China Plans to Boost Domestic Copper Resources and Scrap Usage by 2027

China Copper Resources

The country's strategy focuses on expanding copper production and enhancing secondary material utilization.

China has announced plans to increase its domestic copper resources by 5-10% by 2027, along with a significant push to boost the use of secondary materials such as copper scrap. According to a February 11th statement from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the country will focus on expanding copper exploration and production in several key regions. These efforts align with China’s broader strategy to enhance its copper supply chain and reduce dependency on external sources.

Increased Domestic Copper Exploration and Smelting Projects

As part of its initiative, China will promote exploration in regions such as Tibet, Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Heilongjiang provinces. The country has already made substantial progress in discovering new copper resources, with over 20 million tonnes of new copper found in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since 2021. This is double the quantity discovered during the 2016-2020 period. To further boost copper production, China plans to develop new copper mines in these regions and integrate new smelting projects with concentrate production facilities. These projects are expected to play a key role in meeting the country’s growing demand for refined copper.

Boosting Copper Scrap Utilization

Another significant aspect of China’s strategy is increasing the use of copper scrap. Copper smelters will be encouraged to use more secondary copper, which has already become a major feedstock in the production of refined copper. In 2023, more than 31% of China's refined copper came from scrap, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA). To support this, the government plans to back the construction of new copper scrap recycling facilities and increase imports of copper scrap. In 2024, China’s copper scrap imports rose by 13%, reaching over 2.25 million tonnes, as smelters shifted to more cost-effective scrap rather than concentrates due to higher concentrate prices.

Global Copper Supply and Smelting Capacity

China’s increased demand for copper concentrate, along with the country’s focus on smelting capacity expansions, is expected to tighten global copper concentrate supply. This supply crunch has already led to a decline in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) since 2024. Market participants suggest that smelting capacity expansions may outpace new copper mine projects, contributing to continued global supply tightness in 2025.

Conclusion

China’s push to increase domestic copper resources and enhance the use of secondary materials, such as copper scrap, reflects a strategic move to secure its position in the global copper market. With growing demand for refined copper and a constrained global supply of copper concentrates, the country’s efforts to expand production capacity and increase recycling will be essential to meeting future copper needs.

CMOC Copper Output Rises as DRC Mines Strengthen China Supply

CMOC

CMOC copper output increased in the first quarter of 2026 as higher production from the company’s Democratic Republic of Congo copper-cobalt mines lifted supply. The Chinese diversified metals producer produced 187,880t of copper in January-March, up 10% from a year earlier.

CMOC copper output was supported by stronger production at the Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines. These assets are central to China’s copper and cobalt feedstock security because they supply large volumes of cathode and intermediate material from one of the world’s most important copper-cobalt districts.

CMOC copper output is expected to remain a major market focus this year. The company is targeting 760,000-820,000t of copper production in 2026, after producing 741,100t in 2025.

The result reinforces the DRC’s role as China’s largest imported copper cathode source. China imported 275,359t of copper cathode from the DRC in the first quarter, equal to 37.5% of total imports.

Tenke and Kisanfu Anchor CMOC’s Copper Growth

CMOC’s first-quarter copper growth reflects the scale and strategic importance of its DRC operations. Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu remain core assets for the company’s copper-cobalt portfolio.

The company plans to expand output at Kisanfu by adding 100,000 t/yr of copper cathode capacity. Completion is targeted for 2027.

The expansion could also lift cobalt capacity. CMOC has not disclosed the planned increase, but market participants expect Kisanfu’s cobalt capacity to rise by more than 30,000 t/yr.

This matters because copper and cobalt are increasingly linked in DRC project economics. Higher copper output can bring additional cobalt units into the market, depending on ore composition, processing rates and export rules.

The London Metal Exchange approval of CMOC’s TFM-1 copper cathode brand adds another layer of market significance. The brand, produced at Tenke Fungurume, was approved for listing on 27 March and has a registered production capacity of 270,000 t/yr.

Exchange approval improves brand visibility and market acceptance. It can also support trade liquidity, financing and customer confidence for DRC-origin copper cathode.
China’s copper cathode import structure shows why this is important. The DRC already supplies more than one-third of China’s imported cathode, making Congolese supply critical to Chinese refined copper availability.

The China grade-A copper cathode premium was steady at $55-70/t cif Shanghai on 23 April. The range narrowed from $55-75/t a week earlier, showing a relatively stable but cautious spot market.

Cobalt Output Stays Flat as Quotas Restrict Feedstock Flows

CMOC’s cobalt production was largely unchanged in the first quarter. The company produced 30,508t of cobalt, up only 0.3% from a year earlier.

The company set its 2026 cobalt output guidance at 100,000-120,000t. That is broadly stable against 117,549t produced in 2025.

The flat cobalt outlook reflects a more complicated market. The DRC suspended cobalt feedstock exports from 22 February to 15 October 2025 before moving to a quota-based export system for the fourth quarter of 2025 and for 2026-27.

Administrative delays have slowed the quota system. The DRC extended fourth-quarter 2025 quotas to 31 March 2026 because of slow processing.

The effect on Chinese imports has been severe. China imported only 1,278t cobalt metal equivalent of cobalt intermediate feedstock in January-February, down 96% from a year earlier.

Cobalt hydroxide prices remained stable at $25.95-26.10/lb cif China on 23 April. But the stability masks a market still shaped by restricted DRC export flows, delayed allocations and uncertainty over quota administration.

For CMOC, the copper side of the portfolio is showing clear growth. The cobalt side remains more exposed to policy risk, export controls and administrative timing in the DRC.

The Kisanfu expansion could increase future cobalt availability, but the market impact will depend on whether DRC export rules allow material to move smoothly to downstream refiners.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CMOC’s first-quarter results show that DRC copper remains essential to China’s refined copper supply, while cobalt is increasingly constrained by policy rather than production alone. The strategic issue is no longer just mine output, but whether export quotas, brand approvals and logistics can keep critical metal flows moving.

