Ivanhoe Mines Achieves Record Copper Output at Kamoa-Kakula in October

Ivanhoe Mines

Ivanhoe Mines, a Canadian mining company, announced a significant milestone in copper production from its Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In October 2024, the Kamoa-Kakula mine reached a new record by producing 41,800 tons of copper concentrates, surpassing the previous high of 40,347 tons set in August. This marks an important achievement in the company’s ongoing expansion efforts and positions Kamoa-Kakula as one of the top global copper producers.

Strong Performance from Kamoa-Kakula’s Phase 1, 2, and 3 Concentrators

The combined output from Kamoa-Kakula's Phase 1, 2, and 3 concentrators hit a new high in October, with an impressive peak daily output of 1,720 tons of copper in concentrate on October 12. This daily output is equivalent to an annualized production rate of approximately 580,000 tons of copper. The steady performance of these concentrators underscores the operational success of the project, which continues to deliver strong results despite global economic uncertainties.

The Phase 3 concentrator, which commenced commercial production in August 2024, played a pivotal role in this achievement. With the addition of Phase 3, the mine’s copper production capacity increased from 450,000 tons per year (t/yr) to 600,000 t/yr. In October alone, the Phase 3 concentrator processed 448,478 tons of ore, contributing an additional 10,533 tons of copper-in-concentrate, representing a 42% increase in output compared to September.

Expanding Capacity for Future Growth

By October 31, Kamoa-Kakula’s combined copper production for the year totaled approximately 345,042 tons, further solidifying the project's standing as one of the most productive copper mines globally. Ivanhoe Mines is also making significant strides toward expanding the operation. The company is nearing the completion of the engineering stage for Kamoa-Kakula’s Phase 4 expansion, which promises to further boost copper production capacity and establish the mine as a leading supplier in the global copper market.

Conclusion

Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula copper complex continues to achieve impressive milestones, driving growth in both production and capacity. With the successful ramp-up of Phase 3 and the ongoing preparations for Phase 4, the DRC-based mine is positioned for further success in the global copper industry. This achievement not only highlights the company’s operational excellence but also underscores the strategic importance of Kamoa-Kakula in meeting the growing global demand for copper, especially in industries like electric vehicles, renewable energy, and infrastructure development.

Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula Phase Three Reaches Commercial Production, Elevating Copper Output

Ivanhoe Mines, a Canada-based mining firm, announced on Monday that the phase three concentrator at its Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has officially reached commercial production. This milestone boosts the mine's copper production capacity to a staggering 600,000 tons per year, solidifying its position as the world’s third-largest copper mining complex.

Since initiating production, the phase three concentrator has already produced over 11,000 tons of copper concentrate, with the first sale occurring in July. In that same month, Kamoa-Kakula recorded its highest monthly output to date, producing 35,941 tons of copper.

The newly operational concentrator is expected to contribute approximately 150,000 tons per year to the mine's total copper output. This addition, combined with the production from phases one and two, raises the mine's capacity from 450,000 to 600,000 tons annually.

Remarkably, the phase three concentrator was completed ahead of schedule at the end of May and is engineered to process 5 million tons of copper ore per year. Looking forward, Ivanhoe Mines’ founder, Robert Friedland, revealed plans for a phase four expansion at Kamoa-Kakula, aiming to further scale production.

In 2023, the Kamoa-Kakula mine produced 393,551 tons of copper concentrate, marking an 18 percent increase from the previous year.

Kamoa-Kakula Sets New Copper Production Record in DRC

Ivanhoe Mines

Record-Breaking Production at Kamoa-Kakula

Ivanhoe Mines, a Canadian mining company, has achieved a new record in copper production at its Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In November, the complex's output reached an unprecedented 45,019 tons of copper in concentrate, surpassing the previous record of 41,800 tons set in October. This milestone underscores the increasing productivity and operational efficiency at one of the world’s largest copper mining sites.

