BHP Reports Higher Copper Output in July-December, Driven by Strong Escondida Production

BHP

Escondida’s Growth Offsets Declines in Other Operations

BHP, one of the world’s largest mining companies, reported a 10% increase in copper production for July-December 2024, reaching 987,000 tonnes. This growth was primarily driven by higher output from the Escondida mine in Chile, which hit a 10-year high. The strong Escondida performance offset declining production from Pampa Norte, South Australia, and the Antamina mine in Peru.

The company maintained its 2024-25 copper production guidance at 1.85 million-2.05 million tonnes, reinforcing its position as a key player in the global copper market.

Regional Copper Production Performance

Production at Escondida surged 22% year-on-year to 644,000 tonnes, benefiting from higher-grade ore feed and improved recovery rates. Output guidance for 2024-25 remains at 1.18 million-1.3 million tonnes, highlighting continued operational stability.

Conversely, Pampa Norte’s copper production declined by 9% to 126,000 tonnes, mainly due to the temporary care and maintenance of the Cerro Colorado mine. Meanwhile, Spence mine output fell slightly by 1%, but its production guidance remains between 240,000-270,000 tonnes.

In South Australia, copper production dropped by 6% to 145,000 tonnes due to a power outage in October caused by a severe lightning storm. However, operations rebounded, producing 30,000 tonnes in December. Consequently, BHP lowered its South Australian 2024-25 guidance from 310,000-340,000 tonnes to 300,000-325,000 tonnes.

The Antamina mine in Peru saw a 7% drop in production, totaling 67,000 tonnes, due to planned lower throughput and declining ore grades. Despite this, output guidance remains unchanged at 115,000-135,000 tonnes.

Copper Prices and Nickel Market Challenges

BHP’s average realised copper price increased by 9% to $3.99/lb, closely following the London Metal Exchange (LME) price surge of 12% to an average of $9,331/t for July-December.

Meanwhile, nickel prices fell, impacting BHP’s earnings. The company’s average realised nickel price dropped 12% to $16,386/t, aligning with the LME’s 14% drop in class 1 nickel prices to $16,401/t.

Nickel production plummeted 31% to 28,000 tonnes, as BHP suspended operations at its Western Australian nickel division in October. Given the uncertain market conditions, no production guidance has been issued for nickel in 2024-25.

Cost Guidance Updates and Future Outlook

BHP maintained its unit cost guidance at $1.30-$1.60/lb at Escondida and $2-$2.30/lb at Spence. However, due to increased costs in South Australia, the company revised its cost guidance there to the upper half of $1.30-$1.80/lb.

Despite operational challenges in South Australia and Pampa Norte, strong copper prices and Escondida’s production boost have positioned BHP for a resilient 2024-25 fiscal year. With global copper demand rising, the company remains a key player in supplying critical metals for the energy transition.

Nyrstar to Review Australia Zinc and Lead Smelters Amid Market Pressures

Nyrstar

Nyrstar faces operational strain at Hobart and Port Pirie smelters, seeks state support to maintain production viability.

Zinc and Lead Operations Under Pressure

Nyrstar, owned by global commodity trader Trafigura, will review its zinc and lead smelting facilities in Australia. The company cited adverse market conditions and operational challenges in Hobart and Port Pirie as the key reasons. Nyrstar is urging government support to sustain operations in Tasmania and South Australia.

The Hobart zinc smelter, with a 280,000 t/yr capacity, will reduce output by 25% starting April 2024. This comes after the 2024 benchmark zinc treatment charge dropped by 40% to $165/t, a level that may fall further.

Policy Support and Industry Tensions Grow

Meanwhile, the federal Labor government is ramping up support for low-emissions metal processing. It has pledged A$2bn ($1.26bn) in production credits to help aluminium smelters transition to renewable power. Despite this, other smelters like Port Pirie — with a 160,000 t/yr lead capacity — still face uncertainty.

In South Australia, the Whyalla steelworks entered administration last month, prompting A$2.3bn in state and federal backing. As market volatility and energy costs climb, metals producers are increasingly reliant on strategic policy intervention.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nyrstar’s operational review highlights a broader dilemma for the metals industry: navigating falling margins while transitioning to low-emissions output. Government support may offer short-term relief, but sustainable competitiveness will require deeper reforms in energy pricing and market structure.

 

Australia Critical Mineral Reserve Sales Target Strategic Partners Amid Trade Disruptions

Australia Critical Mineral

Australia critical mineral reserve sales emerged as a cornerstone strategy following resources minister Madeline King's announcement of the A$1.2 billion ($770 million) reserve plan targeting strategic partners including the US, EU, Japan, and South Korea. The Australia critical mineral reserve sales initiative aims to generate government revenue while enabling the country to handle trade and market disruptions, particularly in response to recent Chinese export controls on rare earths, tungsten, graphite, germanium, and gallium affecting global supply chains.

