Outokumpu Rebounds to Q1 Profit on Lower Costs and Ferrochrome Gains

Outokumpu

European cost savings and strong ferrochrome drive Outokumpu’s recovery

Outokumpu rebounds to Q1 profit after posting a loss in the previous quarter, driven by cost reductions and robust ferrochrome performance. The Finnish stainless steel producer reported a 29% year-on-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, reaching €49 million in Q1 2025, compared to a loss of €3 million in Q4 2024.

Ferrochrome unit leads growth despite U.S. headwinds

Outokumpu’s ferrochrome unit nearly doubled its EBITDA to €43 million, supported by higher prices and strong external demand. European operations also improved, with EBITDA rising to €6 million. However, the Americas segment saw a 54% drop in EBITDA to €11 million, reflecting ongoing regional cost pressures. Stainless steel deliveries rose 6% year-on-year to 470,000 tonnes, although realized prices declined across both regions.

Outlook improves, but geopolitical and cost risks persist

Despite a €15 million impact from a union strike in Finland, the Q1 cost hit was smaller than last year’s €30 million loss. Outokumpu expects stainless steel deliveries to grow by up to 10% in Q2, but a €10 million impact from scheduled ferrochrome maintenance is anticipated. The company also warned that global tariffs and geopolitical instability could affect future pricing and profitability. Still, Q2 adjusted EBITDA is projected to be equal to or higher than Q1.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu’s return to profitability reflects its operational agility in Europe and the strategic advantage of in-house ferrochrome supply. However, declining U.S. margins and external risks highlight the need for regional diversification and cost discipline in a volatile trade environment.

Outokumpu Issues Profit Warning Amid Stainless Steel Market Weakness

Outokumpu

Finland-based stainless steel producer Outokumpu has issued a profit warning, revising its guidance for the fourth quarter due to a combination of challenging market conditions, operational setbacks, and falling raw material prices. The company now anticipates its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for Q4 to be significantly below the €86 million ($90 million) recorded in the third quarter.

Outokumpu cited multiple factors contributing to the revision, including:

• Prolonged maintenance at its Tornio plant in Finland, which exceeded initial expectations of a €10 million impact.

• Weakened stainless steel market conditions, reflecting sluggish demand across the European value chain.

• Negative inventory valuation effects, driven by plummeting stainless steel and scrap prices.

The company hinted that Q4 adjusted EBITDA could approach breakeven levels or even turn negative due to these compounded challenges.

European Stainless Steel Market Pressures Intensify

The European stainless steel market is facing significant headwinds, with demand declining across the value chain. Falling raw material prices and broader economic uncertainties have exacerbated the situation. The Supermetalprice assessment for stainless steel 304 cold-rolled 2mm sheet delivered to northwest Europe has dropped nearly 15% since Q2, averaging €2,550/t. Similarly, stainless steel scrap 304 (18-8) solids cif Rotterdam has seen a sharp 21% decline, averaging €1,155/t.

Outokumpu’s stainless steel deliveries in Q4 are expected to decrease by 0-10% compared to Q3, with the company now expecting shipments to hit the lower end of the range. Total stainless steel shipments fell by 2.23% year-on-year to 459,000 tonnes in Q3, reflecting broader market stagnation.

These conditions have forced Outokumpu to reassess its operational strategies, while other producers in Europe are similarly reducing capacities to address supply and demand imbalances.

Looking Ahead

Outokumpu’s profit warning highlights the broader challenges facing the European stainless steel industry. Demand-side struggles, coupled with falling prices for raw materials and finished goods, are reshaping market dynamics. As Outokumpu navigates through these turbulent times, the focus will remain on mitigating operational inefficiencies while anticipating potential recovery in global demand for stainless steel.

Outokumpu Secures 10-Year Molybdenum Oxide Supply Deal from Greenland’s Malmbjerg Mine

Outokumpu

$1.6 Billion Offtake Agreement to Support EU Stainless Steel Production and Advance Arctic Mining Project

Outokumpu Moves to Secure Strategic Molybdenum Supply from Greenland

Outokumpu has signed a $1.6 billion, 10-year offtake deal to source molybdenum oxide (MoOx) from Greenland Resources' Malmbjerg project. The agreement ensures Finland-based Outokumpu receives 8 million pounds of MoOx annually, covering half of its global requirements. This volume represents 25% of the Malmbjerg mine’s projected output over the same period.

