Oyu Tolgoi Copper Shipments Restart After Mongolia Protest Disruption

Oyu Tolgoi

Oyu Tolgoi copper shipments have restarted after protesters blocked a key haulage road on 17 June, temporarily interrupting concentrate exports from Mongolia’s largest copper mine.

Oyu Tolgoi copper shipments are strategically important because the Rio Tinto-controlled operation is becoming one of the largest sources of new global copper supply. Mine production is rising rapidly as expanded underground operations ramp up.

Oyu Tolgoi copper shipments remain heavily dependent on road transport to China, however. The recent blockade highlights how logistics can become a critical bottleneck even when mine output itself is increasing strongly.

The disruption also carried significant economic consequences for Mongolia. Oyu Tolgoi contributes around 9% of the national budget and injects an estimated 23bn togrogs into the economy each day.

Copper Output Growth Increases Mongolia’s Supply Importance

Mongolia has emerged as an increasingly important source of incremental copper supply as Oyu Tolgoi expands production.

National mine output increased by around 35% in January, largely because of the operation’s ramp-up. Rio Tinto also reported a 56% increase in first-quarter concentrate output from Oyu Tolgoi.

The mine is targeting around 500,000 t/yr of copper in concentrate during 2028-36, which would place it among the world’s most significant copper operations.

That growth comes at an important time for the copper market. Grid expansion, renewable energy, electric vehicles, data centres and industrial electrification are increasing long-term demand while large new mines remain difficult to develop.

Oyu Tolgoi therefore represents one of the major projects capable of adding meaningful copper tonnes without waiting for an entirely new greenfield development.

The mine’s growing production also strengthens Mongolia’s fiscal dependence on copper exports. The operator estimated that prolonged shipment disruption could reduce government tax receipts by around 35bn togrogs per week.

Road Dependence Remains a Critical Export Bottleneck

Despite strong production growth, copper concentrate still needs to move by truck across the border into China.

This leaves shipments vulnerable to local protests, road disruptions and border logistics even when underground mining and processing facilities operate normally.

The recent blockade demonstrated how quickly physical exports can be interrupted. Delayed shipments can affect contract deliveries, working capital and customer inventory even without reducing mine production.

Mongolia has been working to improve transport infrastructure and increase shared haulage capacity across commodity supply chains.

Those investments will become increasingly important as Oyu Tolgoi approaches higher production rates. A mine producing around 500,000 t/yr of copper requires logistics infrastructure capable of handling consistently larger concentrate volumes.

For Chinese smelters, Oyu Tolgoi also represents an increasingly important nearby source of concentrate. Reliable transport between Mongolia and China therefore carries strategic significance for both countries.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Oyu Tolgoi’s geology and production ramp-up are delivering the copper, but logistics remain the weak link. As output approaches 500,000 t/yr, Mongolia will need export infrastructure as reliable as the mine itself to fully capture the project’s value.

Rio Tinto Copper Output Rises as Oyu Tolgoi Offsets Lithium Weakness

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto copper output increased in the first quarter as stronger production from the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia lifted the group’s global copper performance. The UK-Australian miner produced 229,000t of consolidated copper in January-March, up 9% from a year earlier.

Rio Tinto copper output growth was driven mainly by copper in concentrates from Oyu Tolgoi, where production rose by 56% to 102,000t. The ramp-up helped offset weaker concentrate output at Escondida and lower refined copper production at Kennecott.

The first-quarter result shows the changing shape of Rio Tinto’s portfolio. Copper is gaining strategic weight as electrification, grids and industrial infrastructure support long-term demand, while lithium remains more exposed to weather, ramp-up timing and early-stage project execution.

At the same time, Rio Tinto reported higher alumina production but weaker bauxite and lithium output. Heavy rainfall and cyclone-related disruptions affected Australian bauxite mines, while weather events in Argentina reduced lithium carbonate equivalent production.

Copper Growth Strengthens Despite Mixed Mine Performance

Oyu Tolgoi was the strongest contributor to Rio Tinto copper output in the first quarter. Its continued ramp-up in Mongolia lifted copper in concentrates production to 102,000t, reinforcing the mine’s role as one of the group’s most important growth assets.

The result matters because large copper projects are increasingly difficult to bring into stable production. Oyu Tolgoi gives Rio Tinto a major long-life copper source at a time when global mine supply remains vulnerable to grades, permitting delays and operational disruptions.

Escondida delivered a mixed quarter. Refined copper output at the Chilean operation rose by 21% to 16,000t, but concentrates production fell by 14% to 77,000t.

Kennecott in the US was weaker. Refined copper production fell by 20% to 34,000t because of lower anode inventories after unplanned smelter maintenance and reduced concentrator throughput caused by geotechnical constraints.

Rio Tinto kept its full-year copper production guidance unchanged at 800,000-870,000t. This suggests the company sees first-quarter disruptions as manageable within its broader 2026 plan.

