GLE Alloys Stainless Nickel Yard to Open in Pennsylvania in May

GLE Scrap Metal

GLE Alloys stainless nickel yard development will give GLE Scrap Metal a dedicated platform for stainless steel and nickel processing in Pennsylvania. The full-service recycler plans to open the new non-ferrous yard in May through its newly created subsidiary, GLE Alloys.

The GLE Alloys stainless nickel yard is being built on 10 acres along the Monongahela River in Braddock. The site will include a dock for bulk barge loading, rail access, and about 80,000ft² of warehouse space.

The GLE Alloys stainless nickel yard strengthens GLE’s position in higher-value alloy scrap. Stainless steel and nickel scrap require more specialized sorting, handling, chemistry control, and logistics than ordinary ferrous scrap, making the new facility strategically relevant for mills, processors, and alloy consumers.

River, Rail and Warehouse Access Strengthen Scrap Logistics

The Braddock site’s logistics infrastructure is central to the project’s value. Barge loading on the Monongahela River gives GLE Alloys access to bulk movement, while rail access improves shipment flexibility for larger volumes.

The warehouse space also supports better material control. Stainless and nickel scrap often need segregation by grade, alloy family, and chemistry before shipment to consumers.

Braddock’s industrial location adds further relevance. The area is also home to US Steel’s Mon Valley blast furnace operations, placing GLE Alloys inside a long-established metals corridor with existing industrial infrastructure.

GLE Expands Beyond Regional Recycling Into Alloy Processing

GLE Scrap Metal already operates six recycling facilities in Florida and Michigan. The company also runs a copper wire processing plant in Ocoee, Florida, and has an aluminum wire and URD wire processing facility through sister company Mallin Companies in Kansas City.

The creation of GLE Alloys shows a more focused move into specialty scrap. Stainless steel and nickel-bearing materials are tied to stainless mills, superalloy producers, foundries, aerospace supply chains, energy equipment, and industrial manufacturing.

GLE has appointed James Merrills as commercial director and Tom Kaikis as operations director for the new subsidiary. Their stainless and nickel experience should support customer development, material sourcing, and operational discipline as the facility ramps up.

The Metalnomist Commentary

GLE’s Braddock investment shows that alloy scrap is becoming a more specialized and logistics-driven business. As nickel and stainless supply chains look for reliable secondary feedstock, yards with chemistry control, storage capacity, and multimodal transport will gain strategic value.

SHFE Indonesian Nickel Cathode Brands Strengthen Indonesia’s Class I Nickel Role

The Shanghai Futures Exchange

SHFE Indonesian nickel cathode brands have gained a major credibility boost after the Shanghai Futures Exchange approved two Indonesian-produced nickel cathode brands for delivery against SHFE contracts. The approvals cover PTENICO from Eternal Nickel Industry and DX zwdx from CNGR Dingxing New Energy.

The approvals mark an important step in Indonesia’s move from nickel ore and intermediate products toward exchange-deliverable Class I nickel. Indonesia has already become the world’s dominant nickel processing hub, but exchange approval gives its refined metal greater financial-market recognition.

SHFE Indonesian nickel cathode brands also reinforce the role of Chinese-backed industrial parks in building Indonesia’s downstream nickel value chain. Both approved producers are linked to major Chinese groups with strong positions in stainless steel or battery materials.

The development matters because exchange-deliverable nickel sits at the intersection of physical supply, futures market liquidity and industrial procurement. Approval by SHFE gives the brands wider acceptance among Chinese market participants and strengthens Indonesia’s role in Class I nickel trade.

Tsingshan and CNGR Extend Indonesia’s Refined Nickel Platform

Eternal Nickel Industry’s PTENICO brand was approved by SHFE after previously being listed on the London Metal Exchange on 16 December 2025. The company is a subsidiary of Chinese stainless steel producer Tsingshan Holding Group.

The plant is located in the Weda Bay Industrial Park in Halmahera, North Maluku. It uses an electrolytic process and has 50,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity, with nickel content of 99.96%.

Tsingshan’s involvement is strategically important. The group transformed global nickel markets through Indonesian nickel pig iron and stainless steel expansion, and it is now extending that influence into refined Class I nickel.

CNGR Dingxing New Energy’s DX zwdx brand was also approved by SHFE. The plant is located at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park and also uses an electrolytic process. It has 50,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity, with nickel content of 99.96%.

CNGR Dingxing is a subsidiary of CNGR, a major Chinese lithium-ion battery cathode active material precursor producer. This gives the brand a direct connection to battery materials supply chains, not only stainless steel demand.

The LME accepted CNGR Dingxing’s Indonesian nickel cathode brand in May 2024. It also approved cobalt cathode produced by CNGR in Qinzhou, Guangxi, in March, showing the company’s expanding exchange-approved metals footprint.

Together, PTENICO and DX zwdx represent 100,000 t/yr of Indonesian nickel cathode capacity. Their SHFE approval gives Indonesia a stronger position in futures-linked refined nickel supply.

Exchange Approval Changes Nickel Market Positioning

The two brands are the first Indonesian-produced nickel cathodes approved by SHFE for delivery. That is significant because Indonesia’s nickel rise was initially built around ore, nickel pig iron, ferronickel, matte and mixed hydroxide precipitate.

Exchange-deliverable cathode is a different market category. It requires tighter quality control, brand recognition and acceptance by financial and physical market users.

SHFE has approved Chinese-produced nickel cathode brands totalling 121,000 t since 2024. Adding Indonesian brands expands the pool of deliverable material and shows how Indonesia is being integrated into China’s nickel pricing and delivery system.

This could gradually influence nickel market structure. More deliverable Indonesian metal may improve flexibility for Chinese buyers, increase acceptable supply for futures settlement and strengthen the link between Indonesian production and Chinese exchange pricing.

The approvals also come during a period of Class I nickel oversupply. LME and SHFE inventories have risen as new refined nickel capacity has entered the market faster than demand growth from batteries and alloys.

Against that backdrop, brand approval can become a competitive advantage. Producers with exchange-deliverable status may have better access to financing, trade channels and customers that require recognised specifications.

For Indonesia, the approval supports a broader industrial policy objective. The country wants to capture more value from its nickel resources by moving beyond raw ore and intermediate exports into higher-value metal and battery materials.

For China, the approvals deepen supply-chain integration with Indonesian assets. Chinese companies are not only investing in Indonesian mines and smelters; they are building exchange-recognised refined metal capacity that can serve Chinese industrial and financial markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SHFE approval of Indonesian nickel cathode brands confirms that Indonesia is moving deeper into Class I nickel, not only bulk stainless and battery intermediates. The strategic issue now is whether this new exchange-deliverable capacity strengthens market liquidity or adds further pressure to an already oversupplied refined nickel market.

