Eternal Nickel LME listing reshapes Indonesian nickel trade

Eternal Nickel

The Eternal Nickel LME listing marks a new phase for Indonesian nickel as PTENICO cathodes move toward global benchmark status and add fresh liquidity to a market already facing surplus pressure. Eternal Nickel, a subsidiary of China’s Tsingshan Group, has applied for the Eternal Nickel LME listing with full-plate nickel cathodes produced at Weda Bay in North Maluku, where nameplate capacity reaches 50,000 t/yr. As a result, the Eternal Nickel LME listing would cement Indonesia’s role in refined nickel, not just intermediate products, while also deepening the pool of deliverable brands for price discovery on the London Metal Exchange.

Eternal Nickel LME listing adds to Asian LME nickel capacity

The proposed Eternal Nickel LME listing comes only months after the first Indonesian brand, DX-zwdx, secured LME approval in 2024, lifting new Asian registered capacity to 232,600 t since mid-2023. PTENICO cathodes would be the second Indonesian nickel brand listed, reinforcing the rapid shift of refined nickel capacity toward Indonesia as high-pressure acid leach and conversion projects mature. Meanwhile, surplus nickel has been flowing into LME warehouses because many producers find LME delivery the most efficient route to immediate liquidity. LME nickel stocks climbed to 224,700 t in September from 162,336 t in January, with Chinese-origin material surging to 152,454 t from 81,564 t. Therefore, any additional Indonesian cathode tonnage registered on the LME is likely to weigh further on prices, even if it improves tradability and hedging options for consumers.

Surplus stocks pressure prices as more Indonesian cathodes line up

The Eternal Nickel LME listing would arrive in a market where the official three-month LME nickel price has stayed rangebound around $15,000–16,000/t, averaging just $15,432/t in 2024. However, producers continue to commission new cathode capacity and are actively preparing LME applications, treating warehouses as an outlet for surplus production rather than cutting supply. Indonesian producer Nickel Industries Limited plans to add nickel cathode output, while major producer QMB is upgrading its technology to produce LME-grade cathodes, both from plants in Central Sulawesi. As these projects advance, more Indonesian cathode brands are expected to seek registration, reinforcing the structural oversupply narrative and keeping spot prices under pressure, even as stainless steel and battery sectors look for cost advantages.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Eternal Nickel LME listing underlines how Indonesia is moving rapidly up the nickel value chain from ore and intermediates to globally deliverable cathode brands. For traders and hedgers, more Indonesian brands enhance liquidity and flexibility, but they also lock in a heavier overhang of exchange stocks that can cap rallies. Strategically, the trend raises important questions for non-Indonesian producers: competing on cost alone against the Weda Bay and Sulawesi hubs will be tough, making product differentiation, specialty alloys and long-term customer partnerships more critical than ever.

LME Nickel approval boosts deliverable supply

LME

LME nickel approval for China’s Jien expands deliverable supply and pressures class-1 prices as inventories swell across SHFE and LME. The LME nickel approval covers full-plate and cut cathodes made after 19 February 2024 at Jilin, with 5,000 t/yr capacity. As a result, total newly approved Chinese class-1 capacity on the LME now stands at 126,600 t/yr. The LME nickel approval arrives amid a surplus of class-1 metal that continues to funnel into exchange warehouses.

Deliverable supply expands after LME nickel approval

Jien’s fast-track listing enlarges the pool of LME-deliverable cathode and improves physical availability. Meanwhile, sellers keep delivering excess class-1 nickel into warehouses, seeking carry returns and balance-sheet relief. This flow has weighed on outright prices and loosened time spreads in recent weeks.

Inventories jump as sellers deliver into warehouses

Exchange stocks have climbed notably since mid-April. SHFE inventories rose from 22,541t to 25,451t, while LME inventories surged from 75,516t to 209,082t. Therefore, the class-1/class-2 spread has tightened, reducing premiums over nickel pig iron. Class-1 nickel is high-purity cathode or electrowon metal typically listed on the LME. Class-2 nickel, mainly NPI from China and Indonesia, contains about 10–14% nickel and feeds stainless mills.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Jien’s listing strengthens China-to-LME optionality and deepens liquidity in class-1 units. However, the approval lands into a stock-heavy market, so price support likely hinges on destocking or a demand surprise from batteries or aerospace alloys. Watch LME/SHFE arbitrage and cash-to-three-month spreads for early signals of a turn.

China's Share of LME Nickel Stock Rises to Nearly 30%

China's share of nickel warrants in global London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses surged to almost 30% at the end of June, according to the LME's latest country of origin stock report. This marks a significant increase from 10% at the end of the previous quarter and 11% at the start of 2024.

Chinese-origin nickel on-warrant stocks totaled 25,152 tons at the end of June, accounting for 27.9% of total on-warrant LME stocks. Overall, total on-warrant LME stocks reached 90,294 tons by the end of June, representing an increase of 28.3% from the end of March and 56.3% since the beginning of the year. Inventories were last reported at 95,982 tons, the highest level since October 2021.

The LME has approved the warranting of 171,600 tons per year of new Chinese nickel capacity over the past year. Major producers Huayou and CNGR have been sending shipments of Class 1 metal to the exchange's Asian warehouses. Additionally, China has utilized excess Class 2 capacity to convert low-grade nickel into LME-deliverable nickel cathode, positioning itself as a significant player in the European market.

Meanwhile, Russian-origin Class 1 nickel, which has traditionally been the largest source of LME warrants, declined from 30% at the end of 2023 to 26.7% at the end of June amid geopolitical tensions. In April, the LME banned all Russian metals, including nickel produced on or after April 13, from its global warehouse system following new sanctions by the UK and US governments. Nickel produced prior to this date, labeled as Type 1 warrants, remains eligible for delivery and currently makes up all 24,180 tons stored. The LME also suspended the delivery of nickel products from the Finland-based Harjavalta refinery, owned by Russia's Norilsk Nickel, affecting the producer's cathode and briquette brands. Finland-origin nickel made up 1,308 tons of LME on-warrant stocks at the end of June.

