Comexport to assemble GM Chinese EVs in Brazil

Comexport

Comexport to assemble GM Chinese EVs marks a major shift in Brazil’s role within global EV supply chains. The Brazilian foreign trade firm will assemble GM’s new Spark EUV, a Chinese electric vehicle sold under the Chevrolet brand, at the former Ford-owned PACE industrial hub. As a result, the Comexport to assemble GM Chinese EVs deal turns a decommissioned plant into a regional platform for imported Chinese SKD units.

The project uses a flexible contract-assembly model rather than an equity partnership or joint venture. Comexport will import semi-knocked-down Spark units from China, already welded, painted and partially manufactured, and then complete final assembly at PACE. Meanwhile, GM will supervise production quality and pay Comexport per unit, ensuring OEM control over standards while limiting capital exposure. Therefore, the Comexport to assemble GM Chinese EVs contract gives GM fast market access with lower fixed costs.

PACE becomes Brazil’s first multi-brand EV assembly hub

PACE will emerge as Brazil’s first and only multi-brand vehicle assembly line once all client negotiations close. The plant, acquired by Comexport in 2024 from the state of Ceara, will serve at least three carmakers, with GM confirmed as the first anchor client. Initially, the facility will operate below its 80,000 vehicle per year capacity and gradually ramp up as the local supply chain matures.

GM plans for all Spark units sold in Brazil to be assembled as SKD imports over time. However, the company will first bring in fully built consumer-ready vehicles while Comexport stabilises processes and tooling. As the supply chain “nationalises”, more Brazilian auto-parts suppliers will enter the platform, supporting localisation targets and potentially unlocking tax and industrial policy incentives. This phased approach reduces ramp-up risk while anchoring long term EV manufacturing in northeastern Brazil.

Chinese EV platforms deepen their footprint in Latin America

The project highlights how Chinese EV platforms penetrate Latin America via global OEM brands and contract assemblers. The Spark is a Chinese-developed model from the joint venture between GM, SAIC and Wuling, sold domestically as the Baojun Yep Plus. Therefore, Brazilian consumers will buy a Chevrolet-badged vehicle that originates from a Chinese EV architecture. PACE will exclusively assemble hybrids and EVs, increasing the likelihood that future clients will also be Chinese or China-linked automakers.

For GM, this structure supports a broader strategy of leveraging Chinese small-EV know-how while maintaining brand control in key emerging markets. For Brazil, the Comexport to assemble GM Chinese EVs model could accelerate EV adoption, technology transfer and supplier upgrading, especially in battery, electronics and lightweight components. However, policymakers and local OEMs will also scrutinise the impact on domestic manufacturers and industrial competitiveness as Chinese-origin platforms gain share.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal illustrates how decommissioned legacy plants can be repurposed into EV assembly hubs bound into China-centric technology networks. By combining SKD imports, contract assembly and gradual localisation, Comexport and GM create a flexible template that other brands may copy across Latin America. Market participants should watch how quickly local suppliers move into higher value EV components and how Brazil balances openness to Chinese platforms with support for domestic champions.

Chinese EV LiDAR Chip Demand Surges on ADAS Race

EV LiDAR

Chinese EV LiDAR chip demand is accelerating as ADAS becomes a mainstream differentiator in China. Chinese EV LiDAR chip demand expanded with EVs exceeding half of new sales in 1H25. Therefore, Chinese EV LiDAR chip demand will keep rising as LiDAR extends beyond premium models. LiDAR, radar, and cameras now scale across mid-range vehicles. Premium 1,550nm systems lift semiconductor intensity per car. Meanwhile, 905nm GaAs units remain cost leaders for mass ADAS.

Materials Impact: Gallium, Indium, Germanium and InP

LiDAR growth raises near-term gallium needs through 905nm GaAs emitters. However, 1,550nm adoption pulls indium and phosphide demand via InGaAs and InP lasers. Germanium also gains in SiGe receivers and select SWIR optics. Silver telluride could appear in photodetectors, from a low base. As a result, upstream pricing power may shift to high-purity minor metals and epitaxial wafers. Apparent adoption reached 17% of Chinese EVs by June. Unit growth will compound material consumption through 2026.

Supply Chain and Capacity Ramp Inside China

RoboSense surpassed one million automotive LiDAR units by June. Hesai installed new lines and targets two million units a year by end-2025. The firm won designs on 20 models for 2026 launches. BYD will deploy God’s Eye ADAS across all new models. Two variants include LiDAR for wider feature access. Pony AI’s seventh-generation Robotaxi uses four Hesai AT128 sensors per car. Each unit integrates 128 VCSELs, using InP, GaAs, or GaN. GlobalFoundries reports 36% automotive growth and pursues “China for China.” That strategy supports local ADAS, laser drivers, and radar SoCs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

LiDAR’s shift from flagship to mainstream rewrites the automotive semiconductor bill. Watch 1,550nm penetration; it will set the slope for InP and InGaAs demand. Export permits and wafer capacity could become the hidden bottlenecks in 2026.

Latam EV Market Set for Massive 2025 Expansion Driven by Chinese Automakers

Latam EV Market

The Latam EV market will experience unprecedented growth in 2025 as electric vehicle sales in Latin America and emerging markets double to 1 million units. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Chinese automakers drive this expansion by offering significantly cheaper models than traditional Western brands. The Latam EV market surge represents a critical shift in global automotive demand that will substantially increase battery materials consumption across the region.

Chinese Battery Technology Advantages Fuel Market Penetration

Chinese automakers captured 75% of all EV sales in emerging economies by leveraging superior cost advantages in battery pack manufacturing. China produces cheaper battery packs due to intense competition, enhanced manufacturing efficiency, supply chain integration, and access to skilled workforces. Meanwhile, Chinese battery pack prices fell 30% compared to only 10-15% decreases in Europe and the United States.