The company also began drilling at the Resolution Copper project in Arizona after completing the land exchange in March. Resolution remains strategically important because it could become a major US copper source if development advances.

Rio Tinto copper output therefore carries both short-term and long-term significance. Oyu Tolgoi is already lifting production, while Resolution represents future supply optionality in a market increasingly focused on domestic and allied copper sources.

Lithium Falls as Weather Disrupts Argentina Operations

Rio Tinto’s lithium performance weakened sharply in the first quarter. Attributable lithium carbonate equivalent production fell by 26% on the year to 12,700t.

The decline was caused by heavy rainfall and weather events that disrupted operations at Olaroz and Fenix in Argentina. These disruptions show that lithium brine and carbonate operations remain sensitive to weather, water balance and site logistics.

The continued ramp-up at the Rincón starter plant partly offset the production impact. Rincón is important for Rio Tinto’s lithium strategy because it supports the company’s expansion into battery materials.

Rio Tinto maintained its 2026 LCE production guidance at 61,000-64,000t. First production from Fenix 1B and Sal de Vida remains on track for the second half of 2026.

The aluminium chain also showed mixed results. Primary aluminium output rose by 1% on the year to 835,000t, but fell by 2% from the previous quarter.

Alumina production increased by 6% to 2.04mn t, while bauxite production fell by 11% to 13.28mn t. Heavy rainfall at Weipa in Queensland and cyclone-related shutdowns at Weipa and Gove reduced bauxite output.

Recycled aluminium production also fell by 8% to 61,000t. Rio Tinto kept 2026 guidance unchanged for primary aluminium, alumina and bauxite, indicating confidence in recovery through the year.

The first-quarter data show a portfolio with different operating pressures. Copper is benefiting from major mine ramp-up, lithium is facing weather disruption, and aluminium raw materials are exposed to Australian climate events.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rio Tinto’s first quarter shows why diversified miners need both growth assets and operational resilience. Oyu Tolgoi is strengthening Rio Tinto copper output, but weather-linked lithium and bauxite disruptions show that energy-transition supply chains remain exposed to physical operating risk.

Rio Tinto battery swap trial advances low-emission mining

Rio Tinto Battery swap

Rio Tinto battery swap trial at Oyu Tolgoi signals a step-change in low-emission surface mining. The Rio Tinto battery swap trial, launched with China’s SPIC Qiyuan, will test electric haul trucks in demanding operating conditions. As a result, the Rio Tinto battery swap trial could become a blueprint for fleet decarbonisation across global open-pit operations.

Battery swap technology at Oyu Tolgoi

The Rio Tinto battery swap trial introduces electric haul trucks that can change batteries in under seven minutes. Battery swapping avoids long fast-charging pauses and keeps haul trucks in near-continuous operation. Over the past year, Rio Tinto and SPIC Qiyuan deployed eight 91t Tonly trucks, 13 800kWh batteries and a swap station. This infrastructure also includes a static charger and supporting grid connections at the Mongolian copper mine.

The trial will initially support tailings dam construction and topsoil movements at Oyu Tolgoi. These tasks provide repeatable cycles that are ideal for testing battery performance and swap logistics. Meanwhile, the project will generate real-world data on duty cycles, energy use and maintenance needs. That data will be critical for scaling battery swap systems into harsher and deeper mining environments.

Scaling battery swap across Rio Tinto’s global truck fleet

Rio Tinto sees its 700-truck global fleet as a major opportunity for wider battery swap deployment. If successful, the Rio Tinto battery swap trial could enable progressive replacement of diesel trucks in high-volume pits. Battery swap systems also align with grid-connected power strategies at large copper and iron ore operations. However, scaling will depend on local power availability, grid stability and renewable energy penetration.

Partnership with SPIC Qiyuan gives Rio Tinto access to China’s fast-moving battery and power electronics ecosystem. Chinese suppliers have already commercialised battery swap technology in logistics and urban transport fleets. Therefore, this mining-focused collaboration may accelerate standardisation of battery packs, swap stations and digital control platforms. That standardisation would reduce costs and support adoption by other global mining companies.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This trial confirms that decarbonising mining fleets is shifting from concept studies to large-scale pilots. Battery swap technology addresses one of mining’s hardest problems: keeping heavy haulage electrified without sacrificing productivity. If Oyu Tolgoi proves the model, expect copycat projects in copper, iron ore and coal, especially where grid power and renewables are available.

Rio Tinto Anticipates Higher Copper and Aluminum Production in 2025

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto, the UK-Australian mining giant, has projected a significant increase in copper and aluminum output in its 2025 forecasts, signaling robust growth prospects for these critical industrial metals. Today, the company announced that it expects copper production to jump to 780,000–850,000 tonnes, a considerable rise from this year's 660,000–720,000 tonnes.

Expanded Output at Oyu Tolgoi Copper Mine Drives Growth

This increase is largely attributed to a 50% output boost at the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia, a critical asset in Rio Tinto's portfolio, which aligns with the company’s strategic objective to hit an annual production of 1 million tonnes of copper by 2030.