Australia was the largest source of LME on-warrant nickel stocks in June, with 26,322 tons. However, China is expected to take the lead in the coming months as its Class 1 output accelerates and Australia's loss-making operations increasingly enter care and maintenance.

South African-origin nickel in LME warehouses totaled 7,734 tons at the end of June, while Canadian material amounted to 2,388 tons.

Lujia Nickel LME Listing: China’s New Brand Set to Lift Nickel Liquidity

Lujia Nickel

Lujia Nickel LME listing moves a step closer after the producer filed its application. The Taizhou plant makes 6,000 t/yr of nickel cathode. As a result, the Lujia Nickel LME listing could deepen liquidity and tighten spreads. Meanwhile, rising Chinese stocks reshape benchmark pricing. Therefore, the Lujia Nickel LME listing matters for traders, hedgers, and battery supply chains.

More Chinese brands are reshaping LME nickel

Chinese brands now dominate new LME registrations. If approved, Lujia would be the seventh since 2023. Consequently, cumulative new Chinese capacity on the LME would reach 132,600 t/yr. This trend supports tighter bid-ask spreads and improved deliverability. It also expands optionality for off-take and financing structures.

Stocks surge while fast-track window closes

LME nickel stocks climbed to 198,948t in July from 35,694t last year. Delivery into warehouses has absorbed surplus Chinese metal. However, the LME fast-track approval system expires at year-end. Lujia’s timing could be pivotal for listing speed. Greater on-warrant supply can pressure nearby spreads and rental costs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s brand proliferation is resetting the nickel trade’s logistics map. Expect continued convergence between physical premia and LME values. Watch how new listings influence Class 1 availability for battery and alloy buyers.

Nickel Trading Surge Drives LME Volume Growth in 2024

LME Nickel

Average daily volumes (ADV) for futures and options traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME)—including aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin—rose by nearly a fifth in 2024, reaching the fourth-highest level on record, the exchange reported.  The LME recorded ADV of 664,698 lots, up 18.2% compared to 2023. This surge was primarily fueled by a dramatic increase in nickel derivatives trading, which jumped by 58.8% to 65,094 lots, approaching 2021 levels.  Trading volumes had been suppressed in 2022 and 2023 following a short squeeze in Q1 2022 that led to a brief trading suspension and a disconnect between prices and physical fundamentals. The 2024 surge signals a substantial return of both speculative trading and hedging activity.

Increased Nickel Availability and Shift in Stock Origins

The annual volume for nickel also benefited from improved availability in 2024, following the registration of four new brands, originating from China and Indonesia. This led to a sharp increase in stocks held in LME warehouses. On-warrant LME nickel stocks closed the year at 148,674 tonnes, more than doubling from 57,780 tonnes at the end of 2023.  Furthermore, 2024 saw a shift in the origin of nickel stocks in LME warehouses.  Chinese-origin nickel stocks now represent the majority of warrants, replacing Russian and/or Australian stocks. As of November, Chinese-origin nickel comprised 42% of all LME nickel stocks, up from 11% at the end of 2023.

Other Metals See Increased Trading Volumes

Trading in other metals contracts also saw growth in 2024. Tin contracts ADV rose by 25.9% to 6,284 lots, while zinc ADV increased by 16.9% to 104,318 lots. Copper and aluminum ADV saw increases of 10% and 15.8%, reaching 152,291 lots and 262,390 lots, respectively. Lead contract ADV also rose by 18.2% to 68,565 lots, the LME stated.

Jutai Nickel Cathode Production Adds Flexibility to China’s Downstream Nickel Chain

Zhejiang Jutai Plant

Jutai nickel cathode production has started at Zhejiang Jutai’s integrated refinery in Zhoushan, adding new capacity to China’s fast-expanding downstream nickel processing sector. The facility has 30,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity and can use mixed hydroxide precipitate or nickel matte as feedstock.

Jutai nickel cathode production strengthens the company’s ability to respond to changing nickel market conditions. The same Zhoushan site also hosts a 100,000 t/yr nickel sulphate project that was commissioned in October 2025, giving the complex around 55,000 t/yr of nickel capacity on a metal equivalent basis.

The new operation matters because China is rapidly converting imported nickel intermediates into higher-value products. Jutai nickel cathode production shows how MHP and matte supply are reshaping the country’s refining system beyond battery chemicals alone.

MHP and Matte Supply Drive New Refining Capacity

Nickel intermediates are becoming the foundation of China’s new nickel processing model. Growing supplies of MHP and nickel matte allow refiners to produce nickel sulphate, nickel cathode, and other downstream products depending on margins and customer demand.

Zhejiang Jutai’s Zhoushan complex reflects this flexible approach. The company can switch between nickel sulphate and nickel cathode output, which gives it commercial optionality across battery materials and refined metal markets. This flexibility is important when nickel prices, sulphate demand, and stainless steel-linked sentiment move in different directions.

The development also shows how China continues to capture value from Indonesia-linked nickel flows. As MHP and matte availability expands, Chinese refiners can build more diversified processing routes and strengthen their role in the global nickel value chain.

China Nickel Cathode Output Continues to Expand

China’s nickel cathode production reached 415,000t in 2025, up 24pc from the previous year. Output is expected to keep rising in 2026 as new capacity starts up, existing plants expand, and firmer nickel prices improve production economics.

Higher LME nickel prices are also supporting the sector. The average LME cash price reached $15,150/t in 2025, while the year-to-date average climbed to $17,482/t by late February, driven partly by reduced Indonesian nickel ore supply.

