Global Refined Copper Market Recorded January Surplus as Scrap Output Rose

Copper Coil

Global refined copper market data showed a January surplus as higher mine production and stronger secondary output outweighed moderate demand growth. The market recorded a surplus of around 17,000t, down from about 60,000t in January a year earlier.

The surplus was estimated at around 16,000t after adjusting for changes in Chinese bonded stocks. This indicated that the global refined copper market remained broadly balanced, but rising inventories and limited demand momentum prevented a tighter supply picture.

The global refined copper market was supported by higher mine output in Peru and Mongolia, while stronger scrap-based refined production in China lifted secondary supply. However, disruptions in Chile, Indonesia and parts of the DRC continued to limit a broader recovery in primary supply.

Mine Growth and Secondary Production Offset Supply Disruptions

Global mine production increased by 2.2% on the year to about 1.92mn t in January. Peru’s output rose by 3%, supported by higher production at Antamina, Las Bambas, Antapaccay and Toromocho.

Mongolia delivered a much stronger increase of around 35% after the continued ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground project. This helped offset weaker output in Chile, where mine production fell by around 3%.

Indonesian production remained significantly lower after the 2025 mud rush incident at Grasberg. In the DRC, overall output rose by about 1% as solvent extraction and electrowinning growth offset a sharp decline in concentrate output linked to disruption at Kamoa.

Global refined copper production increased by around 1% to 2.43mn t. Primary production declined by 1.4% to 1.98mn t, while secondary production rose by about 11% to roughly 445,000t, mainly because of higher scrap-based production in China.

Inventories and Modest Demand Growth Limited Market Tightness

Global apparent refined copper usage rose by around 2.5% to about 2.41mn t in January. Demand growth was led by regions outside China, with Asia, the Middle East and north Africa increasing usage by about 4%.

Chinese apparent demand grew by around 1%, but net refined copper imports into China fell by 44%. This mattered because China accounted for 58% of global refined copper usage.

Inventory growth reinforced the perception of adequate supply. Global refined copper stocks reached around 1.93mn t by the end of January, while combined exchange inventories climbed to about 1.2mn t by the end of February, the highest level since March 2003.

The data showed that supply disruptions had not disappeared, but mine ramp-ups and stronger secondary copper production were enough to offset losses. As a result, the global refined copper market stayed balanced, with rising stocks limiting near-term bullish pressure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper’s January surplus showed that scrap and new mine capacity can still soften the impact of regional disruptions. The key question is whether rising inventories reflect temporary timing effects or weaker underlying demand in a market still waiting for stronger electrification-led consumption.

Global Refined Copper Surplus Expands as Smelter Output Outpaces Demand

Copper

Global refined copper surplus widened sharply in 2025 as refined production grew faster than consumption despite persistent mine disruptions. The International Copper Study Group reported a preliminary surplus of 380,000t, up from 69,000t in 2024, signaling a looser refined market balance than many copper buyers expected.

The global refined copper surplus reached 437,000t after adjusting for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks. This reflected strong refined production growth, particularly in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo, even as mine supply growth remained constrained by operational incidents, lower grades, and major disruptions at key assets.

World refined copper production rose by 4.2pc to 28.54mn t in 2025. Primary output increased by 3.9pc, while secondary production from scrap rose by 5.8pc. The expansion shows that smelting, refining, and recycling capacity can continue lifting refined supply even when mine growth remains limited.

China and the DRC Drive Refined Copper Output Growth

China and the DRC were the main drivers of refined copper production growth in 2025. Together, they account for around 57pc of global refined output and recorded combined growth of about 9pc. Excluding these two countries, world refined production fell by around 1.8pc, showing how concentrated refined copper growth has become.

Asia outside China faced weaker production. Output fell by 3.7pc as maintenance shutdowns in Japan reduced the country’s production by 8.2pc and the Pasar refinery in the Philippines closed. Indonesia added new capacity through the Amman and Manyar smelters, but operational issues and disruptions linked to Grasberg limited the impact.

Chile also weighed on refined supply outside the main growth centres. Refined copper production fell by 10pc, with electrolytic output from concentrates down 16pc amid maintenance shutdowns. SX-EW production also declined by 6.8pc, reinforcing the pressure on one of the world’s most important copper-producing countries.

Mine Disruptions Keep Supply Risk Alive Despite Higher Inventories

Mine production increased by only around 1pc to 23.13mn t in 2025. Concentrate output was broadly flat, while SX-EW output rose by 3pc. New projects supported growth, but lower grades and operational disruptions prevented a stronger mine-side recovery.

Major incidents at Kamoa and Grasberg were especially important. Kamoa’s output fell after a seismic incident, while Indonesian mine production dropped by around 43pc because of lower Batu Hijau output, Grasberg maintenance, and the mud rush incident at Grasberg. These events show why copper supply risk remains high even when refined inventories are rising.

Consumption also grew, but not fast enough to absorb new refined supply. World apparent refined copper usage rose by about 3pc to 28.16mn t. Chinese apparent demand increased by around 4pc, but net refined imports fell by 15pc as imports declined and exports jumped. Outside China, growth in parts of Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa offset weakness in the EU and Japan.

The global refined copper surplus became more visible late in the year. December refined production reached 2.43mn t, while usage was 2.26mn t, creating a monthly surplus of 173,000t. Global refined stocks rose to 1.776mn t at year-end, while exchange stocks at the LME, Comex, and SHFE reached 933,641t at the end of January 2026, the highest level since September 2003.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The global refined copper surplus does not remove copper’s long-term supply challenge, but it changes the near-term market psychology. Copper now faces a split reality: refined metal looks looser, while mine disruptions still threaten the concentrate pipeline behind future supply.

Grasberg Copper Mine Recovery Delay Tightens Indonesia Supply Outlook

Grasberg Copper Mine

Grasberg copper mine recovery has been delayed after Freeport-McMoRan reported slower progress at its Indonesian operation following last year’s fatal mud rush accident. The company now expects the Grasberg Block Cave to recover more gradually than previously planned.

The Grasberg copper mine recovery delay is important because Grasberg is one of the world’s largest copper assets. Any slower restart affects global mine supply at a time when copper demand remains tied to grids, data centres, electrification and industrial policy.

The Grasberg copper mine recovery outlook has been cut because wet drawpoints increased inside the mine after the incident and subsequent suspension of mining activity. Freeport said it must upgrade ore loading infrastructure before production can recover more fully.

