Global Refined Zinc Market Set for Surplus in 2025: ILZSG

Zinc

Zinc and Lead Supply to Outpace Demand Amid Economic Challenges

The global refined zinc market will shift into surplus in 2025, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). The organization projects a surplus of 93,000t next year, marking a notable shift in market dynamics.

Global demand for refined zinc is forecast to grow by 1% year-on-year, reaching 13.64 million tonnes in 2025. China, the largest consumer, will see a modest 0.9% increase in usage after a 1.9% decline last year. Demand is also expected to rise in Brazil, India, and Turkey, although South Korea's consumption will fall. Nevertheless, global economic uncertainty, particularly related to US trade policies, could weigh on overall demand growth.

Zinc and Lead Supply to Expand Significantly

On the supply side, global zinc mine production is forecast to rise by 4.3% to 12.43 million tonnes in 2025. Output gains are expected in Australia, China, Mexico, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Peru. European mine production will also rebound by 18.3%, driven by recoveries in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine.

Global refined zinc metal output is set to increase by 1.8%, reaching 13.73 million tonnes. Higher concentrate availability will support this growth, particularly from China and Norway, where Boliden has expanded its Odda smelter capacity by 150,000 t/yr. However, closures at Glencore’s Portovesme smelter in Italy and Toho Zinc’s Anakka facility in Japan will partially offset these gains.

Meanwhile, ILZSG projects that refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000t in 2025. Refined lead demand is set to grow by 1.5% to 13.19 million tonnes, while supply will expand by 1.9% to 13.27 million tonnes, mainly driven by production increases in China, India, Mexico, and the United States.

The zinc and lead markets are poised for critical adjustments as new supply streams emerge against a backdrop of geopolitical and economic headwinds.