US Tariffs Pressure Copper Prices and Curb China’s Scrap Imports

China Copper

US tariffs, introduced by President Donald Trump on April 2, have significantly impacted global copper prices. The tariffs, set at a minimum 10% tax on all foreign imports, have caused concerns about weakened copper demand, particularly from key industries that rely on copper, such as automobiles and home appliances. China’s copper scrap imports are also under pressure due to retaliatory tariffs, which will be implemented by China on April 10.

Impact of Tariffs on Copper Prices

Following the announcement of tariffs, copper prices saw a dramatic decline. As of April 7, London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper prices fell to a one-year low of $8,105 per ton, a significant drop from $9,721 per ton on April 2. Similarly, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) prices also plummeted to a three-month low of 73,640 yuan per ton from 79,890 yuan per ton during the same period.

Although copper itself is not directly affected by the new tariffs, the downstream sectors, such as automotive manufacturing and home appliances, face substantial tariffs. This will likely depress demand for copper, as these industries represent significant end-users of copper products.

US Tariffs on Cars and Appliances Affect Copper Demand

A 25% tariff on imported cars and trucks came into effect on April 3, with a further 25% tax on auto parts set to follow in May. The US light vehicle market saw significant growth in 2024, with sales climbing to 16.8 million units. Similarly, the US imported $23.5 billion worth of home appliances from China in 2024. These appliances, including cooling devices and electronics, represented 23% of global copper demand in 2023. The imposition of tariffs on these goods will likely lead to a reduction in copper demand from the US.

On a positive note, lower copper prices may drive copper fabricators to restock in the short term, especially after a significant price drop in late March. Data from the SHFE shows that copper stocks fell from 256,328 tons on March 21 to 225,736 tons by April 3, as downstream buyers rushed to purchase copper cathode in response to falling prices.

China’s Retaliatory Tariffs and Copper Scrap Imports

China’s planned tariffs on US copper scrap, set to take effect on April 10, will impact copper supply in the country. In 2024, China imported over 440,000 tons of copper scrap from the US, accounting for nearly 20% of its total copper scrap imports. However, market participants predict that some traders will attempt to bypass the tariffs by sourcing US-origin copper scrap from other countries.

In February, US copper scrap exports fell by 10% compared to the previous year, with China seeing the largest drop in imports. This decrease in exports can be attributed to tariff expectations, which have made it difficult for US exporters to remain competitive. The large spread between CME and LME prices has further strained export options, leaving US dealers with excess scrap volumes.

Limited Impact on Copper Concentrate and Cathode Supplies

China’s retaliatory tariffs are expected to have a minimal impact on its domestic copper concentrate and cathode supply. In 2024, China imported just 460,000 tons of copper concentrate and 1,575 tons of copper cathode from the US, representing only a small fraction of its total imports. Therefore, the retaliatory tariffs are unlikely to cause significant disruptions to these supply chains.

CMOC Copper Output Rose in 2025 on Stronger DRC Production

Copper Wire

CMOC copper output increased in 2025 as the Chinese diversified metals producer lifted production from its copper-cobalt operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The company produced 741,100t of copper during the year, up 14% from 2024.

The increase was driven by higher output from both the Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine and the Kisanfu copper-cobalt mine. These assets remain central to CMOC’s copper growth strategy and to China’s access to African copper cathode supply.

CMOC copper output is expected to rise again in 2026, with the company targeting production of 760,000-820,000t. CMOC also plans to expand copper production at Kisanfu by another 100,000 t/yr in 2027.

DRC Assets Strengthen CMOC’s Copper Growth Platform

CMOC’s production growth reinforces the strategic importance of the DRC in global copper supply. The country has become one of the most important sources of copper cathode for China, supported by large-scale mining, solvent extraction and electrowinning capacity.

Tenke Fungurume remains a key asset in this system. The mine has copper cathode capacity of 270,000 t/yr, and its TFM-1 copper cathode brand was approved by the London Metal Exchange for listing on 27 March.

The LME approval strengthens the marketability of CMOC’s DRC-produced copper. Exchange-listed status can improve brand recognition, liquidity and acceptance among global buyers, especially in refined copper markets where cathode quality and deliverability matter.

China’s Copper Supply Chain Leans Heavily on DRC Cathode

The DRC remained China’s largest source of copper cathode imports in 2025. China imported 1.44mn t of copper cathode from the country, accounting for 37.6% of total imports.

This trade flow highlights the depth of China’s dependence on DRC copper supply. As domestic demand from grids, manufacturing, electric vehicles and energy infrastructure continues, stable access to DRC cathode remains strategically important.

CMOC copper output growth also has wider market implications. Additional production from Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu can help offset disruptions in other copper regions, but it also increases the role of African supply in balancing global refined copper markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CMOC’s 2025 copper growth shows how the DRC has become a core pillar of China’s refined copper security. The next strategic question is whether rising African cathode supply can remain reliable amid infrastructure, policy and geopolitical risks.

China’s Copper Scrap Imports Drop in September Amid Narrowing Price Spreads

Copper Scrap

China’s copper scrap imports declined by 5.4% in September, reflecting market shifts driven by narrowing price spreads between refined copper and copper scrap. According to market participants, the spread, which began at over 2,000 yuan per ton (Yn/t) at the start of August, contracted to around 1,200 yuan/t ($169/t) by the end of the month as copper prices hit a five-month low.

Market Dynamics and Buyer Behavior

The narrower price spread dampened the interest of fabricated product producers in purchasing scrap. Many Chinese copper smelters and secondary producers chose to remain on the sidelines, avoiding major scrap purchases once the spread fell below the perceived reasonable threshold of 1,400 yuan/t.

At the same time, sellers exhibited hesitancy to deliver copper scrap during August's price slump, preferring to wait for higher prices. This shift in behavior further impacted the availability and movement of scrap in September.

