Refined Copper Flows Split Between US Stock-Build and China Demand Recovery

US Copper

Refined copper flows are being pulled in two directions as US tariff risk draws cathode into Comex warehouses while China returns to the seaborne market after a sharp fall in domestic inventories. The result is not a simple global shortage, but a more complex location-driven contest for metal.

Refined copper flows were distorted in the first quarter by financial investor activity, US policy uncertainty and weak Chinese import economics. That balance is now shifting as China’s import arbitrage reopens, while US buyers and traders continue to position ahead of possible refined copper tariffs.

Refined copper flows are therefore becoming more strategic. The same unit of cathode can carry different value depending on whether it sits in the US, China, bonded warehouses or LME storage.

This market structure matters because copper is no longer priced only against broad industrial demand. Tariff risk, warehouse location, arbitrage spreads, strategic stock-building and smelter economics are now shaping physical trade.

US Tariff Risk Keeps Pulling Copper Into Comex

US copper inventories continue to build as tariff uncertainty supports a location premium. Comex warehouse stocks rose to 615,852 short tons on 4 May, up 5% from 586,563t on 14 April.

This build does not necessarily show stronger underlying US consumption. It shows that market participants are willing to pay to position metal inside the US before potential import tariff announcements this summer.

US refined copper and unwrought copper alloy imports under HS 7403 reached 382,952t in January-February 2026. That was up 184% from 134,754t a year earlier.

The longer trend is even clearer. Imports over March 2025-February 2026 more than doubled to 1.9mn t from 923,701t in the previous 12-month period.

Arbitrage has reinforced the flow. The LME cash official to Comex cash copper arbitrage widened to minus $385.14/t on 1 May from minus $261.24/t on 30 April and minus $126.50/t on 29 April.

That widening spread signals a stronger US location premium. It gives traders an incentive to direct copper units into Comex warehouses rather than leave them available to other regional buyers.

This has important supply-chain implications. A high level of visible copper stock does not automatically mean metal is freely available to every market. If inventories are concentrated in one jurisdiction for policy reasons, other regions can tighten even while global stock numbers look comfortable.

The US stock-build is therefore a policy-driven trade flow. It reflects uncertainty over future tariff treatment, not a normal demand cycle.

For manufacturers, this creates procurement risk. Fabricators outside the US may face tighter access to marginal units if traders continue sending cathode into the American system.

For traders, location is becoming a profit centre. The value is not only in the copper price, but in where the copper is held and what policy regime applies to it.

China Import Window Reopens as Domestic Stocks Fall

China is now creating the counter pull. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse stocks fell to 201,373t on 24 April from 433,458t on 13 March.

Bonded copper stocks also slipped to 19,159t on 24 April from 22,547t on 20 March. That drawdown reopened space for imported cathode after a weak first quarter for overseas material.

China’s import arbitrage improved sharply at the end of April. The grade A copper cathode import margin rose to 427 yuan/t on 30 April from 94 yuan/t on 28 April and minus 73 yuan/t on 23 April.

If the window remains open, China’s second-quarter refined copper imports could recover from first-quarter levels. Buyers have a clearer reason to replenish domestic supply after the recent inventory draw.

However, the recovery may be uneven. High outright copper prices still limit fabricator appetite, and part of the stock draw reflects seasonal restocking after the first-quarter lull.

The wider inventory picture still does not support a broad scarcity narrative. LME copper stocks remained sizable at 398,675t, while on-warrant inventories have risen sharply since early January.

This means the market is not short everywhere. It is tight in specific locations, under specific pricing structures, and for specific buyers.

That is the core point. Refined copper flows are increasingly being shaped by regional availability rather than total visible inventory.

Smelter economics add another risk to the China outlook. Copper concentrate treatment and refining charges remain deeply negative, showing that mine supply is tight while smelting capacity remains excessive.

Chinese smelters have continued running at high rates despite negative treatment charges. High sulphuric acid by-product values have helped support operating economics.

That balance may become more fragile after China’s suspension of sulphuric acid exports from May. If more acid remains in the domestic market, smelters may face weaker by-product revenue or rising storage pressure.

If domestic acid demand cannot absorb the extra supply, some smelters may bring forward maintenance. That would tighten refined copper output later in the quarter and strengthen the case for more imports.

The refined copper market is therefore in a split-flow pattern. US policy risk is pulling copper west, while China’s inventory draw and import window are pulling metal back east.

For other regions, that creates a squeeze. Europe and other buyers may find marginal cathode harder to source even while global inventories appear adequate.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper is moving from a global inventory story to a location and policy story. The real risk is not that the world lacks refined copper today, but that tariff positioning, Chinese restocking and smelter economics keep redirecting the same units away from other buyers.

ICSG copper market surplus narrows, but inventories shift to the US

ICSG

The ICSG copper market surplus reached 251,000t in 1H 2025. This ICSG copper market surplus narrowed from 395,000t last year. However, refined output and inventory dynamics still temper tightness signals.

