ICSG copper market surplus narrows, but inventories shift to the US

ICSG

The ICSG copper market surplus reached 251,000t in 1H 2025. This ICSG copper market surplus narrowed from 395,000t last year. However, refined output and inventory dynamics still temper tightness signals.

Supply lifted by Peru and the DRC, while Indonesia lags

Global mine output rose by 2.7pc on stronger runs at Las Bambas and Toromocho. Meanwhile, the DRC grew 9.5pc, led by Kamoa and TFM/KFM. Mongolia advanced 31pc on the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up. However, Indonesian output fell 36pc on weaker Grasberg and Batu Hijau. Chile gained 2.6pc despite drops at Collahuasi and Los Pelambres.

Refined production increased 3.6pc, driven by China and the DRC. Outside these two, refined output rose just 0.6pc. Chilean refined production fell 8.4pc amid smelter shutdowns. Meanwhile, secondary refined output rose 3.7pc, as Chinese scrap use strengthened. Therefore, the ICSG copper market surplus narrowed but persisted.

Demand concentrated in China as inventories migrate to Comex

Refined usage climbed 4.8pc in January–June. Chinese demand rose 7.5pc, lifting its share to 58pc. However, China’s net imports fell 2.6pc, reflecting stronger domestic supply. Consumption outside China grew 1pc, with Asia, MENA gains offsetting EU, Japan, and US declines.

Exchange inventories totaled 450,752t at July end, up 4.8pc from December. LME stocks fell 129,600t, while SHFE was unchanged. However, Comex inventories rose 150,873t, as metal shifted to the US on tariff concerns. The July LME cash price averaged $9,778/t, down 0.6pc month on month. The 2025 high was $10,120/t on 3 July; the low was $8,539/t on 9 April. As a result, the ICSG copper market surplus coexists with firm price support near $10,000/t.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This print confirms a market in balance rather than deficit. Watch Comex inflows, Chilean smelter uptime, and Indonesia’s recovery for price direction. A decisive break higher likely needs sustained stock draws, not just mine-side headlines.