The Broader Impact of Rising Costs

Adding to the complexities, many refined copper producers opted to use copper scrap as a substitute for copper concentrate. This switch was driven by the significantly higher costs of copper concentrate, leading to a 16% rise in China’s copper scrap imports during the January-September period.

However, the copper concentrate market faced its own challenges, including a persistent supply crunch that resulted in a sharp 85% drop in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) over the same timeframe.

Outlook

With copper prices and market conditions remaining volatile, China’s copper trade dynamics are expected to continue adjusting as producers and buyers navigate fluctuating costs and price spreads.

EQ copper premiums set to climb in 2026 as China embraces DRC supply

Copper

EQ copper premiums are poised to rise in 2026 as China deepens its adoption of equivalent-quality cathodes sourced from the DRC. Market participants expect EQ copper premiums to move sharply higher from today’s levels, reflecting tighter discounts in the DRC and shifting global trade flows. As a result, EQ copper premiums are becoming a critical signal for Chinese fabricators and global copper traders alike.

EQ copper premiums linked to DRC discounts and shifting trade flows

EQ copper premiums today sit around $30–35/t cif Shanghai, but traders already flag upside for 2026. This year’s term deals for EQ copper premiums were agreed at just $5–10/t, so a move toward $30/t would mark a structural reset. The key driver is cost escalation in the DRC, where discounts to LME prices have narrowed as local prices firm.

Meanwhile, rapid production growth in the DRC has transformed EQ copper’s role in China’s import mix. EQ copper cathode, largely DRC-origin, now accounts for more than a third of China’s cathode imports, up from about 10pc in 2020. At the same time, Chilean cathode has been diverted toward the US, amid tariff speculation, with China’s imports from Chile falling by 45pc year on year in January–August 2025. Therefore EQ copper premiums increasingly reflect both DRC mine economics and changing global copper trade patterns.

EQ copper premiums narrow the gap to exchange-listed cathode

The premium spread between exchange-registered cathodes and EQ copper premiums has narrowed to roughly $30/t this month. Previously, the spread hovered around $50/t in the second quarter, when Chinese buyers still favoured exchange-listed cathodes. However, rising flat prices and tighter LME–SHFE arbitrage have pushed many fabricators toward EQ material.

Chinese cable makers and fabricators now treat EQ cathode as a mainstream choice, thanks to reliable quality and lower all-in costs. As a result, EQ copper premiums are no longer a marginal discount indicator but a core benchmark in the Chinese physical market. At the same time, SuperMetalPrice launch of a dedicated EQ copper import premium assessment formalises this shift and gives traders a clearer pricing reference tied to the LME cash price.

EQ copper premiums sit within a wider zinc and copper premium realignment

EQ copper premiums are rising against a backdrop of broader base metal premium recalibration. Domestic Grade-A copper premiums in China, referenced to SHFE front-month, remain in a modest band from a slight discount to a small premium. Import arbitrage has improved, with the newly assessed copper cathode arbitrage at -Yn280/t, up from deeper negative levels earlier in September, which supports seaborne interest.

At the same time, zinc and other base metal premiums remain capped by weak downstream demand, even as LME stock draws offer support. This creates an unusual environment where EQ copper premiums strengthen on supply and trade-flow dynamics, while broader consumption indicators stay soft. For global traders, EQ copper premiums now sit at the intersection of DRC mine supply, Chinese import arbitrage, and evolving risk pricing around non-exchange material.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EQ copper premiums are emerging as a strategic barometer for China’s copper supply security and DRC exposure. If 2026 term negotiations lock in markedly higher EQ copper premiums, that will confirm EQ cathode’s shift from discount alternative to benchmark feedstock. Watch how Chile–US trade flows and DRC discount behaviour evolve, because both will dictate whether EQ copper premiums continue to climb beyond the $30/t threshold.

Chengtun DRC Copper-Cobalt Project Stake Expands China’s Overseas Resource Push

Chengtun Mining

Chengtun DRC copper-cobalt project investment will give the Chinese mining company an indirect 30% interest in a designated mining asset in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The deal strengthens China’s overseas copper resource strategy as domestic smelting demand continues to rise.

Chengtun Mining’s wholly owned subsidiaries Hongsheng International Resources and Preeminence Holdings signed the agreement with Abu Dhabi-based Novel Mining and Services and its subsidiary Nkoyi Leopard Mining and Investment. Under the deal, Preeminence will acquire 50% of Nkoyi for $300mn.

Chengtun DRC copper-cobalt project exposure is strategically important because the DRC remains one of the world’s key copper and cobalt supply regions. The project’s technical assessment indicates an average copper grade of 1.66% and an associated cobalt grade of 0.67%.

DRC Asset Adds Copper and Cobalt Feedstock Optionality

The acquisition gives Chengtun access to a copper-cobalt asset at a time when Chinese firms are increasing control over upstream mineral resources. This reflects a wider push to secure feedstock for China’s expanding smelting, refining and battery materials sectors.

The companies plan to negotiate binding agreements covering mineral processing and product sales after the initial transaction documents are completed. These future agreements will determine how project output moves into downstream supply chains.

Chengtun expects mine and processing construction to take around 18 months, followed by a 24-month ramp-up period to full capacity. The company has not disclosed expected annual copper output, leaving the project’s full market impact unclear.

China’s Smelting Demand Drives Overseas Copper Ownership

China copper resource ownership is becoming more important as domestic refined copper output continues to grow. China’s refined copper production rose by 9% on the year in January-February, increasing pressure on companies to secure stable concentrate and mine supply.

The DRC has become a central region for Chinese copper and cobalt investment. Its high-grade copper resources and cobalt by-product value make it strategically attractive for companies exposed to both electrification and battery material demand.

The Chengtun DRC copper-cobalt project deal shows that Chinese companies are still willing to deploy capital into African mining assets despite infrastructure, political and execution risks. For China, the priority remains long-term feedstock security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chengtun’s DRC investment shows that China’s copper strategy is moving further upstream. As smelting capacity expands, control over mine supply will become just as important as processing scale.