BYD and GWM electric vehicles now compete directly with conventional petrol cars in key Latam EV market segments. In Brazil, BYD's largest market outside China, the price gap between battery electric cars and conventional vehicles narrowed to just 25%. Therefore, Chinese manufacturers achieve price parity with internal combustion engines in Thailand and approach competitive pricing across Latin America.

Regional Manufacturing Expansion Promises Further Cost Reductions

Local production capacity remains minimal, with only 5% of EVs sold in emerging markets produced regionally currently. GWM and BYD plan to establish factories in Latin America by late 2026, potentially driving down costs further. As a result, these manufacturing facilities will bypass import tariffs while reducing transportation costs for the expanding Latam EV market.

Regional battery material demand will surge as local EV production scales rapidly across Latin America. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, and other critical minerals consumption will increase substantially to support growing battery manufacturing requirements. However, Latin America possesses significant lithium reserves, particularly in Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, creating opportunities for vertical supply chain integration.

Global EV sales exceeded 17 million units in 2024, capturing 20% market share worldwide. The IEA projects 2025 sales will surpass 20 million units, representing over 25% of global automotive sales. Consequently, the Latam EV market expansion contributes meaningfully to this accelerating global electrification trend.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Latam EV market boom signals a fundamental shift in global battery materials demand geography, with Chinese manufacturers leveraging cost advantages to penetrate price-sensitive emerging markets. This expansion will create substantial new demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel while potentially enabling Latin America to capture more value from its abundant critical mineral resources through local processing and battery manufacturing integration.

Toyota Expands EV Operations in China and the US with New Facilities

Toyota

Toyota, a leading Japanese manufacturer, is setting up a new electric vehicle (EV)

production facility in Shanghai, China. The company aims to strengthen its presence in the growing Chinese EV market by delivering electric vehicles (EVs) and EV batteries to local customers. At the same time, it will begin shipping EV batteries from its newly established North Carolina facility in the United States. These moves are part of Toyota’s broader strategy to boost global EV production, aligning with its goal to sell 1.5 million EVs by 2026.

New Shanghai Facility: Focusing on EVs and Batteries

The new plant in Shanghai will focus on the production of EV batteries as well as the new Lexus brand EVs. Toyota plans to manufacture 100,000 EV units after 2027, though it has not disclosed whether this production will include batteries for models other than the Lexus EVs. Interestingly, Toyota has decided to set up the new Shanghai firm as a wholly-owned subsidiary, a rare move for foreign automobile manufacturers, who typically partner with local companies in China. This suggests that Toyota is committed to delivering new energy vehicles (NEVs) to Chinese customers rapidly, with a strong focus on the domestic market.

North Carolina Facility: EV Battery Production Ramp-Up

Toyota is also investing heavily in its North Carolina facility, which will start delivering EV batteries from April. This facility, with an investment of approximately $14 billion, will feature 10 production lines for batteries catering to EVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), alongside four production lines dedicated to hybrid vehicle batteries. While Toyota has not disclosed the specific production volume for its North Carolina plant, this significant investment underscores its commitment to becoming a major player in the global EV market.

Toyota's EV Sales Strategy and Challenges

Despite these expansions, Toyota's global EV sales remain sluggish, with the company revising its sales forecast downward for the 2024-25 fiscal year. The revised outlook predicts sales of 142,000 EVs and 154,000 PHEVs, which represents a decrease of 11% and 4.9%, respectively, compared to the previous forecast. Toyota’s decision to adjust its expectations for EV and PHEV sales marks two consecutive downward revisions, highlighting the challenges the company faces in meeting its EV targets. Nonetheless, the investments in China and the US represent critical steps in Toyota's ongoing efforts to accelerate its EV production and meet its 1.5 million EV sales goal by 2026.

China and EU Resume Electric Vehicle Talks Amid Growing US Tariff Pressures

US tariff, China

Negotiations on Price Commitments Could Ease Trade Friction in the EV Market

China and the European Union (EU) have decided to resume negotiations regarding a price commitment mechanism for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This decision follows the EU's implementation of countervailing duties on Chinese BEV imports in 2024. The goal of these talks is to replace the tariffs imposed on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), addressing ongoing trade tensions between China and the EU.

EU's Countervailing Duties and the Push for a Price Commitment Mechanism

In October 2024, the European Commission finalized its ruling on countervailing duties on BEVs imported from China, which came into effect at the end of October. These duties ranged from 17% to 35.3%, impacting major Chinese automakers like BYD, SAIC, and Geely. The aim was to counter what the EU viewed as unfair pricing practices by Chinese EV manufacturers. However, these tariffs have faced opposition from both China and European companies seeking to expand their market share in the fast-growing electric vehicle sector.

Despite early talks on a price commitment mechanism in November 2024, the discussions stalled without significant progress. However, on April 10, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that both sides had agreed to resume negotiations on the price commitments and to discuss broader issues of investment cooperation in the automotive industry.

US Tariffs Intensify the Pressure on China and the EU

The resumption of talks between China and the EU comes amidst escalating trade tensions with the United States. As of April 11, 2025, the US imposed a 145% tariff rate on imports from China, adding additional pressure on Chinese manufacturers, particularly in the electric vehicle and battery sectors. US President Donald Trump's tariffs, which were initially implemented in 2024, compounded by those under the Biden administration, have made it nearly impossible for Chinese EVs and lithium-ion batteries to enter the US market.

