Chinese PV Industry Faces Overcapacity and Profit Losses: IEA Reports

Iea(The International Energy Agency)

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a concerning report highlighting the overcapacity and declining profitability in China’s photovoltaic (PV) industry, which is the dominant force in the global solar energy supply chain. The report, presented during a webinar this Thursday, sheds light on the financial struggles faced by major Chinese manufacturers such as JA Solar Technology and LONGi Green Energy Technology, which have reported significant losses in their recent financial statements.

According to Izumi Kaizuka, an analyst at the IEA, the mood at the 17th SNEC PV conference in Shanghai this June was grim. Kaizuka quoted the founder of GCL Group, a major PV manufacturer, who expressed concern that the Chinese PV industry is "entering an ice age" due to a severe imbalance in supply and demand. The report also highlighted the bankruptcy of Zhejiang Akcome, one of China’s leading PV manufacturers, earlier this year, with the IEA predicting more closures in the near future.

China's Dominance in Global PV Production

Despite the struggles at home, China continues to dominate the global PV industry. In 2023, China accounted for more than half of the 456GW of global solar power capacity added, and nine of the top 10 PV suppliers in the first half of 2024 were Chinese-owned. The country has increased its production share across all segments of the PV supply chain, including polysilicon, crystalline silicon wafers, solar cells, and PV modules, with its share reaching 92%, 98%, 92%, and 85%, respectively, in 2023.

The rapid expansion of China’s PV capacity is evident, with the country increasing its own year-on-year solar additions by 123% from 2022 to 2023, followed by Italy (113%) and Germany (109%). However, the global demand for PV capacity is pushing countries like the EU and the US to expand their own solar production capabilities, with the EU installing over 56GW in 2023 alone.

The EU's Push for Solar Manufacturing

In response to its growing reliance on Chinese imports, the European Union (EU) has set ambitious targets to scale up domestic production of PV panels. Under the Net-Zero Industry Act, the EU aims to produce at least 40% of its annual needs for strategic net-zero technologies—including solar panels—by 2030. With current production at under 5GW annually, the EU is planning to ramp up its manufacturing capacity to 30GW per year by 2030 in order to meet its renewable energy goals.

As the global PV market faces challenges like overcapacity and supply-demand imbalances, the role of China in driving production and the EU’s efforts to boost its domestic capabilities will shape the future of the solar industry.

China export VAT rebate cuts reshape solar PV and battery exports

China Solar

China export VAT rebate cuts will raise the effective cost of exporting solar PV and batteries. China export VAT rebate cuts start on 1 April and tighten again in 2027. As a result, exporters face a faster push toward pricing discipline and higher-value products.

China will withdraw the export VAT rebate for solar photovoltaic products from 1 April. China supplies most global solar PV exports, so buyers will feel the shift quickly. Therefore, the policy targets over-expansion and the harsh price war across the sector.

Solar PV exporters face an immediate margin reset

Solar PV exporters will lose a rebate tailwind overnight. Producers will either accept lower margins or lift export prices where contracts allow. Meanwhile, weaker players may accelerate shutdowns, mergers, or capacity delays.

The change also encourages differentiation in higher-efficiency cells and modules. Companies will likely prioritize premium segments and branded channels. However, low-end volume exports will become harder to justify.

Battery exports move into a two-step phaseout

Battery export VAT rebates will fall to 6pc from 9pc between 1 April and 31 December 2026. The rebate will disappear from 1 January 2027. As a result, battery makers may adjust product mix, contract terms, and overseas inventory strategy.

China dominates battery materials and power battery supply, so the policy touches global EV and storage chains. Beijing also widened its export licensing scope to include BEVs from 1 January. Meanwhile, regulators are signaling stricter rules to standardize competition across batteries.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This policy looks like an industrial reset, not a trade accident. It pressures excess capacity and forces a quality-led export model. However, the biggest impact will land on low-margin suppliers first.

