Hanrui Indonesian Nickel Smelter Faces Delays but Signals Long-Term EV Ambitions

Indonesian Nickel Smelter

Chinese cobalt major Hanrui has delayed the launch of its Indonesian nickel smelter, citing permit extensions and geological challenges. The Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter project, located in Central Sulawesi, will now commence production in March 2026, ten months later than planned.

Construction Shifts Toward Nickel Matte Output

Hanrui Nickel Indonesia, a subsidiary of Nanjing Hanrui, will operate the facility within Huabao Industrial Park. While the project originally targeted mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), the company has shifted focus to nickel matte production. The plant will produce 20,000 tonnes per year of nickel metal equivalent using oxygen-enriched continuous blowing technology. Construction is expected to take 15 months, though a detailed timeline is still pending.

This pivot reflects Hanrui’s strategic move to meet rising demand for nickel matte in the global electric vehicle (EV) battery market. Indonesia, with its abundant laterite resources, remains central to Chinese companies’ raw material supply strategies.

Fiscal Incentives and Long-Term Strategic Goals

The Indonesian government has granted Hanrui Nickel Indonesia a seven-year corporate income tax exemption. Following that, the project will receive a 50% income tax reduction for an additional two years. These tax incentives are part of Jakarta’s broader effort to localize value-added processing and attract foreign investment into its nickel sector.

Despite the delay, Hanrui views the Indonesian nickel smelter as a cornerstone in its ambition to deepen involvement in the EV battery supply chain. The project is expected to enhance China’s influence in critical battery materials and align with global trends in securing upstream supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Although delayed, the Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter illustrates China’s enduring strategy to dominate EV raw materials. With tax breaks and technological shifts toward nickel matte, Hanrui is positioning itself for long-term relevance in the global battery ecosystem.

Hanrui Indonesian Nickel Smelter Nears Completion With Hot Commissioning Start

Hanrui Indonesian

Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter development has moved into hot commissioning, signalling that Nanjing Hanrui’s delayed nickel matte project in Central Sulawesi is nearing completion. The Chinese cobalt producer launched the commissioning phase on 10 April at the Huabao Industrial Park in Morowali.

The Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter is designed to produce 20,000 t/yr of nickel matte on a nickel metal equivalent basis. The project will use oxygen-enriched continuous blowing technology to convert nickel feedstock into matte for downstream processing.

Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter progress matters because Indonesia remains the centre of global nickel capacity growth. New matte projects help connect Indonesian nickel resources with battery materials supply chains, especially where producers need feedstock for nickel sulphate and other battery-grade products.

Hot Commissioning Marks Final Step Before Commercial Output

Hot commissioning means production lines are being tested under operating conditions before full commercial production begins. This stage is important because it tests equipment integration, process stability, safety systems and product quality.

Hanrui had originally planned to start production in May 2025, but later deferred the schedule to March 2026. The start of hot commissioning now suggests the company is moving closer to operational readiness after earlier delays.

The project’s location in Morowali gives Hanrui access to one of Indonesia’s most important nickel industrial clusters. Morowali has become a major processing centre for Chinese-backed nickel investments, supported by integrated infrastructure, smelting capacity and downstream materials ambitions.

Chinese Producers Expand Nickel Matte Capacity in Indonesia

Hanrui’s project forms part of a broader Chinese investment wave in Indonesian nickel processing. Chinese companies are building matte, mixed hydroxide precipitate, ferronickel and other nickel products to serve both stainless steel and battery markets.

Huayou has also started construction of its Huaxing nickel matte project at the Indonesia Pomalaa Industry Park. That project is planned for 40,000 t/yr of nickel matte on a nickel metal equivalent basis, although Huayou has not disclosed its construction timeline or start-up date.

The expansion of nickel matte capacity gives Chinese producers more flexibility in feedstock flows. It also strengthens Indonesia’s position as a processing base, not only an ore supplier.