In an effort to counterbalance the US's growing tariff measures, China has been seeking closer economic ties with the EU. Chinese Premier Li Qiang held discussions with EU President Ursula von der Leyen on April 8, 2025, addressing the need for structural solutions to re-balance bilateral trade relations. The talks have emphasized the urgency of enhancing market access for European businesses in China and forging a collaborative approach to the challenges posed by US tariffs.

Potential Impact on the Electric Vehicle Market

If China and the EU reach an agreement on the price commitment mechanism, it could significantly alter the landscape for Chinese EVs in Europe. Prior to the implementation of the countervailing duties, the EU accounted for about 28% of China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) exports, which includes both BEVs and hybrid plug-in vehicles. However, the tariffs have drastically reduced Chinese EV exports to Europe.

The continuation of trade protectionist measures from both the US and the EU is putting immense pressure on China’s EV and battery markets, particularly as it struggles to enter key international markets. The future of Chinese electric vehicle exports largely hinges on these negotiations, and any breakthrough could bring Chinese-made EVs back into the competitive EU market.

Trump Hints at Scaling Back US EV Targets

In a striking address at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, US presidential candidate Donald Trump vowed to roll back the country's electric vehicle (EV) targets on his first day in office. "I will end the electric vehicle mandate on day one," Trump declared, "thereby saving the US auto industry from complete obliteration, which is happening right now."

While the US does not have an official EV mandate, it appears Trump was referencing the sales targets set by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Last April, the EPA proposed measures to combat pollution from diesel and petrol-powered vehicles, aiming for a 60% market share for light-duty battery EV (BEV) sales by 2030, rising to 67% by 2032.

However, in March, the EPA revised its market share forecast for BEV sales to 56% from 67% by 2032, with plug-in hybrid EVs filling the projected sales gap. Trump also voiced concerns about the growing presence of Chinese EV manufacturers. He pointed out that the US EPA's targets have faced resistance from individual states, which can impose their own conflicting targets.

"Right now, as we speak, large factories are being built across the border in Mexico … they are being built by China to make cars and sell them in our country," Trump added, highlighting the threat posed by Chinese EV makers establishing factories abroad. "We're going to put a 100% tariff on every single [Chinese] car that comes across the line, and you're not going to be able to sell them," Trump stated on March 16.

The Biden administration recently announced tariff increases up to 102.5% on Chinese-made EVs, up from the 27.5% duties set by the Trump administration.

China's largest EV maker, BYD, has announced investments in EV production in Hungary, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Morocco, India, Turkey, Vietnam, and Cambodia, with a combined production capacity of over 1 million EVs per year.

Volkswagen's Cost-Cutting Measures Amid Chinese EV Competition

IG Metall

Volkswagen (VW), Germany’s largest carmaker, is negotiating cost-cutting measures with IG Metall, the metalworkers' union, to combat the increasing pressure from Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers. VW has agreed to reduce workers’ wages by 10%, a step aimed at addressing declining market share in key regions, particularly China.

Rising Challenges in the EV Market

The cost-cutting comes as VW faces declining global sales and capacity utilization. In the third quarter of this year, VW reported global deliveries of 2.17 million vehicles, a 7.1% year-on-year decline. The company’s factory utilization rate also dropped to 69%, compared to 79% in 2019. German car factories overall are performing worse, with utilization rates at just 56%, down from 70% in 2019, partly due to sluggish economic growth.

In Germany, EV sales have plummeted following the removal of a €4,500 government subsidy for EV purchases in December 2022. Despite the challenges, VW’s Emden plant is set to transition exclusively to battery-electric vehicles by next year, with production targets of 190,000 units for the ID.4 and ID.7 models.

Chinese Competition and Global Impact

The biggest threat to VW's market position is the rise of Chinese carmakers. Chinese manufacturers have aggressively gained market share in the EV sector, climbing from 36% in 2020 to 63% in the first half of 2023, according to Automobility Media. This competition has led to a steady decline in VW’s sales in China, dropping from 3 million units in 2018 to 2.1 million units in the first nine months of 2023.

VW’s post-pandemic struggles are reflected in its September announcement to close two underperforming plants, which contributed to a forecasted sales shortfall of 500,000 units annually. The ongoing negotiations with IG Metall focus not just on pay cuts but also on issues such as temporary work and worker training, with a meeting scheduled for November 21.

Strategic Adjustments for the Future

While cost-cutting measures are a short-term strategy, VW is also making long-term adjustments to stay competitive. The company plans to ramp up its EV production, betting on models like the ID.4 and ID.7 to strengthen its presence in the global EV market. However, with Chinese carmakers continuing to dominate both domestically and internationally, VW’s ability to innovate and streamline operations will be crucial to maintaining its position as a global automotive leader.

US New Tariffs Could Disrupt China's Non-Exempt Metals Exports

China Tariffs

New tariffs on lithium, rare earth magnets, and more could affect China's metal exports to the US.

The United States has announced significant new tariffs on Chinese imports, with a notable focus on metals. While many non-ferrous metals and ferro-alloys have been exempted, some crucial exports from China, like lithium, rare earth magnets, and lithium-ion batteries, will face substantial increases in tariff rates. These changes are set to have a lasting impact on the trade between the US and China, especially in the energy storage and electric vehicle (EV) sectors.

High Tariffs on Lithium-Ion Batteries and Energy Storage

As of April 9, the US will implement an 82.4% tariff on electric vehicle (EV) power batteries and a 57.4% tariff on non-EV lithium-ion batteries from China. This substantial hike in tariffs will make Chinese-made batteries far more expensive and may eliminate the possibility of Chinese EV power batteries entering the US market. US consumers will likely absorb these costs, potentially leading to inflation in the US battery industry, especially in the energy storage sector.