Bismuth Tellurium PV Demand Growth Driven by Solar Technology Expansion

Bismuth

Bismuth tellurium PV demand faces divergent growth trajectories as photovoltaic industry expansion supports bismuth consumption while trade conflicts constrain tellurium market development. The bismuth tellurium PV sector dynamics were highlighted at the 2025 China bismuth and tellurium development forum in Chenzhou, where industry experts analyzed critical materials supply chains for emerging solar technologies.

Bismuth Consumption Accelerates Through HJT Solar Battery Growth

Bismuth tellurium PV applications demonstrate strong growth potential, particularly in heterojunction (HJT) solar battery manufacturing. Global bismuth consumption reached 18,000-19,000 tonnes in 2024, with China representing approximately 40% at 6,600-6,800 tonnes according to Vital Technology Group. The HJT battery technology combines crystalline silicon advantages with thin film capabilities, requiring bismuth-based low-temperature welding materials.

Meanwhile, global HJT cell shipments surged from 4 GW in 2022 to 25 GW in 2024. Demand for low-temperature welding materials increased correspondingly from 2,000 tonnes in 2022 to 10,000 tonnes in 2024. Industry projections indicate HJT shipments will reach 80 GW in 2025, requiring 30,000 tonnes of specialized welding materials containing bismuth.

Tellurium Market Faces Trade-Related Headwinds

However, tellurium consumption encounters challenges despite growing photovoltaic industry demand. China dominates global tellurium production with 803 tonnes in 2024, representing 68% of worldwide output totaling 1,179 tonnes. The metal finds primary application in cadmium-telluride (Cd-Te) thin-film solar modules, consuming approximately 130 tonnes per gigawatt of production capacity.

Therefore, trade tensions between China and the US create uncertainty for tellurium demand growth. Major US manufacturer First Solar reduced sales guidance from 18-20 GW to 15.5-19.3 GW in April, citing trade uncertainty and higher tariffs imposed since President Trump's February inauguration. This guidance reduction directly impacts global Cd-Te consumption projections for 2025.

Building-Integrated PV Creates New Demand Channels

Furthermore, building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) applications present emerging growth opportunities for both critical minerals. China plans significant BIPV capacity expansion, potentially increasing tellurium utilization according to China Triumph representatives. Global Cd-Te thin-film solar cell output reached 16 GW in 2024, indicating 2,080 tonnes of Cd-Te demand for absorption layer applications.

As a result, bismuth benefits from diversified application portfolios including automobile glass ink (19% of consumption), pigments (13%), catalysts (8%), and pharmaceuticals (8%). This diversification provides stability compared to tellurium's concentrated dependence on solar module manufacturing, which remains vulnerable to geopolitical trade disruptions affecting major consuming markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The contrasting trajectories of bismuth and tellurium in photovoltaic applications highlight how trade policies increasingly influence critical minerals demand patterns beyond traditional supply-side considerations. While technological advancement drives fundamental growth in both materials, tellurium's concentrated exposure to US-China trade tensions demonstrates the vulnerability of specialized critical minerals to geopolitical disruptions in key end-use sectors.

Yunnan Germanium Output Falls as Downstream Wafer Demand Absorbs Metal

Germanium

Yunnan Germanium output of raw material-grade germanium available for external sales fell in 2025 as the company redirected more metal into internal downstream production. The shift reflects stronger demand from photovoltaic wafers, optical fibre materials and compound semiconductor products.

Yunnan Germanium output for external raw material-grade germanium sales fell by 13% to 29.7t metal equivalent. The figure excludes 68.95t used for internal consumption and third-party processing.

Yunnan Germanium output therefore signals a change in material allocation rather than simple production weakness. More germanium units are being retained inside the company’s higher-value product chain instead of being sold as raw material.

Revenue rose by 38% to 1.07bn yuan, supported by higher prices for raw germanium, optical fibre materials, PV germanium products, infrared products and semiconductor products.

PV and Optical Fibre Demand Pull Germanium Into Internal Processing

Yunnan Germanium nearly doubled production of 4-6 inch PV-grade germanium wafers in 2025. Output rose to 909,000 pieces from 491,400 pieces a year earlier.

This growth is strategically important because germanium wafers serve high-efficiency photovoltaic applications. Stronger wafer output means more raw germanium is being converted into higher-value products rather than sold into the merchant market.