The long-term supply will directly support Outokumpu’s European stainless steel operations. Molybdenum enhances corrosion resistance in stainless alloys, making it essential for infrastructure, energy, and chemical industries.

Financing and Permitting: Malmbjerg Project Enters Key Development Phase

As part of the deal, Outokumpu will assist Greenland Resources in securing funding to move the $820 million mine into construction. While exact financing needs remain undisclosed, Export Development Canada issued a letter of interest for up to $275 million in February.

Greenland Resources still needs to obtain its final exploitation license before starting extraction. It received a draft permit earlier this year, and aims to unlock the mine’s full 20-year lifespan. The project contains 245 million tonnes of molybdenum disulfide ore at an average grade of 0.176%, expected to yield 571 million pounds of contained molybdenum.

Molybdenum Market Volatility Adds Urgency to Strategic Agreements

European prices for molybdenum oxide have dropped 14% since peaking in June 2024, with recent levels assessed at $20.65–$20.85/lb, according to SUPERMETALPRICE. This price volatility makes secure long-term sourcing vital for downstream users like Outokumpu.

The Malmbjerg project is one of the most advanced Arctic mining developments, and this deal underscores the EU’s growing interest in diversifying critical raw material supplies away from dominant producers like China and Chile.

Outokumpu Significantly Increases Chrome Ore Reserves at Kemi Mine

Outokumpu

Finnish ferrochrome producer Outokumpu has announced a substantial 95% increase in its estimated mineral reserves at the Kemi chrome ore mine. This significant expansion is attributed to recent successful underground drilling efforts.

Reserve Increase and Economic Impact

The proven mineral reserves at the Kemi mine have risen to approximately 62.5 million tonnes of chrome ore, a remarkable 30.4 million tonne increase from the previous estimate.  Outokumpu estimates that these reserves, if converted entirely into ferrochrome and sold at average prices from January to September 2024, could generate approximately $15.5 billion. This highlights the substantial economic value of the increased reserves.

Mine Expansion and Long-Term Outlook

Outokumpu's strategic expansion of the mine's depth from 500 meters to 1,000 meters between 2017 and 2023 has played a crucial role in boosting the reserve estimates.  This expansion has significantly extended the mine's operational lifespan, with current projections indicating the availability of chromium until the 2050s. 

This long-term outlook provides Outokumpu with a secure and stable supply of chrome ore, strengthening its position in the ferrochrome market.  The increased reserves not only benefit Outokumpu but also contribute to the stability of the global ferrochrome supply chain.

Outokumpu Halts US Expansion Amid Weak Demand and Rising Imports

Outokumpu

Finnish Stainless Steel Giant Shifts Focus to Productivity Gains in the Americas

Outokumpu, Finland’s largest stainless steel producer, has shelved its plans to expand cold-rolling capacity in the United States. The decision follows a 2023 feasibility study, which concluded that market uncertainty and increased import pressure render further investment unviable.

The company made this strategic pivot despite new US import tariffs of 25% on steel and select steel derivatives. While these measures aim to ease import pressures, Outokumpu believes current conditions remain too volatile for major capital spending. CEO Kati ter Horst cited doubling import penetration—mainly from Asia—into North America over the past five years as a major concern.

Strategic Shift Targets Organic Growth over Greenfield Expansion

Instead of building new facilities, Outokumpu will prioritize boosting output at existing American operations. The group already added 65,000 tonnes per year in 2024 and aims to reach an additional 80,000 t/yr increase through productivity upgrades by end-2025.

The firm will also monitor how the newly imposed tariffs impact steel imports, particularly from Asia. Any sustained drop in foreign inflows could prompt a reassessment of the expansion strategy. However, for now, cost discipline and efficiency remain the top priorities.

Declining Demand Hits Earnings and Shipment Volumes

Outokumpu reported a €3 million EBITDA loss in the fourth quarter, as stainless steel shipments dropped 6.2% year-on-year to 422,000 tonnes. Full-year shipments fell to 1.792 million tonnes, while annual earnings plunged 66% to €177 million.

The company attributed these declines to "historically low" European stainless steel demand and surging import volumes. Adjusted Q4 EBITDA in Europe dipped to a €32 million loss. Looking ahead, Outokumpu expects Q1 2025 deliveries to rise 10–20% but warns of continued pricing pressure due to weak demand.