Strategic Partnership Framework Addresses Geopolitical Supply Risks

Australia critical mineral reserve sales will focus on offtake agreements with trusted allies while maintaining flexibility for temporary stockpiling based on strategic and commercial considerations. The reserve design responds directly to Chinese mineral and intellectual property export controls that have disrupted global critical materials supply chains. King's announcement emphasized the program's role in managing trade disruptions while strengthening partnerships with democratic nations seeking supply chain diversification.

Meanwhile, the reserve will support domestic mining projects including rare earths and tungsten operations currently producing in Australia. Victory Metals recently produced mixed rare earth carbonates containing 38 grams per tonne of gallium in March, demonstrating domestic production capabilities for restricted materials. The government's approach combines strategic stockpiling with commercial offtake arrangements to maximize both security and revenue objectives.

Advanced Projects Position for Government Offtake Partnerships

However, Australia's critical mineral project pipeline presents substantial opportunities for reserve partnerships with six rare earth and four graphite projects in advanced feasibility stages as of October 2024. These projects await financial close decisions and may benefit significantly from Australian government offtake agreements providing revenue certainty. The Office of the Chief Economist data indicates substantial near-term production potential across multiple critical mineral categories.

Therefore, the joint public-private sector taskforce will design specific guidance around offtake pricing and operational frameworks before the 2026 program launch. This collaborative approach ensures commercial viability while achieving strategic objectives for supply chain resilience. The taskforce structure enables industry input on practical implementation challenges while maintaining government oversight of strategic priorities.

Policy Response Demonstrates Proactive Supply Chain Management

Furthermore, the Labor party's reserve pledge on April 4th directly responded to US President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, demonstrating rapid policy adaptation to changing global trade dynamics. Australia has consistently supported critical mineral developers since 2022 through mineral tax credits, loans, and grants totaling substantial government investment. The reserve represents the latest evolution in comprehensive critical minerals policy development.

As a result, Australia positions itself as a reliable alternative supplier for critical materials essential to clean energy, defense, and technology applications. The revenue-generating model ensures program sustainability while strengthening strategic partnerships with democratic allies. This approach creates competitive advantages for Australian producers while addressing global supply chain vulnerabilities exposed by geopolitical tensions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Australia's critical mineral reserve initiative represents sophisticated strategic thinking that combines commercial revenue generation with geopolitical supply chain management, positioning the country as a trusted alternative to Chinese-dominated critical materials markets. The program's emphasis on partnerships with democratic allies while supporting domestic project development demonstrates how resource-rich nations can leverage mineral endowments for both economic and strategic advantage in an increasingly fragmented global trade environment.

Australia Invests $63 Million in Neoen’s Renewable Energy Projects

Neoen

The Australian government has committed A$100 million ($63.2 million) in funding to French renewable energy producer, Neoen, to support the development of three large-scale renewable energy and battery storage projects in Australia. This investment reflects Australia's ongoing push to expand its renewable energy infrastructure and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

Focus on Battery Storage and Solar Power

The three projects in question include:

1. A 341MW Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) in Western Australia.
2. A 270MW BESS in Queensland.
3. A 440MW peak solar farm in New South Wales.

These projects, which are still under development, aim to enhance Australia's energy security by integrating large-scale storage solutions with renewable energy generation. The Western Australia BESS is particularly significant as it will be an extension of the already operational Collie Battery Energy Storage System, which stores and discharges 219MW of power. Once both parts of the Collie system are fully operational, they will support up to 20% of the state's average energy needs.

Neoen’s New South Wales solar farm, known as the Culcairn Solar Farm, is scheduled to begin generating 800 GWh/year by 2026, covering an area of 1,000 hectares. While a BESS at the site is a possibility, Neoen has yet to make any official announcements regarding that development.

Role of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC)

The Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), a state-owned green investment fund, is providing the funding to Neoen. The CEFC has already been involved in funding a total of 2.3GW worth of battery storage projects across Australia, playing a crucial role in the country's transition to a cleaner, more sustainable energy grid.

Australia’s Renewable Energy Growth

Renewable energy generation has surged across Australia, now accounting for 25% of the country’s total power generation in 2023, up from 17% in 2017. During the same period, the combined share of gas and coal in power generation fell from 81% to 63%. This shift aligns with the government’s broader climate goals, including decarbonizing the energy sector and ensuring energy resilience.

The funding commitment to Neoen comes just a day after the Australian government allocated A$14.1 million to GrainCorp and Ampol to promote the development of sustainable aviation fuels and renewable diesel.

Australia Unveils $4.5 Billion Tax Incentive to Boost Critical Minerals Sector

the Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive (CMPTI)

CMPTI Targets Lithium, Rare Earths, and Other Strategic Metals to Secure Global Supply Chains

Australia has passed a landmark law — the Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive (CMPTI) — aimed at increasing domestic processing of critical minerals essential for the global energy transition. This A$7 billion ($4.5 billion) policy will grant eligible producers a 10% tax offset on processing and refining costs over a 10-year project lifespan, starting from July 2027 to June 2040.

