Quota System Likely for DRC Cobalt Export Restart Amid Rising Global Prices

DRC cobalt

Market Expects DRC to Shift From Export Ban to Cobalt Quotas

The Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to transition from a cobalt export ban to a quota-based system, as global prices rise and domestic revenues remain frozen. This policy shift is emerging as the most probable path forward, according to market participants attending the Cobalt Institute’s annual conference in Singapore.

The Focus Keyphrase "DRC cobalt export quotas" has become central to ongoing discussions. Since the DRC imposed a blanket cobalt export ban in February, cobalt hydroxide prices have nearly doubled. However, no royalties have flowed into the Congolese treasury, prompting calls for a more dynamic system that maintains pricing leverage while restoring revenue.

Traders suggest the decision is being driven directly by Kinshasa and the presidential office, not just Gecamines. The political goal appears to be the establishment of a long-term supply management system, similar to OPEC’s oil model, to prevent global oversupply and capture more value for the DRC.

Stockpiles Shrinking as Market Braces for Supply Squeeze

Despite record production by CMOC (30,000t) and Glencore (9,500t) in Q1, the export halt has created dislocation. Cobalt hydroxide stocks are building up within the DRC, while inventories outside the country are being depleted. Estimates put global stockpiles at 50,000–70,000t, but availability varies by holder and strategy.

Some traders are withholding shipments to capitalize on rising prices, while others warn of a looming shortage. By August, inventories in China could be critically low, leading to what one source described as a “crunch scenario” if no new material enters the pipeline.

The pressure is already visible in spot markets: Chinese hydroxide material trades at $15–16/lb, western standard at $17–18/lb, and alloy grade cobalt at $19–20/lb, depending on region and grade.

Export Enforcement Signals Shift to Strategic Resource Governance

The DRC’s export ban is being strictly enforced, with military-backed customs units now operating at Kasumbalesa, the country’s primary cobalt export route to Zambia. The sophisticated level of enforcement has convinced many in the market that a structured quota system is the inevitable next step.

Meanwhile, comparisons are being drawn with Indonesia’s nickel quota system, although differences in market structure mean the analogy is not perfect. Still, the strategic intent is clear: the DRC is asserting greater control over its cobalt exports to maximize pricing power and domestic benefit.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The move toward DRC cobalt export quotas reflects a broader trend: resource-rich nations are reclaiming leverage in critical mineral supply chains. As global cobalt demand grows, especially for EV batteries and aerospace alloys, market players must prepare for a more politically managed and price-sensitive landscape. The DRC’s emerging strategy could become a blueprint for other producers.

IXM cobalt force majeure highlights DRC export ban risks

IXM cobalt

Switzerland-based IXM has declared force majeure on its cobalt deliveries from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The announcement follows the DRC government’s decision to extend its cobalt export ban until September. This IXM cobalt force majeure underscores the rising risks in global cobalt supply chains.

Export ban pressures cobalt markets

The DRC cobalt export ban, first enacted in February, was designed to stabilize prices amid oversupply. However, its extension has made it “legally and practically impossible” for IXM suppliers, including Tenke Fungurume Mining and Kisanfu Mining, to ship material. IXM, owned by China Molybdenum (CMOC), said it could no longer meet customer obligations. As a result, no forward deliveries are guaranteed.

Market uncertainty and supply chain risks

The IXM cobalt force majeure does not halt mining production but blocks exports, which could lead to significant stockpiling inside the DRC. Market participants warn that inventories of intermediate products could be exhausted by March if the ban continues. CMOC, the world’s largest cobalt producer, aims to deliver 100,000–120,000t of cobalt this year, but much of it may never reach international buyers.

IXM global head of refined metal Tom Mackay called for “responsibility and certainty” in addressing the ban, reflecting industry frustration over the lack of clarity. The IXM cobalt force majeure highlights the vulnerability of downstream industries — from EV battery makers to aerospace suppliers — to geopolitical and regulatory shocks in the DRC, which controls the bulk of global cobalt output.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The IXM cobalt force majeure represents a structural stress point in critical minerals supply chains. With the DRC holding overwhelming cobalt dominance, the extension of its export ban will likely intensify calls for diversification of supply sources and acceleration of recycling projects in North America, Europe, and Asia.

Indonesian Cobalt Production Capacity Set to Double by 2027

Indonesian Cobalt

Indonesian cobalt production capacity will more than double to 114,000 tonnes by 2027 from 55,000 tonnes in 2024, according to National Economic Council member Septian Hario Seto. The expansion comes from Indonesia's high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) operations, which process nickel laterite ores to extract both nickel and cobalt. However, Indonesian cobalt production capacity growth will likely plateau after 2027 due to rising project costs and slower-than-expected nickel consumption growth.