Outokumpu Reports Decline in 2Q Steel Shipments and Revenues Amid European Market Challenges

Finland-based stainless steel producer Outokumpu has reported a significant decline in both steel shipments and revenues for the second quarter of 2024, as the company continues to grapple with a slow recovery in the European market, tight scrap metal supply, and the lingering effects of strike action in Finland earlier this year. Despite these challenges, the company experienced a year-on-year increase in shipments within the Americas sales region, providing some relief to the overall downturn.

During the April-June period, Outokumpu shipped 468,000 tonnes of stainless steel, representing a 6.8% decrease compared to the same period last year. The decline was more pronounced in Europe, where shipments fell by 9.77% year-on-year to 316,000 tonnes. However, the United States saw a nearly equivalent rise in shipments, totaling 161,000 tonnes.

Over the first half of 2024, Outokumpu's shipments declined by 9.5% to 912,000 tonnes, underscoring the challenges faced by the company. The second quarter saw distributor inventory levels in Europe remain low, largely due to limited supply stemming from strike actions at major production facilities. Interestingly, shipments in the January-March period had increased by 4%, a trend attributed to a slight easing in scrap metal sourcing during the second quarter.

Outokumpu's financial performance reflected these operational challenges. The company's adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the second quarter plunged by nearly 75% year-on-year to €56 million. The financial impact of the Finnish political strike was substantial, with a reported negative effect of approximately €30 million on the adjusted EBITDA, mirroring the impact seen in the first quarter.

For the first half of the year, adjusted EBITDA fell sharply to €94 million, marking a 76.14% decline compared to the same period in 2023.

The company's ferrochrome production also took a hit, decreasing by 34% year-on-year to 79,000 tonnes due to the strike and the temporary closure of one of its three ferrochrome furnaces in response to weak market demand. Nevertheless, deliveries of ferrochrome increased by 16% year-on-year, reaching 104,000 tonnes.

In January, Outokumpu temporarily shut down one of its three ferrochrome furnaces and one of its two sintering plants. The company expects ferrochrome production to operate at 80% of capacity until the autumn, as market fundamentals for ferrochrome showed significant improvement in the second quarter.

Looking ahead to the third quarter, Outokumpu anticipates that stainless steel deliveries will remain stable compared to the second quarter. While Europe's market recovery is expected to continue at a slow pace, the market environment in the Americas is forecasted to remain soft. Additionally, the scrap market is likely to stay tight, according to the company.

Outokumpu’s 3Q Results Mixed, Europe Weighs on Outlook

Outokumpu

Finnish stainless steel producer Outokumpu reported mixed results for the third quarter of 2023. While its Americas business unit performed strongly, the European market downturn weighed on overall performance.

Q3 Performance

• Shipments: Total stainless steel shipments declined by 2.23% year-over-year to 459,000 tonnes. European deliveries were particularly weak, falling 2% sequentially.
• Realised Prices: The company achieved higher realised prices in Europe but lower prices in the Americas. However, higher scrap prices offset the positive impact of realised prices.
• Costs: Costs increased due to salary inflation and maintenance work, partially offset by lower electricity and consumable prices.
• Adjusted EBITDA: Despite the challenges, adjusted EBITDA surged nearly 70% year-over-year to €86 million.

Year-to-Date Performance

• Shipments: Year-to-date stainless steel shipments decreased by 5.8% to 1.371 million tonnes, primarily driven by a weaker European market and a political strike in Finland.
• Regional Performance: European deliveries declined by 10% to 935,000 tonnes, while Americas deliveries increased by 8.77% to 459,000 tonnes.

Outlook

Outokumpu expects a challenging fourth quarter with a 0-10% decline in stainless steel deliveries compared to the third quarter. The European and American markets are expected to weaken further, and a planned maintenance break in Tornio will impact EBITDA. Additionally, rising energy costs in Europe will add further pressure.

Greenland Molybdenum Supply Deal with Cogne Targets European Steel Markets

Greenland

Greenland molybdenum supply deal negotiations advanced as Greenland Resources signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Italian specialty steel manufacturer Cogne Acciai Speciali. The potential Greenland molybdenum supply agreement covers ferro-molybdenum and molybdenum oxide sourced from the company's $820 million Malmbjerg project, positioning Greenland Resources to address European Union molybdenum supply security while building strategic partnerships across specialty steel manufacturing.

