Vale copper and nickel production outlook strengthens for 2025

Vale

Vale copper and nickel production outlook continues to improve as the Brazilian miner delivers a solid third quarter. The company reported higher copper output and broadly stable nickel production, keeping all base metal assets near the upper end of 2025 guidance. This Vale copper and nickel production outlook underscores the importance of Brazil and Canada within the group’s growth plan.

Copper growth keeps Vale on track with 2025 guidance

Vale copper and nickel production outlook is anchored by another strong performance from its copper division. Third-quarter copper production rose 6pc year-on-year to 90,800t, supported by consistent operations in Brazil and steady polymetallic output in Canada. Payable copper sales climbed 14.8pc to 90,000t, helped by smooth logistics and strong market demand.

In Brazil, Salobo drove copper growth with a 13pc output increase to 53,000t on robust mine-mill performance. Sossego slipped just 2pc to 19,900t after a week of planned maintenance, suggesting limited underlying weakness. In Canada, total copper production dipped 6pc to 18,400t as Vale ended copper-precipitate recovery at Thompson, even while Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay both delivered 11pc higher concentrate volumes.

Higher prices also lifted the Vale copper and nickel production outlook. Vale realised an average copper price of $9,818/t, up $833/t quarter-on-quarter, reflecting firmer LME benchmarks and lower treatment and refining charges. Nine-month copper output reached 274,300t, up 11.4pc year-on-year, keeping the group on pace for its 2025 guidance range of 340,000–370,000t.

Nickel production stable as new capacity comes online

Meanwhile, Vale copper and nickel production outlook on the nickel side remains stable despite heavy maintenance. Third-quarter nickel output slipped just 0.6pc to 46,800t, as refinery downtime offset strong mine performance. Nickel sales rose 5.4pc to 42,900t, although the realised nickel price eased 2.3pc to $15,445/t in line with softer LME levels.

In Canada, Sudbury’s finished nickel production fell 31pc to 8,500t because of work at the Copper Cliff refinery, even as ore mined jumped 45pc to 3.6mn t. Voisey’s Bay output surged 74pc to 10,700t, driven by the ramp-up of the Eastern Deeps and Reid Brook underground mines before a planned shutdown in September. Long Harbour refinery set a new quarterly production record, confirming the asset’s role as a core hub in Vale’s nickel chain.

Brazilian nickel production slipped 5pc to 5,900t, but Onça Puma held steady as it completed early maintenance linked to a second furnace start-up in late September. That new furnace adds 15,000 t/yr of capacity, lifting site capacity to 40,000 t/yr and setting the stage for growth from the December quarter onward. Nine-month nickel output reached 131,000t, up 14.4pc, allowing Vale to maintain its 2025 guidance of 160,000–175,000t and support a resilient Vale copper and nickel production outlook.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale copper and nickel production outlook highlights how disciplined maintenance and targeted brownfield investments can offset operational noise. Additional nickel capacity at Onça Puma and continued strength at Salobo position Vale to benefit from any upside in copper and nickel prices. For downstream users, the guidance stability signals that Vale remains a reliable anchor in an otherwise volatile base metals supply chain.