Vale copper and nickel production outlook strengthens for 2025

Vale

Vale copper and nickel production outlook continues to improve as the Brazilian miner delivers a solid third quarter. The company reported higher copper output and broadly stable nickel production, keeping all base metal assets near the upper end of 2025 guidance. This Vale copper and nickel production outlook underscores the importance of Brazil and Canada within the group’s growth plan.

Copper growth keeps Vale on track with 2025 guidance

Vale copper and nickel production outlook is anchored by another strong performance from its copper division. Third-quarter copper production rose 6pc year-on-year to 90,800t, supported by consistent operations in Brazil and steady polymetallic output in Canada. Payable copper sales climbed 14.8pc to 90,000t, helped by smooth logistics and strong market demand.

In Brazil, Salobo drove copper growth with a 13pc output increase to 53,000t on robust mine-mill performance. Sossego slipped just 2pc to 19,900t after a week of planned maintenance, suggesting limited underlying weakness. In Canada, total copper production dipped 6pc to 18,400t as Vale ended copper-precipitate recovery at Thompson, even while Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay both delivered 11pc higher concentrate volumes.

Higher prices also lifted the Vale copper and nickel production outlook. Vale realised an average copper price of $9,818/t, up $833/t quarter-on-quarter, reflecting firmer LME benchmarks and lower treatment and refining charges. Nine-month copper output reached 274,300t, up 11.4pc year-on-year, keeping the group on pace for its 2025 guidance range of 340,000–370,000t.

Nickel production stable as new capacity comes online

Meanwhile, Vale copper and nickel production outlook on the nickel side remains stable despite heavy maintenance. Third-quarter nickel output slipped just 0.6pc to 46,800t, as refinery downtime offset strong mine performance. Nickel sales rose 5.4pc to 42,900t, although the realised nickel price eased 2.3pc to $15,445/t in line with softer LME levels.

In Canada, Sudbury’s finished nickel production fell 31pc to 8,500t because of work at the Copper Cliff refinery, even as ore mined jumped 45pc to 3.6mn t. Voisey’s Bay output surged 74pc to 10,700t, driven by the ramp-up of the Eastern Deeps and Reid Brook underground mines before a planned shutdown in September. Long Harbour refinery set a new quarterly production record, confirming the asset’s role as a core hub in Vale’s nickel chain.

Brazilian nickel production slipped 5pc to 5,900t, but Onça Puma held steady as it completed early maintenance linked to a second furnace start-up in late September. That new furnace adds 15,000 t/yr of capacity, lifting site capacity to 40,000 t/yr and setting the stage for growth from the December quarter onward. Nine-month nickel output reached 131,000t, up 14.4pc, allowing Vale to maintain its 2025 guidance of 160,000–175,000t and support a resilient Vale copper and nickel production outlook.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale copper and nickel production outlook highlights how disciplined maintenance and targeted brownfield investments can offset operational noise. Additional nickel capacity at Onça Puma and continued strength at Salobo position Vale to benefit from any upside in copper and nickel prices. For downstream users, the guidance stability signals that Vale remains a reliable anchor in an otherwise volatile base metals supply chain.

Jutai Nickel Cathode Production Adds Flexibility to China’s Downstream Nickel Chain

Zhejiang Jutai Plant

Jutai nickel cathode production has started at Zhejiang Jutai’s integrated refinery in Zhoushan, adding new capacity to China’s fast-expanding downstream nickel processing sector. The facility has 30,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity and can use mixed hydroxide precipitate or nickel matte as feedstock.

Jutai nickel cathode production strengthens the company’s ability to respond to changing nickel market conditions. The same Zhoushan site also hosts a 100,000 t/yr nickel sulphate project that was commissioned in October 2025, giving the complex around 55,000 t/yr of nickel capacity on a metal equivalent basis.

The new operation matters because China is rapidly converting imported nickel intermediates into higher-value products. Jutai nickel cathode production shows how MHP and matte supply are reshaping the country’s refining system beyond battery chemicals alone.

MHP and Matte Supply Drive New Refining Capacity

Nickel intermediates are becoming the foundation of China’s new nickel processing model. Growing supplies of MHP and nickel matte allow refiners to produce nickel sulphate, nickel cathode, and other downstream products depending on margins and customer demand.

Zhejiang Jutai’s Zhoushan complex reflects this flexible approach. The company can switch between nickel sulphate and nickel cathode output, which gives it commercial optionality across battery materials and refined metal markets. This flexibility is important when nickel prices, sulphate demand, and stainless steel-linked sentiment move in different directions.

The development also shows how China continues to capture value from Indonesia-linked nickel flows. As MHP and matte availability expands, Chinese refiners can build more diversified processing routes and strengthen their role in the global nickel value chain.

China Nickel Cathode Output Continues to Expand

China’s nickel cathode production reached 415,000t in 2025, up 24pc from the previous year. Output is expected to keep rising in 2026 as new capacity starts up, existing plants expand, and firmer nickel prices improve production economics.