HPAL Operations Drive Cobalt Output Growth Despite Rising Costs

Indonesia's cobalt capacity expansion relies heavily on HPAL technology, which extracts cobalt as a byproduct of nickel processing operations. China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Xu Aidong confirmed that capacity increases will probably stabilize given mounting economic pressures. Meanwhile, rising sulfur prices used in hydrometallurgical production lines are increasing HPAL project costs significantly.

Mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production maintains 30-40% profit margins even with nickel prices around $15,000 per tonne, partly due to cobalt content value. Indonesia exported nearly 1.56 million tonnes of MHP last year, with cobalt exports reaching approximately 44,350 tonnes. Therefore, Indonesian cobalt production remains economically viable despite commodity price volatility.

DRC Export Ban Creates Market Uncertainty and Technology Shifts

The Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export ban threatens to drive prices higher while potentially reducing long-term cobalt demand through technology adaptation. Seto warned that sustained export restrictions could backfire by accelerating battery chemistry changes to reduce cobalt content. As a result, the industry witnessed massive adoption of nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) 811 technology during 2017-2018 price spikes.

Indonesia processes MHP directly into precursors without crystallizing nickel sulfate first, streamlining production efficiency and reducing costs. The country views cobalt as inseparable from nickel production rather than an independent mineral resource. However, Indonesia recognizes its responsibility as a major producer to ensure reliable global supply chains.

Seto emphasized that Indonesia's position on nickel mirrors the DRC's influence on cobalt markets, requiring careful market management. Major producers must balance supply control with market reliability to avoid being perceived as unreliable suppliers. Consequently, both countries face pressure to maintain sufficient global supply while maximizing domestic value addition.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia's strategic approach to cobalt as a nickel byproduct positions the country advantageously in global battery supply chains while the DRC's export restrictions create market uncertainty. The doubling of Indonesian cobalt production capacity by 2027 could provide crucial supply diversification for battery manufacturers seeking alternatives to DRC sources, though technology shifts toward lower-cobalt chemistries may limit long-term demand growth.

DRC Suspends Cobalt Exports for Four Months to Address Global Oversupply

DRC

Temporary Export Ban Aims to Support Falling Cobalt Prices

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world’s largest cobalt producer, will halt all cobalt exports for four months. The decision, announced by mineral markets regulator Arecoms, seeks to counter falling cobalt prices driven by global oversupply. The suspension will apply to all cobalt exported from the DRC, regardless of whether it is produced by industrial, semi-industrial, or artisanal mining.

Market Skepticism and Past Precedents

Cobalt prices have declined steadily since 2022, mainly due to significant production growth in the DRC. China’s CMOC, now a major global copper and cobalt producer, has notably expanded its operations. Despite the new ban, many market participants remain cautious. The DRC has previously announced export bans that were either not enforced or only partially implemented. For now, copper exports will continue as usual, making the effectiveness of the new ban uncertain.

Industry Reactions and Supply Chain Risks

Traders warn that such sudden policy changes damage the DRC’s reputation as a reliable cobalt source. Concentrated supply from one country has discouraged investment in alternative cobalt sources. Industry stakeholders say the unpredictability of export restrictions increases risk across the global battery and metals supply chain.

Glencore Q1 Cobalt and Copper Production Shows Divergent Trends in Volatile Market

Cobalt

Cobalt Output Soars While Copper and Nickel Face Steep Declines

Glencore Q1 cobalt and copper production revealed mixed results, highlighting the challenges of commodity volatility and mine-specific dynamics. The company’s cobalt output surged 44% year-on-year to 9,500 tonnes, driven by improved grades at its Mutanda mine in the DRC. In contrast, copper production dropped 30% to 167,900 tonnes due to lower grades and recovery rates at Chilean operations like Collahuasi and Antapaccay.

Zinc Rises, Nickel and Ferro-Chrome Falter

Meanwhile, nickel production fell 21% to 18,800 tonnes, largely due to the Koniambo mine transition in New Caledonia. On the positive side, zinc production rose 4% to 213,600 tonnes, supported by strong output from Antamina in Peru and Australian operations. Ferro-chrome production declined 7%, with Glencore citing market-driven management decisions and high energy costs in South Africa.

Cobalt Supply Tightness and Copper Recovery Outlook

The Q1 performance positions Glencore to benefit from tight cobalt supply, especially following the DRC’s export suspension that lifted China’s cobalt hydroxide prices. However, copper’s poor start may weigh on H1 earnings, though CEO Gary Nagle anticipates a rebound in output later in the year. Glencore maintained full-year guidance for all core metals, signaling confidence in operational recovery despite short-term setbacks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The latest Glencore Q1 cobalt and copper production figures reflect a market caught between supply shocks and operational setbacks. While cobalt shows strength amid geopolitical friction, copper’s rebound will be crucial for sustaining Glencore’s broader portfolio performance in 2024.

