Clean Energy Technology Market Set to Outgrow Oil by 2035

Clean energy

Clean energy technology market growth is accelerating across every major IEA scenario, even as manufacturing investment slows from recent peaks. The global market for electric vehicles, batteries, solar modules, wind turbines, heat pumps, electrolysers, zero-emissions trucks, and alternative propulsion ships reached almost $1.2 trillion in 2025.

The IEA said the clean energy technology market could reach around $2 trillion by 2035 under current policies and about $3 trillion under stated policies. In every scenario, its 2035 value exceeds the size of the global oil market in 2025.

This shift shows that clean energy is no longer a niche transition segment. It is becoming a core industrial market tied to manufacturing competitiveness, energy security, power infrastructure, and critical minerals demand.

Manufacturing Investment Slows as Capacity Surplus Builds

Clean energy technology manufacturing investment has started to cool after a major expansion wave. Global investment in key clean energy manufacturing fell from $220 billion in 2023 to just below $200 billion in 2024, with a further gentle decline expected through 2025.

The slowdown partly reflects surplus production capacity in solar modules and batteries. This creates pressure on margins, intensifies trade disputes, and pushes governments to protect domestic industries from foreign competition.

However, deployment continues to rise across all IEA scenarios. This means the next bottleneck may not be factory construction alone, but the infrastructure needed to absorb clean energy technologies at scale.

Grids and Supply Chain Resilience Become the Critical Battleground

Power grids are becoming one of the most important enabling sectors for clean energy growth. The IEA estimated investment in enabling infrastructure, mostly grids, at nearly $430 billion in 2025.

Low-emissions fuels also gained industrial relevance. Investment in low-emissions fuel production plants reached about $30 billion in 2025, matching expected investment in oil refineries.

The biggest strategic risk remains geographic concentration. China still holds the largest share of clean energy manufacturing, and the IEA warned that every major supply chain has at least one weak link where less than a quarter of demand could be met without the largest producer.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The clean energy technology market is now large enough to reshape global metals, manufacturing, and trade policy. The next decade will reward countries that can build resilient supply chains for batteries, grids, solar, wind, and critical minerals without relying on a single manufacturing hub.

EU ETS Clean Energy Booster Signals Shift Toward Industrial Energy Relief

EU ETS

EU ETS clean energy booster plans could reshape Europe’s climate finance and industrial competitiveness strategy. The European Commission will propose a €30 billion clean energy investment package financed by 400 million emissions trading system allowances.

The proposal comes as the EU prepares a wider ETS review. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the review will set a more realistic path for phasing out allowances and extend free allocations for industry beyond 2035.

The EU ETS clean energy booster reflects a political adjustment in Europe’s decarbonisation model. Brussels still wants emissions reduction, but it is also responding to energy cost pressure on manufacturers, metals producers, chemical companies, and other energy-intensive sectors.

ETS Review Balances Carbon Pricing With Industrial Competitiveness

The ETS has reduced gas consumption and strengthened Europe’s carbon market framework. However, high energy prices, fossil fuel volatility, and the merit order power pricing system have exposed major cost risks for European industry.

The planned review will include short-term measures to update ETS benchmarks for free allocations. It will also strengthen the Market Stability Reserve to reduce carbon price volatility.

Extending free allocations beyond 2035 is significant for heavy industry. Steel, aluminium, cement, chemicals, fertilizers, and refining all face pressure from carbon costs, power prices, and global competition from regions with lower energy and compliance costs.

Clean Energy Funding Targets Power Costs and Supply Security

The EU ETS clean energy booster is designed to accelerate investment in cleaner energy systems while protecting industrial users from excessive cost pressure. Member states can already use state aid to offset energy cost increases, while the Commission is working on national schemes to reduce fuel cost impacts on power generation.

The Commission is also considering lower grid charges for energy-intensive industries and a tax structure that makes electricity more competitive than fossil fuels. These steps matter because electrification only works if industrial power remains affordable and reliable.

The maritime sector will also feature in the ETS review, with Brussels seeking a more level playing field. At the same time, European leaders remain focused on physical energy security, including oil, gas, fertilizers, and maritime transit risks linked to geopolitical instability.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU ETS clean energy booster shows that Europe is recalibrating climate policy around industrial survival. Carbon pricing will remain central, but the next phase will depend on whether Brussels can cut emissions without pushing energy-intensive production offshore.

Global Energy Investment to Reach $3.3 Trillion in 2025, Led by Clean Energy

IEA(International_Energy_Agency)

Clean Energy Spending Doubles Fossil Fuel Investment

Global energy investment is forecast to hit a record $3.3 trillion in 2025, with two-thirds allocated to clean energy technologies, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This marks a 2% real-term increase from 2024, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.

The IEA expects $2.2 trillion to be invested in renewables, nuclear power, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, energy efficiency, and electrification. In comparison, fossil fuel investment is projected at $1.1 trillion. The agency attributes the surge in clean energy spending to emission reduction goals, industrial policy incentives, energy security concerns, and the competitiveness of electricity-based solutions.

Energy security remains a primary driver of investment growth. While some investors are cautious about new project approvals, the IEA notes minimal disruption to existing developments.

Electricity Sector Investment Surges While Fossil Fuels Decline

The “age of electricity” is shaping global capital flows, with the power sector expected to attract $1.5 trillion in 2025. Solar power will lead the charge, drawing $450 billion alone. However, grid investment, while reaching a record $400 billion, is struggling to keep pace with soaring power demand.

