Chinese Aluminium Investment Shifts Focus to Overseas Production Facilities

Chinese Aluminium

Chinese aluminium investment is pivoting toward international markets as domestic production approaches government-imposed capacity limits. China produced 43.4 million tonnes of aluminium in 2024 and already possesses capacity to reach the government's production cap of 45 million tonnes per year. Therefore, any new Chinese aluminium investment will concentrate on facilities outside China rather than expanding domestic capacity.

Production Growth Slows in China While Global Expansion Accelerates

China's aluminium production growth will decelerate dramatically to approximately 0.4% compound annual growth rate over the medium term. This represents a significant shift from China's previous rapid expansion that outpaced global competitors. Meanwhile, Chinese aluminium investment will target strategic locations including Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Angola for new production facilities.

Indonesia emerges as the primary beneficiary of Chinese aluminium investment, with approximately 3 million tonnes of new annual capacity expected. The country has transformed from a bauxite supplier to China into a downstream aluminium producer. As a result, Indonesia's aluminium industry will receive substantial Chinese capital and technology transfer.

Secondary Aluminium Production Expands Despite Scrap Supply Constraints

Chinese secondary aluminium production will reach almost 30 million tonnes per year in 2025, doubling from 15 million tonnes five years ago. However, tight scrap supply continues to limit capacity utilization rates below 50% across the industry. This constraint affects the efficiency of Chinese aluminium investment in recycling infrastructure.

Ron Knapp, advisor to China Hongqiao Group chairman, emphasized that the production cap remains firm government policy. The cap prevents overcapacity issues similar to those experienced in China's steel industry. Therefore, Chinese companies must pursue aluminium investment opportunities in international markets to maintain growth trajectories.

Chinese aluminium demand growth will also moderate significantly in coming years. Primary aluminium consumption will increase by just 0.9% in 2025, falling to approximately 0.6% thereafter. Consequently, Chinese aluminium investment strategy focuses on securing global market share rather than serving domestic demand alone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This strategic pivot reflects China's maturing aluminium sector and government commitment to sustainable industrial development through production caps. The shift toward overseas Chinese aluminium investment, particularly in resource-rich countries like Indonesia, will reshape global aluminium supply chains and create new competitive dynamics in international markets.

Rio Tinto’s 3Q Copper and Aluminium Production Declines, Bauxite Output Rises

Rio Tinto’s

Rio Tinto, the UK-Australian mining giant, posted moderate declines in mined copper and primary aluminium production in the third quarter of 2024. However, the company saw overall output growth during the first nine months of the year.

Copper Production Declines Amid Challenges at Key Mines

In the third quarter, Rio Tinto’s mined copper production dropped by 1% year-on-year, reaching 167,800 tonnes. This decline was largely due to a significant 44% decrease at the Kennecott mine in the United States, where geological issues, including ground movement, restricted access to high-grade ore, forcing the use of lower-grade material. However, the company’s Escondida mine in Chile showed a 15% increase in output, driven by higher ore grades, and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia experienced a 19% production boost due to increased operational efficiency.

For the first nine months of 2024, Rio Tinto's mined copper production increased by 8% year-on-year, totalling 494,700 tonnes. Meanwhile, refined copper production surged by 59% in Q3, reaching 54,300 tonnes, thanks to a 129% increase at Kennecott following its smelter and refinery rebuild in the previous quarter. This was partially offset by a 24% drop in Escondida’s refined copper output due to lower ore grades. Overall, Rio Tinto’s refined copper production for January-September was up by 39% to 179,600 tonnes.

Aluminium Production Experiences Setbacks

Rio Tinto's primary aluminium production in Q3 fell by 2% year-on-year to 809,000 tonnes. This also represented a 2% drop from the previous quarter. However, aluminium production for the first nine months of 2024 was up by 1%, totalling 2.46 million tonnes. The decline in Q3 was linked to operational issues at the New Zealand Aluminium Smelters subsidiary, where Meridian Energy halted plans for a 600 MW renewable hydrogen and ammonia project due to economic and logistical challenges. As a result, the company expects to ramp up the smelter at Tiwai Peninsula in New Zealand by the second quarter of 2025.

Rio Tinto is also focusing on sustainability. In August 2024, Rio Tinto entered a partnership with the Queensland state government in Australia to ensure the long-term future of its Boyne smelter by transitioning to renewable energy sources.

Bauxite Production Shows Growth

Bauxite production, another key commodity for Rio Tinto, increased by 8% year-on-year in Q3 to 15.1 million tonnes. This growth was driven by higher utilisation rates at Rio Tinto’s Amrun mine in Weipa, Australia, following the implementation of the company’s Safe Production System in 2021. The system uses data-driven insights to optimize maintenance scheduling and prevent bottlenecking. Total bauxite production for the first nine months of 2024 rose by 9% year-on-year, totalling 43.2 million tonnes.

Outlook for 2024

Looking ahead, Rio Tinto expects to produce between 660,000 and 720,000 tonnes of mined copper and 230,000 to 260,000 tonnes of refined copper for the remainder of 2024, indicating a steady production forecast for the rest of the year despite the challenges faced in Q3.

Chalco Reports Increased Aluminium and Alumina Output in January-September

Chalco

Chalco, China's state-owned aluminium producer, has reported notable increases in both its primary aluminium and alumina production for the January-September period, compared to the same period last year. The rise in output is reflective of strong domestic demand for these materials, which have supported price growth across the industry.

During the first nine months of 2024, Chalco’s primary aluminium output, including aluminium alloys, rose by 14% year-on-year, reaching 5.62 million tons (mn t). This increase in production aligns with a 13% rise in primary aluminium sales, which also reached 5.6 million tons over the same period. This performance underscores Chalco's strong market position in the aluminium sector, with solid sales and production figures helping to bolster its standing in an increasingly competitive market.

Chalco also saw a slight increase in its metallurgical alumina output, a crucial feedstock used in primary aluminium production. The company produced 12.57 million tons of alumina in January-September, marking a 0.9% rise over the previous year. However, the company reported a decline in alumina sales, which fell by 4.8% to 4.77 million tons during the same period.

In terms of product segmentation, Chalco’s fine alumina production grew by 15% year-on-year, reaching 3.25 million tons, up from 5.01 million tons in 2023. Fine alumina is used in the production of higher-value products, and this increase reflects Chalco's shift towards higher-quality, more profitable outputs.

The increase in both aluminium and alumina production was supported by strong domestic demand, which helped push prices higher during the reporting period. Chalco noted that higher profitability within the aluminium and alumina production sectors encouraged manufacturers to maximize their production run rates, further driving output.

