Global Refined Copper Market Recorded January Surplus as Scrap Output Rose

Copper Coil

Global refined copper market data showed a January surplus as higher mine production and stronger secondary output outweighed moderate demand growth. The market recorded a surplus of around 17,000t, down from about 60,000t in January a year earlier.

The surplus was estimated at around 16,000t after adjusting for changes in Chinese bonded stocks. This indicated that the global refined copper market remained broadly balanced, but rising inventories and limited demand momentum prevented a tighter supply picture.

The global refined copper market was supported by higher mine output in Peru and Mongolia, while stronger scrap-based refined production in China lifted secondary supply. However, disruptions in Chile, Indonesia and parts of the DRC continued to limit a broader recovery in primary supply.

Mine Growth and Secondary Production Offset Supply Disruptions

Global mine production increased by 2.2% on the year to about 1.92mn t in January. Peru’s output rose by 3%, supported by higher production at Antamina, Las Bambas, Antapaccay and Toromocho.

Mongolia delivered a much stronger increase of around 35% after the continued ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground project. This helped offset weaker output in Chile, where mine production fell by around 3%.

Indonesian production remained significantly lower after the 2025 mud rush incident at Grasberg. In the DRC, overall output rose by about 1% as solvent extraction and electrowinning growth offset a sharp decline in concentrate output linked to disruption at Kamoa.

Global refined copper production increased by around 1% to 2.43mn t. Primary production declined by 1.4% to 1.98mn t, while secondary production rose by about 11% to roughly 445,000t, mainly because of higher scrap-based production in China.

Inventories and Modest Demand Growth Limited Market Tightness

Global apparent refined copper usage rose by around 2.5% to about 2.41mn t in January. Demand growth was led by regions outside China, with Asia, the Middle East and north Africa increasing usage by about 4%.

Chinese apparent demand grew by around 1%, but net refined copper imports into China fell by 44%. This mattered because China accounted for 58% of global refined copper usage.

Inventory growth reinforced the perception of adequate supply. Global refined copper stocks reached around 1.93mn t by the end of January, while combined exchange inventories climbed to about 1.2mn t by the end of February, the highest level since March 2003.

The data showed that supply disruptions had not disappeared, but mine ramp-ups and stronger secondary copper production were enough to offset losses. As a result, the global refined copper market stayed balanced, with rising stocks limiting near-term bullish pressure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper’s January surplus showed that scrap and new mine capacity can still soften the impact of regional disruptions. The key question is whether rising inventories reflect temporary timing effects or weaker underlying demand in a market still waiting for stronger electrification-led consumption.

Global Energy Storage Market Expands as China Drives Record Growth

China Energy Storage

Global energy storage market growth accelerated in 2025, with China remaining the main force behind new capacity additions and technology diversification. The country’s cumulative operating power storage capacity reached 213.3GW by the end of the year, accounting for 43% of the global total.

China energy storage growth was especially strong in new-type energy storage, which includes lithium-ion batteries and vanadium redox flow batteries but excludes pumped hydro. China’s new-type storage capacity rose to 144.7GW, representing more than two-thirds of its total storage fleet and 51.9% of global new-type installations.

The global energy storage market also became more diversified. Pumped hydro’s share of global operating capacity fell below 50% for the first time, while new-type storage expanded rapidly to 278.7GW/687.5GWh.

China Leads Storage Deployment as VRFB Projects Gain Share

China’s energy storage sector remained dominated by lithium-ion batteries in 2025. However, lithium-ion’s share slipped slightly as several large long-duration storage projects using all-vanadium redox flow battery technology came online.

This shift matters because grid storage demand is no longer only about short-duration battery systems. Longer-duration applications are gaining relevance as renewable penetration rises and power systems require more flexibility, peak shifting and grid stability.

Independent energy storage became China’s main application model, accounting for around 60% of total installed capacity. This shows that storage is increasingly being deployed as standalone grid infrastructure, not only as an accessory to solar or wind projects.

Chinese manufacturers also strengthened their global position. Sungrow, Tesla, CRRC Zhuzhou Institute, BYD and Envision Energy ranked as the world’s top five energy storage system shipment providers in 2025, highlighting the growing concentration of supply among large integrated players.

Lithium Demand Rises as Storage Becomes a Core Battery Market

The global energy storage market reached 496.2GW of cumulative operating power storage capacity by the end of 2025, up 33.3% from the previous year. New installations hit a record 123.9GW, led by China, the US and Europe, while the Middle East and Latin America gained momentum.

The US added 18.4GW/48.3GWh of new-type storage capacity in 2025, while Europe added 15.4GW/32.1GWh. These figures show that storage growth is becoming global, even though China remains the dominant scale market.

Energy storage is also reshaping battery materials demand. The sector accounted for 25% of global lithium demand in 2025, up sharply from 5% in 2020, making storage one of the most important demand drivers for lithium carbonate, lithium iron phosphate materials and battery supply chains.

Stronger storage demand helped push battery-grade lithium carbonate prices to 158,000-168,000 yuan/t at the end of March, up 120% from a year earlier. This confirms that stationary storage has moved from a secondary battery market into a major force in lithium pricing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s dominance in energy storage shows how quickly battery supply chains can scale when policy, manufacturing and grid demand align. The next phase will test whether lithium, vanadium and power equipment supply can keep pace with global storage deployment.

Global refined zinc market surplus set to widen through 2026

Zinc

The global refined zinc market surplus is forecast to widen sharply as supply growth outpaces a modest demand recovery. According to ILZSG projections, refined zinc will move from an 85,000t surplus in 2025 to a 271,000t surplus in 2026. As a result, the global refined zinc market surplus will increasingly shape treatment charges, pricing power and smelter utilisation, especially outside China. The refined zinc balance already showed a 47,000t surplus in the first half of this year, confirming the shift from earlier tightness.

However, demand for refined zinc is still expected to grow, even under pressure from weak construction and patchy industrial activity. ILZSG forecasts refined zinc use to rise by 1.1pc to 13.71mn t in 2025, led by a 1.3pc increase in China on stronger vehicle output. Meanwhile, European demand should finally stabilise, rising by 0.7pc after three years of contraction, with France, Germany, Norway and Poland offsetting declines in Italy and Russia. Emerging markets including India, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and Vietnam will also support consumption, even as Brazil and South Korea lag.

Supply expansion drives global refined zinc market surplus

The global refined zinc market surplus is driven primarily by a clear upturn in mine and smelter supply. ILZSG expects zinc mine production to rise by 4.6pc to 12.51mn t in 2025, with 5pc growth outside China. Therefore, higher output from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ireland, Portugal, Russia and Sweden joins gains in China, South Africa, Peru and the DRC. Further mine growth in 2026 will be underpinned by the reopening of Aljustrel in Portugal and higher production in Australia, Brazil, the DRC and China.