Conversely, fossil fuel supply investment is expected to fall 2% — the first drop since 2020. Upstream oil spending will decline 6% to about $420 billion, while gas investment will also retreat amid price drops, higher operating costs, tariffs, and oversupply concerns. Coal investment will continue to grow, though at a slower 4% annual rate, driven largely by China and India.

Regional Shifts and Policy Impacts

China remains the largest global energy investor, with its share of clean energy investment rising from 25% a decade ago to nearly one-third today. In the US, investment in renewables and low-emission fuels is set to plateau as supportive policies wane. Meanwhile, oil and gas spending is increasingly concentrated in resource-rich Middle Eastern nations.

Spending on low-emissions fuels is projected to hit a record in 2025 but will stay below $30 billion, with projects vulnerable to policy uncertainty. The IEA warns that regional disparities in policy and market dynamics could influence the pace of the clean energy transition.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The IEA’s projection underscores the accelerating momentum of the clean energy transition, even amid economic headwinds. While record spending on renewables and electricity infrastructure marks progress, bottlenecks in grid expansion and regional policy uncertainties could challenge the pace of change. Investors and policymakers will need to address these gaps to secure long-term energy security and decarbonization goals.

Renewables Energy Security Message Shapes Cop 31 Climate Agenda

Renewables energy

Renewables energy security is becoming a central policy message ahead of the Cop 31 climate summit, as Turkey and Australia argue that fossil fuels no longer guarantee stable energy supply. The two countries said stronger decarbonisation, electrification and alternative energy sources are now essential to national resilience.

Turkey will host Cop 31 in Antalya, while Australia will lead climate negotiations. Both countries are preparing the summit against the backdrop of energy market disruption caused by the war in the Mideast Gulf and shipping interruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Renewables energy security is now being framed not only as a climate issue, but also as a sovereignty issue. Turkey’s environment minister Murat Kurum said countries should invest in clean energy sources, including renewables, hydrogen and ammonia, to support stable and independent development.

The message reflects a wider shift in energy policy. Fossil fuels once dominated energy security thinking because they offered high-density supply and established infrastructure. But recent geopolitical shocks have shown that oil, gas and coal supply chains can be exposed to sanctions, shipping blockages and regional conflict.

Fossil Fuel Risk Pushes Electrification Up the Policy Agenda

The Mideast Gulf energy crisis has strengthened the argument that fossil fuel dependence creates vulnerability. Supply routes can be disrupted, prices can spike and importing countries can quickly face inflation, industrial cost pressure and energy security concerns.

Australia’s climate and energy minister Chris Bowen said the crisis creates an opportunity to show that energy reliability, sovereignty and security can move together with strong decarbonisation. His message was clear: doubling down on fossil fuels is not the answer.

That argument gives renewables energy security a sharper industrial meaning. Wind and solar resources cannot be sanctioned in the same way as seaborne fossil fuels. They also reduce exposure to imported fuel prices once infrastructure is built.

Electrification will therefore become more important in the Cop 31 discussion. Germany has already pushed for a stronger debate on how countries can advance electrification before the summit.

This matters for metals and manufacturing. Electrification requires more copper, aluminium, electrical steel, rare earth magnets, batteries, power electronics, transformers, grid equipment and storage systems. The shift away from fossil fuels therefore increases demand for industrial materials that support clean power systems.

Hydrogen and ammonia also remain part of Turkey’s energy transition vision. These fuels could support hard-to-abate sectors, industrial heat, shipping, fertilisers and long-duration energy storage, but they require large amounts of renewable electricity and new infrastructure.

The policy direction is not only about replacing fuels. It is about rebuilding energy systems around grids, storage, clean molecules and domestic generation capacity.

Cop 31 Could Turn Energy Security Into a Decarbonisation Driver

Cop 31 is expected to revisit the global transition away from fossil fuels. Nearly 200 countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels at Cop 28 in 2023, while developed countries agreed at Cop 29 to provide $300bn/yr to developing countries by 2035.

Turkey is now urging countries to fulfil earlier commitments on finance and energy. Kurum also called on countries that have not submitted updated nationally determined contributions to do so.

This creates pressure before Cop 31. Around 43 countries still need to submit climate plans, according to Kurum. Without credible national plans, the global transition risks remaining a statement rather than an implementation programme.

Australia pointed to three processes already under way before Cop 31. These include the Belem roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels, the global implementation accelerator and the Belem Mission to 1.5°C.

The challenge will be coordination. Countries have already agreed on high-level climate direction, but implementation remains uneven. Clean energy investment, grid expansion, permitting, financing and critical mineral supply all need to move faster.

For resource markets, the message is clear. Renewables energy security will not reduce dependence on supply chains. It will shift dependence from fossil fuel flows toward metals, minerals, equipment and industrial manufacturing capacity.

That creates a new form of energy security risk. Countries that build renewable power but lack access to copper, rare earths, battery metals, transformers, power electronics or grid equipment may still face strategic exposure.

Cop 31 could therefore strengthen demand for policies that connect climate action with supply-chain resilience. Energy transition goals will require not only emissions targets, but also mineral security, manufacturing investment and infrastructure deployment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The renewables energy security argument marks a turning point in climate politics. The next energy security race will be fought through grids, storage, critical minerals and clean manufacturing capacity, not only through control of fossil fuel routes.

SECI to Invest ₹25 Billion in 200MW Solar and Battery Storage Projects in Madhya Pradesh

India SECI

India’s Solar Energy Corporation Expands Green Push With New Projects in Dhar and 1,000MWh Storage Facility

SECI Accelerates Renewable Energy Drive with Major Investment in Madhya Pradesh

India’s Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) has committed ₹25 billion ($286.5 million) to develop key renewable energy infrastructure in Madhya Pradesh. SECI signed an initial agreement with the state government to build a 200MW solar project in Dhar and a 1,000MWh battery energy storage system.

