SUPER METAL PRICE Launches 'The Metals Grade Atlas' eBook: A Definitive Handbook for the Specialty Metals Industry

eBook: 'The Metals Grade Atlas'

An 815-page authoritative guide to titanium, nickel, and iron alloys sets a new global standard in advanced materials selection.

SUPER METAL PRICE, a global intelligence platform specializing in metals markets, has officially released The Metals Grade Atlas, a comprehensive digital reference for high-performance specialty metals used in modern industries.

A Complete Guidebook for Extreme Industrial Conditions in the 21st Century

This 815-page volume presents a systematic overview of materials engineered to withstand extreme environments, including aerospace, power generation, chemical processing, medical devices, and offshore platforms.

The Metals Grade Atlas provides essential data for materials capable of enduring ultra-high temperatures, corrosion, and mechanical stress—such as jet turbine blades operating above 1000°C, or gas turbines in power plants that function under thermal extremes exceeding 1200°C.

Covering the Full Spectrum of Titanium, Nickel, and Iron Alloys

The publication categorizes cutting-edge alloys into three key material families:

◎ Titanium Alloys – Lightweight and corrosion-resistant innovations

• Core material in aerospace applications for airframes, engine components, and landing gear
• Exceptional strength-to-weight ratio enhances fuel efficiency and payload
• Proven durability in chloride- and H₂S-rich offshore environments
• High biocompatibility and long-term stability for medical implants

◎ Nickel-based Superalloys – Designed to conquer extreme temperatures

• Resilient beyond 1200°C with excellent thermal and mechanical stability
• Ideal for turbine blades, combustors, and disks in power generation systems
• High resistance to creep, oxidation, and thermal cycling in jet engine hot zones
• Key material in high-temperature petrochemical reactors and heat exchangers

◎ Special Iron Alloys – The structural backbone of industrial infrastructure

• High-strength steels for shipbuilding, construction, automotive, and renewable energy
• Covers a wide range from ultra-high-strength to abrasion-resistant grades
• Enhanced fatigue performance and weldability in marine applications
• Delivers both weight reduction and crash safety in automotive structures
• Specialized grades for wind turbine towers and heavy-duty bearings

A Practical Data Library for Industry Professionals

Each alloy in The Metals Grade Atlas includes:

• Chemical composition and mechanical properties
• Corrosion resistance and high-temperature performance
• Fatigue strength and weldability indexes
• Real-world application examples and selection criteria
• Cost-performance considerations to support design decisions

Supporting Engineering Decision-Making

Going beyond material specifications, the book offers a structured framework for material selection in actual engineering practice. It assists professionals in benchmarking, processability assessment, and cost-performance analysis to guide optimal alloy choices.

A Strategic Companion for Industrial Innovation

SUPER METAL PRICE stated, "We sincerely hope this publication becomes a trusted and indispensable reference for design engineers, material scientists, and quality professionals striving to make precise, performance-driven, and economically sound material decisions."

The company further emphasized, "This book aims to serve as a compass for understanding, developing, and applying advanced metals in the pursuit of next-generation industrial innovation."

Global Market Insights and Future Outlook

With net-zero targets and energy transitions accelerating worldwide, demand for high-performance specialty metals is rising sharply. Policies such as the EU’s CBAM and the U.S. IRA have further highlighted the strategic value of specialty alloys. Industry experts have praised The Metals Grade Atlas as a long-awaited professional handbook that offers both comprehensive coverage and practical utility in the field.

Publication Details

• Title: The Metals Grade Atlas (eBook)
• Publisher: SUPER METAL PRICE
• Release Date: June 1, 2025
• Language: English
• File Size: 12.9MB
• Length: 815 pages

Available at: www.supermetalprice.com

About SUPER METAL PRICE

SUPER METAL PRICE is a global intelligence platform delivering in-depth analysis and real-time news on the metal markets. Its coverage spans steel, non-ferrous metals, rare earths, and energy-transition materials, with expert insights into pricing trends, tariffs, trade policies, and technical innovations across major regions including the U.S., Europe, China, and India.

Following The Metals Grade Atlas, the company plans to expand its specialty metals portfolio with future publications, including a Rare Earth Handbook and a Recycling Technology Guide.

Contact

Website: www.supermetalprice.com

eBook Purchase: Visit the digital download page

This press release is based on publicly available information from SUPER METAL PRICE.

JPMorgan Cuts Base Metal Price Forecasts Amid Recession Fears

JPMorgan Metal Price Report Image

Focus Keyphrase: Base Metal Price Forecasts

JPMorgan has sharply lowered its base metal price forecasts, citing rising recession risks tied to Donald Trump's trade policies. The bank now anticipates up to a 20% drop in average prices through 2026 due to tariff-driven reductions in global demand growth, particularly for copper and aluminium.

Forecasts for copper and aluminium demand fell by 1%, flipping projected deficits into surpluses of 170,000t and 200,000t, respectively. Nickel and zinc markets are also now expected to post significant surpluses of 250,000t and 130,000t in 2025.

Copper and Aluminium Markets See Major Revisions

Copper is now forecast to average $8,300/t in Q1, down from $9,400/t, and $9,000/t in Q4, down from $10,400/t. Aluminium prices are similarly revised to $2,200/t in Q1, with only modest gains expected later in the year.

Despite stimulus measures stabilizing China’s demand outlook, JPMorgan expects global oversupply. Lower economic activity, particularly in developed economies, will weigh on construction and industrial consumption.

Nickel and Zinc Also Face Downward Pressure

Nickel and zinc price forecasts were cut by 12% for the rest of 2025. For 2026, copper prices are now expected to average $9,375/t (down 15%) and aluminium at $2,463/t (down 14%). Nickel and zinc follow suit with price declines of 10% and 8%, respectively.

JPMorgan emphasized that downside risks dominate the outlook, as further trade war escalation could trigger deeper recessions. This may push prices below cost curves and pressure marginal producers globally.

The Metalnomist Commentary

JPMorgan’s revised forecasts reflect growing uncertainty in global industrial demand. As trade tensions escalate, metals markets could remain under pressure unless macroeconomic momentum improves.

Super Metal Price Unveils New Service for Specialty Metals and Alloys Pricing

Super Metal Price: Price Report

Super Metal Price (SMP), a leading metal industry resource, has officially launched a comprehensive service providing detailed pricing information for specialty metals and alloys. This new service will become a crucial tool for stakeholders across various sectors, including manufacturing and research.

Super Metal Price (SMP)

Comprehensive Pricing Insights on Specialty Metals

SMP's newly launched platform offers extensive pricing data not only for raw materials but also for a range of specialty metals and alloys such as stainless alloys, nickel, cobalt, and titanium. This service caters to the needs of industry professionals by providing up-to-date financial information crucial for market analysis, procurement, and strategic planning.