Optical fibre materials also expanded. Output of optical fibre-grade germanium tetrachloride rose to 39.8t from 27t, showing stronger demand from communications infrastructure and optical transmission markets.

Infrared-grade germanium raw material output fell by 28% to 4.77t metal equivalent. However, production of infrared lenses and optical systems rose sharply to 4,717 sets from 1,828 sets.

That mix shows deeper downstream processing. The company reduced some raw infrared material output but increased finished optical systems, capturing more value further along the chain.

For germanium buyers, the key issue is external availability. When China’s largest germanium producer consumes more material internally, less raw metal is available for third-party customers.

Indium Phosphide Expansion Strengthens Compound Semiconductor Push

Yunnan Germanium also increased indium phosphide wafer output in 2025. Production of 2-4 inch InP wafers rose by 55% to 100,100 pieces.

In contrast, gallium arsenide wafer production declined by 13% to 76,300 pieces. This shows a shift in compound semiconductor emphasis toward InP, where demand is rising from advanced optical and semiconductor applications.

The company plans to keep increasing PV-grade germanium wafer and indium phosphide wafer output in 2026. It also plans to reduce infrared product output.

Yunnan Germanium targets 73t metal equivalent of raw material-grade germanium products in 2026, including internal use and third-party processing. It also plans to produce 1.45mn pieces of 4-6 inch equivalent PV-grade wafers and 180,000 pieces of 2-6 inch InP wafers.

The company also plans to produce 35t of optical fibre-grade germanium tetrachloride, 80,000 pieces of 3-6 inch GaAs wafers, 3t of infrared-grade germanium raw materials and 8,000 sets of infrared lenses and optical systems.

The planned 188.56mn yuan investment to expand high-quality InP single-crystal wafer capacity reinforces this strategy. Yunnan Germanium is moving from raw germanium supply toward integrated semiconductor and photonics material production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Yunnan Germanium’s lower external metal output should not be read as weak demand. It shows that strategic germanium producers are capturing more value internally, tightening merchant supply while expanding into PV, optical fibre and InP wafer markets.

Yunnan Germanium Increases Production Amid Rising Demand in First Half of 2024

Yunnan Germanium

China's largest germanium producer, Yunnan Germanium, reported a significant rise in production during the first half of 2024. The company attributed this growth to increasing demand from the photovoltaic (PV) and semiconductor sectors, which rely heavily on germanium for critical applications.

Strong Growth in PV and Semiconductor Output

Between January and June, Yunnan Germanium produced 218,300 pieces of PV-grade germanium wafers, a 52% increase from the 143,900 pieces produced during the same period last year. While PV-grade output surged, the company saw a 6% drop in infrared-grade germanium products, which totaled 2.35 tonnes. Production of germanium tetrachloride, used in optical fiber materials, also decreased by 36% to 9.84 tonnes.

The company also experienced growth in other semiconductor products. Its gallium arsenide (GaAs) wafer production jumped 64% to 47,900 pieces, while output of indium phosphide more than doubled, reaching 33,900 pieces, up from 15,300 pieces a year earlier.

Increased Revenue Despite Mixed Results

Despite some declines in specific product lines, Yunnan Germanium's overall revenue grew by 23%, reaching 348 million yuan ($49 million) in the first half of 2024. This was largely due to the increased sales of raw-material-grade germanium, PV-grade germanium products, and semiconductor-related products.

Germanium is a by-product of zinc and lead production. However, many mines have reduced zinc and lead concentrate production due to rising treatment charges, which may impact future germanium supply.

China’s Polysilicon Output Declines as Producers Seek Market Balance

Daqo New Energy

China's polysilicon production experienced significant cuts in recent months, as leading producers adjusted output to counter oversupply and stabilize the market. According to Daqo New Energy, a leading polysilicon manufacturer, output fell 15% month-on-month in July and 6% in August, marking the lowest production levels of the year. Total production dropped below 130,000 tons in August, easing market pressure and temporarily stabilizing prices.