The investment falls under the Central Public Sector Undertaking (CPSU) scheme and will be executed in phases. SECI, which operates under India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, aims to strengthen the country’s clean energy capacity and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

Long-Term Clean Energy Commitment Supports India’s Energy Transition Goals

The 200MW solar plant is part of a broader 500MW agreement signed in 2023 with MP Power Management Company Limited (MPPMCL). Under this agreement, SECI will supply renewable electricity to Madhya Pradesh for 25 years, reinforcing long-term power stability through sustainable means.

By investing in solar power and energy storage, SECI continues to lead India's green energy movement. The dual focus on generation and storage aligns with national goals to improve grid reliability and boost clean energy adoption across sectors.

Battery Storage to Play Crucial Role in Energy Security

The planned 1,000MWh battery storage project marks a significant step toward ensuring round-the-clock renewable power availability. With India's energy demands rising, storage infrastructure is essential to integrate intermittent sources like solar into the national grid effectively.

SECI’s announcement confirms its commitment to supporting India’s decarbonization strategy while strengthening Madhya Pradesh’s role as a clean energy hub.

US Senate energy and tax bill threatens clean energy incentives

US Senate

The US Senate energy and tax bill is set to reshape the country’s energy landscape. Senate Republicans introduced measures that slash clean energy tax credits, expand fossil fuel leasing, and extend trillions in tax cuts. The vote could pass as early as today, with deep consequences for renewable investors. The US Senate energy and tax bill also introduces excise taxes on wind and solar projects sourcing equipment from "prohibited foreign entities."

Major cuts to clean energy programs

The bill eliminates most climate provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act, including $7,500 EV tax credits and wind-solar incentives. Renewable industry leaders warn of mass job losses and halted investment. Meanwhile, biofuels, nuclear, and geothermal maintain partial support under adjusted credit structures. The new hydrogen credit deadline is January 2028.

Fossil fuels gain momentum

Oil and gas benefit heavily from the bill. It mandates Gulf of Mexico lease sales, reduces royalty rates, and restores tax deductions worth hundreds of millions. As a result, domestic drilling will accelerate. President Trump has demanded Congress finalize the bill before 4 July, framing it as a cornerstone of US energy independence.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The bill represents a decisive shift toward fossil fuel prioritization at the expense of renewables. For metals and critical minerals investors, reduced clean energy incentives may slow downstream demand, but fossil fuel expansion could sustain industrial inputs tied to oil and gas infrastructure.

India and Saudi Arabia Forge Partnership in Critical Mineral Sector

the Future Minerals Forum (FMF)

India and Saudi Arabia have entered into an agreement to enhance cooperation in the critical mineral sector. The two countries aim to collaborate on mineral exploration, sustainable extraction, and the development of resilient supply chains. This partnership is poised to play a significant role in securing essential minerals for clean energy and high-tech industries.

Strengthening Mineral Supply Chains and Reducing Import Dependency

The agreement was formalized during a meeting between India's Union Minister of Coal and Mines, G. Kishan Reddy, and Saudi Arabia's Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources, Bandar Ibrahim Alkhorayef, in New Delhi on February 4. The primary focus of the meeting was to establish international partnerships aimed at mineral security and sustainable development. This initiative aligns with India's National Critical Minerals Mission (NCMM), which seeks to secure a steady supply of critical minerals for various industries.

The discussions emphasized creating reliable and secure supply chains for minerals to reduce import dependency. Both nations recognized the importance of this cooperation in securing minerals necessary for the global energy transition and clean energy systems.

Promoting Domestic and International Collaboration in Mineral Extraction

In addition to strengthening supply chains, the dialogue also focused on advancing both domestic and international collaborations. The goal is to ensure a continuous supply of critical minerals, especially for clean energy technologies and high-tech industries. Furthermore, India and Saudi Arabia agreed to cooperate in adopting advanced mining technologies and innovations that promote sustainable mineral exploration and extraction.

This partnership also builds upon India’s involvement in the Future Minerals Forum (FMF) in Riyadh in 2025. India has shown a strong commitment to securing critical minerals, which are vital for the transition to clean energy and the future of global energy systems.

India’s Commitment to Sustainable Development

At the FMF event, Minister Reddy highlighted India's ongoing efforts to secure the critical minerals needed for energy transition and clean energy initiatives. India is focused on fostering international cooperation to meet the growing demand for these minerals, which are integral to advancing technologies that support clean energy, electric vehicles, and high-tech industries.

US Pressure on the IEA Signals a Deeper Fight Over Net Zero and Energy Security

US, Chris Wright

US pressure on the IEA is now openly reshaping the global energy policy debate. US energy secretary Chris Wright said Washington will use all available pressure to push the IEA away from net zero work. He wants the agency to return to a narrower focus on energy security. As a result, US pressure on the IEA has become a major political challenge to the agency’s current direction.

This matters because the IEA is no longer only an oil security institution. Under Fatih Birol, it expanded into clean energy, climate analysis, and transition policy. The US now argues that this shift has gone too far. Therefore, the fight over the IEA net zero agenda is also a fight over the agency’s identity.

The disagreement reflects a wider split between Washington and much of Europe. Wright said European climate choices have made energy more expensive and weakened industrial competitiveness. He contrasted that with a US strategy of energy addition. Consequently, the energy security debate is now closely tied to industrial policy and global competitiveness.