SMP Chemical Composition

Valuable Resources for the Metals Community

In addition to pricing information, SMP provides valuable data on the chemical composition of materials, which is essential for understanding the properties and applications of different metals. This feature is particularly useful for research institutions, academics, and companies involved in metal-related industries. Furthermore, SMP enriches its offerings with insightful metal-related articles and price reports, making it a comprehensive resource for anyone involved in the metals sector.

The service aims to support better decision-making by delivering accurate and in-depth information that can impact production, investment, and research activities.

Site.

https://supermetalprice.com/

European Bi, In Price Rallies Stall on Profit-Taking

The surge in European bismuth and indium prices has decelerated as sellers capitalize on the substantial gains made in the second quarter, prompting slight declines in the past two weeks. Initially, speculation and constrained feedstock availability in China drove a sharp rise in prices, leading European sellers to elevate their offers in line with increasing replacement costs.

Bismuth prices in Europe saw a remarkable 77% increase from April to June but experienced a modest dip in early July due to profit-taking activities. Traders, seeking to benefit from the recent price rally, sold long-held low-cost materials at discounted rates compared to the higher-cost replacement materials sourced from China.

Similarly, indium prices, which reached a nine-year peak of $373-413/kg in June, have slightly receded to $373-401/kg. This adjustment followed a downturn in the Chinese domestic market, prompting European sellers to lower their offers and secure profits from the 35% price rise seen in the second quarter.

Despite tepid demand from European consumers, both metals experienced rapid price hikes in the second quarter, driven by elevated replacement costs from China. Chinese export prices for bismuth surged by 63% from April to June, remaining stable at $6.14-6.26/lb fob. Environmental inspections in China, which restricted the supply of bismuth concentrates from lead and zinc refineries, and speculative trading further exacerbated this price rise.

Indium supply constraints from China's Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi provinces due to environmental checks, coupled with trading activities on the Zhonglianjin platform, propelled prices upward. Although Chinese export prices for indium peaked at $371-391/kg fob in mid-May, they declined to $359-374/kg through June as trading activity slowed.

Speculation Fuels Minor Metal Price Increases

The swift price increases for bismuth and indium have spurred speculation about potential hikes in other minor metals such as selenium, tellurium, and germanium, whose prices are already trending upward.

Selenium prices in Europe were assessed at $10.40-13.10/lb duty unpaid Rotterdam, up from $10.30-12.40/lb at the end of June, marking a 7% rise in the second quarter driven by higher replacement costs from China and consistent demand.

Tellurium prices rose by 13% in June, last assessed at $91-99/kg duty unpaid Rotterdam, reflecting tight supply in European warehouses and rising prices in China.

Germanium metal prices hit a nine-year high of $1,810-2,010/kg cif main airport on July 2, up from $1,620-1,920/kg at the start of June, following an increase in Chinese export prices. The average germanium price in the first half of this year was $1,607/kg, significantly higher than the 10-year average of $1,324/kg, due to export controls limiting supply outside China.

Spot demand for most minor metals in Europe remains sluggish and is expected to stay low over the summer. However, market participants are closely monitoring China for indications of which minor metals might experience the next price spike, given Europe's heavy reliance on Chinese exports for many of these metals.

Copper Price Outlook Strengthens as Strategic Demand Supports $15,000/t Scenario

Traxys

Copper price outlook is shifting into a new regime as traders and miners argue that the metal can reach $15,000/t within the next two to three years. Traxys Group chief executive Mark Kristoff said benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange could plausibly touch that level over the next 24-36 months.

Copper price outlook is no longer being shaped only by traditional construction cycles, manufacturing indicators and visible inventories. Speakers at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne said strategic demand, state stockpiling, sulphuric acid risk and artificial intelligence infrastructure are now carrying greater influence.

Copper price outlook has strengthened even though global visible inventories remain high on paper at around 1.9mn-2mn t. Market participants said this reflects a breakdown in the old relationship between warehouse stocks and price, as governments and industrial buyers increasingly treat copper as a policy metal.

The price rally above $13,000/t has aligned with forecasts from major trading houses such as Mercuria. But the more important point is structural: copper is now being priced as a strategic asset tied to electrification, grids, data centres, defence and national industrial policy.

Data Centres and Stockpiling Add a Strategic Premium

Copper’s identity is changing from “Dr Copper” to a policy metal. The old model treated copper as a broad indicator of construction, manufacturing and economic activity. That model is now too narrow.

Data centres and artificial intelligence are becoming major new demand drivers. The next decade could create 2mn-3mn t of additional copper demand from data centres alone. Associated grid reinforcement and power connections could require another 7mn-8mn t.

This demand is not optional. AI infrastructure needs power, cooling, cabling, transformers, substations and grid expansion. Copper sits at the centre of that buildout.

State stockpiling is also changing market behaviour. China’s inventory building and the US strategic push for copper supply are creating demand that does not move like normal industrial consumption.

This helps explain why copper prices remain near historic highs despite weakness in China’s property sector. Around a quarter of China’s copper demand was historically linked to housing, but newer demand channels are offsetting part of that drag.

Electrification, military demand, AI infrastructure and strategic reserves are now becoming more important to price formation. These forces make copper less cyclical than before and more exposed to policy decisions.

The US is also treating copper as a strategic material. Washington is trying to secure domestic and allied supply chains, especially as grid investment, manufacturing reshoring and defence priorities increase copper’s policy value.

Offtake structures are becoming more important in this environment. Copper is increasingly being tied to specific industrial strategies, not just traded as a floating global commodity.

That shift changes where value sits. Traders, miners and governments are no longer competing only for price advantage. They are competing for logistics, location, financing, offtake and control over final destination.

Sulphuric Acid Risk Exposes the Supply Side

The supply side remains the bigger constraint. Major mining groups continue to face falling ore grades, higher capital costs, long permitting timelines and more complex operating conditions.

Average copper grades have declined enough that some producers are processing ore closer to 0.5% copper. That means miners must move, crush and treat much more rock for each tonne of copper produced.

This raises costs and lengthens development timelines. It also makes new supply less responsive to price rallies. Even copper above $13,000/t does not quickly create new mines.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid have become hidden constraints in the copper market. They are especially important for solvent extraction-electrowinning operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile.

SX-EW production accounts for around 17% of global copper supply. Prolonged sulphuric acid disruption could curtail around 125,000t of DRC output and put around 200,000t of Chilean output at risk in the second half of the year.

This risk matters because the DRC has been one of the most important sources of copper supply growth. Its high grades, flexible project scale and faster development potential make it central to global supply expectations.

However, much of the DRC’s leached copper depends on acid availability. If sulphur or sulphuric acid supply tightens, production costs can rise sharply and some output can become vulnerable.

The risk also hits at a sensitive point in the cycle. The market may show a projected surplus on paper, but that surplus can narrow quickly if input disruptions affect key growth regions.

This is why copper’s current pricing cannot be read only through visible stocks. Inventories may look comfortable, but operational supply chains are more fragile than the headline numbers suggest.

