Chinese Cobalt Prices Expected to Decline Further in 2025 Amid Rising Supply and Weak Demand

Chinese Cobalt Manufacturing

Oversupply and Weak Demand to Push Cobalt Prices Lower

The Chinese cobalt market is set to experience further price declines in 2025, as increasing nickel and copper production, from which cobalt is a by-product, leads to an oversupply that buyers are struggling to absorb.

Currently, Chinese-origin cobalt metal traded in Europe has already seen significant pressure due to a lack of floor pricing on raw materials, a trend expected to persist into the new year. Market insiders suggest that cobalt prices could drop below $9/lb, as fully integrated Chinese producers view cobalt as a credit to their primary metal production, particularly nickel and copper.

For these refiners, cobalt is a secondary concern. As one trading firm explained, some Chinese producers operate with production costs as low as $4,000 per ton while selling at $9,000 per ton. Even if they incur a $50 million loss on cobalt, they may still profit significantly from copper production, which can generate up to $700 million in gains.

Chinese Refiners Likely to Continue Production at a Loss

Unlike non-Chinese refiners, which may curtail supply if cobalt prices fall below $9/lb, some Chinese integrated mining firms and refiners could continue refining hydroxide into metal at a loss-making $7-8/lb.

While there is speculation that some Chinese metal producers may attempt to negotiate floor prices in their contracts, it remains uncertain whether these efforts will succeed. Market participants are closely watching how these negotiations unfold, as they could provide some level of price support if successful.

Global Nickel and Copper Growth to Sustain Cobalt Oversupply

The primary factor driving cobalt’s oversupply is the continued expansion of nickel and copper production, as cobalt is a by-product of both metals.

• Nickel production is set to rise again in 2025 with the launch of new Class 1 nickel refineries in China and Indonesia. This will likely keep London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month official nickel prices within the $15,000-17,000 per ton range, significantly lower than the $30,000 per ton peak in early 2023.

• Copper production is also projected to increase due to expansions at mines such as Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Although cobalt sales represent only a minor portion of copper mining revenues, producers still aim to extract value from it as a credit.

Weakened Demand from EV and Chemicals Sectors Further Pressures Prices

While cobalt demand in China has surged by 40%, this has not been enough to counteract weakening demand in other regions, particularly in Europe:

• The electric vehicle (EV) sector in Europe has slowed down, leading to reduced demand for cathode active materials like cobalt.

• The European chemicals industry, particularly in Germany, has struggled due to rising energy costs and broader economic challenges.

Even if prices do increase, China has ample spare refining capacity and could use third-party tolling arrangements to process hydroxide into metal, further maintaining downward price pressure.

Peak Oversupply May Be Near, But Price Recovery Remains Uncertain

Some market participants believe that cobalt hydroxide oversupply may have already peaked. The shift towards lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which do not use cobalt, has significantly impacted the demand for nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery chemistries, leading to lower demand for cobalt sulfate and cobalt hydroxide.

However, despite this potential supply peak, weak demand across key industrial sectors suggests that cobalt prices are unlikely to see a strong recovery in the near term.

Conclusion

In 2025, Chinese cobalt prices are expected to remain under pressure due to rising nickel and copper production, ongoing oversupply, and weak demand from the European EV and chemicals sectors. While some believe that the cobalt market may be nearing peak oversupply, prices are unlikely to experience significant upward momentum unless demand rebounds sharply or supply reductions occur.

Canada extends Chinese metal tariff exemptions as supply chains realign

Canada, Mark Joseph Carney

Canada extends Chinese metal tariff exemptions by renewing relief on 66 steel and aluminum products. Canada extends Chinese metal tariff exemptions during Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Beijing visit. As a result, Ottawa signals a softer stance amid rising pressure from US trade policy.

Canada imposed 25% tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum in 2024 to shield domestic producers from global oversupply. However, manufacturers later flagged gaps in local availability for specific inputs. Therefore, Canada carved out exemptions for products it cannot source at scale.

What the 2026 exemption expansion covers

The updated list includes steel wire, stainless sheets and plates, and steel pipe and tube. It also includes aluminum alloy bars and rods, plus selected aluminum foil grades. Meanwhile, some exemptions appear company-specific, while others apply to all importers.

Canada widened the program for 2026 by extending the 66 exemptions and adding 13 more items. The government has not yet detailed the added products. Consequently, buyers may delay procurement decisions until final tariff guidance clarifies coverage.

Why the US factor is driving Canada’s trade posture

Canada’s steel sector has faced sustained strain since the US imposed 50% tariffs on steel imports in 2025. That shift pressured Canadian mills that rely on the US as a primary export outlet. Meanwhile, Canadian import demand for exempt products remained significant, rising from 2023 to 2024 before easing last year.

Canada extends Chinese metal tariff exemptions as it balances domestic protection with industrial continuity. The policy also aligns with a wider package that lowers tariffs for 49,000 Chinese EV imports. Therefore, metals and mobility now move together in Canada’s trade playbook.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This exemption framework looks like targeted de-risking, not a full policy reversal. However, it increases the need for transparent product definitions and compliance controls. The winners will be fabricators that secure inputs without reopening tariff uncertainty.

SHFE Indonesian Nickel Cathode Brands Strengthen Indonesia’s Class I Nickel Role

The Shanghai Futures Exchange

SHFE Indonesian nickel cathode brands have gained a major credibility boost after the Shanghai Futures Exchange approved two Indonesian-produced nickel cathode brands for delivery against SHFE contracts. The approvals cover PTENICO from Eternal Nickel Industry and DX zwdx from CNGR Dingxing New Energy.

The approvals mark an important step in Indonesia’s move from nickel ore and intermediate products toward exchange-deliverable Class I nickel. Indonesia has already become the world’s dominant nickel processing hub, but exchange approval gives its refined metal greater financial-market recognition.

SHFE Indonesian nickel cathode brands also reinforce the role of Chinese-backed industrial parks in building Indonesia’s downstream nickel value chain. Both approved producers are linked to major Chinese groups with strong positions in stainless steel or battery materials.

The development matters because exchange-deliverable nickel sits at the intersection of physical supply, futures market liquidity and industrial procurement. Approval by SHFE gives the brands wider acceptance among Chinese market participants and strengthens Indonesia’s role in Class I nickel trade.

Tsingshan and CNGR Extend Indonesia’s Refined Nickel Platform

Eternal Nickel Industry’s PTENICO brand was approved by SHFE after previously being listed on the London Metal Exchange on 16 December 2025. The company is a subsidiary of Chinese stainless steel producer Tsingshan Holding Group.

The plant is located in the Weda Bay Industrial Park in Halmahera, North Maluku. It uses an electrolytic process and has 50,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity, with nickel content of 99.96%.

Tsingshan’s involvement is strategically important. The group transformed global nickel markets through Indonesian nickel pig iron and stainless steel expansion, and it is now extending that influence into refined Class I nickel.

CNGR Dingxing New Energy’s DX zwdx brand was also approved by SHFE. The plant is located at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park and also uses an electrolytic process. It has 50,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity, with nickel content of 99.96%.