Supply lifted by Peru and the DRC, while Indonesia lags

Global mine output rose by 2.7pc on stronger runs at Las Bambas and Toromocho. Meanwhile, the DRC grew 9.5pc, led by Kamoa and TFM/KFM. Mongolia advanced 31pc on the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up. However, Indonesian output fell 36pc on weaker Grasberg and Batu Hijau. Chile gained 2.6pc despite drops at Collahuasi and Los Pelambres.

Refined production increased 3.6pc, driven by China and the DRC. Outside these two, refined output rose just 0.6pc. Chilean refined production fell 8.4pc amid smelter shutdowns. Meanwhile, secondary refined output rose 3.7pc, as Chinese scrap use strengthened. Therefore, the ICSG copper market surplus narrowed but persisted.

Demand concentrated in China as inventories migrate to Comex

Refined usage climbed 4.8pc in January–June. Chinese demand rose 7.5pc, lifting its share to 58pc. However, China’s net imports fell 2.6pc, reflecting stronger domestic supply. Consumption outside China grew 1pc, with Asia, MENA gains offsetting EU, Japan, and US declines.

Exchange inventories totaled 450,752t at July end, up 4.8pc from December. LME stocks fell 129,600t, while SHFE was unchanged. However, Comex inventories rose 150,873t, as metal shifted to the US on tariff concerns. The July LME cash price averaged $9,778/t, down 0.6pc month on month. The 2025 high was $10,120/t on 3 July; the low was $8,539/t on 9 April. As a result, the ICSG copper market surplus coexists with firm price support near $10,000/t.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This print confirms a market in balance rather than deficit. Watch Comex inflows, Chilean smelter uptime, and Indonesia’s recovery for price direction. A decisive break higher likely needs sustained stock draws, not just mine-side headlines.

Copper Aluminium Pricing Divergence Deepens as Middle East Shock Turns Metal-Specific

Sucden Financial

Copper aluminium pricing divergence is becoming clearer as base metal markets absorb the first shock of the Middle East conflict. Copper is shifting back toward physical flows, inventories and policy risk, while aluminium remains supported by direct disruption to Middle East supply chains.

Copper aluminium pricing divergence reflects a broader change in market behaviour. Traders are moving away from headline-led volatility and focusing more on spreads, premiums, inventories and real supply constraints.

Copper aluminium pricing divergence also shows that the base metals complex is no longer trading as one geopolitical basket. Each metal is now being priced according to its own exposure to the war, its physical balance and its ability to replace disrupted supply.

UK broker Sucden Financial said the conflict initially drove broad volatility across commodities. But that phase is fading, leaving copper and aluminium on different pricing paths.

Copper Moves From Macro Risk to Physical and Policy Pricing

Copper began the year as a macro-driven metal. Prices moved with broader risk sentiment, oil, gold and cross-asset positioning.

That relationship is now weakening. Copper is increasingly being priced through its own market signals, including Shanghai inventory drawdowns, US flow incentives, mined supply quality and sulphuric acid-related supply-chain disruption.

This shift matters because copper is no longer responding only to global growth fears or geopolitical headlines. It is being priced through physical availability and policy exposure.

The Comex premium has periodically reopened the arbitrage for copper units to move into the US. This has made the interaction between LME, Comex, inventories and US policy more important to price discovery.

Sucden said the next phase of copper pricing could be shaped by material-security concerns. These include tariff threats, incentives to hold more metal in the US and the strategic value of copper in energy infrastructure.

This is a macro-to-micro rotation. Copper is moving away from broad geopolitical trading and toward a market driven by premiums, spreads, stock locations and supply-chain constraints.

Sulphuric acid remains a key hidden risk. Copper supply from leaching operations, particularly in regions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile, can be affected if acid availability tightens or costs rise.

The market still remains exposed to recession fears. A deeper economic slowdown caused by the conflict could weigh on copper demand and financial positioning.

However, copper’s resilience suggests that traders are giving greater weight to structural tightness. Supply challenges, low-quality mined material and long-term demand from grids, electrification and industrial policy continue to support the metal.

Sucden argued that copper’s long-term direction remains higher and that price dips should be bought. The structural case has not changed, while eventual dollar weakness after a conflict resolution could provide further support.

Aluminium Holds a Firmer Physical Floor After Supply Shock

Aluminium has already repriced much of the Middle East disruption. The metal briefly moved toward the upper end of its recent range as the conflict escalated, but repeated failures above $3,650/t suggest the market needs further supply deterioration to justify another major move higher.

This does not mean aluminium is weak. It means the initial panic premium has already been absorbed.

Aluminium’s support is more physical than copper’s. The disruption affects smelting, feedstock flows and export availability from the Middle East, making the supply shock more direct than headline numbers may suggest.

Sucden said aluminium remains the base metal with the clearest exposure to the Middle East war. Ex-China supply is tighter, London Metal Exchange inventories are falling and nearby spreads have moved into backwardation.

Chinese inventories have risen, but that does not fully offset the tightness outside China. Regional availability matters more when logistics, origin and delivery routes are disrupted.