China’s lithium-ion battery exports to the US had already been on the rise, with a 59% increase in exports during the first two months of the year. However, these new tariffs are expected to curb the growth of China's battery exports to the US and negatively affect lithium feedstock prices, which are currently at a four-year low.

Impact on Rare Earth Magnets

Rare earth magnets are another key area of concern, as these products were not exempted from the new tariffs. Despite some uncertainty about the exact tariff implementation, producers in China are anxious about the potential 54% tariff on rare earth magnets. China remains the dominant supplier of rare earth magnets globally, and while the US does have some alternatives, they are mostly focused on military applications with significantly higher prices. This makes it unlikely that the US can fully escape its dependence on China, especially for civilian applications.

China’s exports of rare earth magnets to the US in 2022 accounted for 12% of its total exports, and while tariffs could reduce this figure, China’s competitive pricing in the civil sector ensures its continued dominance in the global market.

Copper, Aluminium, and Hafnium: Other Affected Metals

While copper and aluminium are exempt from this latest round of tariffs, the copper industry remains on edge. US authorities are investigating the potential security implications of copper imports, and there’s speculation that a tariff may be imposed in the future. As for aluminium, Chinese exports are already subject to a steep 70% tariff, which is expected to discourage further aluminium exports to the US, pushing Chinese suppliers to seek alternative markets.

Hafnium, a critical metal used in aerospace applications, will also face a significant tariff hike, moving from 34% to 79%. This change could prompt US buyers to source hafnium from other regions, like Rotterdam, where the tariff is considerably lower.

Conclusion

The new US tariffs on Chinese metals exports are set to reshape the global metals market, particularly for lithium-ion batteries, rare earth magnets, and hafnium. While some sectors, like copper and aluminium, may have avoided immediate tariff hikes, long-term implications for the industry remain uncertain. The tariff increase on key metal exports from China to the US is expected to alter supply chains and increase costs for US consumers, especially in the EV and energy storage markets.

EU 2035 combustion engine phase-out target faces united EV industry push

EV

The EU 2035 combustion engine phase-out target is now defended by Europe’s leading EV manufacturers. Over 150 e-mobility firms urge Brussels to stand firm and protect the zero-emission deadline. Therefore the EU 2035 combustion engine phase-out target has become a symbol of industrial credibility and climate ambition.

Industry leaders argue that policy stability underpins Europe’s EV investment, jobs and charging infrastructure expansion. They highlight hundreds of billions of euros already committed across the electric vehicle value chain. As a result, they warn that political backtracking would undermine investor confidence and weaken Europe’s green industrial strategy.

Investment, jobs and the EU 2035 combustion engine phase-out target

The EU 2035 combustion engine phase-out target gives manufacturers a clear roadmap for capital deployment. Signatories point to over 150,000 new jobs created in gigafactories, retooled car plants and charging networks. Meanwhile, they stress that skills, grid resilience and supply chains already adapt to this long-term regulatory signal.

These commitments stretch from battery gigafactories in France and Germany to upgraded plants in Slovakia and Belgium. Therefore any delay to the EU 2035 combustion engine phase-out target would freeze project pipelines and defer hiring plans. The letter argues that such hesitation would reward more aggressive global competitors, particularly Chinese EV and battery makers.

Policy flexibility, global competition and EV demand momentum

The European Commission has already proposed short term flexibility on CO2 targets between 2025 and 2027. However, climate officials insist that the 2035 zero-emission goal for new cars and vans remains intact. This combination seeks to ease the transition while preserving long term certainty for investors and suppliers.

Market data shows that electric mobility continues to expand despite policy debate. Battery electric vehicle registrations in Europe rose by 34pc year on year in early 2025. As a result, industry leaders argue that weakening the trajectory now would waste hard won demand momentum.

The letter further warns that relaxing the deadline would “permanently hand the advantage” to global rivals. Europe’s EV champions see the 2035 target as a competitive anchor against heavily supported Chinese manufacturers. Therefore, they urge Brussels to pair regulatory certainty with bolder support for localized batteries, components and charging infrastructure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The industry’s defence of the EU 2035 combustion engine phase-out target highlights how deeply capital is now locked into electrification. For metals, batteries and charging players, regulatory wobble is a larger risk than short term demand volatility. If the EU holds course while sharpening implementation tools, Europe can still shape the global EV race rather than react to it.

Chinese Cobalt Prices Expected to Decline Further in 2025 Amid Rising Supply and Weak Demand

Chinese Cobalt Manufacturing

Oversupply and Weak Demand to Push Cobalt Prices Lower

The Chinese cobalt market is set to experience further price declines in 2025, as increasing nickel and copper production, from which cobalt is a by-product, leads to an oversupply that buyers are struggling to absorb.

Currently, Chinese-origin cobalt metal traded in Europe has already seen significant pressure due to a lack of floor pricing on raw materials, a trend expected to persist into the new year. Market insiders suggest that cobalt prices could drop below $9/lb, as fully integrated Chinese producers view cobalt as a credit to their primary metal production, particularly nickel and copper.

For these refiners, cobalt is a secondary concern. As one trading firm explained, some Chinese producers operate with production costs as low as $4,000 per ton while selling at $9,000 per ton. Even if they incur a $50 million loss on cobalt, they may still profit significantly from copper production, which can generate up to $700 million in gains.

Chinese Refiners Likely to Continue Production at a Loss

Unlike non-Chinese refiners, which may curtail supply if cobalt prices fall below $9/lb, some Chinese integrated mining firms and refiners could continue refining hydroxide into metal at a loss-making $7-8/lb.

While there is speculation that some Chinese metal producers may attempt to negotiate floor prices in their contracts, it remains uncertain whether these efforts will succeed. Market participants are closely watching how these negotiations unfold, as they could provide some level of price support if successful.