Sustained Growth in Copper Output

Since the commencement of the Phase 3 concentrator in August, which marked its entry into commercial production, the Kamoa-Kakula complex has seen a significant uptick in production. The recent increase by 10% in November alone has propelled the annual production rate towards an estimated 550,000 tons per year. Ivanhoe Mines founder, Robert Friedland, highlighted this growth, indicating the company's trajectory towards achieving a production capacity of 600,000 tons annually.

The total copper output from January to November 2023 at the Kamoa-Kakula complex was reported at 390,061 tons, demonstrating robust year-round performance and the strategic effectiveness of the phased concentrator expansions.

Ivanhoe Copper and Zinc Production Soars Amid Smelter Commissioning

Ivanhoe copper

Strong First Quarter Driven by Kamoa-Kakula and Kipushi Output

Ivanhoe Mines reported a 79% year-on-year rise in adjusted EBITDA to $226 million in Q1 2025. The surge was fueled by a major jump in Ivanhoe copper and zinc production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Kamoa-Kakula mine delivered 133,120 tonnes of copper, a 55% increase from last year. Meanwhile, Kipushi mine produced 42,736 tonnes of zinc, up by 32% on the quarter.

Smelter Commissioning Set to Unlock More Copper Value

Construction of the 500,000 t/yr smelter at Kamoa-Kakula is now complete, with commissioning underway. First copper anode production is expected in July. Despite selling 109,963 tonnes of copper in Q1 — up 29% — some inventory was held back in preparation for the smelter launch. Ivanhoe’s 2025 copper guidance remains 520,000–580,000 tonnes, with a long-term target of 600,000 tonnes/year.

Zinc Output Accelerates as Kipushi Ramps Up

Kipushi zinc sales rose 77% to 30,108 tonnes, reflecting ramp-up momentum since the November reopening. EBITDA at Kipushi jumped 160% to $10.5 million. Ivanhoe maintained 2025 zinc output guidance at 180,000–240,000 tonnes, with plans to exceed 250,000 tonnes in 2026. Ivanhoe is also expanding its exploration footprint through the Western Forelands copper belt, targeting discoveries near Kamoa-Kakula.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe’s investment in processing infrastructure like the Kamoa-Kakula smelter signals a strategic shift toward higher-margin, vertically integrated production. The scale and pace of Ivanhoe copper and zinc production position it as a dominant player in Africa’s critical minerals landscape.

Ivanhoe Mines Lowers Production Forecasts at DRC’s Kamoa-Kakula and Kipushi Mines

Ivanhoe Mines

Ivanhoe Mines, a Canadian mining company, announced a downward revision of its full-year production forecasts for its copper and zinc operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The updated guidance reflects ongoing challenges, particularly with the power supply, impacting output at the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex and the Kipushi zinc mine.

Power Supply Issues Impact Copper and Zinc Production

For the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex, the company has adjusted its 2024 copper-in-concentrate production guidance to a range of 425,000-450,000 metric tons, down from the earlier estimate of 440,000-490,000 metric tons. The revision comes amid instability in the local electrical grid and the ongoing commissioning of the site’s phase 3 concentrator, which recently began commercial operations. Despite these challenges, the mine achieved a record production of 116,313 metric tons in the third quarter, marking a 15% increase from the previous quarter. The new phase 3 concentrator added 22,099 metric tons to the quarterly output, pushing the facility's overall production capacity to 600,000 metric tons per year, up from 450,000 metric tons.

Kamoa-Kakula’s operations have been steadily ramping up, with the complex reporting year-to-date production of 303,328 metric tons. Construction on a new 500,000 metric ton per year smelter is proceeding as planned, with completion expected by the end of the year. However, grid-related power issues remain a concern that could affect future performance.

In contrast, the Kipushi zinc mine’s production forecast was significantly revised, with full-year guidance lowered to 50,000-70,000 metric tons of zinc in concentrate, down from the initial target of 100,000-140,000 metric tons. The mine produced 17,817 metric tons in the third quarter, but ramp-up efforts have been hampered by issues such as high iron content in the ore, limited processing throughput, and ongoing power transmission challenges. Ivanhoe had anticipated reaching an average annual production rate of 250,000 metric tons, but the current pace has been slower than expected.