The IEA Net Zero Agenda Is Facing Direct Political Resistance

The IEA net zero agenda is facing one of its clearest political confrontations in years. Wright argued that the agency assumes European climate policy will become a global template. He said that assumption is unrealistic. As a result, US pressure on the IEA is challenging the foundation of its transition-focused messaging.

The IEA has pushed back by emphasizing data and credibility. Birol said energy security remains the agency’s first priority, while clean technology adoption comes second. That response shows the IEA is trying to hold both positions at once. However, the US appears to want a much sharper shift away from climate-oriented work.

This conflict matters because the US is not a peripheral member. It is a founding member and a major funder of the agency. Therefore, US pressure on the IEA carries institutional weight, not just rhetorical force. If Washington sustains this campaign, the agency may face a more difficult balance between member priorities.

Energy Security Debate Now Sits at the Center of Global Energy Policy

Energy security debate is now overtaking climate consensus as the main organizing theme in many capitals. Governments increasingly worry about affordability, industrial resilience, and strategic supply. That change gives more force to the US argument, even if many countries still support transition policy. As a result, global energy policy is entering a more contested phase.

Europe remains central to that struggle. Wright criticized the EU for making energy expensive and driving energy-intensive manufacturing abroad. At the same time, Europe continues to frame diversification and clean energy as part of its own security strategy. Meanwhile, the gap between those positions is widening rather than narrowing.

The broader implication is clear. The next energy policy battle may not be about whether transition happens. It may be about who controls its pace, language, and institutional framework. Consequently, US pressure on the IEA could shape more than one agency. It could influence the tone of global energy governance itself.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This dispute matters because it shows the energy transition is no longer a purely technical discussion. It is now a power struggle over institutions, industry, and strategic priorities. If the US keeps pressing this line, the IEA may become a central battleground in the future of global energy policy.

EU Russian Energy Imports Ban Holds Firm Despite New Energy Crisis

EU Russian Energy

EU Russian energy imports will not return under the European Commission’s current policy direction, even as the bloc faces renewed energy pressure from the Middle East conflict. EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen said Brussels will continue phasing out Russian gas and still plans to cut Russian oil imports.

EU Russian energy imports have become a strategic red line for Brussels. The Commission argues that returning to Russian supply would recreate the dependency that exposed Europe after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

EU Russian energy imports are again being debated because higher oil and gas costs are hitting parts of the European economy. However, Brussels is treating the current disruption as a reason to accelerate energy diversification, not reopen Russian supply channels.

The position links energy security directly to industrial resilience. Europe now wants less exposure to both Russian energy and Middle East supply disruption, while shifting more demand toward domestic, renewable and alternative energy systems.

Russian Oil Phase-Out Remains Politically Sensitive

The Commission has not yet presented new legal measures to phase out Russian oil imports. It delayed a proposal originally scheduled for 15 April and has not set a new publication date.

Still, Brussels says a permanent Russian oil ban remains a priority. That matters because Hungary and Slovakia remain the only EU importers of Russian crude, keeping pipeline supply through Druzhba at the centre of political negotiations.

Hungary had opposed blocking Russian oil imports under Viktor Orban. His successor, Peter Magyar, has acknowledged that Hungary cannot end Druzhba imports immediately, but has pledged to eliminate dependence on Russian energy by 2035.

Slovakia has also linked Russian oil flows to its support for further sanctions against Moscow. Bratislava has indicated it could support another sanctions package once Russian oil reaches Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline.

This shows the difficulty of EU energy policy. The bloc wants a unified strategic position, but member states still have different infrastructure, refinery configurations and supply dependencies.

The Druzhba pipeline therefore remains more than a crude route. It is a political lever in sanctions, energy security and Ukraine-related financing discussions.

Energy Crisis Reinforces Clean Supply Strategy

The current Middle East energy crisis has intensified the EU’s focus on supply security. Jorgensen said the disruption is comparable in seriousness to the 1973 oil crisis and the 2022 Russian energy shock.

The Commission expects LNG prices to take years to stabilise. It also expects oil capacity to need months to normalise after the war ends, showing that energy disruption can outlast military events.

This strengthens the EU case for domestic and clean energy. The Commission wants to reduce import dependence through renewables, electrification, storage, hydrogen and alternative fuels.

For industry, the implication is clear. Europe’s energy security strategy will increasingly affect metals, grids, chemicals, transport fuels and clean technology supply chains.

Lower Russian energy dependence also raises demand for infrastructure. Europe will need more copper, aluminium, electrical steel, transformers, batteries, renewable equipment and grid materials to replace fossil fuel exposure with domestic power systems.

The policy challenge is execution. Europe must cut Russian dependence while managing fuel prices, refinery supply, LNG volatility, industrial competitiveness and political pressure from member states.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s refusal to return to Russian energy shows that energy security has become an industrial sovereignty issue. The next test is whether the EU can replace fossil dependency with real domestic energy infrastructure fast enough to protect industry from repeated external shocks.

Codelco Secures 1.5TWh of Renewable Energy to Power Copper Operations

Codelco

Chilean copper giant advances toward 100% clean energy target

Chilean copper producer Codelco signed two major renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs) totaling 1.5TWh annually, supporting its goal of achieving a 100% clean energy matrix by 2030. The deals highlight Codelco’s commitment to sustainable copper production through long-term renewable energy sourcing.

New PPAs cover full operations and future demand

The first PPA grants 1TWh/year to Generadora Metropolitana, a joint venture between France’s EDF and Chile’s AME. The second assigns 0.5TWh/year to GR Power Chile, backed by Spain’s Grenergy. These agreements will begin in January 2026 and run through December 2040. They will supply power across Codelco’s mining divisions and cover future expansions.