CNGR Dingxing is a subsidiary of CNGR, a major Chinese lithium-ion battery cathode active material precursor producer. This gives the brand a direct connection to battery materials supply chains, not only stainless steel demand.

The LME accepted CNGR Dingxing’s Indonesian nickel cathode brand in May 2024. It also approved cobalt cathode produced by CNGR in Qinzhou, Guangxi, in March, showing the company’s expanding exchange-approved metals footprint.

Together, PTENICO and DX zwdx represent 100,000 t/yr of Indonesian nickel cathode capacity. Their SHFE approval gives Indonesia a stronger position in futures-linked refined nickel supply.

Exchange Approval Changes Nickel Market Positioning

The two brands are the first Indonesian-produced nickel cathodes approved by SHFE for delivery. That is significant because Indonesia’s nickel rise was initially built around ore, nickel pig iron, ferronickel, matte and mixed hydroxide precipitate.

Exchange-deliverable cathode is a different market category. It requires tighter quality control, brand recognition and acceptance by financial and physical market users.

SHFE has approved Chinese-produced nickel cathode brands totalling 121,000 t since 2024. Adding Indonesian brands expands the pool of deliverable material and shows how Indonesia is being integrated into China’s nickel pricing and delivery system.

This could gradually influence nickel market structure. More deliverable Indonesian metal may improve flexibility for Chinese buyers, increase acceptable supply for futures settlement and strengthen the link between Indonesian production and Chinese exchange pricing.

The approvals also come during a period of Class I nickel oversupply. LME and SHFE inventories have risen as new refined nickel capacity has entered the market faster than demand growth from batteries and alloys.

Against that backdrop, brand approval can become a competitive advantage. Producers with exchange-deliverable status may have better access to financing, trade channels and customers that require recognised specifications.

For Indonesia, the approval supports a broader industrial policy objective. The country wants to capture more value from its nickel resources by moving beyond raw ore and intermediate exports into higher-value metal and battery materials.

For China, the approvals deepen supply-chain integration with Indonesian assets. Chinese companies are not only investing in Indonesian mines and smelters; they are building exchange-recognised refined metal capacity that can serve Chinese industrial and financial markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SHFE approval of Indonesian nickel cathode brands confirms that Indonesia is moving deeper into Class I nickel, not only bulk stainless and battery intermediates. The strategic issue now is whether this new exchange-deliverable capacity strengthens market liquidity or adds further pressure to an already oversupplied refined nickel market.

LME Copper Cathode Supply Could Rise as Chinese Smelters Push EQ Listings

Chinese Copper

LME copper cathode supply could increase as more Chinese smelters seek to register equivalent quality cathodes on the London Metal Exchange. The move reflects a push to capture higher premiums for material that is close to LME-registered brands in quality.

The near-term impact on LME copper cathode supply is likely to be limited. However, more registrations could gradually widen deliverable copper availability and give buyers more alternatives to traditional registered cathode brands.

Chinese smelters are targeting the premium gap between EQ cathode and fully registered material. African-origin registered copper usually earns a higher premium than EQ cathode, but it still trades below Chilean registered brands because many African cathodes are solvent-extraction and electrowinning products with slightly higher impurity levels.

DRC Cathode Listings Expand China-Linked LME Supply

The London Metal Exchange recently approved China Nonferrous Mining’s SMD copper cathode brand for listing. The brand is produced at the Deziwa project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has copper cathode capacity of 80,000 t/yr.

The Deziwa project is jointly owned by CNMC and the DRC’s state-owned mining company. It hosts 4.6mn t of copper metal resources and 420,000t of cobalt metal resources, giving it strategic value across both copper and battery metal supply chains.

CNMC’s production profile also shows a shift toward more refined copper output. The group produced 130,232t of copper cathode in 2025, up 3% from a year earlier, while copper blister output fell by 33% to 192,266t.

The LME has also approved CMOC’s TFM 1 copper cathode brand for listing. That brand is produced at Tenke Fungurume in the DRC, reinforcing the country’s growing role in exchange-deliverable copper supply.

Premium Strategy Could Reshape Refined Copper Trade Flows

LME copper cathode supply strategy is becoming more important as Chinese-linked producers look to improve market access and price realisation. Listing cathode brands can improve buyer acceptance, increase liquidity and narrow discounts against established registered brands.

The DRC is already China’s largest source of copper cathode imports. China imported 1.44mn t of copper cathode from the DRC in 2025, equal to 37.6% of total imports.

More LME-approved DRC brands could change how buyers view African cathode. If quality, documentation and deliverability improve, some buyers may become less dependent on higher-premium registered material from other origins.

Still, the immediate effect should remain modest. LME registration does not automatically mean large volumes will flow onto warrant, but it does increase optionality for producers, traders and consumers in a market where brand status affects pricing power.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Chinese EQ cathode push shows that copper competition is moving into brand approval, deliverability and premium capture. The bigger implication is that DRC copper is becoming not only a Chinese import source, but a growing part of the LME-recognised refined copper system.

Inner Mongolia Luneng rare earth metal plant boosts PrNd supply and prices

Inner Mongolia Luneng rare earth

The Inner Mongolia Luneng rare earth metal plant marks another expansion in China's strategic magnet materials capacity. The Inner Mongolia Luneng rare earth metal plant will add 10,000 t/yr of praseodymium-neodymium metal capacity in Baotou. As a result, the Inner Mongolia Luneng rare earth metal plant will further tighten China’s grip on the global rare earth magnet supply chain.

Baotou strengthens its role as China’s rare earth capital

Inner Mongolia Luneng has secured government approval to build a high-purity rare earth metal line in Baotou. The project will sit inside the rare earth new materials industrial complex at Bayan Obo industrial park. This location links the plant directly to upstream rare earth resources and downstream alloy and magnet makers.

The company will invest Yn265.93mn ($37.35mn) to construct the 10,000 t/yr PrNd metal facility. Construction is expected to take 24 months, although no firm start-up date has been disclosed. However, the project clearly targets surging demand from new energy vehicles, wind turbines, robotics and electronics.

Praseodymium-neodymium metal is the core raw material for high-performance permanent magnets. These magnets power traction motors in EVs and generators in modern wind turbines. Therefore, any new PrNd metal capacity in Baotou has direct implications for the global energy transition supply chain.

Praseodymium-neodymium prices climb on tighter spot supply

Spot prices for praseodymium-neodymium metal have risen sharply since late October. Higher oxide feedstock costs, tighter spot availability and stronger magnet sector purchases all support the uptrend. Futures trading on the Zhonglianjin platform has also pushed oxide prices higher, feeding through to metal.

Prices for 99.9pc PrNd metal increased to Yn680-685/kg ex-works by 10 November. That mid-point represents an 11pc gain from late October levels. Meanwhile, 99pc PrNd oxide prices climbed nearly 10pc to Yn557-562/kg over the same period. These moves highlight how quickly sentiment can shift in a relatively concentrated market.