Global Nickel and Copper Growth to Sustain Cobalt Oversupply

The primary factor driving cobalt’s oversupply is the continued expansion of nickel and copper production, as cobalt is a by-product of both metals.

• Nickel production is set to rise again in 2025 with the launch of new Class 1 nickel refineries in China and Indonesia. This will likely keep London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month official nickel prices within the $15,000-17,000 per ton range, significantly lower than the $30,000 per ton peak in early 2023.

• Copper production is also projected to increase due to expansions at mines such as Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Although cobalt sales represent only a minor portion of copper mining revenues, producers still aim to extract value from it as a credit.

Weakened Demand from EV and Chemicals Sectors Further Pressures Prices

While cobalt demand in China has surged by 40%, this has not been enough to counteract weakening demand in other regions, particularly in Europe:

• The electric vehicle (EV) sector in Europe has slowed down, leading to reduced demand for cathode active materials like cobalt.

• The European chemicals industry, particularly in Germany, has struggled due to rising energy costs and broader economic challenges.

Even if prices do increase, China has ample spare refining capacity and could use third-party tolling arrangements to process hydroxide into metal, further maintaining downward price pressure.

Peak Oversupply May Be Near, But Price Recovery Remains Uncertain

Some market participants believe that cobalt hydroxide oversupply may have already peaked. The shift towards lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which do not use cobalt, has significantly impacted the demand for nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery chemistries, leading to lower demand for cobalt sulfate and cobalt hydroxide.

However, despite this potential supply peak, weak demand across key industrial sectors suggests that cobalt prices are unlikely to see a strong recovery in the near term.

Conclusion

In 2025, Chinese cobalt prices are expected to remain under pressure due to rising nickel and copper production, ongoing oversupply, and weak demand from the European EV and chemicals sectors. While some believe that the cobalt market may be nearing peak oversupply, prices are unlikely to experience significant upward momentum unless demand rebounds sharply or supply reductions occur.

US Tariffs on Chinese Lithium-Ion Batteries Set to Reach 82.4%

Chinese Lithium-Ion Batteries

New Tariff Policy to Significantly Impact the EV Battery Market

US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff policies will result in a substantial increase in the import tariff on batteries from China, with lithium-ion batteries facing a sharp rise to 82.4%. This change, effective April 5, 2025, is set to impact the importation of both electric vehicle (EV) and non-EV lithium-ion batteries, a move likely to affect various industries reliant on these energy storage systems.

The Impact of the 82.4% Tariff on Lithium-Ion Batteries

The new tariff structure applies a 34% reciprocal tariff on Chinese imports, pushing the total tariff on lithium-ion EV batteries to 82.4%. Non-EV batteries will face a lower, but still substantial, tariff of 64.9% until January 2026, when it will rise to 82.4%. The new rates will affect not only the electric vehicle industry but also energy storage and consumer electronics, which rely heavily on lithium-ion battery technology.

This sharp tariff increase is a part of broader trade policies aimed at countering China’s trade practices, and it will likely influence the cost of batteries across multiple sectors, leading to higher prices for consumers and manufacturers alike.

Additional Tariffs and the Section 301 Plan

The 82.4% tariff on lithium-ion batteries includes several layers of duties already in place. These include the existing 3.4% duty imposed by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, as well as two separate 10% tariffs on Chinese products implemented since Trump’s administration began. Moreover, current Section 301 tariffs on lithium-ion EV batteries are set at 25%, while non-EV batteries are taxed at 7.5%. These tariffs are part of the broader US strategy to address concerns about intellectual property and trade imbalances.

The Biden administration's plan to raise the Section 301 tariff on non-EV batteries to 25% by January 2026 reflects the long-term trade policy direction for China-US relations.

Ex-China Rare Earth Demand to Stay Weak Amid Economic Headwinds and EV Industry Struggles

China Rare Earth

Global demand for rare earth elements (REEs) outside of China is expected to remain subdued in the coming months, as macroeconomic challenges and sluggish industrial activity continue to weigh on end-user sectors. The rare earth market, which plays a crucial role in electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy, and high-tech manufacturing, has seen only modest demand growth in 2024, with contract negotiations for 2025 suggesting little change ahead.

Muted Demand Growth for Rare Earths in 2025

Market sources across the Atlantic region and Japan report that rare earth consumption has remained steady but unimpressive, with purchasing volumes under discussion for 2025 aligning closely with 2024 levels. Industries that rely on rare earths—including catalysts, phosphors, ceramics, and glassmaking—are waiting for an industrial revival to drive greater demand.

While the automotive magnetics sector has shown signs of recovery, the broader ex-China automotive industry continues to struggle. The weak performance of EV manufacturers outside of China has been a key factor limiting rare earth demand, particularly for neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), and dysprosium (Dy), which are essential in permanent magnets used in EV motors.

"We don’t see much change in demand next year," said a market participant. "We are expecting similar volumes under supply contracts for most industries and are actively seeking new applications for rare earth materials to offset the weak market conditions."

Inventory Caution Amid Geopolitical and Shipping Disruptions

Another major concern heading into 2025 is inventory management, as companies work to maintain stable supply chains while avoiding overstocking. With high interest rates and tight margins, international trading firms remain cautious about restocking and taking on new commitments.

"We are still being careful about restocking," said a trader. "It looks like rare earth prices might stay low next year, so the margins are narrow."

Further complicating supply chains, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea have extended lead times for Chinese rare earth shipments to up to 12 weeks this year. While container freight rates have softened since their summer peak, they started rising again in late 2024 as businesses rushed to complete shipments ahead of a potential strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) in North America.

