Global Refined Copper Market Recorded January Surplus as Scrap Output Rose

Copper Coil

Global refined copper market data showed a January surplus as higher mine production and stronger secondary output outweighed moderate demand growth. The market recorded a surplus of around 17,000t, down from about 60,000t in January a year earlier.

The surplus was estimated at around 16,000t after adjusting for changes in Chinese bonded stocks. This indicated that the global refined copper market remained broadly balanced, but rising inventories and limited demand momentum prevented a tighter supply picture.

The global refined copper market was supported by higher mine output in Peru and Mongolia, while stronger scrap-based refined production in China lifted secondary supply. However, disruptions in Chile, Indonesia and parts of the DRC continued to limit a broader recovery in primary supply.

Mine Growth and Secondary Production Offset Supply Disruptions

Global mine production increased by 2.2% on the year to about 1.92mn t in January. Peru’s output rose by 3%, supported by higher production at Antamina, Las Bambas, Antapaccay and Toromocho.

Mongolia delivered a much stronger increase of around 35% after the continued ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground project. This helped offset weaker output in Chile, where mine production fell by around 3%.

Indonesian production remained significantly lower after the 2025 mud rush incident at Grasberg. In the DRC, overall output rose by about 1% as solvent extraction and electrowinning growth offset a sharp decline in concentrate output linked to disruption at Kamoa.

Global refined copper production increased by around 1% to 2.43mn t. Primary production declined by 1.4% to 1.98mn t, while secondary production rose by about 11% to roughly 445,000t, mainly because of higher scrap-based production in China.

Inventories and Modest Demand Growth Limited Market Tightness

Global apparent refined copper usage rose by around 2.5% to about 2.41mn t in January. Demand growth was led by regions outside China, with Asia, the Middle East and north Africa increasing usage by about 4%.

Chinese apparent demand grew by around 1%, but net refined copper imports into China fell by 44%. This mattered because China accounted for 58% of global refined copper usage.

Inventory growth reinforced the perception of adequate supply. Global refined copper stocks reached around 1.93mn t by the end of January, while combined exchange inventories climbed to about 1.2mn t by the end of February, the highest level since March 2003.

The data showed that supply disruptions had not disappeared, but mine ramp-ups and stronger secondary copper production were enough to offset losses. As a result, the global refined copper market stayed balanced, with rising stocks limiting near-term bullish pressure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper’s January surplus showed that scrap and new mine capacity can still soften the impact of regional disruptions. The key question is whether rising inventories reflect temporary timing effects or weaker underlying demand in a market still waiting for stronger electrification-led consumption.