Shaanxi Jutai, Zhejiang Jutai’s parent company, already has experience in battery material production. Its Xi’an complex began producing nickel sulphate in 2018 and also produces cobalt sulphate, manganese sulphate, vanadium pentoxide, and molybdenum products. This gives the group a broader platform across strategic metals used in batteries, alloys, and industrial materials.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Jutai’s Zhoushan project highlights China’s strength in processing flexibility. The country is not only adding nickel capacity; it is building assets that can shift between battery chemicals and refined metal as market conditions change.

Macquarie Nickel Price Outlook Turns More Bullish on Indonesia Ore Tightness

Macquarie

Macquarie nickel price outlook has turned more constructive for 2026. The bank lifted its LME nickel forecast to $17,750/t from about $15,000/t. It argues that Indonesia ore tightness is slowing supply growth after years of surplus. As a result, Macquarie nickel price outlook now points to a firmer market floor.

This change matters because Indonesia has driven most global nickel growth in recent years. Rapid expansion in smelting and HPAL capacity pushed refined output well ahead of demand. However, tighter mining quotas and rising domestic ore prices are now changing that pattern. Therefore, the nickel market balance is starting to look less loose.

Indonesia Ore Tightness Is Reshaping the Supply Story

Indonesia ore tightness is becoming the key issue in the global nickel market. Macquarie expects lower mining quotas in 2026 to constrain laterite feedstock for smelters and HPAL projects. That will likely slow refined nickel output growth even as downstream capacity still expands. Consequently, upstream limits are beginning to matter more than downstream ambition.

This shift could also reduce the pace of stock builds. Macquarie expects exchange inventories and producer stocks to stabilize rather than keep rising sharply. That would remove part of the pressure that has weighed on nickel prices. As a result, the market may start pricing scarcity risk more seriously.

Macquarie now sees the 2026 surplus at only 89,000t, down from its earlier 250,000t view. It also expects global nickel supply to dip slightly this year. That is a major change from the 10pc supply growth seen in 2025. Therefore, the nickel market balance looks materially tighter than before.

Stainless Steel Demand Still Anchors the Market

Stainless steel demand remains the strongest pillar of nickel consumption. Macquarie expects stainless production to rise 4.4pc to 67mn t in 2026. That should keep underlying nickel demand firm even as battery chemistry trends become more mixed. Consequently, stainless steel continues to anchor the nickel demand profile.

Battery demand is still growing, but not explosively. Lower-nickel chemistries such as LFP have reduced expectations for EV-related nickel intensity. Even so, Macquarie still expects nickel use in batteries to rise 5pc to 542,000t in 2026. Therefore, battery demand is still supportive, just less dominant than some expected.

This demand mix gives the market a more diversified foundation. Stainless steel provides steady volume support, while batteries still add incremental growth. That combination is healthier than relying on one major demand theme alone. As a result, Macquarie nickel price outlook reflects stronger balance on both sides of the market.

Higher Prices May Be Needed to Sustain Non-Indonesian Supply

Higher nickel prices may now be necessary to keep non-Indonesian supply alive. Macquarie said many producers outside Indonesia remain under margin pressure near or below $15,000/t. Some may need $18,000-19,000/t to operate profitably and justify reinvestment. Therefore, a higher LME nickel forecast also reflects a higher incentive price.

Indonesia still remains the lowest-cost producer on average. However, its cost advantage is narrowing as ore gets more expensive and regulations tighten. That reduces the chance of another unchecked supply wave. Consequently, the market may be moving away from chronic oversupply and toward more managed growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Macquarie’s upgrade matters because it reframes nickel from an oversupply story into an upstream constraint story. The biggest change is not demand. It is that Indonesia may no longer be able to expand ore and refined supply without friction. If that holds, nickel prices may stay firmer than the market has been used to.

LME Harjavalta Nickel Suspension Puts Class 1 Nickel Warrants Under Review

Harjavalta Nickel

LME Harjavalta nickel suspension will stop new warranting of Norilsk Nickel Harjavalta’s primary nickel briquettes and cathodes from 19 June. The London Metal Exchange said no further deliveries of these Finnish-produced products will be accepted for warranting after that date.

The LME Harjavalta nickel suspension does not remove existing warranted metal from the system. Material already on warrant can continue to circulate, but once cancelled after the deadline, it will not be eligible for re-warranting.

The move matters because Harjavalta is a key European source of class 1 nickel. Its cathodes and briquettes are used in stainless steel, battery materials, alloy production, and other high-purity nickel applications.

Administrative Review Appears More Likely Than Supply Disruption

Market participants view the LME Harjavalta nickel suspension as likely procedural rather than a sign of quality or production problems. The three-month lead time suggests the issue may relate to documentation, compliance, or brand listing requirements.

The LME regularly reviews listed brands to ensure producers meet exchange rules. These rules include responsible sourcing standards and documentation obligations, which have become more important across metals markets.

That interpretation limits the immediate market impact. Traders do not expect a major disruption to European nickel availability or premiums, especially because other high-grade nickel brands remain available within the broader class 1 supply pool.

Class 1 Nickel Flexibility Reduces Near-Term Market Risk

Harjavalta material remains important, but the European market has some flexibility through substitution between high-grade forms such as cathodes, briquettes, and rounds. This flexibility should reduce the short-term impact of the warranting suspension.

The spot market may also see limited direct disruption because Harjavalta has reportedly committed most near-term capacity to term contracts. That means spot availability was already constrained before the LME announcement.

Still, the suspension highlights the rising importance of exchange compliance in critical metal supply chains. For nickel buyers, warrant eligibility, responsible sourcing documentation, and brand approval status are becoming part of supply risk management.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The LME Harjavalta nickel suspension is unlikely to trigger an immediate supply shock, but it shows how administrative compliance can affect market liquidity. In class 1 nickel, exchange status now matters almost as much as physical availability.

