Nornickel Reports Increase in Nickel Output for Q2 2024

Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), the Russian multi-metals mining giant, has reported a significant year-on-year increase in its nickel production for the second quarter of 2024. This rise is primarily attributed to increased ore output from its mining assets and higher production volumes of premium-grade nickel, which is crucial for the electroplating and superalloys sectors.

From April to June, Nornickel's nickel production surged by 8.16% compared to the previous year, reaching a total of 48,304 tonnes. This marks a 15% increase from the first quarter, a growth driven by the company's implementation of an operational efficiency program.

First Half of 2024 Sees Slight Decline

Despite the robust performance in the second quarter, the first half of 2024 saw a slight decline in nickel production. The total output for the first six months fell by 1% year-on-year to 90,236 tonnes. This decrease was largely due to the scheduled repairs of the flash smelting furnace No. 2 at the Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant.

Shifting Market Focus

In response to the declining demand for its traditional cathode products, Nornickel is exploring integration opportunities with the electric vehicle (EV) battery market in Asia. The company is also increasing its focus on high-purity nickel segments. However, nickel products from its Harjavalta refinery face a potential suspension from the London Metal Exchange (LME) in October due to ESG compliance issues, complicating the market landscape.

Copper and PGM Production

Nornickel's copper production also saw a sharp increase in the second quarter. Through a process optimization program at its Norilsk Division copper plant, the company produced 108,812 tonnes of copper, marking a 14.7% rise from the same period in 2023. The first half of 2024 showed a 7% increase, reaching 218,575 tonnes.

Conversely, the production of platinum group metals (PGMs) experienced a downturn. Changes in the PGM ratio of processed raw materials led to a 3.42% drop in palladium output, totaling 735,000 ounces, and a 5.06% decline in platinum output, totaling 178,000 ounces in the second quarter. For the first half of the year, palladium production fell by 0.1% to 1.48 million ounces, while platinum output decreased by 3% to 356,000 ounces.

Future Projections

Nornickel has maintained its annual production guidance for 2024, expecting to produce between 184,000 and 194,000 tonnes of finished nickel. The company’s guidance for copper remains unchanged at 334,000 to 354,000 tonnes, and for platinum and palladium at 567,000 to 605,000 ounces and 2.30 to 2.45 million ounces, respectively.

Nickel Production Halted at Ambatovy Plant Following Pipeline Damage

Sumitomo Nickel

Nickel and cobalt production at Madagascar's Ambatovy plant has been suspended after damage to a slurry pipeline, a crucial component for transporting ore from the mine to the refinery. The suspension, announced by the plant’s majority owner, Japanese trading group Sumitomo, comes as a setback for one of the few remaining active producers of nickel briquettes.

Damage Sparks Concerns Over Ambatovy's Viability

On September 25, Sumitomo revealed that the pipeline damage led to an ore discharge, prompting the decision to halt operations. While there were no injuries reported, an investigation is underway to determine the cause of the incident. The disruption has raised concerns, particularly as Ambatovy is already grappling with high production costs and market pressures.

Ambatovy is one of the few facilities still capable of producing nickel briquettes, a key form of refined nickel used in various industries. With BHP no longer actively producing briquettes and Russia's Norilsk Nickel resuming production at its Harjavalta refinery after a temporary suspension by the London Metal Exchange, the global supply chain has faced volatility. However, trading firms report that the ban on Norilsk's production has been lifted, and output is ramping up, offering some relief to the market.

Despite this, the long-term future of Ambatovy remains uncertain. Trading companies have pointed out that the plant's high production costs significantly exceed current benchmark nickel prices, by as much as $10,000 per tonne, raising questions about its economic viability. "Sumitomo must be considering the mounting losses right now," a trading source remarked. "They have a reputation for being slow decision-makers, likely hesitating to halt production because they could absorb the losses against profits elsewhere."

The financial challenges facing the project have been underscored by a recent debt restructuring plan filed in a London court, as confirmed by Sumitomo Metals Mining representatives. This move suggests that the company is actively seeking solutions to mitigate the financial strain caused by declining nickel prices and operational inefficiencies.

In terms of output, Ambatovy's nickel production for April to June was around 8,000 tonnes, marking a 20% decline from the same period last year. The suspension of production due to the pipeline damage adds to existing concerns over the plant's future, and it remains to be seen how Sumitomo will navigate these mounting challenges.