US Tariffs on Chinese Magnets Could Reshape Market

Looking further ahead, the US' planned 25% tariff on Chinese permanent magnets, set to take effect in 2026, is another factor that could reshape the rare earth market. The move has been welcomed by some companies as a way to level the playing field and support new US-based permanent magnet production, but its actual impact remains uncertain.

The US magnetics industry has taken small steps toward securing domestic supply chains, occasionally sourcing ferro-gadolinium and ferro-dysprosium from the spot market. However, with domestic magnet production still in its early stages, US demand for Chinese rare earth oxides, metals, and alloys remains high. Even when the tariff is implemented, industry experts warn that it may not be enough to significantly reduce reliance on Chinese magnets, as non-China-produced magnets typically command a price premium well above 25%.

Potential Trade War Escalation Under Trump Administration

Adding further uncertainty is president-elect Donald Trump’s proposed 60-200% tariffs on all Chinese imports, which could be implemented after his inauguration in January. While most analysts expect rare earth materials to be excluded due to US dependence on China, heightened geopolitical tensions and the increasing focus on critical minerals could lead to unexpected policy shifts.

As 2025 approaches, market participants remain watchful of potential developments in US-China trade relations, as any changes could significantly impact global rare earth supply and pricing dynamics.

Conclusion

Despite some recovery in automotive magnetics, overall rare earth demand outside China is expected to remain weak in 2025 due to macroeconomic headwinds, EV industry struggles, and cautious inventory management. The US' planned tariffs on Chinese magnets could reshape long-term supply chains but are unlikely to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths in the near term. Meanwhile, trade policy uncertainties under the Trump administration add another layer of unpredictability for rare earth markets going forward.

China's EV Producers Sustain Sales Growth in 2024

China's EV

Most Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers managed to maintain sales growth from January through August. However, this growth has been slower compared to the period between January and July, as indicated by recent company reports.

Government Incentives Drive NEV Adoption

The Chinese government continues to support the adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs) through various incentives. Notably, Beijing's local government is offering a 15,000 yuan ($2,111) subsidy from September to December to encourage residents to replace their old vehicles with NEVs. This move aims to boost the city's NEV sales and support the broader national initiative for cleaner transportation.

Seres, in partnership with Huawei for software support, has reported the highest growth among domestic manufacturers for August and the year-to-date period. Xiaomi, traditionally known for its mobile phones, has also made significant strides, selling over 10,000 NEVs for the third consecutive month in August. This performance suggests that Xiaomi could meet its annual sales target of 100,000 units well ahead of schedule, potentially by November.

Future Market Dynamics

The competitive landscape for Chinese EV manufacturers is expected to remain highly competitive in the upcoming months. Concerns about oversupply and geopolitical restrictions may prompt more Chinese auto manufacturers to explore international markets as they seek to expand their presence beyond domestic borders.

China's BYD Begins EV Production in Uzbekistan

China's top electric vehicle (EV) maker, BYD, has officially kicked off EV production in Uzbekistan through a joint venture. Back in December 2022, BYD teamed up with Uzbekistan's Uzavtosanoat JSC (UzAuto) to cater to the rising demand for EVs in Central Asia. The first phase of production aims to roll out 50,000 units annually, focusing on BYD's Song Plus DM-i and Destroyer 05 hybrid plug-in EVs. Specific details about future development phases haven't been revealed yet.

Located in Jizzakh state in eastern Uzbekistan, the plant produced its first BYD Song Plus DM-i vehicle on June 27. This event marks the beginning of mass production at the facility and is expected to significantly boost vehicle electrification in the country, said BYD chairman Wang Chuanfu.

BYD has also signed a green transportation cooperation initiative with the Uzbek government to promote the country's EV development. The company began selling EVs in Uzbekistan in March 2023.

Chinese EV makers, including BYD, have been ramping up their global expansions to manage potential oversupply and address geopolitical challenges from the US and Europe. BYD has invested in EV production in Hungary, Thailand, Brazil, Morocco, India, and Vietnam, with a total planned capacity of around 1 million units per year.

Since 2022, BYD has been the world's largest producer of new energy vehicles (NEVs), manufacturing 1.29 million NEVs from January to May, a 26% increase compared to the previous year. During the same period, sales rose by 27% to 1.27 million units. In 2023, BYD's NEV sales surged to 3.024 million units, up 62% from the previous year. The company is also a leading EV exporter in China, with over 176,000 units shipped from January to May.

China Challenges EU's EV Tariffs at WTO

In a significant escalation of trade tensions, China has filed a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the European Union's (EU) imposition of provisional anti-subsidy duties on imports of Chinese battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Beijing argues that the EU's actions lack a solid factual and legal foundation and violate WTO rules, potentially undermining global efforts to combat climate change.

A spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce expressed strong dissatisfaction with the EU's decision, urging immediate rectification. "The EU's preliminary ruling is baseless and disrupts the stability of China-EU economic and trade relations, as well as the supply chain of electric vehicles," the spokesperson said.

The European Commission had imposed these additional duties on July 5th, targeting three major Chinese EV manufacturers. BYD, Geely, and SAIC faced new tariffs of 17.4%, 19.9%, and 37.6%, respectively. The duty on SAIC, China’s largest automaker, was slightly reduced from an initial 38.1%. The final determination on these duties, which could last for five years, will be made by EU member states.

SAIC, a key player in the EV market, with significant exports to the UK, France, Germany, and Spain, has formally requested a hearing on these temporary countervailing duties. The Chinese government also called for expedited consultations with the EU to reach a mutually agreeable solution.

China, which accounted for 59% of global BEV sales in the first half of the year, sees this move as detrimental not only to its economic interests but also to the broader goal of global climate cooperation. Meanwhile, Europe’s EV market growth has slowed significantly, largely due to the reduction of fiscal subsidies, slow progress in building charging infrastructure, and broader economic challenges.