SHFE Indonesian Nickel Cathode Brands Strengthen Indonesia’s Class I Nickel Role

The Shanghai Futures Exchange

SHFE Indonesian nickel cathode brands have gained a major credibility boost after the Shanghai Futures Exchange approved two Indonesian-produced nickel cathode brands for delivery against SHFE contracts. The approvals cover PTENICO from Eternal Nickel Industry and DX zwdx from CNGR Dingxing New Energy.

The approvals mark an important step in Indonesia’s move from nickel ore and intermediate products toward exchange-deliverable Class I nickel. Indonesia has already become the world’s dominant nickel processing hub, but exchange approval gives its refined metal greater financial-market recognition.

SHFE Indonesian nickel cathode brands also reinforce the role of Chinese-backed industrial parks in building Indonesia’s downstream nickel value chain. Both approved producers are linked to major Chinese groups with strong positions in stainless steel or battery materials.

The development matters because exchange-deliverable nickel sits at the intersection of physical supply, futures market liquidity and industrial procurement. Approval by SHFE gives the brands wider acceptance among Chinese market participants and strengthens Indonesia’s role in Class I nickel trade.

Tsingshan and CNGR Extend Indonesia’s Refined Nickel Platform

Eternal Nickel Industry’s PTENICO brand was approved by SHFE after previously being listed on the London Metal Exchange on 16 December 2025. The company is a subsidiary of Chinese stainless steel producer Tsingshan Holding Group.

The plant is located in the Weda Bay Industrial Park in Halmahera, North Maluku. It uses an electrolytic process and has 50,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity, with nickel content of 99.96%.

Tsingshan’s involvement is strategically important. The group transformed global nickel markets through Indonesian nickel pig iron and stainless steel expansion, and it is now extending that influence into refined Class I nickel.

CNGR Dingxing New Energy’s DX zwdx brand was also approved by SHFE. The plant is located at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park and also uses an electrolytic process. It has 50,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity, with nickel content of 99.96%.

CNGR Dingxing is a subsidiary of CNGR, a major Chinese lithium-ion battery cathode active material precursor producer. This gives the brand a direct connection to battery materials supply chains, not only stainless steel demand.

The LME accepted CNGR Dingxing’s Indonesian nickel cathode brand in May 2024. It also approved cobalt cathode produced by CNGR in Qinzhou, Guangxi, in March, showing the company’s expanding exchange-approved metals footprint.

Together, PTENICO and DX zwdx represent 100,000 t/yr of Indonesian nickel cathode capacity. Their SHFE approval gives Indonesia a stronger position in futures-linked refined nickel supply.

Exchange Approval Changes Nickel Market Positioning

The two brands are the first Indonesian-produced nickel cathodes approved by SHFE for delivery. That is significant because Indonesia’s nickel rise was initially built around ore, nickel pig iron, ferronickel, matte and mixed hydroxide precipitate.

Exchange-deliverable cathode is a different market category. It requires tighter quality control, brand recognition and acceptance by financial and physical market users.

SHFE has approved Chinese-produced nickel cathode brands totalling 121,000 t since 2024. Adding Indonesian brands expands the pool of deliverable material and shows how Indonesia is being integrated into China’s nickel pricing and delivery system.

This could gradually influence nickel market structure. More deliverable Indonesian metal may improve flexibility for Chinese buyers, increase acceptable supply for futures settlement and strengthen the link between Indonesian production and Chinese exchange pricing.

The approvals also come during a period of Class I nickel oversupply. LME and SHFE inventories have risen as new refined nickel capacity has entered the market faster than demand growth from batteries and alloys.

Against that backdrop, brand approval can become a competitive advantage. Producers with exchange-deliverable status may have better access to financing, trade channels and customers that require recognised specifications.

For Indonesia, the approval supports a broader industrial policy objective. The country wants to capture more value from its nickel resources by moving beyond raw ore and intermediate exports into higher-value metal and battery materials.

For China, the approvals deepen supply-chain integration with Indonesian assets. Chinese companies are not only investing in Indonesian mines and smelters; they are building exchange-recognised refined metal capacity that can serve Chinese industrial and financial markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SHFE approval of Indonesian nickel cathode brands confirms that Indonesia is moving deeper into Class I nickel, not only bulk stainless and battery intermediates. The strategic issue now is whether this new exchange-deliverable capacity strengthens market liquidity or adds further pressure to an already oversupplied refined nickel market.

US Nickel Premiums Hold Steady as Buyers Await Market Clarity

US Nickel

US nickel premiums remained stable this week as market activity waned, with spot market buyers largely sitting out until the first quarter of 2025.

Nickel Premiums Unchanged Amid Market Lull

Spot premiums for refined nickel in the US held steady this week:

• Full truckload melting grade, 4x4-inch cathodes: Assessed at 60-65¢/lb.
• Briquettes: Assessed at 30-35¢/lb.

The unchanged premiums reflect subdued market activity, with no spot sales reported. Industry insiders expect this trend to persist through December, potentially extending into the late first quarter of 2025. Reduced order volumes from specialty stainless producers have further softened demand.

LME Nickel Prices and Stock Levels

Global nickel stockpiles in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses increased by 3.4%, reaching 165,384 metric tonnes, up from 159,966 tonnes the previous week. This rise in inventories aligns with the broader slowdown in demand.

The LME nickel daily cash month-to-date average for December was $15,700/t ($7.12/lb), down from November’s average of $16,740/t ($7.14/lb). The official three-month LME nickel price settled at $15,955/t on Thursday, reflecting a 0.5% week-over-week decrease.

Voisey's Bay Expansion: A Major Development

In a noteworthy development, Brazilian mining giant Vale announced the completion of its Voisey’s Bay mine expansion in Canada. The transformation from open-pit to underground mining enables an annual nickel production capacity of 45,000 tonnes.