For copper buyers, the lesson is clear. Secure supply now depends on more than exchange access. It depends on geography, processing route, reagents, energy, logistics and policy exposure.

For miners, the opportunity is equally clear. Assets with high grades, reliable acid supply, integrated infrastructure and faster expansion potential will command a strategic premium.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The $15,000/t copper scenario is not only a price forecast; it reflects a new industrial reality. Copper is becoming a strategic bottleneck for AI, grids and electrification, while acid and permitting risks limit how quickly supply can respond.

China's Praseodymium-Neodymium Prices Rise Amid Tight Supply and Strong Demand

China’s Praseodymium-Neodymium market has seen significant price increases over the past two weeks, fueled by a combination of tight spot oxide availability and robust demand from the magnet industry. Market analysts expect this trend to persist through the end of the month, with intensified restocking activities by metal and magnet producers further supporting prices.

Oxide separation plants and trading houses have raised their offers due to firm production costs for ore feedstock and consistent purchases from metal producers, who have also seen rising transaction prices. The uptrend in oxide prices, coupled with narrow profit margins for mining firms outside China, has contributed to higher prices in the ore feedstock market. Many ore suppliers have either withdrawn their sales or increased their offers recently, reflecting the prevailing market conditions.

Trading firms, eager to capitalize on the price gains after months of market fluctuations, have been more active in restocking. Large-scale magnet manufacturing plants have continued their regular purchases of praseodymium-neodymium metal, gradually accepting higher prices in line with the rising cost of oxide feedstock. Even medium and small magnet producers, despite their smaller purchase volumes, have made purchases at the higher prices, reinforcing the overall price uptrend in the metal feedstock market.

Expectations of increased magnet demand following the summer lull have further strengthened market predictions of continued price rises. As a result, many oxide and metal producers are holding firm on prices, anticipating higher offers in the near future.

The release of Northern Rare Earth’s (NRE) listed prices for September delivery of praseodymium-neodymium next week is also anticipated to reflect these recent price gains. The slowdown in the growth of light rare earth production quotas and reduced ore feedstock imports from the U.S. and Southeast Asia are additional factors contributing to the tightening of spot supplies, which may lead to further price increases in the coming months.

However, some market participants remain cautious, focusing on the fundamentals of physical demand and the operating rates of downstream magnet producers before making further predictions about price movements.

China’s Antimony Metal Output Edges Up in 2024 Amid Tight Concentrate Supply

Aantimony

China's Antimony Production Faces Challenges Due to Limited Resources and Export Controls

China's Antimony Metal Production in 2024 Shows Modest Growth

China's antimony metal output saw a slight increase in 2024, with production reaching 66,534 tons, a modest 0.5% rise from the previous year. Despite this increase, the output remained relatively stable since 2021. The tight supply of antimony concentrate over the past few years has played a significant role in limiting production growth. According to data from the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association, the slight rise in antimony metal output reflects a delicate balance of supply and demand, influenced by both domestic resource depletion and restrictions on concentrate imports.

Decreased Antimony Trioxide Production and Weaker Demand

In contrast to the increase in antimony metal production, China's production of antimony trioxide, a compound used primarily in flame retardants, decreased by 4.8% in 2024. The total production of antimony trioxide fell to 91,700 tons. Weaker demand from the flame retardant industry has been a primary factor in this decline, illustrating the ongoing challenges faced by the antimony sector. These developments suggest that while antimony metal output remains stable, the market for certain antimony products is facing a contraction.

Export Controls and Global Price Surge: Anticipated Decline in 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, China's antimony production is expected to remain mostly steady or potentially decline. This forecast is influenced by several factors, including low operation rates maintained by producers in recent years, diminishing domestic resources, and tight import restrictions on antimony concentrate. The situation has been exacerbated by export controls imposed on antimony since September 2024, which have limited the availability of the metal outside of China. Consequently, global antimony prices have surged to double the price of China's domestic antimony, narrowing the price gap. This price disparity may further restrict the availability of concentrate for Chinese smelters and reduce production as concentrate from countries like Myanmar and Tajikistan is increasingly diverted to international markets where prices are significantly higher.

Lynas Rare Earth Revenue Nears Four-Year High as NdPr Output Rises

Lynas Rare Earth

Lynas rare earth revenue reached its highest quarterly level in nearly four years in January-March, supported by stronger rare earth oxide production, higher sales volumes and firmer year-on-year pricing. The Australian producer reported total sales revenue of A$265mn, more than double a year earlier and almost one-third higher than the previous quarter.

Lynas rare earth revenue was underpinned by continued ramp-up across the company’s facilities. The result marks its strongest quarterly sales performance since April-June 2022, showing that operational recovery and strategic offtake demand are beginning to translate into stronger commercial performance.

Lynas produced 3,233t of rare earth oxide during the quarter, up 69% from a year earlier and 36% from the previous quarter. Neodymium-praseodymium oxide output rose to 1,996t, up 32% on the year and 42% on the quarter.

The company also produced its first batch of samarium oxide in March, ahead of its original April target. This matters because samarium supports specialised magnet, defence and high-temperature applications, giving Lynas another product line beyond core NdPr supply.

NdPr Volumes and Price Floors Strengthen Revenue Visibility

Lynas’ sales volumes rose to 3,131t in January-March, up 29% from a year earlier and 33% from the previous quarter. Its average selling price was broadly steady quarter on quarter, but increased by 68% on the year to A$84.60/kg.

The stronger pricing environment supported Lynas rare earth revenue at a time when buyers are increasingly focused on non-China supply. NdPr remains the core feedstock for rare earth permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, industrial motors and defence systems.

The company also secured several major offtake agreements during the quarter. On 16 March, Lynas signed a binding letter of intent with the US Department of Defence covering a $96mn light and heavy rare earth oxide supply deal over more than four years.

That agreement includes a price floor of $110/kg for NdPr. Price floors are strategically important because they protect non-China suppliers from price downturns that could otherwise undermine project economics.

Lynas also expanded its rare earth supply agreement with Japan Australia Rare Earths on 10 March. Under the deal, Jare will buy at least 5,000 t/yr of NdPr oxide at a price floor of $110/kg and 50% of Lynas’ heavy rare earth output until 2038.

Lynas will supply Japanese producers with up to 7,200 t/yr of NdPr oxide and 75% of its heavy rare earth oxide output over the agreement period. This gives Japan a stronger long-term supply channel while giving Lynas more predictable demand.

Heavy Rare Earths and Metal Production Define the Next Growth Phase

Lynas’ stronger quarter comes as western governments and industrial buyers try to build rare earth supply chains outside China. The company already has a strategic position because it combines upstream mining with rare earth processing capability.

The next growth phase will depend on heavy rare earths and downstream metal production. Heavy rare earths such as dysprosium, terbium and samarium are critical for high-performance magnets operating under heat, stress and demanding industrial conditions.