According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s total aluminium production grew by 4.6% year-on-year to 32.56 million tons in the January-September period, while alumina output rose by 2.4% to 63.13 million tons.

Strong Demand Supports Price Growth in Aluminium and Alumina

The performance of Chalco and other domestic producers is being driven by persistent domestic demand in China, one of the world’s largest consumers of both aluminium and alumina. Rising prices for both materials have contributed to improved profitability across the industry. Despite a decline in alumina sales, Chalco’s overall production and sales growth in aluminium highlights a promising outlook for the company in the remainder of the year.

As Chalco continues to ramp up production, it is expected that the market will remain focused on the ongoing balance between domestic demand, production capabilities, and price fluctuations, particularly as global economic conditions continue to evolve.

South32 Maintains 2024-25 Production Guidance, Excluding Mozal Aluminium

South32

Diversified Miner Reports Stable Output Across Key Assets

South32 has reaffirmed its 2024-25 production guidance for most of its operations, excluding Mozal Aluminium in Mozambique due to transportation disruptions from civil unrest. The Australian-based miner continues to ramp up production across its aluminium, copper, nickel, zinc, and manganese operations despite regional challenges.

Mozal Aluminium Faces Uncertainty Amid Civil Unrest

South32’s Mozal Aluminium smelter produced 90,000 tonnes of aluminium in Q4 2024, marking a 2.3% increase from the previous quarter. However, ongoing violent protests in Mozambique have led to the withdrawal of production guidance. While production and exports remain operational, raw material transportation remains disrupted.

Aluminium and Alumina Production Remains Strong

• Brazil Aluminium (40% South32 ownership): Q4 2024 output increased 13% quarter-over-quarter to 34,000 tonnes. Production guidance remains 130,000 t/yr.
• Hillside Aluminium (South Africa, 100% ownership): Production remained steady at 182,000 tonnes, with guidance unchanged at 720,000 t/yr.
• Brazil Alumina (36% South32 ownership): Q4 2024 production rose 4.2% to 348,000 tonnes, with guidance steady at 1.35 million t/yr.
• Worsley Alumina (Western Australia, 86% ownership): Production surged 18% to 1 million tonnes after maintenance, with 2024-25 guidance at 3.75 million t/yr.

Copper, Zinc, Nickel, and Manganese Performance

• Sierra Gorda Copper Mine (Chile, 45% ownership): Payable copper production rose 10% to 24,300 tonnes due to higher grades and improved molybdenum recovery. Guidance remains 84,800 t/yr.
• Cannington Zinc Mine (Australia, 100% ownership): Zinc output surged 50% to 79,200 tonnes, driven by higher plant throughput and improved silver and lead grades. Guidance holds at 265,400 t/yr.
• Cerro Matoso Nickel Mine (Colombia, 99.9% ownership): Nickel production rose 15% to 9,900 tonnes with improved plant utilization. Guidance remains 35,000 t/yr.
• Gemco Manganese Mine (Australia, 60% ownership): Production resumed after Cyclone Megan, reaching 639,000 tonnes.
• Hotazel Manganese Mine (South Africa, 54.6% ownership): Output declined 19% to 485,000 tonnes due to a temporary shutdown at Wessels mine.

Green Aluminium Incentives and Industry Outlook

The Australian government has pledged A$2 billion in production credits to support aluminium producers transitioning to renewable energy by 2036. The Green Aluminium Production Credit will be available from 2028-29 for up to 10 years, though specific details remain undisclosed.

South32’s production stability, despite regional disruptions, positions it strongly within the evolving global metals market.

Alcoa Shifts Focus to Aluminium Production with Alumina Cuts in 2025

Alcoa

US aluminium producer Alcoa has announced plans to cut alumina output and ramp up aluminium production in 2025. In its annual report, released on January 22, Alcoa revealed it had met its production targets for 2024, producing 10 million tons of alumina and 2.2 million tons of aluminium. While aluminium production grew by 4.8% from 2023, alumina output fell by 2.9%. This strategic move highlights Alcoa's ongoing adjustments in response to market conditions and operational challenges.

Alumina Production Cuts Continue into 2025

For 2025, Alcoa expects alumina production to range between 9.5 million and 9.7 million tons, marking the second consecutive year of output reductions. The company had previously halted operations at its Kwinana plant in Western Australia, which had a capacity of 2.2 million tons per year. This decision followed a combination of high operating costs, the plant's age, and soaring bauxite prices. As a result, Alcoa plans to continue sourcing alumina externally, a strategy it began in 2024 to fulfill customer orders and maintain supply chain efficiency.

Aluminium Production Growth Driven by Plant Resumptions

On the aluminium front, Alcoa saw significant growth, increasing its output by 4.8% in 2024. This increase was driven in part by the resumption of operations at its Warrick and Alumar joint venture smelters in the US and Brazil, which had been inactive for years. In 2025, Alcoa forecasts aluminium production to rise further to between 2.6 million and 2.8 million tons, as these plants continue to scale up operations. The company’s aluminium output is expected to remain steady through 2024, with quarterly production gradually increasing.

Alcoa Looks Ahead with Positive Aluminium Price Outlook

Alcoa's financial outlook for 2025 is further supported by the positive trend in aluminium prices. The London Metal Exchange's aluminium cash price rose from $2,110 per ton to $2,611 per ton over the past year, reflecting growing demand. Additionally, the removal of the tax rebate on commodities, including aluminium, by China in December 2024 is expected to further elevate prices, benefiting Alcoa's bottom line.

Century Nordural Aluminium Restart Moves Ahead After Iceland Potline Outage

Century Nordural aluminium

Century Nordural aluminium restart has begun at the company’s Grundartangi smelter in Iceland after an electrical equipment failure halted production on the second potline in October. Century Aluminum said the first pots have been energised and the remaining pots will be restarted on an accelerated schedule.

The Century Nordural aluminium restart is expected to bring the second potline close to full production by the end of July. The restart follows repairs to failed transformers, which are scheduled to be replaced with new units later this year.

Century Nordural aluminium restart timing is important because the global aluminium market remains sensitive to smelter outages, power reliability and regional supply disruptions. Any faster-than-expected return of capacity can ease some pressure on primary aluminium availability.

Century had previously expected to restart the second potline by the end of April and return to near full production by the end of July. The early restart suggests the repair programme is progressing ahead of schedule.

Iceland Smelter Recovery Could Support 2026 Output

Nordural’s Grundartangi smelter produced 275,000t of aluminium in 2025. Century said in February that it expected the Icelandic operation to produce 215,000t in 2026, down by 21.8% from the previous year because of the potline outage.