China copper foil supply deal locks in Baijiada CALB copper foil volumes through 2028

Copper Foil

China copper foil supply deal activity is accelerating as battery makers lock in inputs. Shenzhen Baijiada New Energy agreed to supply 373,000 tonnes of copper foil to CALB from 2026 to 2028. Meanwhile, the company also committed to deliver 45,000 tonnes in 2025. China copper foil supply deal structures like this are reshaping procurement strategies across the battery chain.

Baijiada will deliver 58,000 tonnes in 2026, 130,000 tonnes in 2027, and 185,000 tonnes in 2028. The contract signals confidence in long-cycle EV and storage demand. Therefore, Baijiada CALB copper foil volumes now function like an anchor order. That anchor can influence capacity planning, financing, and raw copper sourcing.

Battery output growth pushes battery copper foil demand higher

Battery copper foil demand continues to rise as China expands power and energy storage output. China’s battery industry reported 1,292.5GWh of production in January to October. Installed volume reached 578GWh over the same period. Meanwhile, CALB posted 40.65GWh of installed capacity, or 7% nationally. As a result, battery copper foil demand remains one of the fastest scaling material pull factors.

China also increased new energy vehicle production to 13.015mn units in the first ten months. Sales reached 12.943mn units over the same timeframe. Therefore, the China lithium battery supply chain is preparing for additional downstream growth. CAAM expects domestic sales to approach 16mn units in 2025.

Capacity expansion intensifies competition in China’s copper foil sector

China’s copper foil industry is expanding quickly and raising execution pressure. Industry estimates place refined copper foil capacity at 2.24mn t/yr in 2024. That marks a 34% increase versus the prior year. Meanwhile, Baijiada operates 140,000t of annual capacity today. Its parent group plans to expand total capacity to 300,000t/yr by 2030.

EV copper foil consumption strengthens the demand floor for multi-year contracts. Industry estimates suggest each battery electric vehicle can use up to 38kg of copper foil. Therefore, China copper foil supply deal commitments can de-risk utilization. However, rapid capacity additions can still compress margins. Producers must optimize quality, yield, and delivery reliability.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Long-dated offtake contracts now act as capacity “tickets” in China’s battery materials race. However, the sector must balance scale with pricing discipline as capacity surges. Therefore, operational efficiency and customer stickiness will decide the next winners.

China’s Copper Concentrate Imports Decline in November Amid Smelter Maintenance

China’s Copper

China’s copper concentrate imports fell for the second consecutive month in November 2023, dropping 3% from October and 8.1% year-on-year, as maintenance activities at major copper smelters curtailed demand for feedstock. According to market participants, the affected smelters collectively have an annual production capacity of 2 million tonnes (mn t).

Despite the overall decline, imports from Serbia surged by 26% year-on-year between January and November. This growth is largely attributed to Zijin Mining’s expansion of the Cukaru Peki copper-gold mine, reinforcing China's strategy of securing overseas supply sources.

Supply Shortages Persist Despite Rising Demand

A global shortage of copper concentrate continues to challenge the market, driven by production disruptions at major mines. This supply tightness has been exacerbated by the addition of 800,000 t/yr of new smelting capacity in China in 2023, particularly in the latter half of the year, following the restart and commissioning of several facilities.

Despite the November decline, China's copper concentrate imports increased by 2.1% year-on-year for January-November 2023, supported by a 4.6% rise in domestic refined copper production, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

Tight Copper Concentrate Market Expected in 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, the copper concentrate market is projected to remain tight as smelting capacity expansions outpace new copper mine launches and expansions. This imbalance may sustain pressure on feedstock availability, keeping treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) low and reinforcing concerns over raw material supply security.

Copper Price Outlook Strengthens as Strategic Demand Supports $15,000/t Scenario

Traxys

Copper price outlook is shifting into a new regime as traders and miners argue that the metal can reach $15,000/t within the next two to three years. Traxys Group chief executive Mark Kristoff said benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange could plausibly touch that level over the next 24-36 months.

Copper price outlook is no longer being shaped only by traditional construction cycles, manufacturing indicators and visible inventories. Speakers at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne said strategic demand, state stockpiling, sulphuric acid risk and artificial intelligence infrastructure are now carrying greater influence.

Copper price outlook has strengthened even though global visible inventories remain high on paper at around 1.9mn-2mn t. Market participants said this reflects a breakdown in the old relationship between warehouse stocks and price, as governments and industrial buyers increasingly treat copper as a policy metal.

The price rally above $13,000/t has aligned with forecasts from major trading houses such as Mercuria. But the more important point is structural: copper is now being priced as a strategic asset tied to electrification, grids, data centres, defence and national industrial policy.

Data Centres and Stockpiling Add a Strategic Premium

Copper’s identity is changing from “Dr Copper” to a policy metal. The old model treated copper as a broad indicator of construction, manufacturing and economic activity. That model is now too narrow.

Data centres and artificial intelligence are becoming major new demand drivers. The next decade could create 2mn-3mn t of additional copper demand from data centres alone. Associated grid reinforcement and power connections could require another 7mn-8mn t.

This demand is not optional. AI infrastructure needs power, cooling, cabling, transformers, substations and grid expansion. Copper sits at the centre of that buildout.

State stockpiling is also changing market behaviour. China’s inventory building and the US strategic push for copper supply are creating demand that does not move like normal industrial consumption.

This helps explain why copper prices remain near historic highs despite weakness in China’s property sector. Around a quarter of China’s copper demand was historically linked to housing, but newer demand channels are offsetting part of that drag.

Electrification, military demand, AI infrastructure and strategic reserves are now becoming more important to price formation. These forces make copper less cyclical than before and more exposed to policy decisions.

The US is also treating copper as a strategic material. Washington is trying to secure domestic and allied supply chains, especially as grid investment, manufacturing reshoring and defence priorities increase copper’s policy value.