The power supply difficulties, alongside technical issues in the concentrator at Kipushi, underscore broader infrastructure challenges in the DRC, potentially impacting the reliability of future production targets.

Ivanhoe Mines Confirms Strong Start to 2025 at DRC Copper and Zinc Operations

Ivanhoe Mines

Kamoa-Kakula and Kipushi mines show robust early output as ramp-up continues toward full-year targets.

Ivanhoe Mines, the Canadian mining firm, reported that both its Kamoa-Kakula copper mine and Kipushi zinc mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are firmly on track to meet their 2025 production targets. Strong output in January and February suggests continued momentum across both flagship assets.

At Kamoa-Kakula, copper production reached 45,477 tonnes in January and 40,849 tonnes in February. Notably, during the final week of February alone, output hit 11,122 tonnes, equating to an annualized rate of over 578,000 tonnes—the upper end of Ivanhoe’s 2025 guidance of 520,000–580,000 tonnes.

Project 95 Expansion and Zinc Ramp-Up Progress

Ivanhoe confirmed that Project 95, which will add 30,000 tonnes/year of copper capacity, remains on schedule for completion in Q1 2026. This expansion will further boost Kamoa-Kakula’s long-term output as global copper demand continues to rise.

Meanwhile, the Kipushi zinc mine, which restarted operations in November 2024, posted record production of 16,063 tonnes in January and 11,903 tonnes in February, following a December high of 14,900 tonnes. Kipushi reached a nameplate milling rate of 2,000 tonnes per day in late February and is quickly approaching its 2025 target range of 180,000–240,000 tonnes of zinc in concentrate.

Ivanhoe projects Kipushi will reach 250,000 tonnes in 2026 as ramp-up activities continue and processing efficiency improves.

These results affirm Ivanhoe’s position as a top-tier copper and zinc producer in one of the world’s richest mineral belts, with infrastructure and expansion plans already underway.

Ivanhoe Expects Kakula Copper Output to Drop in 2025

Ivanhoe Mines

Seismic Impact on Copper Production

Ivanhoe Mines has revised its 2025 copper production guidance at the Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The company now expects output between 370,000 and 420,000 metric tonnes, down sharply from its earlier forecast of 520,000 to 580,000 tonnes. This adjustment follows seismic activity in May that forced a temporary suspension of underground operations.

Kakula, part of the joint-owned Kamoa-Kakula complex, had delivered a record 437,061 tonnes of copper in concentrate in 2024. However, recent disruptions and subsequent water inflow management have cut near-term production expectations. Ivanhoe has stabilized water levels with added pumping capacity and restarted operations on the mine’s western side on 7 June, with plans to restart the eastern side later this year.

Outlook and Smelter Launch

Ivanhoe anticipates dewatering activities on the eastern mine zone will continue through the fourth quarter, while processing plants operate at reduced capacity. The project’s phase 1 and 2 concentrators are currently running at about 50% utilization, processing ore from surface stockpiles. Output should gradually recover as underground mining resumes across the complex.

Meanwhile, the company expects to commission its copper smelter in September, with first anode production scheduled for October. This development marks a significant milestone for Ivanhoe, as vertical integration could provide greater value capture and stability amid production disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe’s revised copper outlook highlights the operational risks inherent in mining in geologically complex regions. While short-term production losses are significant, the launch of its smelter may partially offset the impact by adding value downstream. Investors will closely watch whether recovery efforts align with timelines as global copper demand remains robust.

Ivanhoe restarts Kipushi Zn, Cu mine in DRC

Canadian mining firm Ivanhoe Mines has completed construction and produced first concentrate from its Kipushi mine concentrator in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), it said on Tuesday, 31 years after the Kipushi mine was placed on care and maintenance.

The mine, which produces zinc, copper and lead among other metals, was initially expected to return to production in the third quarter of this year.