The early restart may improve this year’s production outlook. However, the final impact will depend on how quickly Century can re-energise the remaining pots and stabilise operations.

Primary aluminium smelters are highly sensitive to power and electrical infrastructure reliability. A transformer failure can remove large volumes from supply because restarting pots requires careful sequencing and operational control.

The restart also matters for European aluminium users. Icelandic aluminium is part of the broader Atlantic supply base, and any disruption can influence regional availability, premiums and procurement planning.

Century’s ability to bring the potline back ahead of schedule helps reduce uncertainty. Still, the planned transformer replacement later this year means electrical resilience will remain a key operational focus.

Century Expands US and Iceland Aluminium Supply

Century’s Iceland restart comes shortly after the company began production from its Mt Holly expansion project in South Carolina. The Mt Holly project is expected to lift that smelter to 229,000 t/yr by the end of June.

The two developments strengthen Century’s position across both North American and Atlantic primary aluminium supply. Nordural restores disrupted Icelandic output, while Mt Holly adds domestic US production capacity.

This is strategically relevant as aluminium supply chains become more policy-sensitive. The US has moved to support domestic primary aluminium production through trade measures, while European buyers remain exposed to power costs, smelter outages and regional premium volatility.

Century is therefore improving supply availability from two directions. The company is recovering lost production in Iceland and expanding output in the US.

For the market, the restart provides near-term supply relief. For Century, it reduces the earnings impact of the October outage and supports a stronger production base heading into the second half of 2026.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Century’s Nordural restart shows how quickly aluminium supply risk can turn on electrical infrastructure reliability. In a tight primary aluminium market, restoring idled pots ahead of schedule can matter almost as much as adding new capacity.

Qatalum Aluminium Output to Stay at 60% as Gas Supply Continues

Qatalum Aluminium

Qatalum aluminium output will remain at around 60% capacity after QatarEnergy confirmed it would continue supplying gas to the smelter at reduced levels. The update prevents a full shutdown of the Qatar-based aluminium operation and reduces the risk of a prolonged production outage.

Hydro had earlier said Qatalum had started a controlled shutdown of its aluminium operations after QatarEnergy took the Ras Laffan LNG export terminal offline. The disruption followed a drone attack at the wider Ras Laffan industrial complex, raising immediate concerns over gas availability for energy-intensive aluminium production.

Qatalum aluminium output now has a clearer short-term operating path. Hydro said the reduced gas supply is sufficient to maintain production at about 60% capacity until further notice. That decision is important because aluminium smelters are difficult and costly to restart after a complete shutdown.

Reduced Operations Protect Qatalum From a Long Restart Timeline

Maintaining Qatalum aluminium output at reduced capacity gives the joint venture operational flexibility. Hydro said a full shutdown could have required a restart timeline of six to twelve months. By keeping the smelter running, Qatalum can move back toward full production more quickly once gas supply conditions improve.

The smelter has a nameplate capacity of 636,000 tonnes per year of primary aluminium. It also operates a 664,000-tonne casthouse, making it an important supplier of aluminium products to international markets.

The gas supply issue also highlights the vulnerability of aluminium smelting to energy disruption. Primary aluminium production requires continuous power and stable thermal management. When gas supply is constrained, producers must balance output reduction against the severe operational risk of shutting down potlines completely.

Hormuz Shipping Disruption Adds Pressure to Aluminium Supply Chains

The production update does not remove the broader supply-chain risk. Shipments from aluminium smelters to international customers remain disrupted because of halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway is a critical route for Gulf industrial exports, including metals and energy products.

Security risks in the Middle East Gulf have intensified after attacks on several vessels and US action against mine-laying ships near the strait. Any mine-related threat in regional waters could prolong disruption to commercial shipping even if wider hostilities ease.

For global aluminium buyers, the issue is therefore both production and logistics. Qatalum may avoid a full shutdown, but reduced operating rates and shipping uncertainty can still tighten availability, delay deliveries, and increase risk premiums in aluminium supply contracts.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Qatalum’s 60% operating plan is a damage-control outcome rather than a full recovery. The bigger market risk is that energy disruption and Hormuz shipping pressure could hit Gulf aluminium supply at the same time.

Metlen Aluminium Production Fell in 2025 as Power Costs Hit Metals Profits

Metlen

Metlen aluminium production declined in 2025 as higher European electricity costs squeezed margins across the Greek group’s metals business. The company produced 232,000t of aluminium during the year, down 2% from 2024.

Primary aluminium output fell by 4% to 176,000t, outweighing a 2% increase in recycled aluminium production to 57,000t. Alumina output also slipped by 1% to 855,000t.

Metlen aluminium production weakness shows how European smelters remain exposed to energy costs even when aluminium prices are firmer. Higher power prices reduced operating profits and weakened the earnings contribution from the metals segment.

Aluminium Revenue Rose but EBITDA Fell Sharply

Metlen’s metals revenue increased in 2025, but profitability fell because margins weakened. Aluminium revenue rose by 4% to €646mn, while EBITDA from aluminium dropped by 40% to €127mn.

Alumina showed a similar pattern. Revenue from alumina production increased by 4% to €206mn, but product-linked EBITDA fell by 9% to €79mn.

The result highlights the margin pressure facing European aluminium producers. Stronger aluminium prices, supported by trade tensions and US import tariffs, were not enough to offset higher electricity costs across the region.

Metlen’s metals unit contributed 13% of group revenue. However, weaker metals earnings weighed on the company’s broader industrial performance.

Gallium Project Adds Strategic Value Beyond Aluminium

Metlen’s group EBITDA fell by 30% to €753mn in 2025, despite a 25% increase in revenue to €7.1bn. The decline reflected project execution-related losses, mainly tied to the Protos strategic energy and resource project in the UK.

Revenue growth was supported by stronger performance in renewables, infrastructure, and concessions. This helped offset some weakness from metals, but did not prevent the group-wide earnings decline.

Metlen is also moving into critical materials. The company plans to produce up to 50 t/yr of gallium by 2028 after reaching full capacity, supported by a €90mn investment from the European Investment Bank.

This gallium project could give Metlen a more strategic role in Europe’s critical minerals supply chain. Gallium is important for semiconductors, power electronics, optics, defense systems, and advanced communications technologies.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Metlen’s results show that Europe’s aluminium industry still faces a structural energy-cost problem. The gallium project gives the company a higher-value strategic materials angle, but its aluminium margins will remain tied to power competitiveness.