Higher LME nickel prices are also supporting the sector. The average LME cash price reached $15,150/t in 2025, while the year-to-date average climbed to $17,482/t by late February, driven partly by reduced Indonesian nickel ore supply.

Shaanxi Jutai, Zhejiang Jutai’s parent company, already has experience in battery material production. Its Xi’an complex began producing nickel sulphate in 2018 and also produces cobalt sulphate, manganese sulphate, vanadium pentoxide, and molybdenum products. This gives the group a broader platform across strategic metals used in batteries, alloys, and industrial materials.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Jutai’s Zhoushan project highlights China’s strength in processing flexibility. The country is not only adding nickel capacity; it is building assets that can shift between battery chemicals and refined metal as market conditions change.

Sherritt Moa Nickel-Cobalt Pause Raises New Supply Concerns for 2026

Sherritt International

Sherritt Moa nickel-cobalt pause is now the company’s most immediate operational challenge for 2026. Sherritt said it will temporarily suspend mining at its Moa joint venture in Cuba because fuel deliveries cannot be fulfilled. The company also expects to place the processing plant on standby. As a result, Sherritt Moa nickel-cobalt pause is creating new uncertainty around upstream supply and production planning.

This matters because Moa is a key source of nickel and cobalt feed for Sherritt’s wider business. The company said it does not yet know when fuel deliveries to the site will resume. That makes the interruption more serious than a short maintenance event. Therefore, Cuba nickel-cobalt supply is now facing a disruption with no clear restart timeline.

Sherritt is using the downtime to complete maintenance activities at the processing plant. That should help the site use the pause more productively while operations remain constrained. However, the core issue is still fuel access, not plant readiness. Consequently, Sherritt Moa nickel-cobalt pause may last longer than the market would prefer.

Fort Saskatchewan Refinery Buys Some Time

Fort Saskatchewan refinery gives Sherritt some short-term protection against the Cuban disruption. The company said its Alberta refinery should see no immediate impact and will continue producing finished nickel and cobalt. Existing feed inventory is expected to last until mid-April. As a result, downstream production can continue for now.

That inventory buffer is important, but it is limited. If Moa mining and processing do not restart before the feed runs low, pressure could move downstream as well. Therefore, the Fort Saskatchewan refinery is buying time rather than fully solving the problem.

Nickel and Cobalt Output Guidance Now Looks Less Certain

Nickel and cobalt output guidance for 2026 now looks harder to defend. Sherritt had expected to produce 26,000-28,000t of finished nickel and 2,750-2,850t of finished cobalt this year. The company now says it will update guidance once it has greater certainty on a full restart. As a result, Sherritt Moa nickel-cobalt pause is directly affecting market expectations for annual output.

One part of the business remains stable. Sherritt said its power division, Energas, should continue operating without issues. That limits the disruption to the metals side of the portfolio. Meanwhile, investors and buyers will focus on how quickly fuel deliveries can return to Moa.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This disruption shows how vulnerable nickel and cobalt supply chains can remain to non-market factors such as fuel availability. Sherritt still has some downstream breathing room, but that buffer is not large. If Moa stays offline for too long, the company may need to materially reset its 2026 metals outlook.

Sumitomo Metal Mining to Take Full Ownership of Coral Bay Nickel Smelter

Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM)

Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM), a leading Japanese mining and trading conglomerate, has announced its intention to acquire the remaining 15.625% stake in Coral Bay Nickel Corporation (CBNC) from Nickel Asia Corporation (NAC). This acquisition will result in SMM holding 100% ownership of CBNC, solidifying its control over this crucial nickel processing facility. Currently, SMM holds an 84.375% share in CBNC.

CBNC: A Key Player in Nickel and Cobalt Production

CBNC, located in the Philippines, is notable for being the first hydrometallurgical metal processing plant in the country to utilize the High-Pressure Acid Leaching (HPAL) process. This advanced technology allows for the efficient extraction of nickel and cobalt from lateritic ores. The smelter boasts a production capacity of 24,000 tonnes per year of nickel and 2,500 tonnes per year of cobalt, making it a significant contributor to the global supply of these critical metals.

Strengthening SMM's Position in the Nickel Market

This strategic acquisition by SMM further expands its presence in the Philippine nickel sector. The company also holds a 75% stake in the Taganito HPAL nickel facility, another prominent HPAL plant in the Philippines. In addition to its Philippine operations, SMM maintains a strong nickel refining presence in Japan with its Niihama Nickel Refinery and Harima Refinery. The move to fully own CBNC reflects SMM's commitment to securing its nickel supply chain and strengthening its position as a key player in the global nickel market. Details regarding the transaction price and timeline have not yet been disclosed.

Sibanye-Stillwater Shifts Focus at Sandouville Nickel Refinery Amid European Battery Market Push

Sibanye-Stillwater, a prominent South African multi-metals mining group, announced yesterday its decision to terminate a key supply agreement at its Sandouville nickel refinery in France as part of a strategic shift to repurpose the facility. The refinery, previously focused on nickel sulphate production, will now be geared towards producing precursor cathode active material (pCAM) for the burgeoning European battery market. The termination of the supply deal is expected to be finalized by December 31, 2024.