At the smelter level, refined zinc output is forecast to rise by 2.7pc to 13.8mn t in 2025, then by 2.4pc to 14.13mn t in 2026. The biggest driver is China, where new capacity is being commissioned and is expected to lift output by 6.2pc in 2025. Meanwhile, European production receives a structural boost from Boliden’s 150,000 t/yr expansion at the Odda smelter in Norway. These increases will outweigh declines in Italy, Japan, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and South Korea, locking in the global refined zinc market surplus unless demand surprises to the upside.

Refined lead market also tips into surplus

The surplus story extends beyond zinc, with refined lead also moving into a looser balance. ILZSG projects refined lead supply to exceed demand by 91,000t in 2025 and 102,000t in 2026. Demand for refined lead is still expected to rise by 1.8pc this year to 13.25mn t, and by 0.9pc to 13.37mn t in 2026, driven mainly by Europe, Vietnam and the US. However, supply will grow faster, with refined lead output seen rising by 2pc to 13.34mn t in 2025 and by 1pc to 13.47mn t in 2026, supported particularly by Brazil and India. As a result, both zinc and lead markets are heading into a multi-year period of oversupply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The global refined zinc market surplus projected for 2025–26 signals a prolonged phase of buyer’s market dynamics in galvanising and alloy segments. Smelters with high energy costs or weaker integration into mine supply will face the greatest margin pressure as treatment terms and premiums adjust. For lead, surpluses underline the importance of battery recycling economics and regional policy support, especially as EV and energy storage value chains reshape traditional lead-acid demand.

Global Battery Demand Nears 1TWh in 2024 as LFP Market Share Surges

Battery

EV Growth and China Lead Surge in Battery Demand

Global battery demand reached nearly 1TWh in 2024, largely driven by rising electric vehicle (EV) adoption, according to the IEA's latest EV Outlook 2025. The Focus Keyphrase "global battery demand" continues to dominate energy transition narratives as EV sales accelerate across major economies.

EV battery demand alone exceeded 950GWh, accounting for more than 85% of total battery consumption. China led with 59% of EV battery demand, followed by the U.S. and EU, each holding a 13% share. The IEA projects battery demand will more than triple to over 3TWh by 2030 under current national policies. While supply of critical minerals is currently in surplus, the IEA warns that depressed prices could deter future investment, risking lithium and nickel shortages by decade’s end.

Battery Manufacturing Grows Faster Than Demand

Global battery manufacturing capacity grew by nearly 30% to 3.3TWh in 2024, tripling actual demand. If all announced projects proceed, capacity could reach 6.5TWh by 2030, outpacing the IEA’s projected demand.

South Korea led overseas battery capacity expansion with over 400GWh deployed in 2024, far ahead of Japan (60GWh) and China (30GWh). If planned projects materialize, South Korea could produce over 1TWh annually by 2030, almost double China’s expected output. As a result, China’s global manufacturing share is projected to fall from 85% in 2024 to two-thirds by 2030, diversifying global supply chains.

LFP Dominates Market as Regional Dynamics Shift

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries now make up nearly half of the global EV battery market, with Chinese producers holding a de facto monopoly, especially in Europe and the U.S. European OEMs are increasingly opting for LFP chemistries to cut costs, displacing South Korean suppliers.

South Korean battery makers’ EU market share fell to 60% in 2024, down from 80% in 2022, while their U.S. market share rose to 35%, closing in on Japan’s 48%. Major Korean firms — LG Energy Solution, SK On, Samsung SDI — are all preparing for mass LFP production to compete in this fast-growing segment.

Meanwhile, LFP adoption in Southeast Asia, Brazil, and India has surpassed 50% of battery electric car sales, signaling rapid global penetration. However, Japanese battery makers face domestic setbacks, highlighted by Nissan’s cancellation of its Kyushu LFP plant amid restructuring.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The rise in global battery demand underscores a structural transformation in energy, mobility, and manufacturing. While demand growth is robust, the oversupply of battery capacity and volatility in mineral prices highlight the sector’s growing pains. As LFP continues its global ascent, regional competition and vertical integration will shape the future of the battery ecosystem.

Global aluminium deficit to widen as EV and renewable demand surges

Global aluminium

Global aluminium deficit is set to widen from 2025 as demand outruns constrained supply. Forecasts show global primary aluminium supply rising to 74.3mn t in 2025, 75.8mn t in 2026 and 76.5mn t in 2027, driven mainly by new smelter projects outside China. However, parallel demand growth from electric vehicles and renewable energy will push consumption to 74.5mn t in 2025, 76.1mn t in 2026 and 76.8mn t in 2027, creating annual deficits. These figures translate into a global aluminium deficit of 166,000t in 2025, 281,000t in 2026 and 291,000t in 2027, underscoring a steadily tightening balance.

EV and regional supply dynamics reshape global aluminium deficit

The global aluminium deficit emerges despite incremental regional capacity growth and relatively stable legacy production. Australian primary aluminium output is expected to remain flat at 1.6mn t/yr across 2025-27, highlighting limited upside from a key exporter. Meanwhile, Chinese production is expected to remain below its formal 45mn t/yr cap, reinforcing structural constraints in the world’s largest market. Additional tonnes will therefore come from newer producers, with Indonesia forecast to lift output to 700,000t in 2025 and then double to 1.4mn t by 2027.

India also plays an important role in narrowing, but not eliminating, the global aluminium deficit. Indian primary production is expected to reach 4.2mn t in 2025 and 4.7mn t in 2027, supported by recent smelter investments and captive power integration. However, growth in EV and renewable segments is highly aluminium-intensive, especially for body sheet, castings and extrusions. As a result, structural demand from auto light-weighting, power transmission, solar frames and battery casings will likely sustain the global aluminium deficit even if some projects underperform. Rising primary prices and strong interest in low-carbon metal will deepen the premium gap between conventional and certified low-carbon material.

Recycling, alumina and bauxite respond to shifting aluminium fundamentals

Recycled metal is set to play a larger role in balancing the global aluminium deficit. Global demand for recycled aluminium is expected to increase from 27mn t in 2025 to 29mn t in 2027, reflecting OEM and policy pressure to cut embedded emissions. Total recycled output is forecast to reach 40mn t in 2025 and 44mn t in 2027, driven by higher utilisation of scrap in China, the US and Europe. This shift will partly cushion primary tightness, but scrap quality, collection systems and sorting capacity will limit how far recycling alone can offset the global aluminium deficit.