Xinfa Kazakhstan Aluminium Project Could Create Major Integrated Production Hub

Xinfa Group

Xinfa Kazakhstan aluminium project plans could create one of the largest integrated aluminium production bases outside China. The Chinese producer is reportedly preparing alumina, primary aluminium and fabricated product capacity in Kazakhstan’s Pavlodar region.

Xinfa Kazakhstan aluminium project plans include 4.8mn t/yr of alumina, 2.4mn t/yr of primary aluminium and 1.2mn t/yr of fabricated products. The first phase is targeted to start operations in 2028, with full commissioning planned for 2029.

Xinfa Kazakhstan aluminium project investment is estimated at around $15bn. If completed at the proposed scale, it would represent a major expansion of Kazakhstan’s role in the global aluminium supply chain.

The project also reflects a broader structural shift among Chinese aluminium producers. China’s 45mn t/yr domestic primary aluminium capacity cap is encouraging companies to pursue growth through overseas investment.

Integrated Complex Would Reshape Kazakhstan’s Aluminium Industry

The proposed Pavlodar complex would cover multiple stages of the aluminium value chain rather than operating as a standalone smelter.

Producing alumina, primary aluminium and fabricated products within one industrial platform could reduce logistics costs and improve control over feedstock, metal supply and downstream processing.

The planned 2.4mn t/yr smelter capacity is particularly significant. At that scale, the project would become a major new source of primary aluminium and could materially influence regional trade flows.

Adding 1.2mn t/yr of fabricated product capacity would push Xinfa further downstream. This would allow the company to capture more value than exporting primary metal alone.

For Kazakhstan, the project could support industrial diversification, local employment and greater domestic processing of raw materials. It could also position Pavlodar as a more important aluminium manufacturing centre serving Europe and Asia.

However, such a large project will require substantial power, infrastructure and raw material support. Electricity economics will be especially important because smelting remains the most energy-intensive stage of aluminium production.

China’s Capacity Cap Drives Overseas Aluminium Expansion

Xinfa already operates integrated aluminium assets across Shandong, Xinjiang and Guangxi. But domestic growth is constrained by China’s national primary aluminium capacity ceiling.

That policy is changing how Chinese producers expand. Instead of adding large amounts of capacity inside China, companies are increasingly looking to Indonesia, Central Asia and other overseas markets.

Xinfa already participates in a 250,000 t/yr Indonesian smelter with Tsingshan that started operations late last year. The partners are also developing another 230,000 t/yr of capacity in Indonesia.

Kazakhstan would represent a much larger step. The proposed project is several times bigger than Xinfa’s existing overseas smelting investments and would add downstream fabrication as well as alumina refining.

This strategy could gradually shift part of Chinese-controlled aluminium production outside China’s formal capacity cap while preserving access to new growth.

For global markets, that distinction matters. China may restrict domestic smelter capacity, but Chinese producers can still expand effective global supply through overseas projects.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Xinfa’s Kazakhstan plan shows that China’s aluminium capacity cap is pushing expansion beyond national borders rather than eliminating growth. If completed, Pavlodar could become a major new aluminium hub linking Chinese capital with Central Asian resources, power and export routes.

Nalco Record Profit Highlights India’s Aluminium Market Strength

Nalco

Nalco record profit in FY2025/26 shows how stronger production volumes, higher aluminium prices and improved operating efficiency lifted India’s state-owned aluminium producer to a new earnings high. The company reported profit of 58.16bn rupees for the year to March, up 9.2% from a year earlier.

Nalco record profit was supported by revenue growth of 6.3% to Rs178.43bn. In the final quarter of the financial year, profit rose by 7% to Rs17.18bn, while revenue increased by 7.9% to Rs51.03bn.

Nalco record profit also reflects stronger market realisations. Three-month aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange averaged $2,780/t through the financial year, up from $2,553/t in the previous year.

The result reinforces the importance of India’s aluminium value chain. Higher domestic metal sales and stable alumina output strengthen Nalco’s position as India expands infrastructure, power, transport, packaging and industrial manufacturing.

Record Aluminium Output Supports Domestic Demand

Nalco set new records for aluminium production and sales during the year. Cast aluminium production reached 472,000t, while aluminium sales totalled 474,000t.

Domestic sales reached a record 461,000t. This is strategically important because it shows that India’s internal aluminium demand remains strong enough to absorb most of Nalco’s output.

Aluminium consumption in India is tied to several structural growth sectors. Power transmission, construction, transport, packaging, electrical products and manufacturing all require more aluminium as industrial activity expands.

Higher domestic sales also reduce exposure to export volatility. For Nalco, a larger Indian customer base can improve sales stability when global trade flows are affected by tariffs, premiums or regional demand swings.

The production record also points to better operating execution. Higher volumes matter only when supported by plant reliability, cost discipline and stable raw material flows.

Nalco said stronger production, improved realisations and operating efficiency across business units drove the performance. That combination allowed the company to capture better market pricing while expanding output.

Alumina and Price Realisations Strengthen Earnings Base

Nalco also produced 2.3mn t of alumina hydrate and recorded 1.4mn t of alumina sales. Alumina remains central to the company’s integrated aluminium model.

Integrated alumina supply gives aluminium producers stronger cost control. It can also protect margins when external alumina markets tighten or when smelters face higher raw material costs.

The increase in LME aluminium prices was another major earnings driver. Higher benchmark prices improved realisations and helped lift profits even as cost pressures remained a risk across energy-intensive metal production.

For India’s aluminium sector, Nalco’s results show the value of scale and integration. Producers with bauxite, alumina and smelting capacity can benefit more directly when aluminium prices rise and domestic demand expands.

The company’s record performance also supports India’s broader industrial policy goals. Aluminium is essential for electrification, infrastructure, transport lightweighting, renewable energy equipment and downstream manufacturing.

Nalco’s challenge now is to sustain output discipline and margin strength if aluminium prices become more volatile. The market remains exposed to energy costs, global trade measures and supply disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nalco’s record profit shows that India’s aluminium market is gaining strength from domestic consumption, not only export opportunity. The strategic advantage will belong to producers that combine integrated alumina supply, reliable smelting operations and exposure to India’s expanding industrial base.

Trafigura Egyptalum Aluminium Smelter Plan Expands Egypt’s Primary Aluminium Ambition

Trafigura

Trafigura Egyptalum aluminium smelter plans could add a major new primary aluminium production base in Egypt, as commodity trader Trafigura enters exclusive negotiations with Egyptalum and Metallurgical Industries Holding. The proposed project would produce 300,000 t/yr of primary aluminium at Egyptalum’s Nag Hammadi complex.

The Trafigura Egyptalum aluminium smelter project is expected to cost $750mn-900mn. It would also include a 150,000 t/yr anode plant, giving the new facility a more integrated raw material and consumables base.