Magnet producers are responding to firm orders from EV, wind and consumer electronics customers. As a result, they are willing to pay higher prices to secure PrNd metal and oxide supplies. In this context, Baotou’s new high-purity capacity could ease domestic tightness while reinforcing China’s pricing influence worldwide.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Luneng’s new PrNd metal project underlines how China continues to invest aggressively along the rare earth magnet value chain. Additional high-purity capacity in Baotou will support local magnet makers but may deepen import dependence for overseas OEMs. Global EV and wind players will closely watch whether new non-Chinese PrNd projects can meaningfully diversify supply before this plant comes online.

Hanrui Indonesian Nickel Smelter Nears Completion With Hot Commissioning Start

Hanrui Indonesian

Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter development has moved into hot commissioning, signalling that Nanjing Hanrui’s delayed nickel matte project in Central Sulawesi is nearing completion. The Chinese cobalt producer launched the commissioning phase on 10 April at the Huabao Industrial Park in Morowali.

The Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter is designed to produce 20,000 t/yr of nickel matte on a nickel metal equivalent basis. The project will use oxygen-enriched continuous blowing technology to convert nickel feedstock into matte for downstream processing.

Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter progress matters because Indonesia remains the centre of global nickel capacity growth. New matte projects help connect Indonesian nickel resources with battery materials supply chains, especially where producers need feedstock for nickel sulphate and other battery-grade products.

Hot Commissioning Marks Final Step Before Commercial Output

Hot commissioning means production lines are being tested under operating conditions before full commercial production begins. This stage is important because it tests equipment integration, process stability, safety systems and product quality.

Hanrui had originally planned to start production in May 2025, but later deferred the schedule to March 2026. The start of hot commissioning now suggests the company is moving closer to operational readiness after earlier delays.

The project’s location in Morowali gives Hanrui access to one of Indonesia’s most important nickel industrial clusters. Morowali has become a major processing centre for Chinese-backed nickel investments, supported by integrated infrastructure, smelting capacity and downstream materials ambitions.

Chinese Producers Expand Nickel Matte Capacity in Indonesia

Hanrui’s project forms part of a broader Chinese investment wave in Indonesian nickel processing. Chinese companies are building matte, mixed hydroxide precipitate, ferronickel and other nickel products to serve both stainless steel and battery markets.

Huayou has also started construction of its Huaxing nickel matte project at the Indonesia Pomalaa Industry Park. That project is planned for 40,000 t/yr of nickel matte on a nickel metal equivalent basis, although Huayou has not disclosed its construction timeline or start-up date.

The expansion of nickel matte capacity gives Chinese producers more flexibility in feedstock flows. It also strengthens Indonesia’s position as a processing base, not only an ore supplier.

However, new capacity still faces execution risks. Power supply, sulphur availability, environmental controls, commissioning performance and market prices will determine how quickly these projects move from nameplate capacity to stable commercial production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hanrui’s hot commissioning shows that Indonesia’s nickel buildout continues despite delays and market uncertainty. The strategic issue is whether new matte capacity can ramp smoothly enough to support battery supply chains without adding further pressure to an already competitive nickel market.

Outokumpu US chromium metal investment targets high-value aerospace and defence demand

Outokumpu US chromium metal

Outokumpu US chromium metal investment marks a strategic move into premium specialty metals for aerospace, defence and energy markets. The New Hampshire pilot plant will produce enriched ferro-chrome at 65pc Cr and chromium metal at 90pc Cr purity. As a result, Outokumpu US chromium metal investment positions the group closer to high-spec alloy supply chains in North America.

Low-carbon chromium technology and staged capacity build-out

Outokumpu is using proprietary low-carbon technology at the new US pilot plant. The facility is scheduled to start operations in the first half of 2027, following earlier R&D work at its Boston laboratory opened in 2024. Therefore, Outokumpu US chromium metal investment clearly links regional technology development with commercial-scale metals production.

The $45mn pilot project will validate process performance, carbon intensity and product quality for enriched ferro-chrome and chromium metal. After the pilot phase, Outokumpu plans an industrial-scale plant with 10,000 t/yr capacity, targeted for 2029-30 start-up. This staged approach reduces scale-up risk while building customer confidence in long-term chromium supply.

Premium chromium metal for aerospace and critical sectors

Outokumpu aims to supply premium-priced chromium metal into high-value aerospace, defence and energy applications. Chromium metal already trades at a wide pricing spread by origin and specification, with European material priced well above Chinese and Russian supply. European-origin chromium for aerospace and defence often sits at or above the top of current market assessments, reinforcing the value of qualifying high-purity product.

By anchoring production in the US, Outokumpu can offer a Western, lower-carbon source of chromium metal and enriched ferro-chrome. This strengthens regional resilience for aero-engine alloys, superalloys and advanced stainless grades. In turn, the Outokumpu US chromium metal investment moves the company’s ferro-chrome business further into the specialty metals space, as highlighted by chief technology officer Stefan Erdmann.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu is reading the market correctly by aligning chromium metal capacity with aerospace and defence re-shoring trends. If the new technology delivers both lower carbon and tight specifications, the company could secure a durable price premium despite global oversupply risks. The key watchpoints now are qualification timelines with major alloy producers and how quickly industrial-scale capacity locks in long-term offtake.

Henan Zhongfu Egyptian Aluminium Complex Plans Signal China’s Downstream Expansion

Henan Zhongfu Industrial

Henan Zhongfu Egyptian aluminium complex plans could create a major new downstream manufacturing base in the Suez Canal Economic Zone. The Chinese aluminium producer is planning to establish a $2bn facility in Egypt, strengthening its access to Middle Eastern, African and European markets.

The planned Henan Zhongfu Egyptian aluminium complex was discussed during a meeting between Egyptian prime minister Moustafa Madbouly and a delegation from the Chinese company. Egypt said it is ready to provide full support for the project as part of its wider push to advance industrial development.

The Henan Zhongfu Egyptian aluminium complex would cover 1mn m² in the East Port Said area of the Suez Canal Economic Zone. The project is expected to create about 3,000 direct jobs and become the first facility of its kind in the area.

Egypt Targets Higher-Value Aluminium Manufacturing

The project fits Egypt’s strategy to localise higher-value aluminium industries and reduce production gaps. Rather than focusing only on basic metal supply, the planned facility is expected to support downstream products for packaging, automotive and construction applications.

These markets are important because they consume rolled aluminium and other fabricated products with higher added value than primary metal. Packaging requires aluminium sheet and foil. Automotive applications increasingly use aluminium for lightweighting. Construction uses aluminium in profiles, panels, façades and structural systems.

The Suez Canal Economic Zone gives the project a strong logistical position. East Port Said can support exports into Europe, the Middle East and Africa, while also serving Egypt’s domestic industrial market.

For Egypt, the investment could strengthen manufacturing depth and attract more industrial supply-chain activity around aluminium products. It also supports the government’s goal of expanding value-added manufacturing rather than relying only on imported finished goods.

Chinese Aluminium Producers Seek Global Market Access

Henan Zhongfu already exports aluminium products to more than 45 countries. The Egyptian project could help the company move closer to customers and diversify production outside China.

This matters because aluminium trade is increasingly shaped by tariffs, logistics costs, regional content rules and industrial policy. Overseas processing bases can help Chinese producers reduce market-access risk while supporting global customer supply.