Johnson Matthey PGM Outlook Points to Industrial Demand as Deficits Persist

Johnson Matthey

Johnson Matthey PGM outlook shows that industrial demand will remain a key support for platinum group metals in 2026, even as automotive, investment and jewellery demand weaken. The recycler expects platinum, ruthenium and iridium markets to remain in deficit.

Johnson Matthey PGM outlook also shows a split market. Palladium and rhodium may move into surplus as higher prices encourage more autocatalyst recycling, while mine supply remains constrained.

Johnson Matthey PGM outlook is strategically important because PGMs sit across automotive catalysts, electronics, chemicals, hydrogen, hard disks, jewellery and industrial processes. Demand is changing, but the metals remain deeply embedded in high-value manufacturing.

The report suggests that PGM markets are not moving in one direction. Industrial demand is resilient, recycling is recovering, mine supply is under pressure, and vehicle technology choices are reshaping long-term consumption.

Recycling Rises as Mine Supply Remains Constrained

Autocatalyst recycling increased in 2025 after a long period of weak collection. Low PGM prices had discouraged recycling, while high vehicle costs led consumers to keep cars longer.

Higher PGM prices have now started to unlock hoarded material across the supply chain. Johnson Matthey expects secondary supply to rise by 8% as vehicle scrappage rates improve.

This recycling growth could support palladium and rhodium availability. Both metals are heavily linked to internal combustion engine catalysts, and higher recovered supply may push those markets into surplus.

Mine supply remains less responsive. Johnson Matthey expects PGM mine supply to fall because of lower South African production and a 10% decline in palladium output from Norilsk Nickel.

Producers remain cautious about greenfield projects and mine expansions despite higher basket prices. The industry needs confidence in future prices, not only current price strength, before committing capital.

This is especially important in South Africa. Platinum dominates the country’s PGM production mix, so sustained strength in platinum prices could eventually support investment. But palladium and rhodium remain exposed to the long-term decline of combustion engine demand.

Data Centres, Hydrogen and Electronics Support Industrial PGMs

Ruthenium remains one of the tightest PGM markets. Its deficit reached nearly 300,000oz in 2025, equal to almost a quarter of annual consumption.

Demand from chemicals, electronics and data centre-related hard disk production has strengthened ruthenium use. Strategic buying, especially in China, has also tightened market conditions.

Chinese export controls on ruthenium and ruthenium-containing materials have reduced supply availability outside China. This makes ruthenium a more sensitive critical mineral for industrial buyers.

Data centre construction for artificial intelligence is increasing demand for hard disks that use platinum and ruthenium. Wider electronics and electrical applications also remain supportive, with PGM use in those sectors rising by 8% in 2025 to 1.25mn oz.

Iridium demand is expected to rise slightly because of green hydrogen projects in Europe. This supports its deficit outlook, although hydrogen demand still depends on project execution and electrolyser deployment.

The US-Iran war adds uncertainty. Petrochemical demand for PGMs could weaken if Middle East oil and gas operations remain disrupted, while higher feedstock and operating costs may pressure industrial users.

The conflict could also affect vehicle demand. Higher fuel prices may push consumers toward electrified vehicles, but the impact on PGMs depends on the technology mix. Battery electric vehicles reduce PGM use, while hybrids still require catalysts.

Johnson Matthey expects automotive PGM demand to fall by 4% in 2026, broadly in line with lower global internal combustion engine production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

PGMs are entering a more selective demand cycle. Palladium and rhodium face pressure from recycling and combustion-engine exposure, while platinum, ruthenium and iridium are gaining support from industrial, data-centre and hydrogen-linked demand.

Global Nickel Surplus Expected to Reach 150,000 Tons by 2024-25, Says Nornickel

Nornickel

Russian metals giant Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) forecasts a significant rise in the global nickel surplus, projecting an increase to 150,000 tons for the years 2024-2025. This revised estimate is a 50% increase from the previously anticipated 100,000 tons. This adjustment is primarily attributed to a notable expansion in high-grade nickel production capacities in China.

Surge in Production and Market Implications

Nornickel notes that nickel inventories on exchange platforms have surged, more than doubling over the year to exceed 100,000 tons in 2024. The combination of these inventories with off-warrant stocks and under-reported reserves is expected to push the class 1 nickel surplus to the 150,000-ton mark. This increase is concentrated in the high-grade sector, spurred by new cathode capacities.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) has approved four new nickel cathode brands from China and Indonesia this year. A fifth brand, JIEN, has also applied for listing. If approved, the production capacity could see an additional 130,000 tons per year starting in 2024.