Aluminium smelters also cannot restart quickly. Once production is curtailed, bringing capacity back requires time, stable power and commercial confidence.

Elevated energy prices add another layer of cost support. Even if the war de-escalates, smelters and downstream producers may still face a higher operating cost base.

Sucden said de-escalation could initially push aluminium prices toward $3,400/t. But any decline may prove short-lived if physical tightness remains.

This gives aluminium limited immediate upside but also limited downside. The market has already priced much of the shock, yet replacement supply is not easy to find.

The broader implication is that aluminium is trading a tighter physical balance, not only a war premium. That makes its price floor firmer than a market driven purely by sentiment.

For industrial buyers, the copper-aluminium split is important. Copper procurement risk is increasingly tied to policy, US flows and strategic inventory. Aluminium risk is tied more directly to missing tonnes, energy costs and disrupted regional supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Middle East conflict is exposing the real structure of each base metal market. Copper is becoming a policy-and-premium metal, while aluminium is being supported by a more immediate physical supply shock.

Copper Rally Near Its Peak: Goldman Sachs Sees Sentiment Outrunning Fundamentals

Goldman Sachs

Copper rally near its peak now reflects stretched positioning more than tightening supply. Copper rally near its peak follows record prices above $11,200/t this week. Copper rally near its peak should fade toward a $10,000–11,000/t range, Goldman Sachs says.

Copper’s latest spike was driven by bullish sentiment and a softer dollar. However, Goldman argues fundamentals do not justify a lasting breakout. The bank highlights a modest surplus in the physical market today. Therefore, it expects consolidation as speculative flows recede. Investors should watch inventories and import premiums closely.

Goldman still sees solid support around $10,000–11,000/t. The range reflects firm demand outside the US and improving China views. However, any surge above that band should be short-lived. Positioning is “stretched” at the five-year 99th percentile on LME. As a result, tactical risk increases for long positions.

Visible inventories have risen by about 700,000t this year. The stock build is led by regions outside the US. Meanwhile, the market sits in a visible surplus near 400,000t year to date. Therefore, price gains lack confirmation from stock draws. History shows rallies fade without inventory tightness.

Mine disruptions amplified the bullish narrative this quarter. Headlines from Grasberg, El Teniente, and Kamoa-Kakula lifted sentiment. However, Goldman estimates net tightening is smaller than headlines suggest. Disrupted capacity near 700,000 t/yr nets to ~200,000t by 2026. Allowances and recoveries offset a large portion of losses.

Chinese demand signals have cooled from mid-year highs. China’s apparent consumption fell 2% year over year in September. Earlier quarters posted stronger gains near 15%. Meanwhile, cathode import premiums moderated to ~$40/t. Premiums remain positive but down from May’s $110/t. Therefore, China’s impulse looks mixed near term.

Speculative behavior mirrors the 2024 pattern. A softer dollar and outages pulled investors back in. Open interest on Comex remains below 2024 peaks. That leaves some room for additional inflows. However, Goldman expects any extra push to be brief. Positioning could unwind as data confirm surplus.

Global refined output has grown by 4% year to date. Output may dip about 2% year over year in the fourth quarter. Weakness in Chile contrasts with growth in the DRC. DRC refined production rose 13% year over year in July. Higher prices also mobilized more global scrap supply. Consequently, refined availability remains resilient.

Goldman raised its 2026 copper forecast to $10,500/t. The revision acknowledges tighter balances than previously expected. However, the bank still sees a modest surplus then. Prices should hover inside $10,000–11,000/t through early 2026. As speculative length fades, momentum should normalize. Therefore, risk-reward now favors patience and discipline.

Macro factors still matter for near-term volatility. A weaker dollar could extend the rally temporarily. Comex-LME arbitrage may pull metal into the US. Additional inflows could lift prices above current highs. However, Goldman expects reversals as positioning normalizes. Without stock declines, new records appear fragile.

Producers should manage hedging with measured triggers. Buyers should ladder coverage while spreads remain favorable. Traders should track China semis shipments and SHFE-LME signals. Meanwhile, watch smelter maintenance and TC/RCs for tightness cues. Ultimately, inventory trends will confirm or deny the squeeze story.

Positioning, Inventories, and Supply: Why the Peak Looks Close

Goldman’s thesis rests on stretched investor positioning today. LME exposure stands near the five-year 99th percentile. Therefore, marginal buyers face crowding risk. Visible inventories continue to climb across key hubs. Stock builds contradict a classic shortage narrative. As a result, upside looks increasingly tactical.

Supply disruptions appear less binding than headlines imply. Net tightening to 2026 balances is near 200,000t. Allowances, ramp-ups, and recoveries offset outages. Refined output growth cushions temporary shortfalls. Scrap flows add elasticity as prices rise. Therefore, sustained deficit claims seem premature.