The decision comes with significant financial implications, as Sibanye-Stillwater anticipates incurring costs of $37 million due to the termination. Despite this, the company plans to continue refining from inventory and maintaining sales through the first quarter of 2025.

The Sandouville refinery, acquired from Eramet in 2022, is undergoing a transformation driven by the GalliCam project, which focuses on shifting from nickel sulphate to pCAM production. This pivot is based on positive results from a scoping study, though a final decision will hinge on the outcomes of an ongoing feasibility study. Central to this transformation is the planned use of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) in a chloride medium, replacing the current use of nickel matte. Sibanye-Stillwater has emphasized that this new process will streamline production, reduce energy consumption, lower carbon emissions, and generate fewer waste products. The company filed a patent application for the chloride-MHP process in July.

A small-scale pCAM precipitation pilot is currently underway at the Sandouville site, with testing set to begin by the end of the third quarter of this year. This initiative marks a significant step in Sibanye-Stillwater’s strategy to position itself as a key player in the European battery supply chain.

Sherritt Cuba Sanctions Risk Clouds Moa Nickel-Cobalt Supply Chain

Sherritt

Sherritt Cuba sanctions risk has become a new uncertainty for Canadian metals miner and refiner Sherritt International after the US expanded its sanctions framework targeting Cuba. The company is consulting advisers and stakeholders to assess possible implications for its Cuban mining and refining exposure.

Sherritt Cuba sanctions risk centres on the company’s Moa joint venture with the General Nickel Company of Cuba. The operation mines and processes nickel and cobalt ore in Cuba before shipping mixed sulphide precipitate to Sherritt’s refinery in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta.

Sherritt Cuba sanctions risk has increased after US president Donald Trump issued an executive order on 1 May broadening existing Cuba-related restrictions. The order allows the US to sanction entities operating in Cuba’s metals and mining sector, as well as energy, defence, financial services, security and other parts of the Cuban economy.

The development matters because Moa is not only a Cuban mining asset. It is part of a cross-border nickel and cobalt processing chain that links Cuban ore production with Canadian refining capacity.

Moa Joint Venture Faces Sanctions and Fuel Supply Pressure

The Moa joint venture produces mixed sulphide precipitate containing nickel and cobalt. Ore is mined and processed at the Moa site in Cuba, then shipped to Alberta for refining.

This structure gives Sherritt exposure to two different risks. The first is sanctions policy. The second is physical supply continuity from Cuba.

The company had already suspended mining operations at Moa in February because of fuel supply problems in Cuba. That disruption reduced upstream feed availability and raised concerns over refinery inventory in Canada.

Sherritt said in February that its Fort Saskatchewan refinery feed inventory was expected to last until mid-April. The new sanctions uncertainty adds another layer of pressure to an already fragile supply chain.

Nickel and cobalt remain important materials for batteries, stainless steel, superalloys, industrial chemicals and defence-related supply chains. Any disruption to feedstock or refining routes can affect customers that rely on qualified supply.

The Moa operation is therefore strategically important despite its geopolitical complexity. It supplies intermediate material that can be refined into products serving North American industrial demand.

US Policy Adds Complexity to Critical Minerals Trade

The executive order broadens the list of possible sanctions targets linked to Cuba. Metals and mining are now explicitly included, raising compliance risk for companies with Cuban operations or Cuban-linked material flows.

For Sherritt, the immediate issue is clarity. The company must determine whether its ownership structure, product flows, financing relationships, logistics providers or customers could be affected by the expanded sanctions framework.

This matters because sanctions risk can affect more than direct operations. It can influence shipping, banking, insurance, payment processing, customer contracts and counterparty willingness to handle material.

The case also highlights a difficult reality in critical minerals policy. Western governments want secure nickel and cobalt supply, but some existing supply chains run through politically sensitive jurisdictions.

Canada’s refining capacity at Fort Saskatchewan is valuable, but its feedstock connection to Cuba creates exposure to US policy decisions. That makes Sherritt’s position more complicated than a conventional mining or refining business.

The outcome will depend on how broadly Washington applies the new order and whether Sherritt’s activities become directly targeted. Until then, customers and investors are likely to watch for guidance on operational continuity, legal exposure and feedstock availability.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sherritt’s situation shows that critical minerals security is not only about mine reserves or refining capacity. Political jurisdiction, sanctions exposure and feedstock logistics can determine whether a nickel-cobalt supply chain remains bankable.

Westwin Signs $350mn Nickel Supply Deal with Turkey’s Golden Age FZE

Westwin Elements

Expanding US Nickel Refining Reach

US nickel firm Westwin Elements has secured its first binding supply deal worth $350mn with Turkey’s Golden Age Free Zone Establishment (FZE). The Oklahoma-based company will provide 2,600 t/yr of carbonyl-nickel powder and class 1 nickel briquettes under the agreement. Golden Age FZE, a subsidiary of Apex Group-Turkiye, will serve as Westwin’s exclusive distributor and marketing partner across Turkey and neighboring regions.

