become highly consequential for manufacturers.

This issue matters because European industry is already under cost pressure. Energy prices remain volatile, and carbon costs add another burden to production. If ETS revenues are reinvested more directly, companies may gain more confidence to modernize assets and keep production in Europe. Therefore, ETS revenues for industry could become one of the most practical tools in the reform package.

French president Emmanuel Macron added a similar message from a competitiveness angle. He argued that ETS must support decarbonisation without damaging industry. That framing is important because it shifts the debate from climate policy alone to climate policy design. Meanwhile, it strengthens the case for reforms that are more responsive to industrial reality.

CBAM Certainty Will Matter as Much as CBAM Ambition

CBAM certainty is now just as important as CBAM ambition. Macron said CBAM is necessary if Europe wants to preserve sectors such as steel. However, industry leaders warned that mixed signals from Brussels are creating confusion. That confusion risks weakening trust in the policy before it is fully established.

Yara’s chief executive highlighted that risk directly. He said fertilizer producers faced serious uncertainty after the Commission discussed a possible temporary suspension for some CBAM goods. Even the idea of retroactive change unsettled the market. Therefore, EU ETS and CBAM reform must now address policy stability as well as policy strength.

The wider business message from Antwerp was straightforward. European companies are not asking to avoid the transition. They are asking for competitive conditions that allow them to lead it. Public procurement, private buyer initiatives, and clearer climate rules could all help create that framework. As a result, CBAM certainty may prove just as critical as carbon pricing itself.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe is entering a more difficult phase of climate policy. Setting carbon rules was the first challenge, but making them industrially workable is the next one. If Brussels cannot deliver both stronger support and greater policy clarity, EU ETS and CBAM reform may protect ambition while weakening the industries expected to carry it.

EU 2026 Growth Forecast Cut as Energy Shock Hits Industrial Outlook

EU energy

EU 2026 growth forecast has been cut to 1.1% as the European Commission warned that the US-Iran war has created a new energy shock, lifted inflation risk and weakened economic sentiment across the bloc.

EU 2026 growth forecast was lowered by 0.3 percentage points from the previous projection of 1.4%. The downgrade reflects the sharp rise in energy costs since late February and the renewed pressure on households, manufacturers and public finances.

EU 2026 growth forecast matters for metals and industrial supply chains because higher gas and oil prices directly affect production costs, margins and demand visibility. Energy-intensive sectors such as aluminium, steel, chemicals, fertilizers and glass remain especially exposed.

The Commission expects EU growth to recover to 1.4% in 2027, while eurozone growth is forecast at 1.2%. But the near-term outlook remains fragile as the energy shock continues to reshape inflation and investment decisions.

Higher Gas and Oil Prices Weigh on European Competitiveness

Energy prices have risen sharply since the outbreak of the conflict. The Commission said gas prices increased by 50% and crude oil prices by 65% between 27 February and the 29 April cut-off date.

The outlook assumes average TTF gas futures prices will be 47% higher in 2026 and 32% higher in 2027 than in the previous forecast. That creates a heavier cost base for European industry.

For manufacturers, the impact is immediate. Higher gas, power and fuel costs reduce competitiveness against producers in regions with cheaper energy.

This is especially important for metals. European smelters, refiners and rolling mills already face pressure from imports, carbon costs and weak demand. Another energy shock could delay restocking and weaken investment appetite.

Inflation is also expected to rise. EU headline inflation is forecast to increase to 3.1% in 2026 from 2.5% in 2025, before easing to 2.4% in 2027.

That inflation path limits policy flexibility. Governments may need to support vulnerable consumers and industries, but public finances are already under pressure.

The EU general government deficit is expected to widen to 3.6% of GDP by 2027, up from 3.1% in 2025. This reduces the room for broad stimulus and increases the importance of targeted support.

Growth Gap Widens Across the EU

The energy shock is affecting member states unevenly. Ireland is forecast to contract by 1.2%, while major economies such as Italy, Germany and France are expected to grow only modestly.

Germany’s growth is forecast at 0.6%, France at 0.8%, Italy at 0.5% and the Netherlands at 1%. These figures point to weak momentum across several core industrial economies.

Southern and eastern Europe show stronger projections. Spain is forecast to grow by 2.4%, Lithuania by 3%, Poland by 3.5% and Malta by 3.7%.

The gap matters because Europe’s industrial recovery will not be uniform. Regions with stronger growth may support construction, infrastructure and manufacturing demand, while slower economies could weigh on metals consumption.

The Commission also warned of a downside scenario in which EU-wide growth falls to just 0.7% this year. That risk depends partly on how quickly oil and gas supply from the Mideast Gulf can normalise.

EU economy commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said Europe should respond by further reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels and keeping fiscal support temporary and targeted.

That message reinforces the strategic link between energy security and industrial competitiveness. Europe has reduced the energy intensity of economic output by about 44% since 1995, but the latest shock shows that import dependence still carries major economic risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s growth downgrade is an industrial warning, not just a macroeconomic revision. The bloc cannot protect metals, manufacturing and clean-energy supply chains without faster domestic energy deployment and lower exposure to imported fossil fuels.