China’s Cobalt Prices Surge Amid DRC Feedstock Supply Suspension

DRC Cobalt

Extended Supply Halt from DRC Fuels Price Rally in Chinese Cobalt Market

Cobalt prices in China are set to continue their upward trend as supply disruptions from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) persist. Market participants anticipate that the rally will hold until the DRC government lifts its suspension on cobalt feedstock exports.

DRC Suspension Puts Pressure on Global Supply

Most traders expect Chinese cobalt metal prices to climb toward ¥300/kg under current supply conditions. “We may hit the ¥300/kg level soon,” said a Chinese trader. “But whether prices move beyond that will depend entirely on how long the DRC suspension continues.”

Despite stable production at DRC mines, the export restriction has reduced global feedstock availability. “If the suspension continues for four months, inventories outside the DRC could be exhausted,” warned a second source. Companies with lower inventory buffers may face serious operational risks.

China Relies Heavily on DRC for Cobalt Imports

China imported approximately 188,560 tonnes of cobalt metal equivalent in intermediate forms in 2024 — a 65% increase from 2023. Notably, 99% of these imports originated from the DRC. Key suppliers include CMOC and Glencore, which operate major copper-cobalt mines in the African nation.

As China remains the world’s largest cobalt refining hub, any prolonged supply disruption from the DRC could have far-reaching effects on the battery and electronics industries.

Uganda’s Kilembe Copper and Cobalt Mine Targets 2027 Restart

Sarrai group

Uganda’s Kilembe copper and cobalt mine is set to resume production by 2027 following a new redevelopment initiative led by the Africa-based Sarrai Group. The mine, which contains over 4 million tonnes of copper and an undisclosed quantity of cobalt, has been inactive since 1982 due to outdated infrastructure and economic pressures. Its restart is part of Uganda’s broader strategy to harness critical mineral assets for industrial growth and export competitiveness. The Kilembe copper and cobalt mine is strategically located in western Uganda and is connected by rail to a smelter in Jinja, enhancing its logistical potential once operations begin.

Sarrai Group Steps In After Failed Chinese Bid

The Ugandan government recently signed a production-sharing agreement with the Sarrai Group and local firm Nile Fibreboard to redevelop the mine after the previous operator, China’s Tibet Hima Mining, failed to deliver on its concession. The former operator’s delays, including an unsuccessful attempt to export 30,000 tonnes of copper to China for testing, led to the termination of their contract in 2023. In contrast, Sarrai Group has pledged to complete the project by 2027 and has already begun preliminary activities, including site assessment, asset rehabilitation, and community engagement. The full 2,800-acre site—much of it still unexplored—has been reclaimed by the government and allocated to Sarrai to expand the resource base of the Kilembe copper and cobalt mine.

A New Chapter for Uganda’s Critical Mineral Strategy

Although the exact investment amount has not been disclosed, previous plans by Tibet Hima included a $135 million commitment, a smelter construction, and a hydropower upgrade at Mubuku I from 5MW to 12MW—targets that may still shape Sarrai’s approach. As global demand for copper and cobalt accelerates in response to the clean energy transition, Kilembe’s redevelopment could position Uganda as a regional supplier of essential battery metals. The revival of the Kilembe copper and cobalt mine also reflects a growing trend among African governments to reclaim and reactivate dormant but strategic mineral assets in alignment with national industrial goals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Kilembe’s restart signals Uganda’s entry into the global race for battery minerals. If Sarrai Group delivers on its timeline and investment, the site could emerge as a crucial copper and cobalt source in East Africa’s mining ecosystem.

US Moves to Diversify Metal Supply with New Legislation

US Metal

The United States is taking proactive steps to reduce its reliance on China for critical minerals by introducing three new pieces of legislation. Congressman Rob Wittman, a Republican leader of the critical minerals policy working group, announced the bills this week, which aim to develop alternative supply chains for key minerals vital to technology, defense, and energy sectors.

Earth Sciences and Co-operation Enhancement Act of 2024

One of the key pieces of legislation is the Earth Sciences and Co-operation Enhancement Act of 2024, which seeks to fund international collaboration to diversify the critical mineral supply chain. This bill allocates $3 million for the 2025 fiscal year, aimed at financing research to locate new mineral resources and foster partnerships between US universities, private-sector companies, and scientists. The bill’s objective is to enhance cooperation with international partners and reduce the US's dependence on foreign-controlled resources.

Amendment to the Export Reform Control Act of 2018

Another significant bill, the Amendment to the Export Reform Control Act of 2018, proposes the introduction of export controls on black mass (recycled lithium-ion battery material) and swarf (by-products from magnet manufacturing). The legislation mandates that foreign entities seeking to export or re-export these materials will need a license. This move is designed to improve the US’s control over the recycling and recovery of critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel from used batteries, a growing source of essential materials for various industries.