• The project, which began in 2018, cost $2.94 billion and significantly bolsters nickel supplies, particularly to the US market.

As Voisey's Bay ramps up production, it is expected to play a key role in stabilizing supply chains amid evolving market dynamics.

US Nickel Market Flat Amidst Excess Inventories

US Nickel

The US spot premiums for refined nickel have remained stagnant this week due to sluggish demand and abundant consumer inventories.  This market flatness reflects a cautious approach from buyers who are well-stocked for the near future.

Premium Assessments and Demand Outlook

Nickel premiums for full truckload melting grade, 4x4-inch cathodes, were assessed at 60-65¢/lb, while premiums for briquettes were assessed at 30-35¢/lb. Both remained unchanged from the previous week.  Many consumers are currently holding excess inventories, which is limiting nickel demand forecasts through the first quarter of the year.  Market sources suggest that most buyers are unlikely to actively participate in the spot market for additional nickel until early summer.  This points to a period of potentially subdued activity in the US nickel market.

Global Supply Dynamics and Price Outlook

Despite the current inventory surplus, potential supply-side changes could impact the market later in the year.  Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, is reportedly considering cutting production by up to 35%, according to sources.  Such a significant reduction could strain global nickel supply and potentially help nickel prices recover after they reached a four-year low in December.  However, overall, nickel is still expected to be in surplus this year. 

Global nickel stocks in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses totaled 164,310 metric tonnes (t), up 1.1% from 162,474t the previous week. Inventories have increased significantly in 2024, rising by 150% or 96,378t.  

The LME nickel daily cash month-to-date average for January is $15,055/t ($6.83/lb), compared to the full-month December average of $15,471/t ($7.02/lb). The official three-month LME nickel settled at $15,450/t on Thursday, up 1% from $15,295/t a week ago on January 2nd.  These price fluctuations and inventory levels will continue to be closely watched by market participants.

LME Fined £9.2M by UK Regulator Over 2022 Nickel Market Crisis

LME

FCA Cites Inadequate Controls and Staffing Failures During Historic Short Squeeze

FCA Penalizes LME for Mishandling Nickel Price Surge

The London Metal Exchange (LME) has been fined £9.2 million ($11.9 million) by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) following its investigation into the March 2022 nickel short squeeze. The FCA concluded that the exchange lacked sufficient systems and controls to manage extreme volatility during the weeklong price spike, when nickel prices surged past $100,000 per tonne.

Between March 4–8, 2022, the nickel market experienced unprecedented stress. The crisis was triggered by massive over-the-counter short positions held by Tsingshan, a leading Chinese nickel producer. In response, the LME suspended nickel trading for eight days and controversially canceled all trades executed on March 8.

Regulators Cite Lack of Price Bands and Untrained Staff

The FCA identified LME’s failure to use automatic volatility controls, such as price bands, as a major weakness. Furthermore, the exchange’s decision-making process was too reliant on senior staff who were unavailable during Asian trading hours, when the crisis escalated.

At the height of the squeeze, junior operations staff—lacking crisis training—disabled price bands instead of escalating the situation. This action allowed nickel prices to rise faster than they should have. The exchange’s failure to report abnormal activity to its Hong Kong office worsened the volatility.

LME Implements Reforms, Wins Litigation Battles

The LME accepted the FCA’s findings and qualified for a 30% fine reduction. Since the crisis, the exchange has introduced daily price limits across all metals and improved oversight of OTC positions. These reforms aim to prevent similar breakdowns in market order.

Legal fallout followed the LME’s decision to cancel trades, with Elliott Management and Jane Street suing for losses of $456 million and $15 million, respectively. However, the UK High Court ruled in LME’s favor, and the UK Supreme Court recently denied Elliott permission to appeal.

The FCA’s decision underscores the critical need for robust trading oversight, especially during periods of extreme market stress.

Nickel Prices Drop Amid US 'Liberation Day' Tariffs

Nickel

Global Market Faces Recession Fears as Tariffs Hit Nickel Prices

Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) plunged to their lowest levels since October 2020, following the announcement of the US "liberation day" tariffs. These tariffs, introduced on April 2, were more substantial than anticipated, sending shockwaves throughout the base metals markets. As fears of a global recession intensified, the broader base metals, equities, and commodities markets experienced a sharp decline.

The US government imposed a 10% tariff on all trading partner countries effective April 5. Additionally, higher tariffs were set for countries with significant trade deficits with the US, scheduled to take effect from April 9. The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs, along with their broader impact, has contributed to confusion and panic selling among traders.

Uncertainty Fuels Market Turmoil

The nickel market has been particularly volatile in the wake of these developments. The initial drop in nickel prices following the announcement of the tariffs was relatively modest at 1%. However, prices plunged further, losing 3.6% on April 4 and a significant 4.9% on April 5, dropping to $14,550 per ton. This sharp decline can be attributed to China's retaliatory tariffs, which placed a 34% duty on US exports.

Nickel prices have now fallen to their lowest point since October 2020, and the situation remains dire for many producers. Reports suggest that more than three-quarters of refined nickel production is currently operating at a loss, given the prevailing market conditions. Additionally, class 1 nickel production costs in Indonesia, a key supplier, are reported to exceed $15,000 per ton, indicating that current nickel prices are unsustainable for many producers.

Tariff Confusion Exacerbates Nickel Sell-Off

The sell-off in nickel was further aggravated by the confusion surrounding the application of the tariffs. Market participants were uncertain whether LME-grade nickel would be exempt from the new tariffs. Official documents confirmed that a baseline 10% tariff would not apply to HS Code 7508, which pertains to "Other Articles of Nickel." However, the critical HS Code 7502, which covers "unwrought nickel" used for LME-deliverable class 1 nickel, did not receive similar exemption.