China’s Demand Pulse and Price Path into 2026

China remains the largest swing factor for copper demand. Recent data show a moderation from mid-year strength. Import premiums eased, signaling reduced physical tightness. Ex-China semis shipments have been flat since March. Therefore, the near-term demand impulse looks softer.

Goldman’s base case anchors prices inside $10,000–11,000/t. Short-term spikes may occur on fresh inflows. However, medium-term prices should revert as length unwinds. Inventories and spreads will guide that reversion timing. Consequently, 2026 averages near $10,500/t look reasonable.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Positioning, not panic scarcity, explains the latest leg higher. Unless visible stocks fall decisively, momentum should cool into 2026. We would fade extreme strength and favor range strategies around $10,000–11,000/t.

Mueller Industries Forecasts Favorable Copper Market as Prices Rise

Mueller Industries

Mueller Industries, a leading US-based copper manufacturer, remains optimistic about the future of the copper market. The Tennessee-based company anticipates that declining interest rates, moderating inflation, and post-election stability will create a more favorable market environment.

Copper Prices and Sales Growth

Copper prices on the Comex market averaged $4.23/lb in the third quarter, marking a 12% year-on-year increase. This price surge contributed significantly to Mueller's revenue growth, alongside the benefits of its recent acquisition of Elkhart Products.

• Piping Systems: Sales rose to $688 million, up from $638 million in the same period last year.
• Industrial Metals: Sales surged to $238 million, a notable increase from $141 million.
• Climate Segment: Revenue improved slightly to $128 million, compared to $120 million a year ago.

Strategic Expansion and Recovery

Mueller's acquisition of Elkhart, a brass parts supplier, in August was a strategic move to expand its copper operations. This acquisition follows the tornado damage sustained by Mueller’s Covington, Tennessee factory, demonstrating the company’s resilience and focus on operational growth.

Strong Financial Performance

Mueller reported $167 million in profits on $998 million in sales during the third quarter, a significant improvement compared to the $133 million profit on $820 million in sales during the same period in 2023.

Positive Outlook

With copper prices stabilizing and market conditions improving, Mueller is well-positioned to capitalize on growing demand for copper products across various sectors, including piping systems and industrial metals. The company’s strategic acquisitions and operational resilience continue to drive growth in a competitive market.

Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook reshape markets as PGMs rally

Nornickel

Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook signals a split market for base and precious metals. Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook highlights persistent nickel oversupply, but tighter copper after 2025. Meanwhile, the company points to a strong PGM rebound driven by investment flows.

Nickel surplus persists as Indonesian supply keeps rising

Indonesian supply growth keeps the nickel market in structural surplus. Nornickel expects global nickel output at 3.86mn t in 2025 and 4.1mn t in 2026. Indonesia accounts for more than 66% of total production in that outlook.

Demand rises, but it still trails supply growth. Nornickel sees demand at 3.62mn t in 2025 and 3.83mn t in 2026. As a result, the market could post a surplus above 200,000t in both years.

Prices stay near marginal conversion costs for class 1 material. LME three-month nickel traded around $15,000/t for much of the past 18 months. However, prices fell to $14,322.50/t in the latest session cited by Nornickel.

Copper tightens after 2025 as concentrates stay constrained and PGMs rebound

Copper tightness could intensify after 2025 as concentrate deficits deepen. Nornickel notes copper prices rose more than 30% through 2025 and broke above $11,500/t by early December. Meanwhile, Comex–LME arbitrage pulled metal into the US and tightened availability elsewhere.

Mine disruptions keep concentrate supply under pressure. Nornickel expects mined copper output at 23.4mn t in 2025 and 23.8mn t in 2026. Therefore, treatment charges stay stressed, with spot TCs cited around -$40/t.

Refined copper balances look fragile in 2025 and tighter in 2026. Nornickel projects refined supply at 27.7mn t versus demand at 27.6mn t in 2025. As a result, 2026 could slip into a small deficit at 28.3mn t supply and 28.4mn t demand.

PGM prices rebounded as investors returned after gold’s surge. Platinum rose about 20% to around $1,650/oz, while palladium climbed about 38% to around $1,550/oz. Meanwhile, supply disruptions and underinvestment keep primary supply trending lower.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook reinforces a two-speed metals cycle for 2026 planning. Nickel needs production restraint, not demand hope, to rebalance. Therefore, copper and PGMs may carry the tighter risk premium across industrial supply chains.

Metal Futures Plunge Amid Rising Global Trade Tensions

LME

New US Tariffs and China's Retaliatory Measures Drive Sell-Off in Base Metals

Base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a significant decline on Friday as the global trade environment became more volatile. The new US tariffs and China’s retaliatory actions sparked concerns about a potential full-scale trade war and its implications for global economic growth. This turmoil led to a sharp sell-off not only in metals but also in global equities, oil prices, and the wider commodities market.

Market Reactions to US-China Trade Tensions

On April 5, 2025, the LME base metals complex dropped sharply, reflecting fears over a global economic slowdown. LME-traded base metals, although not directly impacted by the new tariffs, suffered as the potential growth impact on industries that rely on industrial metals became apparent. Investors flocked to safe-haven assets, particularly government bonds and gold, as fears of a global recession intensified.