Offtake structures are becoming more important in this environment. Copper is increasingly being tied to specific industrial strategies, not just traded as a floating global commodity.

That shift changes where value sits. Traders, miners and governments are no longer competing only for price advantage. They are competing for logistics, location, financing, offtake and control over final destination.

Sulphuric Acid Risk Exposes the Supply Side

The supply side remains the bigger constraint. Major mining groups continue to face falling ore grades, higher capital costs, long permitting timelines and more complex operating conditions.

Average copper grades have declined enough that some producers are processing ore closer to 0.5% copper. That means miners must move, crush and treat much more rock for each tonne of copper produced.

This raises costs and lengthens development timelines. It also makes new supply less responsive to price rallies. Even copper above $13,000/t does not quickly create new mines.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid have become hidden constraints in the copper market. They are especially important for solvent extraction-electrowinning operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile.

SX-EW production accounts for around 17% of global copper supply. Prolonged sulphuric acid disruption could curtail around 125,000t of DRC output and put around 200,000t of Chilean output at risk in the second half of the year.

This risk matters because the DRC has been one of the most important sources of copper supply growth. Its high grades, flexible project scale and faster development potential make it central to global supply expectations.

However, much of the DRC’s leached copper depends on acid availability. If sulphur or sulphuric acid supply tightens, production costs can rise sharply and some output can become vulnerable.

The risk also hits at a sensitive point in the cycle. The market may show a projected surplus on paper, but that surplus can narrow quickly if input disruptions affect key growth regions.

This is why copper’s current pricing cannot be read only through visible stocks. Inventories may look comfortable, but operational supply chains are more fragile than the headline numbers suggest.

For copper buyers, the lesson is clear. Secure supply now depends on more than exchange access. It depends on geography, processing route, reagents, energy, logistics and policy exposure.

For miners, the opportunity is equally clear. Assets with high grades, reliable acid supply, integrated infrastructure and faster expansion potential will command a strategic premium.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The $15,000/t copper scenario is not only a price forecast; it reflects a new industrial reality. Copper is becoming a strategic bottleneck for AI, grids and electrification, while acid and permitting risks limit how quickly supply can respond.

Refined Copper Flows Split Between US Stock-Build and China Demand Recovery

US Copper

Refined copper flows are being pulled in two directions as US tariff risk draws cathode into Comex warehouses while China returns to the seaborne market after a sharp fall in domestic inventories. The result is not a simple global shortage, but a more complex location-driven contest for metal.

Refined copper flows were distorted in the first quarter by financial investor activity, US policy uncertainty and weak Chinese import economics. That balance is now shifting as China’s import arbitrage reopens, while US buyers and traders continue to position ahead of possible refined copper tariffs.

Refined copper flows are therefore becoming more strategic. The same unit of cathode can carry different value depending on whether it sits in the US, China, bonded warehouses or LME storage.

This market structure matters because copper is no longer priced only against broad industrial demand. Tariff risk, warehouse location, arbitrage spreads, strategic stock-building and smelter economics are now shaping physical trade.

US Tariff Risk Keeps Pulling Copper Into Comex

US copper inventories continue to build as tariff uncertainty supports a location premium. Comex warehouse stocks rose to 615,852 short tons on 4 May, up 5% from 586,563t on 14 April.

This build does not necessarily show stronger underlying US consumption. It shows that market participants are willing to pay to position metal inside the US before potential import tariff announcements this summer.

US refined copper and unwrought copper alloy imports under HS 7403 reached 382,952t in January-February 2026. That was up 184% from 134,754t a year earlier.

The longer trend is even clearer. Imports over March 2025-February 2026 more than doubled to 1.9mn t from 923,701t in the previous 12-month period.

Arbitrage has reinforced the flow. The LME cash official to Comex cash copper arbitrage widened to minus $385.14/t on 1 May from minus $261.24/t on 30 April and minus $126.50/t on 29 April.

That widening spread signals a stronger US location premium. It gives traders an incentive to direct copper units into Comex warehouses rather than leave them available to other regional buyers.

This has important supply-chain implications. A high level of visible copper stock does not automatically mean metal is freely available to every market. If inventories are concentrated in one jurisdiction for policy reasons, other regions can tighten even while global stock numbers look comfortable.

The US stock-build is therefore a policy-driven trade flow. It reflects uncertainty over future tariff treatment, not a normal demand cycle.

For manufacturers, this creates procurement risk. Fabricators outside the US may face tighter access to marginal units if traders continue sending cathode into the American system.

For traders, location is becoming a profit centre. The value is not only in the copper price, but in where the copper is held and what policy regime applies to it.

China Import Window Reopens as Domestic Stocks Fall

China is now creating the counter pull. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse stocks fell to 201,373t on 24 April from 433,458t on 13 March.

Bonded copper stocks also slipped to 19,159t on 24 April from 22,547t on 20 March. That drawdown reopened space for imported cathode after a weak first quarter for overseas material.

China’s import arbitrage improved sharply at the end of April. The grade A copper cathode import margin rose to 427 yuan/t on 30 April from 94 yuan/t on 28 April and minus 73 yuan/t on 23 April.

If the window remains open, China’s second-quarter refined copper imports could recover from first-quarter levels. Buyers have a clearer reason to replenish domestic supply after the recent inventory draw.

However, the recovery may be uneven. High outright copper prices still limit fabricator appetite, and part of the stock draw reflects seasonal restocking after the first-quarter lull.

The wider inventory picture still does not support a broad scarcity narrative. LME copper stocks remained sizable at 398,675t, while on-warrant inventories have risen sharply since early January.

This means the market is not short everywhere. It is tight in specific locations, under specific pricing structures, and for specific buyers.

That is the core point. Refined copper flows are increasingly being shaped by regional availability rather than total visible inventory.

Smelter economics add another risk to the China outlook. Copper concentrate treatment and refining charges remain deeply negative, showing that mine supply is tight while smelting capacity remains excessive.