Grenergy confirmed the energy will come from hybrid projects, including the 340MW Monte Aguilar photovoltaic plant and battery energy storage systems (BESS) in the Biobio region. The agreement guarantees 24/7 electricity availability.

Codelco deepens clean energy strategy

This follows Codelco’s previous 2024 PPAs totaling 1.8TWh/year signed with Colbun, Atlas Renewable Energy, and Innergex. Together, these efforts support Chile’s broader decarbonization goals while ensuring energy security for one of the world’s most critical copper producers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco’s strategic shift to clean energy solidifies Chile’s role in low-carbon copper supply. These PPAs also reflect the global mining sector’s accelerating push toward sustainability amid growing ESG expectations. 

EU Unveils Draft Plan to Cut Soaring Energy Costs and Safeguard Industrial Competitiveness

The European Commission

European Commission Pushes for Tax Reforms and Clean Energy to Address Rising Electricity Prices

The European Commission has introduced a draft strategy to combat the EU's growing energy cost burden and avoid de-industrialisation. The plan, released in a draft document, stresses that Europe must narrow its energy price gap with global competitors to retain industrial strength.

Much of the proposal consists of non-binding recommendations, especially on energy taxation. The Commission highlights fossil fuel dependence, high network costs, and heavy taxation as key drivers of price volatility. These factors, officials warn, are making EU industries less competitive on the global stage.

Tax Relief and Market Reforms at the Core of the Strategy

To reduce the electricity cost burden, the EU proposes lowering taxes on power for both energy-intensive industries and households. The plan encourages EU member states to cut electricity taxes to nearly zero. Officials also want to reduce or remove non-energy components from energy bills.

The Commission plans to revive the long-stalled effort to revise the 2003 Energy Taxation Directive, though this would require unanimous agreement across all member states. Additionally, a new Energy Union Task Force will lead efforts to create a fully integrated EU energy market in 2024.

Other key initiatives include an electrification action plan, a digitalisation roadmap, and a heating and cooling strategy. These aim to streamline energy systems, reduce consumption, and accelerate the shift to clean energy.

Flexibility, Renewables, and Future-Proofing the Grid

The draft strategy also promotes consumer empowerment, urging member states to remove barriers to supplier switching, improve energy efficiency, and support renewable energy communities. The Commission will propose measures to decouple retail electricity prices from gas prices, which have remained volatile since 2022.

By 2026, the EU plans to issue guidance on combining Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with Contracts for Difference (CfDs). The Commission is also considering new rules for forward markets, hedging instruments, and a possible legally binding tariff methodology for network charges.

In terms of infrastructure, the EU will push for faster permitting of new energy projects and encourage demand response and energy storage to improve system flexibility. Officials estimate that replacing fossil fuels with clean electricity could save 50% on power costs. Electrification and efficiency upgrades would save another 30%, and flexibility improvements could deliver 20% more savings.

As part of long-term planning, the Commission is exploring LNG supply deals and infrastructure investments to stabilize prices and ensure energy security across the bloc.

Updates Mining Rebate Rules: What You Need to Know

US Mining

The United States has introduced significant updates to its mining rebate rules, affecting companies in the mining and materials processing sectors. The U.S. Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) released definitive rules on Thursday regarding the Section 45X advanced manufacturing production credit, a part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022. This credit was designed to foster investment in the U.S. manufacturing of components for wind, solar, and battery systems.

Key Changes to the Mining Rebate Rules

The new regulations bring forth an important adjustment for mining companies, particularly regarding "extraction costs." Previously, under the proposed guidance issued in December, extraction was not considered part of the production costs eligible for the 10% rebate. The rationale was that the extraction process was seen as too far removed from the ultimate production of an eligible component, such as those used in wind and solar energy systems.

However, after considerable feedback from stakeholders, the Treasury Department and IRS revised their stance. The updated rules now allow mining companies to claim the rebate for their extraction costs, provided the raw materials are processed into an eligible component. For example, lithium must be refined into lithium hydroxide, which can then be used directly in the production of batteries.

While the regulators acknowledged the importance of value-added processing activities, such as refining and purifying raw materials, they also clarified that "the action of extraction alone does not produce an eligible component." This decision effectively allows certain mining activities to qualify for the credit, but it is important to note that extraction alone, without subsequent processing, does not meet the eligibility requirements.

Industry Reactions and Future Implications

The updated guidance has generated mixed reactions within the industry. On one hand, groups representing mining companies welcomed the inclusion of extraction in some capacity, recognizing the importance of the sector in the overall supply chain for clean energy technologies. On the other hand, some stakeholders, including the National Mining Association (NMA), expressed disappointment over the narrow scope of the final rules.

Rich Nolan, CEO of the National Mining Association, argued that the decision to limit the rebate to producers who also refine materials would exclude many crucial projects from benefiting from the credit. He suggested that this limitation goes against the intentions of Congress in fostering a robust domestic supply chain for critical minerals.

The Bigger Picture: Supporting Clean Energy and Domestic Manufacturing

This policy shift reflects a broader push by the U.S. government to bolster clean energy production and reduce reliance on foreign sources of critical minerals. The Section 45X advanced manufacturing production credit is an essential part of the Inflation Reduction Act, which aims to position the U.S. as a leader in the production of clean energy technologies. As the demand for minerals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt grows—critical materials for battery production—the role of domestic mining and refining becomes increasingly important.