China responded to the US tariffs by imposing a 34% reciprocal tariff on all US imports, effective from April 10, 2025. Additionally, China announced measures including restrictions on rare earth exports and an investigation into DuPont’s Chinese subsidiary. These retaliatory actions further fueled concerns of escalating tensions between the two largest economies.

Sharp Declines in Key Base Metals

The turmoil hit key metals hard, with copper suffering a 5.74% drop on the LME, reaching $8,900 per metric tonne, a three-month low. Similarly, Comex copper fell by 8.83% to $4.402 per pound. Nickel, aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin all saw significant losses, with the three-month LME nickel dropping 3.56%, aluminum falling 2.84%, and zinc slipping 2.84%. The declines reflected the broader uncertainty surrounding global trade and the implications for demand in sectors reliant on industrial metals.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index weakened to 102.020, reflecting broader market instability. Despite a stronger-than-expected US employment report, the US dollar remained near its six-month low, further contributing to market volatility.

Global Equities and Oil Prices Under Pressure

Global equities mirrored the downturn in metals, with the S&P 500 losing nearly 5% by midday, marking its lowest point since last May. Stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and Europe were also significantly impacted, with Japan’s Topix falling 4.5%, and the Stoxx Europe 600 index closing 5.1% lower.

Oil markets also felt the pressure, with Brent crude dropping by 6.8% to $69.86 per barrel, and WTI falling by as much as 7.9% to $61.66 per barrel. The sharp drop in oil prices further compounded concerns of an economic slowdown, which has sent shockwaves through global markets.

US Copper Scrap Exports Continue to Climb in June, Despite Mixed Performance Across Categories

U.S. copper scrap exports sustained their upward momentum in June, marking an 8 percent increase compared to the same period last year. This growth, driven by heightened shipments of bare bright and #2 copper, managed to offset a decline in #1 copper exports.

In total, copper scrap exports for June reached 22,573 metric tonnes, up from 20,850 metric tonnes in June 2023. This marks the eighth consecutive month of year-over-year growth in the sector. Over the first half of 2024, U.S. copper scrap exports totaled 156,756 metric tonnes, reflecting a 22 percent increase compared to the first half of the previous year.

The volume of bare bright scrap exports, although rising 3 percent from the previous year to 5,637 metric tonnes, represented the lowest monthly total in the past year due to a significant 13 percent drop in shipments to China. In contrast, exports of #1 copper scrap fell sharply by 17 percent to 7,033 metric tonnes, with four Asian countries reducing their import volumes.

Meanwhile, #2 copper scrap exports saw a robust 44 percent surge to 9,903 metric tonnes, largely driven by increased demand from China and Malaysia.

On the pricing front, Comex copper for June averaged $4.50 per pound, an increase of 70 cents per pound from June 2023. However, this was the lowest monthly average since April, as the U.S. dollar gained strength during the month. As a result, consumers faced an average year-over-year cost increase of 69 cents per pound.

Despite the higher prices, market activity was slower than in May, with sellers indicating that while buyers could be found, the terms were increasingly favorable to the buyers. Hopes that China would introduce stimulus measures in July to bolster its property market and boost demand for copper ultimately proved unfounded, as the country refrained from injecting funds into its struggling economy.

Grupo Mexico Reports Strong 3Q Earnings Boosted by Copper Production and Strong Prices

Grupo Mexico

Grupo Mexico, a prominent conglomerate with interests in mining, rail, and infrastructure, has reported a significant increase in earnings for the third quarter of 2024, driven by higher copper production and robust sales prices.

The company produced 280,900 metric tonnes (t) of copper in Q3 2024, marking a 10.6% increase from the same period last year. Copper sales also saw an 8.2% rise, reaching 275,070t. This surge in production and sales comes as copper prices continue to climb. The average copper price for the quarter was $4.23 per pound, up 12.2% from the previous year, according to Comex data.

Strong Mining Division Performance

Grupo Mexico's mining division, represented by its subsidiary Americas Mining, experienced a strong performance with a 17.8% increase in sales, reaching $3.2 billion. Profits for the division surged by 55%, totaling $864 million. Despite a rise in the cost of sales (up 5.4% to $1.4 billion), the company’s profit margins remained robust.

The company’s overall profits reached $1 billion for the quarter, a 44% year-over-year increase, with revenues climbing 13.4% to $4.13 billion.

Key Mining Operations

The increase in copper output can be attributed to stronger production from Grupo Mexico’s mining operations in Peru and Mexico, particularly at the Toquepala, Buenavista, Cuajone, and Caridad mines. These mines played a crucial role in boosting the company's copper yield.

"Grupo Mexico was able to benefit from a favorable copper price environment which, combined with excellent production levels and stringent cost control, translated into excellent financial results, particularly from the mining division," the company stated.