Freeport now expects Grasberg to reach only 65% of production capacity by the second half of this year. It previously expected the mine to reach 85% in that period.

Grasberg Restart Slows After Underground Infrastructure Issues

The progressive restart of Grasberg Block Cave has been slower than expected. The increase in wet drawpoints has limited mining activity and created a need for infrastructure upgrades.

Freeport now expects Grasberg to reach about 85% of capacity by mid-2027. The company expects the mine to approach full capacity by the end of 2027.

That marks a clear delay from the previous plan. Freeport had earlier expected Grasberg to return to full production capacity by the end of 2027.

The production impact was visible in the first quarter. Freeport’s Indonesian copper output fell by 68% on the year to 95mn lbs because of the Grasberg disruption.

Across Freeport’s global operations, copper output fell by 24% on the year to 662mn lbs. The decline shows how heavily the company’s production profile depends on a stable Grasberg recovery.

US operations partly offset the Indonesian weakness. Copper production from Freeport’s seven mines in the southwest US rose by 3% on the year to 309mn lbs.

Output from the company’s mines in Peru and Chile fell by 4.8% to 258mn lbs. Lower leach placements weighed on production across those assets.

Higher Copper Prices Offset Lower Production

Freeport’s first-quarter financial results were supported by stronger copper prices. Average copper prices rose by 30.1% on the year to $5.78/lb.

Unit production costs also improved. Freeport’s per-unit costs fell by 7.7% to $1.91/lb.

This helped offset lower production and sales volumes. Copper sales volumes fell by 25% from a year earlier, although they were 3% above Freeport’s January estimate.

Freeport’s profit more than doubled to $881mn in the first quarter. Revenue rose by 8.8% to $6.2bn.

The result shows the current copper market tension. Operational supply is weaker, but higher prices are protecting margins for major producers.

Molybdenum performance was mixed. Consolidated molybdenum production fell by 4% to 22mn lbs, while sales volumes rose by 20% to 24mn lbs.

For the copper market, the delayed Grasberg recovery adds another supply-side risk. Indonesia has been expected to support global copper growth, but mine-level disruptions continue to limit output.

The issue also reinforces a broader industry problem. Large underground copper mines can take years to stabilise after major incidents, and infrastructure bottlenecks can delay recovery even when restart work has begun.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Grasberg delay shows why copper supply cannot be judged only by long-term resource size. A single underground disruption at a world-class mine can reshape near-term supply and strengthen copper’s strategic premium.

Global Refined Zinc Market Stays in Deficit as Demand Outpaces Production

Zinc

Global refined zinc market conditions remained tight in 2025 as consumption continued to exceed production, despite stronger mine output and higher refined metal supply. The deficit narrowed to 33,000t from 69,000t in 2024, but the market still failed to return to the 252,000t surplus recorded in 2023.

The global refined zinc market deficit shows that recovering production has not fully restored balance. Mine supply increased across several major producing regions, but refined demand also continued to grow, led by China and Europe. This kept the zinc value chain under pressure even as concentrate availability improved.

The global refined zinc market also reflected a shift in Chinese trade flows. China imported significantly more zinc contained in concentrates, while refined zinc imports dropped sharply. This suggests stronger reliance on domestic smelting and refining capacity rather than external refined metal supply.

Mine Supply Recovery Improves Concentrate Availability

Global zinc mine production rose by 5.4pc to 12.59mn t in 2025, supported by gains in Australia, China, India, Iran, Peru, South Africa, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. China remained the largest producer, with output rising 2.8pc to 4.07mn t.

Peru recorded one of the strongest increases, with zinc mine output rising 18.6pc to 1.51mn t. Australian output also increased by 2.4pc to 1.13mn t. These gains helped offset declines in the US and Kazakhstan, where production fell by 11.2pc and 5.2pc respectively.

Europe delivered a significant mine-side recovery, with output rising 20.1pc to 1.08mn t. Higher production at the Vares operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, new capacity in Russia, and the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine supported the increase. This recovery improved regional concentrate supply after a difficult period for European zinc mining.

Refined Zinc Demand Keeps Market Balance Tight

World refined zinc output rose by 2.1pc to 13.83mn t in 2025, mainly supported by higher production in China and Europe. Chinese refined output increased by 6.1pc to 7mn t, while European production rose by 2.7pc to 2.17mn t.

Demand still slightly exceeded supply. Global refined zinc consumption rose by 1.9pc to 13.86mn t, with Chinese demand increasing by 1.9pc to 7.05mn t. European demand rose by 3.5pc to 1.98mn t, reinforcing the market’s underlying strength despite uneven industrial conditions.

China’s import structure highlights the changing zinc supply chain. Imports of zinc contained in concentrates rose by 29.8pc to 2.58mn t, while refined zinc imports fell by 51.1pc to 210,000t. This points to stronger concentrate pull from Chinese smelters and reduced dependence on imported refined zinc.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The zinc market is no longer in a deep deficit, but it remains structurally tight enough to keep supply discipline important. The key signal is China’s rising concentrate imports, which show that smelting capacity and raw material access are becoming more important than refined metal trade alone.

Refined Zinc Market Surplus Forecast for 2025 Amid Rising Supply

ILZSG

The global refined zinc market surplus is projected to reach 93,000 tonnes in 2025, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). This forecast comes as supply growth outpaces a modest recovery in global demand, particularly in China, the world's largest zinc consumer.

Refined Zinc Demand Rebounds Slightly

Global demand for refined zinc is expected to rise by 1% to 13.64 million tonnes in 2025. China is projected to see a 0.9% increase, following a 1.9% decline in 2024. Other key markets such as Brazil, India, and Turkey are also forecast to grow, while South Korea will likely see a decline. However, ongoing global economic uncertainty, especially surrounding U.S. trade policy, could weigh on zinc consumption.

Zinc Supply Rises on Mine and Smelter Recovery

Meanwhile, global mine production is forecast to increase by 4.3% to 12.43 million tonnes in 2025. Output will rise in Australia, China, Mexico, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Peru. Europe is also expected to rebound, with an 18.3% production increase led by Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia’s Ozernoye mine, and Ireland’s Tara mine. On the refined metal side, global output is projected to climb 1.8% to 13.73 million tonnes. This growth is supported by China and Norway, where Boliden expanded capacity at its Odda smelter by 150,000 tonnes annually.

However, recent closures at Glencore’s Portovesme smelter in Italy and Toho Zinc’s Anakka operation in Japan will partly offset these gains.