The expanded Japanese agreement gives Lynas a commercial route for future heavy rare earth output. This could strengthen supply security for automotive, electronics, robotics and clean-energy manufacturers seeking alternatives to China-dominated rare earth flows.

Lynas is also exploring rare earth metal production outside China, including a potential project in Vietnam with South Korea’s LS Eco Energy. This step is strategically important because rare earth oxides alone do not complete the magnet supply chain.

Oxides must be converted into metals and alloys before magnet makers can produce finished permanent magnets. Building metal-making capability outside China would move Lynas further downstream and improve its role in the ex-China magnet ecosystem.

The company’s quarterly performance therefore reflects more than a revenue rebound. It shows a shift toward long-term offtake, price protection, heavy rare earth supply and downstream integration.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lynas rare earth revenue shows that non-China rare earth suppliers are gaining stronger commercial support from governments and strategic buyers. The key test now is whether Lynas can convert higher oxide output into deeper metal and magnet supply-chain capability outside China.

Copper Aluminium Pricing Divergence Deepens as Middle East Shock Turns Metal-Specific

Sucden Financial

Copper aluminium pricing divergence is becoming clearer as base metal markets absorb the first shock of the Middle East conflict. Copper is shifting back toward physical flows, inventories and policy risk, while aluminium remains supported by direct disruption to Middle East supply chains.

Copper aluminium pricing divergence reflects a broader change in market behaviour. Traders are moving away from headline-led volatility and focusing more on spreads, premiums, inventories and real supply constraints.

Copper aluminium pricing divergence also shows that the base metals complex is no longer trading as one geopolitical basket. Each metal is now being priced according to its own exposure to the war, its physical balance and its ability to replace disrupted supply.

UK broker Sucden Financial said the conflict initially drove broad volatility across commodities. But that phase is fading, leaving copper and aluminium on different pricing paths.

Copper Moves From Macro Risk to Physical and Policy Pricing

Copper began the year as a macro-driven metal. Prices moved with broader risk sentiment, oil, gold and cross-asset positioning.

That relationship is now weakening. Copper is increasingly being priced through its own market signals, including Shanghai inventory drawdowns, US flow incentives, mined supply quality and sulphuric acid-related supply-chain disruption.

This shift matters because copper is no longer responding only to global growth fears or geopolitical headlines. It is being priced through physical availability and policy exposure.

The Comex premium has periodically reopened the arbitrage for copper units to move into the US. This has made the interaction between LME, Comex, inventories and US policy more important to price discovery.

Sucden said the next phase of copper pricing could be shaped by material-security concerns. These include tariff threats, incentives to hold more metal in the US and the strategic value of copper in energy infrastructure.

This is a macro-to-micro rotation. Copper is moving away from broad geopolitical trading and toward a market driven by premiums, spreads, stock locations and supply-chain constraints.

Sulphuric acid remains a key hidden risk. Copper supply from leaching operations, particularly in regions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile, can be affected if acid availability tightens or costs rise.

The market still remains exposed to recession fears. A deeper economic slowdown caused by the conflict could weigh on copper demand and financial positioning.

However, copper’s resilience suggests that traders are giving greater weight to structural tightness. Supply challenges, low-quality mined material and long-term demand from grids, electrification and industrial policy continue to support the metal.

Sucden argued that copper’s long-term direction remains higher and that price dips should be bought. The structural case has not changed, while eventual dollar weakness after a conflict resolution could provide further support.

Aluminium Holds a Firmer Physical Floor After Supply Shock

Aluminium has already repriced much of the Middle East disruption. The metal briefly moved toward the upper end of its recent range as the conflict escalated, but repeated failures above $3,650/t suggest the market needs further supply deterioration to justify another major move higher.

This does not mean aluminium is weak. It means the initial panic premium has already been absorbed.

Aluminium’s support is more physical than copper’s. The disruption affects smelting, feedstock flows and export availability from the Middle East, making the supply shock more direct than headline numbers may suggest.

Sucden said aluminium remains the base metal with the clearest exposure to the Middle East war. Ex-China supply is tighter, London Metal Exchange inventories are falling and nearby spreads have moved into backwardation.

Chinese inventories have risen, but that does not fully offset the tightness outside China. Regional availability matters more when logistics, origin and delivery routes are disrupted.

Aluminium smelters also cannot restart quickly. Once production is curtailed, bringing capacity back requires time, stable power and commercial confidence.

Elevated energy prices add another layer of cost support. Even if the war de-escalates, smelters and downstream producers may still face a higher operating cost base.

Sucden said de-escalation could initially push aluminium prices toward $3,400/t. But any decline may prove short-lived if physical tightness remains.

This gives aluminium limited immediate upside but also limited downside. The market has already priced much of the shock, yet replacement supply is not easy to find.

The broader implication is that aluminium is trading a tighter physical balance, not only a war premium. That makes its price floor firmer than a market driven purely by sentiment.

For industrial buyers, the copper-aluminium split is important. Copper procurement risk is increasingly tied to policy, US flows and strategic inventory. Aluminium risk is tied more directly to missing tonnes, energy costs and disrupted regional supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Middle East conflict is exposing the real structure of each base metal market. Copper is becoming a policy-and-premium metal, while aluminium is being supported by a more immediate physical supply shock.

China Antimony Market Stabilises as Chenzhou Mining Output Halts Tighten Supply Risk

Antimony

China antimony market conditions have stabilised after prices fell from late March, as production suspensions by major producer Chenzhou Mining raised expectations of tighter domestic supply. The market is now balancing potential output losses against weak downstream demand.

The China antimony market had been under pressure from soft buying in flame retardants and solar glass. But safety-related production halts at Chenzhou Mining subsidiaries have limited further downside and encouraged sellers to watch market developments more closely.

The China antimony market remains fragile because the supply shock is occurring in a demand environment that is still weak. Prices may hold steady in the near term, but a strong rebound looks difficult unless downstream consumption improves.

Chenzhou Mining subsidiaries Xinlong Mining and Zhazixi Mining suspended production and began safety inspections after fatal accidents at two sites. Xinlong Mining has 5,000 t/yr of antimony concentrate capacity, while Zhazixi Mining has 6,000 t/yr of antimony metal capacity.

Output Suspensions Create Short-Term Supply Support

The restart timeline for the suspended operations remains unclear. Some market participants expect the stoppages to last at least one month, potentially cutting overall domestic supply by around 15%.

That scale is important for antimony because China remains a central producer and processor of the metal. Any disruption at a major domestic producer can quickly affect market sentiment, especially when inventories are not evenly distributed across producers and traders.

Antimony metal prices have stabilised at 158,000-162,000 yuan/t ex-works after falling by 9,000 yuan/t since 31 March. Sellers are now less willing to cut offers aggressively while they wait to see how long the production suspensions last.

The supply issue also matters beyond China. Antimony is used in flame retardants, lead alloys, ammunition, cables, batteries, solar glass and other industrial applications. It has become more strategically sensitive as governments reassess critical mineral supply chains.