Chinese smelters have continued running at high rates despite negative treatment charges. High sulphuric acid by-product values have helped support operating economics.

That balance may become more fragile after China’s suspension of sulphuric acid exports from May. If more acid remains in the domestic market, smelters may face weaker by-product revenue or rising storage pressure.

If domestic acid demand cannot absorb the extra supply, some smelters may bring forward maintenance. That would tighten refined copper output later in the quarter and strengthen the case for more imports.

The refined copper market is therefore in a split-flow pattern. US policy risk is pulling copper west, while China’s inventory draw and import window are pulling metal back east.

For other regions, that creates a squeeze. Europe and other buyers may find marginal cathode harder to source even while global inventories appear adequate.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper is moving from a global inventory story to a location and policy story. The real risk is not that the world lacks refined copper today, but that tariff positioning, Chinese restocking and smelter economics keep redirecting the same units away from other buyers.

China's Copper Imports Decline Amid Global Supply Shortage

China's Copper

In August 2023, China's copper concentrate imports dropped by 4.6% compared to the same period in 2022, according to recent customs data. This decline is primarily attributed to a global shortage of copper concentrate, driven by production disruptions at key mining sites worldwide. Despite a surge in domestic demand from copper smelters, which saw an additional 800,000 tons of smelting capacity come online during the second half of 2023, supply constraints outweighed the demand increase.

China's smelters, anticipating peak activity in September and October, boosted imports by 18.9% from July to restock reserves. A key factor in China's sourcing strategy has been increased imports from Serbia, making up 30.5% of China’s total copper concentrate imports from January to August—an increase of 26.7% compared to the previous year. This rise is largely due to Zijin Mining’s expansion at the Cukaru Peki copper-gold mine in Serbia.

The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s refined copper production reached 8.908 million tons from January to August, a 6.2% year-on-year increase, underscoring China's ability to ramp up production despite global supply challenges.

China's Jiayuan to Secure Copper Cathode Supply from Swiss Firm IXM for Lithium-Ion Foil Production

Guangdong Jiayuan

Guangdong Jiayuan, a leading Chinese copper foil producer, has reached an agreement with Switzerland-based trading firm IXM to purchase a significant quantity of copper cathode feedstock. The deal, valued at approximately 5.066 billion yuan ($694 million), is set to support Jiayuan’s expansion of refined copper foil production, which is critical for lithium-ion batteries, copper-clad laminates, and printed circuit boards.

Details of the Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement

The agreement between Jiayuan and IXM will see the Chinese company secure 60,000 tons of copper cathode from IXM’s Geneva operations between December 2024 and November 2025. Additionally, Jiayuan will purchase 10,000 tons of cathode from IXM’s Shanghai branch during 2025. The price of the copper cathode will be determined through a negotiated pricing methodology, which will be finalized when both parties sign the contract.

Jiayuan, with a production capacity of 100,000 tons per year of refined copper foil, has seen steady growth in its production. In the first half of 2024, the company produced 24,000 tons of copper foil, marking a slight increase of 0.1% year-over-year. This agreement will ensure a steady supply of high-quality copper cathode to meet the growing demand for copper foil in key sectors such as electric vehicle (EV) batteries and electronic components.

China's Booming Copper Foil and NEV Industries

China’s refined copper foil production capacity reached 1.6 million tons per year in 2023, a 51% increase from the previous year. Notably, the production capacity for lithium-ion copper foil—used in batteries for electric vehicles—rose sharply by 68%, reaching 950,000 tons per year in 2023. With China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) market expanding rapidly, the demand for lithium-ion copper foil is expected to grow significantly. Industry experts predict that deliveries of lithium-ion copper foil in China will reach 1.1 million tons per year by 2025.

The Chinese NEV industry is experiencing robust growth, with production rising by 35% to 11.345 million units in the first 11 months of 2024. Sales of NEVs have also surged, increasing by 36% over the same period. As the NEV market continues to expand, the demand for copper, particularly copper foil for lithium-ion batteries, is expected to increase, further driving the need for stable copper supply agreements like the one between Jiayuan and IXM.

Copper Market Trends and Prices

On December 12, 2024, Metalnomist-assessed grade-A copper cathode prices, based on the London Metal Exchange (LME) official cash prices, were in the range of $40-60 per ton cif Shanghai. These prices remained flat compared to December 10, but they had dropped from the previous range of $45-60 per ton observed on December 5 due to a rebound in copper prices during the week. The fluctuating prices highlight the importance of securing stable supply contracts for manufacturers like Jiayuan as copper remains a critical commodity in the transition to a low-carbon economy.

China's Copper Scrap Imports Surge in 2024 Amid Tight Supply and Policy Changes

Copper Scrap

China’s copper scrap imports saw a notable 13% increase in 2024 as domestic refined copper producers turned to scrap due to a tightening copper concentrate supply. This shift helped offset the shortages in copper concentrate, which traditionally serves as the primary feedstock for refining operations. The increased demand for scrap also led to a significant month-on-month rise in December, with imports soaring by 25% compared to November.

December Surge Attributed to Price Dynamics and US-Related Imports

A key factor contributing to this December surge was the reopening of the import arbitrage in the second half of November. This shift occurred as domestic copper metal prices in China rose above those on the London Metal Exchange (LME), making imports more economically viable. Additionally, scrap buyers accelerated the clearance of US-origin copper scrap at customs to avoid potential countermeasures after the election of US President Donald Trump. This urgency, combined with strategic import decisions, led to a marked rise in imports in the final month of the year.

Government Policy Supports Copper Scrap Imports in 2025

In a bid to further boost the availability of copper scrap, China has expanded its import duty exemptions for recycled copper feedstocks. For 2025, the government broadened the scope of products under HS code 74040000 to include not only recycled brass and copper feedstocks but also recycled copper and alloy feedstocks. Import duties for these materials remain at zero, a move that further encourages the import of scrap and helps meet the growing demand for copper in China.