Mining companies, however, will need to balance the rebate’s requirements with the investment needed for refining capabilities. Many smaller mining operations may struggle to meet the additional processing requirements, potentially leaving them at a disadvantage compared to larger, more established companies with the necessary infrastructure.

In conclusion, the update to the mining rebate rules marks a step forward in supporting domestic mining and clean energy initiatives but leaves room for further development. The debate over the scope of the credit is likely to continue as stakeholders assess its impact on the industry and its ability to meet the growing demand for clean energy components.

OCI, CPS, LGES Partner on Texas BESS Project

Battery Energy Storage System (BESS)

The Alamo City BESS project in Texas marks a major milestone in energy storage and US-Korea clean energy collaboration.

Texas Battery Storage Capacity to Expand with 120MW BESS

OCI Energy, CPS Energy, and LG Energy Solution Vertech will jointly develop the Alamo City Battery Energy Storage System (BESS). The 120MW/480MWh facility, located in Bexar County, Texas, will supply backup power during peak demand periods.

Under the deal, LGES Vertech will deliver the BESS units and energy management systems to OCI Energy, the project developer. CPS Energy, the municipal utility serving San Antonio, will purchase the storage capacity through a long-term offtake agreement.

This collaboration increases CPS Energy's battery storage portfolio to 520MW, ensuring greater grid reliability across south-central Texas.

BESS Project Aligns with Vision 2027 Energy Plan

The Alamo City BESS project is scheduled to begin operation by late 2026. It will play a crucial role in Vision 2027, CPS Energy’s roadmap to a balanced, reliable, and sustainable energy mix.

Vision 2027 includes plans for 1,710MW of natural gas, 500MW of firming capacity, 84MW of wind, and 730MW of solar. The addition of this battery storage system helps CPS diversify and decarbonize its energy infrastructure.

As a result, this project strengthens both energy resilience and cross-border cooperation between the US and South Korea in the energy transition.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Alamo City BESS is more than a storage project—it’s a blueprint for municipal utilities navigating the clean energy transition. With players like OCI, CPS, and LGES joining forces, we’re seeing the integration of international technology with local grid needs. Expect similar regional collaborations to follow as US battery storage demand accelerates through 2030.

Australia Invests $63 Million in Neoen’s Renewable Energy Projects

Neoen

The Australian government has committed A$100 million ($63.2 million) in funding to French renewable energy producer, Neoen, to support the development of three large-scale renewable energy and battery storage projects in Australia. This investment reflects Australia's ongoing push to expand its renewable energy infrastructure and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

Focus on Battery Storage and Solar Power

The three projects in question include:

1. A 341MW Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) in Western Australia.
2. A 270MW BESS in Queensland.
3. A 440MW peak solar farm in New South Wales.

These projects, which are still under development, aim to enhance Australia's energy security by integrating large-scale storage solutions with renewable energy generation. The Western Australia BESS is particularly significant as it will be an extension of the already operational Collie Battery Energy Storage System, which stores and discharges 219MW of power. Once both parts of the Collie system are fully operational, they will support up to 20% of the state's average energy needs.

Neoen’s New South Wales solar farm, known as the Culcairn Solar Farm, is scheduled to begin generating 800 GWh/year by 2026, covering an area of 1,000 hectares. While a BESS at the site is a possibility, Neoen has yet to make any official announcements regarding that development.

Role of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC)

The Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), a state-owned green investment fund, is providing the funding to Neoen. The CEFC has already been involved in funding a total of 2.3GW worth of battery storage projects across Australia, playing a crucial role in the country's transition to a cleaner, more sustainable energy grid.

Australia’s Renewable Energy Growth

Renewable energy generation has surged across Australia, now accounting for 25% of the country’s total power generation in 2023, up from 17% in 2017. During the same period, the combined share of gas and coal in power generation fell from 81% to 63%. This shift aligns with the government’s broader climate goals, including decarbonizing the energy sector and ensuring energy resilience.

The funding commitment to Neoen comes just a day after the Australian government allocated A$14.1 million to GrainCorp and Ampol to promote the development of sustainable aviation fuels and renewable diesel.

Fossil Fuel Transition Platform Gains New Push From the UN

UN, Antonio Guterres

The fossil fuel transition platform gained new momentum after UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres called for a dedicated global forum. He said the fossil fuel transition platform should bring together producers, consumers, financiers, and civil society. He also said the fossil fuel transition platform must align investment, energy security, and climate goals. As a result, the debate is shifting from broad ambition to practical coordination.

This matters because global progress has slowed since countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels at Cop 28. Energy security concerns have since moved higher on the policy agenda. However, climate pressure has not eased. Therefore, governments now face a harder balancing act between near-term stability and long-term decarbonisation.

Energy Security and Climate Goals Now Need a Shared Framework

Energy security and climate goals are increasingly colliding in public policy. Many governments still worry about supply disruption and price shocks. At the same time, they must reduce emissions and build cleaner systems. Consequently, a common platform could help reduce strategic confusion.

Guterres argued that shifting away from fossil fuels can cut emissions, improve stability, and support development. That message is important because some policymakers still frame climate action as a cost burden. However, cleaner energy can also strengthen sovereignty and reduce dependence on volatile fuel markets. Therefore, the argument is becoming more economic as well as environmental.

Clean Energy Transition Faces Political Resistance

Clean energy transition efforts still face strong political resistance. Guterres warned that some fossil fuel interests continue to slow progress and spread doubt. That resistance matters because it can delay investment and weaken policy confidence. As a result, the pace of transition remains uneven across regions.