The Trafigura Egyptalum aluminium smelter plan shows how commodity traders are moving deeper into asset-backed metals supply. Trafigura would act as a minority equity investor, debt provider, raw material supplier and long-term offtake partner.

The agreement also reflects a broader shift in aluminium. Trading houses are no longer only moving metal through global markets. They are helping finance new production capacity, secure offtake and shape where future aluminium units will flow.

Nag Hammadi Project Could Strengthen Egypt’s Aluminium Chain

The proposed smelter would be built at Egyptalum’s existing Nag Hammadi complex. This gives the project an industrial base rather than starting from a completely new site.

A 300,000 t/yr primary aluminium smelter would materially expand Egypt’s aluminium production capability. It would also support local value creation if linked to downstream manufacturing, construction, packaging, transport and electrical applications.

The planned 150,000 t/yr anode plant is strategically important. Carbon anodes are essential consumables in aluminium smelting, and supply reliability can affect operating continuity, production cost and quality.

Primary aluminium is highly power-intensive. This means the project’s competitiveness will depend on electricity pricing, energy reliability, carbon intensity, alumina supply, anode quality and logistics.

Trafigura’s role could help reduce commercial risk. By providing debt, raw materials and long-term offtake, the trader can give the project stronger financing and market access support.

This structure also benefits Trafigura. Long-term offtake gives the company access to physical aluminium units in a market where regional supply disruptions, tariffs and energy costs are increasingly shaping trade flows.

Trading Houses Move Further Into Aluminium Capacity

The Egypt agreement follows Trafigura’s recent investment alongside Glencore and Mercuria in an 800,000 t/yr aluminium smelter in Indonesia being developed by Tsingshan. Together, these moves point to a more aggressive strategy by major traders in aluminium supply.

The logic is clear. Aluminium is becoming more strategic because it supports transport, packaging, power grids, construction, renewable energy and defence-linked manufacturing.

At the same time, primary aluminium supply is constrained by power availability, high capital costs and limited restart options in several western markets. New capacity in energy-competitive regions is therefore gaining more commercial importance.

Egypt offers a potentially strategic location between Europe, the Middle East and Africa. If the project advances, it could serve both regional demand and export markets, depending on cost structure and product mix.

For Egyptalum and MIH, the partnership could bring capital, raw material access and international marketing capability. For Trafigura, it creates another long-term aluminium flow linked to financing and offtake control.

The project remains at the negotiation stage. Its final impact will depend on shareholder structure, financing terms, power arrangements, construction timing and operating economics.

Still, the industrial message is significant. Aluminium investment is increasingly being driven by integrated finance, raw material supply and offtake strategy rather than simple capacity announcements.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Trafigura’s Egyptalum talks show that aluminium capacity is becoming a strategic financing business. The next winners in aluminium will be those that can combine energy access, raw material control, anode supply and long-term offtake.

Vedanta Metals Production Hits Record in FY2025-26 on Efficiency Gains

Vedanta Metals

Vedanta metals production reached a record level in the April 2025-March 2026 fiscal year as efficiency improvements, mine restarts and capacity additions lifted output across key businesses. The Indian mining group reported stronger production in alumina, aluminium, zinc, lead, chrome ore, ferro-chrome and copper cathode.

The strongest increase came from the Lanjigarh alumina refinery, where output rose by 48% on the year to 2.91mn t after the second furnace restarted in the first quarter. This strengthened Vedanta’s upstream aluminium raw material base and improved integration across its aluminium value chain.

Vedanta metals production growth also reflected better utilisation of existing assets. Aluminium output rose by 1% to 2.45mn t, compared with 2.42mn t a year earlier, showing stable primary metal production despite a more challenging cost and energy environment.

Alumina and Base Metals Strengthened Vedanta’s Integrated Platform

The Lanjigarh refinery result was strategically important because alumina availability directly affects aluminium smelter economics. Higher alumina output can reduce exposure to external feedstock volatility and support more stable aluminium production planning.

Zinc and lead production also improved during the year. Combined output reached 1.11mn t, up 2%, supported by better mined metal grades and higher production levels.

This growth reinforced Vedanta’s position across India’s industrial metals chain. Zinc and lead remain important for galvanising, batteries, infrastructure, alloys and manufacturing, while aluminium continues to support transport, power, packaging and construction demand.

Chrome, Ferro-Chrome and Copper Output Added Downstream Depth

Vedanta metals production also benefited from a sharp recovery at Facor, the group’s ferro-alloys subsidiary. Chrome ore production rose by 49% to 371,000t after the restart of the Kalarangiatta mines and expanded environmental clearance at the Ostapal mine.

Ferro-chrome output increased by 21% to 101,000t. This matters because ferro-chrome is a critical input for stainless steel production, linking Vedanta’s chrome ore base to India’s alloy and steelmaking supply chain.

Copper cathode production at the Silvassa smelter rose by 15% to 170,000t. Vedanta attributed the increase to debottlenecking, operational efficiency and more diversified raw material sourcing, all of which improve supply resilience in a tight copper market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vedanta’s record output shows how Indian metals producers are using operational upgrades and mine restarts to increase domestic supply. The bigger strategic point is that India’s industrial growth needs integrated capacity across alumina, aluminium, zinc, ferro-alloys and copper, not only isolated production gains.

Rio Tinto Copper Output Rises as Oyu Tolgoi Offsets Lithium Weakness

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto copper output increased in the first quarter as stronger production from the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia lifted the group’s global copper performance. The UK-Australian miner produced 229,000t of consolidated copper in January-March, up 9% from a year earlier.

Rio Tinto copper output growth was driven mainly by copper in concentrates from Oyu Tolgoi, where production rose by 56% to 102,000t. The ramp-up helped offset weaker concentrate output at Escondida and lower refined copper production at Kennecott.

The first-quarter result shows the changing shape of Rio Tinto’s portfolio. Copper is gaining strategic weight as electrification, grids and industrial infrastructure support long-term demand, while lithium remains more exposed to weather, ramp-up timing and early-stage project execution.

At the same time, Rio Tinto reported higher alumina production but weaker bauxite and lithium output. Heavy rainfall and cyclone-related disruptions affected Australian bauxite mines, while weather events in Argentina reduced lithium carbonate equivalent production.

Copper Growth Strengthens Despite Mixed Mine Performance

Oyu Tolgoi was the strongest contributor to Rio Tinto copper output in the first quarter. Its continued ramp-up in Mongolia lifted copper in concentrates production to 102,000t, reinforcing the mine’s role as one of the group’s most important growth assets.