The legislation stands as one of the most significant government-backed resource incentives in Australia's history. It is expected to attract international investment, enhance supply chain security, and cement Australia's role as a global powerhouse in the critical minerals market. Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King described the policy as a “game changer” for the nation’s mining and refining sector.

Critical Minerals in Focus: Lithium, Cobalt, and Rare Earths Lead the Pack

The CMPTI applies to all 31 minerals listed on Australia’s official critical minerals list, which includes high-demand metals such as lithium, cobalt, vanadium, tantalum, gallium, rare earth elements, and tungsten. These metals are essential for producing electric vehicles, solar panels, wind turbines, semiconductors, and advanced defense systems.

Notably, these same minerals are also recognized as critical by strategic global partners, including the United States, European Union, India, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. This alignment underscores the importance of Australia’s role in creating reliable, ethical, and diversified sources of supply.

Hydrogen Production Incentive Complements Clean Energy Push

In tandem with the CMPTI, the legislation also introduces a hydrogen production tax incentive of A$2 per kilogram for renewable hydrogen. This dual-incentive framework positions Australia to lead not just in raw material extraction but in the green energy revolution, promoting cleaner technologies and reducing reliance on carbon-intensive imports.

With the global demand for low-emission technologies surging, Australia’s tax incentive scheme enhances its appeal as a long-term partner in securing clean energy infrastructure.

Australia's Lithium Concentrate Exports Surge in First Half of 2024

Australia's lithium concentrate (spodumene) exports saw a significant increase in the first half of 2024, reaching approximately 1.94 million metric tons. This growth was largely driven by robust demand in the second quarter, particularly from South Korea and Indonesia, as they began to ramp up their imports of Australian lithium supplies.

From April to June, exports surged by 49% year-over-year to 1.26 million tons, contributing to a 9.9% rise in total first-half shipments, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. China remained the dominant importer, accounting for nearly 95% of Australia's lithium concentrate exports, with volumes rising by 4.6% to 1.84 million tons. This surge is closely tied to China's continued growth in new energy vehicle (NEV) sales and production, which remains strong despite global concerns about slowing electric vehicle (EV) growth in other regions such as Europe and the United States.

South Korea's imports of spodumene experienced a dramatic increase, rising to 71,441 tons in the first half of the year from just 1,240 tons a year earlier. This spike follows the completion of the country's first lithium hydroxide plant late last year, which has since started production. The plant, a joint venture between Australian lithium producer Pilbara Minerals and South Korean conglomerate Posco, delivered its first lithium hydroxide order in April.

Indonesia also saw a sharp increase in spodumene imports, reaching 25,098 tons from a mere 60 tons the previous year. This growth coincides with the launch of pilot production at a lithium plant in Indonesia by Chinese lithium salts producer Chengxin Lithium, which extracts lithium from hard rock ores.

Despite these gains, the lithium market faces challenges. While most Australian lithium producers reported higher spodumene output in the second quarter—including companies like Pilbara Minerals, Mineral Resources, and Core Lithium—Core Lithium has paused its processing operations since June due to the weak lithium market conditions.

Australia's lithium concentrate exports (t)

* Source : Australian Bureau of Statistics

Terramin Signs Major EPC Contract with Sinosteel for Tala Hamza Zinc Project

Terramin Australia

Terramin Australia, a South Australia-based mining group, has signed a significant engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contract with Sinosteel, a Chinese state-owned mineral and metallurgical firm. This agreement is for the construction of the Tala Hamza zinc project, located in Algeria, marking a major step toward the development of one of the country’s most promising mining ventures.

Key Details of the Tala Hamza Zinc Project

The £336 million EPC contract includes the construction of a 2 million tonnes per year (2mn t/yr) processing plant and an underground mine. Terramin's executive chair, Bruce Sheng, emphasized that the project would play a pivotal role in boosting the Algerian economy as it progresses. Construction is set to begin in the coming weeks, signaling the start of an ambitious project that could significantly impact the regional mining industry.

The Tala Hamza zinc project is being developed by Western Mediterranean Zinc, a joint venture in which Terramin holds a 49% stake, while the remaining 51% is owned by two state-run Algerian entities, Enof and ORGM.

The Zinc and Lead Resources of Tala Hamza

The Tala Hamza deposit is considered rich in both zinc and lead. According to Terramin, the deposit contains a resource of 53 million tonnes at 5.3% zinc and 1.3% lead, with a cut-off grade of 2.5% zinc-equivalent. A definitive feasibility study completed in 2018 estimated that the mine could produce an average of 129,300 tonnes per year of zinc concentrate and 26,000 tonnes per year of lead concentrate over a 21-year mine life.

As part of the project, the construction of the processing plant and mine infrastructure is expected to create numerous job opportunities in Algeria, further enhancing the project's economic importance.