Some traders have already begun moving nickel shipments out of the US to avoid the uncertainty, with large European trading groups indicating that they are rerouting cargoes to Rotterdam, UK. Meanwhile, nickel imports into the US from Canada, the country's main supplier, have continued to flow without tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, the future of this arrangement remains unclear, as the upcoming April 9 tariff changes could subject Canada to the same 10% tariff as other countries with trade deficits.

Outlook for Nickel Producers and the Market

The nickel market remains in a precarious situation. With continued confusion around the tariff details and recession concerns gripping major economies, it’s unclear how long the current market conditions will last. As more tariff structures are implemented and market players react to these changes, the global nickel supply chain faces increasing uncertainty.

Nornickel Raises 2024 Production Guidance After Successful Repair Work

Nornickel

Russian multi-metals mining giant, Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), has raised its production forecast for 2024, including its key metals — nickel, copper, platinum, and palladium. This increase comes after Nornickel completed scheduled capital repair work ahead of time in the third quarter, boosting its operational efficiency.

The revised forecast shows Nornickel plans to produce between 196,000-204,000 tons of nickel, 337,000-357,000 tons of copper, 2.624 million to 2.724 million ounces of palladium, and 639,000 to 664,000 ounces of platinum in 2024. These numbers surpass the earlier projections made at the start of the year, which had set the target ranges at 184,000-194,000 tons for nickel, 334,000-354,000 tons for copper, 2.296 million-2.451 million ounces for palladium, and 567,000-605,000 ounces for platinum.

Efficient Furnace Repairs Drive Increased Output

One of the major contributors to this positive revision in production guidance was the early completion of the reconstruction of the flash smelting furnace No. 2 at the Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant. Originally planned for 90 days, the furnace repair was completed in just 60 days, resulting in a 25% increase in smelting capacity. This allowed Nornickel to recover nickel production ahead of schedule and significantly boost mined production volumes.

Thanks to this efficient repair work, Nornickel’s nickel production saw a 3.45% year-on-year rise in the third quarter, reaching 55,805 tons. This represented a 16% increase from the previous quarter, further highlighting the positive impact of the Nadezhda furnace repairs. From January to September, Nornickel’s nickel output increased by 0.3% year-on-year, totaling 146,210 tons.

Growth in Copper and Platinum Group Metals

In addition to nickel, Nornickel's copper production also showed impressive growth, with a 7% increase year-on-year, reaching 107,497 tons in Q3. Output from January to September also rose by 7%, totaling 326,072 tons. This surge was attributed to a lower production base in 2023, as Nornickel upgraded its copper plant operations to improve the quality of copper cathodes.

Nornickel also saw a rise in its production of platinum group metals (PGMs). Palladium output increased by 2%, reaching 676,000 ounces, while platinum rose by 3.12% to 165,000 ounces. However, despite these gains, PGM production saw an 8% decrease in output compared to the second quarter due to the extended production cycle for these metals.

Market Impact and Price Outlook

The news of Nornickel’s production improvements comes amid a widening Class 1 nickel surplus, which has exerted downward pressure on nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Recently, nickel prices have been trading in the $16,000-$18,000 per ton range, with the most recent contract priced at $16,062.50 per ton, its lowest since September 13.

Nornickel’s expanded output and the influx of nickel from new Asian LME brands have contributed to this surplus, impacting the LME nickel benchmark. Despite the surplus, analysts expect the price of nickel to stabilize within the current range in the near term.

Elliott Management Loses Appeal in LME Nickel Trades Dispute

Elliott Management

US hedge fund Elliott Management's legal battle with the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached a conclusion today as the UK Court of Appeal upheld a prior ruling in favor of the LME. The court dismissed Elliott's appeal over the cancellation of billions of dollars' worth of nickel trades, which the LME executed following a market crisis in March 2022.

Court Upholds LME's Authority Amid Market Turmoil

The legal case stems from events on 8 March 2022, when nickel prices spiked to over $100,000 per ton due to a short squeeze, creating chaos in the market. In response, the LME intervened and cancelled $12 billion in trades to stabilize the situation. Elliott Management, which was among those affected by this decision, argued that the LME had acted improperly, favoring specific market participants who were on the verge of substantial losses. The hedge fund accused the LME of effectively providing bailout packages and contended that the exchange lacked the authority to annul these trades.

However, the Court of Appeal affirmed that the LME acted legally, ruling that its decision was made "in the interest of the market as a whole." The judgment stated that the LME's intervention was essential to prevent a potential "death spiral" that could have threatened the stability of the international metals market. Lord Justice Stephen Males, presiding over the case, noted, "To have allowed the 8 March trades to stand would have meant a real risk of what has been graphically described as a 'death spiral'... That left the LME with effectively no choice."

The ruling aligns with the London High Court's previous decision, which dismissed Elliott's initial lawsuit in November 2022. Trading group Jane Street also challenged the LME's actions but faced a similar outcome. Both firms had sought compensation for their losses, but the courts have consistently ruled in favor of the LME.

Reforms and the Path Forward

The LME welcomed the court's decision, which it believes validates the exchange's actions during the crisis. LME chairman John Williamson said, "The LME board is pleased with this positive outcome, which reinforces the Divisional Court's findings that the LME's actions were lawful, rational, and in accordance with its rules." Williamson also emphasized that the exchange is now focused on market modernization efforts, including reforms around price limits and enhancing visibility of over-the-counter trades, to restore trust and confidence.

Elliott Management, while expressing disappointment, has not ruled out further action and is currently evaluating its next steps.