Securing Essential and Critical US Resources and Elements Minerals Act of 2024

The Securing Essential and Critical US Resources and Elements Minerals Act of 2024 rounds out the new legislative package by establishing a reserve to stabilize prices for critical minerals. The bill proposes a board of governors to oversee private-sector market makers who will be authorized to buy and distribute critical minerals, helping to maintain price stability and market-oriented practices. This reserve would be updated annually to ensure it covers the most critical minerals for the US economy.

These legislative moves come in response to the increasing political and economic pressure surrounding the US's reliance on China for critical minerals. Recent trade tensions have exacerbated this issue, with China suspending exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the US in early December. The new bills reflect the growing urgency to establish a more resilient and independent mineral supply chain, ensuring that the US can better meet its technological and industrial needs while mitigating the risks of supply disruptions.

China Imposes Export Controls on Rare Earths, Shaking Global Supply Chains

China Rare Earths

New Export Restrictions Target Samarium, Terbium, Dysprosium, and Other Critical Elements

China has imposed immediate export controls on a wide array of rare earth elements, including samarium, terbium, dysprosium, and yttrium. The controls also affect alloys, NdFeB magnets, and samarium-cobalt permanent magnets, deepening global concerns about rare earth supply security.

This move aligns with China’s dual-use item control scheme, formalized last year through new legislation. The Ministry of Commerce stated the action reflects international norms for items with both civilian and military applications.

However, the timing is widely viewed as retaliation against recent US tariffs. Over the past two years, China has imposed controls on other strategic metals, including gallium, germanium, and graphite, amid intensifying geopolitical tensions with Western nations.

Global Markets Brace for Disruption as Permit Delays and Shortages Loom

Exporters must now submit documentation verifying both end-user and end-use, with immediate suspension of exports if changes occur. Though the official permit process takes 45 days, actual approvals may be delayed depending on destination countries.

Past implementation of similar schemes caused price spikes in metals like antimony and bismuth, as exporters struggled to receive permits. The European antimony market currently trades at historically high premiums due to such restrictions.

In this new round, heavy and medium rare earth exports may decline significantly, given the processing uncertainties. The rules apply globally—not just to the US—raising concerns across Japan, Korea, and Europe.

US and Japan Face Supply Shock as China Tightens Rare Earth Dominance

China supplies over 90% of the world’s rare earths, making the new controls especially impactful for US and Japanese industries. The US lacks alternative sources for heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium, with Lynas Malaysia not expected to deliver separated output until 2025.

Japan, a key importer of dysprosium and terbium, is highly exposed. Traders warn that non-Chinese suppliers may raise prices in response, although ramp-up timelines for new mines remain uncertain.

Meanwhile, Chinese imports of US rare earth ores may fall due to Beijing’s new 34% retaliatory tariffs, though this will have limited domestic impact, as China sources much of its supply from Myanmar, Laos, and internal mines.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China's rare earth export controls signal a new escalation in materials diplomacy. With the West struggling to develop non-China supply chains, this move could accelerate diversification efforts—but not without short-term disruptions. For global industries relying on permanent magnets and high-tech alloys, the clock is ticking.

Zimbabwe to Ban Lithium Concentrate Exports from 2027

Zimbabwe lithium Mining

Government Push for Domestic Processing

Zimbabwe will impose a ban on lithium concentrate exports starting 1 January 2027, according to mines minister Winston Chitando. The policy follows a 2022 ban on raw ore exports and seeks to encourage investment in local processing facilities and battery material plants. Zimbabwe holds Africa’s largest lithium reserves, with Chinese firms already dominating its mining sector.

Two new plants, backed by Sinomine and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, are under construction and expected to begin operations in 2027. These facilities will produce lithium sulphate, a key intermediate that can be refined into battery-grade lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate.

Chinese Investment and Global Market Implications

Chinese companies remain committed to Zimbabwe’s lithium sector despite lithium prices falling nearly 90% since 2022. This long-term strategy reflects Beijing’s broader effort to secure critical minerals for its electric vehicle and energy storage industries. The upcoming export ban will strengthen Zimbabwe’s role in global lithium supply chains by shifting the country toward value-added production.

Zimbabwe’s policy aligns with a growing African trend of restricting raw mineral exports to promote domestic industrialization. For instance, Gabon recently announced a manganese ore export ban from 2029, while Guinea, Mali, Tanzania, and the DRC have implemented similar measures for bauxite, gold, and cobalt.