The project also reflects a wider trend among Chinese metals companies. Producers are moving from export-only models toward international manufacturing platforms, especially in regions with logistics advantages and policy support.

No detailed capacity figures or construction timeline have been disclosed. However, the scale of the proposed investment suggests that the facility could become a significant downstream aluminium platform if approvals, financing and execution proceed smoothly.

For aluminium markets, the project’s main significance lies in downstream capacity rather than primary supply. It could strengthen competition in rolled and fabricated aluminium products across packaging, automotive and construction sectors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Henan Zhongfu project shows how aluminium competitiveness is shifting toward regional manufacturing platforms. Egypt’s location gives the project strategic value, while China’s downstream know-how could help build a larger aluminium products hub around the Suez Canal.

Bosai Indonesia Aluminium Smelting Project Signals China’s Next Overseas Capacity Push

Bosai

Bosai Indonesia aluminium smelting project shows how Chinese producers are extending primary metal capacity beyond domestic limits. The company signed an agreement to prepare industrial land in East Java. Initial committed investment totals $1.5bn, although planned capacity remains undisclosed. As a result, the market sees strategy first and production detail later.

The project matters because China’s aluminium industry is moving outward with greater urgency. Beijing’s 45mn t/yr ceiling limits domestic primary aluminium growth. Therefore, Chinese aluminium overseas expansion has become a structural response, not a short-term option. Indonesia remains one of the clearest destinations for that strategy.

East Java Aluminium Project Prioritises Infrastructure Over Raw Material Proximity

East Java aluminium project development appears to favour operating stability over raw material location. The province lacks major bauxite resources, which could raise feedstock logistics costs. However, it offers stronger infrastructure than many mining-centered regions. Stable power, port access, and road links can support long-term smelter performance.

That trade-off is increasingly common in aluminium investment decisions. Smelters depend heavily on electricity reliability and transport efficiency. Therefore, infrastructure quality can outweigh direct proximity to ore in some project models. Bosai seems to be betting that East Java can deliver that advantage.

The project also fits a wider pattern across Indonesia’s aluminium sector. Nanshan is expanding capacity at Bintan Industrial Park. Meanwhile, Hua Chin Aluminum Indonesia commissioned a 500,000 t/yr smelter in 2025. Consequently, Indonesia aluminium smelting is becoming a more important outlet for Chinese capital.

Chinese Aluminium Overseas Expansion Is Building a New Regional Supply Map

Chinese aluminium overseas expansion is reshaping where new capacity gets built. Bosai’s move suggests another step in that regional realignment. Instead of waiting for domestic room, producers are securing offshore industrial platforms. As a result, Southeast Asia is gaining more weight in the aluminium supply chain.

Bosai Indonesia aluminium smelting project may also carry broader industrial effects beyond metal tonnage. Local officials said the development could create more than 7,000 jobs. They also linked it to growth in the regional circular economy. That language suggests policymakers want downstream industrial clustering, not only one standalone plant.

For the aluminium market, the main question is execution quality. Capacity announcements alone do not guarantee competitive output. Power cost, alumina sourcing, logistics discipline, and commissioning speed will determine project value. Therefore, Bosai Indonesia aluminium smelting project deserves attention even before final scale is revealed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Bosai’s move shows that aluminium competition now depends on geography as much as scale. The real winners will be producers that pair capital with stable infrastructure and efficient supply routes. If Indonesia keeps attracting these projects, it could become a much stronger node in Asia’s aluminium map.

Yunnan Germanium Recycling Project Targets Feedstock Security for Strategic Metal Supply

Germanium Scrap

Yunnan Germanium recycling project plans will strengthen China’s largest germanium producer’s control over feedstock as demand from downstream high-end manufacturing remains strategically important. The company plans to invest 200.66mn yuan in a fully automated facility to process germanium-bearing waste slag.

The Yunnan Germanium recycling project will have capacity to process 150,000 t/yr of germanium-bearing waste slag. The company has not disclosed the construction timetable or launch date.

The Yunnan Germanium recycling project is designed to improve germanium resource utilisation and support raw material supply for downstream deep-processing products. This matters because germanium is a strategic minor metal used in defence, infrared optics, fibre optics, semiconductors and high-performance electronics.

The project also reflects a broader industry shift. Producers of critical and minor metals are increasingly trying to secure secondary feedstock as primary supply becomes more politically controlled and price volatility rises.

Recycling Capacity Reduces Dependence on External Raw Materials

Yunnan Germanium said partial reliance on externally sourced raw materials exposes it to germanium price volatility. Prices are influenced by global supply-demand conditions and demand from high-end manufacturing sectors.

The new recycling line should help reduce that exposure. By processing waste slag, the company can recover more germanium units from secondary material and support its downstream production chain.

This is strategically important because Yunnan Germanium already consumes significant germanium internally. In 2025, the company produced 29.7t of raw-material-grade germanium metal equivalent for external sales, excluding 68.95t used for internal consumption and third-party processing.

That internal use shows how the company is moving more material into higher-value products rather than selling all output into the merchant market. Recycling can strengthen that model by expanding available feedstock.

Yunnan Germanium also plans to diversify external suppliers of germanium-bearing waste slag. It will seek medium- to long-term supply agreements with quality provisions and emergency replenishment clauses.

The company also plans to build a raw material inventory reserve and a price-alert mechanism. It will adjust production and inventory strategies when germanium prices move by more than 10%.

These measures show a more disciplined approach to minor-metal procurement. In markets such as germanium, small disruptions can produce large price movements because supply is concentrated and liquidity is limited.

Export Controls Increase Strategic Value of Germanium Recovery

Germanium has become more strategically sensitive since China placed the metal under strict dual-use export controls in September 2023. China accounts for an estimated 60-70% of global germanium capacity.

This gives Chinese producers significant influence over global availability. It also makes domestic resource recovery more valuable, especially when export controls, defence demand and semiconductor-related applications increase policy attention.

Yunnan Germanium’s revenue rose to 1.07bn yuan in 2025 from 767mn yuan in 2024. Higher prices for key products, including raw-material-grade germanium, supported the increase despite lower external raw metal output.

The company’s recycling investment therefore supports both security and profitability. More stable feedstock access can improve operating flexibility when prices rise or external raw material supply tightens.

For downstream customers, the project may improve Yunnan Germanium’s ability to supply deeper-processed products. These include materials linked to optics, fibre communication, photovoltaics, infrared systems and compound semiconductors.

The broader market implication is clear. Germanium supply security will depend not only on mine output or primary production, but also on recycling, waste recovery, inventory control and long-term feedstock agreements.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Yunnan Germanium’s recycling plan shows that strategic minor metals are moving toward closed-loop resource control. In germanium, the advantage will belong to producers that can combine primary supply, secondary recovery and downstream processing under one feedstock strategy.

Aluminium Supply Shock Gives Metal a Firmer Floor Than Copper

Aluminium

Aluminium supply shock from the US/Israel-Iran war has given the metal a firmer price floor than copper, according to speakers at the FT Commodities Global Summit. The market is facing a direct physical shortage caused by smelter shutdowns, feedstock disruption and tighter value-added product flows.