However, production halts alone do not guarantee a price rally. The market needs stronger buying interest to convert supply risk into sustained upward price movement.

Weak Demand Limits Price Recovery

Demand from flame retardant and solar glass sectors remains soft. This continues to offset the impact of lower production and keeps buyers cautious.

A Hunan-based producer said domestic demand is weak and that some producers still hold hundreds of tonnes of metal stocks. This suggests that inventories are still available, even if fresh supply becomes tighter.

Most antimony metal and trioxide producers appear to be facing similar conditions. Buyers are not rushing to restock because downstream consumption has not improved enough to justify aggressive procurement.

This creates a holding pattern. Sellers have a reason to resist further price cuts because supply may tighten. Buyers have a reason to wait because demand remains weak and existing stocks are still available.

For the antimony value chain, the next price signal will come from the duration of Chenzhou Mining’s suspensions. A short halt may only stabilise the market. A longer shutdown could gradually reduce available supply and strengthen sellers’ position.

Still, demand recovery remains the decisive factor. Without stronger orders from flame retardants, solar glass or other industrial users, the China antimony market is likely to remain stable rather than sharply higher.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The antimony market is showing how supply shocks behave differently when demand is weak. Chenzhou Mining’s output halts have created a floor, but the market needs real downstream restocking before supply risk becomes a stronger price driver.

Global Cobalt Supply Expected to Rise in 2025, Driven by Increased Production in Indonesia and China

Global cobalt supply is poised for significant growth in 2025, according to Fan Ruize, senior analyst at Antaike, a leading Chinese state-owned information provider. The expansion in production, fueled by rising output in Indonesia and China, is set to meet the increasing demand for cobalt in various high-tech industries, including electric vehicles (EVs), power batteries, and robotics.

Increased Global Cobalt Feedstock and Refined Production

At the 2024 Nickel and Cobalt Industry Annual Conference in Nanchang, China, Fan Ruize projected that global cobalt feedstock production would reach 290,000 tons of metal equivalent in 2025, up from 272,000 tons in 2024. A significant portion of this increase is expected to come from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which will continue to be the world's largest producer, contributing 203,000 tons. Indonesia will also play a crucial role, contributing an additional 32,000 tons of cobalt feedstock.

Refined cobalt production is projected to rise to 240,000 tons of metal equivalent in 2025, marking a 4.8% increase from the previous year. This rise in refined cobalt production is primarily driven by increases in output from China and Indonesia, with China's contribution set to reach 195,000 tons in 2025, up from 179,000 tons in 2024. China's rapid expansion in refined cobalt capacity—anticipated to hit 75,000 tons by 2025—indicates the country's growing role as a key player in the global cobalt market.

Surplus Supply and Price Outlook

With refined cobalt consumption expected to reach 215,000 tons in 2025, up 3.4% from 2024, the cobalt market is likely to experience a continued supply surplus. Fan Ruize forecast that this oversupply will put downward pressure on cobalt metal prices in the near future. While China's refined cobalt consumption will continue to rise—projected to reach 130,000 tons in 2025—the increase in supply from Indonesia and China is expected to result in price fluctuations at lower levels.

Fan also noted that the increasing output of cobalt metal would diminish the price premium for cobalt over cobalt sulfate, further contributing to the price decline. Despite this, the continued demand for cobalt in sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to drive long-term consumption.

Market Drivers: Cobalt in High-Tech Industries

The growing demand for cobalt in the power battery, alloy, and electric vehicle industries is a key driver behind the rise in cobalt consumption. Additionally, the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence, robotics, and unmanned aerial vehicles will further contribute to the demand for this essential metal. As the global economy transitions to more sustainable technologies, cobalt’s role in powering innovation will continue to expand, supporting the metal's long-term market growth.

Conclusion

The cobalt market is set to see substantial changes in the coming years, with a sharp increase in supply expected in 2025, particularly from Indonesia and China. Despite potential price fluctuations caused by oversupply, the long-term demand for cobalt in high-tech applications, including EVs, AI, and power batteries, will ensure that cobalt remains a critical resource for the global economy.

Yunnan Germanium Recycling Project Targets Feedstock Security for Strategic Metal Supply

Germanium Scrap

Yunnan Germanium recycling project plans will strengthen China’s largest germanium producer’s control over feedstock as demand from downstream high-end manufacturing remains strategically important. The company plans to invest 200.66mn yuan in a fully automated facility to process germanium-bearing waste slag.

The Yunnan Germanium recycling project will have capacity to process 150,000 t/yr of germanium-bearing waste slag. The company has not disclosed the construction timetable or launch date.

The Yunnan Germanium recycling project is designed to improve germanium resource utilisation and support raw material supply for downstream deep-processing products. This matters because germanium is a strategic minor metal used in defence, infrared optics, fibre optics, semiconductors and high-performance electronics.

The project also reflects a broader industry shift. Producers of critical and minor metals are increasingly trying to secure secondary feedstock as primary supply becomes more politically controlled and price volatility rises.

Recycling Capacity Reduces Dependence on External Raw Materials

Yunnan Germanium said partial reliance on externally sourced raw materials exposes it to germanium price volatility. Prices are influenced by global supply-demand conditions and demand from high-end manufacturing sectors.

The new recycling line should help reduce that exposure. By processing waste slag, the company can recover more germanium units from secondary material and support its downstream production chain.

This is strategically important because Yunnan Germanium already consumes significant germanium internally. In 2025, the company produced 29.7t of raw-material-grade germanium metal equivalent for external sales, excluding 68.95t used for internal consumption and third-party processing.

That internal use shows how the company is moving more material into higher-value products rather than selling all output into the merchant market. Recycling can strengthen that model by expanding available feedstock.

Yunnan Germanium also plans to diversify external suppliers of germanium-bearing waste slag. It will seek medium- to long-term supply agreements with quality provisions and emergency replenishment clauses.

The company also plans to build a raw material inventory reserve and a price-alert mechanism. It will adjust production and inventory strategies when germanium prices move by more than 10%.

These measures show a more disciplined approach to minor-metal procurement. In markets such as germanium, small disruptions can produce large price movements because supply is concentrated and liquidity is limited.

Export Controls Increase Strategic Value of Germanium Recovery

Germanium has become more strategically sensitive since China placed the metal under strict dual-use export controls in September 2023. China accounts for an estimated 60-70% of global germanium capacity.

This gives Chinese producers significant influence over global availability. It also makes domestic resource recovery more valuable, especially when export controls, defence demand and semiconductor-related applications increase policy attention.

Yunnan Germanium’s revenue rose to 1.07bn yuan in 2025 from 767mn yuan in 2024. Higher prices for key products, including raw-material-grade germanium, supported the increase despite lower external raw metal output.

The company’s recycling investment therefore supports both security and profitability. More stable feedstock access can improve operating flexibility when prices rise or external raw material supply tightens.