Implications for the Algerian Mining Sector

The Tala Hamza zinc project has the potential to become one of Algeria's flagship mining projects. Not only will it contribute to the country's zinc production capacity, but it will also bolster Algeria's mining sector, attract foreign investment, and provide long-term economic benefits. With the involvement of Sinosteel, a major player in global metallurgy, the project also signals strong international confidence in Algeria’s mining prospects.

Conclusion

The signing of the EPC contract for the Tala Hamza zinc project represents a significant milestone for Terramin Australia and its partners. The project is expected to help meet the growing global demand for zinc and lead while supporting Algeria's economic growth. As construction begins, the focus will now shift to timely execution and the successful development of a high-quality mining operation in the region.

US Primary Aluminum Imports Decline in 2024

US Aluminum

Imports Drop 6%, Led by Decreases from the UAE, Australia, and South Africa

The United States saw a 6% decline in its primary aluminum imports in 2024, with a total of 3.917 million metric tonnes (mt), down from 4.158 million mt in 2023. The drop was notably driven by significant reductions in imports from key suppliers such as the UAE, Australia, and South Africa, as reported by US customs data.

Declines from Key Suppliers and Growth from Canada

Imports from the UAE, the second-largest supplier of unwrought aluminum to the US, fell by 23% to 435,200 tonnes in 2024. Australia's imports dropped sharply by 127,600 tonnes, falling to 82,400 tonnes. This decline caused Australia to drop from being the third-largest supplier to the sixth position in just one year. Additionally, imports from South Africa fell by 30,000 tonnes, reaching 131,600 tonnes in 2024.

In contrast, imports from Canada, the top supplier, rose by 91,800 tonnes, totaling 2.744 million tonnes in 2024. This increase helped offset some of the losses from other countries. Canada's share of total US aluminum imports grew to 70% in 2024, up from 64% in 2023, solidifying its dominance in the US market.

Tariff Concerns and Emerging Suppliers

The US is facing potential tariff issues, as former President Donald Trump proposed a 10% tariff on all imports from Canada. This could drive up prices for aluminum and aluminum products in the US, given Canada's role in supplying nearly a third of the US's aluminum needs.

On the other hand, imports from newer suppliers saw an uptick. India, now the seventh-largest supplier, sent 21,100 tonnes more aluminum, bringing its total to 73,000 tonnes in 2024. Argentina, a new third-largest supplier, saw a significant increase, sending 16,700 tonnes more to the US, bringing its total to 174,800 tonnes in 2024.

December 2024 imports also reflected these trends. The US imported 306,600 tonnes of unwrought aluminum, down by 14,700 tonnes compared to the previous year. Imports from Canada decreased by 20,300 tonnes, but Argentina helped balance the drop with an increase of 8,300 tonnes, reaching 30,200 tonnes in December.

Australia Backs Lithium-Ion Battery Surge in Western Australia

Canberra, Li battery 

Canberra’s CIS Program Expands Storage by 2.6GWh, Supporting Grid Reliability and Renewable Integration

Federal Government Underwrites Four Major Battery Projects in WA

Australia’s federal government has committed to underwriting four lithium-ion battery projects in Western Australia, adding 2.6GWh of storage capacity by late 2027. The investment comes through the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS), a national program designed to stabilize revenue for renewable and storage developers over a 15-year period.

Although the government has not disclosed exact revenue floor levels for these projects, the financial backing provides long-term security, encouraging private investment in energy infrastructure.

PGS Energy and Neoen Lead Battery Expansion in WA

The largest of the new CIS-backed batteries is a 1.2GWh system in Marradong, developed by PGS Energy. Co-located with a solar farm, it will connect to the South West Interconnected System (SWIS) — the grid serving WA’s most populated regions.

Neoen, a French renewable energy company, will construct a 615MWh battery outside Perth. The company has already established a strong presence in Australia, operating the Collie Battery Energy Storage System since October 2024. That system alone manages 877MWh and is also connected to SWIS.

Two smaller battery systems, totaling 780MWh, will be built in WA’s rural areas. All four projects represent a regional leap forward in clean energy storage capabilities.

National Battery Strategy Accelerates Toward September Megaround

This announcement follows Canberra’s December 2024 decision to underwrite eight other batteries totaling 3.6GWh in three Australian states, excluding WA. The government plans another major round of funding in September 2025, targeting a cumulative 16GWh. So far, over 100 projects with 135GWh in capacity have applied.

Through the CIS, Australia is accelerating its transition toward a renewable-powered grid. Lithium-ion battery storage plays a pivotal role in managing variable solar and wind inputs while enhancing grid resilience.

BHP Moves Forward with Olympic Dam Smelter Expansion in Australia

BHP

Company Begins Application Process for Significant Copper Production Boost

On August 30, Australian mining giant BHP announced the initiation of an application and assessment process for its planned expansion of the Olympic Dam smelter and refinery in South Australia. This expansion aims to enhance copper production capabilities at the site, which currently processes copper concentrate from the Olympic Dam, Prominent Hill, and Carrapateena mines. In the fiscal year ending June 30, the South Australian operations achieved a record cathode production of 215,700 tons.