Zinc and Molybdenum Performance

Grupo Mexico also saw significant improvements in zinc and molybdenum production during the quarter. Zinc production nearly doubled, reaching 31,080t, driven by the Buenavista Zinc concentrator. Zinc sales also rose by 50%, amounting to 37,355t. Zinc prices were up 14.5%, averaging $1.26 per pound in Q3.

Molybdenum production rose by 6%, reaching 7,270t, while sales saw a 5.6% increase to 7,326t.

Americas Mining and Global Expansion

The Americas Mining division, a key subsidiary of Grupo Mexico, oversees operations through Southern Copper in Mexico and Peru, as well as Asarco in the United States. These subsidiaries have been critical to the company’s solid performance in Q3 2024.

Grupo Mexico's diverse mining operations, strict cost controls, and favorable commodity prices have positioned the company for continued growth in the coming quarters.

Grupo Mexico Boosts Copper and Zinc Output in Q4, Plans $600mn 2025 Investment

Grupo Mexico

Buenavista Expansion and Strong Prices Lift Revenues Despite Toquepala Setback

Grupo Mexico increased its copper and zinc production in the fourth quarter of 2024, supported by operational gains at its Buenavista, Cuajone, and IMMSA units. Copper output reached 266,400 metric tonnes (t), up slightly from 264,300t in Q4 2023, while zinc production more than doubled, rising to 43,150t from 16,930t a year earlier.

Copper production growth was driven by a 12% increase at the Buenavista mine, complemented by moderate gains at IMMSA (+3.5%) and Cuajone (+2.1%). However, these increases were partially offset by an 11.4% decline at the Toquepala mine in Peru. Despite mixed volumes, copper sales rose by 2.2% to 253,250t, supported by a 13.4% year-on-year price gain to $4.22/lb, based on Comex data.

Zinc Production Surges with Buenavista Launch and Santa Barbara Growth

The standout performance in Q4 came from zinc. Grupo Mexico more than doubled zinc production following the start-up of its Buenavista zinc operation and improved throughput at Santa Barbara. Sales volumes surged by over 59% to 42,119t. The fourth-quarter average zinc price also increased by 22.1% to $1.38/lb, based on LME figures.

Molybdenum output fell slightly to 6,994t due to weaker performance at Caridad and Toquepala, with sales also down 2.1% to 7,008t. Despite this, Grupo Mexico’s mining division, operated under Americas Mining Corporation, reported Q4 revenues of $2.97bn, up 17.4%, while profit surged by 51.5% to $673mn.

2025 Capital Plan Targets Modernization, Tailings Efficiency, and Greenfield Growth

Grupo Mexico plans to invest over $600mn across its mining operations in 2025. Roughly half will fund modernization of existing mines and metallurgical facilities, while 31% will go toward improving water and tailings efficiency. The remaining investments will support long-term growth projects, including a new 120,000t/yr copper SX-EW plant in Arequipa, Peru. Construction is scheduled to start in 2025, with operations expected by 2027.

In total, the conglomerate’s fourth-quarter profit rose by 19% to $757mn, with revenues climbing 12.8% to $3.85bn. Grupo Mexico operates across mining, rail, and infrastructure sectors, with mining activities led by Southern Copper in Mexico and Peru, and Asarco in the United States.

Peru boosts Grupo Mexico's 2Q Cu, Zn output

Mining and transport conglomerate Grupo Mexico boosted its copper production in the second quarter this year, driven by increases in its Peruvian and Mexican operations.

The company produced 270,750 metric tonnes (t) of copper in the second quarter, up by 4.7pc from the year earlier period. The firm produced 538,740t in the first half, a 5.3pc increase from the same period in 2023.

The increase reflects increased copper production in Peru, as well as higher output at its Buenavista zinc concentrator in Mexico.

"Higher [copper] production in Mexico was partially offset by a decrease in [Arizona-based US subsidiary] Asarco's production," Grupo Mexico said.

Total copper sales in the quarter increased by 2.5pc to 260,050t from a year earlier.

The company resumed its Tia Maria copper project in Peru in July this year and said it expects to produce 120,000 t/yr of solvent extraction and electrowinning copper cathodes when it starts operations in 2027.

The company produced 29,420t of zinc in the second quarter, up by nearly 71pc on the year, also driven by the Buenavista Zinc concentrator. Zinc sales rose by 78pc to 39,000t.

Molybdenum production in the second quarter rose by almost 21pc to 7,655t from the prior-year period, while sales increased by 21pc to 7,640t.

The production and sales hikes came with higher average prices for the metals, the company also said.

Average zinc prices of $1.29/lb in the second quarter were up by 12pc from the same three-month span in 2023, based on London Metal Exchange numbers.

The average copper price of $4.55/lb in the second quarter was 18pc higher than the prior-year period, according to Comex figures cited by Grupo Mexico.

Second quarter total profits rose by nearly 60pc to $1.06bn on the year, with revenues increasing by 27.4pc to $4.4bn in the same period.