Midstream markets show a different pattern, with alumina entering a cyclical surplus even as primary metal tightens. Global alumina output is expected to increase to 148mn t in 2025 and 164mn t by 2027, while demand rises more slowly to 145mn t in 2025 and 151mn t in 2027. This surplus suggests downward pressure on alumina prices as global production recovers. Australian alumina output is forecast to rise from under 17.4mn t in 2024–25 to over 18.5mn t in 2026–27, supported by higher production at the Worsley refinery. In turn, global bauxite supply is projected to reach 422mn t in 2025 and 443mn t in 2027, against demand of 373mn t and 414mn t, highlighting a modest buffer at the ore stage even as the global aluminium deficit tightens the finished metal market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The projected global aluminium deficit through 2027 underscores how quickly EV and renewable investment can tighten a previously balanced market. For producers, stable alumina and ample bauxite create a favourable cost backdrop, but power prices and carbon policies will still define margins. For buyers, competition for low-carbon and recycled units will intensify, making long-term contracts, scrap strategy and regional diversification critical to securing supply.

China LFP Supply Deal Between Wanrun and CATL Secures 1.32 Million Tonnes

Wanrun

China LFP supply deal reached historic proportions as Hubei Wanrun New Energy Technology signed a five-year agreement to deliver 1.32 million tonnes of lithium-iron-phosphate cathode materials to CATL. The massive China LFP supply contract from May 2025 through May 2030 represents one of the largest battery materials procurement agreements in the industry, highlighting CATL's aggressive expansion strategy and LFP technology's growing market dominance.

Strategic Partnership Drives Battery Technology Innovation

China LFP supply partnership extends beyond simple procurement to encompass joint research and development initiatives. Wanrun and CATL agreed to collaborate on high-density LFP product iteration and mass production capabilities while jointly exploring new energy market opportunities. CATL committed to purchasing at least 80% of promised monthly quantities, providing Wanrun with guaranteed revenue streams and production planning certainty.

Meanwhile, Wanrun demonstrated strong operational performance with 2024 LFP production reaching 233,108 tonnes, representing 51% growth from 2023. Sales volumes increased 39% to 228,240 tonnes during the same period, reflecting robust market demand and the company's expanding manufacturing capabilities. This performance trajectory supports the substantial supply commitments made to CATL.

CATL's Market Leadership Drives Demand Growth

However, CATL's explosive growth trajectory necessitates secured raw material supplies for sustained market expansion. The battery giant sold 120 GWh of batteries in Q1 2025, marking 30% year-over-year growth and reinforcing its position as China's largest battery producer. CATL raised $4.6 billion through Hong Kong Stock Exchange share sales on May 20th, specifically targeting global battery market expansion financing.

Therefore, the Wanrun supply agreement aligns perfectly with CATL's international growth strategy and capital deployment plans. The five-year commitment provides production stability while supporting CATL's aggressive capacity expansion across multiple global markets. This strategic partnership model demonstrates how Chinese battery companies integrate vertically to secure critical material supplies.

LFP Technology Gains Global Market Share

Furthermore, lithium-iron-phosphate batteries captured nearly half of the global electric vehicle battery market in 2024 according to the International Energy Agency. LFP technology offers significant advantages including lower manufacturing costs and enhanced safety performance compared to ternary battery alternatives. These benefits drive increasing adoption across automotive manufacturers seeking cost-effective energy storage solutions.

As a result, the Wanrun-CATL partnership positions both companies advantageously within the rapidly expanding LFP segment. China's dominance in LFP production creates competitive advantages for domestic battery manufacturers while supporting the country's electric vehicle industry leadership. The supply agreement reinforces China's integrated approach to battery supply chain control from raw materials through finished products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Wanrun-CATL supply agreement exemplifies China's systematic approach to battery supply chain integration, securing critical materials access while driving technology innovation through strategic partnerships. This 1.32 million tonne commitment reflects both companies' confidence in LFP technology's long-term market prospects and China's continued dominance in global battery manufacturing despite increasing international competition.

Global Refined Zinc Market Stays in Deficit as Demand Outpaces Production

Zinc

Global refined zinc market conditions remained tight in 2025 as consumption continued to exceed production, despite stronger mine output and higher refined metal supply. The deficit narrowed to 33,000t from 69,000t in 2024, but the market still failed to return to the 252,000t surplus recorded in 2023.

The global refined zinc market deficit shows that recovering production has not fully restored balance. Mine supply increased across several major producing regions, but refined demand also continued to grow, led by China and Europe. This kept the zinc value chain under pressure even as concentrate availability improved.

The global refined zinc market also reflected a shift in Chinese trade flows. China imported significantly more zinc contained in concentrates, while refined zinc imports dropped sharply. This suggests stronger reliance on domestic smelting and refining capacity rather than external refined metal supply.

Mine Supply Recovery Improves Concentrate Availability

Global zinc mine production rose by 5.4pc to 12.59mn t in 2025, supported by gains in Australia, China, India, Iran, Peru, South Africa, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. China remained the largest producer, with output rising 2.8pc to 4.07mn t.

Peru recorded one of the strongest increases, with zinc mine output rising 18.6pc to 1.51mn t. Australian output also increased by 2.4pc to 1.13mn t. These gains helped offset declines in the US and Kazakhstan, where production fell by 11.2pc and 5.2pc respectively.

Europe delivered a significant mine-side recovery, with output rising 20.1pc to 1.08mn t. Higher production at the Vares operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, new capacity in Russia, and the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine supported the increase. This recovery improved regional concentrate supply after a difficult period for European zinc mining.

Refined Zinc Demand Keeps Market Balance Tight

World refined zinc output rose by 2.1pc to 13.83mn t in 2025, mainly supported by higher production in China and Europe. Chinese refined output increased by 6.1pc to 7mn t, while European production rose by 2.7pc to 2.17mn t.

Demand still slightly exceeded supply. Global refined zinc consumption rose by 1.9pc to 13.86mn t, with Chinese demand increasing by 1.9pc to 7.05mn t. European demand rose by 3.5pc to 1.98mn t, reinforcing the market’s underlying strength despite uneven industrial conditions.

China’s import structure highlights the changing zinc supply chain. Imports of zinc contained in concentrates rose by 29.8pc to 2.58mn t, while refined zinc imports fell by 51.1pc to 210,000t. This points to stronger concentrate pull from Chinese smelters and reduced dependence on imported refined zinc.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The zinc market is no longer in a deep deficit, but it remains structurally tight enough to keep supply discipline important. The key signal is China’s rising concentrate imports, which show that smelting capacity and raw material access are becoming more important than refined metal trade alone.