Boosting Domestic Refining and Global Partnerships

Westwin operates the United States’ first nickel refinery and plans to expand output significantly. Production is set to grow from 18,000 t/yr to a nameplate capacity of 68,000 t/yr by 2034. The Turkish deal represents part of Westwin’s wider strategy to diversify its customer base and build supply contracts with original equipment manufacturers. Meanwhile, the agreement aligns with broader US government efforts to strengthen domestic critical minerals processing, with President Donald Trump backing accelerated refining in Oklahoma since taking office.

The nickel supply deal not only reinforces US-Turkey trade ties but also demonstrates Westwin’s ambition to establish a global footprint in nickel refining. By pairing domestic capacity growth with targeted international partnerships, the company is positioning itself as a long-term supplier of high-purity nickel products essential for advanced manufacturing and clean energy applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Westwin’s $350mn nickel deal highlights the importance of expanding US refining capacity while building global partnerships. With Turkey acting as a gateway to surrounding markets, Westwin gains both regional influence and strategic diversification. This agreement also underscores how nickel is becoming central to both geopolitical strategies and industrial supply chains.

China's Share of LME Nickel Stock Rises to Nearly 30%

China's share of nickel warrants in global London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses surged to almost 30% at the end of June, according to the LME's latest country of origin stock report. This marks a significant increase from 10% at the end of the previous quarter and 11% at the start of 2024.

Chinese-origin nickel on-warrant stocks totaled 25,152 tons at the end of June, accounting for 27.9% of total on-warrant LME stocks. Overall, total on-warrant LME stocks reached 90,294 tons by the end of June, representing an increase of 28.3% from the end of March and 56.3% since the beginning of the year. Inventories were last reported at 95,982 tons, the highest level since October 2021.

The LME has approved the warranting of 171,600 tons per year of new Chinese nickel capacity over the past year. Major producers Huayou and CNGR have been sending shipments of Class 1 metal to the exchange's Asian warehouses. Additionally, China has utilized excess Class 2 capacity to convert low-grade nickel into LME-deliverable nickel cathode, positioning itself as a significant player in the European market.

Meanwhile, Russian-origin Class 1 nickel, which has traditionally been the largest source of LME warrants, declined from 30% at the end of 2023 to 26.7% at the end of June amid geopolitical tensions. In April, the LME banned all Russian metals, including nickel produced on or after April 13, from its global warehouse system following new sanctions by the UK and US governments. Nickel produced prior to this date, labeled as Type 1 warrants, remains eligible for delivery and currently makes up all 24,180 tons stored. The LME also suspended the delivery of nickel products from the Finland-based Harjavalta refinery, owned by Russia's Norilsk Nickel, affecting the producer's cathode and briquette brands. Finland-origin nickel made up 1,308 tons of LME on-warrant stocks at the end of June.

Australia was the largest source of LME on-warrant nickel stocks in June, with 26,322 tons. However, China is expected to take the lead in the coming months as its Class 1 output accelerates and Australia's loss-making operations increasingly enter care and maintenance.

South African-origin nickel in LME warehouses totaled 7,734 tons at the end of June, while Canadian material amounted to 2,388 tons.

Nickel Production Halted at Ambatovy Plant Following Pipeline Damage

Sumitomo Nickel

Nickel and cobalt production at Madagascar's Ambatovy plant has been suspended after damage to a slurry pipeline, a crucial component for transporting ore from the mine to the refinery. The suspension, announced by the plant’s majority owner, Japanese trading group Sumitomo, comes as a setback for one of the few remaining active producers of nickel briquettes.

Damage Sparks Concerns Over Ambatovy's Viability

On September 25, Sumitomo revealed that the pipeline damage led to an ore discharge, prompting the decision to halt operations. While there were no injuries reported, an investigation is underway to determine the cause of the incident. The disruption has raised concerns, particularly as Ambatovy is already grappling with high production costs and market pressures.

Ambatovy is one of the few facilities still capable of producing nickel briquettes, a key form of refined nickel used in various industries. With BHP no longer actively producing briquettes and Russia's Norilsk Nickel resuming production at its Harjavalta refinery after a temporary suspension by the London Metal Exchange, the global supply chain has faced volatility. However, trading firms report that the ban on Norilsk's production has been lifted, and output is ramping up, offering some relief to the market.

Despite this, the long-term future of Ambatovy remains uncertain. Trading companies have pointed out that the plant's high production costs significantly exceed current benchmark nickel prices, by as much as $10,000 per tonne, raising questions about its economic viability. "Sumitomo must be considering the mounting losses right now," a trading source remarked. "They have a reputation for being slow decision-makers, likely hesitating to halt production because they could absorb the losses against profits elsewhere."

The financial challenges facing the project have been underscored by a recent debt restructuring plan filed in a London court, as confirmed by Sumitomo Metals Mining representatives. This move suggests that the company is actively seeking solutions to mitigate the financial strain caused by declining nickel prices and operational inefficiencies.