Nickel Market Surplus 2025 to Reach 198,000t on Indonesian Output Growth: INSG

Nickel Factory

Surplus Widens as Global Nickel Supply Outpaces Demand

The nickel market surplus in 2025 is expected to reach 198,000 tonnes, according to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG). This marks an increase from 170,000t in 2023 and 179,000t in 2024, driven largely by continued production expansion in Indonesia across all major nickel product types. Global primary nickel production is forecast at 3.735mn tonnes, while demand lags behind at 3.537mn tonnes.

Indonesia Leads Supply Growth Despite Ore and Royalty Headwinds

Indonesia remains the engine of global nickel supply, despite recent permit issuance delays and the introduction of a new royalty regime based on the Harga Mineral Acuan, a price benchmark tied to LME nickel pricing. The full impact of these changes on mining output is still unclear. Meanwhile, China is also ramping up production of nickel cathode and nickel sulphate, although its nickel pig iron (NPI) output is expected to decline.

Mixed Demand Outlook: Stainless Steel Grows, Battery Demand Slows

The nickel market surplus in 2025 also reflects shifting demand trends. The stainless steel sector is projected to grow further, supporting baseline nickel consumption. However, demand from the EV battery sector is expected to slow due to rising use of non-nickel chemistries and increased adoption of plug-in hybrid vehicles. Still, new ternary cathode projects globally may support medium-term nickel usage recovery.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The projected nickel market surplus in 2025 signals continued pressure on prices. As Indonesia leads global production, market rebalancing may hinge on battery chemistry shifts and Chinese industrial demand.

Indonesia nickel mine suspensions highlight tighter ESG enforcement and supply risk

Indonesia Nickel Mine

Indonesia nickel mine suspensions in southeast Sulawesi underline Jakarta’s tougher stance on reclamation and post-mining responsibilities. The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources (ESDM) has halted operations at 25 nickel mines over missing reclamation and post-mining guarantees. Indonesia nickel mine suspensions now sit within a broader crackdown that also targets coal, gold, iron ore, tin and asphalt producers across several provinces.

Indonesia nickel mine suspensions tied to reclamation failures and permit gaps

Indonesia nickel mine suspensions follow months of warning letters issued between December 2024 and August 2025. Regulators moved only after companies failed to respond with compliant reclamation plans and financial guarantees. The 25 affected nickel operators in southeast Sulawesi join a wider list of 190 suspended general mining licences from central Kalimantan to north Maluku.

However, the sanctions are temporary and may last up to 60 days if companies act quickly. Suspended firms must continue site maintenance, environmental management and monitoring to limit further damage. The ESDM has also sent suspension notices to some nickel mines in north Maluku, signalling that enforcement will not stay confined to one region. As a result, miners now face clear pressure to treat reclamation, guarantees and forestry permits as core licence conditions, not paperwork.

The Indonesia nickel mine suspensions add to recent high-profile actions by a government taskforce. Earlier this month, authorities seized land from Weda Bay Nickel and Tonia Mitra Sejahtera for lacking forestry permits. That decision pushed LME official nickel prices up by about 3pc on 15 September, underscoring how governance interventions can move global benchmarks. Traders now read enforcement news almost as closely as ore shipment updates.

Market impact limited today, but ore supply concerns are building

The immediate market impact from the Indonesia nickel mine suspensions appears modest. Some sanctioned operations were inactive or had unstable output, according to market participants. Three-month LME class 1 nickel prices were largely rangebound at the time of the announcement, with only minor intraday moves.

However, the cumulative effect of licence suspensions, land seizures and stricter forestry compliance is beginning to worry ore buyers. Indonesia remains the world’s dominant supplier of nickel ore and nickel units for stainless steel and battery precursors. Therefore, even small disruptions can tighten margins for NPI smelters and high-nickel battery material producers already facing narrow spreads.

Downstream, stainless steel and battery supply chains now need to factor regulatory risk into feedstock strategies. Some buyers may diversify towards the Philippines or consider higher use of recycled nickel where possible. But substitution options remain limited at scale, keeping Indonesia at the centre of nickel supply planning for the foreseeable future.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s nickel strategy is clearly shifting from volume-at-all-costs to stricter licence discipline and ESG alignment. For miners and smelters, the new reality is that reclamation guarantees and forestry permits sit on the same level as ore grades and cash costs. Policy risk in Indonesia is becoming a structural driver of nickel prices, not just an occasional headline shock.

Vale copper and nickel production outlook strengthens for 2025

Vale

Vale copper and nickel production outlook continues to improve as the Brazilian miner delivers a solid third quarter. The company reported higher copper output and broadly stable nickel production, keeping all base metal assets near the upper end of 2025 guidance. This Vale copper and nickel production outlook underscores the importance of Brazil and Canada within the group’s growth plan.

Copper growth keeps Vale on track with 2025 guidance

Vale copper and nickel production outlook is anchored by another strong performance from its copper division. Third-quarter copper production rose 6pc year-on-year to 90,800t, supported by consistent operations in Brazil and steady polymetallic output in Canada. Payable copper sales climbed 14.8pc to 90,000t, helped by smooth logistics and strong market demand.

In Brazil, Salobo drove copper growth with a 13pc output increase to 53,000t on robust mine-mill performance. Sossego slipped just 2pc to 19,900t after a week of planned maintenance, suggesting limited underlying weakness. In Canada, total copper production dipped 6pc to 18,400t as Vale ended copper-precipitate recovery at Thompson, even while Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay both delivered 11pc higher concentrate volumes.

Higher prices also lifted the Vale copper and nickel production outlook. Vale realised an average copper price of $9,818/t, up $833/t quarter-on-quarter, reflecting firmer LME benchmarks and lower treatment and refining charges. Nine-month copper output reached 274,300t, up 11.4pc year-on-year, keeping the group on pace for its 2025 guidance range of 340,000–370,000t.