Refined Lead Market Also Shifts into Surplus

In addition to zinc, the ILZSG forecasts a surplus in the global lead market. Refined lead supply is expected to exceed demand by 82,000 tonnes in 2025. Demand is projected to rise by 1.5% to 13.19 million tonnes, while output will grow by 1.9% to 13.27 million tonnes, mainly from China, India, Mexico, and the United States.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The anticipated refined zinc market surplus reflects an ongoing shift in global base metal dynamics. Despite moderate demand recovery, rising output from mines and smelters—particularly in Asia and Europe—could place downward pressure on prices unless macroeconomic conditions improve significantly.

ICSG Significantly Raises 2024 Copper Production and Usage Forecast

Copper

the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) significantly revised its forecast for the global refined copper supply surplus in 2024, increasing the surplus projection by 190%, driven by higher-than-expected copper production. The ICSG now expects a surplus of 469,000 tons for this year, a sharp rise from its April estimate of 162,000 tons.

Rising Copper Mine and Refined Production

The ICSG also raised its 2024 global copper mine production forecast to 22.75 million tons, reflecting a growth rate of 1.7%, up from the previously predicted 0.5%. The upward revision is attributed to new and expanded mining projects, though partially offset by the closure of Panama’s Cobre mine, which removed 330,000 tons of copper from this year’s supply.

In 2025, copper mine production is expected to rise by 3.5%, slightly below earlier projections of 3.9%. Growth will be supported by further ramp-up at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi mine, and the start of Russia’s Malmyzhskoye mine.

Global refined copper output is forecasted to grow by 4.2% this year, reaching 27.62 million tons, exceeding the previous forecast of 2.8% growth. The production rebound follows operational issues and maintenance shutdowns in 2023. Additional output from new plants in the DRC and China will further support this growth. However, a lower growth rate of 1.6% is expected in 2025 due to limited concentrate availability.

Demand and Usage Trends

The ICSG also raised its forecast for global refined copper usage to 27.15 million tons this year, implying a 2.2% growth rate. Chinese demand is expected to increase by 2% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025, while global usage excluding China is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025. Infrastructure developments and the shift toward cleaner energy and electric vehicles will continue to drive long-term demand for copper.

For 2025, the ICSG predicts a surplus of 194,000 tons in the global refined copper balance, compared with the previously forecasted surplus of 94,000 tons.

Refined Copper Surplus Widens as Global Output Outpaces Demand

Copper

The refined copper surplus widened sharply in January-November 2025 as supply growth outpaced demand growth. ICSG estimated a refined copper surplus of 206,000t during the period. That compared with a surplus of 105,000t a year earlier. Moreover, the refined copper surplus reached about 273,000t after adjusting for higher Chinese bonded stocks.

Global copper mine production increased, but operational limits remained clear. Mine output rose by 1pc to 21.08mn t in the first 11 months. However, lower ore grades and major disruptions capped stronger gains. Problems at Kamoa and Grasberg highlighted how vulnerable mine supply remains.

Refined output expanded faster than mine supply and widened the market imbalance. Global refined copper production rose by 4.2pc to 26.11mn t. Primary refined output and secondary refined production both increased. As a result, more metal reached the market than end users absorbed.

Global Refined Copper Production Growth Was Uneven

China and the DRC drove most of the refining increase. Together, they represented about 57pc of global refined production. Their combined output rose by around 9pc. Meanwhile, refined production outside those two countries declined by about 1.7pc.

Regional performance showed a divided market. Indian refined copper production rose by 21pc on better operating rates. Indonesia added new smelting capacity, but constraints limited output growth. By contrast, Chilean refined copper production fell by 11pc, while Japan declined by 7.3pc.

Mine supply also varied widely by region. Peru posted stronger growth on higher output from major mines. The DRC also delivered solid expansion. However, Chile declined, and Indonesia dropped sharply because of mine sequencing, maintenance, and the Grasberg mud rush.

Copper Stocks Signal a Looser Market Balance

Apparent refined copper usage still increased, but not enough to absorb rising supply. World apparent usage rose by 4pc to 25.90mn t. Chinese demand increased by around 5.5pc and accounted for about 58pc of global usage. Outside China, demand rose only modestly.

The stock build reinforced the refined copper surplus story. World refined copper stocks reached 1.59mn t at the end of November 2025. That was up from 1.39mn t a year earlier. Therefore, inventories confirmed that supply growth exceeded real consumption.

Exchange data showed the same trend. Stocks across major exchanges totalled 744,115t at the end of December. That marked a 73pc year-on-year increase. London Metal Exchange inventories fell, but Comex and Shanghai stocks rose sharply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The copper market is not facing a supply collapse. Instead, it is showing a growing disconnect between expanding refined output and slower demand absorption. If inventories keep rising, the refined copper surplus could pressure margins across miners, smelters, and traders in 2026.

Develop Global Secures Offtake Agreement and Loan with Trafigura for Woodlawn Mine Restart

Trafigura

Develop Global has finalized a five-year offtake deal and a $63.9 million loan facility with Trafigura, paving the way for the reopening of the Woodlawn copper and zinc mine in early 2025.

A Major Step for Woodlawn Mine

Australian miner Develop Global and commodity trading giant Trafigura have formalized the terms of a pivotal agreement to support the reopening of the long-shuttered Woodlawn copper and zinc mine in New South Wales, Australia. The mine, which has been inactive for nearly three decades, is slated to restart ore extraction in early 2025, with the first concentrates expected by Q2 2025.

The agreement includes:

• A five-year offtake deal, ensuring Trafigura will purchase all minerals processed at Woodlawn.
• A commitment by Develop to produce at least 650,000 tonnes of zinc, copper, and lead concentrates within five years.
• A A$100 million ($63.9 million) loan facility provided by Trafigura, with repayment options via offtake payments or quarterly installments.

Develop Global previously assured investors in August 2024 that the Woodlawn project was "fully-funded through to production," and this deal solidifies its financial foundation.

Strengthening Supply Amid Global Copper Challenges

The deal comes at a critical time as the global copper supply chain faces significant challenges:

• Ecuador’s copper concentrate exports are projected to drop by 20% in 2024 due to production constraints.
• European producer Aurubis, the region's largest copper recycler, has announced reduced output for the 2023–2024 fiscal year.

Woodlawn's reopening will help alleviate some of the pressure on global copper and zinc markets, supplying critical materials for construction, manufacturing, and the renewable energy sector.