High-temperature metals and nickel rally reshape global superalloy cost structure

High-temperature metals

Surging demand and constrained supply mean the high-temperature metals and nickel rally is fundamentally reshaping superalloy cost structures. Aircraft engine and industrial gas turbine manufacturers are ordering at record levels just as key refractory metals move sharply higher. As a result, the high-temperature metals and nickel rally is squeezing melters that sit between volatile raw material markets and long-dated OEM contracts.

Rhenium-led cost shock hits second-generation superalloys

Rhenium has become the epicentre of the high-temperature metals and nickel rally despite representing only a small share of alloy weight. Intrinsic values for benchmark single-crystal alloys such as Rene N5 and CMSX-4 have jumped by more than 80pc in a year. This surge reflects rhenium’s critical role in creep strength and fatigue resistance in high-pressure turbine blades. However, rhenium remains a by-product of molybdenum from copper operations, which severely limits flexible supply. Other key elements such as tantalum and hafnium have also rallied, yet their relative contribution to alloy cost is still overshadowed by rhenium in second-generation chemistries.

Producers now face a difficult trade-off between performance and affordability as the high-temperature metals and nickel rally reopens the debate over alloy design. Second-generation alloys with roughly 3pc rhenium, including Rene N5 and CMSX-4, remain the market workhorses because they balance durability with cost. Meanwhile, third-generation alloys with higher rhenium contents remain less widely adopted, as OEMs hesitate to qualify materials whose economics depend on extreme minor-metal prices.

Tight turbine capacity, nickel rally and scrap strategy

Industrial gas turbine demand is amplifying the impact of the high-temperature metals and nickel rally on alloy buyers. MAR-M 247, a key alloy for IGT blisk castings, has seen calculated costs climb alongside hafnium and other minor metals. Lead times for major OEMs such as GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries reportedly stretch to around seven years. Commercial aircraft backlogs exceed a decade of production, leaving melt shops reluctant to miss their place in already strained queues.

Nickel’s rally adds a second layer of inflation even in lower rhenium or rhenium-free alloys. Benchmark nickel prices have jumped around 25pc since mid-December, supported by investor flows and policy risk premiums despite an oversupplied refined market. Nickel-based alloys only account for roughly 6pc of nickel demand, yet the price spike is clearly visible in less temperature-critical grades such as Inconel 718. Intrinsic values for Inconel 718 have risen on the back of nickel and niobium, lifting input costs for rings, casings and sheet parts across aerospace and energy applications.

To defend margins, melters are pushing scrap-based strategies as far as OEM specifications allow. High revert utilisation, sometimes up to 70pc of a melt, can partially shield producers from spot price volatility in primary metals. However, strict quality standards often restrict the use of externally sourced scrap, with some OEMs mandating internal revert only. Many melt shops therefore work “hand-to-mouth”, hesitant to lock in long-term tonnages at record prices while suppliers worry about replacing committed units in tightening markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The high-temperature metals and nickel rally is exposing how concentrated and opaque minor-metal supply chains remain, particularly for rhenium and tungsten. For investors and OEMs, the key strategic levers will be higher scrap utilisation, deeper recycling partnerships and more flexible alloy qualification pathways. Those who move fastest on revert, substitution and long-term offtakes will be best placed to secure turbine-grade material through the next decade of aerospace and power-generation growth.

Jutai Nickel Cathode Production Adds Flexibility to China’s Downstream Nickel Chain

Zhejiang Jutai Plant

Jutai nickel cathode production has started at Zhejiang Jutai’s integrated refinery in Zhoushan, adding new capacity to China’s fast-expanding downstream nickel processing sector. The facility has 30,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity and can use mixed hydroxide precipitate or nickel matte as feedstock.

Jutai nickel cathode production strengthens the company’s ability to respond to changing nickel market conditions. The same Zhoushan site also hosts a 100,000 t/yr nickel sulphate project that was commissioned in October 2025, giving the complex around 55,000 t/yr of nickel capacity on a metal equivalent basis.

The new operation matters because China is rapidly converting imported nickel intermediates into higher-value products. Jutai nickel cathode production shows how MHP and matte supply are reshaping the country’s refining system beyond battery chemicals alone.

MHP and Matte Supply Drive New Refining Capacity

Nickel intermediates are becoming the foundation of China’s new nickel processing model. Growing supplies of MHP and nickel matte allow refiners to produce nickel sulphate, nickel cathode, and other downstream products depending on margins and customer demand.

Zhejiang Jutai’s Zhoushan complex reflects this flexible approach. The company can switch between nickel sulphate and nickel cathode output, which gives it commercial optionality across battery materials and refined metal markets. This flexibility is important when nickel prices, sulphate demand, and stainless steel-linked sentiment move in different directions.

The development also shows how China continues to capture value from Indonesia-linked nickel flows. As MHP and matte availability expands, Chinese refiners can build more diversified processing routes and strengthen their role in the global nickel value chain.

China Nickel Cathode Output Continues to Expand

China’s nickel cathode production reached 415,000t in 2025, up 24pc from the previous year. Output is expected to keep rising in 2026 as new capacity starts up, existing plants expand, and firmer nickel prices improve production economics.

Higher LME nickel prices are also supporting the sector. The average LME cash price reached $15,150/t in 2025, while the year-to-date average climbed to $17,482/t by late February, driven partly by reduced Indonesian nickel ore supply.

Shaanxi Jutai, Zhejiang Jutai’s parent company, already has experience in battery material production. Its Xi’an complex began producing nickel sulphate in 2018 and also produces cobalt sulphate, manganese sulphate, vanadium pentoxide, and molybdenum products. This gives the group a broader platform across strategic metals used in batteries, alloys, and industrial materials.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Jutai’s Zhoushan project highlights China’s strength in processing flexibility. The country is not only adding nickel capacity; it is building assets that can shift between battery chemicals and refined metal as market conditions change.

ATI Aerospace and Defense Demand Lifts 2026 Guidance

ATI

ATI aerospace and defense demand strengthened in the first quarter, prompting the specialty alloys manufacturer to raise its full-year earnings outlook. The Texas-based company lifted its 2026 adjusted profit guidance by $35mn to $1.01bn-1.06bn.

ATI aerospace and defense demand was strongest in jet engine materials, defence alloys and missile-related products. The company exceeded the high end of its first-quarter forecast by nearly $7mn, reporting adjusted profit of $232mn.

ATI aerospace and defense demand shows that high-performance metals remain central to the aircraft production ramp and defence replenishment cycle. Titanium, nickel-based alloys, isothermal forgings, zirconium and hafnium are all tied to programmes where qualification, lead times and supply reliability matter.

Quarterly profit rose by 20% on the year to nearly $120mn, while revenue increased by 6.2% to almost $1.2bn.

Jet Engine Materials Keep Specialty Alloy Lead Times Tight

Commercial jet engine sales rose by 12% on the year to $472mn, making the segment ATI’s largest product category. The company expects mid-teens growth in jet engine sales this year.

Demand is being driven by original equipment manufacturers and aftermarket service providers. Both need reliable access to specialty alloys and isothermal forgings as engine production and repair activity expand.