BHP is set to make a final investment decision on the first phase of the expansion by mid-2027. The company plans to increase its copper output by 4% in the 2025 financial year through higher-grade ores at its Escondida mine in Chile and overall asset productivity improvements. Future growth prospects include significant expansions across Chilean facilities, with investment decisions expected between 2026 and 2029. BHP also targets increasing South Australian copper production to 500,000 tons annually by the early 2030s and 650,000 tons by the mid-2030s.

Pilbara Minerals and Calix Restart WA Lithium Phosphate Project with Government Backing

Pilbara Minerals

Mid-Stream Plant to Strengthen Australia’s Downstream Lithium Supply Chain by Late 2025

Pilbara Minerals and Calix have resumed development of their mid-stream renewable lithium phosphate demonstration plant in Western Australia, following a major funding boost from the state government. The project, paused in October 2024 due to funding constraints, restarted after a A$15 million (US$9.4 million) grant was awarded in December.

Now 75% complete, the facility will produce 3,000 tonnes per year (t/yr) of lithium phosphate, using spodumene feedstock from Pilbara’s Pilgangoora lithium mine. Commissioning is targeted between October and December 2025, with the project serving as a key step in advancing Australia’s mid-stream lithium processing capabilities.

Strategic Incentives Set Stage for Long-Term Lithium Refining Growth

This mid-stream facility will qualify for new tax incentives, offering 10% rebates on processing and refining costs for a ten-year period starting in 2027. These incentives, legislated by Australia’s federal government, aim to increase domestic value-added production in critical minerals.

Additionally, the Western Australian government has granted two-year waivers on administrative and port fees, further lowering the project's financial barriers. These measures reflect coordinated efforts by state and federal authorities to stimulate downstream investment amid fluctuating global lithium prices.

Pilbara Expands Global Processing Footprint Amid Market Volatility

The joint venture aligns with Pilbara Minerals broader strategy to expand its downstream presence. The company already operates a lithium hydroxide plant in Gwangyang, South Korea, in partnership with POSCO, one of the world's largest steel producers.

By partnering with Calix, a leader in low-emission calcination technology, Pilbara aims to produce battery-grade lithium chemicals with lower carbon intensity. The demonstration project will not only support Australia's domestic battery supply chain but could serve as a template for future commercial-scale operations.

Intensifying Battery Competition in Asia Amid Evolving Market Dynamics

EV Battery

The Race for Dominance in the Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery Market

The competition among major battery producers, particularly between China and South Korea, is set to intensify in 2025. South Korean giants like LG Energy Solution (LGES), Samsung SDI, and SK On are aggressively pursuing mass production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, a domain where Chinese manufacturers have traditionally excelled. These South Korean firms are targeting a mass production rollout by the latter half of 2025, aimed primarily at the electric vehicle (EV) market.

Strategic Market Expansion

South Korean battery manufacturers are not just competing on the product level; they are also strategically targeting markets in the US and Europe, regions where their Chinese competitors have been less successful. This move is particularly strategic given the recent failure of Northvolt in Europe, which previously held a significant share of the European battery production capacity. The potential rollback of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits, however, poses a financial threat to these South Korean firms, particularly with the upcoming changes anticipated under the administration of US president-elect Donald Trump.

Challenges and Opportunities in Other Regions

Australia, on the other hand, is focusing on niche areas such as "stationary storage" battery production, despite facing significant challenges in its mining sectors, especially with nickel and lithium. The downturn in these industries has led to major setbacks, such as the closure of the Bald Hill site by Mineral Resources, prompting government intervention.

In Southeast Asia, countries like Indonesia and the Philippines are making notable advances. Indonesia, in collaboration with LGES and Hyundai Motor, has already commenced operations at a new battery production facility, while the Philippines has launched its first LFP battery plant, which began operations in October with the support of Australian investment firm StB Capital Partners.

Severe Weather Disrupts Australian Copper and Fertilizer Logistics

Queensland Rail (QR)

Torrential rains have forced the closure of Australia's Mount Isa rail line, disrupting the transport of critical commodities like copper and phosphate. This rail line, which connects key mining sites to the Port of Townsville in Queensland, is essential for the export of goods, and the lack of a clear timeline for its reopening is creating significant logistical challenges.

Mount Isa Rail Line Severely Damaged by Torrential Rain

Queensland Rail (QR) reported on February 10 that the North Coast and Mount Isa rail lines had sustained significant damage, with 177 defects identified. The rail line is a crucial route for transporting products from mining operations, including Glencore's Mount Isa copper mine and Incitec Pivot's Phosphate Hill fertilizer plant. Without it, these mining companies face major delays in moving their products from production sites to the Port of Townsville for export and distribution across Australia.