The result matters because large copper projects are increasingly difficult to bring into stable production. Oyu Tolgoi gives Rio Tinto a major long-life copper source at a time when global mine supply remains vulnerable to grades, permitting delays and operational disruptions.

Escondida delivered a mixed quarter. Refined copper output at the Chilean operation rose by 21% to 16,000t, but concentrates production fell by 14% to 77,000t.

Kennecott in the US was weaker. Refined copper production fell by 20% to 34,000t because of lower anode inventories after unplanned smelter maintenance and reduced concentrator throughput caused by geotechnical constraints.

Rio Tinto kept its full-year copper production guidance unchanged at 800,000-870,000t. This suggests the company sees first-quarter disruptions as manageable within its broader 2026 plan.

The company also began drilling at the Resolution Copper project in Arizona after completing the land exchange in March. Resolution remains strategically important because it could become a major US copper source if development advances.

Rio Tinto copper output therefore carries both short-term and long-term significance. Oyu Tolgoi is already lifting production, while Resolution represents future supply optionality in a market increasingly focused on domestic and allied copper sources.

Lithium Falls as Weather Disrupts Argentina Operations

Rio Tinto’s lithium performance weakened sharply in the first quarter. Attributable lithium carbonate equivalent production fell by 26% on the year to 12,700t.

The decline was caused by heavy rainfall and weather events that disrupted operations at Olaroz and Fenix in Argentina. These disruptions show that lithium brine and carbonate operations remain sensitive to weather, water balance and site logistics.

The continued ramp-up at the Rincón starter plant partly offset the production impact. Rincón is important for Rio Tinto’s lithium strategy because it supports the company’s expansion into battery materials.

Rio Tinto maintained its 2026 LCE production guidance at 61,000-64,000t. First production from Fenix 1B and Sal de Vida remains on track for the second half of 2026.

The aluminium chain also showed mixed results. Primary aluminium output rose by 1% on the year to 835,000t, but fell by 2% from the previous quarter.

Alumina production increased by 6% to 2.04mn t, while bauxite production fell by 11% to 13.28mn t. Heavy rainfall at Weipa in Queensland and cyclone-related shutdowns at Weipa and Gove reduced bauxite output.

Recycled aluminium production also fell by 8% to 61,000t. Rio Tinto kept 2026 guidance unchanged for primary aluminium, alumina and bauxite, indicating confidence in recovery through the year.

The first-quarter data show a portfolio with different operating pressures. Copper is benefiting from major mine ramp-up, lithium is facing weather disruption, and aluminium raw materials are exposed to Australian climate events.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rio Tinto’s first quarter shows why diversified miners need both growth assets and operational resilience. Oyu Tolgoi is strengthening Rio Tinto copper output, but weather-linked lithium and bauxite disruptions show that energy-transition supply chains remain exposed to physical operating risk.

CBA Aluminium Sale Clears Brazil Antitrust Review as Chalco and Rio Tinto Gain Control

CBA

CBA aluminium sale has cleared Brazil’s antitrust review after Cade approved the transaction with no restrictions. The decision allows China’s Aluminum Corporation, Chalco, and Rio Tinto to move closer to closing their acquisition of a 68.6% controlling stake in Brazilian aluminium producer CBA.

The CBA aluminium sale is strategically important because CBA is Brazil’s last remaining domestic aluminium producer. The company became especially significant after Vale sold its aluminium assets to Hydro in 2016, leaving CBA as the country’s main integrated aluminium platform.

The deal is valued at R4.69 billion, or about $900 million. Chalco and Rio Tinto also plan a tender offer to jointly acquire the remaining shares. Cade’s approval removes the last major regulatory hurdle before closing.

Integrated Aluminium Assets Give the Deal Industrial Weight

CBA operates across the full aluminium value chain. Its platform includes bauxite mining, alumina refining, primary aluminium smelting, downstream processing, recycled aluminium production, and associated power supply.

This integrated structure gives the transaction more strategic value than a simple equity acquisition. Chalco and Rio Tinto are gaining exposure to upstream raw materials, refining capacity, smelting assets, fabrication capability, and recycling operations in one company.

CBA currently operates three producing bauxite mines with combined output of about 2mn t/yr. It also has 800,000 t/yr of alumina capacity, 430,000 t/yr of primary aluminium smelting capacity, and 215,000 t/yr of downstream processing capacity.

Brazil’s Aluminium Chain Enters a New Ownership Phase

The CBA aluminium sale could reshape Brazil’s aluminium industry by bringing two major global players deeper into the country’s industrial base. Chalco adds Chinese aluminium scale and market reach, while Rio Tinto brings global mining and aluminium experience.

Brazil’s development bank Bndes has also approved R715.9mn in funding to upgrade an aluminium production unit in São Paulo. That support suggests Brazil still sees aluminium as an industrial priority, even as ownership becomes more international.

For Brazil, the key issue will be whether the new ownership structure strengthens local production, investment, and downstream competitiveness. For global aluminium markets, the transaction reinforces the value of integrated assets at a time when bauxite, alumina, power, recycling, and low-carbon production routes are becoming increasingly strategic.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The CBA transaction shows that integrated aluminium assets remain highly valuable in a fragmented global supply chain. Brazil keeps the industrial base, but future competitiveness will depend on whether new ownership turns scale into investment, modernization, and stronger downstream capacity.

Rio Tinto Increases Aluminium and Copper Production in 2024, Sets Higher Targets for 2025

Rio Tinto

Strong Growth in Bauxite and Aluminium Output

Rio Tinto, a leading UK-Australian mining firm, reported increased bauxite and aluminium production in 2024, surpassing expectations. The company extracted 58.7 million tonnes of bauxite, exceeding its guidance range of 53-56 million tonnes. Despite a 3% decline in alumina production, Rio Tinto achieved 7.3 million tonnes, reaching the upper limit of its revised 7-7.3 million tonne guidance.

The Amrun bauxite mine in Queensland, with a 10 million tonne per year capacity, operated above its expected levels. Meanwhile, aluminium production rose by 1% to 3.3 million tonnes, supported by the Kitimat plant in Canada, which reached full capacity in late 2023, and Rio Tinto’s ownership of the New Zealand Aluminium Smelter.

Copper and Alumina Expansion Plans for 2025

Rio Tinto revised its 2025 production targets, slightly increasing projections for bauxite, alumina, and aluminium. The company expects:

• 57-59 million tonnes of bauxite
• 7.4-7.8 million tonnes of alumina
• 3.25-3.45 million tonnes of aluminium

The New Zealand Aluminium Smelter will continue ramping up in early 2025, while Rio Tinto aims to complete the AP60 low-carbon aluminium smelter expansion in Quebec, Canada, by 2026. This project will increase aluminium output by 160,000 tonnes per year to 220,000 tonnes per year.