Malmbjerg Project Resources Support Long-Term Supply Commitments

Greenland molybdenum supply capabilities stem from substantial mineral reserves at the Malmbjerg project containing 245 million metric tonnes of molybdenum disulphide. The reserves maintain an average grade of 0.176% and are expected to yield 571 million pounds (259,000 tonnes) of contained molybdenum metal. These resource volumes position Malmbjerg to supply approximately 25% of European Union molybdenum demand.

Meanwhile, the project's strategic importance reflects the EU's position as the world's second-largest molybdenum consumer without domestic mining operations. This supply gap creates significant opportunities for Greenland Resources to establish long-term customer relationships with European manufacturers. The company also plans to market magnesium as a by-product, diversifying revenue streams while maximizing resource utilization efficiency.

Strategic Processing Partnership Enables Market Entry

However, the molybdenum supply chain requires sophisticated processing capabilities through Greenland Resources' tolling agreement with Molymet Belgium. The Belgian molybdenum converter will process concentrates from Malmbjerg into ferro-molybdenum and molybdenum oxide products suitable for specialty steel applications. This partnership arrangement provides access to established European processing infrastructure without requiring substantial capital investments.

Therefore, the Cogne agreement follows Greenland Resources' successful long-term contract with stainless steel producer Outokumpu for 8 million pounds annually of molybdenum oxide. The Outokumpu deal represents half of that company's annual molybdenum requirements, demonstrating market validation for Malmbjerg's production capacity. Multiple customer agreements reduce concentration risk while establishing predictable revenue foundations.

Government Approval Remains Critical for Project Development

Furthermore, Greenland Resources continues pursuing final exploitation license approval from the Greenland government following receipt of draft license revisions in April. Government approval represents the final regulatory hurdle before commencing mining activities at Malmbjerg. The licensing process reflects Greenland's careful approach to balancing resource development with environmental protection and community interests.

As a result, successful government approval would unlock substantial European molybdenum supply chain benefits while establishing Greenland as a strategic critical minerals producer. The project's scale and customer commitments demonstrate commercial viability that supports both Greenlandic economic development and European industrial supply security. Strategic partnerships with established processors and customers create integrated value chains from mining through end-use applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Greenland Resources' molybdenum supply agreements exemplify how emerging mining jurisdictions can address critical European industrial supply gaps through strategic partnerships and processing arrangements. The Malmbjerg project's potential to supply 25% of EU molybdenum demand represents a significant geopolitical shift toward Arctic resource development, particularly important as European manufacturers seek supply chain diversification away from traditional sources amid increasing trade tensions.

Magnesium Added to Greenland Resources License for Malmberg Project

Greenland Resources

Greenland Resources has confirmed that magnesium will be included in its draft exploration license for the Malmberg project in east-central Greenland. The updated scope expands the project’s strategic value beyond molybdenum, as the magnesium Greenland Resources license now aligns with critical mineral priorities in both the US and EU, where domestic magnesium production is absent.

The Greenland government verified magnesium’s presence in the Malmberg deposit, prompting regulators to recommend formal inclusion. The magnesium will be recovered as a byproduct of molybdenum extraction and may also be recovered from saline tailings water, according to Greenland Resources. This multi-source extraction strategy enhances the site’s economic and critical materials relevance.

Dual Critical Mineral Strategy Enhances Malmberg Project Value

The expanded magnesium Greenland Resources license adds new momentum to the Malmberg project, which is already positioned as a high-grade molybdenum source. In February 2025, Greenland Resources signed a 10-year, $1.6 billion offtake deal with Outokumpu, a Finland-based stainless steel producer, for molybdenum oxide. The addition of magnesium strengthens the project’s appeal to industrial buyers facing supply shortfalls.

Magnesium is widely used in lightweight alloys, defense applications, and battery systems, making it a key focus for strategic sourcing. The company’s plan to extract magnesium from both ore and tailings brine also reflects a growing industry trend toward zero-waste and water-integrated metallurgy.

US and EU Magnesium Dependence Highlights Strategic Importance

Neither the United States nor the European Union currently hosts domestic magnesium production, despite listing the metal as a critical raw material. The magnesium Greenland Resources license positions Greenland as a potential supplier to Western markets seeking non-Chinese sources of magnesium.