Challenges for Incitec Pivot and Other Mining Companies

In addition to weather-related challenges, Incitec Pivot is facing other operational issues. The company recently lowered its production forecast for Phosphate Hill by 7%, expecting to produce between 740,000 and 800,000 tons for the 2025 financial year due to ongoing gas supply problems. This is further complicated by the logistical difficulties caused by the Mount Isa rail line closure. Other companies, including Centrex, also rely on the line to ship phosphate rock, amplifying the broader impact on Australia's mining sector.

Port of Townsville and Abbot Point Impacted by Weather

The Port of Abbot Point, located south of Townsville, also experienced disruptions due to wet weather, closing from January 31 to February 5. Despite large parts of Townsville being flooded, the Port of Townsville remained operational, which helped mitigate some logistical challenges during this period. However, the combined effects of rail and port disruptions continue to strain the local economy and hinder mining and fertilizer exports.

Outlook for Australia’s Mining Industry Amid Infrastructure Setbacks

As the Mount Isa rail line remains closed indefinitely, Australian mining companies, particularly in copper and fertilizer sectors, are facing continued uncertainty. With production forecasts adjusted and logistical bottlenecks in place, it is unclear when normal operations will resume, further impacting Australia's export capacity.

BHP Foresees Copper Surplus in 2024, But Long-Term Deficits Loom

Australian mining giant BHP has projected a moderate surplus in the copper market for the remainder of 2024, driven by softer demand from China and increased supply. However, the company warns that the red metal could experience significant price increases in the medium to long term as supply deficits emerge due to growing demand.

Short-Term Surplus Expectations

BHP, in its 2024 fiscal results, has adjusted its outlook for the copper market, now anticipating a marginal surplus for the calendar year. This shift is attributed to reduced demand expectations from China, coupled with higher copper supply levels. Earlier this year, the copper market experienced a price surge, with the London Metal Exchange's official three-month copper price reaching an all-time high of $10,927.50 per ton in May. This spike was fueled by reduced production from key South American and Panamanian mines, expected smelter cuts in China, a ban on Russian metal deliveries, and speculation of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

However, the market corrected over the past three months, as it became clear that Fed rate cuts were unlikely before September, and China's economic slowdown—particularly in the real estate sector—further dampened demand. BHP now expects this softer Chinese demand to persist through the end of 2024, limiting the potential for significant increases in LME copper prices in the near term.

Long-Term Copper Deficits

Despite the near-term surplus, BHP remains optimistic about copper's long-term prospects. The company anticipates that demand from traditional sectors, combined with emerging needs from industries such as artificial intelligence and the global shift towards decarbonization, will eventually outstrip supply, leading to market deficits. These deficits could result in price surges, which in turn may incentivize the development of higher-cost supply sources in the future.

BHP's Growth and Expansion Plans

In response to the anticipated future demand, BHP plans to increase its copper production by 4% in the 2025 financial year, focusing on mining higher-grade ores at its Escondida mine in Chile and improving productivity across all assets. The company also highlighted several growth opportunities, including four major expansions across existing and new facilities in Chile, with final investment decisions expected between 2026 and 2029.

Additionally, BHP is evaluating the potential to boost its Copper South Australia production from 322,000 tons in fiscal 2024 to 500,000 tons annually by the early 2030s, and further to 650,000 tons annually by the mid-2030s. The company also holds a 45% stake in the Resolution project in the United States, one of the world's largest undeveloped copper projects, which could play a significant role in meeting future copper demand.

Bulk Alloy Shipments to U.S. Surge in Second Quarter

Imports of bulk alloys to the United States surged in the second quarter, driven by weakened demand in China and increasing regulatory pressures domestically. According to the latest data from the U.S. Commerce Department, consolidated bulk alloy shipments—comprising high carbon ferro-chrome, silico-manganese, ferro-silicon, and high carbon ferro-manganese—rose by 47% to 345,970 metric tonnes compared to the same period last year.

The volume of ferro-chrome with over 4% carbon content saw a significant increase, with shipments from South Africa rising fivefold to 100,520 tonnes. However, this figure may be inflated due to the potential inclusion of charge chrome, sources cautioned.

Silico-manganese imports grew across the board, with South Africa leading the way at 25,868 tonnes, followed by Australia with 22,015 tonnes, and Georgia with 17,673 tonnes. In May and June, a federal probe and the possibility of retroactive tariffs sparked a rush in ferro-silicon imports, with shipments from Brazil and Malaysia more than doubling to 14,142 tonnes and 13,658 tonnes, respectively.

Meanwhile, increased shipments of high carbon ferro-manganese from Australia and South Africa partially offset a 52% drop in shipments from Malaysia, which totaled 15,645 tonnes.

South32 Maintains 2024-25 Production Guidance, Excluding Mozal Aluminium

South32

Diversified Miner Reports Stable Output Across Key Assets

South32 has reaffirmed its 2024-25 production guidance for most of its operations, excluding Mozal Aluminium in Mozambique due to transportation disruptions from civil unrest. The Australian-based miner continues to ramp up production across its aluminium, copper, nickel, zinc, and manganese operations despite regional challenges.