Broader Increases Across Aluminum and Other Metals

Alongside copper, projections for aluminum production also show an optimistic uptrend. The company's 2025 aluminium output is forecasted to increase to between 3.25 million and 3.45 million tonnes, up from the current 3.2 million to 3.4 million tonnes. This rise is part of a broader escalation in Rio Tinto's production across the board, with bauxite and alumina outputs also seeing upward revisions. Specifically, bauxite production is expected to grow from 53 million to 56 million tonnes in 2024 to 57 million to 59 million tonnes in 2025, and alumina production is set to increase from 7 million to 7.3 million tonnes to 7 million to 7.8 million tonnes.

To support these ambitious production targets, Rio Tinto has also revised its capital expenditure for 2025 upwards to an estimated $11 billion from $9.5 billion in 2024. This financial commitment underscores the company’s dedication to expanding its mining and production capabilities, reflecting confidence in the ongoing demand for these essential metals.

The strategic ramp-up in production capacities at key sites like Oyu Tolgoi and the increased capital investments highlight Rio Tinto's proactive approach to capitalizing on the expected global demand for copper and aluminum, driven by sectors such as electronics, construction, and automotive industries.

Royal Gold acquires Horizon Copper to deepen copper exposure

Horizon Copper

Royal Gold acquires Horizon Copper for $196 million, advancing its copper growth strategy. The streaming and royalty company will buy all Horizon shares except Sandstorm’s. The cash offer is C$2 per share, or $1.46 per share. Royal Gold acquires Horizon Copper to consolidate high-quality copper interests.

Deal terms and portfolio exposure

The transaction values Horizon’s 86.49 million outstanding shares at the stated cash price. Horizon owns a 1.66% net profit interest in Peru’s Antamina mine. The open-pit operation ranks among the world’s largest copper producers. Horizon also holds 30% of the Hod Maden copper-gold project in Turkey.

Horizon owns 24% of Entrée Resources, providing exposure to Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia. In a parallel move, Royal Gold agreed to acquire Sandstorm for $3.5 billion. Each deal depends on the other’s completion to close. Therefore, execution will follow coordinated regulatory and shareholder approvals.

Strategic rationale and copper market implications

Royal Gold acquires Horizon Copper to expand long-life, low-cost copper optionality. The portfolio adds tier-one assets across the Americas and Eurasia. As a result, cash flow diversity and duration should improve. Streaming economics also limit operating cost exposure and inflation risk.

This combination tightens alignment with global copper fundamentals. Antamina, Hod Maden, and Oyu Tolgoi anchor growth into the next cycle. Meanwhile, the Sandstorm acquisition scales platform reach and deal flow. Therefore, portfolio depth supports disciplined capital allocation through price volatility.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This is a scale play into copper with premier asset linkages. Integration discipline and royalty contract terms will determine value capture. Watch closing timelines, Antamina profitability, and Hod Maden development milestones.

Rio Tinto’s Copper, Aluminium Earnings Surge in First Half of 2024

UK-Australian mining firm Rio Tintos aluminium and copper earnings increased year on year in the first half of 2024.

Copper

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) in Rio Tinto's copper business increased by 67% on the year in the first half to $1.8 million, benefiting from the ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia and resumed operations at the Kennecott smelter in the United States following its rebuild last year.

Rio Tinto's mined copper production increased by 13% on the year to 327,000 tons in the first half of this year on the back of higher output from its three operations. Mined copper output increased by 9% on the year at Escondida in Chile and 18% at Kennecott. Mined copper output also increased by 15% at Oyu Tolgoi, keeping it on track to reach 500,000 tons per year of copper from 2028 to 2036.

Refined copper production increased by 32% on the year to 125,000 tons in the first half owing to the resumed operations at Kennecott, partially offset by lower refined copper production from Escondida by 19%.

The firm expects to produce 660,000-720,000 tons of mined copper and 230,000-260,000 tons of refined copper in 2024.

Aluminium

Rio Tinto's aluminium business saw Ebitda jump 38% higher on the year in the first six months, reaching $1.58 billion, as revenues edged up by 4% to $6.49 billion.

The company reported easing costs for key raw materials such as caustic soda, coke, and pitch. Average all-in prices remained broadly stable as rising London Metal Exchange aluminium prices were mitigated by lower premiums.

Rio produced 1.65 million tons of aluminium in the first half, up by 3% on the year, with broadly stable production across its smelter network.

The company produced 3.54 million tons of alumina in the first half, down by 5% on the year, while bauxite production rose by 10% on the year to 28.1 million tons in the first half.

In the second quarter, Rio Tinto began consolidating ownership of its aluminium smelters. At the end of May, the company agreed to acquire Japanese firm Sumitomo Chemical's stake in New Zealand Aluminium Smelters, giving Rio Tinto 100% ownership of the company. The following month, it agreed to acquire Japanese firm Mitsubishi's 11.65% stake in the Boyne Smelters subsidiary, which owns and operates the Boyne Island aluminium smelter in Gladstone.