Copper Cathode Output Declines in 2023-24

Aurubis, Europe’s leading copper producer and recycler, reported a 4% drop in its copper cathode production for the 2023-24 fiscal year, totaling 578,000 tons. The decline was driven by a 30% reduction in output at its Hamburg facility, where operations were delayed following a maintenance shutdown. Despite the setback in Germany, the company maintained a solid performance in Bulgaria, with 229,000 tons produced at its Pirdop site.

China’s JCHX Expands Lonshi Copper Mine in DRC with $751.3M Investment

JCHX Mining

Strategic Expansion Aims to Boost Copper Concentrate Output

Chinese mining company JCHX Mining Management plans to expand copper concentrate production at its Lonshi Copper Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This development includes the exploration of the east mining area, with a new copper ore processing capacity of 3.5 million tonnes per year (t/yr) and an estimated $751.3 million investment. The construction timeline spans 4.5 years, though the official start date remains undisclosed. Once fully operational, the east mining area is expected to reach full capacity within four years of commissioning.

Increasing Copper Production Capacity

JCHX launched the west mining area of the Lonshi mine in Q4 2023, achieving an annual copper concentrate production capacity of 40,000 t/yr. With the east mining expansion, the entire Lonshi mine is projected to produce 100,000 t/yr of copper concentrate. In the first half of 2024, JCHX reported a fourfold increase in copper concentrate production compared to the same period in 2023, reaching 13,213 tonnes.

JCHX’s Growing Presence in Africa and Beyond

In addition to Lonshi, JCHX operates the Dikulushi copper mine in the DRC and the Lubambe copper mine in Zambia. The company is also awaiting mining approval for its San Matias mine in Colombia. This expansion aligns with China’s broader strategy of securing copper supply for its growing smelting capacities.

China’s Expanding Global Copper Footprint

China produced 12.451 million tonnes of refined copper between January and November 2024, marking a 4.6% year-over-year increase, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Chinese mining firms, including Zijin Mining, have accelerated overseas copper acquisitions, with Zijin currently pursuing the La Arena copper-gold mine in Peru to bolster its global copper and gold output.

Market analysts anticipate a tight copper concentrate supply in 2025, as smelting capacity expansion is projected to outpace new mining projects. This dynamic reinforces China’s aggressive push into international copper mining investments.

Chinalco Boosts Copper Anode Capacity Amid Rising Scrap Use

Chinalco

Major Upgrade at Dianzhong Smelter Targets Increased Output and Efficiency

China’s Chinalco has commenced operations of a new copper anode furnace at its Dianzhong smelter in Chuxiong, Yunnan province. This initiative is part of a 515 million yuan ($70.2 million) upgrade project. The upgrade aims to elevate the smelter’s copper anode production from 191,700 tonnes per year to 249,800 tonnes per year. Furthermore, a 210,000 tonnes per year copper cathode refining facility is set to launch in May.

Increased Scrap Integration

The Dianzhong smelter, previously reliant on copper concentrate, now incorporates a copper scrap feeding facility. This addition aligns with the growing trend of utilizing secondary copper. In 2023, over 31% of China's refined copper output originated from copper scrap, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. The rising cost of copper concentrate has driven many producers to favor copper scrap. This shift led to a 14% year-on-year increase in China's copper scrap imports, reaching 2.03 million tonnes from January to November.

Market Implications

This expansion by Chinalco reflects the broader industry trend of adapting to feedstock cost fluctuations and increasing reliance on recycled materials. The upgrade will strengthen Chinalco's copper production capabilities and contribute to the supply of copper cathode. The increased usage of copper scrap also highlights the growing importance of the circular economy within the metals industry.

China's Copper Discoveries Surge on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: 20 Million Tonnes Added Since 2021

China Copper mining

Major Mining Projects Expand as China Bolsters Domestic Copper Reserves

China has significantly expanded its copper resources, discovering over 20 million tonnes (mn t) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau between 2021 and 2024. This discovery doubles the total amount found in the preceding five years (2016-2020), marking a substantial increase in China's domestic copper reserves.

Key Mining Projects and Resource Potential

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a region rich in mineral deposits, hosts several major copper mines, including Yulong, Duolong, Julong-Jiama, and Xiongcun-Zhunuo. According to a China Geological Survey report released on January 7th, these mines have a projected resource potential of 150 mn t.

Zijin Mining's Expansion

Zijin Mining, a prominent Chinese diversified metals mining company, commenced operations at the Yulong copper mine, China's second-largest single copper deposit, in November 2023. The company also began commercial production at its Julong copper mine in Tibet in December 2021. Zijin plans to launch the second phase of the Julong mine in the first quarter of 2026, increasing its copper production from 154,000 t in 2023 to 300,000-350,000 t/yr. A third phase is also planned, aiming to expand output to 600,000 t/yr, although the construction timeline is yet to be announced.

Furthermore, Zijin is set to launch the 76,000 t/yr Zhunuo copper mine in Tibet in June 2026. The company also holds a 45% stake in the Xiongcun mine, with the remaining 55% owned by Jinchuan Group.

Other Mining Developments

China Gold International Resources, a Canada-based mining firm, anticipates copper output at its Jiama copper mine in Tibet to rise to 63,000-67,000 t in 2025, up from 43,200-44,500 t in the previous year, following the resumption of operations in 2024. The company confirmed that the January 7th earthquake in Tibet did not impact operations at the Jiama mine.

Additionally, copper resources at the Duobaoshan mine in Heilongjiang province were revised upwards by 3.65 mn t following an exploration in June 2024.

China Expands Copper and Aluminium Duty Exemptions for 2025

Recycled Copper

In a bid to promote sustainable growth, China has announced expanded import duty exemptions on recycled copper and aluminium feedstocks for 2025. This change is part of the country’s broader strategy to bolster green and low-carbon development in its metal industries. The move reflects China’s ongoing efforts to ease restrictions on secondary copper and aluminium imports, which could have significant implications for both domestic and international markets.

