ICSG Raises Global Refined Copper Surplus Forecast for 2025 Amid Supply Expansion

ICSG

Increased Output from DRC, China, and Indonesia Drives Market Shift

The global refined copper surplus forecast for 2025 has been significantly raised by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The group now projects a 289,000-tonne surplus, up 49% from the 194,000 tonnes forecasted in September 2024. This revision reflects a surge in refined copper supply from major producers, including China, Indonesia, India, and the DRC, outpacing modest demand growth.

Copper Mine and Refining Capacity Expansion Continues

Global copper mine production is forecast to rise 2.3% in 2025 to 23.5 million tonnes, driven by expansions at Kamoa-Kakula (DRC), Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia), and Malmyzhskoye (Russia). In parallel, refined copper output is expected to grow 2.9% to 28.3 million tonnes, with major contributions from new Chinese and Indonesian capacity. The trend will persist into 2026, with mine output reaching 24.1 million tonnes and refined output hitting 28.7 million tonnes.

Demand Outlook Weakens Amid Trade Uncertainty

Despite continued demand from the energy transition and digitalization, the ICSG has revised 2025 refined copper demand growth downward to 2.4%, totaling 28 million tonnes. The 2026 forecast is softer still, at 1.8%. Usage in China is expected to grow by 2% in 2025, but only 0.8% in 2026. Demand from the EU, Japan, and the U.S. remains weak, although India’s semiconductor expansion offers upside potential.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The updated global refined copper surplus forecast signals a recalibration of market dynamics in favor of supply. While long-term electrification trends remain bullish, short-term overcapacity may weigh on copper prices and reshape global trade flows.