China's Antimony Market Faces Weak Demand but Tight Supply in 2025

China antimony

Antimony Prices to Remain High Amid Supply Constraints

China's antimony market is bracing for a dual challenge in 2025: a decline in demand driven by export restrictions, substitution efforts, and slowing solar glass industry growth, coupled with persistent supply tightness due to global resource depletion. These dynamics suggest that while demand-side pressures may lead to short-term price fluctuations, antimony prices are unlikely to drop significantly from their recent record highs.

Export Controls Limit Overseas Sales

Since late August 2024, antimony prices in China’s domestic market have softened slightly, falling from approximately Yn164,000/t to Yn140,000-142,000/t ex-works for 99.65% grade antimony metal. This decline follows export restrictions that have curbed overseas demand, forcing more material into the domestic market.

Market observers remain cautious about additional trade barriers, as critical minerals like antimony are increasingly entangled in geopolitical tensions. In 2021-2022, China produced 20,000t of antimony metal and exported 2,700t, while antimony trioxide production reached 29,600t, with 12,400t exported.

Substitution Pressures Threaten Antimony Demand

Antimony's dominant role in flame-retardant applications has long been challenged by substitute materials such as tin dioxide, cerium dioxide, magnesium hydroxide, and certain rare earth compounds. The World Health Organization (WHO) classifies antimony trioxide as a probable carcinogen, prompting some European countries to restrict its use in consumer products like toys, electronics, and cosmetics.

With antimony prices still elevated—hovering well above Yn90,000/t, the level many buyers in the flame-retardant industry consider viable—substitution pressures are expected to rise. However, complete replacement is unlikely, as antimony-bromine flame retardants remain unique in preserving plastic structure, unlike most alternatives. Plastic manufacturers are likely to continue using antimony-bromine compounds as long as bromine prices remain low.

Solar Glass Industry Slowdown May Curb Demand

The solar glass sector, a key growth driver of antimony demand, has been a major consumer of sodium pyroantimonate, a refining agent. Consumption surged from 22,000t in 2022 to 30,000t in 2023, but demand has slowed since July 2024 due to overcapacity concerns.

In November 2024, the Chinese government tightened photovoltaic manufacturing regulations, shifting the focus from rapid expansion to technological innovation and quality improvements. This policy change is expected to curb antimony demand from the photovoltaic (PV) industry in 2025.

Tight Concentrate Supply to Prevent Major Price Declines

Despite weakened demand, China's antimony prices are unlikely to return to 2022-2023 levels due to ongoing supply constraints. Since November 2024, Chinese antimony metal producers have been reluctant to cut prices, citing concentrate shortages as their primary concern.

To compensate for declining domestic reserves, China increased antimony concentrate imports by 44% year-on-year, reaching 45,136t from January to October 2024, according to customs data. However, low metal content (20-30%) in these imports has limited their effectiveness.

China’s annual metal content production of antimony fell from 6,000-8,500t pre-2020 to 3,500-4,100t in 2021-2023, reflecting severe resource depletion. 2024 production is estimated at 4,500t, with no significant rebound expected in 2025.

Conclusion

China's antimony market is caught between declining demand and supply shortages. While export restrictions, substitution risks, and a slowdown in solar glass production threaten consumption, resource depletion and low-grade imports will keep supplies constrained. As a result, antimony prices are expected to remain elevated despite short-term volatility.