Leapmotor Flex-Fuel REEV Targets Brazil’s Ethanol-Based EV Market

Leapmotor

Leapmotor flex-fuel REEV development in Brazil marks a new attempt to adapt electric vehicle technology to local fuel economics. The Chinese automaker will develop what it describes as the world’s first flex-fuel range-extended electric vehicle, capable of using both gasoline and ethanol.

The project reflects Brazil’s unusual position in global mobility. The country has a large flex-fuel fleet, broad ethanol availability, and a consumer base that often chooses fuel based on pump economics.

Leapmotor flex-fuel REEV technology will be integrated into the C10 model, currently the only range-extended electric vehicle marketed in Brazil. The existing C10 uses a gasoline-powered internal combustion engine as a range extender, but the new version will be tailored to Brazil’s ethanol-heavy market.

Brazil’s Ethanol Market Changes the REEV Value Proposition

REEVs are driven only by electric motors. Their batteries can be charged externally or supported by an internal combustion engine that works only as a generator, extending driving range without directly powering the wheels.

In most markets, the range extender uses gasoline. In Brazil, however, ethanol changes the economics because sugarcane-based ethanol is widely available and often cheaper than gasoline.

That gives the Leapmotor flex-fuel REEV a more localized cost advantage. Drivers could benefit from electric propulsion while using ethanol to extend range when charging access or travel distance becomes a concern.

Brazil already uses hydrous ethanol as a standalone fuel and gasoline blended with 30% anhydrous ethanol. This makes flex-fuel technology familiar to consumers and gives Chinese automakers a clear route to adapt electrified vehicles to local driving habits.

Chinese Automakers Localize Electrification Through Stellantis

Leapmotor’s plan follows a wider trend among Chinese automakers entering Brazil with localized hybrid and electric technologies. BYD and GWM have also been developing flex-fuel plug-in hybrid vehicles for the market.

Leapmotor’s international expansion is supported by Stellantis, which gives the Chinese brand a manufacturing and market access platform outside China. Stellantis said the C10 and the all-electric B10 will be produced at its factory in Pernambuco, in northeastern Brazil.

This production plan matters because Brazil’s EV market is still shaped by price, charging infrastructure, fuel availability, and local manufacturing policy. A flex-fuel REEV could reduce range anxiety while maintaining the operating-cost advantage that supports electrified vehicle adoption.

For the materials supply chain, the model still supports demand for batteries, copper, aluminium, power electronics, electric motors, and related components. However, it also shows that electrification pathways may differ by market rather than following a single global battery-only route.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Leapmotor’s Brazil strategy shows that electrification will not look the same in every market. In countries with strong biofuel infrastructure, flex-fuel range extenders could become a bridge between EV adoption, local fuel economics, and battery supply constraints.

Trade Tensions Derail BYD’s Mexico EV Plant Plan

BYD

Sheinbaum confirms no formal investment; U.S. tariffs undermine Chinese automakers’ North American strategy

BYD Faces Setback Amid Growing US-Mexico Trade Pressure

BYD’s plan to build a major EV manufacturing plant in Mexico appears to be falling apart due to escalating trade tensions. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed this week that BYD never made a formal investment commitment. This comes amid U.S. concerns that Chinese automakers are using Mexico to circumvent 100% tariffs on Chinese-made cars.

Sheinbaum emphasized that Mexico's trade priorities lie firmly within the USMCA framework and its alliance with the U.S. and Canada. “As we've said, you can invest in Mexico, but we take our trade commitments into consideration,” she said.

BYD’s Mexican Market Claim Met With Skepticism

In 2023, BYD expressed interest in building a plant to produce 150,000 cars annually and generate 10,000 jobs. As recently as mid-2024, it planned to announce a location by the end of the year. However, trade analysts had long cast doubt on the project’s viability, citing the U.S. tariff wall.

BYD executives insisted the plant would serve Mexico’s domestic market, not the U.S.

Still, industry experts like Herrera noted the project had little chance of bypassing U.S. protectionist measures. The situation reflects how geopolitics increasingly affects EV supply chain strategies across North America.

The Metalnomist Commentary

BYD’s withdrawal from Mexico marks a growing friction point between China’s EV ambitions and America’s industrial policy. For Mexico, balancing between Chinese investment and USMCA loyalty will define its strategic value in the clean-tech era.

As the global EV race intensifies, regulatory alignment and tariff policy may matter just as much as technology and capital.

Lopal LFP supply deal with CATL underpins global battery expansion

Lopal

The Lopal LFP supply deal with CATL marks a major step in China’s global battery materials strategy. Under the agreement, Jiangsu Lopal will supply 157,500t of LFP cathode material to CATL’s overseas plants from 2025 to 2031. As a result, the Lopal LFP supply deal with CATL secures long term CAM supply for CATL’s international gigafactories and EV customers.

Global significance of the Lopal LFP supply deal with CATL

The Lopal LFP supply deal with CATL is valued at more than 6bn yuan, highlighting its strategic weight. The contract will feed CATL’s overseas battery factories, supporting EV and energy storage growth outside China. Therefore, CATL locks in a predictable stream of LFP CAM while scaling its non Chinese manufacturing footprint.

LFP is gaining share in global batteries because it offers lower cost and strong safety performance. However, reliable cathode supply remains crucial as more OEMs shift from nickel rich chemistries. The Lopal LFP supply deal with CATL supports this trend by linking a leading LFP producer to the world’s largest cell maker.