Mozal Aluminium Faces Uncertainty Amid Civil Unrest

South32’s Mozal Aluminium smelter produced 90,000 tonnes of aluminium in Q4 2024, marking a 2.3% increase from the previous quarter. However, ongoing violent protests in Mozambique have led to the withdrawal of production guidance. While production and exports remain operational, raw material transportation remains disrupted.

Aluminium and Alumina Production Remains Strong

• Brazil Aluminium (40% South32 ownership): Q4 2024 output increased 13% quarter-over-quarter to 34,000 tonnes. Production guidance remains 130,000 t/yr.
• Hillside Aluminium (South Africa, 100% ownership): Production remained steady at 182,000 tonnes, with guidance unchanged at 720,000 t/yr.
• Brazil Alumina (36% South32 ownership): Q4 2024 production rose 4.2% to 348,000 tonnes, with guidance steady at 1.35 million t/yr.
• Worsley Alumina (Western Australia, 86% ownership): Production surged 18% to 1 million tonnes after maintenance, with 2024-25 guidance at 3.75 million t/yr.

Copper, Zinc, Nickel, and Manganese Performance

• Sierra Gorda Copper Mine (Chile, 45% ownership): Payable copper production rose 10% to 24,300 tonnes due to higher grades and improved molybdenum recovery. Guidance remains 84,800 t/yr.
• Cannington Zinc Mine (Australia, 100% ownership): Zinc output surged 50% to 79,200 tonnes, driven by higher plant throughput and improved silver and lead grades. Guidance holds at 265,400 t/yr.
• Cerro Matoso Nickel Mine (Colombia, 99.9% ownership): Nickel production rose 15% to 9,900 tonnes with improved plant utilization. Guidance remains 35,000 t/yr.
• Gemco Manganese Mine (Australia, 60% ownership): Production resumed after Cyclone Megan, reaching 639,000 tonnes.
• Hotazel Manganese Mine (South Africa, 54.6% ownership): Output declined 19% to 485,000 tonnes due to a temporary shutdown at Wessels mine.

Green Aluminium Incentives and Industry Outlook

The Australian government has pledged A$2 billion in production credits to support aluminium producers transitioning to renewable energy by 2036. The Green Aluminium Production Credit will be available from 2028-29 for up to 10 years, though specific details remain undisclosed.

South32’s production stability, despite regional disruptions, positions it strongly within the evolving global metals market.

Sibanye-Stillwater Sees Mixed PGM Output in 2024: US Down, Africa Up

Sibanye-Stillwater

US Operations Cut Output as Africa and Zimbabwe Deliver Gains

Restructuring and Metal Prices Shape Production Strategy

Sibanye-Stillwater, the South African platinum group metals (PGM) major, reported a slight decline in US PGM output in 2024 but growth in South Africa and Zimbabwe. The company’s US Stillwater and East Boulder mines produced 425,842oz of 2E PGMs for the year, down less than 1% year-on-year. In the last six months of 2024, US production dropped by 15.4% as Sibanye focused on lowering costs amid challenging metal prices.

Cost Management and US Restructuring Drive Changes

The average 2E PGM basket price in the US fell below the all-in sustaining cost, prompting Sibanye to restructure. The company put the Stillwater West mine on care and maintenance, while East Boulder and Stillwater East mines saw reduced output. Despite lower mine volumes, PGM recycling at the Columbus metallurgical complex rose by 2% to 316,470oz for 2024, including a 9.2% increase in the second half.

African and Australian Operations Report Output Increases

In South Africa and Zimbabwe, Sibanye’s 4E PGM production rose by 4.2% in H2 2024 and 4% for the full year, reaching 1.74 million ounces. Key operations are located in the Bushveld Complex, Kroondal, Rustenburg, Marikana, and Mimosa. Beyond PGMs, nickel output at the Sandouville refinery in France climbed 8.1% to 7,705 tonnes, and zinc production at Australia’s Century site increased by 8% to 82,000 tonnes.

Sibanye’s regional flexibility, ongoing cost discipline, and diversified asset base position the company to navigate volatile PGM prices and evolving market conditions.

US Primary Aluminum Imports Decline Slightly in October

US Aluminum

US imports of unwrought aluminum decreased in October 2024 compared to the same period last year, with notable reductions from South Africa and Qatar.

Marginal Decline in October Imports

The United States imported 355,000 metric tonnes of unwrought aluminum under harmonized tariff code 7601 in October 2024, a slight decrease from 362,000 tonnes in October 2023, according to US customs data. This reflects the ongoing adjustments in the global aluminum supply chain.

Major Shifts Among Key Suppliers

• South Africa, the fourth-largest supplier, experienced a significant drop, with shipments halving to 14,000 tonnes from 27,000 tonnes a year earlier.
• Qatar’s aluminum exports to the US plummeted by 11,000 tonnes to a modest 4,000 tonnes.
• In contrast, India saw the largest year-over-year increase, sending 20,000 tonnes, up by 17,000 tonnes.
• Canada, the leading supplier of US aluminum, accounted for approximately 68% of total imports, delivering 241,000 tonnes in October—an increase of 7,000 tonnes from the previous year.