Market Pressures Prompt Production Adjustments

The oversupply had driven polysilicon prices to a low of 35-40 yuan/kg, below cash costs for Tier 1 producers. However, by September, prices rebounded slightly to 38-43 yuan/kg as downstream buyers took advantage of the lower prices. The sector remains under strain, with four consecutive months of cash losses pushing producers to revise strategies.

In response, Daqo implemented a series of measures:

• Facility Maintenance and Utilization Adjustments: Daqo reduced capacity utilization to 50% in Q3 and produced 43,592 tons, down from 64,961 tons in Q2.
• Production Guidance Downgrade: Full-year guidance was revised to 200,000-210,000 tons, down from an earlier forecast of 280,000-300,000 tons.

CEO Xu Xiang highlighted the ongoing need for further production cuts and stronger downstream demand to sustain price recovery.

Solar Demand and Government Stimulus Provide Hope

While the polysilicon market struggles, the broader solar photovoltaic (PV) sector shows robust demand. New solar PV installations in China reached 160.88 GW in the first nine months of the year, a 25% increase compared to 2023. The fourth quarter traditionally sees the highest number of installations, bolstered by government stimulus packages encouraging state-owned enterprises to invest in renewable energy projects.

The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) has set a reference price of 0.68 yuan/W for PV modules, aiming to stabilize bidding processes and provide pricing clarity.

Outlook: Consolidation and Recovery

Despite signs of stabilization, Xu noted that the market may have reached a cyclical bottom but has not yet shown a clear turning point. Poor profitability and cash burn are likely to drive higher-cost producers out of the market, paving the way for long-term capacity optimization and recovery.

Hoshine Silicon Metal Output Surges with Export Growth and Industrial Demand

Hoshine Silicon Metal

Record Production Reflects Strong Global and Domestic Market Support

Hoshine silicon metal output surged to 1.87 million tonnes in 2024, a 38% increase from the previous year. The Chinese producer also boosted sales by 21% to 1.23 million tonnes amid strong demand from the polysilicon and aluminium alloy sectors. Exports grew 29% to 725,000 tonnes, driven by renewed interest from global buyers, while domestic use climbed 22%, including a 25% rise in the polysilicon segment.

Silicon Market Strengthens as China’s PV Sector Expands

The broader Chinese silicon metal market also expanded, with national production reaching 4.72 million tonnes—up 28% year-on-year, according to CNIA data. Contributing to this growth was a 28% increase in installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity in the first half of 2024, reaching 277.57GW. This surge supported greater silicon demand, particularly in renewable energy and industrial alloy applications.

2025 Outlook: Efficiency Over Expansion

Despite 2024 growth, Hoshine warns of lower polysilicon run rates in 2025 due to surplus capacity and weak wafer demand. As a result, silicon metal demand may taper off. However, Hoshine plans to phase out outdated equipment and invest in energy efficiency upgrades. In 2024, its silicon metal production operated at 153% capacity utilization due to technology enhancements and recovery improvements. The firm also holds 1.73 million t/yr of organosilicon capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hoshine’s output expansion highlights China’s silicon dominance in both energy and industrial applications. Yet, rising inventories and softer wafer demand in 2025 may shift the focus from volume to operational efficiency. Strategic upgrades and export growth remain crucial for sustaining competitiveness.

First Solar Secures US TOPCon Patent

US-based solar module manufacturer First Solar has successfully obtained a US patent for its solar cell production technology, paving the way for an investigation into potential patent infringements.

The company announced today that it has acquired patents for the Tunner Oxide Passivated Contact (TOPCon) cells, which utilize crystalline-silicon (c-Si) photovoltaic (PV) technology, following its acquisition of TetraSun in 2013.

With this patent acquisition, First Solar has launched an investigation into c-Si solar manufacturers to identify any possible infringement of its patents, which are issued in the US, Mexico, China, Malaysia, Vietnam, Japan, and Australia. The probe also covers pending patent applications in the EU and Japan.

First Solar is known for producing thin-film cadmium-telluride (CdTe)-based photovoltaic modules, a crucial element in advancing solar energy technology and the broader energy transition.