In terms of output, Ambatovy's nickel production for April to June was around 8,000 tonnes, marking a 20% decline from the same period last year. The suspension of production due to the pipeline damage adds to existing concerns over the plant's future, and it remains to be seen how Sumitomo will navigate these mounting challenges.

BHP exits Kabanga nickel project as Lifezone assumes full control

BHP

BHP exits Kabanga nickel project, selling its 17% stake to Lifezone Metals for up to $83mn. The transfer gives Lifezone 100% of Kabanga Nickel Ltd and full offtake rights. The move reflects BHP’s broader nickel retrenchment during a prolonged market slump.

Deal terms and strategic reset

Lifezone now owns KNL, which holds 84% of Tembo Nickel in Tanzania. The Tanzanian government retains a 16% stake in Tembo Nickel. Lifezone targets a 2026 final investment decision on the $2.49bn complex. The design pairs a mine with a hydrometallurgical refinery for battery-grade material. Nameplate output targets 50,000 t/yr of nickel in concentrate after ramp-up.

Project outlook and market headwinds

Nickel prices remain under pressure from Indonesian surpluses and softer demand. LME cash prices have fallen over 40% since early 2023. Economics across new projects have therefore tightened materially. BHP earlier placed Nickel West on care and maintenance. It plans a decision on that asset’s future by early 2027. Against this backdrop, BHP exits Kabanga nickel project to sharpen portfolio focus.

Lifezone frames Kabanga as a premier undeveloped sulphide deposit. Hydromet refining could deliver cleaner, higher-quality battery feed. The project aims to support EV supply chains with secure, traceable nickel. However, six years to full ramp leaves execution risk. Financing, power, and permitting will be decisive for timelines.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This handover trades super-major capital for specialist focus. If Lifezone proves its hydromet route at scale, Kabanga could reset African nickel. Yet market discipline and offtake financing must align before shovels truly matter.

Vale Nickel Output Rises 11pc in Q1 After Furnace Rebuild

VALE

Strong Recovery from Onça Puma Supports Global Nickel Supply

Brazilian mining giant Vale reported an 11pc year-on-year increase in nickel production for the first quarter of 2025, reaching 43,900 metric tonnes (t). This growth comes as the company completed the furnace rebuild at its Onça Puma mine, which had hindered production during the same period last year.

Production in Brazil reached 5,400t, up from zero a year earlier. Meanwhile, Canadian operations also performed strongly, delivering 20,000t, an 18pc rise. This included a 47pc increase at Voisey’s Bay and a 51pc surge at Thompson, driven by efforts to build inventory ahead of refinery maintenance later in the year.

Planned Maintenance and Nickel Price Pressure

Vale announced up to five weeks of scheduled maintenance at Creighton mine in Q3, with additional short-term outages planned at Thompson and Long Harbour through Q4.

Despite strong output, nickel sales volumes lagged behind production at 38,900t, though still up 18pc year-on-year.

However, average nickel prices dropped 4.4pc year-on-year to $16,100/t, reflecting a weaker London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel market. As a result, revenue gains from increased volume were partially offset by lower pricing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s output rebound underscores its operational resilience, especially as Canada strengthens its role in nickel supply. However, sustained LME price pressure may challenge margins, particularly during refinery maintenance later this year.

BHP to Temporarily Suspend Nickel Operations in Australia

BHP, a leading Australian resources firm, announced today its decision to temporarily suspend operations at its Western Australia nickel businesses starting October, with a review planned for February 2027. This suspension affects the Kwinana nickel refinery, Kalgoorlie nickel smelter, and the Mt Keith and Leinster mines. Additionally, the development of the West Musgrave project will be paused. A care and maintenance program will be implemented to ensure the mines' and infrastructure's safety and integrity during this period.

The decision comes amid an oversupply in the global nickel market, which has led to significant price drops. Benchmark prices for class 1 nickel on the London Metal Exchange have plummeted by approximately 20% over the past year, reaching $16,737 per ton on July 10, down from over $20,000 per ton in early July 2023.

"Like others in the Australian nickel sector, we have not been able to overcome the substantial economic challenges driven by a global oversupply of nickel," stated BHP President Geraldine Slattery.

This suspension raises concerns about the impact on the company's workforce and local communities. In response, BHP has committed to a A$20 million ($13.5 million) community fund to support local communities. The company will offer its frontline workers alternative roles within BHP or redundancy options. The Western Australia Labour government has introduced measures to assist affected workers, including training, upskilling, and job matching.

Following the transition period, BHP plans to invest around $300 million annually to support a potential restart of the facilities. This investment will focus on exploration to extend the resource life and preserve operational flexibility. The transition will begin in July, with operations ceasing in October and halting completely by December.

In February, BHP announced a review of its nickel operations and reported a non-cash impairment charge of $3.5 billion pre-tax on its Western Australia nickel business. With the temporary suspension, an additional $300 million pre-tax non-cash impairment charge will be sustained.