Latam EV Market Set for Massive 2025 Expansion Driven by Chinese Automakers

Latam EV Market

The Latam EV market will experience unprecedented growth in 2025 as electric vehicle sales in Latin America and emerging markets double to 1 million units. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Chinese automakers drive this expansion by offering significantly cheaper models than traditional Western brands. The Latam EV market surge represents a critical shift in global automotive demand that will substantially increase battery materials consumption across the region.

Chinese Battery Technology Advantages Fuel Market Penetration

Chinese automakers captured 75% of all EV sales in emerging economies by leveraging superior cost advantages in battery pack manufacturing. China produces cheaper battery packs due to intense competition, enhanced manufacturing efficiency, supply chain integration, and access to skilled workforces. Meanwhile, Chinese battery pack prices fell 30% compared to only 10-15% decreases in Europe and the United States.

BYD and GWM electric vehicles now compete directly with conventional petrol cars in key Latam EV market segments. In Brazil, BYD's largest market outside China, the price gap between battery electric cars and conventional vehicles narrowed to just 25%. Therefore, Chinese manufacturers achieve price parity with internal combustion engines in Thailand and approach competitive pricing across Latin America.

Regional Manufacturing Expansion Promises Further Cost Reductions

Local production capacity remains minimal, with only 5% of EVs sold in emerging markets produced regionally currently. GWM and BYD plan to establish factories in Latin America by late 2026, potentially driving down costs further. As a result, these manufacturing facilities will bypass import tariffs while reducing transportation costs for the expanding Latam EV market.

Regional battery material demand will surge as local EV production scales rapidly across Latin America. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, and other critical minerals consumption will increase substantially to support growing battery manufacturing requirements. However, Latin America possesses significant lithium reserves, particularly in Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, creating opportunities for vertical supply chain integration.

Global EV sales exceeded 17 million units in 2024, capturing 20% market share worldwide. The IEA projects 2025 sales will surpass 20 million units, representing over 25% of global automotive sales. Consequently, the Latam EV market expansion contributes meaningfully to this accelerating global electrification trend.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Latam EV market boom signals a fundamental shift in global battery materials demand geography, with Chinese manufacturers leveraging cost advantages to penetrate price-sensitive emerging markets. This expansion will create substantial new demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel while potentially enabling Latin America to capture more value from its abundant critical mineral resources through local processing and battery manufacturing integration.

China’s policies are reshaping the global tungsten market

International Tungsten Industry Association

China’s tightening controls are fundamentally reshaping the global tungsten market and forcing buyers to rethink supply strategies. The global tungsten market now faces record prices, acute shortages outside China and rising geopolitical risk. As a result, investors and consumers across the global tungsten market are reassessing where to source and where to deploy capital.

China’s export controls on ammonium paratungstate (APT) and tungsten trioxide have sharply reduced export availability. At the same time, China’s surging appetite for tungsten concentrates has deepened shortages in Europe and other consuming regions. Therefore, tungsten prices have climbed to record levels in both APT and concentrate markets.

Meanwhile, import data show that China has become an aggressive buyer of concentrates, with first-half 2025 imports up 75pc year on year. This shift has pushed European and Japanese buyers to pursue alternative strategies, including buying concentrates instead of APT and intensifying recycling and non-Chinese partnerships.

Supply shock exposes vulnerabilities in the global tungsten market

China accounts for roughly 80pc of global APT supply and is now exporting far less material. Since Beijing expanded its export licence regime in February, APT exports dropped by 42pc in January-June 2025 versus a year earlier. Similarly, exports of tungsten trioxide fell by 76pc, leaving European consumers scrambling for units.

As a result, European APT prices have surged to fresh highs of $580–645/mtu duty unpaid Rotterdam. This represents a roughly 20pc increase since the start of the year and a jump from $550–600/mtu only days earlier. European tungsten concentrate prices have followed, rising to $500–520/dmtu in-warehouse Rotterdam, up nearly 30pc year on year.

Consequently, downstream consumers and midstream processors are re-engineering their sourcing models. Buyers are shifting from APT to concentrates where possible and are strengthening ties with alternative suppliers such as Vietnam. Meanwhile, Japanese buyers are boosting recycling rates and deepening co-operation with smelters in Germany and the US to reduce exposure to China.

However, traders find themselves squeezed as limited material flows directly to end users. Many trading houses are sidelined in spot activity and instead look to position themselves with long-term strategies and optionality. This structural shift underlines how fragile and concentrated current tungsten supply chains remain.

Uncertain outlook complicates investment in non-Chinese tungsten projects

On paper, today’s high prices and tightness strongly support new western tungsten projects. Yet equity and debt investors remain wary about whether current conditions in the global tungsten market are durable. Many tungsten mining projects are years from production, and investors fear that a shift in Chinese policy could quickly loosen fundamentals.

Geopolitics further clouds the investment case. The evolving US-China trade conflict and Europe’s position “in the middle” both influence tungsten flows but do not offer clear long-term signals. The US is accelerating efforts to secure domestic supply and support new mines, while Europe is also expected to attract investment as it seeks strategic autonomy. Still, long-term policy direction remains uncertain.

At the same time, Chinese producers stress that tightness reflects genuine domestic demand, not a short-term export tactic. China’s industrial strategy has moved from low-cost manufacturing toward high-value sectors such as photovoltaics. Forecasts suggest tungsten-wire demand from the PV sector could grow 40–50pc annually over the next five years, requiring around 8,000t of tungsten by 2027.

Therefore, it appears unlikely that China will import large volumes of concentrates only to flood European markets later. While China clearly has the ability to do so, conference participants see that scenario as implausible given the strength of its internal consumption. For now, the base case is high but stabilising prices, with the next few months likely to shape long-term procurement and investment decisions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s gradual pivot from “world’s tungsten factory” to voracious downstream consumer is forcing a structural repricing of risk. For miners and financiers outside China, the challenge is to move before the window closes, yet not overbuild into a market still governed by Beijing’s policy choices. Buyers who secure diversified, traceable tungsten supply now may find that this period of pain ultimately buys them strategic resilience.

Ferro-Chrome Prices Under Pressure Amid Rising Global Production

ICDA

The ferro-chrome market is experiencing persistent downward pressure on spot prices, driven by rising global production and weaker demand from downstream markets in the EU and US. These trends were highlighted during the International Chromium Development Association (ICDA) annual conference in South Africa.

Rising Global Production and Market Shifts

According to ICDA senior market analyst Tanya Atalay, global ferro-chrome production in the second quarter of 2024 surged 12.4% quarter-on-quarter and 23% year-on-year, contributing to a 15% year-on-year increase for the first half of 2024, reaching 9.1 million tons. This rise was primarily fueled by higher production of high-carbon and low-carbon ferro-chrome, while medium-carbon output declined.