Kennecott Copper Mine Suspension Adds Pressure to Rio Tinto’s US Copper Chain

Kennecott Copper Mine

Kennecott copper mine operations have been suspended after a contractor died in an incident at Rio Tinto’s Utah project on 12 March. The company has halted all surface and underground mining work while authorities investigate, adding another disruption to one of the most important copper assets in the United States.

The suspension comes at a difficult time for Kennecott copper mine operations. Rio Tinto spent much of last year managing unstable ground conditions, low concentrate inventories, and repeated interruptions across the site’s processing chain. The company did not indicate whether concentrating, smelting, or refining operations had been halted.

Kennecott copper mine performance remains strategically important because the US copper supply chain has limited large-scale domestic mining and refining capacity. Any extended disruption at Kennecott could tighten raw material availability for the site’s downstream operations and reinforce concerns over ageing domestic copper assets.

Ageing Asset Faces Safety, Geotechnical, and Feedstock Constraints

Rio Tinto’s Kennecott project has already faced significant operational strain. Refined copper output fell by almost one-third last year to 134,000 tonnes after geotechnical setbacks and raw material shortages triggered several smelter shutdowns.

The latest suspension raises the risk of further pressure on mine feed availability. Even if smelting and refining continue, prolonged mining disruption could reduce concentrate flow and make it harder to stabilize the broader copper chain.

Kennecott’s challenges also show the structural difficulty of maintaining mature copper assets. Ageing mines often require more complex ground control, higher sustaining investment, and tighter operational discipline. When safety incidents, unstable ground, and low inventories overlap, production reliability becomes harder to protect.

Underground Expansion Remains Central to Rio Tinto’s Copper Strategy

Rio Tinto continues to invest in Kennecott despite the setbacks. The company completed installation of a 30MW solar power unit at the site in January, signalling that long-term modernization remains part of its plan for the Utah operation.

The bigger strategic focus is the underground build-out, including the North Rim Skarn project. Rio Tinto has been relying on this expansion to add about 250,000 tonnes per year of mining capacity and strengthen Kennecott’s future feed base.

The timeline has already slipped. The new section was originally expected to come online in 2024, before delays pushed first production to late 2025, with ramp-up now planned for this year. Successful execution will be critical if Rio Tinto wants to reduce Kennecott’s role as the weak link in its copper portfolio, especially after stronger production gains from Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia lifted the company’s global copper output last year.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Kennecott’s latest suspension highlights the fragility of domestic copper supply when mature assets face safety and geotechnical pressure. For Rio Tinto, the North Rim Skarn ramp-up is no longer just an expansion project; it is central to restoring confidence in the US copper chain.

Rio Tinto Increases Aluminium and Copper Production in 2024, Sets Higher Targets for 2025

Rio Tinto

Strong Growth in Bauxite and Aluminium Output

Rio Tinto, a leading UK-Australian mining firm, reported increased bauxite and aluminium production in 2024, surpassing expectations. The company extracted 58.7 million tonnes of bauxite, exceeding its guidance range of 53-56 million tonnes. Despite a 3% decline in alumina production, Rio Tinto achieved 7.3 million tonnes, reaching the upper limit of its revised 7-7.3 million tonne guidance.

The Amrun bauxite mine in Queensland, with a 10 million tonne per year capacity, operated above its expected levels. Meanwhile, aluminium production rose by 1% to 3.3 million tonnes, supported by the Kitimat plant in Canada, which reached full capacity in late 2023, and Rio Tinto’s ownership of the New Zealand Aluminium Smelter.

Copper and Alumina Expansion Plans for 2025

Rio Tinto revised its 2025 production targets, slightly increasing projections for bauxite, alumina, and aluminium. The company expects:

• 57-59 million tonnes of bauxite
• 7.4-7.8 million tonnes of alumina
• 3.25-3.45 million tonnes of aluminium

The New Zealand Aluminium Smelter will continue ramping up in early 2025, while Rio Tinto aims to complete the AP60 low-carbon aluminium smelter expansion in Quebec, Canada, by 2026. This project will increase aluminium output by 160,000 tonnes per year to 220,000 tonnes per year.

Copper Production Strategy and Expansion Projects

Rio Tinto modified its copper reporting metrics, consolidating mined and refined copper output into a single figure. The company targets 780,000-850,000 tonnes of copper production in 2025, up from 792,000 tonnes in 2024.

Growth will primarily come from:

• The Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, which ramped up to 168,100 tonnes per year in 2024.

• The North Rim Skarn copper project near Salt Lake City, US, set to launch in mid-2025 with an expected output of 250,000 tonnes per year.

With rising global demand for low-carbon aluminium and copper, Rio Tinto’s production increases could significantly impact global supply chains and metal prices.