Aluminium supply shock is already visible in European markets, where value-added product shipments have tightened sharply because of disrupted Middle East flows. Panellists described aluminium restrictions as the clearest metals impact of the conflict.

Aluminium supply shock differs from copper’s current tightness. Copper is being supported by policy positioning, strategic stockpiling, AI-related demand and long-term grid investment. Aluminium, by contrast, has already lost physical tonnes.

The market has reportedly lost 2mn-3mn t of aluminium production. That loss gives aluminium less downside risk than copper in a weaker macroeconomic environment because the shortage is physical, not only financial or policy-driven.

Missing Aluminium Tonnes Tighten Western Product Markets

Western smelters and semi-fabrication assets are seeing stronger demand for metal, especially higher-value products. But producers have little spare capacity left to respond.

Rio Tinto said all of its smelters producing value-added products are running flat out. This means western producers cannot quickly replace missing Middle East supply.

The shortage has already redirected Pacific metal toward Europe. It has also pushed Japanese aluminium premiums to historical highs, showing how regional trade flows are being reshaped by the supply shock.

Value-added aluminium products are especially exposed. These products serve packaging, automotive, aerospace, construction, electrical and industrial markets. When shipments tighten, downstream users feel the impact faster than in bulk commodity markets.

Aluminium’s downside is therefore limited by immediate supply loss. Even if demand weakens, missing smelter output and thin inventories can keep prices supported.

Copper’s bullish case remains powerful, but it is more indirect. It depends on electrification, data centres, policy stockpiling and supply-chain positioning. Aluminium’s case is simpler: the market needs metal that is not currently available.

China Cap and Western Capacity Limits Raise Policy Risk

The aluminium market cannot respond quickly to the disruption. China cannot easily replace the shortfall because of its 45mn t/yr production cap.

The cap has become a major structural feature of the global market. It has helped keep China’s aluminium industry profitable by preventing destructive overcapacity, but it also limits global supply flexibility during shocks.

The US and Europe also have limited restart options. High power costs, ageing assets and weak smelting economics mean there is little idle capacity that can return quickly and economically.

This makes aluminium increasingly policy-sensitive. Chinese and Indonesian producers still hold influence over future supply through capacity decisions, energy policy, exports and industrial planning.

Copper may remain the stronger long-term demand story because of grids, AI infrastructure and electrification. But aluminium has the more immediate supply problem.

For industrial buyers, the key issue is not only price. It is availability of qualified metal and value-added products. This is especially important for manufacturers that cannot easily switch suppliers or specifications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aluminium’s current strength comes from missing physical supply, not just bullish sentiment. Copper may win the long-term electrification story, but aluminium has the tighter near-term setup because replacement capacity is scarce and inventories are thin.

Hunan Gold Antimony Output Falls as Ore Supply Tightens in China

Hunan Gold

Hunan Gold antimony output fell sharply in 2025 as China’s domestic ore availability weakened and overseas feedstock flows shifted toward non-Chinese smelters. The major Chinese antimony producer reported 22,998t of antimony products during the year, down 21% from 29,209t in 2024.

The decline continues a multi-year downward trend. Hunan Gold antimony output was also below 31,005t in 2023, 30,715t in 2022 and 39,310t in 2021, showing how resource depletion and feedstock competition are weighing on Chinese production.

Hunan Gold antimony output matters because China remains central to global antimony supply, while antimony is increasingly important for flame retardants, military applications, lead alloys, batteries, cables and strategic industrial uses. Lower output from a major Chinese producer reinforces concerns over tightening availability.

Resource Depletion and Import Competition Reduce Feedstock Access

China’s domestic antimony resources have continued to decline after years of over-exploitation. This has limited ore availability for smelters and placed more pressure on producers that depend on both domestic mines and imported feedstock.

Import supply has also become more difficult. Key overseas ore suppliers have diverted more material to smelters outside China, where buyers are willing to pay higher prices to secure supply.

This shift reflects firmer global antimony prices after China imposed stricter dual-use item export controls. The policy tightened ex-China availability and encouraged foreign buyers to compete more aggressively for ore and intermediate supply.

The result is a structural squeeze for Chinese antimony producers. They face declining domestic resources, stronger competition for imported ore and a more fragmented international feedstock market.

Product Mix Shows Pressure Across Antimony Chain

Hunan Gold’s 2025 antimony production included 5,823t of antimony metal, 9,524t of antimony trioxide, 4,842t of sodium antimonate, 2,506t of ethylene glycol antimony and 303t of antimony oxide masterbatch.

Antimony trioxide remained the company’s largest antimony product by volume. It is widely used in flame retardant systems, making it important for plastics, electronics, textiles and industrial safety applications.

Antimony metal remains strategically important for alloying and defense-linked uses. Sodium antimonate and ethylene glycol antimony also support downstream chemical and industrial applications, linking ore supply constraints to multiple end markets.

Hunan Gold also produced 61t of gold in 2025, up 32% from a year earlier, while tungsten concentrate output fell by 10% to 908t. This shows that the company’s broader metals portfolio performed unevenly, with antimony facing the clearest supply-side pressure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hunan Gold’s lower output shows that China’s antimony position is being squeezed from both sides: depleted domestic resources and stronger overseas competition for ore. For global buyers, the key risk is that export controls and falling Chinese output reinforce each other, keeping antimony supply tight.

Haisheng to Build Advanced Tungsten Plant in Thailand Amid Growing Global Demand

Ganzhou Haisheng

Ganzhou Haisheng, a leading Chinese tungsten producer, has received local government approval to construct a state-of-the-art tungsten processing plant in Thailand. The facility, with a total investment of 180 million yuan ($25 million), underscores China's strategic move to expand its tungsten production capacity beyond domestic borders.

The planned plant boasts an impressive production lineup, including:

•  3,000 t/yr of ammonium paratungstate (APT)
•  2,000 t/yr of tungsten powder
•  1,200 t/yr of tungsten carbide
•  400 t/yr of tungsten bar
•  300 t/yr of cemented carbide

While the exact completion and production dates remain unconfirmed, the project represents a significant milestone for Haisheng, known for its comprehensive production lines in China spanning from ore processing to downstream products like powders, metals, and wires.

Strategic Expansion Amid Trade Tensions

This development comes as Chinese tungsten exporters face increasing challenges due to trade conflicts with the United States. Since the US imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese tungsten products in September, Chinese exports have declined. Data from January to August reveals a 12% year-on-year drop, with exports totaling 11,718 tons of tungsten metal equivalent.

In response, Chinese tungsten producers are exploring overseas projects to mitigate the impact of trade barriers and diversify their markets. Haisheng's Thailand facility could serve as a model for other producers aiming to navigate geopolitical uncertainties while meeting rising global demand for tungsten, a critical material in electronics, aerospace, and industrial tooling.

A Boon for Thailand’s Economy

Thailand stands to benefit economically and technologically from Haisheng's investment. The new plant could bolster the country's industrial capacity, create jobs, and attract further foreign direct investment in the metals sector.