Strategic Positioning in the Global Battery Market

By enforcing the lithium concentrate export ban, Zimbabwe is positioning itself as a future hub for processed battery materials rather than a raw material supplier. This policy could attract further downstream investment while also reshaping trade flows, especially for EV and renewable energy supply chains. However, success will depend on whether domestic refining capacity can keep pace with rising demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zimbabwe’s lithium export ban signals a decisive shift toward resource nationalism and value-added production. For global supply chains, this move underscores Africa’s emerging role in shaping critical mineral strategies. Investors and downstream users must adapt to a future where raw materials are less available, but refined products become central to supply security.

US Strategic Metals Secures $400 Million Loan for Missouri Battery Metals Project

US Strategic Metals, a key player in the critical minerals sector, has secured a non-binding letter of interest for a $400 million loan from the US Export-Import (EXIM) Bank. The loan is intended to fund the company’s ambitious battery-grade metals complex in Missouri, which includes a mine, concentrator, and hydrometallurgical processing facility. The 15-year loan will undergo due diligence by EXIM Bank before final terms are set.

The loan, coupled with other financing avenues, is expected to cover the majority of the project’s construction and development costs. US Strategic Metals aims to bolster domestic battery supply chains by producing nickel and cobalt sulfates, lithium carbonate, and copper cathode.

The company claims that its Missouri site, located in Madison County, hosts the largest cobalt reserve in the United States, with estimates of 100 million pounds of cobalt, 150 million pounds of nickel, and 170 million pounds of copper. Feedstock for the processing facility will come from the mine's concentrate, preexisting tailings waste, and recycled lithium-ion batteries.

In 2022, US Strategic Metals secured a long-term offtake agreement with global mining giant Glencore, covering 100% of the project's production.

China’s Gallium Expansion Slows as Germanium Supply Diversifies: Key Market Insights

China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMA)

The Chinese gallium (Ga) production expansion has encountered significant hurdles, while germanium (Ge) supply sources are increasingly diversifying to mitigate feedstock shortages. According to Li Yilan, a senior analyst at the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMA), the pace of new gallium production projects in China has slowed due to decreasing Ga content in bauxite, the primary feedstock for gallium extraction. As a result, many production projects have been delayed, and some that did launch have scaled back or halted operations altogether. However, the diversification of germanium supply chains signals a shift in how the industry is adapting to global demand pressures.

Slowdown in Gallium Production Expansion

China’s gallium output for 2024 is forecast to reach 950 tons, a 14% increase compared to the previous year. Despite this increase, the growth rate of gallium production capacity has slowed considerably. In particular, China’s gallium capacity rose by 40% this year, but the full realization of this capacity has been hindered by difficulties in securing sufficient feedstock from bauxite. The lower Ga content in bauxite has made it harder for producers to maintain a consistent supply of gallium, forcing many projects to delay their timelines or reduce output.

The demand for gallium, particularly from the magnet manufacturing sector (which consumes 46% of the metal), has increased gradually over the past two years. Additionally, the rise in demand for gallium oxide phosphor in electronics has offset the reduced demand from the solar cell sector. This demand shift has been a key factor in the slight increase in Chinese gallium exports, which rose by 35% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 48.4 tons. This increase is partly due to disruptions in last year’s exports caused by the country’s export control schemes, which limited overseas shipments.

Germanium Supply Diversification and Emerging Markets

While gallium production faces slowdowns, germanium’s supply chain is showing signs of diversification, especially as producers look beyond China for feedstock. Tight feedstock availability in China has prompted several producers to seek alternative sources for germanium. Notably, the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s state-owned mining company, Gecamines, has begun exporting germanium concentrates to Belgium. This move is part of a broader trend of extracting germanium from non-traditional sources, such as copper-cobalt ores in the Congo and coal and nickel in Indonesia. These new extraction routes are expected to increase the overall supply of germanium.

China’s germanium output is projected to exceed 200 tons in 2024, up from 190 tons the previous year. Strong demand from the infrared and solar cell sectors, which use germanium in various applications, has driven prices upward in recent months. However, the rapid rise in prices has caused a significant drop in exports. Between January and September 2024, China exported just 18.8 tons of germanium, a 46% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Higher prices and more stringent export license procedures have pushed international buyers to explore other sources for germanium, further boosting the trend toward diversified supply.

Conclusion

The global markets for gallium and germanium are undergoing significant shifts, with production challenges in China affecting gallium’s expansion and leading to a diversification of germanium supply chains. While gallium demand remains steady, especially from magnet and phosphor industries, production issues are slowing the pace of growth. On the other hand, germanium's increasing extraction from countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia is easing the reliance on Chinese supply. The metal markets are adapting, and these dynamics will likely continue to influence pricing and production trends in the coming years.

EU Defence Spending to Drive Demand for Specialty Metals

Metals

Rising military investments in Europe are set to reshape demand for critical metals like titanium, niobium, and cobalt.