The first ore was delivered into the Kipushi concentrator on 31 May, with the first concentrate produced on 14 June. This was "delivered substantially ahead of schedule", Ivanhoe founder Robert Friedland said. A ramp-up is now anticipated in the third quarter. Moreover, a debottlenecking programme is under way to increase the Kipushi concentrator's processing capacity by 20pc to 960,000 t/yr.

Kipushi's production guidance for this year is set at 100,000-140,000t of zinc in concentrate. Production is expected to average 278,000 t/yr of zinc in concentrate over the first five years, making Kipushi the largest zinc mine in Africa and fourth-largest globally, the company said.

Ivanhoe has recently signed offtake agreements with China's Citic Metal and global trading firm Trafigura, with further agreements expected in the coming months.

Ivanhoe's other projects in southern Africa include the expansion of the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex and exploration of the Western Foreland, both also in DRC, and the construction of the tier-one Platreef platinum group metals project in South Africa. The Kamoa-Kakula project is also months ahead of schedule, after it processed its first ore on 26 May.

ICSG Raises Global Refined Copper Surplus Forecast for 2025 Amid Supply Expansion

ICSG

Increased Output from DRC, China, and Indonesia Drives Market Shift

The global refined copper surplus forecast for 2025 has been significantly raised by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The group now projects a 289,000-tonne surplus, up 49% from the 194,000 tonnes forecasted in September 2024. This revision reflects a surge in refined copper supply from major producers, including China, Indonesia, India, and the DRC, outpacing modest demand growth.

Copper Mine and Refining Capacity Expansion Continues

Global copper mine production is forecast to rise 2.3% in 2025 to 23.5 million tonnes, driven by expansions at Kamoa-Kakula (DRC), Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia), and Malmyzhskoye (Russia). In parallel, refined copper output is expected to grow 2.9% to 28.3 million tonnes, with major contributions from new Chinese and Indonesian capacity. The trend will persist into 2026, with mine output reaching 24.1 million tonnes and refined output hitting 28.7 million tonnes.

Demand Outlook Weakens Amid Trade Uncertainty

Despite continued demand from the energy transition and digitalization, the ICSG has revised 2025 refined copper demand growth downward to 2.4%, totaling 28 million tonnes. The 2026 forecast is softer still, at 1.8%. Usage in China is expected to grow by 2% in 2025, but only 0.8% in 2026. Demand from the EU, Japan, and the U.S. remains weak, although India’s semiconductor expansion offers upside potential.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The updated global refined copper surplus forecast signals a recalibration of market dynamics in favor of supply. While long-term electrification trends remain bullish, short-term overcapacity may weigh on copper prices and reshape global trade flows.

Global Refined Copper Market Records Surplus in 2024 Due to Increased Output in China and DRC

Copper Market

Surplus Marks Significant Shift from 2023 Deficit

The global refined copper market posted a surplus in 2024, breaking from the deficit seen in 2023. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), refined copper production reached 27.63 million tonnes, while consumption totaled 27.33 million tonnes. This 301,000-tonne surplus contrasts with the previous year’s 52,000-tonne deficit. The main drivers behind this surplus were higher outputs in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Strong Output Growth Across Key Mining Regions

Global copper mine production grew by nearly 2.4% year-on-year, reaching 22.91 million tonnes in 2024. This increase followed recoveries from supply constraints in 2023 in countries such as Chile and Indonesia. Significant expansions in DRC, Botswana, Mongolia, and Serbia further boosted output. Notably, DRC's copper production surged by 14% due to ramp-ups at the Kinsanfu mine and expansions at Tenke and Kamoa-Kakula. Chile’s copper output also increased by 5%, thanks to higher production at Escondida and Collahuasi, along with the ramp-up of Quebrada Blanca. Indonesia experienced a 14% rebound after overcoming operational challenges at Grasberg and Batu Hijau mines in 2023.