US solar duties on imports: manufacturers target India, Indonesia and Laos

US solar companies

A new petition seeks US solar duties on imports from India, Indonesia and Laos to curb alleged dumping. A coalition of domestic manufacturers filed AD/CVD cases with Commerce and the ITC. They allege Chinese-backed and Indian firms sell below fair value with illegal subsidies. As a result, US solar duties on imports could expand again after last month’s Southeast Asia tariffs.

Who is behind the push

The Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade leads the petition. Members include First Solar, Mission Solar Energy and Qcells. Previously, the alliance won duties on Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. However, petitioners say producers shifted capacity to Laos and Indonesia. They argue US solar duties on imports must follow those shifts to protect jobs and investments.

The filing targets crystalline silicon PV cells and modules. Petitioners claim antidumping sales under “normal value.” They also cite countervailable subsidies that distort US prices. The first step is an inquiry by Commerce and the ITC. Regulators can then impose provisional tariffs pending final determinations.

How new tariffs could reshape supply chains

New tariffs would raise delivered costs for targeted panels and cells. Meanwhile, they could bolster US factory utilization and planned expansions. Developers may diversify procurement across non-targeted sources to manage risk. As a result, buyers face short-term price volatility and contracting delays.

Trade diversion remains a central concern for policymakers. Petitioners argue enforcement must track ownership and processing routes. Therefore, compliance programs and country-of-origin audits will matter more. Clear guidance on scope will be critical for bankable supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Trade policy is steering the solar supply chain as much as technology. If Commerce opens these cases, expect tighter margins and faster localization. Bankable EPCs will hedge with multi-country sourcing while awaiting preliminary duty rates.

China's Antimony Market Faces Weak Demand but Tight Supply in 2025

China antimony

Antimony Prices to Remain High Amid Supply Constraints

China's antimony market is bracing for a dual challenge in 2025: a decline in demand driven by export restrictions, substitution efforts, and slowing solar glass industry growth, coupled with persistent supply tightness due to global resource depletion. These dynamics suggest that while demand-side pressures may lead to short-term price fluctuations, antimony prices are unlikely to drop significantly from their recent record highs.

Export Controls Limit Overseas Sales

Since late August 2024, antimony prices in China’s domestic market have softened slightly, falling from approximately Yn164,000/t to Yn140,000-142,000/t ex-works for 99.65% grade antimony metal. This decline follows export restrictions that have curbed overseas demand, forcing more material into the domestic market.

Market observers remain cautious about additional trade barriers, as critical minerals like antimony are increasingly entangled in geopolitical tensions. In 2021-2022, China produced 20,000t of antimony metal and exported 2,700t, while antimony trioxide production reached 29,600t, with 12,400t exported.

Substitution Pressures Threaten Antimony Demand

Antimony's dominant role in flame-retardant applications has long been challenged by substitute materials such as tin dioxide, cerium dioxide, magnesium hydroxide, and certain rare earth compounds. The World Health Organization (WHO) classifies antimony trioxide as a probable carcinogen, prompting some European countries to restrict its use in consumer products like toys, electronics, and cosmetics.

With antimony prices still elevated—hovering well above Yn90,000/t, the level many buyers in the flame-retardant industry consider viable—substitution pressures are expected to rise. However, complete replacement is unlikely, as antimony-bromine flame retardants remain unique in preserving plastic structure, unlike most alternatives. Plastic manufacturers are likely to continue using antimony-bromine compounds as long as bromine prices remain low.

Solar Glass Industry Slowdown May Curb Demand

The solar glass sector, a key growth driver of antimony demand, has been a major consumer of sodium pyroantimonate, a refining agent. Consumption surged from 22,000t in 2022 to 30,000t in 2023, but demand has slowed since July 2024 due to overcapacity concerns.

In November 2024, the Chinese government tightened photovoltaic manufacturing regulations, shifting the focus from rapid expansion to technological innovation and quality improvements. This policy change is expected to curb antimony demand from the photovoltaic (PV) industry in 2025.

Tight Concentrate Supply to Prevent Major Price Declines

Despite weakened demand, China's antimony prices are unlikely to return to 2022-2023 levels due to ongoing supply constraints. Since November 2024, Chinese antimony metal producers have been reluctant to cut prices, citing concentrate shortages as their primary concern.