This is strategically important because jet engines consume some of the most demanding materials in the aerospace supply chain. Nickel-based superalloys, titanium alloys and premium-quality forgings must meet strict performance standards under heat, stress and fatigue conditions.

ATI is also working to qualify its new electron-beam furnace for premium-quality titanium at its Richland, Washington facility. This material is used in rotor-grade engine parts.

Approval of the furnace would help reduce pressure on ATI’s other premium-quality titanium melting operations. Some lead times for this material are now close to two years.

That lead-time signal matters. Aerospace buyers are not only chasing capacity. They are trying to secure qualified melt routes for materials that cannot be easily substituted.

Commercial airframe sales moved lower in the first quarter, falling by 9.3% to nearly $187mn. Airframers and OEMs continued drawing down internal stocks of raw materials and components.

However, ATI expects full-year airframe sales to grow by mid-to-upper single digits, with demand backloaded into the second half as inventories normalise. This should support stronger sales of standard-quality titanium used in structural aircraft components.

The company also expects much stronger titanium sales growth in 2027, based on long-term order patterns and customer production plans.

Defence Orders Strengthen Zirconium, Hafnium and Missile Materials

Defence sales rose by 9.3% on the year to $139mn in the first quarter. ATI expects full-year defence revenue to rise by low-to-mid teens from 2025 levels.

The company renewed a five-year, $1bn contract supporting the US Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program. This will drive continued demand for specialty alloys containing zirconium and hafnium.

Zirconium and hafnium are strategically important in nuclear and defence supply chains. Their use requires tight quality control, reliable processing and long-term customer qualification.

Missile-related demand also strengthened. ATI said first-quarter missile revenue doubled from a year earlier as contractors increased production and replenished munitions inventories.

The company supplies titanium and nickel products used in structural and propulsion applications for missile programmes, including Tomahawk, Patriot Advanced Capability-3 and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptors.

Nickel-based and specialty alloys remained ATI’s largest revenue source, accounting for 49% of total sales in the quarter. Precision forgings, castings and components accounted for 20%, while titanium and titanium-based alloys represented 17%.

The mix shows ATI’s strategic position. The company is exposed to aerospace engine growth, defence replenishment, naval nuclear programmes and missile production, all of which depend on hard-to-qualify specialty metals.

ATI’s raised guidance therefore reflects more than a cyclical recovery. It points to structural demand for advanced materials across aerospace, defence and energy-security-related programmes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ATI’s guidance increase confirms that aerospace and defence demand is pushing pressure upstream into qualified melt capacity and specialty alloys. The real bottleneck is not generic metal supply, but premium titanium, nickel alloys, zirconium, hafnium and forgings that meet mission-critical specifications.

ARM Nkomati Nickel Mine Restart Moves Closer With Boliden Concentrate Deal

African Rainbow Minerals

ARM Nkomati nickel mine restart prospects have strengthened after African Rainbow Minerals signed a multi-year nickel concentrate sales agreement with Swedish mining and smelting group Boliden. The agreement could support the return of one of South Africa’s important multi-metal nickel assets.

The ARM Nkomati nickel mine has been on care and maintenance since 2020. ARM and Norilsk Nickel placed the operation into suspension after profitability weakened because of lower output.

The ARM Nkomati nickel mine produced nickel, copper, cobalt, chrome and platinum group metals. Its potential restart would therefore add more than nickel units to the market, supporting several metals linked to batteries, stainless steel, alloys and industrial supply chains.

The deal with Boliden remains conditional. It depends on approval to recommence open-pit mining of nickel-bearing ore at Nkomati, responsible sourcing due diligence by Boliden and other regulatory clearances.

Boliden Agreement Gives Nkomati a Processing Route

The sales agreement gives ARM a potential outlet for Nkomati nickel concentrate if mining restarts. Boliden expects the concentrate to be shipped to its Harjavalta smelter in Finland.

Harjavalta produces nickel matte, making it a logical destination for nickel-bearing concentrate. The route would connect South African mine supply with European smelting capacity.

This matters because nickel concentrate needs secure processing access before a restart can become commercially meaningful. A mine can have geological potential, but it still needs offtake, logistics, smelting capacity and customer qualification.

Boliden’s responsible sourcing due diligence is also important. European smelters and customers increasingly require stronger documentation around mine origin, ESG standards and supply-chain integrity.

The agreement therefore does more than provide a buyer. It gives the Nkomati restart a possible downstream pathway into a European refining and smelting system.

For ARM, the deal could improve the commercial case for reopening the mine. For Boliden, it could provide another concentrate source for its nickel operations at a time when secure non-Indonesian nickel supply remains strategically relevant.

South African Nickel Supply Could Regain Strategic Relevance

Nkomati’s ownership structure has changed since the mine entered care and maintenance. Nornickel’s South African subsidiary agreed in November 2023 to transfer its 50% stake to ARM, and the transaction was finalised in July 2025.

Full ARM control gives the South African company more direct strategic flexibility. It can evaluate restart options without the same joint-venture complexity that previously shaped the asset.

The potential restart comes at a time when nickel markets remain divided. Indonesia dominates new supply growth, but European and western buyers are increasingly interested in diversified, traceable and geopolitically balanced feedstock.

Nkomati’s multi-metal profile adds to its relevance. Nickel remains important for stainless steel, batteries and superalloys. Cobalt supports batteries and high-performance alloys. Platinum group metals serve automotive catalysts, hydrogen technologies and industrial applications.

However, restart economics will be the decisive issue. The mine was suspended because lower output weakened profitability. Any recommencement will need a stronger operating plan, stable grades, reliable processing economics and clear market support.

The Boliden agreement is an important step, but not the final decision. The project still needs operational approval, regulatory clearance and successful due diligence before concentrate flows can resume.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ARM-Boliden agreement shows that idled nickel assets can regain value when buyers prioritise diversified and traceable supply. Nkomati’s restart will depend less on headline nickel prices alone and more on whether ARM can rebuild a reliable mine-to-smelter route.

Eternal Nickel LME listing reshapes Indonesian nickel trade

Eternal Nickel

The Eternal Nickel LME listing marks a new phase for Indonesian nickel as PTENICO cathodes move toward global benchmark status and add fresh liquidity to a market already facing surplus pressure. Eternal Nickel, a subsidiary of China’s Tsingshan Group, has applied for the Eternal Nickel LME listing with full-plate nickel cathodes produced at Weda Bay in North Maluku, where nameplate capacity reaches 50,000 t/yr. As a result, the Eternal Nickel LME listing would cement Indonesia’s role in refined nickel, not just intermediate products, while also deepening the pool of deliverable brands for price discovery on the London Metal Exchange.