The political tension is now visible at the international level. The IEA has strongly supported the clean energy transition, but not every government agrees with that direction. Some leaders want energy policy to focus more narrowly on supply and affordability. Meanwhile, climate science continues to show that emissions pressure is still rising.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This proposal matters because the next phase of the energy transition needs more than slogans. It needs a forum that can manage trade-offs between security, affordability, and decarbonisation. If such a platform gains real political support, it could help turn a fractured transition into a more coordinated industrial shift.

France Fossil Fuel Roadmap Sets Clear Timetable for Energy Transition

Fossil fuel roadmap

France fossil fuel roadmap marks an important step in turning climate targets into a structured energy transition plan. The roadmap does not introduce new targets, but it brings France’s energy policies, electrification strategy and climate goals into one document.

France fossil fuel roadmap is significant because it gives a clear schedule for reducing fossil fuel dependence. France aims to cut fossil fuels from around 60% of final energy consumption in 2023 to 40% in 2030 and 30% in 2035.

France fossil fuel roadmap also sets long-term phase-out dates for coal, oil and natural gas. The government plans to phase out coal by 2030, oil by 2045 and natural gas by 2050, while targeting net zero emissions by mid-century.

The roadmap matters beyond France. It gives other governments a practical example of how fossil fuel transition planning can connect emissions targets, energy security, electrification and industrial strategy.

Electrification Becomes the Core of Fossil Fuel Reduction

France’s roadmap links fossil fuel reduction directly to electrification. The country’s new electrification plan, released in April, now sits alongside its national low-carbon strategy and wider climate targets.

This connection is important because fossil fuel phase-out cannot happen only through policy declarations. It requires more electricity, cleaner generation, stronger grids, electric heating, electric transport, industrial efficiency and lower-carbon manufacturing.

France also has an energy security reason to move faster. More than 95% of fossil fuels burned in the country are imported, exposing households and industry to external price shocks, shipping risks and geopolitical disruption.

Reducing imported fossil fuel use therefore serves two goals. It lowers emissions and reduces exposure to volatile global energy markets.

The roadmap reiterates France’s target to cut gross greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. It also supports the longer-term objective of net zero emissions in 2050.

France’s remaining two coal-fired power plants are scheduled to close or be converted by next year. This makes coal the easiest part of the transition, while oil and natural gas will require deeper changes across transport, buildings and industry.

For metals and materials markets, the roadmap points to rising demand for the physical infrastructure behind electrification. Copper, aluminium, electrical steel, transformers, batteries, rare earth magnets, grid equipment and power electronics will all become more important as France cuts fossil fuel use.

The policy also strengthens the case for clean energy investment. A clearer timetable can help utilities, manufacturers, grid operators and industrial users plan capital spending around future energy demand.

Fossil Fuel Transition Planning Gains Global Momentum

Think tanks welcomed the French roadmap because few countries address coal, oil and gas together under one transition framework. They noted that France did not raise ambition, but still provided a useful model by setting timelines and aligning policies.

This matters because global climate diplomacy is moving from broad pledges toward implementation. The first global stocktake agreed at Cop 28 called for a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, but many countries still lack detailed national plans.

France’s roadmap gives that commitment a national structure. It shows how governments can translate climate summit language into domestic policy sequencing.

The document also creates pressure on fossil fuel-producing countries. If demand for fossil fuels declines over the coming decades, producer economies will need diversification plans, new industries and alternative sources of public revenue.

Colombia’s draft fossil fuel transition roadmap shows that this discussion is widening. The country aims to cut primary fossil fuel demand by 90% over 2026-50 while expanding energy access and managing dependence on oil and coal exports.

The EU is also moving in the same direction, even if its language focuses more on emissions reduction than explicit fossil fuel phase-out. The bloc targets net zero emissions by 2050, a 55% emissions reduction by 2030 and a 90% reduction by 2040 compared with 1990 levels.

The practical effect is similar. Deep emissions cuts cannot happen without a major reduction in fossil fuel use.

For industry, this creates a long-term signal. Companies should expect more electrification, stronger carbon rules, higher clean-energy investment and greater pressure to reduce fossil fuel exposure in operations and supply chains.

The strategic issue is execution. Roadmaps help, but governments still need permitting reform, grid investment, clean power capacity, financing, industrial incentives and raw material supply security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

France’s roadmap shows that fossil fuel transition is becoming an infrastructure plan, not just a climate slogan. The industrial winners will be countries that connect phase-out timelines with grids, clean power, critical minerals and manufacturing capacity.

Texas BESS Project Unites OCI, CPS Energy, and LG Energy Solution

CPS Energy

OCI Energy, CPS Energy, and LG Energy Solution launched a major Texas BESS project collaboration. The 120MW/480MWh Alamo City battery storage system will stabilize Bexar County's power grid. This strategic Texas BESS project partnership advances San Antonio's energy resilience goals significantly.

LGES Vertech Supplies Advanced Battery Technology

LG Energy Solution's US division Vertech will provide cutting-edge battery systems and management technology. OCI Energy develops the project while CPS Energy secures the storage capacity offtake agreement. Meanwhile, this partnership raises CPS's total contracted battery storage to 520MW. The facility targets operational status by late 2026.

The Texas BESS project supports grid stability during peak electricity demand periods. Furthermore, the 20-year agreement ensures long-term energy security for San Antonio residents. This development aligns with Texas's growing energy storage infrastructure requirements.

Strategic Impact on Texas Energy Transition

CPS Energy's Vision 2027 plan incorporates this battery storage system comprehensively. The initiative adds 1,710MW natural gas, 730MW solar, and 84MW wind capacity. Therefore, energy storage becomes crucial for renewable integration and grid balancing. The project demonstrates Texas's commitment to diversified energy solutions.