Defence Sector Targets Strategic Metals

European defence spending is surging under the EU’s Readiness 2030 plan, aiming to boost military capabilities. The plan, also known as ReArm Europe, will mobilise up to €800bn ($865bn), targeting air defence and military mobility. As a result, this initiative will significantly increase demand for key metals used in advanced defence systems. NATO’s critical materials list includes gallium, tungsten, aluminium, graphite, and cobalt, all vital to weapons, drones, and aircraft. Meanwhile, demand for germanium and columbite is already rising due to increased procurement for infrared and missile applications.

Supply Chain Constraints and Geopolitical Risks Loom

However, meeting demand will require navigating complex global supply chains and market disruptions. China’s export restrictions on metals like antimony and bismuth have sent prices soaring, causing volatility across EU markets. At the same time, titanium supply gaps highlight Europe’s industrial weaknesses in strategic stockpiling and processing capacity. Despite these hurdles, market sentiment is shifting, and banks are more open to financing metals tied to defence priorities. Germany is exploring ways to adapt automotive manufacturing for defence needs, showcasing flexibility amid rising urgency.

Overreliance and Strategic Vulnerability

Europe remains dependent on military imports from the US, Israel, and South Korea despite its funding increase. Titanium stands out as a weak link, with Europe lacking sponge production and relying on external sources for critical parts. As defence needs rise, nations are seeking ways to reduce dependence and reinforce self-sufficiency in essential metal supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe's shift toward a militarised industrial policy places specialty metals at the core of security. For suppliers and investors, understanding these structural shifts is vital. Strategic metal supply is no longer just economic—it’s geopolitical.

Jaguar Land Rover Backs Cyclic Materials in Rare Earth Recycling Expansion

Cyclic Materials

Cyclic Materials Secures Investment to Boost Rare Earth Processing in US and Europe

Canadian rare earth recycling start-up Cyclic Materials has secured a $2 million investment from InMotion Ventures, the investment arm of Jaguar Land Rover. This funding will support the launch of the company's first commercial rare earth element (REE) processing facilities in the United States and Europe. The investment extends Cyclic Materials’ Series B round to $55 million.

Expanding Rare Earth Recycling to Secure Supply Chains

Cyclic Materials is advancing its MagCycle and REEPure technologies to extract REEs from end-of-life electric vehicle (EV) motors, wind turbines, MRI machines, and data center waste. With less than 1% of REEs currently being recycled, increasing domestic processing capacity is crucial to reducing reliance on China, which dominates global REE processing. China’s export restrictions on rare earth technologies have heightened concerns about supply chain resilience.

Growing Investment in Critical Minerals Recycling

In September 2023, Cyclic Materials raised $53 million from key investors, including Microsoft, Hitachi, BMW i Ventures, ArcTern, and Fifth Wall. With InMotion Ventures' latest contribution, the company has raised over $85 million in equity financing. This funding will accelerate Cyclic Materials' North American and European expansion, refine its recycling processes, and enhance production capabilities.

Jaguar Land Rover’s investment aligns with its 2030 electrification strategy, which involves securing critical raw materials for battery repair, re-use, and recycling. The company is strengthening its upstream supply chain to support the transition to luxury electric vehicles.

Cyclic Materials has also partnered with Solvay, Vattenfall, Synetiq, and Vacuumschmelze to advance rare earth magnet recycling. The company operates Hub 100, a commercial demonstration facility in Kingston, Ontario, with an 8,000 t/yr MagCycle capacity and a 100 t/yr REEPure hydrometallurgical facility producing recycled mixed rare earth oxides (rMREO), nickel, and cobalt hydroxides.

Lopal and Cornex Sign Landmark LFP Supply Deal to Strengthen China’s Battery Chain

Lopal

Strategic Agreement Secures 150,000t of LFP Through 2029

Lopal and Cornex have signed a major lithium iron phosphate (LFP) supply deal, securing 150,000 tonnes of LFP cathode active material over five years. The Focus Keyphrase "LFP supply deal" reflects a growing trend of long-term procurement strategies across the EV battery value chain.

Under the agreement, Jiangsu Lopal will deliver LFP to three Cornex subsidiaries in Wuhan, Xiaogan, and Yichang between 2025 and 2029. The deal is valued at over 5 billion yuan ($694 million), marking one of China’s largest bilateral LFP commitments to date. This collaboration comes as LFP demand surges in both domestic and export EV markets.

Lopal Expands Production Footprint Across China and Indonesia

Lopal has rapidly scaled its LFP production capabilities following its acquisition of the LFP business from Shenzhen BTR New Energy Material. It now operates multiple LFP plants across Jiangsu, Shandong, Tianjin, Sichuan, and Hubei, giving it geographic reach and production redundancy.