Eternal Nickel LME listing adds to Asian LME nickel capacity

The proposed Eternal Nickel LME listing comes only months after the first Indonesian brand, DX-zwdx, secured LME approval in 2024, lifting new Asian registered capacity to 232,600 t since mid-2023. PTENICO cathodes would be the second Indonesian nickel brand listed, reinforcing the rapid shift of refined nickel capacity toward Indonesia as high-pressure acid leach and conversion projects mature. Meanwhile, surplus nickel has been flowing into LME warehouses because many producers find LME delivery the most efficient route to immediate liquidity. LME nickel stocks climbed to 224,700 t in September from 162,336 t in January, with Chinese-origin material surging to 152,454 t from 81,564 t. Therefore, any additional Indonesian cathode tonnage registered on the LME is likely to weigh further on prices, even if it improves tradability and hedging options for consumers.

Surplus stocks pressure prices as more Indonesian cathodes line up

The Eternal Nickel LME listing would arrive in a market where the official three-month LME nickel price has stayed rangebound around $15,000–16,000/t, averaging just $15,432/t in 2024. However, producers continue to commission new cathode capacity and are actively preparing LME applications, treating warehouses as an outlet for surplus production rather than cutting supply. Indonesian producer Nickel Industries Limited plans to add nickel cathode output, while major producer QMB is upgrading its technology to produce LME-grade cathodes, both from plants in Central Sulawesi. As these projects advance, more Indonesian cathode brands are expected to seek registration, reinforcing the structural oversupply narrative and keeping spot prices under pressure, even as stainless steel and battery sectors look for cost advantages.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Eternal Nickel LME listing underlines how Indonesia is moving rapidly up the nickel value chain from ore and intermediates to globally deliverable cathode brands. For traders and hedgers, more Indonesian brands enhance liquidity and flexibility, but they also lock in a heavier overhang of exchange stocks that can cap rallies. Strategically, the trend raises important questions for non-Indonesian producers: competing on cost alone against the Weda Bay and Sulawesi hubs will be tough, making product differentiation, specialty alloys and long-term customer partnerships more critical than ever.

NPI–Class I Nickel Spread Narrows as Metal Oversupply Pressures Prices

Nickel cathode

NPI–class I nickel spread narrowed sharply in March as persistent oversupply in the class I nickel market pushed metal prices lower, while nickel pig iron prices stayed supported by elevated production costs. The average spread fell to $2,975/t in March, down from the 2025 annual average of $3,696/t.

The narrower NPI–class I nickel spread shows how differently the two nickel markets are behaving. Class I nickel remains under pressure from high exchange stocks and weak absorption from battery and alloy users. NPI, by contrast, is being held up by Indonesian ore costs and a firmer production cost floor.

The current spread also discourages additional class I output from NPI conversion. Estimated conversion costs from NPI to class I nickel remain around $4,000/t, meaning producers using NPI as feedstock would face negative margins at current price levels.

This creates an important signal for the nickel supply chain. Oversupply is still weighing on refined metal, but high feedstock and processing costs are preventing prices from falling evenly across all nickel products.

Class I Nickel Oversupply Keeps Metal Prices Under Pressure

Class I nickel oversupply remains the main reason behind the compressed spread. London Metal Exchange nickel stocks reached 289,506t on 26 February, the highest level since May 2018.

Ample exchange inventory has pressured class I nickel prices and opened an import arbitrage window into China. China’s nickel imports rose by 18% in January-February as lower overseas prices made imported metal more attractive.

However, end-user demand has not been strong enough to absorb the surplus. Battery and alloy-sector consumption remained insufficient to clear the additional metal units, pushing Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel stocks higher.

SHFE nickel inventories rose to 65,764t on 10 April from 45,544t on 9 January. This inventory build shows that imports and domestic availability are running ahead of immediate consumption.

The oversupply problem is structural in the near term. New class I capacity has continued to emerge, while demand from stainless steel, batteries and specialty alloys has not grown fast enough to rebalance the market.

The NPI conversion route is therefore unattractive. When the NPI–class I nickel spread sits below conversion cost, producers have little incentive to turn NPI into refined metal. This helps prevent additional supply from that route, but it does not immediately remove existing class I oversupply.

NPI prices have been more resilient because they are tied closely to Indonesian ore economics. Indonesian nickel ore prices remain elevated and continue to trade above the government-mandated price floor.

Concerns over tight ore availability have supported feedstock values. This has limited NPI producers’ willingness to cut prices, even though stainless steel demand remains only average.

That cost floor is important. NPI is not rising because downstream demand is exceptionally strong. It is holding because ore, mining quotas and Indonesian pricing policy are preventing a deeper fall.

The result is a distorted market structure. Class I nickel is being pulled down by inventory pressure, while NPI is being supported by feedstock costs. This explains why the spread has narrowed despite weak overall nickel sentiment.

MHP and HPAL Costs Could Rebuild the Spread Over Time

Mixed hydroxide precipitate is becoming the more important cost driver for future class I nickel production. Much of the newly added class I capacity relies on MHP feedstock rather than NPI.

Integrated producers with their own Indonesian MHP capacity have a cost advantage. Their MHP production costs are estimated at around $13,000/t in nickel metal equivalent, with conversion costs from MHP to metal at roughly $3,000/t.

This places the total cost of class I production through the MHP route at about $16,000/t. That cost base can still support production for integrated operators, but it leaves less room for producers relying on third-party MHP.

The market problem is that MHP supply is not sufficient to meet all feedstock requirements for new class I capacity. This creates competition for MHP units and limits how much low-cost refined nickel can be produced through this route.

Cost pressure is also rising across HPAL operations. Middle East tensions have tightened sulphur availability and lifted sulphur prices, which directly affects MHP producers that rely on sulphuric acid-intensive processing.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid are central to HPAL economics. Any disruption to sulphur flows can raise operating costs, reduce margins or force producers to curtail output if acid availability becomes constrained.

Indonesia’s revised nickel ore pricing formula adds another layer of pressure. The new formula is expected to have a greater impact on ore consumed by HPAL projects than on ore used by rotary kiln electric furnace operations.

This is because HPAL ore often trades closer to official pricing levels, while RKEF ore used for NPI already trades at premiums well above the benchmark. As a result, HPAL producers may feel the revised HPM framework more directly.

Higher ore prices and higher taxes could lift MHP production costs. That would eventually raise the cost floor for class I nickel produced through the MHP route, especially for integrated producers that had previously enjoyed lower feedstock costs.

This cost inflation may support class I nickel prices over time. While current oversupply is weighing on metal values, producers cannot keep adding supply indefinitely if feedstock and conversion costs rise.

NPI prices are also likely to remain anchored by costs. Indonesian ore tightness, quota uncertainty and pricing reforms should continue to support NPI even if stainless steel demand stays moderate.

As MHP costs rise and NPI prices remain cost-supported, the NPI–class I nickel spread may widen back toward the $3,500-4,000/t range over time. That would restore a more normal relationship between feedstock products and refined metal.

However, the timing depends on inventory absorption. Class I nickel prices will struggle to recover strongly until exchange stocks stop rising and downstream demand improves.

