JPMorgan Cuts Base Metal Price Forecasts Amid Recession Fears

JPMorgan Metal Price Report Image

Focus Keyphrase: Base Metal Price Forecasts

JPMorgan has sharply lowered its base metal price forecasts, citing rising recession risks tied to Donald Trump's trade policies. The bank now anticipates up to a 20% drop in average prices through 2026 due to tariff-driven reductions in global demand growth, particularly for copper and aluminium.

Forecasts for copper and aluminium demand fell by 1%, flipping projected deficits into surpluses of 170,000t and 200,000t, respectively. Nickel and zinc markets are also now expected to post significant surpluses of 250,000t and 130,000t in 2025.

Copper and Aluminium Markets See Major Revisions

Copper is now forecast to average $8,300/t in Q1, down from $9,400/t, and $9,000/t in Q4, down from $10,400/t. Aluminium prices are similarly revised to $2,200/t in Q1, with only modest gains expected later in the year.

Despite stimulus measures stabilizing China’s demand outlook, JPMorgan expects global oversupply. Lower economic activity, particularly in developed economies, will weigh on construction and industrial consumption.

Nickel and Zinc Also Face Downward Pressure

Nickel and zinc price forecasts were cut by 12% for the rest of 2025. For 2026, copper prices are now expected to average $9,375/t (down 15%) and aluminium at $2,463/t (down 14%). Nickel and zinc follow suit with price declines of 10% and 8%, respectively.

JPMorgan emphasized that downside risks dominate the outlook, as further trade war escalation could trigger deeper recessions. This may push prices below cost curves and pressure marginal producers globally.

The Metalnomist Commentary

JPMorgan’s revised forecasts reflect growing uncertainty in global industrial demand. As trade tensions escalate, metals markets could remain under pressure unless macroeconomic momentum improves.