Conclusion

Haisheng’s move to establish a tungsten plant in Thailand highlights a pivotal shift in the global tungsten supply chain. As geopolitical pressures reshape trade dynamics, Chinese producers like Haisheng are strategically positioning themselves to remain competitive in the evolving global metals market.

US New Tariffs Could Disrupt China's Non-Exempt Metals Exports

China Tariffs

New tariffs on lithium, rare earth magnets, and more could affect China's metal exports to the US.

The United States has announced significant new tariffs on Chinese imports, with a notable focus on metals. While many non-ferrous metals and ferro-alloys have been exempted, some crucial exports from China, like lithium, rare earth magnets, and lithium-ion batteries, will face substantial increases in tariff rates. These changes are set to have a lasting impact on the trade between the US and China, especially in the energy storage and electric vehicle (EV) sectors.

High Tariffs on Lithium-Ion Batteries and Energy Storage

As of April 9, the US will implement an 82.4% tariff on electric vehicle (EV) power batteries and a 57.4% tariff on non-EV lithium-ion batteries from China. This substantial hike in tariffs will make Chinese-made batteries far more expensive and may eliminate the possibility of Chinese EV power batteries entering the US market. US consumers will likely absorb these costs, potentially leading to inflation in the US battery industry, especially in the energy storage sector.

China’s lithium-ion battery exports to the US had already been on the rise, with a 59% increase in exports during the first two months of the year. However, these new tariffs are expected to curb the growth of China's battery exports to the US and negatively affect lithium feedstock prices, which are currently at a four-year low.

Impact on Rare Earth Magnets

Rare earth magnets are another key area of concern, as these products were not exempted from the new tariffs. Despite some uncertainty about the exact tariff implementation, producers in China are anxious about the potential 54% tariff on rare earth magnets. China remains the dominant supplier of rare earth magnets globally, and while the US does have some alternatives, they are mostly focused on military applications with significantly higher prices. This makes it unlikely that the US can fully escape its dependence on China, especially for civilian applications.

China’s exports of rare earth magnets to the US in 2022 accounted for 12% of its total exports, and while tariffs could reduce this figure, China’s competitive pricing in the civil sector ensures its continued dominance in the global market.

Copper, Aluminium, and Hafnium: Other Affected Metals

While copper and aluminium are exempt from this latest round of tariffs, the copper industry remains on edge. US authorities are investigating the potential security implications of copper imports, and there’s speculation that a tariff may be imposed in the future. As for aluminium, Chinese exports are already subject to a steep 70% tariff, which is expected to discourage further aluminium exports to the US, pushing Chinese suppliers to seek alternative markets.

Hafnium, a critical metal used in aerospace applications, will also face a significant tariff hike, moving from 34% to 79%. This change could prompt US buyers to source hafnium from other regions, like Rotterdam, where the tariff is considerably lower.

Conclusion

The new US tariffs on Chinese metals exports are set to reshape the global metals market, particularly for lithium-ion batteries, rare earth magnets, and hafnium. While some sectors, like copper and aluminium, may have avoided immediate tariff hikes, long-term implications for the industry remain uncertain. The tariff increase on key metal exports from China to the US is expected to alter supply chains and increase costs for US consumers, especially in the EV and energy storage markets.

Europe Rare Earth Prices Hold Steady as China’s NdPr Market Softens

Rare Earth mining

Europe rare earth prices held broadly steady this week as tight heavy rare earth availability offset weakness in China’s neodymium and praseodymium market. Delivered European prices for light rare earths showed little movement, while prompt supply of restricted heavy rare earths remained extremely limited.

Europe rare earth prices are now being shaped by two different market structures. Light rare earths are tracking weaker Chinese sentiment more closely, but European demand remains modest and supply is sufficient. Heavy rare earths are trading under export-control pressure, with buyers outside China paying steep premiums for prompt material.

Europe rare earth prices therefore show a widening split between ordinary demand softness and strategic scarcity. The market is not moving as one rare earth complex. It is separating by licensing access, material origin, availability and end-use urgency.

Light Rare Earths Stay Flat Despite Chinese Market Drop

European delivered neodymium oxide prices remained steady at $115-130/kg cif Europe. Neodymium metal also held at $145-160/kg cif.

Praseodymium oxide stayed unchanged at $115-130/kg cif Europe, while praseodymium-neodymium oxide held at $110-115/kg cif. The stability came despite a sharp decline in China’s NdPr complex.

Chinese traders have been destocking ahead of the 1-5 May Labour Day holiday, expecting weaker domestic end-user demand. Several oxide producers suspended spot offers to assess market direction.

European prices did not follow the Chinese decline because regional spot demand remains limited. Delivered European prices are already below Chinese values on average, supported by sufficient supply from multiple sources.

Cerium oxide moved slightly higher, with the top end of the range rising to $2.55/kg cif Europe. Demand is being supported by increased use of cerium-based rare earth magnets and higher freight costs for material circulating outside China.

This light rare earth stability suggests that Europe is not facing immediate NdPr scarcity. However, buyers remain cautious because Chinese price movements still influence sentiment and replacement-cost expectations.

Heavy Rare Earths Remain Tight Under Export Controls

Heavy rare earth availability remains the main pressure point in Europe. Delivered prices for dysprosium oxide were unchanged at $1,000-1,200/kg cif Europe, while terbium oxide held at $3,800-4,500/kg cif.

Spot liquidity has been thin since the start of the year. Prompt availability outside China remains very tight, especially for buyers without export licences.

China’s export controls continue to reshape heavy rare earth pricing. End-users that cannot access licensed Chinese supply are still willing to pay steep premiums to secure material for magnets, defence systems, electronics and advanced manufacturing.

Japanese buying interest has added more pressure since Japan became subject to stricter export controls in January. This has increased competition for limited non-China prompt supply.

The same pattern is visible in gadolinium and yttrium. Gadolinium oxide remained at $700-1,200/kg cif Europe, while yttrium oxide held at $800-1,200/kg cif Europe.

These markets are no longer priced only by Chinese domestic fundamentals. They are being priced by export-control access, available inventories and the cost of avoiding production disruption.

For European buyers, the practical issue is security of supply. Even if Chinese domestic prices soften, restricted material outside China can remain expensive because availability is controlled by licensing and logistics.

The result is a rare earth market where light rare earths may soften with Chinese demand, while heavy rare earths retain a strategic premium. That premium is likely to persist as long as export controls limit access to dysprosium, terbium, gadolinium and yttrium.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s rare earth market is becoming increasingly divided between price-led light rare earths and security-led heavy rare earths. China’s NdPr weakness matters, but export-control pressure on dysprosium, terbium, gadolinium and yttrium is now the stronger strategic signal.

PCC BakkiSilicon sales fall as market slump forces July shutdown

PCC Bakki Silicon

PCC BakkiSilicon sales fall sharply on weak prices and a July production halt. The PCC BakkiSilicon sales fall reflects collapsing European silicon margins amid cheaper Chinese metal. As a result, PCC BakkiSilicon sales fall becomes a test case for EU trade defenses.