For battery supply chains, the key issue is cost pass-through. If MHP and HPAL costs rise while class I prices remain weak, margins across nickel sulphate and cathode material chains could tighten.

For stainless steel producers, NPI resilience means raw material costs may remain sticky even without strong demand. This could limit margin recovery if finished stainless prices do not rise in parallel.

The nickel market is therefore entering a complex adjustment phase. Oversupply is pushing refined metal lower, while policy, ore availability, sulphur costs and HPAL economics are raising the cost floor beneath intermediate products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The narrowing NPI–class I nickel spread is not a sign of healthy convergence. It reflects class I oversupply on one side and cost-protected NPI on the other. The next shift will likely come from rising HPAL and MHP costs, not from a sudden recovery in nickel demand.

Nickel Deficit Forecast Emerges as Indonesia Tightens Ore Supply

Nickel manufacturing

Nickel deficit conditions are expected to return in 2026 as Indonesia tightens ore supply controls and stainless steel demand continues to grow. The International Nickel Study Group forecasts global primary nickel production of 3.715mn t against usage of 3.747mn t, implying a deficit of 32,000t.

The nickel deficit would mark a sharp change after three consecutive years of surplus. The market recorded surpluses of 175,000t in 2023, 116,000t in 2024 and 283,000t in 2025.

The nickel deficit forecast remains modest, but it carries strategic significance because it depends heavily on Indonesian policy. Indonesia has been the main driver of global nickel supply growth, and tighter controls on ore mining could slow the expansion that previously pushed the market into surplus.

The Middle East conflict is adding another layer of uncertainty. Higher energy prices, inflation pressure and disrupted sulphur flows could affect nickel production costs, especially for high-pressure acid leach operations in Indonesia.

Indonesia Ore Controls Reshape Nickel Supply Growth

Indonesia’s approved nickel ore mining quota for 2026 has been set significantly lower than in 2025. The quota can still be revised, but the initial reduction has already changed market expectations.

The country’s revised mineral benchmark pricing mechanism also took effect on 15 April. The new HPM formula raises base prices for all nickel ore grades and includes cobalt, iron and chromium in the valuation for the first time.

This matters because Indonesian nickel supply is no longer expanding under the same low-cost conditions that drove rapid output growth. Ore access, ore pricing, royalties and contained metal values are all becoming more tightly managed.

The policy impact is not evenly distributed. Eramet’s PT Weda Bay Nickel mine is preparing to enter care and maintenance in May after receiving an initial ore quota of just 12mn wet metric tonnes. This is far below last year’s final permit of up to 42mn wmt.

In contrast, Nickel Industries received quota approvals of 14.3mn wmt, up from 10.5mn wmt in 2025. This shows that Indonesia’s controls are not simply cutting all supply. They are also reshaping which operators receive ore access.

The quota system could therefore become a major competitive factor. Producers with larger approved volumes may gain stronger operating flexibility, while others face lower utilisation, higher costs or temporary shutdowns.

HPAL producers are especially exposed. These plants require steady limonite ore supply and large volumes of sulphuric acid or sulphur-linked feedstock. Tighter ore availability and higher reagent costs can quickly pressure margins.

Disrupted sulphur flows from the Middle East conflict have raised concern over HPAL feedstock availability. This is important because Indonesian HPAL projects have become key suppliers of mixed hydroxide precipitate for battery material production.

If sulphur costs remain elevated and ore prices rise under the new HPM formula, HPAL production costs could increase materially. That would weaken the low-cost supply advantage that helped Indonesia dominate battery-linked nickel intermediates.

Stainless Steel Supports Demand as Batteries Disappoint

Stainless steel remains the main support for nickel demand. INSG said the stainless steel sector grew in 2025 and is expected to expand further in 2026.

This is important because stainless steel still consumes far more nickel than the battery sector. Demand from stainless steel, alloys and industrial uses continues to anchor the primary nickel market.

Battery demand has grown more slowly than earlier expectations. Lithium iron phosphate chemistries have gained market share, reducing nickel intensity in parts of the electric vehicle market.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle demand has also outpaced fully battery-electric vehicle demand in some markets. This has limited the speed at which nickel-rich battery chemistries absorb new supply.

The result is a market caught between two forces. Supply growth is slowing because of Indonesian ore controls and higher input costs. However, battery demand is not rising fast enough to create a large structural shortage.

This makes the 2026 nickel deficit highly sensitive to policy and disruption. If Indonesia raises quotas, supply could recover. If sulphur, energy or ore costs worsen, the deficit could deepen.

The forecast also changes the market narrative. Nickel has spent recent years under pressure from surplus supply and rising inventories. A move into deficit, even a small one, could stabilise sentiment and support prices.

Still, the deficit is not yet a sign of broad scarcity. It is a warning that Indonesia’s supply discipline, not battery demand alone, is now determining the market balance.

For producers, cost control and ore access will become more important. For buyers, the focus will shift toward supplier reliability, feedstock route and exposure to Indonesian policy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The nickel market is not tightening because batteries suddenly absorbed the surplus. It is tightening because Indonesia is putting discipline into ore supply while HPAL costs rise. That makes the nickel deficit more policy-driven than demand-driven.

ATI and USW Finalize Six-Year Labor Agreement for Specialty Alloys Division

ATI

ATI has finalized a six-year labor agreement with the United Steelworkers (USW), securing workforce stability across its specialty rolled products division. The deal, covering nearly 1,000 union employees, applies to six ATI facilities in Pennsylvania and one in New York. This development strengthens labor continuity at a time of increased demand for high-performance alloys used in aerospace, defense, and energy sectors.

The new ATI labor agreement ensures uninterrupted production of stainless steel, nickel alloys, cobalt alloys, and titanium-based products. ATI produces these materials in various forms, including sheet, strip, and plate, all critical for supply chains that depend on corrosion resistance, high-temperature strength, and specialty metallurgical performance. The agreement also reflects mutual confidence between ATI and the USW after past labor disputes.

Labor Stability Strengthens ATI’s Specialty Metals Output

The ATI labor agreement stabilizes operations across key manufacturing sites that serve aerospace, medical, and energy customers. These sectors require reliable supply of specialty alloys like nickel superalloys and titanium plate, which are often constrained by both technical complexity and production scale. Labor stability allows ATI to continue executing its strategy of focusing on high-margin, differentiated materials.

ATI’s recent capacity investments in its specialty rolled products segment suggest growing customer demand for advanced materials. The secured labor contract now reduces the risk of production disruptions and supports ATI’s long-term service commitments to strategic customers.

Titanium and Nickel Alloy Markets Benefit from Secure Supply Chain

By locking in a long-term labor agreement, ATI improves predictability in the nickel alloy and titanium product markets, where delays or shortages can significantly impact OEMs. As supply chain risk remains a top concern for defense and aerospace contractors, ATI's ability to maintain a stable, union-backed workforce adds resilience to its role in the specialty metals ecosystem.

