Goldman Sachs Raises Copper Price Forecast for 2H25

Goldman Sachs

Supply shortages and Section 232 probe drive outlook

Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for the second half of 2025, citing tightening inventories and ongoing US trade policy uncertainty. The bank now expects the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price to average $9,890/t, up from its earlier estimate of $9,140/t. Prices are forecast to peak at $10,050/t in August before easing to $9,700/t by December, as the Section 232 investigation continues to influence trade flows.

Copper inventories fall as US imports surge

On-warrant LME warehouse stocks have dropped by 77pc since January, with levels now at 57,650t. Goldman Sachs highlighted that the US has already over-imported about 400,000t of copper this year, widening the spread between Comex and LME prices. The firm expects copper inflows into the US to continue until September, when the investigation may impose a 25pc tariff on US copper imports.

Despite record imports, Goldman Sachs projects a global copper surplus of 105,000t for 2025. The US surplus of 400,000t will be partly offset by a 100,000t deficit in China and a 200,000t deficit in other regions. This dynamic underscores how regional trade disruptions are reshaping global copper flows.

Longer-term copper market expectations

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2026 copper price forecast to $10,000/t, down from $10,170/t. The bank now expects a smaller 55,000t deficit in 2026, compared with the earlier estimate of 120,000t. While medium-term demand remains resilient from electrification and energy transition sectors, the supply-demand balance will hinge on trade barriers, production ramp-ups, and Chinese market behavior.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Goldman Sachs’ revised copper price forecast highlights the growing role of geopolitics in shaping commodity markets. With US tariffs looming and Chinese deficits persisting, copper prices may see continued volatility despite the overall global surplus. Investors and producers alike must prepare for policy-driven disruptions that increasingly rival fundamentals in setting market direction.