Output cuts and shutdown follow collapsing economics

PCC operated at half capacity during the second quarter as prices deteriorated. Therefore, the firm fully suspended production on 20 July to stem losses. Sales fell to €14.8mn in 2Q from €22.8mn a year earlier. Meanwhile, first-half sales dropped 38pc to €27.3mn. The segment’s ebitda loss widened to €9.3mn from €6.6mn.

Policy push centers on EU safeguards and Iceland tariffs

PCC urges EU safeguards on silicon metal to protect local producers. The company also seeks a review of Iceland’s import tariffs. It alleges unfair trade practices by Chinese silicon suppliers. Consequently, management frames policy action as critical to avoid Europe-wide plant closures.

PCC BakkiSilicon sales fall underscores Europe’s silicon supply risk. Moreover, sustained Chinese price pressure threatens regional self-sufficiency. Producers may need relief until demand normalizes and spreads recover.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s silicon chain is flashing red on price arbitrage and power costs. Unless safeguards and tariff clarity land quickly, deindustrialization risk rises. Watch contract resets into 2026 and any curtailments beyond Iceland for guidance on bottom formation.

Copper Aluminium Pricing Divergence Deepens as Middle East Shock Turns Metal-Specific

Sucden Financial

Copper aluminium pricing divergence is becoming clearer as base metal markets absorb the first shock of the Middle East conflict. Copper is shifting back toward physical flows, inventories and policy risk, while aluminium remains supported by direct disruption to Middle East supply chains.

Copper aluminium pricing divergence reflects a broader change in market behaviour. Traders are moving away from headline-led volatility and focusing more on spreads, premiums, inventories and real supply constraints.

Copper aluminium pricing divergence also shows that the base metals complex is no longer trading as one geopolitical basket. Each metal is now being priced according to its own exposure to the war, its physical balance and its ability to replace disrupted supply.

UK broker Sucden Financial said the conflict initially drove broad volatility across commodities. But that phase is fading, leaving copper and aluminium on different pricing paths.

Copper Moves From Macro Risk to Physical and Policy Pricing

Copper began the year as a macro-driven metal. Prices moved with broader risk sentiment, oil, gold and cross-asset positioning.

That relationship is now weakening. Copper is increasingly being priced through its own market signals, including Shanghai inventory drawdowns, US flow incentives, mined supply quality and sulphuric acid-related supply-chain disruption.

This shift matters because copper is no longer responding only to global growth fears or geopolitical headlines. It is being priced through physical availability and policy exposure.

The Comex premium has periodically reopened the arbitrage for copper units to move into the US. This has made the interaction between LME, Comex, inventories and US policy more important to price discovery.

Sucden said the next phase of copper pricing could be shaped by material-security concerns. These include tariff threats, incentives to hold more metal in the US and the strategic value of copper in energy infrastructure.

This is a macro-to-micro rotation. Copper is moving away from broad geopolitical trading and toward a market driven by premiums, spreads, stock locations and supply-chain constraints.

Sulphuric acid remains a key hidden risk. Copper supply from leaching operations, particularly in regions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile, can be affected if acid availability tightens or costs rise.

The market still remains exposed to recession fears. A deeper economic slowdown caused by the conflict could weigh on copper demand and financial positioning.

However, copper’s resilience suggests that traders are giving greater weight to structural tightness. Supply challenges, low-quality mined material and long-term demand from grids, electrification and industrial policy continue to support the metal.

Sucden argued that copper’s long-term direction remains higher and that price dips should be bought. The structural case has not changed, while eventual dollar weakness after a conflict resolution could provide further support.

Aluminium Holds a Firmer Physical Floor After Supply Shock

Aluminium has already repriced much of the Middle East disruption. The metal briefly moved toward the upper end of its recent range as the conflict escalated, but repeated failures above $3,650/t suggest the market needs further supply deterioration to justify another major move higher.

This does not mean aluminium is weak. It means the initial panic premium has already been absorbed.

Aluminium’s support is more physical than copper’s. The disruption affects smelting, feedstock flows and export availability from the Middle East, making the supply shock more direct than headline numbers may suggest.

Sucden said aluminium remains the base metal with the clearest exposure to the Middle East war. Ex-China supply is tighter, London Metal Exchange inventories are falling and nearby spreads have moved into backwardation.

Chinese inventories have risen, but that does not fully offset the tightness outside China. Regional availability matters more when logistics, origin and delivery routes are disrupted.

Aluminium smelters also cannot restart quickly. Once production is curtailed, bringing capacity back requires time, stable power and commercial confidence.

Elevated energy prices add another layer of cost support. Even if the war de-escalates, smelters and downstream producers may still face a higher operating cost base.

Sucden said de-escalation could initially push aluminium prices toward $3,400/t. But any decline may prove short-lived if physical tightness remains.

This gives aluminium limited immediate upside but also limited downside. The market has already priced much of the shock, yet replacement supply is not easy to find.

The broader implication is that aluminium is trading a tighter physical balance, not only a war premium. That makes its price floor firmer than a market driven purely by sentiment.

For industrial buyers, the copper-aluminium split is important. Copper procurement risk is increasingly tied to policy, US flows and strategic inventory. Aluminium risk is tied more directly to missing tonnes, energy costs and disrupted regional supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Middle East conflict is exposing the real structure of each base metal market. Copper is becoming a policy-and-premium metal, while aluminium is being supported by a more immediate physical supply shock.

China's Antimony Market Faces Weak Demand but Tight Supply in 2025

China antimony

Antimony Prices to Remain High Amid Supply Constraints

China's antimony market is bracing for a dual challenge in 2025: a decline in demand driven by export restrictions, substitution efforts, and slowing solar glass industry growth, coupled with persistent supply tightness due to global resource depletion. These dynamics suggest that while demand-side pressures may lead to short-term price fluctuations, antimony prices are unlikely to drop significantly from their recent record highs.

Export Controls Limit Overseas Sales

Since late August 2024, antimony prices in China’s domestic market have softened slightly, falling from approximately Yn164,000/t to Yn140,000-142,000/t ex-works for 99.65% grade antimony metal. This decline follows export restrictions that have curbed overseas demand, forcing more material into the domestic market.

Market observers remain cautious about additional trade barriers, as critical minerals like antimony are increasingly entangled in geopolitical tensions. In 2021-2022, China produced 20,000t of antimony metal and exported 2,700t, while antimony trioxide production reached 29,600t, with 12,400t exported.

Substitution Pressures Threaten Antimony Demand

Antimony's dominant role in flame-retardant applications has long been challenged by substitute materials such as tin dioxide, cerium dioxide, magnesium hydroxide, and certain rare earth compounds. The World Health Organization (WHO) classifies antimony trioxide as a probable carcinogen, prompting some European countries to restrict its use in consumer products like toys, electronics, and cosmetics.

With antimony prices still elevated—hovering well above Yn90,000/t, the level many buyers in the flame-retardant industry consider viable—substitution pressures are expected to rise. However, complete replacement is unlikely, as antimony-bromine flame retardants remain unique in preserving plastic structure, unlike most alternatives. Plastic manufacturers are likely to continue using antimony-bromine compounds as long as bromine prices remain low.