However, new capacity still faces execution risks. Power supply, sulphur availability, environmental controls, commissioning performance and market prices will determine how quickly these projects move from nameplate capacity to stable commercial production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hanrui’s hot commissioning shows that Indonesia’s nickel buildout continues despite delays and market uncertainty. The strategic issue is whether new matte capacity can ramp smoothly enough to support battery supply chains without adding further pressure to an already competitive nickel market.

Indonesian Nickel Permits Tighten as RKAB Rules Change Again

Indonesian Nickel mining

Indonesia’s latest overhaul of Indonesian nickel permits is reshaping mine planning, contracts and investment confidence. The government has reverted RKAB mine work plans and budgets to one year, cancelling previously approved 2026–27 allocations. For now, 2025 approvals remain valid, but operators must re-apply for later years under new procedures. This shift places Indonesian nickel permits at the centre of policy risk for global nickel supply.

One-year RKABs tighten control over Indonesian nickel permits

The return to one-year RKABs gives the state tighter control over Indonesian nickel permits each year. Regulators say annual approvals will help align production and sales with prices and fiscal needs. Mining firms must now submit the following year’s RKAB between 1 October and 15 November, compressing planning windows. As a result, mine operators face more frequent reviews of volumes, sales plans and compliance obligations.

However, the change reverses last year’s shift to three-year RKABs, which aimed to support long-term investment. That earlier framework gave lenders and smelter investors longer visibility on ore flows and project economics. By shortening validity again, authorities prioritise macro control over micro-level stability for mining companies. This inconsistency increases the perceived regulatory risk embedded in Indonesian nickel permits and related offtake contracts.

Policy volatility keeps investors wary despite muted nickel price reaction

Nickel prices have barely reacted to the latest change in Indonesian nickel permits, reflecting today’s oversupplied market. Class-1 nickel cash prices remain rangebound near recent levels as surplus capacity caps rallies. For traders, near-term fundamentals still outweigh policy noise, limiting any immediate price spike. Yet annual permit renewals raise the probability of future caps, curbs or sudden production adjustments.

Investors now must factor policy volatility into long-life projects built around Indonesian feedstock. Smelter and HPAL developers depend on stable ore flows to service debt and secure offtake. Frequent changes to rules governing Indonesian nickel permits increase the hurdle rate for new capital. Over time, some buyers may diversify towards alternative jurisdictions that offer slower growth but clearer governance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia will remain the dominant force in global nickel, but regulatory whiplash is eroding complacency. Downstream users and financiers should treat annual RKAB cycles as a structural risk and stress-test supply scenarios beyond Indonesia’s borders.

Indonesia Nickel Ore Quotas Risk Tightening Feedstock Without Fixing Oversupply

Indonesia Nickel

Indonesia nickel ore quotas are becoming a more powerful market signal in 2026. Jakarta is expected to cut RKAB approvals to around 250mn–260mn t. That looks like a strong intervention on paper. However, Indonesia nickel ore quotas may tighten feedstock without solving Indonesian nickel oversupply in downstream products.

The core imbalance is no longer in ore. The real surplus sits in nickel pig iron, matte, and mixed hydroxide precipitate. Domestic ore prices remain elevated, which suggests ore availability is still tight. Therefore, Indonesia nickel ore quotas may create upstream stress while leaving downstream nickel products oversupplied.

This matters because policy and market structure are moving in opposite directions. Indonesia continues to expand smelting and HPAL capacity aggressively. At the same time, ore quotas are becoming harder to secure in full. As a result, the market may move toward feedstock shortages rather than a true rebalancing of refined nickel supply.

Indonesia Nickel Ore Quotas Could Create an Upstream Bottleneck

Indonesia nickel ore quotas appear lower than expected ore demand for 2026. The approved ceiling now looks below estimated domestic ore requirements. That gap raises the risk of feedstock shortages for smelters. Consequently, nickel ore supply tightness may become the market’s next major problem.