Economic Impact on Global Producers

Despite the rising surplus, about 40% of global nickel producers are currently facing losses. However, the influx of lower-cost nickel products from Indonesia is reshaping the market dynamics, potentially leading to a price increase as operations in other regions struggle to compete. The market could achieve a more balanced state due to robust demand from the stainless steel industry and possible supply disruptions from Indonesia, amidst uncertainties in regulatory approvals and declining nickel pig iron grades.

LME Harjavalta Nickel Suspension Puts Class 1 Nickel Warrants Under Review

Harjavalta Nickel

LME Harjavalta nickel suspension will stop new warranting of Norilsk Nickel Harjavalta’s primary nickel briquettes and cathodes from 19 June. The London Metal Exchange said no further deliveries of these Finnish-produced products will be accepted for warranting after that date.

The LME Harjavalta nickel suspension does not remove existing warranted metal from the system. Material already on warrant can continue to circulate, but once cancelled after the deadline, it will not be eligible for re-warranting.

The move matters because Harjavalta is a key European source of class 1 nickel. Its cathodes and briquettes are used in stainless steel, battery materials, alloy production, and other high-purity nickel applications.

Administrative Review Appears More Likely Than Supply Disruption

Market participants view the LME Harjavalta nickel suspension as likely procedural rather than a sign of quality or production problems. The three-month lead time suggests the issue may relate to documentation, compliance, or brand listing requirements.

The LME regularly reviews listed brands to ensure producers meet exchange rules. These rules include responsible sourcing standards and documentation obligations, which have become more important across metals markets.

That interpretation limits the immediate market impact. Traders do not expect a major disruption to European nickel availability or premiums, especially because other high-grade nickel brands remain available within the broader class 1 supply pool.

Class 1 Nickel Flexibility Reduces Near-Term Market Risk

Harjavalta material remains important, but the European market has some flexibility through substitution between high-grade forms such as cathodes, briquettes, and rounds. This flexibility should reduce the short-term impact of the warranting suspension.

The spot market may also see limited direct disruption because Harjavalta has reportedly committed most near-term capacity to term contracts. That means spot availability was already constrained before the LME announcement.

Still, the suspension highlights the rising importance of exchange compliance in critical metal supply chains. For nickel buyers, warrant eligibility, responsible sourcing documentation, and brand approval status are becoming part of supply risk management.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The LME Harjavalta nickel suspension is unlikely to trigger an immediate supply shock, but it shows how administrative compliance can affect market liquidity. In class 1 nickel, exchange status now matters almost as much as physical availability.

ARM Nkomati Nickel Mine Restart Moves Closer With Boliden Concentrate Deal

African Rainbow Minerals

ARM Nkomati nickel mine restart prospects have strengthened after African Rainbow Minerals signed a multi-year nickel concentrate sales agreement with Swedish mining and smelting group Boliden. The agreement could support the return of one of South Africa’s important multi-metal nickel assets.

The ARM Nkomati nickel mine has been on care and maintenance since 2020. ARM and Norilsk Nickel placed the operation into suspension after profitability weakened because of lower output.

The ARM Nkomati nickel mine produced nickel, copper, cobalt, chrome and platinum group metals. Its potential restart would therefore add more than nickel units to the market, supporting several metals linked to batteries, stainless steel, alloys and industrial supply chains.

The deal with Boliden remains conditional. It depends on approval to recommence open-pit mining of nickel-bearing ore at Nkomati, responsible sourcing due diligence by Boliden and other regulatory clearances.

Boliden Agreement Gives Nkomati a Processing Route

The sales agreement gives ARM a potential outlet for Nkomati nickel concentrate if mining restarts. Boliden expects the concentrate to be shipped to its Harjavalta smelter in Finland.

Harjavalta produces nickel matte, making it a logical destination for nickel-bearing concentrate. The route would connect South African mine supply with European smelting capacity.

This matters because nickel concentrate needs secure processing access before a restart can become commercially meaningful. A mine can have geological potential, but it still needs offtake, logistics, smelting capacity and customer qualification.

Boliden’s responsible sourcing due diligence is also important. European smelters and customers increasingly require stronger documentation around mine origin, ESG standards and supply-chain integrity.