ICSG Raises Global Refined Copper Surplus Forecast for 2025 Amid Supply Expansion

ICSG

Increased Output from DRC, China, and Indonesia Drives Market Shift

The global refined copper surplus forecast for 2025 has been significantly raised by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The group now projects a 289,000-tonne surplus, up 49% from the 194,000 tonnes forecasted in September 2024. This revision reflects a surge in refined copper supply from major producers, including China, Indonesia, India, and the DRC, outpacing modest demand growth.

Copper Mine and Refining Capacity Expansion Continues

Global copper mine production is forecast to rise 2.3% in 2025 to 23.5 million tonnes, driven by expansions at Kamoa-Kakula (DRC), Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia), and Malmyzhskoye (Russia). In parallel, refined copper output is expected to grow 2.9% to 28.3 million tonnes, with major contributions from new Chinese and Indonesian capacity. The trend will persist into 2026, with mine output reaching 24.1 million tonnes and refined output hitting 28.7 million tonnes.

Demand Outlook Weakens Amid Trade Uncertainty

Despite continued demand from the energy transition and digitalization, the ICSG has revised 2025 refined copper demand growth downward to 2.4%, totaling 28 million tonnes. The 2026 forecast is softer still, at 1.8%. Usage in China is expected to grow by 2% in 2025, but only 0.8% in 2026. Demand from the EU, Japan, and the U.S. remains weak, although India’s semiconductor expansion offers upside potential.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The updated global refined copper surplus forecast signals a recalibration of market dynamics in favor of supply. While long-term electrification trends remain bullish, short-term overcapacity may weigh on copper prices and reshape global trade flows.

ICSG Significantly Raises 2024 Copper Production and Usage Forecast

Copper

the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) significantly revised its forecast for the global refined copper supply surplus in 2024, increasing the surplus projection by 190%, driven by higher-than-expected copper production. The ICSG now expects a surplus of 469,000 tons for this year, a sharp rise from its April estimate of 162,000 tons.

Rising Copper Mine and Refined Production

The ICSG also raised its 2024 global copper mine production forecast to 22.75 million tons, reflecting a growth rate of 1.7%, up from the previously predicted 0.5%. The upward revision is attributed to new and expanded mining projects, though partially offset by the closure of Panama’s Cobre mine, which removed 330,000 tons of copper from this year’s supply.

In 2025, copper mine production is expected to rise by 3.5%, slightly below earlier projections of 3.9%. Growth will be supported by further ramp-up at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi mine, and the start of Russia’s Malmyzhskoye mine.

Global refined copper output is forecasted to grow by 4.2% this year, reaching 27.62 million tons, exceeding the previous forecast of 2.8% growth. The production rebound follows operational issues and maintenance shutdowns in 2023. Additional output from new plants in the DRC and China will further support this growth. However, a lower growth rate of 1.6% is expected in 2025 due to limited concentrate availability.

Demand and Usage Trends

The ICSG also raised its forecast for global refined copper usage to 27.15 million tons this year, implying a 2.2% growth rate. Chinese demand is expected to increase by 2% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025, while global usage excluding China is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025. Infrastructure developments and the shift toward cleaner energy and electric vehicles will continue to drive long-term demand for copper.

For 2025, the ICSG predicts a surplus of 194,000 tons in the global refined copper balance, compared with the previously forecasted surplus of 94,000 tons.

Global Refined Copper Market Recorded January Surplus as Scrap Output Rose

Copper Coil

Global refined copper market data showed a January surplus as higher mine production and stronger secondary output outweighed moderate demand growth. The market recorded a surplus of around 17,000t, down from about 60,000t in January a year earlier.

The surplus was estimated at around 16,000t after adjusting for changes in Chinese bonded stocks. This indicated that the global refined copper market remained broadly balanced, but rising inventories and limited demand momentum prevented a tighter supply picture.

The global refined copper market was supported by higher mine output in Peru and Mongolia, while stronger scrap-based refined production in China lifted secondary supply. However, disruptions in Chile, Indonesia and parts of the DRC continued to limit a broader recovery in primary supply.

Mine Growth and Secondary Production Offset Supply Disruptions

Global mine production increased by 2.2% on the year to about 1.92mn t in January. Peru’s output rose by 3%, supported by higher production at Antamina, Las Bambas, Antapaccay and Toromocho.

Mongolia delivered a much stronger increase of around 35% after the continued ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground project. This helped offset weaker output in Chile, where mine production fell by around 3%.

Indonesian production remained significantly lower after the 2025 mud rush incident at Grasberg. In the DRC, overall output rose by about 1% as solvent extraction and electrowinning growth offset a sharp decline in concentrate output linked to disruption at Kamoa.

Global refined copper production increased by around 1% to 2.43mn t. Primary production declined by 1.4% to 1.98mn t, while secondary production rose by about 11% to roughly 445,000t, mainly because of higher scrap-based production in China.