A Boost for Regional Mining

The reopening of the Woodlawn Mine marks a milestone for Australia’s mining industry, contributing to the local economy while ensuring a steady supply of base metals. With on-site facilities capable of processing ore into high-quality concentrates, Woodlawn is well-positioned to become a key supplier in the region. The partnership with Trafigura underscores the importance of strategic collaborations in bringing dormant mines back online.

Refined Zinc Deficit Forecast Signals Tight Balance Despite Mine Supply Growth

ILZSG

Refined zinc deficit conditions are expected in 2026 as global demand slightly outpaces refined metal supply, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. The group forecasts a refined zinc deficit of 19,000t this year.

The refined zinc deficit reflects a market where demand growth remains modest but supply growth is also limited. Global refined zinc demand is expected to rise by 1.3% to 14mn t, while refined zinc output is forecast to increase by 1.4% to 13.99mn t.

The refined zinc deficit is not large, but it highlights a fragile balance in a metal tied closely to galvanised steel, infrastructure, automotive production, construction and industrial manufacturing. Even small shifts in mine output, smelter operations or steel demand could move the market back into surplus or deeper deficit.

China, Europe and India Support Zinc Demand

China remains the world’s largest zinc consumer and will continue to anchor demand growth. ILZSG expects Chinese refined zinc demand to rise by 1.8% in 2026, following 1.9% growth in 2025.

European demand is forecast to rise by 1.1% this year, slowing from 3.5% growth last year. US demand growth is also expected to moderate to 1.4%, after expanding by 7% in 2025.

India and South Korea are expected to post higher refined zinc demand. Their growth reflects continued industrial activity, infrastructure needs and manufacturing consumption.

The Middle East outlook is weaker. Iran’s zinc usage is expected to decline sharply because of major infrastructure damage, especially in the steel sector, caused by the war. Demand in Saudi Arabia and the UAE is also expected to fall because of refined metal import disruption and economic instability.

This regional split matters for zinc producers and traders. Growth in Asia may support consumption, but slower demand in Europe and the US, combined with disruption in the Middle East, limits the strength of the global demand recovery.

Mine Supply Rises Slowly as Smelters Face Concentrate and Energy Constraints

Global zinc mine production is forecast to rise by only 0.3% to 12.55mn t in 2026. This follows a stronger 2025, when mine production rose by 4.8%, or 5.9% excluding China.

This year’s mine growth will be supported by higher output in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Portugal and China. New capacity in China, including the Huoshaoyun mine, is expected to contribute to supply.

However, declines in Peru, Sweden and the US will partly offset these gains. Lower output is expected at Antamina, Garpenberg and Red Dog, three important zinc-producing operations.

Refined zinc output is expected to rise by 1.4% to 13.99mn t. Chinese refined production is forecast to grow by 3% as new capacity starts up, following a 6.7% increase last year.

European refined output is also expected to rise, supported by Boliden’s Odda smelter expansion in Norway and the planned restart of Russia’s Verkhny Ufaley smelter. However, higher energy costs and limited concentrate availability continue to pressure several European producers.

Outside Europe and China, refined zinc production is expected to increase in South Korea but decline in Iran and Canada. This shows that refined zinc supply remains exposed to regional energy costs, concentrate access and operational disruption.

The lead market presents a different picture. ILZSG expects refined lead supply to exceed demand by 109,000t in 2026, with output rising by 1.3% to 13.83mn t and demand increasing by 1.1% to 13.72mn t.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The refined zinc deficit forecast points to a market that is balanced on a narrow edge, not structurally short. Zinc’s outlook will depend on whether Chinese smelter growth and new mine capacity can offset weaker regional demand and concentrate constraints.

Mozambique's Moma Titanium Mine Continues Operations Amid Protests

Moma Titanium Mine

Kenmare Resources confirms that operations at its Moma titanium mine in northern Mozambique are ongoing, despite national protests following the October elections.

Mozambique-based mining company Kenmare Resources has confirmed that its Moma Titanium Mine in Nampula province, northern Mozambique, is continuing normal operations despite nationwide protests in response to the country's controversial 9 October general election results.

Operations Unaffected Amid Protests

The protests, which erupted after the announcement of the election results, have primarily been fueled by opposition claims of election fraud. Daniel Chapo of the ruling Frelimo party was declared the winner of the election with 71% of the vote, according to reports from Amnesty International. Venancio Mondlane, the leader of the opposition, who secured 20% of the vote, called for nationwide protests. These protests have been met with a heavy security presence, which has reportedly helped to calm the situation over the past weekend.

Despite the unrest, Kenmare Resources assured stakeholders that operations at the Moma mine have not been disrupted. The company has been taking preventative measures to safeguard its personnel and the integrity of its facilities, although no employees have been evacuated. Senior management remains on-site, and Kenmare continues to monitor the situation closely.

Moma Mine's Role in Global Titanium Supply

The Moma Titanium Mine is one of the largest producers of heavy mineral concentrates in the world, with a focus on producing titanium feedstocks such as ilmenite. The mine plays a crucial role in supplying raw materials for the global titanium industry, which is essential for a wide range of applications, including aerospace, automotive, and electronics manufacturing.

Kenmare’s operations at Moma include the extraction and processing of titanium-rich ores, which are then processed to produce feedstocks that support global titanium production. Despite the political instability in Mozambique, the mine’s operations continue to supply a steady output of these critical minerals.

Political Context and Industry Impact

The protests following the election results have raised concerns about the political stability of the region and the potential impact on mining operations. However, Kenmare Resources has reassured investors and stakeholders that there has been no disruption to its operations at the Moma site. The company’s proactive measures to ensure the safety of its staff and facilities have helped to maintain stability in its mining activities.

The Moma Mine is a key asset for Kenmare, and its continued operation is vital not only for the company but also for the broader titanium industry, which is heavily reliant on stable production and consistent supply.

Conclusion

Despite the protests that have unfolded in Mozambique following the election results, Kenmare Resources has successfully kept its Moma Titanium Mine operational. The company’s vigilance in monitoring the situation and taking necessary precautions underscores its commitment to both safety and maintaining a steady supply of titanium feedstocks. With a heightened security presence, the situation in Mozambique appears to be under control for now, ensuring that Kenmare’s mining operations remain unaffected.