To compensate for declining domestic reserves, China increased antimony concentrate imports by 44% year-on-year, reaching 45,136t from January to October 2024, according to customs data. However, low metal content (20-30%) in these imports has limited their effectiveness.

China’s annual metal content production of antimony fell from 6,000-8,500t pre-2020 to 3,500-4,100t in 2021-2023, reflecting severe resource depletion. 2024 production is estimated at 4,500t, with no significant rebound expected in 2025.

Conclusion

China's antimony market is caught between declining demand and supply shortages. While export restrictions, substitution risks, and a slowdown in solar glass production threaten consumption, resource depletion and low-grade imports will keep supplies constrained. As a result, antimony prices are expected to remain elevated despite short-term volatility.

China’s policies are reshaping the global tungsten market

International Tungsten Industry Association

China’s tightening controls are fundamentally reshaping the global tungsten market and forcing buyers to rethink supply strategies. The global tungsten market now faces record prices, acute shortages outside China and rising geopolitical risk. As a result, investors and consumers across the global tungsten market are reassessing where to source and where to deploy capital.

China’s export controls on ammonium paratungstate (APT) and tungsten trioxide have sharply reduced export availability. At the same time, China’s surging appetite for tungsten concentrates has deepened shortages in Europe and other consuming regions. Therefore, tungsten prices have climbed to record levels in both APT and concentrate markets.

Meanwhile, import data show that China has become an aggressive buyer of concentrates, with first-half 2025 imports up 75pc year on year. This shift has pushed European and Japanese buyers to pursue alternative strategies, including buying concentrates instead of APT and intensifying recycling and non-Chinese partnerships.

Supply shock exposes vulnerabilities in the global tungsten market

China accounts for roughly 80pc of global APT supply and is now exporting far less material. Since Beijing expanded its export licence regime in February, APT exports dropped by 42pc in January-June 2025 versus a year earlier. Similarly, exports of tungsten trioxide fell by 76pc, leaving European consumers scrambling for units.

As a result, European APT prices have surged to fresh highs of $580–645/mtu duty unpaid Rotterdam. This represents a roughly 20pc increase since the start of the year and a jump from $550–600/mtu only days earlier. European tungsten concentrate prices have followed, rising to $500–520/dmtu in-warehouse Rotterdam, up nearly 30pc year on year.

Consequently, downstream consumers and midstream processors are re-engineering their sourcing models. Buyers are shifting from APT to concentrates where possible and are strengthening ties with alternative suppliers such as Vietnam. Meanwhile, Japanese buyers are boosting recycling rates and deepening co-operation with smelters in Germany and the US to reduce exposure to China.

However, traders find themselves squeezed as limited material flows directly to end users. Many trading houses are sidelined in spot activity and instead look to position themselves with long-term strategies and optionality. This structural shift underlines how fragile and concentrated current tungsten supply chains remain.

Uncertain outlook complicates investment in non-Chinese tungsten projects

On paper, today’s high prices and tightness strongly support new western tungsten projects. Yet equity and debt investors remain wary about whether current conditions in the global tungsten market are durable. Many tungsten mining projects are years from production, and investors fear that a shift in Chinese policy could quickly loosen fundamentals.

Geopolitics further clouds the investment case. The evolving US-China trade conflict and Europe’s position “in the middle” both influence tungsten flows but do not offer clear long-term signals. The US is accelerating efforts to secure domestic supply and support new mines, while Europe is also expected to attract investment as it seeks strategic autonomy. Still, long-term policy direction remains uncertain.

At the same time, Chinese producers stress that tightness reflects genuine domestic demand, not a short-term export tactic. China’s industrial strategy has moved from low-cost manufacturing toward high-value sectors such as photovoltaics. Forecasts suggest tungsten-wire demand from the PV sector could grow 40–50pc annually over the next five years, requiring around 8,000t of tungsten by 2027.

