Copper Market Deficit 2026: ICSG Signals Faster-Than-Expected Tightening

Copper

The copper market deficit 2026 is now central to ICSG’s latest forecast. The group now expects a 150,000t refined shortfall in 2026 after a 178,000t surplus in 2025. This copper market deficit 2026 outlook represents a sharp reversal from its April projection of a 209,000t surplus. The shift reflects weaker mine output and reduced concentrate availability from key producers such as Indonesia and the DRC. As a result, refined supply growth slows just as structural demand continues to build.

Slower mine growth and constrained smelting tighten copper balance

ICSG now sees global mine production rising by only 1.4pc in 2025 and 2.3pc in 2026. The downgrade for 2025 follows disruptions at Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa in the DRC. However, growth will still come from ramp-ups at Oyu Tolgoi, Russia’s Malmyz and smaller projects in Brazil, Iran, Ecuador and Morocco. The group expects a broader recovery in Chilean, Peruvian and Zambian output in 2026. Meanwhile, refined production is forecast to rise by 3.4pc in 2025 but only 0.9pc in 2026. The stronger 2025 growth reflects Chinese smelting expansion and new plants in the DRC, India and Indonesia. Primary refined output should grow 3pc in 2025, while scrap-based secondary output grows 4.5pc. However, concentrate tightness will cap electrolytic output in 2026, partly offset by more secondary production from recycling projects. This supply picture underpins the copper market deficit 2026 narrative, with mine and smelter constraints offsetting previous expectations of surplus.

Energy transition demand deepens copper market deficit 2026 risk

Global refined copper usage is forecast to grow by 3pc in 2025 and 2.1pc in 2026. China remains the key demand engine, accounting for about 58pc of global usage. Chinese demand is expected to rise by 3.3pc in 2025 and 1pc in 2026. Demand in the rest of the world should grow by 2.5pc next year, led by Asia, while the EU and Japan remain subdued. Structural demand drivers remain intact despite macro uncertainty. Manufacturing recovery, energy transition investment and digitalisation all support long-term consumption. Expanding semis capacity in India and other developing economies further reinforces baseline growth. ICSG stresses that its balances exclude changes in unreported Chinese or State Reserve Bureau stocks. Those stock movements can materially alter realised tightness in any single year. Even so, the combination of constrained mine supply and persistent structural demand implies tightening fundamentals. For investors and producers, the copper market deficit 2026 outlook signals growing sensitivity to new disruptions and project delays.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ICSG’s revised numbers confirm that the era of easy copper surpluses is ending faster than many expected. The copper market deficit 2026 projection highlights how modest supply shocks can flip balances in a structurally tight system. For miners, smelters and OEMs, this reinforces the need to secure long-term feedstock and expand recycling before deficits become the new normal.