Vale Indonesia shows how this pressure is already emerging. Market participants say its approved RKAB is only a fraction of requested volume. Yet the company is developing multiple HPAL projects that will require large limonite ore volumes. Therefore, limited quota approvals could constrain new downstream capacity before it reaches full utilisation.

The ore issue is also more complex than headline tonnage suggests. RKAB quotas are issued in wet tons, not uniform recoverable nickel units. Moisture content and ore grade can vary significantly. As a result, nominal quota levels may overstate real usable feedstock availability.

Regulatory uncertainty adds another layer of risk. Indonesia’s forestry crackdown has targeted a large area of mining land without valid permits. Nickel operations could be affected, especially smaller miners or forest-zone projects. Meanwhile, quota delays themselves can disrupt ore availability even before formal supply cuts take full effect.

Indonesian Nickel Oversupply Will Persist Unless Smelter Output Is Also Disciplined

Indonesian nickel oversupply is still concentrated in processed products, not in ore. Cutting ore quotas alone does not automatically solve NPI, matte, or MHP oversupply. Smelters can still try to secure imported feedstock from the Philippines or New Caledonia. However, those alternative sources remain limited and unreliable.

That means imported ore is a cost issue, not a structural solution. Greater reliance on foreign ore would lift smelter input costs and compress margins. It would not remove the global glut in downstream nickel products. Therefore, the policy may shift pressure upstream while preserving the same downstream oversupply.

Royalties could deepen that squeeze further. Higher nickel prices may trigger increased royalty rates on ore and processed products. That would raise costs across the chain at a time when refined markets remain weak. As a result, profitability could deteriorate even if LME prices stay temporarily supported.

The government may still adjust course later in the year. Producers can use part of earlier three-year approvals through the end of March, and market participants expect later reviews. That suggests the headline RKAB figure may not be a fixed ceiling. Even so, policy uncertainty is already becoming a stronger driver of nickel prices than actual market healing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia is trying to influence prices through ore control, but the real surplus remains downstream. That mismatch could turn a refined nickel glut into an upstream bottleneck without delivering true market balance. Unless ore discipline is matched by smelter discipline, volatility will remain the defining feature of the nickel market.

ARM Nkomati Nickel Mine Restart Moves Closer With Boliden Concentrate Deal

African Rainbow Minerals

ARM Nkomati nickel mine restart prospects have strengthened after African Rainbow Minerals signed a multi-year nickel concentrate sales agreement with Swedish mining and smelting group Boliden. The agreement could support the return of one of South Africa’s important multi-metal nickel assets.

The ARM Nkomati nickel mine has been on care and maintenance since 2020. ARM and Norilsk Nickel placed the operation into suspension after profitability weakened because of lower output.

The ARM Nkomati nickel mine produced nickel, copper, cobalt, chrome and platinum group metals. Its potential restart would therefore add more than nickel units to the market, supporting several metals linked to batteries, stainless steel, alloys and industrial supply chains.

The deal with Boliden remains conditional. It depends on approval to recommence open-pit mining of nickel-bearing ore at Nkomati, responsible sourcing due diligence by Boliden and other regulatory clearances.

Boliden Agreement Gives Nkomati a Processing Route

The sales agreement gives ARM a potential outlet for Nkomati nickel concentrate if mining restarts. Boliden expects the concentrate to be shipped to its Harjavalta smelter in Finland.

Harjavalta produces nickel matte, making it a logical destination for nickel-bearing concentrate. The route would connect South African mine supply with European smelting capacity.

This matters because nickel concentrate needs secure processing access before a restart can become commercially meaningful. A mine can have geological potential, but it still needs offtake, logistics, smelting capacity and customer qualification.

Boliden’s responsible sourcing due diligence is also important. European smelters and customers increasingly require stronger documentation around mine origin, ESG standards and supply-chain integrity.

The agreement therefore does more than provide a buyer. It gives the Nkomati restart a possible downstream pathway into a European refining and smelting system.