IGO lithium hydroxide refinery faces hurdles as Greenbushes lifts spodumene output

IGO

IGO lithium hydroxide refinery performance weighed on fiscal results despite a group profit. IGO lithium hydroxide refinery output rose year on year, but remained below guidance. As a result, management flagged more impairments and a cautious production outlook.

Kwinana update: IGO lithium hydroxide refinery under pressure

IGO reported a A$62.3mn profit for FY2024-25. However, the IGO lithium hydroxide refinery at Kwinana lost A$28.7mn. Equipment failures kept April–June production well below nameplate. Quarterly output reached 2,126t, up 60pc year on year. Full-year lithium hydroxide totaled 6,782t, almost doubling last year. Management expects further impairments of A$70–90mn for its 49pc JV stake. An earlier write-down of A$524.6mn already reduced the asset’s value. Train 2 construction remains halted while options are reviewed.

Upstream strength: Greenbushes delivers, Nova trims guidance

Greenbushes lifted second-quarter spodumene output to 340,203t, up 2.4pc on the year. Full-year production reached ~1.48mn t, within 1.35–1.55mn t guidance. Site cash costs averaged A$325/t in FY2024-25, with A$366/t in April–June. Spodumene sales rose 12pc on the quarter to ~411,855t after port delays eased. Guidance for FY2025-26 is 1.5–1.65mn t, with a third chemical grade plant due by late 2025. That plant could add up to 500,000 t/yr of concentrate. Nova produced 5,107t of nickel in April–June and 16,371t for the year. Next year’s guidance targets 15,000–18,000t nickel and 600–700t cobalt.

The downstream landscape in Kwinana is tightening. Covalent Lithium completed its 50,000 t/yr refinery, underscoring competitive pressure. Meanwhile, CEO Ivan Vella emphasized focus on Greenbushes with partners Tianqi Lithium and Albemarle. IGO guided 9,000–11,000t of lithium hydroxide for FY2025-26, reflecting operational caution. Therefore, the path to stable downstream margins remains challenging.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Kwinana’s setbacks confirm how hard first-wave hydroxide plants must fight for reliability. Upstream strength at Greenbushes helps cushion earnings, but downstream scale and uptime will decide value capture. Watch the Train 1 impairment, Train 2 timing, and IGO’s offtake strategy as prices and unit costs converge.

Nornickel Reports Increase in Nickel Output for Q2 2024

Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), the Russian multi-metals mining giant, has reported a significant year-on-year increase in its nickel production for the second quarter of 2024. This rise is primarily attributed to increased ore output from its mining assets and higher production volumes of premium-grade nickel, which is crucial for the electroplating and superalloys sectors.

From April to June, Nornickel's nickel production surged by 8.16% compared to the previous year, reaching a total of 48,304 tonnes. This marks a 15% increase from the first quarter, a growth driven by the company's implementation of an operational efficiency program.

First Half of 2024 Sees Slight Decline

Despite the robust performance in the second quarter, the first half of 2024 saw a slight decline in nickel production. The total output for the first six months fell by 1% year-on-year to 90,236 tonnes. This decrease was largely due to the scheduled repairs of the flash smelting furnace No. 2 at the Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant.

Shifting Market Focus

In response to the declining demand for its traditional cathode products, Nornickel is exploring integration opportunities with the electric vehicle (EV) battery market in Asia. The company is also increasing its focus on high-purity nickel segments. However, nickel products from its Harjavalta refinery face a potential suspension from the London Metal Exchange (LME) in October due to ESG compliance issues, complicating the market landscape.

Copper and PGM Production

Nornickel's copper production also saw a sharp increase in the second quarter. Through a process optimization program at its Norilsk Division copper plant, the company produced 108,812 tonnes of copper, marking a 14.7% rise from the same period in 2023. The first half of 2024 showed a 7% increase, reaching 218,575 tonnes.

Conversely, the production of platinum group metals (PGMs) experienced a downturn. Changes in the PGM ratio of processed raw materials led to a 3.42% drop in palladium output, totaling 735,000 ounces, and a 5.06% decline in platinum output, totaling 178,000 ounces in the second quarter. For the first half of the year, palladium production fell by 0.1% to 1.48 million ounces, while platinum output decreased by 3% to 356,000 ounces.

Future Projections

Nornickel has maintained its annual production guidance for 2024, expecting to produce between 184,000 and 194,000 tonnes of finished nickel. The company’s guidance for copper remains unchanged at 334,000 to 354,000 tonnes, and for platinum and palladium at 567,000 to 605,000 ounces and 2.30 to 2.45 million ounces, respectively.

Electra cobalt sulfate refinery restart boosts North American battery supply

Electra Battery Materials

Electra cobalt sulfate refinery restart marks a critical step in building a localized EV battery supply chain in North America. The Electra cobalt sulfate refinery restart in Ontario aims to deliver 6,500 t/yr of battery-grade cobalt from 2027. As a result, the Electra cobalt sulfate refinery restart strengthens regional security of supply and reduces reliance on imported cobalt chemicals.