Therefore, it appears unlikely that China will import large volumes of concentrates only to flood European markets later. While China clearly has the ability to do so, conference participants see that scenario as implausible given the strength of its internal consumption. For now, the base case is high but stabilising prices, with the next few months likely to shape long-term procurement and investment decisions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s gradual pivot from “world’s tungsten factory” to voracious downstream consumer is forcing a structural repricing of risk. For miners and financiers outside China, the challenge is to move before the window closes, yet not overbuild into a market still governed by Beijing’s policy choices. Buyers who secure diversified, traceable tungsten supply now may find that this period of pain ultimately buys them strategic resilience.

T1 Energy Plans 5GW Solar Cell Plant in Texas to Strengthen US Supply Chain

T1 Energy

Texas Facility Marks New Phase for US Solar Manufacturing

T1 Energy announced plans to build a 5GW solar cell facility in Texas, aiming to address critical gaps in the US solar supply chain. The $850mn G2_Austin plant is scheduled to start production by late 2026. This project follows T1 Energy’s acquisition of Trina Solar’s US assets in 2024 and a rebranding from Freyr Battery, which abandoned its $2.6bn battery storage project in Georgia.

The new facility will supply cells to the 5GW G1_Dallas module plant, reducing reliance on imports from Asia. Current US solar cell capacity remains just 2GW, compared to 56GW of module production. This imbalance highlights the urgency of building more domestic cell production.

US Tariffs and Technology Drive Expansion

T1 Energy’s Texas project benefits from US tariffs and tax incentives, which encourage domestic solar manufacturing. The US Commerce Department has imposed anti-dumping duties on PV cells from Southeast Asia to counter circumvention of Chinese tariffs. Meanwhile, T1 Energy will adopt high-efficiency TOPCon technology, which uses n-type polysilicon. This move reflects the global shift from older Perc technology toward higher-performing solar cells.

However, tariff uncertainty has caused the company to lower its module production forecast for 2025 to 2.6–3GW, down from 3.4GW. T1 Energy is also holding off on long-term power purchase agreements until cost visibility improves. Despite these challenges, the Austin facility represents a major step toward reshoring solar cell production and securing domestic supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

T1 Energy’s 5GW solar cell project signals a turning point for US clean energy policy, linking tariffs, incentives, and new technology adoption. If executed successfully, this facility could strengthen US energy independence while setting a precedent for integrated solar manufacturing in North America. However, cost pressures and tariff volatility remain significant risks for long-term stability.

US solar import inquiry moves forward after ITC ruling

US solar

The US solar import inquiry will continue after the ITC found reasonable indication of injury. The US solar import inquiry targets crystalline silicon PV cells from India, Indonesia, and Laos. As a result, the US solar import inquiry could trigger antidumping and countervailing duties.

Scope, countries, and claims

Petitions allege dumping and government subsidies that undercut US manufacturers. The case focuses on Chinese-owned operations in Indonesia and Laos, and firms in India. However, the inquiry covers cells, whether or not assembled into modules.

The Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade led the filings. Members include First Solar, Mission Solar Energy, and Qcells. Therefore, the coalition spans thin film and crystalline producers across several states.

Regulators will examine sales below normal value and countervailable subsidies. They will also assess whether imports distort prices and harm domestic capacity. Meanwhile, US producers argue duties are needed to halt a “race to the bottom.”

Timeline, duties, and industry impact

Commerce will issue a preliminary countervailing ruling by 13 October. It will follow with a preliminary antidumping ruling on 26 December. Final determinations will come in 2026, after additional investigations.

Potential remedies include countervailing and separate antidumping duties. These measures could raise import costs from the three countries. As a result, developers may face higher module prices and tighter supply.

US buyers have leaned on Asia to meet project timelines. However, policy shifts continue to reshape sourcing and build-out plans. Therefore, procurement strategies must hedge duty risk and tax incentive deadlines.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Trade risk is back at the center of US solar procurement. Watch preliminary rates in October and December, which will steer 2026 contract pricing. Developers should diversify suppliers and sync interconnection milestones with SMART-style or IRA timelines.