Global Refined Copper Surplus Expands as Smelter Output Outpaces Demand

Copper

Global refined copper surplus widened sharply in 2025 as refined production grew faster than consumption despite persistent mine disruptions. The International Copper Study Group reported a preliminary surplus of 380,000t, up from 69,000t in 2024, signaling a looser refined market balance than many copper buyers expected.

The global refined copper surplus reached 437,000t after adjusting for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks. This reflected strong refined production growth, particularly in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo, even as mine supply growth remained constrained by operational incidents, lower grades, and major disruptions at key assets.

World refined copper production rose by 4.2pc to 28.54mn t in 2025. Primary output increased by 3.9pc, while secondary production from scrap rose by 5.8pc. The expansion shows that smelting, refining, and recycling capacity can continue lifting refined supply even when mine growth remains limited.

China and the DRC Drive Refined Copper Output Growth

China and the DRC were the main drivers of refined copper production growth in 2025. Together, they account for around 57pc of global refined output and recorded combined growth of about 9pc. Excluding these two countries, world refined production fell by around 1.8pc, showing how concentrated refined copper growth has become.

Asia outside China faced weaker production. Output fell by 3.7pc as maintenance shutdowns in Japan reduced the country’s production by 8.2pc and the Pasar refinery in the Philippines closed. Indonesia added new capacity through the Amman and Manyar smelters, but operational issues and disruptions linked to Grasberg limited the impact.

Chile also weighed on refined supply outside the main growth centres. Refined copper production fell by 10pc, with electrolytic output from concentrates down 16pc amid maintenance shutdowns. SX-EW production also declined by 6.8pc, reinforcing the pressure on one of the world’s most important copper-producing countries.

Mine Disruptions Keep Supply Risk Alive Despite Higher Inventories

Mine production increased by only around 1pc to 23.13mn t in 2025. Concentrate output was broadly flat, while SX-EW output rose by 3pc. New projects supported growth, but lower grades and operational disruptions prevented a stronger mine-side recovery.

Major incidents at Kamoa and Grasberg were especially important. Kamoa’s output fell after a seismic incident, while Indonesian mine production dropped by around 43pc because of lower Batu Hijau output, Grasberg maintenance, and the mud rush incident at Grasberg. These events show why copper supply risk remains high even when refined inventories are rising.

Consumption also grew, but not fast enough to absorb new refined supply. World apparent refined copper usage rose by about 3pc to 28.16mn t. Chinese apparent demand increased by around 4pc, but net refined imports fell by 15pc as imports declined and exports jumped. Outside China, growth in parts of Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa offset weakness in the EU and Japan.

The global refined copper surplus became more visible late in the year. December refined production reached 2.43mn t, while usage was 2.26mn t, creating a monthly surplus of 173,000t. Global refined stocks rose to 1.776mn t at year-end, while exchange stocks at the LME, Comex, and SHFE reached 933,641t at the end of January 2026, the highest level since September 2003.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The global refined copper surplus does not remove copper’s long-term supply challenge, but it changes the near-term market psychology. Copper now faces a split reality: refined metal looks looser, while mine disruptions still threaten the concentrate pipeline behind future supply.

Refined Copper Surplus Widens as Global Output Outpaces Demand

Copper

The refined copper surplus widened sharply in January-November 2025 as supply growth outpaced demand growth. ICSG estimated a refined copper surplus of 206,000t during the period. That compared with a surplus of 105,000t a year earlier. Moreover, the refined copper surplus reached about 273,000t after adjusting for higher Chinese bonded stocks.

Global copper mine production increased, but operational limits remained clear. Mine output rose by 1pc to 21.08mn t in the first 11 months. However, lower ore grades and major disruptions capped stronger gains. Problems at Kamoa and Grasberg highlighted how vulnerable mine supply remains.

Refined output expanded faster than mine supply and widened the market imbalance. Global refined copper production rose by 4.2pc to 26.11mn t. Primary refined output and secondary refined production both increased. As a result, more metal reached the market than end users absorbed.

Global Refined Copper Production Growth Was Uneven

China and the DRC drove most of the refining increase. Together, they represented about 57pc of global refined production. Their combined output rose by around 9pc. Meanwhile, refined production outside those two countries declined by about 1.7pc.

Regional performance showed a divided market. Indian refined copper production rose by 21pc on better operating rates. Indonesia added new smelting capacity, but constraints limited output growth. By contrast, Chilean refined copper production fell by 11pc, while Japan declined by 7.3pc.

Mine supply also varied widely by region. Peru posted stronger growth on higher output from major mines. The DRC also delivered solid expansion. However, Chile declined, and Indonesia dropped sharply because of mine sequencing, maintenance, and the Grasberg mud rush.

Copper Stocks Signal a Looser Market Balance

Apparent refined copper usage still increased, but not enough to absorb rising supply. World apparent usage rose by 4pc to 25.90mn t. Chinese demand increased by around 5.5pc and accounted for about 58pc of global usage. Outside China, demand rose only modestly.

The stock build reinforced the refined copper surplus story. World refined copper stocks reached 1.59mn t at the end of November 2025. That was up from 1.39mn t a year earlier. Therefore, inventories confirmed that supply growth exceeded real consumption.