For ARM, the deal could improve the commercial case for reopening the mine. For Boliden, it could provide another concentrate source for its nickel operations at a time when secure non-Indonesian nickel supply remains strategically relevant.

South African Nickel Supply Could Regain Strategic Relevance

Nkomati’s ownership structure has changed since the mine entered care and maintenance. Nornickel’s South African subsidiary agreed in November 2023 to transfer its 50% stake to ARM, and the transaction was finalised in July 2025.

Full ARM control gives the South African company more direct strategic flexibility. It can evaluate restart options without the same joint-venture complexity that previously shaped the asset.

The potential restart comes at a time when nickel markets remain divided. Indonesia dominates new supply growth, but European and western buyers are increasingly interested in diversified, traceable and geopolitically balanced feedstock.

Nkomati’s multi-metal profile adds to its relevance. Nickel remains important for stainless steel, batteries and superalloys. Cobalt supports batteries and high-performance alloys. Platinum group metals serve automotive catalysts, hydrogen technologies and industrial applications.

However, restart economics will be the decisive issue. The mine was suspended because lower output weakened profitability. Any recommencement will need a stronger operating plan, stable grades, reliable processing economics and clear market support.

The Boliden agreement is an important step, but not the final decision. The project still needs operational approval, regulatory clearance and successful due diligence before concentrate flows can resume.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ARM-Boliden agreement shows that idled nickel assets can regain value when buyers prioritise diversified and traceable supply. Nkomati’s restart will depend less on headline nickel prices alone and more on whether ARM can rebuild a reliable mine-to-smelter route.

Centaurus Glencore Nickel Offtake Strengthens Jaguar Project Financing Path

Centaurus Glencore

Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake has given the Jaguar nickel project a stronger commercial base as Centaurus Metals moves toward financing and development in Brazil. The binding agreement secures a major customer for future high-grade nickel concentrate and supports the company’s plan to reach a final investment decision.

Glencore will purchase 20,000 dry metric tonnes per year of 32% nickel concentrate from Jaguar for an initial five-year period starting in 2029. The volume is equivalent to about 6,400 tonnes per year of contained nickel.

The concentrate will be shipped to Glencore’s Sudbury smelting operations in Canada for processing. This gives the Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake clear downstream integration and links Brazilian mine development with established North American nickel smelting capacity.

Jaguar Nickel Project Gains Commercial Validation

The Jaguar nickel project is expected to produce 65,000 tonnes per year of nickel concentrate, meaning the Glencore contract covers roughly one-third of planned output. This contracted volume improves project bankability because lenders often require visible offtake before supporting mine development.

Pricing will be linked to the London Metal Exchange nickel cash settlement price. Nickel payability will vary with market conditions, while copper and cobalt by-products contained in the concentrate will also receive payability.

At current nickel prices of around $17,200 per tonne, the agreement could generate more than $450 million in revenue during the initial contract period. That revenue visibility matters as Centaurus works with Brazil’s national development bank on potential debt financing and seeks a strategic investor.

The agreement remains conditional on key development milestones. Centaurus must make a final investment decision by 30 September 2026, complete half of tailings dam construction by December 2027, and achieve first concentrate production by 15 January 2029.

Nickel Market Recovery Supports New Sulphide Supply

The Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake comes as nickel markets show signs of tightening after several years of weak pricing. Rapid growth from Indonesian laterite supply pressured global prices, but recent gains above $17,000 per tonne suggest the market may be moving closer to balance.

Jaguar’s sulphide concentrate profile gives the project strategic relevance. High-grade concentrate can feed conventional smelting routes and may become more valuable if buyers seek diversified nickel units outside the dominant Indonesian laterite chain.

Centaurus expects Jaguar to produce an average of 22,600 tonnes per year of contained nickel during its first seven years. The proposed 3.5 million tonne per year operation is forecast to produce nickel at all-in sustaining costs of about $9,764 per tonne.