For downstream customers, the project may improve Yunnan Germanium’s ability to supply deeper-processed products. These include materials linked to optics, fibre communication, photovoltaics, infrared systems and compound semiconductors.

The broader market implication is clear. Germanium supply security will depend not only on mine output or primary production, but also on recycling, waste recovery, inventory control and long-term feedstock agreements.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Yunnan Germanium’s recycling plan shows that strategic minor metals are moving toward closed-loop resource control. In germanium, the advantage will belong to producers that can combine primary supply, secondary recovery and downstream processing under one feedstock strategy.

USA Rare Earth Serra Verde Acquisition Builds Ex-China Magnet Supply Chain

Serra Verde Group

USA Rare Earth Serra Verde acquisition will give the US rare earth producer direct access to one of the most important heavy rare earth projects outside China. The company has agreed to acquire Brazil’s Serra Verde Group for $2.8bn, accelerating its strategy to build a fully integrated mine-to-magnet supply chain.

The deal includes $300mn in cash and 126.85mn USA Rare Earth shares. After completion, USA Rare Earth shareholders will own 66% of the combined company, while Serra Verde shareholders will own 34%.

USA Rare Earth Serra Verde acquisition is strategically important because Serra Verde owns the Pela Ema ionic clay mine in Brazil. The project targets production of 6,400 t/yr of rare earth oxides by the end of 2027, with plans to double output later.

The acquisition gives USA Rare Earth exposure to four key magnet rare earth elements: neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium. These materials are essential for high-performance permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, aerospace, defence systems and advanced industrial motors.

The transaction also strengthens the company’s position in yttrium. Initial Serra Verde output is expected to include 1,534 t/yr of yttrium, a material whose price has risen sharply in the US market and which has strategic applications in ceramics, phosphors, electronics, alloys and defence-related materials.

Serra Verde Adds Heavy Rare Earth Feedstock and Price-Floor Protection

Serra Verde’s Pela Ema project gives USA Rare Earth a near-term rare earth oxide production base. Ionic clay deposits are strategically attractive because they can contain valuable heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium.

Initial planned output of 6,400 t/yr of rare earth oxides is expected to include 164 t/yr of dysprosium and 29 t/yr of terbium. These are small volumes compared with light rare earths, but they carry high strategic value because they improve magnet performance in high-temperature applications.

Dysprosium and terbium are especially important for permanent magnets used in EV traction motors, wind turbine generators, industrial robotics, guided systems and aerospace components. Without these elements, magnets can lose performance under heat and stress.

The deal also includes a 15-year offtake agreement previously signed by Serra Verde with a special-purpose vehicle funded by US government agencies, including the Department of Commerce and Department of Energy. This gives the project a policy-backed commercial structure rather than relying only on spot-market sales.

The offtake agreement includes price floors for neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium. Floors are set at $110/kg for neodymium and praseodymium, $575/kg for dysprosium and $2,050/kg for terbium.

This structure is important because rare earth projects outside China often struggle when prices fall. Price floors can improve project bankability by protecting revenues and reducing the risk that China-linked supply undercuts new producers during market downturns.

Serra Verde will also share 70% of non-China index prices above the floor, net of separation costs. This gives the project exposure to upside while maintaining downside protection.

The company can also monetise non-offtake elements, including yttrium. That flexibility matters because ionic clay resources can contain multiple valuable rare earths beyond the main magnet feedstocks.

The market timing is favourable for heavy rare earth producers. US yttrium oxide prices have risen sharply, while dysprosium and terbium remain high-value magnet materials. Supply chains outside China remain thin, and buyers are increasingly focused on traceable, geopolitically secure material.

However, the acquisition does not remove execution risk. Serra Verde must still deliver target output, manage ramp-up, maintain product quality and connect mine production with separation, metal and magnet capacity.

Mine-to-Magnet Roll-Up Tests Western Rare Earth Integration

USA Rare Earth Serra Verde acquisition is part of a broader roll-up strategy. The company is building its supply chain through acquisitions rather than waiting for long greenfield development timelines.

USA Rare Earth bought UK-based Less Common Metals for $125mn in November. Less Common Metals gives the company rare earth metal and alloy production capability, a critical midstream step between separated oxides and finished magnets.

The company also acquired Texas Mineral Resources for $73mn in March to secure the Round Top heavy rare earth project in Texas. Round Top adds a US-based heavy rare earth resource to the group’s upstream portfolio.

Together, Serra Verde and Round Top are expected to give the combined company 17,100 t/yr of rare earth oxide mining capacity. Separation capacity will total 13,000 t/yr, while expanded metal and magnet-making capacity is planned at 27,500 t/yr and 10,000 t/yr, respectively.

This integration is the key point. Rare earth supply security cannot be solved by mining alone. Ore or concentrate must be separated, refined, converted into metals, alloyed and manufactured into magnets before it can support industrial customers.

Many western rare earth projects fail to cover the full chain. Some have resources but no separation. Others have separation but no heavy rare earth feedstock. Some can produce oxides but lack metal conversion and magnet-making capacity.

USA Rare Earth argues that the merged company will be the only fully integrated magnet supplier outside China. The claim reflects the company’s attempt to combine upstream heavy rare earth resources, separation, metal production and magnet manufacturing in one platform.

That structure could be attractive to customers in defence, aerospace, automotive, robotics and clean energy. These buyers increasingly need non-China supply options that can meet origin, traceability, qualification and security requirements.

The US government-backed offtake component also shows how rare earth supply chains are changing. Western governments are no longer relying only on free-market procurement. They are using price floors, strategic vehicles, financing support and industrial policy to build alternative supply.

Still, integration brings complexity. USA Rare Earth must combine assets across Brazil, Texas, the UK and planned downstream facilities. It must align mining output, separation chemistry, metal production, magnet capacity, customer qualification and government-backed offtake obligations.

The valuation also raises expectations. A $2.8bn acquisition price gives Serra Verde a large strategic premium. The deal will need to deliver heavy rare earth output, stable separation economics and customer demand to justify that value.

The broader market implication is clear. Heavy rare earth supply is becoming the strategic centre of the magnet market. Neodymium and praseodymium remain essential, but dysprosium and terbium determine performance in the most demanding applications.

China still dominates much of the rare earth separation, metal and magnet chain. The USA Rare Earth-Serra Verde deal is an attempt to create an alternative industrial route at scale.

If successful, the combined company could become a rare western platform with upstream resources, heavy rare earth exposure, midstream conversion and downstream magnet capability. If execution slips, it will show again how difficult it is to recreate China’s integrated rare earth ecosystem outside China.

The Metalnomist Commentary

USA Rare Earth Serra Verde acquisition shows that the rare earth race is shifting from single-asset mining stories to integrated supply-chain control. The deal’s real test will be whether USA Rare Earth can turn Brazilian ionic clay output, US heavy rare earth resources, separation capacity and magnet production into a bankable ex-China magnet platform.