In 2024, Lopal’s LFP output surged to 184,697 tonnes, a 56% increase from the previous year, with sales rising 65% to 178,287 tonnes. Lopal has also begun overseas expansion, completing the first 30,000 t/yr phase of an Indonesian plant, with a second 90,000 t/yr phase in planning. These moves position Lopal as a global LFP leader with diversified supply capabilities.

Term Contracts Signal Confidence from Global OEMs

Lopal has not only secured deals with domestic players but also signed term supply contracts with Ford and LG Energy Solution. These partnerships highlight Lopal’s growing credibility in supplying high-volume, high-quality LFP material for global EV platforms.

Meanwhile, Cornex—formally Chuneng—is increasing battery production in central China, supported by reliable LFP sourcing. The LFP supply deal ensures material stability for future gigafactory-scale battery production, a critical factor amid rising input volatility and tightening market conditions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The LFP supply deal between Lopal and Cornex reflects the tightening integration of China’s battery supply chain, with long-term contracts emerging as a buffer against future material risk. As global automakers seek cobalt-free alternatives, LFP’s role will only grow, and producers like Lopal are positioning themselves at the center of this transition.

DRC Miner Gecamines Set to Ship First Germanium Concentrates Amid Tight Global Supply

Gecamines

The Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) state-owned mining company, Gécamines, is poised to make its first-ever shipment of germanium concentrates, marking a significant milestone in the global supply chain for this critical mineral. The shipment will be exported to Umicore, a Belgian metals processor, for refining into high-tech downstream products.

A Strategic Move Amid a Global Germanium Crunch

Gécamines’ germanium concentrates are sourced from the Big Hill tailings site in Lubumbashi, a location that holds approximately 10 million tonnes of metal slag. The tailings contain valuable recoverable metals such as zinc, silver, cobalt, and copper, alongside germanium.

The company’s subsidiary, STL, recently established a state-of-the-art hydrometallurgical plant at Lubumbashi to process these tailings. This partnership with Umicore, formalized in May, involves both technological collaboration and an offtake agreement, ensuring a streamlined supply of germanium for the Belgian company.

This development is particularly significant as global germanium availability has been constrained since China, the world’s leading producer, introduced export controls in August 2023. As a result, China’s germanium exports dropped by 56% year-on-year between January and July 2024, totaling just 15,277 kilograms.

Market Dynamics: Rising Demand and Tight Supply

Germanium, a vital mineral for high-tech industries such as semiconductors, fiber optics, and infrared optics, has seen skyrocketing demand. The supply restrictions, coupled with China’s national stockpiling efforts and reduced feedstock from domestic zinc and lead mines, have caused a global supply crunch. Prices for germanium surged dramatically during the summer of 2024, underscoring the urgency for alternative sources.

The shipment from Gécamines and its collaboration with Umicore signals a shift towards diversified germanium sourcing, which could help stabilize the market. By leveraging its Big Hill reserves, the DRC could emerge as a significant player in the critical minerals sector.

Pure Lithium Secures $300mn EXIM Support for US-Based Lithium Metal Battery Facility

Pure Lithium Corporation

Pure Lithium has received a $300 million Letter of Interest (LOI) from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) to support its planned industrial-scale lithium metal battery plant. If approved, the Pure Lithium EXIM loan would fall under EXIM’s “Make More in America” initiative aimed at rebuilding domestic manufacturing capacity and securing supply chains in strategic sectors like energy storage.

The proposed facility will use Pure Lithium’s proprietary “Brine to Battery” process, which directly converts brine into lithium metal anodes—eliminating graphite, cobalt, nickel, and manganese. This vertically integrated method enables a fully US-based battery supply chain, from raw material extraction to cell production. CEO Emilie Bodoin emphasized the project's potential to reshape global lithium battery sourcing models.

Disruptive Battery Chemistry Supports Strategic US Objectives

The Pure Lithium EXIM loan could accelerate commercialization of lithium metal vanadium oxide batteries, which offer higher energy density without relying on traditional cathode materials. This technology positions Pure Lithium at the forefront of post-Li-ion battery innovation, directly supporting the U.S. push for clean tech self-reliance.

Pure Lithium’s partnerships reinforce its vertically integrated vision. It sources lithium concentrate from E3 Lithium in Alberta, Canada, and collaborates with Saint-Gobain Ceramics to engineer water-blocking lithium-selective membranes—a key component in its novel extraction process.

EXIM Financing to Boost US Battery Supply Chain Resilience

EXIM’s Make More in America strategy supports projects that improve domestic industrial competitiveness in sectors facing global strategic risk. The Pure Lithium EXIM loan would directly address U.S. concerns over dependence on foreign-dominated battery material supply chains, especially China.