Copper Production Strategy and Expansion Projects

Rio Tinto modified its copper reporting metrics, consolidating mined and refined copper output into a single figure. The company targets 780,000-850,000 tonnes of copper production in 2025, up from 792,000 tonnes in 2024.

Growth will primarily come from:

• The Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, which ramped up to 168,100 tonnes per year in 2024.

• The North Rim Skarn copper project near Salt Lake City, US, set to launch in mid-2025 with an expected output of 250,000 tonnes per year.

With rising global demand for low-carbon aluminium and copper, Rio Tinto’s production increases could significantly impact global supply chains and metal prices.

Weda Bay Power Shift Favors Aluminium as Nickel Pig Iron Margins Weaken

Weda Bay

Weda Bay power shift plans could redirect electricity from nickel pig iron smelters toward aluminium production in Indonesia’s Weda Bay Industrial Park. The move shows how power allocation is becoming a strategic production tool when aluminium margins exceed nickel margins.

Weda Bay power shift discussions involve scaling back output at 22 NPI smelting operations in June. Market sources said the power would be redirected to Juwan, the park’s sole operating aluminium facility.

Weda Bay power shift strategy reflects changing metal economics. NPI producers are under pressure from higher nickel ore costs and weaker margins, while aluminium smelters are benefiting from firmer prices and Middle East supply concerns.

Juwan is a joint venture between Tsingshan and Xinfa, with nameplate capacity of 250,000 t/yr. The timing and scale of any NPI production cuts remain unclear.

Aluminium Margins Pull Power Away From NPI

The planned power reallocation highlights the importance of electricity in Indonesian metals production. Both NPI and aluminium smelting are power-intensive, so the most profitable metal can influence where electricity is directed.

Aluminium prices have strengthened because of supply disruption linked to the Middle East. The region accounts for about 9% of global aluminium output, making any disruption significant for global balance.

The LME aluminium cash official price rose to a four-year high of $3,767.50/t on 14 May before closing at $3,636/t on 18 May. These higher prices have improved aluminium smelting margins.

NPI margins are moving in the opposite direction. Rising nickel ore costs and weaker profitability have reduced the incentive to maintain full output at some Indonesian smelters.

This creates a clear commercial logic. If electricity is constrained or strategically controlled, producers may prefer to allocate power toward aluminium rather than lower-margin NPI.

NPI Cuts Could Tighten High-Grade Nickel Units

Any sustained reduction in Weda Bay NPI output could support nickel pig iron prices, especially for higher-grade material. Higher-grade NPI remains important for stainless steel producers that need nickel-rich blending units.

Demand for higher-grade NPI has stayed relatively firm because stainless mills are using more scrap. Greater scrap use can increase the need for higher-nickel inputs to balance melt chemistry.

The situation also shows how Indonesia’s nickel and aluminium industries are becoming increasingly connected through infrastructure. Power, ports, industrial parks and Chinese-backed investment now shape multiple metal supply chains at once.

Tsingshan is also building a new aluminium project at Weda Bay with designed capacity of 800,000 t/yr. The first 400,000 t/yr phase is expected to start by the end of this year or in early 2027.

That expansion could make power allocation even more important. If aluminium capacity grows while NPI margins remain weak, Weda Bay may increasingly prioritise aluminium production over nickel pig iron during periods of electricity constraint.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Weda Bay shows that Indonesia’s industrial parks are becoming flexible metal platforms, not single-commodity hubs. When aluminium margins beat NPI margins, electricity itself becomes the deciding raw material.

Aluminium Bahrain Profits Surge as Prices Offset War-Linked Output Losses

Aluminium Bahrain

Aluminium Bahrain profits rose sharply in the first quarter as higher London Metal Exchange aluminium prices and stronger delivery premiums outweighed lower production and sales volumes. The company reported profit of 75.3mn Bahraini dinars, more than four times the level recorded a year earlier.

Aluminium Bahrain profits were supported by a 22% year-on-year increase in average LME three-month aluminium prices to $3,195/t. Stronger regional premiums also helped lift earnings during a period of tightening aluminium supply.

Aluminium Bahrain profits still fell by almost a third from the previous quarter because of production disruption and shipping constraints linked to the Iran war. The company’s output and deliveries both declined as the Strait of Hormuz disruption affected raw material and product flows.

The result shows how aluminium producers can benefit from higher prices during supply shocks, while still facing direct operational pressure when logistics and plant reliability are disrupted.

Hormuz Disruption Cuts Alba Output and Sales

Alba produced 339,734t of aluminium in the first quarter, down 14% from a year earlier. Sales fell by 17% to 312,563t over the same period.

The volume decline followed Alba’s decision on 16 March to shut three reduction lines totalling about 300,000 t/yr of capacity. That represented around 19% of the company’s total output capacity.

The shutdown was a response to supply constraints caused by shipping delays through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway is critical for Gulf industrial supply chains, including alumina, carbon products, spare parts and aluminium exports.

Alba’s facilities were then damaged by a missile strike on 28 March, adding physical asset risk to the logistics disruption. This turned a regional shipping issue into a direct production and repair challenge.

Despite lower volumes, value-added products remained important. They accounted for 71% of Alba’s sales, unchanged from a year earlier.

That product mix matters because value-added aluminium typically carries better margins and stronger customer relationships than standard ingot. In a disrupted market, maintaining value-added sales helps protect earnings quality.

Dunkerque Deal Could Expand Alba’s European Footprint

Alba’s agreement to acquire Aluminium Dunkerque in France adds a strategic European dimension to its current operating challenges. The company announced the acquisition plan on 4 March and signed a share purchase agreement on 6 May.

The deal remains subject to regulatory approval. If completed, it would give Alba a major European aluminium production asset at a time when western buyers are prioritising supply security.

The acquisition could also diversify Alba’s geographic risk. Current disruption in the Gulf has shown the vulnerability of aluminium producers exposed to Middle East shipping routes and regional conflict.

A European asset would give Alba closer access to automotive, packaging, construction and industrial customers in the region. It could also support the company’s value-added product strategy.

However, the timing is complex. Alba must manage reduced output, damaged facilities and supply-chain disruption at home while pursuing a major overseas acquisition.

For the aluminium market, Alba’s first-quarter result reinforces the current contradiction. Prices and premiums are high because supply is tight, but the same disruption creating stronger pricing is also cutting physical production.