Outokumpu US chromium metal investment targets high-value aerospace and defence demand

Outokumpu US chromium metal

Outokumpu US chromium metal investment marks a strategic move into premium specialty metals for aerospace, defence and energy markets. The New Hampshire pilot plant will produce enriched ferro-chrome at 65pc Cr and chromium metal at 90pc Cr purity. As a result, Outokumpu US chromium metal investment positions the group closer to high-spec alloy supply chains in North America.

Low-carbon chromium technology and staged capacity build-out

Outokumpu is using proprietary low-carbon technology at the new US pilot plant. The facility is scheduled to start operations in the first half of 2027, following earlier R&D work at its Boston laboratory opened in 2024. Therefore, Outokumpu US chromium metal investment clearly links regional technology development with commercial-scale metals production.

The $45mn pilot project will validate process performance, carbon intensity and product quality for enriched ferro-chrome and chromium metal. After the pilot phase, Outokumpu plans an industrial-scale plant with 10,000 t/yr capacity, targeted for 2029-30 start-up. This staged approach reduces scale-up risk while building customer confidence in long-term chromium supply.

Premium chromium metal for aerospace and critical sectors

Outokumpu aims to supply premium-priced chromium metal into high-value aerospace, defence and energy applications. Chromium metal already trades at a wide pricing spread by origin and specification, with European material priced well above Chinese and Russian supply. European-origin chromium for aerospace and defence often sits at or above the top of current market assessments, reinforcing the value of qualifying high-purity product.

By anchoring production in the US, Outokumpu can offer a Western, lower-carbon source of chromium metal and enriched ferro-chrome. This strengthens regional resilience for aero-engine alloys, superalloys and advanced stainless grades. In turn, the Outokumpu US chromium metal investment moves the company’s ferro-chrome business further into the specialty metals space, as highlighted by chief technology officer Stefan Erdmann.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu is reading the market correctly by aligning chromium metal capacity with aerospace and defence re-shoring trends. If the new technology delivers both lower carbon and tight specifications, the company could secure a durable price premium despite global oversupply risks. The key watchpoints now are qualification timelines with major alloy producers and how quickly industrial-scale capacity locks in long-term offtake.

Chinese Cobalt Prices Expected to Decline Further in 2025 Amid Rising Supply and Weak Demand

Chinese Cobalt Manufacturing

Oversupply and Weak Demand to Push Cobalt Prices Lower

The Chinese cobalt market is set to experience further price declines in 2025, as increasing nickel and copper production, from which cobalt is a by-product, leads to an oversupply that buyers are struggling to absorb.

Currently, Chinese-origin cobalt metal traded in Europe has already seen significant pressure due to a lack of floor pricing on raw materials, a trend expected to persist into the new year. Market insiders suggest that cobalt prices could drop below $9/lb, as fully integrated Chinese producers view cobalt as a credit to their primary metal production, particularly nickel and copper.

For these refiners, cobalt is a secondary concern. As one trading firm explained, some Chinese producers operate with production costs as low as $4,000 per ton while selling at $9,000 per ton. Even if they incur a $50 million loss on cobalt, they may still profit significantly from copper production, which can generate up to $700 million in gains.

Chinese Refiners Likely to Continue Production at a Loss

Unlike non-Chinese refiners, which may curtail supply if cobalt prices fall below $9/lb, some Chinese integrated mining firms and refiners could continue refining hydroxide into metal at a loss-making $7-8/lb.

While there is speculation that some Chinese metal producers may attempt to negotiate floor prices in their contracts, it remains uncertain whether these efforts will succeed. Market participants are closely watching how these negotiations unfold, as they could provide some level of price support if successful.

Global Nickel and Copper Growth to Sustain Cobalt Oversupply

The primary factor driving cobalt’s oversupply is the continued expansion of nickel and copper production, as cobalt is a by-product of both metals.

• Nickel production is set to rise again in 2025 with the launch of new Class 1 nickel refineries in China and Indonesia. This will likely keep London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month official nickel prices within the $15,000-17,000 per ton range, significantly lower than the $30,000 per ton peak in early 2023.

• Copper production is also projected to increase due to expansions at mines such as Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Although cobalt sales represent only a minor portion of copper mining revenues, producers still aim to extract value from it as a credit.

Weakened Demand from EV and Chemicals Sectors Further Pressures Prices

While cobalt demand in China has surged by 40%, this has not been enough to counteract weakening demand in other regions, particularly in Europe:

• The electric vehicle (EV) sector in Europe has slowed down, leading to reduced demand for cathode active materials like cobalt.

• The European chemicals industry, particularly in Germany, has struggled due to rising energy costs and broader economic challenges.

Even if prices do increase, China has ample spare refining capacity and could use third-party tolling arrangements to process hydroxide into metal, further maintaining downward price pressure.

Peak Oversupply May Be Near, But Price Recovery Remains Uncertain

Some market participants believe that cobalt hydroxide oversupply may have already peaked. The shift towards lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which do not use cobalt, has significantly impacted the demand for nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery chemistries, leading to lower demand for cobalt sulfate and cobalt hydroxide.

However, despite this potential supply peak, weak demand across key industrial sectors suggests that cobalt prices are unlikely to see a strong recovery in the near term.

Conclusion

In 2025, Chinese cobalt prices are expected to remain under pressure due to rising nickel and copper production, ongoing oversupply, and weak demand from the European EV and chemicals sectors. While some believe that the cobalt market may be nearing peak oversupply, prices are unlikely to experience significant upward momentum unless demand rebounds sharply or supply reductions occur.

NPI–Class I Nickel Spread Narrows as Metal Oversupply Pressures Prices

Nickel cathode

NPI–class I nickel spread narrowed sharply in March as persistent oversupply in the class I nickel market pushed metal prices lower, while nickel pig iron prices stayed supported by elevated production costs. The average spread fell to $2,975/t in March, down from the 2025 annual average of $3,696/t.

The narrower NPI–class I nickel spread shows how differently the two nickel markets are behaving. Class I nickel remains under pressure from high exchange stocks and weak absorption from battery and alloy users. NPI, by contrast, is being held up by Indonesian ore costs and a firmer production cost floor.

The current spread also discourages additional class I output from NPI conversion. Estimated conversion costs from NPI to class I nickel remain around $4,000/t, meaning producers using NPI as feedstock would face negative margins at current price levels.

This creates an important signal for the nickel supply chain. Oversupply is still weighing on refined metal, but high feedstock and processing costs are preventing prices from falling evenly across all nickel products.

Class I Nickel Oversupply Keeps Metal Prices Under Pressure

Class I nickel oversupply remains the main reason behind the compressed spread. London Metal Exchange nickel stocks reached 289,506t on 26 February, the highest level since May 2018.

Ample exchange inventory has pressured class I nickel prices and opened an import arbitrage window into China. China’s nickel imports rose by 18% in January-February as lower overseas prices made imported metal more attractive.