If finalized, the funding will catalyze Pure Lithium’s ability to scale manufacturing within U.S. borders while lowering barriers for next-generation battery adoption. This aligns with U.S. energy security goals and rising demand for alternative battery chemistries in defense, mobility, and grid storage sectors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Pure Lithium EXIM loan represents a critical step in reshoring advanced battery manufacturing. As supply chain risks intensify and lithium metal demand grows, projects that fuse innovation with domestic sourcing will shape the next era of U.S. battery independence.

GEM Expands Critical Mineral Recycling to Strengthen China’s Supply Chain Independence

GEM

High-Purity Germanium and Tungsten Recycling to Double by 2027

Chinese battery materials producer GEM is expanding its critical mineral recycling capacity to support China’s supply chain independence. In its 2024 annual report, GEM announced significant investments in germanium recycling and high-purity refining, driven by Beijing’s resource localization strategy. The company aims to rapidly scale its recycling of gallium, indium, and scandium, all of which are subject to China’s recent export restrictions.

Strategic Metals and Battery Materials Drive Growth

GEM will also broaden recycling operations for minor metals such as molybdenum, tantalum, and niobium. These materials are essential for defense and electronics manufacturing. The company currently recycles over 20 metals from waste batteries, electronics, vehicles, and plastics across its eight Chinese plants and international sites in South Korea, South Africa, and Indonesia.

Doubling Output of Tungsten and Platinum Group Metals

To support industrial demand, GEM plans to double its output of tungsten powder and electronic metals to 20 tonnes by 2027. Tungsten’s high conductivity and melting point make it ideal for semiconductors and photovoltaic thin-film cells. In addition, GEM will build a demonstration plant for platinum, palladium, and rhodium refining, targeting similar output growth by 2027.

Core Battery Material Output Set for 46% Growth in 2025

The company expects a strong rise in core product output—nickel, ternary precursors, cobalt, cathode materials, and recycled batteries—with a projected 46% increase in 2025. From 2025 to 2027, the annual growth rate is forecast to moderate to 36%, still reflecting robust demand for EV and energy storage materials.

The Metalnomist Commentary

GEM’s expansion underscores China’s push for mineral sovereignty in a geopolitically constrained environment. By scaling critical mineral recycling, GEM reduces import dependence while reinforcing its leadership in the global circular economy for strategic metals.

Lyten Begins Lithium Metal Foil Production in the US

Lyten

Lithium-Metal Anode Manufacturing Moves Closer to Full Domestic Supply Chain

Lyten, a US-based battery manufacturer, has officially begun lithium metal foil production to strengthen domestic control of the battery anode supply chain. The company processes lithium metal from a partner's East Coast facility, converting it into battery-grade anodes at its own plant. This development positions Lyten as a key player in reshoring battery component manufacturing.

The process involves manufacturing lithium metal alloys in ingot form, then extruding and rolling them into foils for integration into lithium-metal anodes. Lyten aims to transition all lithium sourcing to within the United States, reducing dependence on South American supply.

Lyten’s Lithium-Sulfur Batteries Avoid Critical Mineral Risks

Lyten claims its Lithium-Sulfur batteries require no nickel, cobalt, manganese, or graphite—materials subject to trade tensions and environmental scrutiny. As a result, the company expects to bypass US tariffs and critical minerals risk, gaining a strategic edge. Lyten also acquired a California battery facility from Northvolt and secured a $650mn letter of intent from the US Export-Import Bank to scale up operations.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lyten’s domestic lithium foil production signals a pivotal shift toward US battery independence. Its unique Lithium-Sulfur chemistry eliminates key mineral dependencies, offering long-term geopolitical and economic advantages.

Lyten Secures $650 Million to Expand U.S. Lithium-Sulfur Battery Production

Lyten

U.S.-based battery startup Lyten has secured a funding package of up to $650 million to accelerate the expansion of lithium-sulfur (Li-S) battery manufacturing and supply its technology to international markets. The financing, provided through multiple Letters of Interest from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM), is part of an initiative to strengthen economic ties in the Caribbean.

Lyten is actively pursuing agreements with international partners, including Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) for battery energy storage systems in Trinidad and Tobago and other Caribbean nations. These agreements aim to fully utilize the production capacity of its newly acquired Northvolt cell manufacturing facility.

Expansion Plans in the U.S. Market

In November 2024, Lyten acquired Northvolt’s manufacturing plant in San Leandro, California, which is set to begin commercial production in the second half of 2025. This facility will play a crucial role in scaling up lithium-sulfur battery production, a promising alternative to lithium-ion technology due to its higher energy density and cobalt-free composition.

Additionally, Lyten recently announced the location for its $1 billion lithium-sulfur battery gigafactory in Reno, Nevada. The plant, expected to begin operations in 2027, will have an initial production capacity of 10 GWh per year, further positioning Lyten as a key player in the next-generation battery market.