The agreement therefore does more than provide a buyer. It gives the Nkomati restart a possible downstream pathway into a European refining and smelting system.

For ARM, the deal could improve the commercial case for reopening the mine. For Boliden, it could provide another concentrate source for its nickel operations at a time when secure non-Indonesian nickel supply remains strategically relevant.

South African Nickel Supply Could Regain Strategic Relevance

Nkomati’s ownership structure has changed since the mine entered care and maintenance. Nornickel’s South African subsidiary agreed in November 2023 to transfer its 50% stake to ARM, and the transaction was finalised in July 2025.

Full ARM control gives the South African company more direct strategic flexibility. It can evaluate restart options without the same joint-venture complexity that previously shaped the asset.

The potential restart comes at a time when nickel markets remain divided. Indonesia dominates new supply growth, but European and western buyers are increasingly interested in diversified, traceable and geopolitically balanced feedstock.

Nkomati’s multi-metal profile adds to its relevance. Nickel remains important for stainless steel, batteries and superalloys. Cobalt supports batteries and high-performance alloys. Platinum group metals serve automotive catalysts, hydrogen technologies and industrial applications.

However, restart economics will be the decisive issue. The mine was suspended because lower output weakened profitability. Any recommencement will need a stronger operating plan, stable grades, reliable processing economics and clear market support.

The Boliden agreement is an important step, but not the final decision. The project still needs operational approval, regulatory clearance and successful due diligence before concentrate flows can resume.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ARM-Boliden agreement shows that idled nickel assets can regain value when buyers prioritise diversified and traceable supply. Nkomati’s restart will depend less on headline nickel prices alone and more on whether ARM can rebuild a reliable mine-to-smelter route.

Supply Cuts to Rebalance Nickel Market, Says Nornickel

Russian metals giant Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) has projected a long-term rebalancing of the global nickel market, driven by price-induced closures of nickel operations, particularly in Australia and New Caledonia. These supply cuts, combined with a steady rise in demand, are expected to increase the floor price of nickel from its current range of $16,000-17,000 per ton.

Short-Term Nickel Market Outlook

In the short term, Nornickel holds a neutral stance on nickel prices. While supply cuts from loss-making operations are underway, the growing supply of Chinese Class 1 nickel—most of which is being delivered to the London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses in Asia—has kept prices in check. The nickel market experienced a surplus of 75,000 tons in the first half of 2024, with exchange stocks rising by 40,000 tons during the same period. Nornickel estimates the global surplus will remain at 100,000 tons annually for both 2024 and 2025.

Impact of Falling Prices on Nickel Production

The sharp decline in nickel prices this year, which saw the metal dip below $16,000 per ton, has put significant pressure on producers. Nornickel estimates that over half of the world’s nickel production is currently generating only marginal positive cash flow. Approximately 400,000 tons of global nickel capacity is either idle or at risk of closure. However, the company expects a steady rise in nickel demand, driven by stainless steel production in China, a recovery in Indonesia, and continued growth in the aerospace, oil and gas, and military sectors, which require specialized alloys and superalloys.

Palladium Market Outlook and Financial Challenges

In addition to its outlook on nickel, Nornickel anticipates easing in the palladium market’s destocking by the end of the year. The company expects palladium to remain in deficit, with a shortfall of 400,000 ounces and a 2% year-on-year drop in demand to 9.6 million ounces.

Nornickel’s financial results for the first half of 2024 reflect the challenges faced by the nickel and palladium markets. Revenue dropped by 22% to $5.606 billion, while EBITDA declined by 30% to $2.35 billion. Net profit fell by 23% to $829 million. The group attributed these declines to logistical disruptions, including issues in the Red Sea, and complications arising from Western sanctions on Russia.

Copper Market Outlook

Nornickel remains cautiously optimistic about copper prices in the medium term, although near-term signals are bearish due to persistent inflation in Europe and the U.S., and deflationary concerns in China, the world's top copper consumer.

Nornickel Raises 2024 Production Guidance After Successful Repair Work

Nornickel

Russian multi-metals mining giant, Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), has raised its production forecast for 2024, including its key metals — nickel, copper, platinum, and palladium. This increase comes after Nornickel completed scheduled capital repair work ahead of time in the third quarter, boosting its operational efficiency.