Ganfeng Lithium Begins Production of Spodumene Concentrate at Goulamina Mine in Mali

Ganfeng Lithium

Ganfeng Lithium, one of the world's leading producers of lithium, has officially started producing spodumene concentrate at its Goulamina lithium mine in Mali. This marks a significant step in the development of the mine, which is being constructed in two phases. The first phase, which began in 2022, has a production capacity of 506,000 tonnes per year (t/yr) of spodumene concentrate, with commercial production starting on December 15, 2024. The second phase, when completed, will raise the total capacity to 1 million t/yr.

Goulamina Lithium Mine: A Major Step for Ganfeng's Global Lithium Supply

The Goulamina project is one of Ganfeng's key international investments, located in Mali, a country that is becoming increasingly significant in the global lithium supply chain. The mine has a total resource base of 7.14 million tonnes (mn t) of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), with an average grade of 1.37% lithium oxide (Li2O), a quality that positions it as a key source of lithium in the coming years.

As part of its development, Ganfeng has announced that its wholly owned subsidiary Lithium du Mali SA (LMSA) holds a 100% stake in the project. However, in a move to strengthen its relationship with the host nation, Ganfeng will transfer a 35% stake in LMSA to the Mali government. This will see the government receive 10% of the stake for free, while the remaining 25% will be acquired for approximately $32 million.

Expanding Ganfeng’s Global Lithium Portfolio

Ganfeng Lithium is investing heavily in lithium extraction from both spodumene ore and brine sources across the globe. In addition to the Goulamina mine, Ganfeng has major operations in Australia, Argentina, Mexico, Ireland, and China. The company is also ramping up its Cauchari-Olaroz project in Argentina, which boasts an annual 40,000 t/yr capacity for lithium carbonate production.

The move to secure assets in Africa is part of a broader trend among Chinese lithium producers, who are increasingly looking to diversify their supply chains. Companies such as Huayou, Sinomine, Chengxin, and Yahua have been sending shipments from their Zimbabwe-based mines to lithium refineries in China, highlighting the growing importance of African countries as key players in the global lithium market.

Strategic Implications for Global Lithium Markets

Ganfeng’s investment in Mali and its expanding operations across Africa signal an ongoing shift in the global lithium mining landscape, with Chinese firms increasingly focusing on securing access to critical resources outside traditional markets like Australia and South America. As demand for lithium continues to surge, driven by the rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy storage solutions, these strategic moves will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of the lithium supply chain.

Global Refined Copper Market Records Surplus in January-August

Copper

The global refined copper market saw a surplus of 535,000 tons (t) in the first eight months of 2024, up sharply from a surplus of 75,000t during the same period last year, according to preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). This increase in surplus reflects a rise in production, particularly in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Refined Copper Supply Outpaces Demand

From January to August, refined copper production increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 18.3 million tons (mn t). Primary refined copper output, which includes electrolytic and electrowinning processes, rose by 5.2%, while secondary refined production from scrap increased by 4.6%.

The expansion of refining capacity played a critical role, with China and the DRC leading the charge. China expanded its capacity by 6.5%, while the DRC achieved a significant 16% increase. Together, these two regions accounted for 54% of global refined copper production. Other notable contributors were Japan (+3.8%) and the US (+8%). Conversely, production in the EU declined by 2%, driven by the shutdown of Boliden's Ronnskar refinery in Sweden in June 2023.

Mine Production Recovers

Global copper mine output rose by 2% year-on-year to 14.9mn t, driven by recovery from production constraints in 2023 and new mining projects. Key highlights include:

Democratic Republic of the Congo: Mine output grew by 11%, largely due to expansions at the Kamoa-Kakula mine, operated by Canadian firm Ivanhoe Mines.

Indonesia: Production surged by 22%, recovering from operational disruptions in 2023.

Chile: Mine output increased by 3% with improved operations.

However, production fell in Peru (-0.7%) and the US (-5%) due to local challenges.

Copper Demand Grows Moderately

Global refined copper consumption rose by 2.5% to 17.8mn t during January-August. China's apparent demand led the growth with a 2.7% increase, while demand in the EU, Japan, and the US remained weak. Other Asian countries and regions like the Middle East and North Africa helped offset this decline, contributing to a 2% rise in consumption outside of China.

August Performance: A Month in Surplus

In August alone, the global refined copper market produced 2.32mn t and consumed 2.27mn t, resulting in a monthly surplus of 54,000t.

Outlook

With production outpacing demand, the refined copper market may continue to face surplus conditions in the near term. The global shift toward increased production capacity and moderate demand growth, led by China and the DRC, will shape the market dynamics going forward.

Panama copper mine reopening tests Cobre Panama’s future

Panama Copper Mine

Panama copper mine reopening has moved to the top of President José Raúl Mulino’s agenda. He links Cobre Panama directly to national growth and fiscal stability. The mine once delivered roughly 5% of Panama’s GDP and about 1.5% of global copper supply. Therefore Panama copper mine reopening has become a strategic priority for the new administration.

Cobre Panama is a $10bn open pit complex operated by Canada’s First Quantum Minerals. It lies in Donoso and previously generated around 40% of First Quantum’s annual revenue. However, the supreme court closed the project after ruling its long term mining contract unconstitutional in 2023.

The government has now tasked industry minister Julio Molto with reopening the mine through direct negotiations. First Quantum previously sought $20bn in compensation but says it still prefers a negotiated solution. As a result, Panama copper mine reopening depends on rebuilding trust while avoiding renewed legal confrontation or international arbitration.

Economic stakes of Panama copper mine reopening

Panama copper mine reopening carries major implications for growth, employment, and the country’s external balances. The mine anchors a wider ecosystem of contractors, logistics providers, and service companies around the project. Therefore a restart could quickly support fiscal revenues, foreign exchange inflows, and investor confidence in Panama’s policy direction.

For the global copper market, Cobre Panama’s return would reintroduce significant tonnage at a sensitive time. Energy transition projects are pushing copper demand higher while new large scale mines remain limited. Consequently, any delay or failure in Panama copper mine reopening will influence prices, contract negotiations, and supply planning.

Political and environmental risks around Cobre Panama

Despite the economic upside, political and environmental risks around Cobre Panama remain substantial. Powerful unions, environmental groups, and opposition parties previously mobilised nationwide protests against the project. They criticised the contract terms, questioned revenue sharing, and highlighted potential damage to forests and coastal ecosystems.

Meanwhile, the court ruling and public anger triggered a broader debate about mining’s role in Panama’s development model. The government now promises to negotiate without intermediaries, which may speed decisions but deepen mistrust among critics. Therefore any roadmap for Cobre Panama must combine stronger environmental safeguards, transparency, and genuine community consultation.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Panama’s handling of Cobre Panama will shape perceptions of sovereign risk across smaller resource dependent economies. Investors and copper buyers should track not only production timelines but also contract design, oversight quality, and social acceptance. If Panama aligns economic needs with tighter governance, the mine could reemerge as a model for transition era projects.