As supply chain resilience becomes central to industrial policy, Greenland’s geostrategic location and mineral endowment could play a more prominent role in EU and US critical mineral strategies. With permitting underway and magnesium officially recognized, Greenland Resources gains leverage in future financing, offtake, and export agreements.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Adding magnesium to the Greenland Resources license broadens the Malmberg project’s relevance in critical mineral geopolitics. In a supply environment dominated by China, even byproduct recovery from molybdenum mining becomes a strategic lever for Western industrial resilience.

European Stainless Steel Market Faces Mixed Trends Amid Price Stabilization

European stainless steel prices have recently stabilized, buoyed by projected supply constraints and unexpected demand spikes, yet the broader market remains under pressure.

Stabilization in Stainless Steel Prices

Over the past two weeks, European stainless steel prices have shown signs of stabilization, largely due to projected supply tightness following production cuts by Acerinox at its Acerinox Europa plant in Los Barrios, Cadiz, Spain, and a maintenance stoppage at Outokumpu's Finnish facility.

An unexpected increase in buyer interest in Germany led to slight price rises. However, the momentum is expected to fade as service centers delay purchases to next year amid persistent low demand across most regions.

Raw Material Insights: Stainless Steel Scrap and Ferro-Alloys

Stainless Steel Scrap

Despite low domestic demand, stainless steel scrap prices saw an unexpected boost last week, fueled by mounting export interest.

Ferro-Alloys

The ferro-molybdenum market has faced high price pressure, averaging $51.10/kg over the past month. Rising material costs and heightened Asian demand have driven prices up, challenging European producers who are focusing on lower-margin steels to sustain operations. Meanwhile, Indian ferro-chrome exports to Europe have contributed to excess supply, driving prices downward in early autumn.

Prices of high-carbon ferro-chrome (65% Cr) dropped by 8% in September, with further declines in October as producers in Kazakhstan and India slashed offers. However, with long-term contracts for 2024 expected to conclude shortly, a price rebound may be on the horizon.

Demand and Market Outlook

Demand for stainless steel and its raw materials remains subdued. Some European steelmakers may shut operations earlier for the winter due to low order volumes. This pessimistic outlook could prolong the market challenges for the remainder of 2024.

Prospech Boosts Hafnium and Niobium Exploration in Finland Amidst Strong Market

Prospech

Australian junior mining company, Prospech, is significantly expanding its Jokikangas rare earth and hafnium project in Finland.  This strategic move comes as the prices of hafnium and niobium remain elevated, driven by robust demand from key industrial sectors.  Prospech's focus on these critical metals positions them well to capitalize on favorable market conditions.

Expanding the Jokikangas Project

Prospech initially acquired the Jokikangas project in 2023, where they subsequently discovered high-grade deposits of both niobium and hafnium.  The company has now secured an additional 4,852 hectares, bringing the total project area to an impressive 7,062 hectares. This expansion underscores Prospech’s commitment to thoroughly exploring and developing the site’s potential.

Leveraging Historical Data and Resampling Core Samples

The Jokikangas site exhibits iron-hosted, zircon-rich zones containing hafnium, which Prospech has visually identified. While these zones have been defined, the drill core samples remain largely unsampled for hafnium and other valuable elements. Notably, the high-grade zone boasts concentrations exceeding 1.5% niobium, zirconium, and rare earth elements, extending down to a depth of 250 meters. Prospech will utilize existing archived drill hole data from previous exploration activities conducted by companies such as Outokumpu as far back as 1981.  Additionally, they will leverage core resampling work performed by the Finnish geological survey (GTK) in 2020.  By resampling these historically preserved drill cores, Prospech aims to comprehensively assess the project's overall resource potential and refine their understanding of the deposit's characteristics.

Niobium Market Dynamics

The niobium market is currently experiencing a period of strength, primarily fueled by increased demand from the aerospace and defense industries.  Coupled with reduced supply from Brazil, a major niobium producer, this demand has propelled a steady increase in niobium columbite prices over the past two years.  Market analysts predict that the demand from these critical sectors will continue to bolster the niobium market well into 2025. This positive market outlook further reinforces the strategic importance of Prospech’s expanded exploration efforts.