The project also carries industrial history. Centaurus acquired Jaguar in 2019 after it was previously owned by Vale, giving the company a known Brazilian nickel asset at a time when battery, stainless steel, and alloy supply chains remain focused on secure feedstock.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake shows that disciplined sulphide nickel projects can still attract strategic buyers despite years of weak nickel prices. If the market keeps tightening, high-grade concentrate with smelter-ready characteristics could regain importance in global nickel supply chains.

Indonesia Nickel Mining Quota Cut Could Tighten Ore Supply in 2026

ESDM

Indonesia nickel mining quota cut is emerging as one of the most important supply-side developments in the 2026 nickel market. Indonesia’s energy ministry is expected to reduce the 2026 RKAB quota to around 260mn-270mn tonnes. That is far below the 2025 approved quota of 379mn tonnes. As a result, Indonesia nickel mining quota cut is raising concerns about ore availability for the country’s smelter network.

This matters because Indonesia remains the center of global nickel supply growth. A lower RKAB nickel quota could leave ore availability well below expected domestic consumption in 2026. That gap may force smelters to cut output or search for imported material. Therefore, Indonesia nickel ore supply is becoming the main issue behind the market’s next move.

The timing also matters for sentiment. Nickel prices have already reacted to tighter supply expectations, policy shifts, and geopolitical risk. Market participants now see the quota cut as part of a broader government effort to manage ore prices and supply discipline. Consequently, the 2026 nickel market outlook is becoming more supportive for prices than before.

RKAB Nickel Quota May Tighten Supply Faster Than Smelters Can Adjust

RKAB nickel quota levels now look lower than expected ore consumption for 2026. That creates a structural mismatch between mine output approvals and downstream processing demand. Some market participants believe imports may cover part of the shortfall. However, imports alone are unlikely to fill the full gap.

This is why Indonesia nickel mining quota cut matters beyond headline tonnage. The country’s smelters depend on large and stable ore flows to maintain NPI, matte, and HPAL production. If ore supply tightens meaningfully, the pressure will move quickly into refined nickel and battery material output. As a result, the quota decision could influence the entire downstream chain.

There is still uncertainty around timing. The new quota is expected to take full effect only from April. That leaves room for short-term adjustments and market positioning before the cut fully hits physical flows. Meanwhile, producers and traders are watching closely for any sign of softer enforcement or later policy revision.

2026 Nickel Market Outlook Depends on Policy Flexibility and Ore Availability

2026 nickel market outlook now depends on whether Indonesia keeps supply tight or allows more quota later. Some market participants still expect another round of RKAB applications and approvals in the next quarter. That possibility is keeping part of the market cautious about calling a full supply squeeze. Therefore, policy flexibility remains a major variable.

Even so, the direction of travel is clear. Indonesia wants greater control over nickel pricing and ore market behavior. A lower mining quota supports that goal by reducing available feedstock and tightening domestic supply conditions. As a result, Indonesia nickel mining quota cut may act as both an industrial policy tool and a price-support mechanism.

This shift also changes how the market sees Indonesia. For years, the country was treated mainly as a volume maximizer. Now it is increasingly acting like a swing supplier with more active control over ore release. Consequently, the 2026 nickel market outlook may be shaped less by endless Indonesian growth and more by managed constraint.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This quota cut matters because it challenges one of the market’s biggest assumptions: that Indonesian ore supply will always expand fast enough to feed new smelters. That may no longer be true. If Jakarta keeps tighter control over RKAB approvals, nickel prices could find firmer support than the market has seen in recent years.

MMP nickel matte supply to China rises with new East Kalimantan smelter

Mitra Murni Perkasa

MMP nickel matte supply to China will increase after production began on 26 June. Indonesia’s first domestically owned nickel producer started high-grade nickel matte in Kariangau. The RKEF smelter is designed for 28,000 t per year of HGNM. The nickel content exceeds 70 percent, above typical Indonesian grades.