China and Kazakhstan emerged as the main drivers of increased production:

China expanded its ferro-chrome capacity significantly, contributing to global oversupply.

Kazakhstan leveraged low energy costs to gain a 3% increase in market share, reaching 20% of global production in the first half of 2024.

Conversely, India's market share dropped from 12% in 2023 to 8% in 2024. Meanwhile, African ferro-chrome production faced setbacks due to power shortages and high electricity costs, leading to a 5% decline in output. Despite this, South Africa maintained its dominance in global ferro-chrome exports, with a 58% share in the first half of 2024, albeit slightly down by 1% from the previous year.

Future Challenges and Price Outlook

While increased consumption in China and India bolstered demand for ferro-chrome in 2024, slowing economic growth in China is projected to reduce consumption in 2025. Meanwhile, intensified competition from Kazakh and Indonesian producers is expected to further pressure prices.

Indonesia has significantly ramped up its production, achieving a 25% growth in 2024 and reducing its reliance on imports. This expansion aligns with China's increased capacity, also projected to grow by 25% in 2024. However, global production growth outside these regions remains modest at 11%, primarily driven by India.

Market participants at the ICDA conference expect ferro-chrome prices to continue trending downward due to the supply surplus. Many believe the market has yet to reach its price floor, as the industry adjusts to post-COVID normalization and increasing competition.

Acute Tungsten Shortage Drives Record Prices Across Global Supply Chains

Tungsten

The acute tungsten shortage is pushing global tungsten prices to record highs in 2026. Supply remains extremely tight across concentrate, APT, and downstream products. Low inventories and restricted Chinese export licences are worsening the squeeze. As a result, the acute tungsten shortage is becoming one of the most severe specialty metals disruptions in the market.

The current problem starts at the raw material level. Global production of tungsten concentrates has declined, while available western supply remains far below demand. Market participants now describe an estimated shortfall of around 13,000t of contained tungsten in the western market. Therefore, the acute tungsten shortage is no longer a regional issue. It is a structural supply crisis.

Pricing shows how quickly the market has tightened. Tungsten concentrate prices in Rotterdam surged to record levels in late January. European APT prices also climbed sharply as concentrate costs and export restrictions combined. Consequently, global tungsten prices are rising across the entire value chain.

Chinese Supply Constraints Are Tightening the Tungsten Concentrate Shortage

Chinese supply constraints remain the core driver of the tungsten concentrate shortage. China produces about 80pc of global tungsten supply and still dominates export availability. However, domestic ore shortages have intensified after mine shutdowns and weak new project development. Meanwhile, China’s 2025 mining quota fell from the previous year.

Trade data reinforces that tightening pattern. Chinese exports of tungsten concentrate declined sharply in 2025, while Chinese imports rose strongly. That means even China is pulling in more raw material to support its own processing base. As a result, less material is reaching overseas buyers.

APT export licences have added another bottleneck. Western customers may secure limited licences, but actual shipment still depends on concentrate availability. That creates a second layer of uncertainty on top of already weak feedstock supply. Therefore, the tungsten concentrate shortage is now feeding directly into delayed APT deliveries and higher prices.

Consumers are also paying much more for feedstock. Payables for concentrate have risen sharply as buyers compete for scarce supply. That shift reflects a market where sellers hold stronger leverage and buyers have fewer alternatives. Consequently, procurement conditions are becoming more difficult even for experienced consumers.

Japan and Europe Face Growing Pressure as Recycling Lags Demand

Japan and Europe are now feeling the full pressure of the acute tungsten shortage. Europe faces critically tight APT availability because it depends heavily on Chinese supply and licensing. Japan faces similar pressure after new Chinese restrictions on dual-use exports added more uncertainty. Therefore, both regions are competing harder for a smaller pool of material.

Japan’s position is especially sensitive. The country has no domestic tungsten mining base and depends heavily on imported tungsten products. Buyers are now seeking tungsten-containing scrap, but that market is also tight. As a result, recycling cannot yet solve the immediate supply problem.

Recycling capacity may grow, but it will take time. Japan is expanding tungsten recycling capability in response to lower Chinese exports. However, significant new output will not arrive quickly. Meanwhile, downstream consumers still need metal today, not years from now.

This means the market will likely remain strained for some time. Concentrate shortages, limited export licences, and weak scrap availability are all reinforcing one another. Therefore, the acute tungsten shortage is likely to keep global tungsten prices elevated unless primary supply improves materially.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tungsten is now showing how vulnerable specialty metal supply chains become when one country dominates both mining and exports. This market is not just tight. It is structurally exposed. Unless new western supply or faster recycling emerges, tungsten buyers may face prolonged price pressure and continued allocation risk.

Trade Measures to Dominate Steel Industry in 2025: Focus on Imports and Global Overcapacity

China Steel Factory

Trade protection measures have been the focal point of the global steel industry throughout 2024, with little indication of this trend slowing down in 2025. Steel producers, industry associations, and governments worldwide are increasingly advocating for stronger import barriers to safeguard domestic markets and improve the competitiveness of their industries. In particular, European steel mills have been at the forefront of this movement, calling for more robust action to combat what they view as unfair imports and growing overcapacity in the global market.

European Steel Industry Pushes for Stronger Import Protection

Eurofer, the industry association for European steel manufacturers, has been particularly vocal about the need for stronger trade defence instruments. The association has urged the European Union to implement short-term emergency measures, including import tariffication, to curb the influx of low-cost steel products. Eurofer's stance has been largely driven by the EU’s ambitious decarbonisation goals, with the bloc committing billions of euros in investment. Steel producers argue that the EU's current measures are insufficient, particularly in light of increasing steel imports from countries with lower production costs and fewer environmental regulations.

Significant progress has already been made, with Eurofer helping secure changes to the EU’s safeguard system for key products like hot-rolled coils (HRC) and wire rods. Additionally, the EU anti-dumping investigation targeting several HRC suppliers has gained traction, and further investigations are planned on downstream steel products. As European steel suppliers continue to collect evidence of unfair trade practices, more scrutiny is expected on countries like China, India, and Vietnam.

The Impact of Global Overcapacity and Chinese Steel Exports

The issue of global steel overcapacity has also been a major concern. The OECD has raised alarms about the growing steel production capacity, projecting a 158 million tonnes per year increase in global capacity between 2024 and 2026. This expansion, however, comes at a time when global steel demand remains uncertain. Despite this, steel exports from non-OECD countries have been recovering since 2023, particularly from China, whose steel exports surged by 22.6% from January to November 2024.