The key issue is how quickly Alba can stabilise operations and restore capacity. If Middle East disruption continues, Gulf aluminium supply could remain constrained, supporting premiums but limiting volumes available to customers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Alba’s quarter shows that higher aluminium prices cannot fully offset operational exposure to war, shipping disruption and plant damage. The Dunkerque acquisition may become more strategically valuable if Gulf producers need geographic diversification to protect long-term customer supply.

Qatalum Shutdown Raises Aluminium Supply Risk After Qatar LNG Disruption

Hydro LNG

Qatalum shutdown plans have raised fresh aluminium supply concerns after Hydro said its Qatar-based joint venture had started a controlled closure of aluminium operations. The decision followed the shutdown of LNG production by its energy supplier, QatarEnergy, after disruption at the Ras Laffan industrial complex.

Hydro said the Qatalum shutdown is expected to be completed by the end of March. If the smelter is fully closed, restarting operations could take 6-12 months, making the event a potentially significant supply-side shock for primary aluminium and value-added products.

Qatalum is a 50:50 joint venture between Hydro and Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing. The operation has 636,000 t/yr of primary aluminium capacity and a 664,000 t/yr casthouse, making it an important producer in the Gulf aluminium supply chain.

Energy Disruption Exposes Smelter Vulnerability

Aluminium smelting is highly exposed to power and energy reliability because production depends on continuous electricity supply. A controlled shutdown can protect equipment and safety, but a full closure creates major restart complexity.

Hydro has issued a force majeure notice to Qatalum customers. This signals that supply commitments may be affected as the company manages the operational impact of the energy disruption.

The wider industrial effect could extend beyond aluminium. Production of some downstream products, including urea, polymers, and methanol, has also been disrupted, showing how energy infrastructure risks can spread across multiple industrial value chains.

Hormuz Risk Supports Demand for Aluminium Value-Added Products

Concerns over prolonged shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz are already affecting aluminium buying behavior. Demand for aluminium value-added products from Asian consumers has increased over the past two days as buyers assess supply risk from the Middle East.

This matters because the Gulf is a major hub for energy-intensive aluminium production. Any prolonged disruption could tighten availability of billets, slabs, foundry alloys, and other value-added aluminium products used in extrusion, rolling, casting, construction, transport, and packaging.

The Qatalum shutdown also highlights the strategic link between energy security and metals supply. Aluminium producers with stable power access may gain stronger pricing power if Middle East logistics and production risks persist.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Qatalum shutdown shows how quickly energy conflict can become a metals supply event. Aluminium markets should watch not only smelter capacity, but also LNG infrastructure, power reliability, and Hormuz shipping risk.

Alumina Market Faces Supply Challenges: What’s Next for 2025?

Aluminium

As alumina prices soared to record highs in late 2024, global markets are bracing for more supply disruptions in the coming year. Alumina, the key raw material for aluminium production, faced significant supply shortages due to a combination of environmental regulations, production stoppages, and logistical challenges across major supplying countries. While new projects are expected to alleviate the pressure in 2025, the alumina market remains vulnerable to supply shocks that could impact aluminium prices in the near future.

Supply Disruptions Drive Alumina Prices to Record Levels

Alumina prices surged by over 70% in 2024, with prices peaking above $780 per ton in both China and Australia by November. This price spike was driven by multiple disruptions across the globe, including lower exports from Australia, logistical bottlenecks in Brazil, and production suspensions in Guinea.

In Australia, the tightening of environmental regulations and a fire-related disruption in Queensland affected alumina production, leading to force majeure declarations from major suppliers like Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, in Brazil, Alcoa also declared force majeure in November due to the closure of the Santarem harbor, which blocked access to one of the country’s main bauxite export terminals.

In Guinea, seasonal rains and infrastructure issues led to a nearly 40% reduction in bauxite shipments. Despite these challenges, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) indicated that the suspension would not immediately impact its operations, although concerns about long-term supply remained.

Demand and Supply Outlook for 2025

The global aluminium production continued to rise in 2024, particularly in China, where new production capacities came online. Despite this, China’s alumina production has failed to keep pace with aluminium output, leading to a sharp rise in alumina imports. By the end of September, China had imported over 123 million tons of alumina, a 33% increase compared to the same period in 2023.

However, relief may be on the horizon. In 2025, China is set to add more than 13 million tons of new alumina capacity, while other key players, including India’s Vedanta Resources and Guinea’s EGA, are planning significant new alumina refining projects that could ease the global supply squeeze by 2026. UBS forecasts a surplus of 960,000 tons of alumina in China next year, a dramatic turnaround from the deficit observed in 2024.

Despite these optimistic forecasts, challenges remain. The tightness in bauxite supply—especially from Guinea, which supplies 72% of China’s alumina imports—could continue to limit alumina production in China. Environmental regulations in China’s key bauxite-producing provinces, coupled with logistical issues in Guinea, mean that alumina markets will likely remain susceptible to disruptions throughout 2025.

Conclusion

While new alumina production capacities are expected to ease supply pressures in the coming years, the market remains highly vulnerable to supply shocks. Stakeholders in the alumina and aluminium industries will need to closely monitor the situation in major producing regions, particularly in Guinea and China, as these could have significant implications for aluminium prices in 2025. With alumina supply still concentrated in a few key regions, the risk of further disruptions remains high, and the industry must prepare for potential volatility.

India aluminium production 2047 targets 37mn t and value-added exports

India aluminium

India aluminium production 2047 aims to reach 37mn t per year. Output steps up to 12mn t in 2030 and 25mn t in 2040. India also targets over 12kg per-capita consumption from 3.5kg today. It plans to meet all domestic aluminium demand through local production.

Supply security and upstream targets

The policy prioritizes bauxite and alumina self-reliance by 2035. India produced 24mn t of bauxite in 2024 with rising imports. Alumina output reached 7.6mn t in 2024, with 2.5mn t imported. However, achieving self-reliance by 2035 demands mine approvals and capital. Authorities also plan to curb scrap import dependence above 85%.

Downstream value-add and export goals

The strategy shifts exports from primary ingot to value-added products. About 76% of exports are primary; value-added trails China’s 95% share. Officials aim to maximize conversion by 2035 and export mix by 2047. India aluminium production 2047 also raises global market share ambitions. The target is 10% by 2047, up from 3.8% in 2023. Exports should reach 3.8mn t in 2030 and 9.1mn t by 2047. Therefore, capital, power, and logistics must scale alongside smelting expansions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India aluminium production 2047 will hinge on affordable power and timely mine permitting. Grid decarbonization and rail upgrades will determine export competitiveness for value-added products. Investors should track policy execution at provincial level and scrap-recycling build-out.