Refined Copper Output and Demand Trends

Refined copper output globally rose by 4.2% in 2024, led by expanded capacity in China and DRC. These two nations now contribute about 54% of world refined copper production. Primary refined production, including electrolytic and electrowinning from ores, amounted to 23.05 million tonnes, while secondary production from scrap reached 4.58 million tonnes. Output rose in Japan and the US but fell in Chile and the EU. World refined copper use also climbed by 2.9%, with Chinese apparent demand up by 3.5%. Nevertheless, weaker demand in the EU, Japan, and the US tempered global growth. In December, refined copper consumption exceeded production, causing a 22,000-tonne monthly deficit.

Zijin Mining Boosts Copper Production in 2024 with Strong Serbian and African Output

Zijin Mining

Zijin expands copper output with Serbian and DRC project gains

Zijin Mining increased its copper production in 2024, driven by higher output from its Serbian mines and African operations. The company produced 1.068mn tonnes of mined copper last year, up 6.1% from 2023. Notably, combined production from Serbia's Cukaru Peki and Bor mines rose to 292,900t, up from 238,900t a year earlier. Zijin aims to boost these Serbian mines to 450,000t/year, although it has not revealed a timeline.

Meanwhile, its flagship Kamoa-Kakula project in the Democratic Republic of Congo began phase three production in August. This will raise copper capacity to 600,000t/year by 2025, up from 437,000t in 2024.

New mines and future capacity targets underline long-term growth

In China, Zijin plans to launch phase two of the Julong copper mine in late 2025, expanding output to 300,000–350,000t/year. Phase three will raise Julong’s capacity to 600,000t/year, though construction dates remain undisclosed. Additionally, the 76,000t/year Zhunuo copper mine in Tibet will start operating by late 2026.

Refined copper production rose 3.2% to 474,570t in 2024, while zinc and lead volumes saw mixed performance. Zijin produced 451,474t of mined zinc and lead, down 3.3%, but refined zinc output rose 11% to 371,057t.

The company also expanded molybdenum and tungsten production, though cobalt output dropped 63% year-on-year. Looking ahead to 2025, Zijin targets 1.15mn t of copper, 440,000t of zinc and lead, and 40,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zijin’s 2024 performance confirms its status as a global copper powerhouse. Strategic mine expansions in Serbia, Congo, and China signal long-term ambitions to dominate global refined and mined copper supply. Its diversification into lithium and molybdenum positions the firm to ride the clean energy and battery metals boom well into 2030.

ICSG Significantly Raises 2024 Copper Production and Usage Forecast

Copper

the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) significantly revised its forecast for the global refined copper supply surplus in 2024, increasing the surplus projection by 190%, driven by higher-than-expected copper production. The ICSG now expects a surplus of 469,000 tons for this year, a sharp rise from its April estimate of 162,000 tons.

Rising Copper Mine and Refined Production

The ICSG also raised its 2024 global copper mine production forecast to 22.75 million tons, reflecting a growth rate of 1.7%, up from the previously predicted 0.5%. The upward revision is attributed to new and expanded mining projects, though partially offset by the closure of Panama’s Cobre mine, which removed 330,000 tons of copper from this year’s supply.

In 2025, copper mine production is expected to rise by 3.5%, slightly below earlier projections of 3.9%. Growth will be supported by further ramp-up at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi mine, and the start of Russia’s Malmyzhskoye mine.

Global refined copper output is forecasted to grow by 4.2% this year, reaching 27.62 million tons, exceeding the previous forecast of 2.8% growth. The production rebound follows operational issues and maintenance shutdowns in 2023. Additional output from new plants in the DRC and China will further support this growth. However, a lower growth rate of 1.6% is expected in 2025 due to limited concentrate availability.

Demand and Usage Trends

The ICSG also raised its forecast for global refined copper usage to 27.15 million tons this year, implying a 2.2% growth rate. Chinese demand is expected to increase by 2% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025, while global usage excluding China is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025. Infrastructure developments and the shift toward cleaner energy and electric vehicles will continue to drive long-term demand for copper.