Global refined zinc market surplus set to widen through 2026

Zinc

The global refined zinc market surplus is forecast to widen sharply as supply growth outpaces a modest demand recovery. According to ILZSG projections, refined zinc will move from an 85,000t surplus in 2025 to a 271,000t surplus in 2026. As a result, the global refined zinc market surplus will increasingly shape treatment charges, pricing power and smelter utilisation, especially outside China. The refined zinc balance already showed a 47,000t surplus in the first half of this year, confirming the shift from earlier tightness.

However, demand for refined zinc is still expected to grow, even under pressure from weak construction and patchy industrial activity. ILZSG forecasts refined zinc use to rise by 1.1pc to 13.71mn t in 2025, led by a 1.3pc increase in China on stronger vehicle output. Meanwhile, European demand should finally stabilise, rising by 0.7pc after three years of contraction, with France, Germany, Norway and Poland offsetting declines in Italy and Russia. Emerging markets including India, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and Vietnam will also support consumption, even as Brazil and South Korea lag.

Supply expansion drives global refined zinc market surplus

The global refined zinc market surplus is driven primarily by a clear upturn in mine and smelter supply. ILZSG expects zinc mine production to rise by 4.6pc to 12.51mn t in 2025, with 5pc growth outside China. Therefore, higher output from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ireland, Portugal, Russia and Sweden joins gains in China, South Africa, Peru and the DRC. Further mine growth in 2026 will be underpinned by the reopening of Aljustrel in Portugal and higher production in Australia, Brazil, the DRC and China.

At the smelter level, refined zinc output is forecast to rise by 2.7pc to 13.8mn t in 2025, then by 2.4pc to 14.13mn t in 2026. The biggest driver is China, where new capacity is being commissioned and is expected to lift output by 6.2pc in 2025. Meanwhile, European production receives a structural boost from Boliden’s 150,000 t/yr expansion at the Odda smelter in Norway. These increases will outweigh declines in Italy, Japan, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and South Korea, locking in the global refined zinc market surplus unless demand surprises to the upside.

Refined lead market also tips into surplus

The surplus story extends beyond zinc, with refined lead also moving into a looser balance. ILZSG projects refined lead supply to exceed demand by 91,000t in 2025 and 102,000t in 2026. Demand for refined lead is still expected to rise by 1.8pc this year to 13.25mn t, and by 0.9pc to 13.37mn t in 2026, driven mainly by Europe, Vietnam and the US. However, supply will grow faster, with refined lead output seen rising by 2pc to 13.34mn t in 2025 and by 1pc to 13.47mn t in 2026, supported particularly by Brazil and India. As a result, both zinc and lead markets are heading into a multi-year period of oversupply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The global refined zinc market surplus projected for 2025–26 signals a prolonged phase of buyer’s market dynamics in galvanising and alloy segments. Smelters with high energy costs or weaker integration into mine supply will face the greatest margin pressure as treatment terms and premiums adjust. For lead, surpluses underline the importance of battery recycling economics and regional policy support, especially as EV and energy storage value chains reshape traditional lead-acid demand.

Zambia and US Launch Copper Mine Joint Venture

Zambia Copper Mine

The Zambia copper mine joint venture between US-based Metalex and Zambia’s Terra Metals marks a significant step in bilateral mining cooperation. The two companies launched Lunda Resources, a partnership aimed at developing the Mwinilunga Copper Mine, which is set to become a key contributor to global copper and cobalt supply chains.

Zambia Copper Mine Joint Venture Targets 100,000t Output

The new Zambia copper mine joint venture will process up to 2mn tonnes of ore annually, producing 100,000 tonnes of copper concentrates, copper cement, and cobalt precipitate. Lunda Resources has already invested ZMW 270mn ($1.2bn) in early-stage development. The full project build-out is expected to reach ZMW 2.7bn, including advanced ore processing systems.

Strengthening Zambia-US Mining Cooperation

This partnership reflects a strategic alignment between Zambia and the US at a time when global copper and cobalt demand is surging. Copper remains central to the global energy transition, while cobalt is vital for battery manufacturing. The collaboration between Metalex and Terra Metals sets a new benchmark for cross-border mining partnerships, combining Zambia’s resource wealth with US investment and technology.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Zambia copper mine joint venture highlights how resource-rich African nations are leveraging foreign partnerships to expand mining capacity. By aligning with US firms, Zambia strengthens its position in global supply chains while diversifying investment sources beyond China. This project underscores copper’s critical role in electrification and positions Zambia as a key growth hub in Africa’s mining sector.

Kamoa-Kakula Copper Output Falls as Ivanhoe Shifts Toward Smelter Recovery

Ivanhoe

Kamoa-Kakula copper output fell sharply in the first quarter as Ivanhoe Mines continued to recover from seismic damage at the Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The complex produced 61,906t of copper in concentrate, down 54% from 133,120t a year earlier.

The decline reflects the continuing effect of the May 2025 seismic shocks that forced Ivanhoe to shut, drain and rebuild the Kakula mine. The asset remains in a staged recovery process and has not yet returned to full production.

Kamoa-Kakula copper output now sits below earlier expectations, forcing Ivanhoe to lower its 2026 guidance to 290,000-330,000t from 380,000-420,000t. The company also cut its 2027 target to 380,000-420,000t from 500,000-540,000t, although it still expects output to exceed 500,000 t/yr from 2028.

The weaker concentrate output is important for the global copper market because Kamoa-Kakula is one of the most important growth assets in the DRC copper belt. Any delay in its recovery reduces near-term copper supply from a region that has become central to global mine growth.

Smelter Output and Acid Production Cushion the Disruption

Ivanhoe’s first-quarter results also showed a shift in the site’s operating profile. While copper concentrate output fell sharply, the Kamoa-Kakula smelter produced 63,671t of anode during the quarter.

The company also produced 7,746t of copper in blister from the LCS smelter in Kolwezi. This shows that Ivanhoe is building more downstream processing capability even as underground mine recovery continues.

The smelter gives Kamoa-Kakula a strategic advantage in the DRC. Most producers in the African Copperbelt rely on sulphuric acid for leaching operations, while Kamoa-Kakula produces sulphuric acid as a byproduct.