Government-backed financing underpins refinery construction

Electra secured $82mn in project financing to restart construction after 2023 financial and supply chain setbacks. The funding includes $48mn from the US Department of Defense and the Canadian federal government, highlighting cobalt’s strategic importance. Meanwhile, Invest Ontario added C$17.5mn, reinforcing Ontario’s ambition to become a battery materials hub.

The refinery will produce battery-grade cobalt sulfate, a key precursor for high-nickel and cobalt-bearing cathode chemistries. This production will support EV and energy storage manufacturers seeking IRA-compliant and geopolitically secure feedstock. The project also fits broader efforts to onshore critical minerals refining in North America.

Integrated cobalt feedstock strategy across Canada and the US

Electra is already testing feedstock for the refinery at its Ontario laboratory. The company uses material sourced from historic Cobalt Camp and the Iron Creek copper-cobalt project in Idaho. This integrated approach links upstream mining projects directly with midstream refining capacity.

The firm plans a rapid scale-up in staffing as construction resumes. Headcount will rise from 30 to 150 early next year, supporting engineering, operations and ESG compliance. If execution stays on track, the refinery could become a cornerstone asset in the regional cobalt chemicals ecosystem.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Electra’s move shows how policy support and blended public-private capital can unlock stalled midstream projects in critical minerals. For cathode producers and automakers, an additional Western cobalt sulfate source offers both supply diversification and regulatory advantages. The key watchpoint now is execution risk on capex, commissioning, and reliable feedstock flows from Canada and the US.

Lifezone Adjusts Kabanga Nickel Mine Plan Amid Market Pressures

Lifezone Metals

Lifezone Condenses Kabanga Nickel Mine Strategy

Lifezone Metals will simplify its Kabanga nickel project in Tanzania to adapt to ongoing nickel price volatility. The company will pursue full-scale construction of a 3.4mn t/yr underground mine and concentrator rather than a phased approach. A hydromet demonstration plant in Kahama, 350km away, will precede a full-scale ecological refinery using hydrometallurgical technology.

Market Dynamics Prompt Strategic Shift

The decision to shift from phased development stems from weak global nickel prices and rising Indonesian supply. Nickel mine production dropped by 50,000t globally in 2024, while Indonesia increased output by 170,000t to 2.2mn t. Lifezone aims to complete a definitive feasibility study for Kabanga by mid-2025, reflecting the new plan.

Resource Update and PGM Recycling Focus

Measured and indicated resources at Kabanga rose 7.3pc to 46.8mn t, while inferred resources fell by 35.4pc. Grades remain strong: 2.09pc nickel, 0.29pc copper, and 0.16pc cobalt for measured and indicated resources. Meanwhile, Lifezone is advancing a joint venture with Glencore to recycle platinum group metals (PGMs) from catalytic converters in the US.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lifezone’s pivot illustrates the real-time flexibility required by mining companies in a volatile nickel market. With oversupply pressuring prices, optimizing scale and timing becomes critical. Simultaneously, its investment in hydrometallurgical refining and PGM recycling reflects a strategic bet on sustainability and future-facing technologies.

US Awards $20 Million to Electra for North America's First Cobalt Sulfate Refinery

The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) has awarded $20 million to Canadian company Electra Battery Materials to support the completion of North America's first cobalt sulfate refinery, located in Ontario. This strategic investment aims to boost the production of critical materials essential for lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs) and other advanced technologies.

The Ontario refinery, once operational, will produce 5,000 metric tons per year of precursor cathode active material (pCAM), a key component for EV batteries. The funding, sourced from the 2022 Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act, will help Electra overcome financial shortfalls that had stalled the $250 million project. As of mid-May, Electra reported needing an additional $60 million to finish construction.

Electra has yet to announce when the refinery will begin operations, but the company has secured key supply and offtake agreements. In April, Electra signed a three-year deal with Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) to source 3,000 metric tons of cobalt hydroxide annually. Additionally, in July 2023, Electra extended an offtake agreement with LG Energy Solutions, committing to supply 19,000 metric tons of cobalt sulfate over a five-year period starting in 2025.

This project aligns with the DOD's broader goal of strengthening domestic supply chains and reducing U.S. reliance on China, which currently dominates the global cobalt refining market. Electra is also exploring the possibility of establishing a second cobalt sulfate refinery in Quebec and constructing a nickel sulfate plant elsewhere in North America.

In addition to its cobalt production plans, Electra is advancing its efforts to recycle critical minerals from battery scrap. As part of a pilot program, the company has successfully recovered nickel, lithium, and cobalt from 40 metric tons of black mass. In June, the Canadian government awarded Electra $5 million to further these recycling initiatives.

The completion of Electra's cobalt sulfate refinery is expected to play a pivotal role in securing a stable and sustainable supply chain for North America's burgeoning EV market, contributing to the continent's energy independence and technological advancement.