This move also enhances ATI’s positioning in government contracts and specialty component supply, where operational reliability and labor compliance are prerequisites.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The new ATI labor agreement marks a strategic win for North American specialty metals stability. At a time of geopolitical supply risk and defense material bottlenecks, labor certainty helps ATI meet growing downstream demand for high-performance alloys.

Supply Cuts to Rebalance Nickel Market, Says Nornickel

Russian metals giant Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) has projected a long-term rebalancing of the global nickel market, driven by price-induced closures of nickel operations, particularly in Australia and New Caledonia. These supply cuts, combined with a steady rise in demand, are expected to increase the floor price of nickel from its current range of $16,000-17,000 per ton.

Short-Term Nickel Market Outlook

In the short term, Nornickel holds a neutral stance on nickel prices. While supply cuts from loss-making operations are underway, the growing supply of Chinese Class 1 nickel—most of which is being delivered to the London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses in Asia—has kept prices in check. The nickel market experienced a surplus of 75,000 tons in the first half of 2024, with exchange stocks rising by 40,000 tons during the same period. Nornickel estimates the global surplus will remain at 100,000 tons annually for both 2024 and 2025.

Impact of Falling Prices on Nickel Production

The sharp decline in nickel prices this year, which saw the metal dip below $16,000 per ton, has put significant pressure on producers. Nornickel estimates that over half of the world’s nickel production is currently generating only marginal positive cash flow. Approximately 400,000 tons of global nickel capacity is either idle or at risk of closure. However, the company expects a steady rise in nickel demand, driven by stainless steel production in China, a recovery in Indonesia, and continued growth in the aerospace, oil and gas, and military sectors, which require specialized alloys and superalloys.

Palladium Market Outlook and Financial Challenges

In addition to its outlook on nickel, Nornickel anticipates easing in the palladium market’s destocking by the end of the year. The company expects palladium to remain in deficit, with a shortfall of 400,000 ounces and a 2% year-on-year drop in demand to 9.6 million ounces.

Nornickel’s financial results for the first half of 2024 reflect the challenges faced by the nickel and palladium markets. Revenue dropped by 22% to $5.606 billion, while EBITDA declined by 30% to $2.35 billion. Net profit fell by 23% to $829 million. The group attributed these declines to logistical disruptions, including issues in the Red Sea, and complications arising from Western sanctions on Russia.

Copper Market Outlook

Nornickel remains cautiously optimistic about copper prices in the medium term, although near-term signals are bearish due to persistent inflation in Europe and the U.S., and deflationary concerns in China, the world's top copper consumer.

Materion AI Demand Lifts Sales as Defence Orders Strengthen

Materion

Materion AI demand helped drive a sharp rise in first-quarter sales as electronics, defence and semiconductor customers increased orders for advanced materials. The US-based producer reported net sales of $549.8mn, up 30.8% from a year earlier.

Materion AI demand was most visible in the company’s electronic materials segment, where sales rose strongly on higher demand from chipmaking applications. Adjusted Ebitda increased by 8.6% to $52.9mn, showing that revenue growth translated into stronger earnings despite mixed performance across business units.

Materion AI demand also reflects a broader industrial trend. Artificial intelligence is increasing demand for logic chips, memory devices, thin-film materials, high-purity chemicals and precision components used across the semiconductor supply chain.

The company’s order backlog rose by more than 20% year on year at the end of the quarter. Defence orders exceeded $60mn, while open requests for quotations surpassed $300mn, indicating continued momentum in aerospace and defence materials.

AI Chips Lift Electronic Materials Sales

Materion’s electronic materials segment delivered the strongest growth in the quarter. Net sales rose to $363.3mn from $224.8mn a year earlier.

The segment produces tantalum sputtering targets for thin-film vapour deposition. These targets are used in semiconductor manufacturing, especially in logic and memory chip production.

Tantalum is important because it supports thin, reliable and high-performance films inside advanced chips. As AI workloads grow, semiconductor manufacturers need more materials that support higher computing power, better efficiency and tighter device architectures.

Materion also produces advanced chemicals and semiconductor materials. These products place the company deeper inside the AI hardware supply chain, where material purity, consistency and qualification are critical.

The sales increase shows that AI is not only driving demand for finished chips or data centre hardware. It is also increasing demand for upstream specialty materials that enable chip fabrication.

This is significant for minor metals and advanced materials suppliers. AI growth is pulling more value toward high-purity inputs, sputtering targets, deposition materials, precision optics and performance alloys.

Defence Backlog Supports Performance Materials Recovery

Materion’s aerospace and defence order rates increased by 50% over the past 12 months. Energy order rates rose by more than 20%, while semiconductor order rates increased by 10%.

The defence order book is especially important. More than $60mn of defence orders in one quarter, combined with over $300mn in open quotation requests, gives Materion stronger visibility into future demand.

Materion’s performance-materials segment had a weaker first quarter. Net sales fell to $155.7mn from $174mn a year earlier, mainly because of lower precision-clad material sales.

However, the company expects performance-material sales to improve from the second quarter. Aerospace and defence demand should support the recovery.

The segment includes beryllium products and alloys, along with niobium, tantalum and nickel alloys. These materials serve demanding applications where strength, conductivity, thermal stability, corrosion resistance or weight reduction are essential.

Materion had suspended clad-strip production in the fourth quarter of 2025 because of material quality problems. Production resumed as expected in January-March and returned to pre-issue levels.

Precision optics also strengthened. Sales rose by 43% to $30.8mn, with demand improving across life sciences, consumer electronics, automotive, aerospace and defence, and semiconductors.

The result shows that Materion is exposed to several high-value growth channels at once. AI supports electronics materials, defence supports performance alloys, and precision optics benefits from advanced manufacturing and semiconductor demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Materion’s quarter shows how AI and defence demand are pulling specialty materials deeper into strategic supply chains. The key signal is not just higher sales, but the growing importance of tantalum, beryllium, niobium, nickel alloys and precision optics in advanced manufacturing.

Nornickel Nickel Output Holds Flat as Copper and PGM Production Decline

Nornickel

Nornickel nickel output was broadly stable in the first quarter, while the Russian multi-metals producer reported lower copper and platinum group metal production from a high year-earlier base. Consolidated nickel production edged up by 0.3% on the year to 41,746t in January-March.

Nornickel nickel output stability contrasts with weaker copper, palladium and platinum volumes. Copper output fell by 10% to 98,679t, palladium production dropped by 18% to 608,000oz, and platinum output declined by 24% to 136,000oz.

Nornickel said the lower copper and PGM figures reflected a high production base in the first quarter of 2025 and the redistribution of commercial product volumes between quarters. The company maintained its full-year 2026 production guidance.

The result shows that Nornickel nickel output remains comparatively steady, while quarterly copper and PGM figures can move sharply because of timing, ore processing patterns and product shipment schedules.

