Global Refined Zinc Market Stays in Deficit as Demand Outpaces Production

Zinc

Global refined zinc market conditions remained tight in 2025 as consumption continued to exceed production, despite stronger mine output and higher refined metal supply. The deficit narrowed to 33,000t from 69,000t in 2024, but the market still failed to return to the 252,000t surplus recorded in 2023.

The global refined zinc market deficit shows that recovering production has not fully restored balance. Mine supply increased across several major producing regions, but refined demand also continued to grow, led by China and Europe. This kept the zinc value chain under pressure even as concentrate availability improved.

The global refined zinc market also reflected a shift in Chinese trade flows. China imported significantly more zinc contained in concentrates, while refined zinc imports dropped sharply. This suggests stronger reliance on domestic smelting and refining capacity rather than external refined metal supply.

Mine Supply Recovery Improves Concentrate Availability

Global zinc mine production rose by 5.4pc to 12.59mn t in 2025, supported by gains in Australia, China, India, Iran, Peru, South Africa, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. China remained the largest producer, with output rising 2.8pc to 4.07mn t.

Peru recorded one of the strongest increases, with zinc mine output rising 18.6pc to 1.51mn t. Australian output also increased by 2.4pc to 1.13mn t. These gains helped offset declines in the US and Kazakhstan, where production fell by 11.2pc and 5.2pc respectively.

Europe delivered a significant mine-side recovery, with output rising 20.1pc to 1.08mn t. Higher production at the Vares operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, new capacity in Russia, and the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine supported the increase. This recovery improved regional concentrate supply after a difficult period for European zinc mining.

Refined Zinc Demand Keeps Market Balance Tight

World refined zinc output rose by 2.1pc to 13.83mn t in 2025, mainly supported by higher production in China and Europe. Chinese refined output increased by 6.1pc to 7mn t, while European production rose by 2.7pc to 2.17mn t.

Demand still slightly exceeded supply. Global refined zinc consumption rose by 1.9pc to 13.86mn t, with Chinese demand increasing by 1.9pc to 7.05mn t. European demand rose by 3.5pc to 1.98mn t, reinforcing the market’s underlying strength despite uneven industrial conditions.

China’s import structure highlights the changing zinc supply chain. Imports of zinc contained in concentrates rose by 29.8pc to 2.58mn t, while refined zinc imports fell by 51.1pc to 210,000t. This points to stronger concentrate pull from Chinese smelters and reduced dependence on imported refined zinc.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The zinc market is no longer in a deep deficit, but it remains structurally tight enough to keep supply discipline important. The key signal is China’s rising concentrate imports, which show that smelting capacity and raw material access are becoming more important than refined metal trade alone.