Solar Glass Industry Slowdown May Curb Demand

The solar glass sector, a key growth driver of antimony demand, has been a major consumer of sodium pyroantimonate, a refining agent. Consumption surged from 22,000t in 2022 to 30,000t in 2023, but demand has slowed since July 2024 due to overcapacity concerns.

In November 2024, the Chinese government tightened photovoltaic manufacturing regulations, shifting the focus from rapid expansion to technological innovation and quality improvements. This policy change is expected to curb antimony demand from the photovoltaic (PV) industry in 2025.

Tight Concentrate Supply to Prevent Major Price Declines

Despite weakened demand, China's antimony prices are unlikely to return to 2022-2023 levels due to ongoing supply constraints. Since November 2024, Chinese antimony metal producers have been reluctant to cut prices, citing concentrate shortages as their primary concern.

To compensate for declining domestic reserves, China increased antimony concentrate imports by 44% year-on-year, reaching 45,136t from January to October 2024, according to customs data. However, low metal content (20-30%) in these imports has limited their effectiveness.

China’s annual metal content production of antimony fell from 6,000-8,500t pre-2020 to 3,500-4,100t in 2021-2023, reflecting severe resource depletion. 2024 production is estimated at 4,500t, with no significant rebound expected in 2025.

Conclusion

China's antimony market is caught between declining demand and supply shortages. While export restrictions, substitution risks, and a slowdown in solar glass production threaten consumption, resource depletion and low-grade imports will keep supplies constrained. As a result, antimony prices are expected to remain elevated despite short-term volatility.

USAR acquires Less Common Metals to accelerate mine-to-magnet strategy

USA Rare Earth

USAR acquires Less Common Metals in a $125mn deal that reshapes non-Chinese rare earth supply chains. The USAR acquires Less Common Metals transaction combines upstream resources, metal production and magnet alloys into one integrated platform. As a result, USAR acquires Less Common Metals to strengthen Western access to critical rare earth magnet materials.

USAR acquires Less Common Metals to secure rare earth metals and alloys

USAR acquires Less Common Metals through a mix of $100mn cash and 6.74mn USAR shares. The acquisition brings LCM’s Cheshire plant, which produces light and heavy rare earth metals and strip cast magnet alloys. LCM supplies samarium, samarium–cobalt, neodymium praseodymium, terbium, yttrium and gadolinium for permanent magnet applications. This portfolio anchors USAR’s move into high-value magnet metals rather than only rare earth oxides. LCM is the only large-scale producer of such metals and alloys outside China, making its assets strategically important. Therefore the deal immediately boosts Western capacity along the magnet value chain. USAR plans to expand LCM’s UK production footprint to meet rising demand from defense, automotive and industrial customers.

Building an integrated mine-to-magnet platform in the US and UK

USAR will integrate LCM’s know-how into its Stillwater, Oklahoma, facility to support a planned 5,000 t/yr magnet plant. This integration creates a tighter loop from rare earth metal production into finished magnet manufacturing. At the same time, USAR’s Round Top rare earth deposit in Texas will underpin long-term feed for metals and alloys. The company also highlights its ability to process recycled rare earth oxides, adding a circular element to the supply chain. Together, these assets form a closed-loop mine-to-magnet model spanning mining, metals, alloys and recycling. LCM’s established customer relationships across US and European magnet makers, as well as defense and automotive supply chains, provide immediate market access. As a result, the combined group can offer Western buyers secure, non-Chinese supply options for critical rare earth magnet materials.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This acquisition underscores how quickly mine-to-magnet integration is becoming a strategic priority in the rare earth sector. If USAR executes on its expansion plans, it will sit at the center of a transatlantic magnet supply chain that reduces reliance on Chinese metal and alloy producers. For policymakers and OEMs, the deal offers a concrete example of how capital, geology and processing know-how must align to de-risk critical materials.

Refined Zinc Deficit Forecast Signals Tight Balance Despite Mine Supply Growth

ILZSG

Refined zinc deficit conditions are expected in 2026 as global demand slightly outpaces refined metal supply, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. The group forecasts a refined zinc deficit of 19,000t this year.

The refined zinc deficit reflects a market where demand growth remains modest but supply growth is also limited. Global refined zinc demand is expected to rise by 1.3% to 14mn t, while refined zinc output is forecast to increase by 1.4% to 13.99mn t.

The refined zinc deficit is not large, but it highlights a fragile balance in a metal tied closely to galvanised steel, infrastructure, automotive production, construction and industrial manufacturing. Even small shifts in mine output, smelter operations or steel demand could move the market back into surplus or deeper deficit.

China, Europe and India Support Zinc Demand

China remains the world’s largest zinc consumer and will continue to anchor demand growth. ILZSG expects Chinese refined zinc demand to rise by 1.8% in 2026, following 1.9% growth in 2025.

European demand is forecast to rise by 1.1% this year, slowing from 3.5% growth last year. US demand growth is also expected to moderate to 1.4%, after expanding by 7% in 2025.

India and South Korea are expected to post higher refined zinc demand. Their growth reflects continued industrial activity, infrastructure needs and manufacturing consumption.

The Middle East outlook is weaker. Iran’s zinc usage is expected to decline sharply because of major infrastructure damage, especially in the steel sector, caused by the war. Demand in Saudi Arabia and the UAE is also expected to fall because of refined metal import disruption and economic instability.

This regional split matters for zinc producers and traders. Growth in Asia may support consumption, but slower demand in Europe and the US, combined with disruption in the Middle East, limits the strength of the global demand recovery.

Mine Supply Rises Slowly as Smelters Face Concentrate and Energy Constraints

Global zinc mine production is forecast to rise by only 0.3% to 12.55mn t in 2026. This follows a stronger 2025, when mine production rose by 4.8%, or 5.9% excluding China.

This year’s mine growth will be supported by higher output in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Portugal and China. New capacity in China, including the Huoshaoyun mine, is expected to contribute to supply.

However, declines in Peru, Sweden and the US will partly offset these gains. Lower output is expected at Antamina, Garpenberg and Red Dog, three important zinc-producing operations.

Refined zinc output is expected to rise by 1.4% to 13.99mn t. Chinese refined production is forecast to grow by 3% as new capacity starts up, following a 6.7% increase last year.

European refined output is also expected to rise, supported by Boliden’s Odda smelter expansion in Norway and the planned restart of Russia’s Verkhny Ufaley smelter. However, higher energy costs and limited concentrate availability continue to pressure several European producers.

Outside Europe and China, refined zinc production is expected to increase in South Korea but decline in Iran and Canada. This shows that refined zinc supply remains exposed to regional energy costs, concentrate access and operational disruption.

The lead market presents a different picture. ILZSG expects refined lead supply to exceed demand by 109,000t in 2026, with output rising by 1.3% to 13.83mn t and demand increasing by 1.1% to 13.72mn t.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The refined zinc deficit forecast points to a market that is balanced on a narrow edge, not structurally short. Zinc’s outlook will depend on whether Chinese smelter growth and new mine capacity can offset weaker regional demand and concentrate constraints.