Nickel Stability Supports Core Production Outlook

Nickel remains one of Nornickel’s most important products because of its role in stainless steel, high-performance alloys, batteries and industrial manufacturing. Stable first-quarter output suggests that the company’s core nickel operations remain within its planned production range.

Nornickel kept its 2026 Russian feedstock guidance unchanged at 193,000-203,000t for nickel. This indicates that the company does not currently view the flat first-quarter result as a signal of operational weakness.

The nickel market remains sensitive to supply from Russia because Nornickel is a major producer of high-grade material. Even when global nickel markets face oversupply from Indonesian growth, Russian nickel still has strategic relevance for stainless steel, alloy and battery-linked consumers.

Copper showed a weaker quarterly result. Output from the company’s own Russian feedstock, excluding Trans-Baikal, totalled 80,000t during the period.

However, the Bystrinsky copper project in the Trans-Baikal division performed better. Copper in concentrate output rose by 6% on the year to 18,545t, supported by higher ore processing volumes and higher metal content in ore.

This improvement at Bystrinsky partly offsets the wider copper decline. It also shows the importance of ore grade and processing throughput in quarterly copper performance.

Nornickel maintained its 2026 Russian feedstock copper guidance at 336,000-356,000t. Guidance for Trans-Baikal copper in concentrate also remained unchanged at 69,000-73,000t.

PGM Decline Reflects Timing Rather Than Guidance Change

Nornickel’s platinum group metals output fell sharply in the first quarter, but the company did not adjust its full-year forecast. Palladium output fell by 18%, while platinum declined by 24%.

The company attributed the weaker figures to a high comparison base and quarterly timing effects in commercial products. This suggests the decline may not translate directly into lower full-year supply.

Nornickel kept its 2026 palladium guidance at 2.415mn-2.465mn oz and platinum guidance at 616,000-636,000oz. These metals remain important for automotive catalysts, electronics, chemicals, hydrogen technologies, jewellery and industrial applications.

The PGM market remains highly concentrated, with Russia and South Africa playing major roles in primary supply. Any sustained change in Russian production can therefore influence availability, trade flows and customer procurement strategies.

For buyers, the first-quarter data point to the need to separate operational weakness from quarterly timing. Lower reported output can affect sentiment, but unchanged guidance suggests Nornickel expects production to normalise across the year.

The broader strategic issue remains Russian supply exposure. Nornickel’s metals are important to global nickel, copper and PGM supply chains, but geopolitical risk, sanctions compliance and trade route uncertainty continue to shape how buyers handle Russian-origin material.

The first-quarter result therefore carries a mixed message. Nickel output remained stable, Bystrinsky copper improved, and full-year guidance was unchanged. However, lower copper and PGM production underline the importance of monitoring quarterly timing, product flows and operating consistency.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nornickel’s first-quarter figures suggest stability in nickel but greater quarterly volatility in copper and PGMs. For global buyers, the bigger issue is not only production volume, but how Russian-origin metals move through increasingly complex trade and compliance channels.

TSR Acquires German Plant to Expand Copper Alloys Production

TSR Recycling

TSR Recycling, a leading European metals recycler, has successfully acquired Siegfried Jost GmbH & Co NE Metallhandel and its electric melting plant in Menden, Germany. The acquisition strengthens TSR’s position in the copper alloys market by adding advanced production capabilities, particularly in the smelting of copper alloys from recycled raw materials.

Expansion into Copper Alloys and Smelting Expertise

The Menden plant specializes in the production of copper alloys, which are used primarily in industries such as sanitation and glass manufacturing. These alloys include materials such as brass, special brass, nickel bronze, aluminum bronze, and gunmetal. Siegfried Jost also handles production residues like slag, dross, sand, and swarf, which are further processed in the electric melting plant to create high-quality alloys.

TSR’s acquisition not only broadens its portfolio but also allows the company to expand its expertise in smelting processes, particularly for copper alloys produced from recycled materials. The move marks a strategic step for TSR in enhancing its recycling capabilities and furthering its commitment to sustainable metal production. In a LinkedIn post on November 4, TSR emphasized that the acquisition would enable the company to leverage its in-depth know-how of smelting processes to meet the growing demand for high-quality copper alloys in various industries.

Strategic Growth for TSR Recycling

By integrating Siegfried Jost’s advanced alloy production facility, TSR is set to improve its market position and expand its service offerings in the copper alloys sector. The move aligns with the company's broader goals to increase its recycling operations, contributing to both sustainability and the growing demand for recycled metal alloys in European industries.

LME Nickel approval boosts deliverable supply

LME

LME nickel approval for China’s Jien expands deliverable supply and pressures class-1 prices as inventories swell across SHFE and LME. The LME nickel approval covers full-plate and cut cathodes made after 19 February 2024 at Jilin, with 5,000 t/yr capacity. As a result, total newly approved Chinese class-1 capacity on the LME now stands at 126,600 t/yr. The LME nickel approval arrives amid a surplus of class-1 metal that continues to funnel into exchange warehouses.

Deliverable supply expands after LME nickel approval

Jien’s fast-track listing enlarges the pool of LME-deliverable cathode and improves physical availability. Meanwhile, sellers keep delivering excess class-1 nickel into warehouses, seeking carry returns and balance-sheet relief. This flow has weighed on outright prices and loosened time spreads in recent weeks.

Inventories jump as sellers deliver into warehouses

Exchange stocks have climbed notably since mid-April. SHFE inventories rose from 22,541t to 25,451t, while LME inventories surged from 75,516t to 209,082t. Therefore, the class-1/class-2 spread has tightened, reducing premiums over nickel pig iron. Class-1 nickel is high-purity cathode or electrowon metal typically listed on the LME. Class-2 nickel, mainly NPI from China and Indonesia, contains about 10–14% nickel and feeds stainless mills.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Jien’s listing strengthens China-to-LME optionality and deepens liquidity in class-1 units. However, the approval lands into a stock-heavy market, so price support likely hinges on destocking or a demand surprise from batteries or aerospace alloys. Watch LME/SHFE arbitrage and cash-to-three-month spreads for early signals of a turn.

SUPER METAL PRICE Launches 'The Metals Grade Atlas' eBook: A Definitive Handbook for the Specialty Metals Industry

eBook: 'The Metals Grade Atlas'

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About SUPER METAL PRICE

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Contact

Website: www.supermetalprice.com

eBook Purchase: Visit the digital download page

This press release is based on publicly available information from SUPER METAL PRICE.

Acerinox Earnings Fall as Stainless Steel Price Pressure Offsets Higher Output

Acerinox

Acerinox earnings fell in 2025 as weak stainless steel demand, price pressure, and import competition outweighed higher production and revenue growth. The Spanish stainless steel and high-performance alloys producer reported adjusted Ebitda of €422mn, down 5.2pc from the previous year.

Acerinox earnings came under deeper pressure on a reported basis. Reported Ebitda fell by 29pc to €354mn, affected by a €60mn inventory adjustment and a €9mn provision linked to Acerinox Europa’s staff rejuvenation plan.