Lopal has grown rapidly since acquiring BTR’s LFP business in 2021. Its output reached 184,697t in 2024, up 56pc year on year. Meanwhile, LFP sales rose 65pc to 178,287t, confirming strong downstream demand. This growth gives CATL confidence in Lopal’s ability to deliver under a long dated contract.

Lopal’s internationalisation push and new LFP capacity

The CATL agreement sits at the centre of Lopal’s internationalisation strategy. Lopal already holds term contracts with Cornex, Ford and LG Energy Solution. Therefore, the company is building a diversified global customer base across Chinese and foreign cell makers and OEMs.

Lopal’s production network spans several Chinese provinces, supporting scale and logistics flexibility. Major bases operate in Jiangsu, Shandong, Tianjin, Sichuan and Hubei. This footprint helps balance regional feedstock, power and permitting conditions. It also spreads risk as domestic competition in LFP intensifies.

Internationally, Lopal is building new capacity in Indonesia to support regional demand and localisation policies. The company has completed a 30,000 t/yr LFP phase there and is constructing a 90,000 t/yr second phase. It aims to finish this expansion by the end of 2025, creating a 120,000 t/yr Indonesian hub. This timing aligns with the ramp up of CATL and other Asian players across Southeast Asia.

The Lopal LFP supply deal with CATL will likely leverage both Chinese and Indonesian output over time. As a result, Lopal can optimise feedstock sourcing, shipping routes and tariff exposure. This flexibility matters as trade rules and battery content regulations evolve in the US, Europe and key emerging markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal underscores how LFP chemistry and Chinese CAM producers are locking in long term roles in global EV supply chains. By pairing fast growing Indonesian capacity with deep Chinese experience, Lopal becomes a more systemically important supplier to CATL and other majors. Market participants should watch how pricing formulas, regional sourcing splits and future offtake deals evolve, as these will shape LFP cost curves outside China.

Tesla Faces Stiff Competition as Sales Dip Amid Chinese Market Pressure

Tesla

In a competitive turn of events, U.S. electric vehicle (EV) giant Tesla reported a slight decline in its 2024 sales, down by 1% from the previous year, marking the first annual drop in sales in over a decade. The downturn is attributed to the rise of low-cost Chinese EV manufacturers, which are beginning to eclipse Tesla's older models with more affordable and innovative alternatives.

Competitive Dynamics and Market Shifts

Tesla's slight decrease in sales to 1.79 million units barely managed to outpace Chinese rival BYD, which reported 1.76 million battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales. Including plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), BYD's total climbed to 4.3 million units, emphasizing the intense competition in a market that has been crucial for Tesla. The firm responded to this rising competition by cutting prices multiple times throughout the year, despite facing new challenges like the European Union's tariffs on Chinese-made EVs. Notably, Tesla secured a bespoke duty discount of 9%, mitigating some of the financial impacts.

Production Hurdles and Strategic Adjustments

Despite optimistic forecasts by CEO Elon Musk for a 50% annual sales growth, Tesla announced a 10% workforce reduction following a dip in quarterly sales—the first in nearly four years. Production also took a hit, decreasing by 3.9% to 1.77 million EVs in 2024, affected by scaled-back production of models 3 and Y. However, the fourth quarter showed some recovery with a record 495,570 EV deliveries, thanks in part to a shift in production to an updated version of the Model 3.

Regulatory Challenges Ahead

The landscape could grow even more challenging for Tesla in 2025 with the upcoming administration under President-elect Trump proposing a 25% tariff on all imported goods from Mexico and Canada. Given that approximately 20% of Tesla's parts are sourced from Mexico, these tariffs could significantly affect the firm's production strategy and cost structure.

China’s Gotion Predicts LFP Batteries Will Dominate Global EV Market

Gotion High-Tech

Chinese battery producer Gotion High-Tech forecasts that lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) and lithium-manganese-iron-phosphate (LMFP) batteries will claim up to 70% of the global electric vehicle (EV) battery market in the next 2-5 years. Speaking at the ASEAN Battery Technology Conference in Singapore, Gotion’s Asia-Pacific president Cheng Qian highlighted the rising prominence of LFP chemistry, particularly in affordable EVs and energy storage systems.

The Rise of LFP Batteries

Qian projected that LFP batteries will dominate not only the global EV market but also the entire energy storage system (ESS) sector, exceeding even the IEA’s 80% forecast. He attributed this growth to advancements in LFP battery range and faster charging times, catering to the needs of everyday EV consumers. In contrast, nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries are expected to remain essential only for high-performance and long-range EVs.

This shift has placed pressure on the nickel market, as manufacturers pivot to cost-efficient LFP solutions. South Korean giants such as Samsung SDI and SK On are preparing to mass-produce LFP batteries by 2026. Meanwhile, LG Energy Solution (LGES) has committed to supplying 39GWh of LFP batteries to Renault's EV division Ampere, underscoring Europe’s growing focus on LFP technology.

Two-Wheeler EV Transition in Asia-Pacific

The two-wheeler EV market, particularly in Asia-Pacific, is also expected to transition from NCM to LFP batteries. India, Indonesia, and the Philippines are leading this shift due to cost concerns and government initiatives.

• India: Achieved record EV sales in FY2023-24, with two-wheeler EV sales rising 30% year-on-year to 944,126 units.
• Indonesia: Aims for 2 million electric motorcycles by 2025, supported by a $458 million subsidy program launched in March 2023.
• Philippines: Targets a 50% electric motorcycle and tricycle share by 2030, with cost efficiency driving adoption.

A Global Shift in Battery Technology

With its affordability and sustainability, LFP battery technology is reshaping the global EV landscape, especially in cost-sensitive markets. Companies like Gotion, LGES, and Samsung SDI are at the forefront of this transformation, signaling a shift towards accessible and efficient energy solutions.