The revised forecast shows Nornickel plans to produce between 196,000-204,000 tons of nickel, 337,000-357,000 tons of copper, 2.624 million to 2.724 million ounces of palladium, and 639,000 to 664,000 ounces of platinum in 2024. These numbers surpass the earlier projections made at the start of the year, which had set the target ranges at 184,000-194,000 tons for nickel, 334,000-354,000 tons for copper, 2.296 million-2.451 million ounces for palladium, and 567,000-605,000 ounces for platinum.

Efficient Furnace Repairs Drive Increased Output

One of the major contributors to this positive revision in production guidance was the early completion of the reconstruction of the flash smelting furnace No. 2 at the Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant. Originally planned for 90 days, the furnace repair was completed in just 60 days, resulting in a 25% increase in smelting capacity. This allowed Nornickel to recover nickel production ahead of schedule and significantly boost mined production volumes.

Thanks to this efficient repair work, Nornickel’s nickel production saw a 3.45% year-on-year rise in the third quarter, reaching 55,805 tons. This represented a 16% increase from the previous quarter, further highlighting the positive impact of the Nadezhda furnace repairs. From January to September, Nornickel’s nickel output increased by 0.3% year-on-year, totaling 146,210 tons.

Growth in Copper and Platinum Group Metals

In addition to nickel, Nornickel's copper production also showed impressive growth, with a 7% increase year-on-year, reaching 107,497 tons in Q3. Output from January to September also rose by 7%, totaling 326,072 tons. This surge was attributed to a lower production base in 2023, as Nornickel upgraded its copper plant operations to improve the quality of copper cathodes.

Nornickel also saw a rise in its production of platinum group metals (PGMs). Palladium output increased by 2%, reaching 676,000 ounces, while platinum rose by 3.12% to 165,000 ounces. However, despite these gains, PGM production saw an 8% decrease in output compared to the second quarter due to the extended production cycle for these metals.

Market Impact and Price Outlook

The news of Nornickel’s production improvements comes amid a widening Class 1 nickel surplus, which has exerted downward pressure on nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Recently, nickel prices have been trading in the $16,000-$18,000 per ton range, with the most recent contract priced at $16,062.50 per ton, its lowest since September 13.

Nornickel’s expanded output and the influx of nickel from new Asian LME brands have contributed to this surplus, impacting the LME nickel benchmark. Despite the surplus, analysts expect the price of nickel to stabilize within the current range in the near term.

China's Share of LME Nickel Stock Rises to Nearly 30%

China's share of nickel warrants in global London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses surged to almost 30% at the end of June, according to the LME's latest country of origin stock report. This marks a significant increase from 10% at the end of the previous quarter and 11% at the start of 2024.

Chinese-origin nickel on-warrant stocks totaled 25,152 tons at the end of June, accounting for 27.9% of total on-warrant LME stocks. Overall, total on-warrant LME stocks reached 90,294 tons by the end of June, representing an increase of 28.3% from the end of March and 56.3% since the beginning of the year. Inventories were last reported at 95,982 tons, the highest level since October 2021.

The LME has approved the warranting of 171,600 tons per year of new Chinese nickel capacity over the past year. Major producers Huayou and CNGR have been sending shipments of Class 1 metal to the exchange's Asian warehouses. Additionally, China has utilized excess Class 2 capacity to convert low-grade nickel into LME-deliverable nickel cathode, positioning itself as a significant player in the European market.

Meanwhile, Russian-origin Class 1 nickel, which has traditionally been the largest source of LME warrants, declined from 30% at the end of 2023 to 26.7% at the end of June amid geopolitical tensions. In April, the LME banned all Russian metals, including nickel produced on or after April 13, from its global warehouse system following new sanctions by the UK and US governments. Nickel produced prior to this date, labeled as Type 1 warrants, remains eligible for delivery and currently makes up all 24,180 tons stored. The LME also suspended the delivery of nickel products from the Finland-based Harjavalta refinery, owned by Russia's Norilsk Nickel, affecting the producer's cathode and briquette brands. Finland-origin nickel made up 1,308 tons of LME on-warrant stocks at the end of June.

Australia was the largest source of LME on-warrant nickel stocks in June, with 26,322 tons. However, China is expected to take the lead in the coming months as its Class 1 output accelerates and Australia's loss-making operations increasingly enter care and maintenance.

South African-origin nickel in LME warehouses totaled 7,734 tons at the end of June, while Canadian material amounted to 2,388 tons.