For 2025, the ICSG predicts a surplus of 194,000 tons in the global refined copper balance, compared with the previously forecasted surplus of 94,000 tons.

Global Refined Copper Market Surplus in the First Half of 2024

International Copper Study Group (ICSG)

Increased Output and Lagging Demand

The global refined copper market experienced a significant surplus in the first half of 2024, as supply continued to outpace demand. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the surplus reached 488,000 tons, a notable increase from the 115,000 tons recorded in the same period last year.

Global refined copper production rose by 6.2% to 13.9 million tons in the first half of the year. This increase was largely driven by expanded capacity in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which together account for about 53% of the world's refined copper production. Output in China grew by 7%, while the DRC's production increased by 12%, bolstered by the Kamoa-Kakula mine. In contrast, global refined copper consumption grew by only 3.4%, with weaker demand in the EU, Japan, and the US offset by gains in other Asian markets.

Production and Consumption Trends

Mined copper production also saw a rise, up by 3.1% to 11.1 million tons, driven by higher output in Chile, Indonesia, and the US. Chile, the leading producer, saw a 2.4% increase but remained below its five-year average. Indonesia experienced a dramatic 33% rise, recovering from previous constraints. Meanwhile, the Cobre Panama mine's production remained halted since November 2023.

In June, the global refined copper market produced 2.3 million tons and consumed 2.2 million tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 95,000 tons.

Chinese Cobalt Prices Expected to Decline Further in 2025 Amid Rising Supply and Weak Demand

Chinese Cobalt Manufacturing

Oversupply and Weak Demand to Push Cobalt Prices Lower

The Chinese cobalt market is set to experience further price declines in 2025, as increasing nickel and copper production, from which cobalt is a by-product, leads to an oversupply that buyers are struggling to absorb.

Currently, Chinese-origin cobalt metal traded in Europe has already seen significant pressure due to a lack of floor pricing on raw materials, a trend expected to persist into the new year. Market insiders suggest that cobalt prices could drop below $9/lb, as fully integrated Chinese producers view cobalt as a credit to their primary metal production, particularly nickel and copper.

For these refiners, cobalt is a secondary concern. As one trading firm explained, some Chinese producers operate with production costs as low as $4,000 per ton while selling at $9,000 per ton. Even if they incur a $50 million loss on cobalt, they may still profit significantly from copper production, which can generate up to $700 million in gains.

Chinese Refiners Likely to Continue Production at a Loss

Unlike non-Chinese refiners, which may curtail supply if cobalt prices fall below $9/lb, some Chinese integrated mining firms and refiners could continue refining hydroxide into metal at a loss-making $7-8/lb.

While there is speculation that some Chinese metal producers may attempt to negotiate floor prices in their contracts, it remains uncertain whether these efforts will succeed. Market participants are closely watching how these negotiations unfold, as they could provide some level of price support if successful.

Global Nickel and Copper Growth to Sustain Cobalt Oversupply

The primary factor driving cobalt’s oversupply is the continued expansion of nickel and copper production, as cobalt is a by-product of both metals.

• Nickel production is set to rise again in 2025 with the launch of new Class 1 nickel refineries in China and Indonesia. This will likely keep London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month official nickel prices within the $15,000-17,000 per ton range, significantly lower than the $30,000 per ton peak in early 2023.

• Copper production is also projected to increase due to expansions at mines such as Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Although cobalt sales represent only a minor portion of copper mining revenues, producers still aim to extract value from it as a credit.

Weakened Demand from EV and Chemicals Sectors Further Pressures Prices

While cobalt demand in China has surged by 40%, this has not been enough to counteract weakening demand in other regions, particularly in Europe:

• The electric vehicle (EV) sector in Europe has slowed down, leading to reduced demand for cathode active materials like cobalt.

• The European chemicals industry, particularly in Germany, has struggled due to rising energy costs and broader economic challenges.

Even if prices do increase, China has ample spare refining capacity and could use third-party tolling arrangements to process hydroxide into metal, further maintaining downward price pressure.