The group also moved to a €40mn loss after tax and non-controlling interests, compared with a €225mn profit in 2024. Revenue still rose by 7pc to €5.78bn, supported by higher output and the first full-year consolidation of Haynes International.

Stainless Steel Division Faces Weak Europe and Import Pressure

Acerinox increased production in 2025, but the stainless steel division remained under margin pressure. Group melt shop production rose by 6pc to 1.87mn t, while stainless steel melt shop output increased by 7pc to 1.78mn t.

Cold rolling production also rose by 7pc to 1.16mn t. However, stronger volumes did not protect profitability. The stainless steel division’s Ebitda fell by 43pc to €219mn as low European demand and import competition pushed prices lower.

The fourth quarter showed how fragile the market remains. Group melt shop production fell by 11pc from the previous quarter to 403,000t, affected by seasonal weakness and tariff uncertainty. Acerinox said European prices declined as imports increased ahead of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism.

High-Performance Alloys and Trade Measures Shape the Outlook

High-performance alloys helped soften the stainless steel downturn. The division benefited from the Haynes acquisition, with melting shop production rising by 6pc to 83,000t and finishing shop output increasing by 12pc to 47,000t.

The high-performance alloys division lifted Ebitda by 15pc to €135mn, despite weaker demand in oil and gas and chemical processing. Aerospace performed strongly, showing the strategic value of Haynes in applications that require nickel alloys, specialty materials, and high-reliability supply chains.

Acerinox earnings in 2026 will depend heavily on demand recovery and trade policy. The company expects gradual improvement and slightly higher first-quarter adjusted Ebitda quarter on quarter. It also expects CBAM and tighter EU safeguards to support European producers once fully implemented, while US Section 232 tariffs continue to benefit domestic production through its NAS facility.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Acerinox shows the split inside advanced metals: stainless steel remains exposed to weak European demand, while aerospace-linked alloys offer resilience. Trade measures may help, but competitiveness will still depend on energy costs, import discipline, and demand recovery.

Global Nickel Surplus to Persist as Indonesia Expands

Nickel

Global Nickel Surplus will persist through the decade as Indonesian supply keeps growing. The outlook points to sustained price pressure and rising LME stocks. As a result, Global Nickel Surplus remains the base case for traders and producers.

Indonesia’s dominance keeps prices capped

Indonesia now anchors world output and extends capacity again. Producers there add HPAL, matte, and MHP lines to push Class 1 units. Meanwhile, NPI still supplies most global nickel, compressing the NPI discount to LME metal. Therefore, Global Nickel Surplus endures even after closures elsewhere. Many non-Indonesian assets stay cash-negative near $15,000/t.

Stocks swell while battery demand underperforms

LME inventories rise as Indonesia and China refine more metal. Chinese net imports and strategic stockpiles also climb. However, EV batteries shift toward LFP and away from high-nickel chemistries. Stainless steel demand holds up at low prices, but not enough to balance the market. Consequently, Global Nickel Surplus widens despite stainless resilience.

Policy risks grow inside Indonesia. Authorities review permits, fine operators, and tighten ore controls. Ore grades trend lower, lifting costs and threatening margins. Even so, installed capacity already exceeds three million tonnes a year. Therefore, any near-term permitting delays may only slow, not stop, supply growth.

Producers pivot, recycle, and hedge

Producers cut ex-Indonesia capacity yet fail to rebalance supply. Western buyers lean on recycling, but Asia’s recycling rates lag. Traders hedge around a firm $15,000/t floor and watch spreads. OEMs diversify alloys and manage exposure to Class 1 premiums.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Watch Indonesia’s permitting cadence and HPAL ramp curves. A genuine bull case needs slower Indonesian growth or a clear swing back to nickel-rich batteries. Until then, expect range-bound prices, elevated inventories, and selective shutdowns outside Indonesia.

Vale Copper Production Rises as Brazilian Mines Offset Canadian Disruptions

Vale, Brazilian Mines

Vale copper production increased in the first quarter as record combined output from the Salobo and Sossego mines strengthened the Brazilian mining group’s base metals performance. The company produced 102,300t of copper in January-March, up 12.5% from a year earlier.

Vale copper production was supported mainly by stronger domestic mine performance. Sossego output rose sharply, while Salobo posted a modest increase, helping offset weaker production from the Sudbury operation in Canada.

Vale copper production growth is important because the company is positioning copper and nickel as core transition metals. Higher output from Brazilian assets improves near-term supply while supporting Vale’s longer-term strategy to expand base metals exposure.

Salobo and Sossego Drive Copper Output Higher

Sossego delivered the strongest copper growth in the quarter. Production rose by 81.3% on the year to 29,000t, supported by strong mill performance and increased ore processing ahead of planned maintenance in the second quarter.

The stronger Sossego result shows how operational timing can influence quarterly copper supply. Vale pushed processing before maintenance, allowing the mine to lift output significantly compared with the previous year.

Salobo remained Vale’s largest copper contributor. Output increased by 1% on the year to 52,800t, giving the group a stable production base in Brazil.

Together, Salobo and Sossego delivered record combined production. This helped Vale absorb weaker performance from Sudbury, where copper output fell by nearly 10% to 20,400t.

Sudbury was affected by unexpected snowstorms and unplanned maintenance at the Clarabelle pit. The maintenance specifically hit copper concentrate production, although Vale said the issue has now been resolved.

The first-quarter result highlights the importance of geographic diversification. Stronger Brazilian output allowed Vale to grow copper production even as weather and maintenance disruptions affected Canadian operations.

Nickel Output Rises Across Canada and Brazil

Vale’s nickel production also increased in the first quarter. Total output rose by 12.3% on the year to 49,300t, supported by stronger production across Canadian and Brazilian assets.

Finished nickel production using Sudbury ore rose by 11.5% to 10,600t. This increase offset the effect of unplanned maintenance at Vale’s third converting reactor.

Voisey Bay delivered a stronger result. Nickel output rose by 61.5% on the year to 10,500t, supporting the group’s Canadian nickel performance.

Thompson moved in the opposite direction. Production fell by 66.7% to 12,000t because of a pipeline blockage worsened by poor weather conditions.

In Brazil, Onca Puma output rose by 64.8% to 8,900t. Vale said the increase was driven by the strongest production to date from the mine’s second furnace.

Nickel production from external feed in Indonesia fell by 2.2% to 18,100t. This included offtake from third parties and material linked to Vale’s local subsidiary, PT Vale Indonesia.

The mixed nickel results show that Vale’s base metals performance depends on several operating systems, including mines, furnaces, converters, external feed and weather-sensitive logistics. Still, the overall increase in nickel output strengthens Vale’s supply position in a market tied to stainless steel, batteries and high-performance alloys.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s first-quarter results show that copper and nickel growth increasingly depends on operational reliability, not only resource size. Stronger Brazilian output gave Vale a buffer against Canadian disruptions, reinforcing the strategic value of diversified base metals production.