Exchange data showed the same trend. Stocks across major exchanges totalled 744,115t at the end of December. That marked a 73pc year-on-year increase. London Metal Exchange inventories fell, but Comex and Shanghai stocks rose sharply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The copper market is not facing a supply collapse. Instead, it is showing a growing disconnect between expanding refined output and slower demand absorption. If inventories keep rising, the refined copper surplus could pressure margins across miners, smelters, and traders in 2026.

Goldman Sachs Raises Copper Price Forecast for 2H25

Goldman Sachs

Supply shortages and Section 232 probe drive outlook

Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for the second half of 2025, citing tightening inventories and ongoing US trade policy uncertainty. The bank now expects the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price to average $9,890/t, up from its earlier estimate of $9,140/t. Prices are forecast to peak at $10,050/t in August before easing to $9,700/t by December, as the Section 232 investigation continues to influence trade flows.

Copper inventories fall as US imports surge

On-warrant LME warehouse stocks have dropped by 77pc since January, with levels now at 57,650t. Goldman Sachs highlighted that the US has already over-imported about 400,000t of copper this year, widening the spread between Comex and LME prices. The firm expects copper inflows into the US to continue until September, when the investigation may impose a 25pc tariff on US copper imports.

Despite record imports, Goldman Sachs projects a global copper surplus of 105,000t for 2025. The US surplus of 400,000t will be partly offset by a 100,000t deficit in China and a 200,000t deficit in other regions. This dynamic underscores how regional trade disruptions are reshaping global copper flows.

Longer-term copper market expectations

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2026 copper price forecast to $10,000/t, down from $10,170/t. The bank now expects a smaller 55,000t deficit in 2026, compared with the earlier estimate of 120,000t. While medium-term demand remains resilient from electrification and energy transition sectors, the supply-demand balance will hinge on trade barriers, production ramp-ups, and Chinese market behavior.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Goldman Sachs’ revised copper price forecast highlights the growing role of geopolitics in shaping commodity markets. With US tariffs looming and Chinese deficits persisting, copper prices may see continued volatility despite the overall global surplus. Investors and producers alike must prepare for policy-driven disruptions that increasingly rival fundamentals in setting market direction.

Aluminum Four-Year High Signals Rising Energy and Metals Market Stress

Aluminum Bar

Aluminum four-year high became the clearest metals market signal on Monday as Middle East tensions intensified. LME three-month aluminum rose 2.5pc to $3,571/t, its highest level since March 2022. Rising oil prices and supply concerns pushed traders back into the market. As a result, aluminum four-year high now reflects both physical stress and geopolitical fear.

This matters because aluminum is highly exposed to energy costs and regional supply disruption. Brent crude moved back above $100/bl after the US announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Around 20pc of global oil and LNG supply passes through Hormuz. Therefore, LME aluminum prices are now reacting to energy risk as much as metal fundamentals.

The move also comes with visible stock changes. On-warrant aluminum inventories in LME warehouses jumped by a third to 354,450t after nearly 90,000t was rewarranted. That likely reflects traders repositioning physical units ahead of tighter conditions. Consequently, aluminum four-year high is being reinforced by both sentiment and inventory behavior.

Oil-Driven Metal Rally Is Lifting Copper and Nickel Too

Oil-driven metal rally is not limited to aluminum. Three-month copper rose 1pc to $12,855/t, while the next active Comex copper contract climbed 1.8pc to $5.99/lb. Three-month nickel also gained 2.6pc to $17,650/t. As a result, Middle East metals market risk is now lifting the broader complex.

Copper has its own support as well. Chinese smelters raised refined copper output in the first quarter by more than 7pc on the year. Higher sulphuric acid byproduct prices helped offset collapsing treatment and refining charges. Therefore, copper is being supported by both financial momentum and resilient Chinese production.

Nickel also benefited from the wider risk-on move in metals. Lead and zinc were almost unchanged, while tin was the only base metal to fall on the day. That contrast shows the market is rewarding metals with stronger geopolitical and speculative sensitivity. Meanwhile, aluminum remains the strongest headline performer.

Demand Signals Still Look Mixed Beneath the Price Rally

Demand signals remain mixed even as prices rise. Japan’s primary aluminum imports fell 3.4pc year on year and 16.8pc month on month in February. Local shipments of extrusions, flat rolled products, and foil also declined. Therefore, the aluminum four-year high is not being driven by strong downstream demand.

This divergence matters for the next phase of the market. Prices are rising because energy insecurity and supply risk are dominating near-term trade. However, weak physical demand in some regions may limit how far the rally can run without new disruption. As a result, Middle East metals market risk is overpowering softer industrial demand for now.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This rally is telling the market one clear thing: energy shocks still move metals fast. Aluminum is leading because it sits closest to power costs and regional supply risk. If oil stays above $100 and Hormuz remains unstable, the metals complex may keep pricing geopolitics ahead of demand fundamentals.