Long-duration Energy Storage Set to Surpass Lithium-ion Batteries

Despite many long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies being in their infancy and more expensive than lithium-ion batteries, some are already achieving or are expected to achieve lower costs for longer durations, according to BloombergNEF.

From pv magazine ESS News site

The interest in long-duration energy storage (LDES) is growing swiftly as the demand for reliable clean energy capacity increases. Since most LDES technologies are still developing, cost information is not widely available. BloombergNEF aims to bring clarity with its first LDES cost survey.

In their report, BNEF analyzed seven LDES technology groups and 20 technology types, discovering that the most affordable technologies are already offering cheaper storage solutions than lithium-ion batteries for durations exceeding eight hours.

Thermal energy storage and compressed air storage reported average capital expenditures (capex) of $232/kWh and $293/kWh, respectively. In contrast, lithium-ion systems had an average capex of $304/kWh for four-hour duration systems in 2023, which are generally used for shorter-term storage.

The factors influencing LDES capex include storage duration, project size, and location. Gravity energy storage systems, which lift weights during charging and release them in a controlled manner during discharging, have the highest average capex at $643/kWh.

The pace of cost reduction for LDES technologies will largely depend on the scale of deployment and the development of market pathways in key regions, according to BNEF.

China industrial energy storage surges as metallurgical plants seek reliable power

Metallurgical plants

China industrial energy storage is rapidly expanding as metallurgical and chemical plants pair rooftop solar with behind-the-meter batteries. China industrial energy storage is growing on the back of record solar additions and rising concerns over power curtailments. As a result, China industrial energy storage is emerging as a key pillar of corporate decarbonisation and energy security strategies.

Metallurgical users lead China industrial energy storage build-out

China’s installed solar capacity reached 1,130GW by the end of September, up 46pc year on year. Meanwhile, user-side energy storage additions hit 0.24GW and 0.49GWh that month, still modest but growing quickly. Industrial and commercial customers accounted for more than 95pc of these user-side systems, underlining where the strongest business case now lies.

Projects from metallurgy, chemical and textile companies made up 73pc of new user-side capacity. This confirms that carbon reduction and power reliability are now core drivers of China industrial energy storage. Heavy users are installing co-located solar PV and batteries to cut emissions, stabilise operations and hedge against grid disruptions. For metals producers, such systems can protect continuous furnaces and electro-intensive processes from costly outages.

LFP batteries dominated the new capacity, accounting for 99.96pc of installations. However, a 90kW, 180kWh sodium-ion system also came online for an industrial user, signalling gradual diversification. Behind-the-meter solar-plus-storage projects allow factories to maximise on-site solar output and store surplus for peak hours. They also reduce exposure to curtailment and potential policy shifts in grid pricing.

Regional hotspots and scaling trajectory for China industrial energy storage

User-side energy storage growth is highly regional. Fifteen provinces commissioned new projects in September, with eastern hubs leading activity. Eastern China represented 71pc of new capacity and 43pc of project numbers, reflecting dense industrial clusters and stronger grid constraints. Jiangsu contributed nearly half of national new capacity, while Zhejiang led on project count with more than 20pc.

Zhejiang, Guangdong and Jiangsu together recorded more than 740 new user-side projects. Project numbers declined by 9pc year on year, yet total capacity jumped 68pc. This shift shows a clear move toward larger, higher-capacity China industrial energy storage systems. Bigger battery blocks better match the load profiles of smelters, rolling mills and chemical complexes.

Overall, China commissioned 3.08GW and 9.08GWh of new energy storage in September, including utility-scale systems. That represented annual growth of 166pc and 200pc, respectively. For the third quarter, new capacity reached 9.16GW and 25.52GWh, up 10pc and 24pc year on year. Installations between January and September already equalled 74pc of the 2025 full-year total, suggesting this year will exceed last year’s deployment. This trajectory ensures China industrial energy storage will remain a central pillar of the country’s broader storage boom.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s metals and chemicals producers are quietly driving a structural shift toward on-site solar-plus-storage. For industrials facing both decarbonisation pressure and fragile grid reliability, user-side batteries offer a rare win-win. The next test will be whether policy and market design can keep pace with the speed of industrial adoption.