The on-site copper smelter produced 117,871t of high-strength sulphuric acid in the first quarter. This has become more important because the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised concern over sulphur supply into African hydrometallurgical operations.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid availability can directly affect DRC copper production costs. Producers that rely on imported sulphur or purchased acid may face higher costs or operating constraints if Middle East disruptions persist.

Ivanhoe’s position is different. The company does not need sulphuric acid for its own main copper production route and can instead produce acid for regional demand. This could turn a regional input shortage into a commercial advantage.

The main external risk for Ivanhoe is diesel availability. Diesel remains important for on-site energy generation and logistics in the DRC. Ivanhoe has made advanced diesel purchases and implemented contingency measures to sustain operations.

The company also has a lower diesel exposure than many regional operators because it has access to 250MW of hydroelectric capacity. A further 60MW of solar power with battery storage is expected to come online soon, strengthening the site’s energy resilience.

Kipushi Zinc Growth Adds Diversification Despite Grid Instability

Ivanhoe’s Kipushi zinc-copper-lead-germanium mine delivered a stronger first-quarter result. The DRC mine produced a quarterly record of 65,044t of zinc in concentrate, up 52.2% from a year earlier and 5.9% from the previous quarter.

The result gives Ivanhoe an important diversification benefit while Kamoa-Kakula works through its recovery. Zinc concentrate output from Kipushi adds exposure to galvanizing, infrastructure, alloying and specialty metal supply chains.

Kipushi also carries strategic by-product relevance because the mine includes copper, lead and germanium. Germanium has become more important for semiconductors, fibre optics, infrared systems and defence applications.

However, Kipushi still faces infrastructure constraints. Ivanhoe said concentrator availability was affected by electrical grid instability, even as zinc output increased.

This highlights a wider challenge across the DRC mining sector. The country has high-grade resources and major growth potential, but reliable power, transport, reagents and logistics remain critical constraints.

For Kamoa-Kakula, the longer-term recovery depends on mine rebuilding, underground transport, smelter integration, acid market dynamics and energy reliability. The 2028 target of more than 500,000 t/yr remains achievable only if these systems stabilise together.

For the copper market, Ivanhoe’s first-quarter performance sends a mixed signal. Concentrate output remains sharply lower, but smelting and acid production are becoming more strategically valuable as regional supply chains face sulphur and fuel risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe’s first-quarter results show that Kamoa-Kakula is no longer just a copper volume story. Its smelter, sulphuric acid output and power mix could become strategic advantages in a DRC market exposed to reagent, fuel and logistics shocks.

Luanshya Copper Mine Restart Supports Zambia’s Copper Growth Ambition

Luanshya Copper Mine

Luanshya copper mine restart plans are moving forward in Zambia, with the upper mine expected to resume production in August after two decades of care and maintenance. The mine is mainly controlled by China Nonferrous Mining Corporation.

The Luanshya copper mine restart follows a dewatering process after severe flooding damaged infrastructure at the site. Zambia’s mines ministry said the upper mine is set to restart first, while the lower mine is expected to begin production in 2029.

The Luanshya copper mine restart could become a meaningful addition to Zambia’s long-term copper supply base. Once fully operational by 2030, the mine is expected to produce around 100,000 t/yr of copper.

The project matters because Zambia is trying to raise national copper output sharply. The country produced more than 890,000t of copper in 2025, up 8% from a year earlier, and is targeting 1mn t this year.

Restart Adds Near-Term Momentum to Zambia’s Copper Pipeline

Luanshya’s return is important because it brings an idled asset back into Zambia’s operating copper base. Restarting an existing mine can be faster than building a new greenfield project, although dewatering, infrastructure repair and operational stabilisation still create execution risk.

The upper mine restart in August gives Zambia a near-term production milestone. The lower mine start-up in 2029 would then support a second phase of output growth.

If the mine reaches full output of 100,000 t/yr by 2030, it would make a material contribution to Zambia’s production targets. It would also strengthen the country’s position as one of Africa’s key copper suppliers.

Zambia wants to lift copper output to 3mn t by 2032. That target will require restarts, expansions, new projects, processing investment and more reliable infrastructure across the mining sector.

CNMC Role Highlights China’s African Copper Position

CNMC’s control of Luanshya reinforces China’s continuing role in African copper supply. Chinese companies have become major investors in copper assets across Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

This has strategic importance for global copper flows. As copper demand rises from grids, electrification, data centres and industrial policy, ownership and offtake structures in Africa are becoming more politically and commercially significant.

Luanshya’s restart also comes as western governments seek greater access to African copper supply. Zambia is therefore becoming a more important battleground for investment, financing, logistics and long-term offtake.

For the copper market, the project adds supply visibility but not immediate full-scale relief. The larger impact depends on whether the mine can ramp steadily, manage water and infrastructure risks, and reach its 2030 production target.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Luanshya’s restart shows why brownfield copper assets are regaining strategic value. In a market short of fast supply growth, Zambia’s ability to revive idled mines could matter as much as discovering new deposits.

Zinc Prices Set to Drop in 2025 Due to Increased Supply and Weak Demand

McArthur River Mining

Zinc prices are expected to decline in 2025, as global supply improves and demand remains subdued in key consumption sectors, particularly in the construction and automotive industries. This shift comes after a strong price performance in 2024, driven by tight supply conditions and mining disruptions.

Price Performance in 2024

Zinc has been one of the standout performers on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in 2024, with prices hovering above $3,000 per ton in December, compared to $2,537 per ton in January. This 6% increase from the previous year can be largely attributed to supply disruptions at key mines. Notable interruptions included Glencore's McArthur River mine in Australia, which halted operations in March due to extreme rainfall, and MMG’s Dugald River mine in China, which was placed on care and maintenance during Q3.

The zinc market faced a 164,000-ton deficit in 2024, primarily due to reduced production from mines like Boliden's Tara mine in Ireland and Almina's Aljustrel mine in Portugal. However, supply conditions are expected to shift in 2025, leading to a bearish outlook for zinc prices.

Improved Supply Forecast for 2025

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasts a surplus of 148,000 tons in 2025 as new mines and production ramps up globally. One major development contributing to this surplus is the reopening of Ivanhoe Mines' Kipushi mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to produce 278,000 tons per year over its first five years. Kipushi will become Africa's largest zinc mine and the fourth-largest globally.

