Refined Copper Surplus Widens as Global Output Outpaces Demand

Copper

The refined copper surplus widened sharply in January-November 2025 as supply growth outpaced demand growth. ICSG estimated a refined copper surplus of 206,000t during the period. That compared with a surplus of 105,000t a year earlier. Moreover, the refined copper surplus reached about 273,000t after adjusting for higher Chinese bonded stocks.

Global copper mine production increased, but operational limits remained clear. Mine output rose by 1pc to 21.08mn t in the first 11 months. However, lower ore grades and major disruptions capped stronger gains. Problems at Kamoa and Grasberg highlighted how vulnerable mine supply remains.

Refined output expanded faster than mine supply and widened the market imbalance. Global refined copper production rose by 4.2pc to 26.11mn t. Primary refined output and secondary refined production both increased. As a result, more metal reached the market than end users absorbed.

Global Refined Copper Production Growth Was Uneven

China and the DRC drove most of the refining increase. Together, they represented about 57pc of global refined production. Their combined output rose by around 9pc. Meanwhile, refined production outside those two countries declined by about 1.7pc.

Regional performance showed a divided market. Indian refined copper production rose by 21pc on better operating rates. Indonesia added new smelting capacity, but constraints limited output growth. By contrast, Chilean refined copper production fell by 11pc, while Japan declined by 7.3pc.

Mine supply also varied widely by region. Peru posted stronger growth on higher output from major mines. The DRC also delivered solid expansion. However, Chile declined, and Indonesia dropped sharply because of mine sequencing, maintenance, and the Grasberg mud rush.

Copper Stocks Signal a Looser Market Balance

Apparent refined copper usage still increased, but not enough to absorb rising supply. World apparent usage rose by 4pc to 25.90mn t. Chinese demand increased by around 5.5pc and accounted for about 58pc of global usage. Outside China, demand rose only modestly.

The stock build reinforced the refined copper surplus story. World refined copper stocks reached 1.59mn t at the end of November 2025. That was up from 1.39mn t a year earlier. Therefore, inventories confirmed that supply growth exceeded real consumption.

Exchange data showed the same trend. Stocks across major exchanges totalled 744,115t at the end of December. That marked a 73pc year-on-year increase. London Metal Exchange inventories fell, but Comex and Shanghai stocks rose sharply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The copper market is not facing a supply collapse. Instead, it is showing a growing disconnect between expanding refined output and slower demand absorption. If inventories keep rising, the refined copper surplus could pressure margins across miners, smelters, and traders in 2026.