China’s Copper Concentrate Imports Decline in November Amid Smelter Maintenance

China’s Copper

China’s copper concentrate imports fell for the second consecutive month in November 2023, dropping 3% from October and 8.1% year-on-year, as maintenance activities at major copper smelters curtailed demand for feedstock. According to market participants, the affected smelters collectively have an annual production capacity of 2 million tonnes (mn t).

Despite the overall decline, imports from Serbia surged by 26% year-on-year between January and November. This growth is largely attributed to Zijin Mining’s expansion of the Cukaru Peki copper-gold mine, reinforcing China's strategy of securing overseas supply sources.

Supply Shortages Persist Despite Rising Demand

A global shortage of copper concentrate continues to challenge the market, driven by production disruptions at major mines. This supply tightness has been exacerbated by the addition of 800,000 t/yr of new smelting capacity in China in 2023, particularly in the latter half of the year, following the restart and commissioning of several facilities.

Despite the November decline, China's copper concentrate imports increased by 2.1% year-on-year for January-November 2023, supported by a 4.6% rise in domestic refined copper production, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

Tight Copper Concentrate Market Expected in 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, the copper concentrate market is projected to remain tight as smelting capacity expansions outpace new copper mine launches and expansions. This imbalance may sustain pressure on feedstock availability, keeping treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) low and reinforcing concerns over raw material supply security.