Nickel production stable as new capacity comes online

Meanwhile, Vale copper and nickel production outlook on the nickel side remains stable despite heavy maintenance. Third-quarter nickel output slipped just 0.6pc to 46,800t, as refinery downtime offset strong mine performance. Nickel sales rose 5.4pc to 42,900t, although the realised nickel price eased 2.3pc to $15,445/t in line with softer LME levels.

In Canada, Sudbury’s finished nickel production fell 31pc to 8,500t because of work at the Copper Cliff refinery, even as ore mined jumped 45pc to 3.6mn t. Voisey’s Bay output surged 74pc to 10,700t, driven by the ramp-up of the Eastern Deeps and Reid Brook underground mines before a planned shutdown in September. Long Harbour refinery set a new quarterly production record, confirming the asset’s role as a core hub in Vale’s nickel chain.

Brazilian nickel production slipped 5pc to 5,900t, but Onça Puma held steady as it completed early maintenance linked to a second furnace start-up in late September. That new furnace adds 15,000 t/yr of capacity, lifting site capacity to 40,000 t/yr and setting the stage for growth from the December quarter onward. Nine-month nickel output reached 131,000t, up 14.4pc, allowing Vale to maintain its 2025 guidance of 160,000–175,000t and support a resilient Vale copper and nickel production outlook.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale copper and nickel production outlook highlights how disciplined maintenance and targeted brownfield investments can offset operational noise. Additional nickel capacity at Onça Puma and continued strength at Salobo position Vale to benefit from any upside in copper and nickel prices. For downstream users, the guidance stability signals that Vale remains a reliable anchor in an otherwise volatile base metals supply chain.

Nickel Royalty Reforms Reflect Indonesia's Commitment to Resource Preservation

Nickel indonesia

Focus Keyphrase: Indonesia nickel royalty controls

Indonesia has reaffirmed its commitment to nickel royalty controls by increasing royalty rates and introducing new output restrictions. The changes aim to preserve Indonesia's nickel reserves and stabilize global prices.

Indonesia Tightens Control Over Nickel Output and Royalties

In March 2025, Indonesia adopted Regulation 19 to revise nickel royalty rates. The new structure raises ore royalties from 10% to 14–19%. It also introduces royalty rates of 5–7% for ferronickel and NPI and 3.5–5.5% for nickel matte. These changes, effective end of April, reflect a strategy to balance export earnings with long-term resource conservation.

According to Cecep Mochammad Yasin from the energy and mineral resources ministry, the adjustment aims to secure greater economic returns and reduce overexploitation. He stressed the need to protect nickel reserves for future generations, emphasizing the risks of rapid depletion.

Global Coordination and Downstream Development

Indonesia has cut its 2025 nickel production quota to 200mn t, down from 215mn t in 2024. This move follows a global oversupply that pushed LME nickel prices to a low of $14,000/t in early April. Prices later rebounded to $15,000/t amid ongoing trade talks.

Cecep hinted at possible collaboration with other nickel-producing nations to better manage global supply. Officials also warned of declining ore quality, which could challenge future production, particularly in nickel pig iron (NPI).

Meanwhile, Indonesia is accelerating its downstream strategy. Plans include boosting stainless steel, battery raw material, and EV component production. Under the Indonesia Emas 2045 roadmap, the country seeks to invest over $600bn in commodity-linked industries to escape the "middle-income trap."

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia's nickel royalty reforms mark a major shift in global resource governance. By tightening output and encouraging downstream investments, Indonesia is moving from a raw exporter to a value-added production hub. These efforts could significantly influence global nickel pricing and supply chain dynamics.

LME Explores Sustainable Metals Premiums to Boost Low-Carbon Pricing Signals

LME Metals Premiums

Focus Keyphrase: sustainable metals premiums

The London Metal Exchange (LME) is advancing its push toward greener metals by proposing a new system of sustainable metals premiums. These premiums would reflect the verified sustainability credentials of LME-approved brands across metals such as nickel, aluminium, copper, and zinc. LME chief executive Matthew Chamberlain confirmed growing market support for pricing mechanisms that reward low-carbon and responsibly produced metals.

The proposed sustainable metals premiums build on LME’s earlier collaboration with Metalshub, which launched a pricing channel for low-carbon nickel in 2023. That platform, grounded in Nickel Institute methodologies, allows buyers to source low-emission nickel grades. The new proposal expands the scope by using standards from multiple industry bodies, offering a unified framework for sustainable pricing across multiple base metals.

Expanded Criteria and Digital Infrastructure Power the Initiative

The LME confirmed that premiums will include broader sustainability factors beyond just carbon intensity. These could involve energy sourcing, supply chain transparency, and environmental impact metrics, all underpinned by robust third-party assessments. Qualified brands will submit verified data through LMEpassport, the exchange’s digital registry for physical metal information.

Using Metalshub’s spot platform, a pricing administrator will analyze submitted data and publish market-based premiums for qualifying brands. This will enable market participants to differentiate and pay for sustainability attributes, improving transparency in global metal procurement. The LME sees this as a long-term foundation for sustainability-linked pricing benchmarks in the industrial metals market.

LME’s Sustainability Strategy Gains Fresh Momentum

This initiative represents a revival of LME’s sustainability pricing ambitions after it postponed a separate low-carbon aluminium contract in 2020. At the time, the market lacked the infrastructure and participation needed to support a new product. Today, disclosure standards, certification systems, and digital traceability tools like LMEpassport provide the critical backbone for this renewed effort.

According to Chamberlain, increasing “sophistication in sustainability standards” across the metals industry now allows the LME to “credibly support pricing premiums for verified sustainable production.” If successful, these premiums could reshape how metals are valued and sourced globally.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The launch of sustainable metals premiums could transform procurement norms in metals markets. As ESG mandates intensify across industries, transparent price signals for low-carbon production will gain strategic importance. LME's alignment with digital traceability and verified standards gives this initiative the credibility it needs to succeed — provided market adoption follows.