China has also been exporting record volumes of semi-finished steel, despite the country’s preference for exporting higher-value products. As China continues to ramp up exports, it has attracted the attention of both European and global policymakers, leading to new protectionist measures targeting Chinese steel. This includes potential investigations and pending duties on Chinese steel, which could affect up to 15 million tonnes per year of exports.

Countries like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia are also seeing increases in steel exports, contributing to the global capacity glut. Turkey, a major market for Chinese steel, has already imposed duties on imports from China, India, Russia, and Japan in response to the increasing influx of steel from these regions. The EU is similarly considering the inclusion of Indonesia in its safeguard measures due to the country’s rising steel exports to Europe. From July to October 2024, Indonesia exported 494,650 tonnes of HRC to the EU, surpassing the previous half-year period, a trend that is expected to continue.

Investigations and Measures Targeting Global Steel Exporters

The growing export volumes from India and Vietnam, along with the rise in Indonesia’s exports to Europe, have prompted investigations into dumping practices in these countries. The EU has already initiated anti-dumping investigations on steel products from Egypt, Japan, India, and Vietnam, with the preliminary results of these investigations expected in March 2025. If these investigations lead to findings of unfair trade practices, retroactive duties could be applied, further tightening global trade conditions.

In response, producers are gearing up for a potential wave of new safeguard measures and anti-dumping duties. Countries that are impacted by these measures may look to retaliate, creating a complex global trade landscape for steel. As trade protectionism increases, the global steel market is expected to undergo significant shifts in the coming years.

Honda EV Sales Target Revision Prioritizes Hybrid Electric Vehicles by 2030

Honda EV

Honda EV sales target underwent significant downward revision as the Japanese automaker adjusted its 2030 global electric vehicle strategy amid market uncertainty. Honda EV sales target now falls below 30% of total vehicle sales by 2030, representing a strategic shift toward hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) as the primary powertrain in the company's energy transition approach, reflecting broader industry challenges from slowing EV adoption and shifting regulatory environments.

Strategic Pivot Toward Hybrid Technology Dominance

Honda EV sales target revision accompanies ambitious hybrid vehicle expansion plans targeting 2.2 million HEV units within 3.6 million total annual vehicle sales by 2030. The automaker will launch 13 next-generation hybrid models globally over four years beginning in 2027, demonstrating substantial commitment to hybrid technology advancement. This strategic pivot addresses market realities including slowing EV demand, evolving regulations, and changing trade policies affecting electrification timelines.

Meanwhile, Honda plans significant hybrid system enhancements to improve range and efficiency while reducing costs by over 30% by 2028 compared to current models. These improvements target competitive positioning against both traditional internal combustion engines and full battery electric vehicles. The cost reduction strategy enables broader hybrid adoption across Honda's global vehicle lineup while maintaining profitability margins.

HONDA SALOON

Regional Market Adaptation Drives Technology Development

However, Honda's approach varies significantly across key regional markets reflecting local demand patterns and regulatory requirements. In North America, the company will develop specialized hybrid systems for large vehicles combining powerful performance with high efficiency for spacious models launching in the latter 2020s. This regional focus addresses American consumer preferences for larger vehicles while meeting efficiency standards.

Therefore, China market strategy involves partnerships with local technology providers including autonomous technology startup Momenta for next-generation Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) development. All future Honda models sold in China will feature locally-adapted ADAS technology addressing specific regional driving conditions and regulatory requirements. This localization approach demonstrates Honda's commitment to market-specific technology solutions.

Advanced Technology Integration Supports Competitive Positioning

Furthermore, Honda will develop next-generation ADAS for high-end EVs and HEVs launching in North America and Japan by 2027. These advanced systems represent critical differentiators in increasingly competitive automotive markets where autonomous capabilities influence consumer purchasing decisions. The technology integration spans both electric and hybrid powertrains, maintaining Honda's competitive positioning across multiple vehicle categories.

As a result, Honda's revised strategy reflects pragmatic adaptation to evolving automotive market dynamics while maintaining technological leadership across electrification spectrum. The emphasis on hybrid technology provides flexibility during uncertain transition periods while supporting regulatory compliance and consumer acceptance. This balanced approach positions Honda advantageously for various electrification scenarios across global markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Honda's strategic recalibration toward hybrid vehicles reflects broader automotive industry recognition that the transition to full electrification may proceed more gradually than initially anticipated, particularly as infrastructure limitations and consumer adoption patterns create market headwinds. The company's focus on cost reduction and regional adaptation demonstrates sophisticated understanding of diverse global market requirements, positioning Honda to capitalize on hybrid technology's bridging role during extended electrification timelines.

BYD Achieves Record-High EV Production and Sales in 2024, Cementing Market Dominance

BYD

China’s leading new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturer, BYD, has set a new industry benchmark by exceeding 4 million units in EV production and sales in 2024. With a 41% year-on-year growth, BYD continues to dominate the global NEV market, reinforcing its commitment to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).

BYD’s Historic NEV Production and Sales Growth

BYD’s total NEV production for 2024 reached 4.304 million units, marking a 41% increase from 2023. Notably, the company completely ceased production of gasoline-powered vehicles in March 2022, focusing entirely on electric mobility.

• December 2024 Production: 466,441 units, a 41% increase from the previous year.

• BEVs: 189,759 units (+7.6% YoY)
• PHEVs: 270,960 units (more than double YoY)

• Total 2024 Sales: 4.272 million units, accounting for 100% of BYD’s vehicle sales.

• December Sales: 514,809 units (+41% YoY)
• BEV Sales: 207,734 units (+8.9% YoY)
• PHEV Sales: 301,706 units (more than double YoY)

These figures place BYD at the forefront of China’s rapidly expanding NEV industry, which produced 11.345 million units between January and November 2024—a 35% increase compared to the previous year. Industry experts forecast that China’s total NEV sales will surpass 13 million units in 2024, further solidifying the country’s leadership in EV adoption.

BYD’s Power Battery Expansion and Market Position

In addition to its dominance in the EV sector, BYD is also a major player in power and energy storage batteries. The company installed 23.495GWh of power batteries in December and 194.705GWh throughout 2024—a 29% year-on-year increase.

BYD ranks second among China’s top power battery manufacturers:

1. CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology): 211.7GWh (45% market share)
2. BYD: 117.5GWh (25% market share)
3. CALB: 32.3GWh (7% market share)

These figures indicate BYD’s growing influence in the global lithium battery market, positioning it as a formidable competitor to CATL in the race for next-generation energy storage solutions.

Conclusion

BYD’s record-breaking EV production and sales in 2024 underscore its dominance in China’s NEV and battery industries. With strong growth in both BEV and PHEV sales, the company is well-positioned to expand its global market share. As China’s NEV production surpasses 13 million units in 2024, BYD’s continued investment in power batteries and energy storage will further reinforce its standing as a global EV leader.