Vale Explores Sale of Manitoba Nickel Mine to Optimize Mining Portfolio

Manitoba

Brazilian Mining Giant Reviews Options for Thompson Nickel Operations

Vale, the Brazilian multi-metals mining group, is evaluating a potential sale of its Thompson, Manitoba, nickel mining assets. The review includes two active mines, an adjacent milling facility, and exploration opportunities along the 135km-long Thompson Nickel Belt.

Strategic Portfolio Optimization and Copper Expansion

The company aims to streamline its mining portfolio while focusing on copper expanding production at its Carajás operations in Brazil. Additionally, Vale seeks to enhance the competitiveness of its vertically integrated nickel division by reallocating resources.

External Review and Nickel Production Growth

Vale has appointed an external advisor to oversee the review, which will conclude in H2 2025. The Thompson site produced 3,100 metric tons of nickel in Q3 2024, reflecting a 1,100-ton year-on-year increase, driven by improved Long Harbor refinery availability in Canada.

CNGR to End Investment in Nickel Joint Venture with Posco Amid Weak EV Market

Posco

China’s CNGR will liquidate its joint venture with South Korea’s Posco due to slowing electric vehicle demand.

Chinese battery materials producer CNGR has decided to terminate its investment in a nickel refinery joint venture with South Korea’s Posco Holdings. The joint venture, Posco CNGR Nickel Solution, will be liquidated as part of CNGR’s efforts to reduce investment risks and protect investor interests. This decision comes amid a slowdown in the global electric vehicle (EV) market, which has impacted the demand for battery materials.

Slowing EV Demand Leads to Strategic Adjustments

The global EV market has seen slower growth in 2024 compared to the previous year, which has affected the demand for battery materials like nickel and lithium. According to South Korean market intelligence firm SNE Research, the slowdown in EV sales has resulted in reduced battery installations. This trend prompted CNGR to reassess its joint venture with Posco, leading to the decision to dissolve the partnership.

Joint Venture and Production Facility Plans

CNGR and Posco first announced their joint venture plans in June 2023, aiming to build a production facility in Pohang, South Korea. The facility was designed to produce 50,000 tonnes per year of nickel sulphate and 110,000 tonnes per year of lithium-ion battery precursors. The plant was expected to support the production of batteries for 1.2 million EVs. However, with the weakening EV market, CNGR has chosen to withdraw from the venture to avoid further exposure to the slowing demand.

Conclusion

The termination of the joint venture with Posco marks a strategic shift for CNGR in response to the challenges facing the EV market. As demand for EVs continues to fluctuate, companies in the battery materials sector are re-evaluating their investments to mitigate risks and ensure financial stability.

Electra Cobalt Offtake Extension Secures LG Energy Solution’s Battery Supply

Electra

Electra cobalt offtake terms have been extended by LG Energy Solution, giving the South Korean battery maker longer access to battery-grade cobalt sulfate from Canada. The updated agreement shows how battery manufacturers continue to secure regional critical mineral supply even as cobalt demand faces changing battery chemistry trends.

Under the revised deal, LG Energy Solution will take 60% of Electra Battery Materials’ cobalt sulfate production through 2029. The agreement also includes an option to extend the offtake terms to 2032. LGES first agreed in 2022 to buy battery-grade cobalt sulfate from Electra for three years.

The Electra cobalt offtake update is strategically important because it supports a North American refining route for battery materials. Electra is developing a cobalt sulfate refinery in Ontario, Canada, with commercial production expected in the fourth quarter of 2027.

Ontario Refinery Becomes Key to Regional Cobalt Processing

Electra’s Ontario cobalt refinery has faced delays, but the project is now moving forward again. Financial constraints and supply chain disruptions paused construction in 2023, before Electra restarted work in November after approving a $73 million construction budget.

The company expects early commissioning to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026. Commercial production is planned for the fourth quarter of 2027. Once operating, the refinery is expected to initially produce 5,120 tonnes per year of contained cobalt.

Electra’s nameplate capacity could reach up to 6,500 tonnes per year of contained cobalt. This scale would not transform global cobalt supply alone, but it could provide an important regional source of battery-grade cobalt sulfate for North American and allied battery supply chains.

LGES Strengthens Critical Mineral Security Through Long-Term Supply

LG Energy Solution’s extended agreement shows that battery makers still value secure cobalt supply despite growth in lower-cobalt and cobalt-free chemistries. High-nickel battery systems and certain performance-focused applications continue to require reliable cobalt inputs.

The Electra cobalt offtake deal also supports supply chain diversification away from highly concentrated refining regions. For LGES, Canadian cobalt sulfate could help reduce procurement risk and support compliance with regional sourcing expectations in North America.

For Electra, the updated agreement strengthens commercial visibility before the refinery reaches production. Long-term offtake support can help improve project bankability, especially for critical mineral processing assets that require high capital spending before revenue begins.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Electra-LGES deal shows that cobalt has not disappeared from battery supply strategy. Even as chemistries diversify, battery-grade refining capacity in North America remains strategically valuable for automakers, cell makers, and policy-driven supply chains.