Inventories and Modest Demand Growth Limited Market Tightness

Global apparent refined copper usage rose by around 2.5% to about 2.41mn t in January. Demand growth was led by regions outside China, with Asia, the Middle East and north Africa increasing usage by about 4%.

Chinese apparent demand grew by around 1%, but net refined copper imports into China fell by 44%. This mattered because China accounted for 58% of global refined copper usage.

Inventory growth reinforced the perception of adequate supply. Global refined copper stocks reached around 1.93mn t by the end of January, while combined exchange inventories climbed to about 1.2mn t by the end of February, the highest level since March 2003.

The data showed that supply disruptions had not disappeared, but mine ramp-ups and stronger secondary copper production were enough to offset losses. As a result, the global refined copper market stayed balanced, with rising stocks limiting near-term bullish pressure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper’s January surplus showed that scrap and new mine capacity can still soften the impact of regional disruptions. The key question is whether rising inventories reflect temporary timing effects or weaker underlying demand in a market still waiting for stronger electrification-led consumption.

Copper Market Deficit 2026: ICSG Signals Faster-Than-Expected Tightening

Copper

The copper market deficit 2026 is now central to ICSG’s latest forecast. The group now expects a 150,000t refined shortfall in 2026 after a 178,000t surplus in 2025. This copper market deficit 2026 outlook represents a sharp reversal from its April projection of a 209,000t surplus. The shift reflects weaker mine output and reduced concentrate availability from key producers such as Indonesia and the DRC. As a result, refined supply growth slows just as structural demand continues to build.

Slower mine growth and constrained smelting tighten copper balance

ICSG now sees global mine production rising by only 1.4pc in 2025 and 2.3pc in 2026. The downgrade for 2025 follows disruptions at Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa in the DRC. However, growth will still come from ramp-ups at Oyu Tolgoi, Russia’s Malmyz and smaller projects in Brazil, Iran, Ecuador and Morocco. The group expects a broader recovery in Chilean, Peruvian and Zambian output in 2026. Meanwhile, refined production is forecast to rise by 3.4pc in 2025 but only 0.9pc in 2026. The stronger 2025 growth reflects Chinese smelting expansion and new plants in the DRC, India and Indonesia. Primary refined output should grow 3pc in 2025, while scrap-based secondary output grows 4.5pc. However, concentrate tightness will cap electrolytic output in 2026, partly offset by more secondary production from recycling projects. This supply picture underpins the copper market deficit 2026 narrative, with mine and smelter constraints offsetting previous expectations of surplus.

Energy transition demand deepens copper market deficit 2026 risk

Global refined copper usage is forecast to grow by 3pc in 2025 and 2.1pc in 2026. China remains the key demand engine, accounting for about 58pc of global usage. Chinese demand is expected to rise by 3.3pc in 2025 and 1pc in 2026. Demand in the rest of the world should grow by 2.5pc next year, led by Asia, while the EU and Japan remain subdued. Structural demand drivers remain intact despite macro uncertainty. Manufacturing recovery, energy transition investment and digitalisation all support long-term consumption. Expanding semis capacity in India and other developing economies further reinforces baseline growth. ICSG stresses that its balances exclude changes in unreported Chinese or State Reserve Bureau stocks. Those stock movements can materially alter realised tightness in any single year. Even so, the combination of constrained mine supply and persistent structural demand implies tightening fundamentals. For investors and producers, the copper market deficit 2026 outlook signals growing sensitivity to new disruptions and project delays.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ICSG’s revised numbers confirm that the era of easy copper surpluses is ending faster than many expected. The copper market deficit 2026 projection highlights how modest supply shocks can flip balances in a structurally tight system. For miners, smelters and OEMs, this reinforces the need to secure long-term feedstock and expand recycling before deficits become the new normal.

ICSG Copper Surplus Forecast Challenges Bullish Near-Term Market Narrative

Copper

ICSG copper surplus forecast has shifted the refined copper market outlook from deficit to surplus, challenging the more bullish tone around copper prices and strategic demand. The International Copper Study Group now expects a refined copper surplus of 96,000t in 2026 and 377,000t in 2027.

The revision marks a major change from ICSG’s October outlook, which had projected a 150,000t deficit for 2026. The new ICSG copper surplus forecast reflects weaker-than-expected demand growth and stronger secondary refined copper output.

The refined copper market is still exposed to mine disruption, lower ore grades and geopolitical risk. However, the latest forecast suggests that scrap-based production and slower consumption can offset some of the tightness from constrained mine supply.

ICSG expects global adjusted mine production to reach 23.559mn t in 2026 and 24.103mn t in 2027. Adjusted refined production is forecast at 28.76mn t in 2026 and 29.613mn t in 2027, while refined usage is expected at 28.664mn t and 29.236mn t.

Secondary Output and Slower Demand Ease Refined Copper Tightness

The biggest change in the ICSG copper surplus forecast comes from the refined side of the market. Stronger secondary output is expected to help balance constrained primary supply.