Expansion of Duty Exemptions

Under the new policy, China will expand the HS code 74040000 to include “recycled copper and alloy feedstock” for 2025, up from just "recycled brass copper feedstock" and "recycled copper feedstock" in 2024. Similarly, the HS code 76020000 will also broaden to cover “recycled aluminium and alloy feedstock” from the previous scope of "recycled cast aluminum alloy feedstock" in 2024. The import duties for both categories will remain at zero for 2025, continuing the exemptions in place for 2024.

This expansion is intended to enhance the country’s circular economy and support the shift toward greener practices in the recycling and processing of metals. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, the adjustments will help promote low-carbon development, driving demand for sustainable production methods.

The move follows an increase in China’s copper scrap imports, which saw a 14% rise from January to November in 2024 compared to the previous year, signaling a positive trend for the country's metal recycling sector.

Continued Duties on Other Base Metals

While China is easing import duties on certain recycled metals, the government has decided to keep export duties on various base metals, minor metals, ferro-alloys, and rare earths in place for 2025. This includes maintaining the 40% export duty on ferro-chrome, a 25% duty on silico-manganese and ferro-silicon, and a 20% export duty on ferro-manganese. These duties align with China’s broader objective of controlling the export of energy-intensive and pollution-heavy products.

The country will also continue with export duties on a variety of concentrates, such as lead, zinc, tantalum, and niobium, as well as a 20% duty on tin, tungsten, and antimony concentrates, which are less frequently exported due to China’s limited domestic resources of these metals. Additionally, China will maintain duties on several metals, including a 5-15% export duty on copper, nickel, and zinc alloys and products.

China's new policy also includes a zero import duty on spodumene for 2025, marking another significant move in its strategic approach to securing key raw materials for its growing battery and electronics industries.

Luanshya Copper Mine Restart Supports Zambia’s Copper Growth Ambition

Luanshya Copper Mine

Luanshya copper mine restart plans are moving forward in Zambia, with the upper mine expected to resume production in August after two decades of care and maintenance. The mine is mainly controlled by China Nonferrous Mining Corporation.

The Luanshya copper mine restart follows a dewatering process after severe flooding damaged infrastructure at the site. Zambia’s mines ministry said the upper mine is set to restart first, while the lower mine is expected to begin production in 2029.

The Luanshya copper mine restart could become a meaningful addition to Zambia’s long-term copper supply base. Once fully operational by 2030, the mine is expected to produce around 100,000 t/yr of copper.

The project matters because Zambia is trying to raise national copper output sharply. The country produced more than 890,000t of copper in 2025, up 8% from a year earlier, and is targeting 1mn t this year.

Restart Adds Near-Term Momentum to Zambia’s Copper Pipeline

Luanshya’s return is important because it brings an idled asset back into Zambia’s operating copper base. Restarting an existing mine can be faster than building a new greenfield project, although dewatering, infrastructure repair and operational stabilisation still create execution risk.

The upper mine restart in August gives Zambia a near-term production milestone. The lower mine start-up in 2029 would then support a second phase of output growth.

If the mine reaches full output of 100,000 t/yr by 2030, it would make a material contribution to Zambia’s production targets. It would also strengthen the country’s position as one of Africa’s key copper suppliers.

Zambia wants to lift copper output to 3mn t by 2032. That target will require restarts, expansions, new projects, processing investment and more reliable infrastructure across the mining sector.

CNMC Role Highlights China’s African Copper Position

CNMC’s control of Luanshya reinforces China’s continuing role in African copper supply. Chinese companies have become major investors in copper assets across Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

This has strategic importance for global copper flows. As copper demand rises from grids, electrification, data centres and industrial policy, ownership and offtake structures in Africa are becoming more politically and commercially significant.

Luanshya’s restart also comes as western governments seek greater access to African copper supply. Zambia is therefore becoming a more important battleground for investment, financing, logistics and long-term offtake.

For the copper market, the project adds supply visibility but not immediate full-scale relief. The larger impact depends on whether the mine can ramp steadily, manage water and infrastructure risks, and reach its 2030 production target.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Luanshya’s restart shows why brownfield copper assets are regaining strategic value. In a market short of fast supply growth, Zambia’s ability to revive idled mines could matter as much as discovering new deposits.

Heli Secondary Copper Capacity Expansion Signals China’s Recycling Push

Jiangxi Heli

China’s Heli secondary copper capacity expansion will lift recycled copper output in Jiangxi. The project upgrades and relocates Heli’s smelter in Shangrao, targeting 200,000 t/yr of refined copper. As a result, the Heli secondary copper capacity expansion supports supply security amid tight concentrate markets. Therefore, the Heli secondary copper capacity expansion strengthens China’s circular-economy copper strategy.

Why Jiangxi’s upgrade matters for copper supply

Jiangxi is a national copper hub with strong refining and fabrication. Heli’s upgrade adds scale while using scrap, sludge, and other secondary feedstocks. Meanwhile, parent firm Fuye plans a 180,000 t/yr secondary smelter nearby. Together, these moves deepen regional clustering and logistics advantages.

Secondary copper rises as concentrates stay tight

Persistent concentrate tightness is accelerating China’s secondary shift. Secondary copper already supplies a growing share of cathode demand. Consequently, new capacity helps stabilize cathode availability and reduce import exposure. It also lowers carbon intensity versus primary smelting, aiding downstream ESG goals.

China produced 2.9mn t of secondary copper in 2024. That accounted for 62.7% of global secondary output. Therefore, incremental Jiangxi capacity will influence global scrap flows and premiums. Other recyclers, including Jiangxi Bailian, are also expanding in the province.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China is locking in a scrap-first hedge against concentrate volatility. Expect tighter global scrap balances and firmer high-grade scrap premiums. Regional clustering in Jiangxi will compress unit costs and attract more downstream fabricators.