Clean Energy Technology Market Set to Outgrow Oil by 2035

Clean energy

Clean energy technology market growth is accelerating across every major IEA scenario, even as manufacturing investment slows from recent peaks. The global market for electric vehicles, batteries, solar modules, wind turbines, heat pumps, electrolysers, zero-emissions trucks, and alternative propulsion ships reached almost $1.2 trillion in 2025.

The IEA said the clean energy technology market could reach around $2 trillion by 2035 under current policies and about $3 trillion under stated policies. In every scenario, its 2035 value exceeds the size of the global oil market in 2025.

This shift shows that clean energy is no longer a niche transition segment. It is becoming a core industrial market tied to manufacturing competitiveness, energy security, power infrastructure, and critical minerals demand.

Manufacturing Investment Slows as Capacity Surplus Builds

Clean energy technology manufacturing investment has started to cool after a major expansion wave. Global investment in key clean energy manufacturing fell from $220 billion in 2023 to just below $200 billion in 2024, with a further gentle decline expected through 2025.

The slowdown partly reflects surplus production capacity in solar modules and batteries. This creates pressure on margins, intensifies trade disputes, and pushes governments to protect domestic industries from foreign competition.

However, deployment continues to rise across all IEA scenarios. This means the next bottleneck may not be factory construction alone, but the infrastructure needed to absorb clean energy technologies at scale.

Grids and Supply Chain Resilience Become the Critical Battleground

Power grids are becoming one of the most important enabling sectors for clean energy growth. The IEA estimated investment in enabling infrastructure, mostly grids, at nearly $430 billion in 2025.

Low-emissions fuels also gained industrial relevance. Investment in low-emissions fuel production plants reached about $30 billion in 2025, matching expected investment in oil refineries.

The biggest strategic risk remains geographic concentration. China still holds the largest share of clean energy manufacturing, and the IEA warned that every major supply chain has at least one weak link where less than a quarter of demand could be met without the largest producer.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The clean energy technology market is now large enough to reshape global metals, manufacturing, and trade policy. The next decade will reward countries that can build resilient supply chains for batteries, grids, solar, wind, and critical minerals without relying on a single manufacturing hub.

Fastmarkets Ferroalloys Asia 2025 Positions Bangkok as Key Global Hub for Ferroalloy Trade

Fastmarkets Ferroalloys Asia 2025

India, China, and South Korea Showcase Market Strength as Global Players Tackle Tariffs and Sustainability Goals

The Fastmarkets Ferroalloys Asia Conference 2025 concluded in Bangkok with more than 800 global industry professionals in attendance. Held from April 8–10, this flagship event solidified its role as Asia’s largest ferroalloy trading platform, focusing on trade flows, tariffs, sustainability, and supply chain strategies.

This year’s conference drew key stakeholders from across the ferroalloy value chain. Attendees participated in active deal-making, high-level panels, and targeted networking—further reinforcing Asia’s position as the world’s dominant ferroalloy market.

Indian and Chinese Firms Expand Regional Influence Amid Tariff Pressures

Ferroalloy giants from India and China made a strong statement at the event. Companies such as BFCL, INDIANO, MORTX, BERRY ALLOYS, MTALX, and CCMA attended as sponsors. Their presence underlined a strategic shift to deepen market penetration in Asia while mitigating challenges from recent U.S. tariff policies.

By sponsoring the event, these companies emphasized regional alliances and adaptability to global trade shifts. With India and China playing leading roles in global ferroalloy production and exports, their efforts at Fastmarkets Asia 2025 signal a robust push for market resilience and growth.

Producing Ferro-Titanium in Korea

South Korea’s Dong-A Special Metal stood out by announcing its expansion in Ferro-Titanium and Ferro-Titanium Powder production. The company uses eco-friendly pretreatment methods to manufacture high-quality products, gaining attention as one of Korea’s few domestic Ferro-Titanium producers.

This development strengthens Korea’s presence in specialty ferroalloys and aligns with rising global demand for lightweight, corrosion-resistant alloys in aerospace and defense sectors.

Focus on Asia’s Role in a Changing Global Alloy Market

The conference underscored Asia’s growing dominance in ferroalloys, especially through China and India. Fastmarkets emphasized this trend, with expert panels addressing topics like supply chain optimization, carbon reduction, and long-term demand outlook. As trade dynamics evolve, Asia is becoming the central pivot for pricing and policy trends in the ferroalloy industry.

TheMetalnomist continues to track how international conferences like these shape global metal market strategies and investment priorities.

Refined Zinc Market Surplus Forecast for 2025 Amid Rising Supply

ILZSG

The global refined zinc market surplus is projected to reach 93,000 tonnes in 2025, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). This forecast comes as supply growth outpaces a modest recovery in global demand, particularly in China, the world's largest zinc consumer.

Refined Zinc Demand Rebounds Slightly

Global demand for refined zinc is expected to rise by 1% to 13.64 million tonnes in 2025. China is projected to see a 0.9% increase, following a 1.9% decline in 2024. Other key markets such as Brazil, India, and Turkey are also forecast to grow, while South Korea will likely see a decline. However, ongoing global economic uncertainty, especially surrounding U.S. trade policy, could weigh on zinc consumption.

Zinc Supply Rises on Mine and Smelter Recovery

Meanwhile, global mine production is forecast to increase by 4.3% to 12.43 million tonnes in 2025. Output will rise in Australia, China, Mexico, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Peru. Europe is also expected to rebound, with an 18.3% production increase led by Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia’s Ozernoye mine, and Ireland’s Tara mine. On the refined metal side, global output is projected to climb 1.8% to 13.73 million tonnes. This growth is supported by China and Norway, where Boliden expanded capacity at its Odda smelter by 150,000 tonnes annually.

However, recent closures at Glencore’s Portovesme smelter in Italy and Toho Zinc’s Anakka operation in Japan will partly offset these gains.

Refined Lead Market Also Shifts into Surplus

In addition to zinc, the ILZSG forecasts a surplus in the global lead market. Refined lead supply is expected to exceed demand by 82,000 tonnes in 2025. Demand is projected to rise by 1.5% to 13.19 million tonnes, while output will grow by 1.9% to 13.27 million tonnes, mainly from China, India, Mexico, and the United States.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The anticipated refined zinc market surplus reflects an ongoing shift in global base metal dynamics. Despite moderate demand recovery, rising output from mines and smelters—particularly in Asia and Europe—could place downward pressure on prices unless macroeconomic conditions improve significantly.

