ICSG Copper Market Deficit 2026: Supply Tightens as Demand Holds

Copper Plate

The ICSG copper market deficit 2026 forecast signals faster tightening than expected. The ICSG copper market deficit 2026 follows a 2025 surplus as mine supply lags. As a result, the ICSG copper market deficit 2026 underscores structural demand strength across energy and manufacturing.

Supply growth slows while concentrates tighten

ICSG now projects a 150,000t refined copper deficit in 2026. The group still expects a 178,000t surplus in 2025. However, concentrate shortages are mounting into 2026. Disruptions at Grasberg and Kamoa reduced 2025 mine growth. ICSG cut mine growth to 1.4pc for 2025. It expects 2.3pc growth in 2026 as operations normalize. Oyu Tolgoi and Malmyz lead new supply, alongside smaller projects. Chile, Peru, and Zambia should recover into 2026.

Demand remains resilient, led by China and Asia

Refined copper use should rise 3pc in 2025 and 2.1pc in 2026. China remains the anchor at 58pc of global usage. Chinese demand should grow 3.3pc in 2025 and 1pc in 2026. Meanwhile, Asia outside China leads growth next year. The EU and Japan remain subdued. Energy transition spending and digitalization support demand. Expanding semis capacity in India also lifts consumption.

The refined balance flips as supply lags

Refined output rises 3.4pc in 2025, then only 0.9pc in 2026. Chinese smelting additions support 2025 gains. Secondary production grows 4.5pc in 2025 from stronger scrap flows. Yet concentrate scarcity caps electrolytic output in 2026. Higher recycling partially offsets but cannot close the gap. ICSG cautions that China stock changes add uncertainty.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper’s setup favors firm prices into 2026 as mined supply trails structural demand. Smelters with scrap flexibility gain advantage, while fabricators should secure term volumes before deficits deepen.