Refined copper production is forecast to grow by only 0.4% in 2026 before rising by 3% in 2027. Constrained concentrate availability will limit primary electrolytic growth this year, but solvent extraction-electrowinning and scrap-based output should provide support.

For 2027, ICSG expects primary refined copper production to rise by 2.3%, while secondary refined production increases by 5.7%. This gives scrap a larger role in balancing the market.

This matters because copper supply discussions often focus heavily on mines. But refined copper availability also depends on scrap collection, processing economics, smelter operations, SX-EW output and regional refined production.

Demand growth has also been revised lower. ICSG now expects refined usage to increase by 1.6% in 2026, down from its previous 2.1% forecast.

The downgrade reflects uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and disrupted trade flows. Chinese refined copper usage is expected to rise by 1.9% in 2026, while demand outside China grows by 1.3%.

Global refined usage is forecast to rise by 2% in 2027. Asia will remain the main growth engine, while EU and Japanese consumption are expected to stay subdued.

Asia outside Asean and CIS states will remain by far the largest refined copper-consuming region. Usage is projected at 20.469mn t in 2026 and 20.907mn t in 2027.

Mine Supply Risks Still Support Copper’s Strategic Value

ICSG’s near-term surplus forecast does not remove copper’s longer-term supply risk. The group revised down its 2026 mine production growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.3%, citing weaker growth in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile and Indonesia.

Output at Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa in the DRC remains constrained after major incidents in 2025. These disruptions show how quickly copper mine supply can tighten when large assets underperform.

Mine production growth is expected to recover to 2.3% in 2027. ICSG expects support from Chile, Zambia, Indonesia and the DRC, along with ramp-ups at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, Malmyz in Russia, Julong in China and Almalyk in Uzbekistan.

Still, mine supply remains structurally difficult. Declining ore grades, slow permitting, higher capital intensity and longer project timelines continue to limit how quickly the industry can respond to higher prices.

Copper demand also retains strong strategic drivers. Energy transition investment, grid expansion, urbanisation, digitalisation, data centres and new semi-finished product capacity should continue to support long-term consumption.

This creates a split market narrative. On paper, refined copper may move into surplus in 2026 and 2027. Strategically, copper remains central to electrification, artificial intelligence infrastructure, manufacturing and industrial policy.

ICSG also warned that actual balances could diverge from forecasts. Its Chinese apparent demand calculation excludes changes in unreported stocks, including State Reserve Bureau, producer, consumer, trader and bonded inventories.

That caveat is important. Copper inventories can move through hidden channels, making the refined market appear looser or tighter than reported balances suggest.

The ICSG copper surplus forecast therefore does not end the bullish long-term copper case. It does, however, caution against assuming immediate refined scarcity when secondary supply is rising and demand outside China remains soft.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ICSG copper surplus forecast shows that copper’s strategic story and near-term balance sheet can move in different directions. Data centres, grids and electrification support the long-term thesis, but scrap growth and weaker demand may keep the refined market looser than bullish headlines suggest.

ICSG copper market surplus narrows, but inventories shift to the US

ICSG

The ICSG copper market surplus reached 251,000t in 1H 2025. This ICSG copper market surplus narrowed from 395,000t last year. However, refined output and inventory dynamics still temper tightness signals.

Supply lifted by Peru and the DRC, while Indonesia lags

Global mine output rose by 2.7pc on stronger runs at Las Bambas and Toromocho. Meanwhile, the DRC grew 9.5pc, led by Kamoa and TFM/KFM. Mongolia advanced 31pc on the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up. However, Indonesian output fell 36pc on weaker Grasberg and Batu Hijau. Chile gained 2.6pc despite drops at Collahuasi and Los Pelambres.

Refined production increased 3.6pc, driven by China and the DRC. Outside these two, refined output rose just 0.6pc. Chilean refined production fell 8.4pc amid smelter shutdowns. Meanwhile, secondary refined output rose 3.7pc, as Chinese scrap use strengthened. Therefore, the ICSG copper market surplus narrowed but persisted.

Demand concentrated in China as inventories migrate to Comex

Refined usage climbed 4.8pc in January–June. Chinese demand rose 7.5pc, lifting its share to 58pc. However, China’s net imports fell 2.6pc, reflecting stronger domestic supply. Consumption outside China grew 1pc, with Asia, MENA gains offsetting EU, Japan, and US declines.

Exchange inventories totaled 450,752t at July end, up 4.8pc from December. LME stocks fell 129,600t, while SHFE was unchanged. However, Comex inventories rose 150,873t, as metal shifted to the US on tariff concerns. The July LME cash price averaged $9,778/t, down 0.6pc month on month. The 2025 high was $10,120/t on 3 July; the low was $8,539/t on 9 April. As a result, the ICSG copper market surplus coexists with firm price support near $10,000/t.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This print confirms a market in balance rather than deficit. Watch Comex inflows, Chilean smelter uptime, and Indonesia’s recovery for price direction. A decisive break higher likely needs sustained stock draws, not just mine-side headlines.