In addition, European production is expected to rise, with increased output from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Portugal, and the reopening of Tara operations in Ireland. Russia's zinc production is also set to grow, supported by the newly opened Ozerneoye plant. Other key regions, including Australia, Canada, China, Japan, the Netherlands, and Norway, are expected to see increased concentrate supply, especially in the first quarter of 2025. According to trading firm Macquarie, global mined supply is projected to grow by 5.8% in 2025, with around 570,000 tons of zinc in new project approvals.

Weak Demand Pressures Zinc Prices

While supply is set to increase, demand growth for zinc is expected to remain weak, especially in the construction and automotive sectors, which together account for a significant portion of global zinc consumption. Carbon steel demand has fallen in 2024, driven by weakness in the construction sector, particularly in China. European manufacturing also remains sluggish, with the automobile sector facing significant challenges. Volkswagen, for instance, has announced plans to close several plants and lay off thousands of employees in response to falling sales and weak demand for cars.

Macquarie predicts a modest 1.7% growth in global refined zinc demand in 2025, a revision down from the previously anticipated 2.5% growth rate. The uncertainty surrounding potential new U.S. tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump's administration adds another layer of risk, particularly regarding the strength of the U.S. dollar and global trade dynamics.

Zinc Price Outlook for 2025

Given the expected supply surplus and the persistent demand lag, analysts are generally bearish on zinc prices for 2025. The World Bank and Fitch Ratings expect zinc prices to average $2,600 per ton in 2025, with further declines to $2,500 per ton by 2026. Macquarie is similarly forecasting a drop to $2,650 per ton in 2025, followed by a decline to $2,450 per ton in 2026. These price drops reflect the anticipated market surplus and continued weak demand.

Conclusion

As zinc supply increases and demand struggles to pick up, the market is expected to experience price declines in 2025. The key factors driving this change include the reopening of major mines, such as Kipushi, and continued challenges in major zinc-consuming sectors like construction and automotive manufacturing. While supply-side factors are positive, weak demand and potential trade uncertainties are expected to put downward pressure on zinc prices in the years to come.

CMOC Molybdenum Output Fell in 2025 Despite Stronger China Demand

CMOC

CMOC molybdenum output declined in 2025 as lower ore grades at key Chinese mines reduced production. The diversified metals producer, also known as Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum, produced 13,906t of molybdenum metal equivalent, down 9.7% from a year earlier.

The decline was linked to lower original ore content at the Sandaozhuang Molybdenum Tungsten Mine and the Shangfanggou Molybdenum Mine. CMOC’s molybdenum sales also fell by 6.1% on the year to 14,058t.

CMOC molybdenum output weakened even as broader molybdenum demand improved. This contrast shows that mine-grade pressure can limit producer performance despite stronger consumption from steel and energy-related sectors.

Chinese Molybdenum Consumption Rose on Steel Demand

China’s molybdenum market strengthened in 2025 as demand for molybdenum-containing steel increased. CMOC said Chinese molybdenum consumption rose by 9.3% on the year to 152,000t.

Steelmakers purchased around 153,000t of molybdenum alloy in 2025, up 6.3% from a year earlier. Demand was supported by continued use of molybdenum-bearing steels in wind power and other industrial applications requiring strength, corrosion resistance and high-temperature performance.

China produced 133,000t of molybdenum in 2025, accounting for 43.3% of global output. Production increased slightly by 0.8% from the previous year, reinforcing China’s central role in the global molybdenum supply chain.

Global Market Remained Balanced as Demand Outpaced Supply Growth

Global molybdenum output rose by 3.2% to 307,000t in 2025, while global demand increased by 4.5% to 303,000t. The data point to a broadly balanced market, with demand growing faster than supply but not enough to create a major deficit.

CMOC expects molybdenum demand to remain firm in 2026, supported by continued development of the molybdenum-containing steel market. However, the company lowered its 2026 production target to 11,500–14,500t of molybdenum metal equivalent, compared with its 2025 target of 12,000–15,000t.

The lower guidance suggests CMOC molybdenum output may remain constrained by mine quality and operational factors. For alloy buyers, this keeps attention on Chinese mine performance, steel-sector consumption and the availability of molybdenum units for higher-value applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CMOC’s result shows that molybdenum demand strength does not automatically translate into higher producer output. As wind power and specialty steel continue to support consumption, ore grade and mine productivity will become more important pricing and supply variables.

Hudbay Constancia copper mine restart restores Peru production outlook

Hudbay Minerals

Hudbay Constancia copper mine restart restores production in Peru’s southern corridor after weeks of protest disruption. The Hudbay Constancia copper mine restart brings the mill back to full throughput and stabilises local operations. As a result, ore processing has resumed and the workforce is returning in stages, reducing immediate supply risk from this key asset. Hudbay now reiterates that 2025 copper output should remain within its guidance range of 117,000–149,000t.

Operational recovery at Constancia

Hudbay Constancia copper mine restart follows a temporary shutdown triggered by local protests and road blockades. The disruptions affected inbound supplies and outbound concentrate logistics, highlighting the vulnerability of Peru’s mining corridor to social unrest. However, full mill utilisation means Hudbay can work through short-term stockpiles and normalise concentrate deliveries. This recovery also reassures contractors and local communities that operations, employment and service contracts will continue.

Meanwhile, the restart reduces near-term risk premiums that traders might have attached to Peruvian copper concentrates. Concentrate buyers depend on predictable shipments from large, established mines like Constancia. Therefore, the quick Hudbay Constancia copper mine restart signals that management and authorities have restored minimum transport security, even if underlying social tensions persist.

Guidance intact and market implications

Hudbay’s ability to maintain its 2025 guidance after the Constancia restart sends an important signal to copper markets. Producers that reaffirm guidance after disruptions help anchor expectations around global mine supply. At the same time, recurring protests in Peru remind investors that social licence and community engagement remain critical for long-life copper assets. If future unrest escalates, similar interruptions could again tighten concentrate availability and raise treatment charge volatility.

For now, the restart suggests Hudbay has enough operational flexibility to absorb a short stoppage without revising its annual production plan. However, downstream smelters and physical traders will likely keep contingency plans in place for alternative concentrates. Market participants will monitor whether logistics remain stable through the next contract cycle and whether community negotiations deliver more durable solutions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Constancia’s swift restart highlights both the resilience and fragility of Peru’s copper supply chain. Large mines can technically recover quickly, but repeated social disruptions erode confidence and increase the cost of capital for new projects. For copper buyers, the key takeaway is to diversify concentrate sources while recognising that Peru will remain a cornerstone of global supply for the foreseeable future.