Capacity, technology, and upstream integration

MMP nickel matte supply to China benefits from fully domestic funding and ownership. The project supports Indonesia’s battery supply-chain ambitions and energy transition goals. Chinese EPC firm ENFI built the plant under a 2023 agreement. ENFI is also constructing a 52,000 t per year HGNM project for Posco. Therefore, regional engineering depth should aid reliability and ramp-up.

Market context, pricing, and feedstock choices

China imported about 194,641 t of nickel matte in January–May, up 42 percent year on year. Indonesia supplied roughly 85.6 percent of those volumes. However, offers paused in June amid thin margins, then resumed in early July. Downstream users still view MHP as more cost-effective than HGNM. As a result, smelter premiums will track rival feedstock economics.

MMP nickel matte supply to China could stabilize feed for converters and battery precursors. Meanwhile, higher HGNM grade may improve unit transport and refining economics. Yet pricing must compete with MHP and intermediates tied to sulfate routes. Therefore, offtake terms and sulfuric acid balances will be closely watched.

The Metalnomist Commentary

MMP adds a domestically funded node to Indonesia’s nickel value chain and China’s feed security. The commercial test will be margins versus MHP and contract flexibility. Watch ENFI’s execution, blending strategies, and delivered costs into coastal China.

Eramet Weda Bay Nickel Quota Cut Raises New Supply Risks for Indonesia

PT Weda Bay Nickel

Eramet Weda Bay nickel quota cut has become a major new concern for the global nickel market. PT Weda Bay Nickel received a 2026 RKAB quota of just 12mn wet metric tonnes. That is far below its 42mn wmt allocation in 2025. As a result, Eramet Weda Bay nickel quota cut is intensifying fears over tighter Indonesian ore supply.

This matters because Weda Bay Nickel is the world’s largest nickel mine. The operation is a joint venture between Eramet and Tsingshan. It also remains the dominant ore supplier to Weda Bay Industrial Park. Therefore, a 70pc quota reduction creates risk far beyond one company.

The company had requested an unchanged 42mn wmt allocation for 2026. That request included 3mn t for its own NPI smelter in Weda Bay. The final decision came in far lower than that level. Consequently, the market now sees a much tighter supply environment than expected.

Indonesia Nickel Ore Supply Faces a Sharper Constraint

Indonesia nickel ore supply is now under stronger pressure as the government tightens RKAB approvals. Jakarta had already signalled a lower national quota of 260mn-270mn t for 2026. The Weda Bay decision now gives that policy a much more concrete impact. As a result, ore tightness is no longer a theory. It is becoming a real operating issue.

Weda Bay Nickel plans to submit another application for a higher quota. That means policy uncertainty is still not fully settled. However, the current reduction already changes market expectations. Therefore, 2026 nickel prices may stay supported while smelters wait for clearer guidance.

Imports may help at the margin, but they cannot fully solve the problem. Weda Bay is too important to replace easily. If ore flows stay constrained, downstream output will likely face pressure. Meanwhile, project timelines could also come under strain.

Weda Bay Industrial Park Could Face Production and Expansion Pressure

Weda Bay Industrial Park is especially exposed because it depends heavily on Weda Bay ore. The site hosts major MHP, NPI, and matte capacity. That includes Huafei and the newly launched Blue Sparking Energy MHP project. Therefore, Eramet Weda Bay nickel quota cut could affect both current production and future ramp-ups.

The scale of IWIP makes this even more important. The park is projected to produce around 550,000t in nickel metal equivalent in 2025. That makes it Indonesia’s largest nickel production hub, ahead of IMIP. As a result, any ore disruption at Weda Bay has system-wide importance.

The market now faces a new question. Can Indonesia keep downstream growth on track while holding ore supply tighter? That question will shape the next phase of nickel pricing, project execution, and investor confidence. Consequently, the quota decision may become one of the most important nickel policy signals of 2026.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This quota cut matters because it targets the ore source that feeds Indonesia’s most important nickel hub. The key shift is clear. Indonesia is no longer acting only as a volume maximizer. It is acting more like a supply manager, and the nickel market will have to reprice that reality.

