Quota System Likely for DRC Cobalt Export Restart Amid Rising Global Prices

DRC cobalt

Market Expects DRC to Shift From Export Ban to Cobalt Quotas

The Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to transition from a cobalt export ban to a quota-based system, as global prices rise and domestic revenues remain frozen. This policy shift is emerging as the most probable path forward, according to market participants attending the Cobalt Institute’s annual conference in Singapore.

The Focus Keyphrase "DRC cobalt export quotas" has become central to ongoing discussions. Since the DRC imposed a blanket cobalt export ban in February, cobalt hydroxide prices have nearly doubled. However, no royalties have flowed into the Congolese treasury, prompting calls for a more dynamic system that maintains pricing leverage while restoring revenue.

Traders suggest the decision is being driven directly by Kinshasa and the presidential office, not just Gecamines. The political goal appears to be the establishment of a long-term supply management system, similar to OPEC’s oil model, to prevent global oversupply and capture more value for the DRC.

Stockpiles Shrinking as Market Braces for Supply Squeeze

Despite record production by CMOC (30,000t) and Glencore (9,500t) in Q1, the export halt has created dislocation. Cobalt hydroxide stocks are building up within the DRC, while inventories outside the country are being depleted. Estimates put global stockpiles at 50,000–70,000t, but availability varies by holder and strategy.

Some traders are withholding shipments to capitalize on rising prices, while others warn of a looming shortage. By August, inventories in China could be critically low, leading to what one source described as a “crunch scenario” if no new material enters the pipeline.

The pressure is already visible in spot markets: Chinese hydroxide material trades at $15–16/lb, western standard at $17–18/lb, and alloy grade cobalt at $19–20/lb, depending on region and grade.

Export Enforcement Signals Shift to Strategic Resource Governance

The DRC’s export ban is being strictly enforced, with military-backed customs units now operating at Kasumbalesa, the country’s primary cobalt export route to Zambia. The sophisticated level of enforcement has convinced many in the market that a structured quota system is the inevitable next step.

Meanwhile, comparisons are being drawn with Indonesia’s nickel quota system, although differences in market structure mean the analogy is not perfect. Still, the strategic intent is clear: the DRC is asserting greater control over its cobalt exports to maximize pricing power and domestic benefit.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The move toward DRC cobalt export quotas reflects a broader trend: resource-rich nations are reclaiming leverage in critical mineral supply chains. As global cobalt demand grows, especially for EV batteries and aerospace alloys, market players must prepare for a more politically managed and price-sensitive landscape. The DRC’s emerging strategy could become a blueprint for other producers.