Global Refined Copper Surplus Expands as Smelter Output Outpaces Demand

Copper

Global refined copper surplus widened sharply in 2025 as refined production grew faster than consumption despite persistent mine disruptions. The International Copper Study Group reported a preliminary surplus of 380,000t, up from 69,000t in 2024, signaling a looser refined market balance than many copper buyers expected.

The global refined copper surplus reached 437,000t after adjusting for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks. This reflected strong refined production growth, particularly in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo, even as mine supply growth remained constrained by operational incidents, lower grades, and major disruptions at key assets.

World refined copper production rose by 4.2pc to 28.54mn t in 2025. Primary output increased by 3.9pc, while secondary production from scrap rose by 5.8pc. The expansion shows that smelting, refining, and recycling capacity can continue lifting refined supply even when mine growth remains limited.

China and the DRC Drive Refined Copper Output Growth

China and the DRC were the main drivers of refined copper production growth in 2025. Together, they account for around 57pc of global refined output and recorded combined growth of about 9pc. Excluding these two countries, world refined production fell by around 1.8pc, showing how concentrated refined copper growth has become.

Asia outside China faced weaker production. Output fell by 3.7pc as maintenance shutdowns in Japan reduced the country’s production by 8.2pc and the Pasar refinery in the Philippines closed. Indonesia added new capacity through the Amman and Manyar smelters, but operational issues and disruptions linked to Grasberg limited the impact.

Chile also weighed on refined supply outside the main growth centres. Refined copper production fell by 10pc, with electrolytic output from concentrates down 16pc amid maintenance shutdowns. SX-EW production also declined by 6.8pc, reinforcing the pressure on one of the world’s most important copper-producing countries.

Mine Disruptions Keep Supply Risk Alive Despite Higher Inventories

Mine production increased by only around 1pc to 23.13mn t in 2025. Concentrate output was broadly flat, while SX-EW output rose by 3pc. New projects supported growth, but lower grades and operational disruptions prevented a stronger mine-side recovery.

Major incidents at Kamoa and Grasberg were especially important. Kamoa’s output fell after a seismic incident, while Indonesian mine production dropped by around 43pc because of lower Batu Hijau output, Grasberg maintenance, and the mud rush incident at Grasberg. These events show why copper supply risk remains high even when refined inventories are rising.

Consumption also grew, but not fast enough to absorb new refined supply. World apparent refined copper usage rose by about 3pc to 28.16mn t. Chinese apparent demand increased by around 4pc, but net refined imports fell by 15pc as imports declined and exports jumped. Outside China, growth in parts of Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa offset weakness in the EU and Japan.

The global refined copper surplus became more visible late in the year. December refined production reached 2.43mn t, while usage was 2.26mn t, creating a monthly surplus of 173,000t. Global refined stocks rose to 1.776mn t at year-end, while exchange stocks at the LME, Comex, and SHFE reached 933,641t at the end of January 2026, the highest level since September 2003.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The global refined copper surplus does not remove copper’s long-term supply challenge, but it changes the near-term market psychology. Copper now faces a split reality: refined metal looks looser, while mine disruptions still threaten the concentrate pipeline behind future supply.