Eramet and BASF Cancel $2.6 Billion Nickel Smelter Investment in Indonesia

French mining company Eramet and German chemical giant BASF have decided to cancel their planned joint investment in a nickel-cobalt refining complex in Weda Bay, Indonesia. This decision, announced on June 24, 2024, was made after a thorough evaluation of the project's feasibility and the current market conditions​.

The primary reason for the cancellation is the anticipated short-term oversupply of nickel, driven by a temporary stagnation in electric vehicle (EV) market demand, a phenomenon often referred to as the "chasm." BASF explained that with the global supply of nickel for EV batteries improving, the necessity for their investment in the Indonesian facility has diminished​​.

Eramet, while canceling this specific project, mentioned that it will continue to explore potential investments in the nickel EV battery value chain in Indonesia and will update the market when appropriate. The initial plan, announced in January 2023, aimed to invest $2.6 billion to build a high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) facility designed to produce 67,000 tons of nickel and 7,500 tons of cobalt annually​​.

Indonesian officials noted that the decision might also have been influenced by the existing and planned HPAL facilities in the country, which would make it easier to obtain mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) without needing substantial new capital expenditure​​.

This development reflects broader trends in the global nickel market, where Indonesia's share of nickel mine supply has surged from 26% in 2018 to 55% in 2023, with the production of nickel intermediates more than doubling over the same period. Despite the anticipated 8.7% increase in global nickel production this year, demand growth is expected to lag at around 4%​​.

Indonesia’s Nickel Ambitions Face Obstacles Amid HPAL Expansion

HPAL

Indonesia is poised to increase its nickel production in the coming years, primarily by boosting its high-pressure acid-leaching (HPAL) capacity. However, this ambitious plan faces significant hurdles, notably the scarcity of sulphuric acid and challenges in managing tailings waste effectively. Despite these concerns, production is still expected to grow, even as the global nickel market anticipates a surplus.

Sulphuric Acid Supply and Tailings Management: Key Challenges

The HPAL process relies heavily on sulphuric acid to extract nickel and cobalt from ore, producing mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), which is essential for downstream nickel sulphate and battery production. Indonesia is projected to produce between 325,000 to 345,000 tons of MHP this year, a jump from 269,000 tons in 2023. With several new MHP projects on the horizon, output is expected to rise significantly, potentially tripling to 800,000-900,000 tons by 2026, as highlighted by Indonesia's Deputy Minister Septian Hario Seto during a recent metal industry event in London.

The increase in MHP production will necessitate more nickel ore and sulphuric acid, raising concerns about the sustainability of limonite ore supplies, which could deplete quickly like saprolite ore, currently used for nickel pig iron and matte production. The Indonesian government plans to address these issues with industry stakeholders.

Currently, Indonesia's four operational HPAL facilities—Huayou's Huayue and Huafei projects, GEM's QMB project, and Lygend's HPAL project—have been importing sulphuric acid primarily from China and South Korea. However, the rising cost has led some producers, such as Halmahera Persada Lygend, to switch to cheaper sulphur alternatives. The startup of new smelters, like Freeport McMoran's Manyar in Java and AMNT's copper smelter in Nusa Tenggara, is expected to add 3 million tons per year of acid capacity by 2025, potentially easing supply pressures.

Another critical issue is the proper disposal of tailings waste, which has come under increased scrutiny due to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards. The HPAL process generates substantial amounts of waste, with energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimating 1.4-1.6 tons of tailings per ton of nickel produced. Three disposal methods—tailings dams, deep sea disposal, and dry stacking—each have their risks, with dry stacking viewed as the more sustainable option. Yet, Indonesia’s wet climate and seismic activity pose challenges for safe waste storage.

To ensure the successful expansion of its HPAL production, Indonesia must secure a stable supply of sulphuric acid and implement sustainable methods for managing tailings waste. Addressing these issues is critical for maintaining the momentum in the country’s nickel production growth while adhering to stricter ESG standards.