Year-to-Date Trends

From January to October 2024, total US imports of unwrought aluminum reached 3.34 million tonnes, marking a 5.3% decline compared to 3.53 million tonnes during the same period in 2023.

• Australia registered the sharpest contraction, with exports narrowing to 60,000 tonnes, down from 199,000 tonnes.
• UAE shipments also decreased significantly, totaling 382,000 tonnes, down from 479,000 tonnes a year earlier.
• Canada bucked the trend with a year-to-date increase, supplying 2.3 million tonnes, up from 2.2 million tonnes.

Global Market Implications

The shifts in US aluminum imports highlight changing dynamics in global trade and production capacities. Canada’s dominant position reflects its proximity and trade agreements, while reductions from South Africa and Qatar underscore broader supply challenges. India’s surge in exports signals its growing role in meeting US demand, likely supported by competitive pricing and capacity expansions.

Ganfeng Lithium to Launch Production at Mali's Goulamina Lithium Mine

Ganfeng Lithium

China's leading lithium producer, Ganfeng Lithium, is set to initiate production at the Goulamina lithium mine in Mali, marking a significant milestone in the company's global expansion. Ganfeng has completed the first phase of the ore crushing production line, aiming to produce its first batch of lithium concentrate, also known as spodumene, by the end of this year.

Expanding Lithium Output in Two Phases

The Goulamina project will unfold in two phases, with the initial phase beginning construction in 2022. This first phase is projected to yield 506,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate annually. The second phase, though lacking specific construction and launch timelines, is expected to bring the mine’s total production capacity to 1 million tonnes per year.

Ganfeng, which owns 60% of the project in partnership with Australia’s Leo Lithium, has positioned itself as a dominant player in the global lithium market. The company revealed plans in May to acquire Leo Lithium's remaining 40% stake, securing full ownership of the Goulamina project. Once the deal is finalized, Ganfeng will control 100% of the mine, further consolidating its foothold in the lithium market.

Diversification in Africa and Beyond

This project in Mali forms part of a broader trend in China’s strategy to diversify its lithium supply chain. With lithium demand surging due to electric vehicle production, Chinese firms like Ganfeng have accelerated exploration and production efforts across Africa. Companies such as Huayou and Zijin Mining have already begun sending lithium shipments from Zimbabwean mines to China for refining. Ganfeng itself is not limited to Mali, having significant investments in Australia, Argentina, Mexico, Ireland, and China.

As China looks to diversify away from traditional suppliers in Australia and South America, Africa is becoming an increasingly vital resource base for lithium production.

Glencore's 3Q Metals Output: Copper, Zinc, and Cobalt Decline, Ferro-Chrome Surges

Glencore

Global mining giant Glencore reported a mixed performance in its base metals production for the third quarter of 2024. While the company saw a decline in the output of several key metals, its ferro-chrome production experienced a sharp rise.

Base Metals Production Declines

• Copper: Glencore produced 242,600 tonnes of refined copper in Q3 2024, marking a 2% decline compared to the same quarter last year. This brings the total for January-September 2024 to 705,200 tonnes, down 4% year-on-year, though the decrease was somewhat mitigated by the sale of the Cobar mine in Australia in June 2023.

• Cobalt: Cobalt production also saw a 2% decline in Q3, totaling 10,600 tonnes. For January-September 2024, the total cobalt output fell by 18% to 26,500 tonnes, primarily due to reduced run rates at the Mutanda mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which adjusted operations in response to the challenging cobalt pricing environment.

• Zinc: Zinc output decreased by 5% to 226,400 tonnes in Q3, and by 4% for the January-September period. Contributing to the decline was lower output from the Antamina mine in Peru, caused by mining sequences with lower zinc grades and higher copper grades, as well as operational disruptions due to a tropical cyclone at the McArthur River operation in Australia.

• Nickel: Glencore's nickel production also saw a significant decrease of 18% to 18,100 tonnes in Q3. This was primarily driven by the transition of the Koniambo operation in New Caledonia into care and maintenance starting in February 2024. Despite a slight increase in output from the Murrin Murrin mine in Australia, total nickel production for January-September 2024 fell 9% year-on-year to 62,300 tonnes.

Ferro-Chrome Production Surge

In a positive development, Glencore's ferro-chrome production surged by 89% in Q3 2024, reaching 295,000 tonnes. This helped bring the total for January-September to 894,000 tonnes, up 2% compared to the same period in 2023. This increase is especially notable after a 16% decline in ferro-chrome production during the first half of 2024, attributed to the continued idling of the Rustenburg smelter. Glencore did not specify whether the surge in Q3 ferro-chrome production was due to the restart of the Rustenburg smelter, but the company indicated that higher production rates and fewer offline days at its other smelter complexes in South Africa may have contributed to the positive results.