Rio Tinto’s 3Q Copper and Aluminium Production Declines, Bauxite Output Rises

Rio Tinto’s

Rio Tinto, the UK-Australian mining giant, posted moderate declines in mined copper and primary aluminium production in the third quarter of 2024. However, the company saw overall output growth during the first nine months of the year.

Copper Production Declines Amid Challenges at Key Mines

In the third quarter, Rio Tinto’s mined copper production dropped by 1% year-on-year, reaching 167,800 tonnes. This decline was largely due to a significant 44% decrease at the Kennecott mine in the United States, where geological issues, including ground movement, restricted access to high-grade ore, forcing the use of lower-grade material. However, the company’s Escondida mine in Chile showed a 15% increase in output, driven by higher ore grades, and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia experienced a 19% production boost due to increased operational efficiency.

For the first nine months of 2024, Rio Tinto's mined copper production increased by 8% year-on-year, totalling 494,700 tonnes. Meanwhile, refined copper production surged by 59% in Q3, reaching 54,300 tonnes, thanks to a 129% increase at Kennecott following its smelter and refinery rebuild in the previous quarter. This was partially offset by a 24% drop in Escondida’s refined copper output due to lower ore grades. Overall, Rio Tinto’s refined copper production for January-September was up by 39% to 179,600 tonnes.

Aluminium Production Experiences Setbacks

Rio Tinto's primary aluminium production in Q3 fell by 2% year-on-year to 809,000 tonnes. This also represented a 2% drop from the previous quarter. However, aluminium production for the first nine months of 2024 was up by 1%, totalling 2.46 million tonnes. The decline in Q3 was linked to operational issues at the New Zealand Aluminium Smelters subsidiary, where Meridian Energy halted plans for a 600 MW renewable hydrogen and ammonia project due to economic and logistical challenges. As a result, the company expects to ramp up the smelter at Tiwai Peninsula in New Zealand by the second quarter of 2025.

Rio Tinto is also focusing on sustainability. In August 2024, Rio Tinto entered a partnership with the Queensland state government in Australia to ensure the long-term future of its Boyne smelter by transitioning to renewable energy sources.

Bauxite Production Shows Growth

Bauxite production, another key commodity for Rio Tinto, increased by 8% year-on-year in Q3 to 15.1 million tonnes. This growth was driven by higher utilisation rates at Rio Tinto’s Amrun mine in Weipa, Australia, following the implementation of the company’s Safe Production System in 2021. The system uses data-driven insights to optimize maintenance scheduling and prevent bottlenecking. Total bauxite production for the first nine months of 2024 rose by 9% year-on-year, totalling 43.2 million tonnes.

Outlook for 2024

Looking ahead, Rio Tinto expects to produce between 660,000 and 720,000 tonnes of mined copper and 230,000 to 260,000 tonnes of refined copper for the remainder of 2024, indicating a steady production forecast for the rest of the year despite the challenges faced in Q3.

ICSG Copper Market Deficit 2026: Supply Tightens as Demand Holds

Copper Plate

The ICSG copper market deficit 2026 forecast signals faster tightening than expected. The ICSG copper market deficit 2026 follows a 2025 surplus as mine supply lags. As a result, the ICSG copper market deficit 2026 underscores structural demand strength across energy and manufacturing.

Supply growth slows while concentrates tighten

ICSG now projects a 150,000t refined copper deficit in 2026. The group still expects a 178,000t surplus in 2025. However, concentrate shortages are mounting into 2026. Disruptions at Grasberg and Kamoa reduced 2025 mine growth. ICSG cut mine growth to 1.4pc for 2025. It expects 2.3pc growth in 2026 as operations normalize. Oyu Tolgoi and Malmyz lead new supply, alongside smaller projects. Chile, Peru, and Zambia should recover into 2026.

Demand remains resilient, led by China and Asia

Refined copper use should rise 3pc in 2025 and 2.1pc in 2026. China remains the anchor at 58pc of global usage. Chinese demand should grow 3.3pc in 2025 and 1pc in 2026. Meanwhile, Asia outside China leads growth next year. The EU and Japan remain subdued. Energy transition spending and digitalization support demand. Expanding semis capacity in India also lifts consumption.

The refined balance flips as supply lags

Refined output rises 3.4pc in 2025, then only 0.9pc in 2026. Chinese smelting additions support 2025 gains. Secondary production grows 4.5pc in 2025 from stronger scrap flows. Yet concentrate scarcity caps electrolytic output in 2026. Higher recycling partially offsets but cannot close the gap. ICSG cautions that China stock changes add uncertainty.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper’s setup favors firm prices into 2026 as mined supply trails structural demand. Smelters with scrap flexibility gain advantage, while fabricators should secure term volumes before deficits deepen.