Peak Oversupply May Be Near, But Price Recovery Remains Uncertain

Some market participants believe that cobalt hydroxide oversupply may have already peaked. The shift towards lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which do not use cobalt, has significantly impacted the demand for nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery chemistries, leading to lower demand for cobalt sulfate and cobalt hydroxide.

However, despite this potential supply peak, weak demand across key industrial sectors suggests that cobalt prices are unlikely to see a strong recovery in the near term.

Conclusion

In 2025, Chinese cobalt prices are expected to remain under pressure due to rising nickel and copper production, ongoing oversupply, and weak demand from the European EV and chemicals sectors. While some believe that the cobalt market may be nearing peak oversupply, prices are unlikely to experience significant upward momentum unless demand rebounds sharply or supply reductions occur.

Global Refined Copper Market Records Surplus in January-August

Copper

The global refined copper market saw a surplus of 535,000 tons (t) in the first eight months of 2024, up sharply from a surplus of 75,000t during the same period last year, according to preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). This increase in surplus reflects a rise in production, particularly in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Refined Copper Supply Outpaces Demand

From January to August, refined copper production increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 18.3 million tons (mn t). Primary refined copper output, which includes electrolytic and electrowinning processes, rose by 5.2%, while secondary refined production from scrap increased by 4.6%.

The expansion of refining capacity played a critical role, with China and the DRC leading the charge. China expanded its capacity by 6.5%, while the DRC achieved a significant 16% increase. Together, these two regions accounted for 54% of global refined copper production. Other notable contributors were Japan (+3.8%) and the US (+8%). Conversely, production in the EU declined by 2%, driven by the shutdown of Boliden's Ronnskar refinery in Sweden in June 2023.

Mine Production Recovers

Global copper mine output rose by 2% year-on-year to 14.9mn t, driven by recovery from production constraints in 2023 and new mining projects. Key highlights include:

Democratic Republic of the Congo: Mine output grew by 11%, largely due to expansions at the Kamoa-Kakula mine, operated by Canadian firm Ivanhoe Mines.

Indonesia: Production surged by 22%, recovering from operational disruptions in 2023.

Chile: Mine output increased by 3% with improved operations.

However, production fell in Peru (-0.7%) and the US (-5%) due to local challenges.

Copper Demand Grows Moderately

Global refined copper consumption rose by 2.5% to 17.8mn t during January-August. China's apparent demand led the growth with a 2.7% increase, while demand in the EU, Japan, and the US remained weak. Other Asian countries and regions like the Middle East and North Africa helped offset this decline, contributing to a 2% rise in consumption outside of China.

August Performance: A Month in Surplus

In August alone, the global refined copper market produced 2.32mn t and consumed 2.27mn t, resulting in a monthly surplus of 54,000t.

Outlook

With production outpacing demand, the refined copper market may continue to face surplus conditions in the near term. The global shift toward increased production capacity and moderate demand growth, led by China and the DRC, will shape the market dynamics going forward.

Smelter Ramp-Up Delayed Amid Seismic Setback

Ivanhoe Mines

Ivanhoe Mines has withdrawn its 2025 copper production guidance due to seismic disruptions at the Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The underground operations at Kakula were initially suspended on May 18, resumed briefly, and were suspended again on May 25 after further seismic activity. This operational volatility prompted Ivanhoe to review its previously announced copper production range of 520,000–580,000 tonnes for the year.

Water Inflow Escalates, Surface Operations Continue

The seismic events also increased water inflow at the site, necessitating new dewatering infrastructure to sustain future mining activities. As a result, the company also suspended its ramp-up schedule for the newly built direct-to-blister smelter, which was slated to produce its first copper anode in July. While underground mining is halted, surface concentrators remain active by processing stockpiled ore, and the nearby Kamoa mine remains unaffected.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Seismic risk now emerges as a critical operational challenge for copper mining in Central Africa. Ivanhoe’s decision highlights how geological instability can derail even well-planned projects. Investors and analysts will be watching closely as this event affects both copper market expectations and smelting capacity timelines.