China Expands Export Controls on Critical Minerals Amid Trade Tensions

China Critical Minerals

New Restrictions on Tungsten, Indium, and Other Critical Metals

China has intensified its trade strategies by imposing new export controls on additional critical minerals. This move is seen as a countermeasure against higher tariffs recently imposed by the United States. The newly restricted materials include various metals and compounds of tungsten, indium, tellurium, bismuth, and molybdenum. The export restrictions came into effect on February 4, as announced by China’s Ministry of Commerce.

Impact on Global Supply Chains

This expansion of export controls follows the introduction of similar measures in 2023-24, which included key materials such as gallium, germanium, graphite, and antimony. With the recent addition, the scope now covers more crucial metals used in various industries globally. According to industry estimates, China holds a dominant share of the global supply for metals like tungsten and bismuth. For instance, it is the world’s largest producer and exporter of tungsten, controlling nearly 80% of the global market. Similarly, China is responsible for 70-80% of the world's bismuth supply, which further underscores its influential role in the global supply chain.

The new export controls will allow China greater flexibility in deciding which countries can receive these critical minerals. Market participants have indicated that the export restrictions could drive up global prices, especially for tungsten and bismuth, due to China's near-monopoly on these materials. This is likely to cause disruptions for industries that rely heavily on these metals, from electronics to energy production.

Global Repercussions and Market Shifts

The broader implications of these controls may be felt across various sectors. As China continues to tighten its grip on critical mineral exports, consumers outside of China will face challenges in securing alternative sources of supply. However, some experts suggest that this move might spur increased investments in local production capabilities in non-China markets, as countries seek to reduce their dependence on Chinese supplies.

In the short term, global markets will likely experience higher prices for the affected minerals, particularly as exporters must follow a stringent verification process before shipping these critical materials. The procedural delays and uncertainty about permitted shipments will add to the volatility of the market.

Conclusion: Strategic Maneuver in Global Trade

China's latest export controls reflect a growing trend of resource nationalism, where nations leverage their dominance in critical industries to secure economic and political advantages. These measures come amidst heightened trade tensions, particularly with the United States, and are designed to protect China’s national security and economic interests. As the global demand for these minerals continues to rise, China’s role in the critical metals supply chain remains pivotal, making it essential for businesses worldwide to monitor these developments closely.

Tronox Idles Dutch TiO₂ Plant Amid Global Market Pressures

Tronox

Company Targets Cost Optimization as Chinese Competition Reshapes Titanium Dioxide Industry

Tronox Shuts Down Botlek Facility in Strategic Response to Market Conditions

Tronox has decided to idle its 90,000-ton-per-year titanium dioxide (TiO₂) plant in Botlek, the Netherlands. The shutdown began on March 6 due to an outage at the plant's chlorine supplier. Rather than restarting the facility, Tronox will reallocate production to its other global sites.

This move comes as part of a broader strategic asset review. The review addresses sustained pressure from Chinese overcapacity and global market challenges that have persisted for over two years. CEO John D. Romano emphasized that the decision aligns with Tronox's goal of optimizing operations and reducing manufacturing costs.

Cost Savings and Global Output Rebalancing

Idling the Dutch plant will result in non-cash write-down costs of $55 million to $65 million. However, Tronox anticipates annual cost savings exceeding $30 million beginning in 2026. These gains are in addition to previously identified savings of up to $175 million by the end of that year.

Despite the plant closure, Tronox remains confident about the demand outlook. The company expects higher TiO₂ sales volumes in 2025, especially in the second half. In Q4 2024, Tronox posted a 3% year-on-year increase in TiO₂ revenue, reaching $533 million. This growth was driven by a 4% rise in shipment volumes, offset slightly by a 1% dip in average selling prices.

Global Presence Ensures Supply Continuity

Tronox will continue to serve customers from its remaining eight TiO₂ pigment facilities. These plants are located across the US, Australia, South Africa, Brazil, and the UK. The company maintains that this shift will not impact its ability to meet customer demand, thanks to its diversified and global production footprint.

As the TiO₂ market evolves, Tronox’s latest decision signals a proactive effort to remain competitive, agile, and cost-efficient amid ongoing structural shifts in global pigment supply dynamics.

Nickel Prices Drop Amid US 'Liberation Day' Tariffs

Nickel

Global Market Faces Recession Fears as Tariffs Hit Nickel Prices

Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) plunged to their lowest levels since October 2020, following the announcement of the US "liberation day" tariffs. These tariffs, introduced on April 2, were more substantial than anticipated, sending shockwaves throughout the base metals markets. As fears of a global recession intensified, the broader base metals, equities, and commodities markets experienced a sharp decline.

The US government imposed a 10% tariff on all trading partner countries effective April 5. Additionally, higher tariffs were set for countries with significant trade deficits with the US, scheduled to take effect from April 9. The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs, along with their broader impact, has contributed to confusion and panic selling among traders.

Uncertainty Fuels Market Turmoil

The nickel market has been particularly volatile in the wake of these developments. The initial drop in nickel prices following the announcement of the tariffs was relatively modest at 1%. However, prices plunged further, losing 3.6% on April 4 and a significant 4.9% on April 5, dropping to $14,550 per ton. This sharp decline can be attributed to China's retaliatory tariffs, which placed a 34% duty on US exports.

Nickel prices have now fallen to their lowest point since October 2020, and the situation remains dire for many producers. Reports suggest that more than three-quarters of refined nickel production is currently operating at a loss, given the prevailing market conditions. Additionally, class 1 nickel production costs in Indonesia, a key supplier, are reported to exceed $15,000 per ton, indicating that current nickel prices are unsustainable for many producers.

Tariff Confusion Exacerbates Nickel Sell-Off

The sell-off in nickel was further aggravated by the confusion surrounding the application of the tariffs. Market participants were uncertain whether LME-grade nickel would be exempt from the new tariffs. Official documents confirmed that a baseline 10% tariff would not apply to HS Code 7508, which pertains to "Other Articles of Nickel." However, the critical HS Code 7502, which covers "unwrought nickel" used for LME-deliverable class 1 nickel, did not receive similar exemption.

Some traders have already begun moving nickel shipments out of the US to avoid the uncertainty, with large European trading groups indicating that they are rerouting cargoes to Rotterdam, UK. Meanwhile, nickel imports into the US from Canada, the country's main supplier, have continued to flow without tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, the future of this arrangement remains unclear, as the upcoming April 9 tariff changes could subject Canada to the same 10% tariff as other countries with trade deficits.

Outlook for Nickel Producers and the Market

The nickel market remains in a precarious situation. With continued confusion around the tariff details and recession concerns gripping major economies, it’s unclear how long the current market conditions will last. As more tariff structures are implemented and market players react to these changes, the global nickel supply chain faces increasing uncertainty.