However, end-user demand has not been strong enough to absorb the surplus. Battery and alloy-sector consumption remained insufficient to clear the additional metal units, pushing Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel stocks higher.

SHFE nickel inventories rose to 65,764t on 10 April from 45,544t on 9 January. This inventory build shows that imports and domestic availability are running ahead of immediate consumption.

The oversupply problem is structural in the near term. New class I capacity has continued to emerge, while demand from stainless steel, batteries and specialty alloys has not grown fast enough to rebalance the market.

The NPI conversion route is therefore unattractive. When the NPI–class I nickel spread sits below conversion cost, producers have little incentive to turn NPI into refined metal. This helps prevent additional supply from that route, but it does not immediately remove existing class I oversupply.

NPI prices have been more resilient because they are tied closely to Indonesian ore economics. Indonesian nickel ore prices remain elevated and continue to trade above the government-mandated price floor.

Concerns over tight ore availability have supported feedstock values. This has limited NPI producers’ willingness to cut prices, even though stainless steel demand remains only average.

That cost floor is important. NPI is not rising because downstream demand is exceptionally strong. It is holding because ore, mining quotas and Indonesian pricing policy are preventing a deeper fall.

The result is a distorted market structure. Class I nickel is being pulled down by inventory pressure, while NPI is being supported by feedstock costs. This explains why the spread has narrowed despite weak overall nickel sentiment.

MHP and HPAL Costs Could Rebuild the Spread Over Time

Mixed hydroxide precipitate is becoming the more important cost driver for future class I nickel production. Much of the newly added class I capacity relies on MHP feedstock rather than NPI.

Integrated producers with their own Indonesian MHP capacity have a cost advantage. Their MHP production costs are estimated at around $13,000/t in nickel metal equivalent, with conversion costs from MHP to metal at roughly $3,000/t.

This places the total cost of class I production through the MHP route at about $16,000/t. That cost base can still support production for integrated operators, but it leaves less room for producers relying on third-party MHP.

The market problem is that MHP supply is not sufficient to meet all feedstock requirements for new class I capacity. This creates competition for MHP units and limits how much low-cost refined nickel can be produced through this route.

Cost pressure is also rising across HPAL operations. Middle East tensions have tightened sulphur availability and lifted sulphur prices, which directly affects MHP producers that rely on sulphuric acid-intensive processing.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid are central to HPAL economics. Any disruption to sulphur flows can raise operating costs, reduce margins or force producers to curtail output if acid availability becomes constrained.

Indonesia’s revised nickel ore pricing formula adds another layer of pressure. The new formula is expected to have a greater impact on ore consumed by HPAL projects than on ore used by rotary kiln electric furnace operations.

This is because HPAL ore often trades closer to official pricing levels, while RKEF ore used for NPI already trades at premiums well above the benchmark. As a result, HPAL producers may feel the revised HPM framework more directly.

Higher ore prices and higher taxes could lift MHP production costs. That would eventually raise the cost floor for class I nickel produced through the MHP route, especially for integrated producers that had previously enjoyed lower feedstock costs.

This cost inflation may support class I nickel prices over time. While current oversupply is weighing on metal values, producers cannot keep adding supply indefinitely if feedstock and conversion costs rise.

NPI prices are also likely to remain anchored by costs. Indonesian ore tightness, quota uncertainty and pricing reforms should continue to support NPI even if stainless steel demand stays moderate.

As MHP costs rise and NPI prices remain cost-supported, the NPI–class I nickel spread may widen back toward the $3,500-4,000/t range over time. That would restore a more normal relationship between feedstock products and refined metal.

However, the timing depends on inventory absorption. Class I nickel prices will struggle to recover strongly until exchange stocks stop rising and downstream demand improves.

For battery supply chains, the key issue is cost pass-through. If MHP and HPAL costs rise while class I prices remain weak, margins across nickel sulphate and cathode material chains could tighten.

For stainless steel producers, NPI resilience means raw material costs may remain sticky even without strong demand. This could limit margin recovery if finished stainless prices do not rise in parallel.

The nickel market is therefore entering a complex adjustment phase. Oversupply is pushing refined metal lower, while policy, ore availability, sulphur costs and HPAL economics are raising the cost floor beneath intermediate products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The narrowing NPI–class I nickel spread is not a sign of healthy convergence. It reflects class I oversupply on one side and cost-protected NPI on the other. The next shift will likely come from rising HPAL and MHP costs, not from a sudden recovery in nickel demand.

Battery Metal Demand Faces Pressure From Rising Consumer Electronics Prices

Consumer Electronic

Battery metal demand could face new pressure if rising consumer electronics prices slow replacement cycles for smartphones and other portable devices. Higher handset prices are already emerging in China, where major smartphone brands have lifted prices by 200-1,000 yuan per unit.

Battery metal demand remains closely tied to consumer electronics, especially for cobalt. Mobile phones, laptops, tablets, and other portable devices are a major downstream market, accounting for around 35pc of global cobalt consumption and about 3pc of lithium demand.

Battery metal demand has not yet shown an immediate spot-market reaction. However, the risk is becoming more visible as semiconductor supply chains face energy, helium, and logistics pressure linked to the Middle East conflict.

Smartphone Price Increases Threaten Replacement Demand

Consumer electronics demand is highly sensitive to price and upgrade cycles. If smartphone prices rise further, consumers may delay replacing older devices, reducing near-term battery demand from the electronics sector.

Major Chinese smartphone manufacturers including OPPO, vivo, and Honor have already raised prices. Some flagship models are now about 10pc more expensive, reflecting pressure from tighter memory-chip supply and higher input costs.

The main risk comes from the semiconductor supply chain. South Korea and Taiwan host some of the world’s most advanced chipmaking capacity, and both rely heavily on Middle East crude imports that transit the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged disruption could increase chip production costs and further lift electronics prices.

Cobalt and Lithium Markets Still Face Strong Supply-Side Offsets

Battery metal demand weakness from electronics may be partly offset by supply-side disruptions. The cobalt market remains under pressure after the Democratic Republic of Congo effectively paused exports following concerns over mismatched assay results for cobalt hydroxide.

This matters because the DRC is the world’s largest cobalt feedstock producer. Any delay in hydroxide exports can tighten supply to refiners and support prices, even if electronics demand softens.

Lithium markets are also watching Zimbabwe’s export ban. Market participants are assessing whether the restriction will offset slower buying and whether concentrate exports could resume soon.

The helium shortage adds another layer of risk. Qatar supplies about a third of global helium output, and disruption has pushed inventories at some memory-chip producers toward warning levels. Since helium is essential for semiconductor manufacturing, continued tightness could keep pressure on chip prices and consumer electronics costs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Battery metal demand is now exposed to a new kind of risk: not only EV sales or energy storage growth, but also semiconductor-linked consumer inflation. If electronics demand weakens while cobalt and lithium supply disruptions persist, price direction will depend on which force moves faster.