Battery energy storage systems transform Texas's electricity market dynamics fundamentally. Moreover, Korean battery technology strengthens US-South Korea clean energy partnerships. As a result, San Antonio gains enhanced grid resilience and sustainability capabilities. This Texas BESS project model could inspire similar developments statewide.

The Metalnomist Commentary

LG Energy Solution's participation highlights Korean battery manufacturers' aggressive US market expansion amid IRA incentives. The 480MWh capacity represents significant lithium-ion battery demand, potentially requiring 400-500 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent. This project exemplifies how energy storage drives critical mineral demand while enabling renewable energy integration at scale.

US Finalizes 45X Tax Credits to Boost Clean Energy Manufacturing

US renewable energy projects

The US Department of the Treasury and Internal Revenue Service has finalized rules for the 45X advanced manufacturing tax credit, an initiative under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The credit is designed to spur investment in domestic manufacturing for components used in wind, solar, and battery systems, reducing reliance on imports and strengthening the US clean energy supply chain.

Key Highlights of the 45X Tax Credit

• Incentives for Components:

- Solar cells: 4¢/W

- Solar modules: 7¢/W

- Photovoltaic wafers: $12/m²

- Wind turbine blades: 2¢/blade

- Battery cells: $35/kWh

• Mineral Production Tax Credit: US producers of critical minerals like aluminum, cobalt, graphite, lithium, and nickel can claim 10% of production costs.

Phased Expiry of Credits

The credits will begin phasing out after 2030:

• 75% of the original value for components sold in 2030.
• 50% for 2031.
• Expiring completely after 2033.

Impact on the Renewable Sector

The 45X credit is expected to bolster the US solar industry, which has long relied on imported photovoltaic cells and modules, primarily from China and Southeast Asia. These imports are subject to tariffs and trade investigations, creating additional hurdles for developers.

US-based companies such as First Solar, Enel, and Qcells have already announced plans to establish manufacturing facilities in the US, citing the credits as a critical driver.

A Step Towards Energy Independence

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm highlighted the broader implications of the credits:

"These final rules will help strengthen energy dominance while reducing emissions and leveling the playing field for US companies."

With solar and wind energy demand continuing to grow, the 45X tax credit represents a significant step in building a robust, domestic clean energy manufacturing ecosystem, ensuring the US remains competitive in the global energy transition.

Canada Launches C$500mn Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund Initiative

Canada Critical Minerals

Canada's C$500mn Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund aims to accelerate development in clean energy and transportation-linked mining projects. The initiative, part of a larger C$1.5bn federal strategy, seeks proposals to strengthen Canada’s critical minerals sector through 2030.

Funding Targets Clean Energy and Strategic Resources

Most of the funding under the C$500mn program is non-repayable. However, for-profit, non-Indigenous companies receiving funds for revenue-generating projects must repay conditionally. Canada encourages early-stage and shovel-ready projects, especially those tied to strategic energy goals and battery supply chains.

Previously backed projects include Frontier Lithium’s PAK Clean Energy Project in Ontario (C$3.2mn), E3 Lithium’s Clearwater Project in Alberta (C$4.4mn), and Defense Metals’ Wicheeda Rare Earth Project in British Columbia (C$853,825). These illustrate the government’s emphasis on building value-added mineral ecosystems in multiple provinces.

Lithium and Rare Earth Production Lag Behind Reserves

Canada’s lithium output jumped from 520 tonnes in 2022 to 3,400 tonnes in 2023. However, this remains far below its 930,000-tonne lithium reserve base. The country also holds 830,000 tonnes of rare earth oxide equivalent but produced none in the last two years. The gap highlights the importance of CMIF-backed infrastructure to unlock resource potential and attract downstream investment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Canada's C$500mn push reinforces the nation's ambition to become a critical minerals powerhouse. While resource abundance is clear, infrastructure and processing capacity remain bottlenecks. Targeted funding can bridge this gap — especially as global demand for clean energy metals surges.

Brazil's BNDES and FINEP Announce R$5 Billion Investment in Strategic Minerals Projects

BNDES

Brazil's National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) and the Financing Agency for Studies and Projects (FINEP) have unveiled a joint investment of R$5 billion ($821 million) to bolster strategic minerals projects within the country. This significant funding initiative aims to stimulate the development of pilot plants and commercial-scale operations for key minerals vital to various industries.

Target Minerals and Project Focus

The investment will specifically target projects focused on lithium, rare earth elements, nickel, graphite, and silicon. These minerals are crucial for the production of advanced technologies, including batteries for electric vehicles and photovoltaic cells for solar energy. The funding will support both the construction of pilot and commercial-scale plants, as well as crucial studies aimed at expanding Brazil's industrial capacity in these strategic sectors. The initiative is designed to attract further private investment, fostering growth in the domestic production of these essential materials.

Driving Clean Energy and Sustainable Development

BNDES stated that this investment aims to support the increasing domestic demand for solar and wind power. Brazil has made significant strides in clean energy production, with 91% of its power coming from clean sources in 2023. Wind and solar power accounted for approximately 20% of this clean energy mix, a notable increase from 16.6% in 2022, according to energy transition think tank Ember. By supporting the development of strategic mineral resources, Brazil aims to further its commitment to sustainable energy and reduce reliance on imported materials.

Brazil's Mineral Wealth

Brazil possesses significant reserves of several key minerals. The country holds the world's largest reserves of niobium and is the leading producer of this element, which is used in various applications, including alloys, tools, dies, and superconducting magnets.  Brazil also boasts the second-largest natural graphite reserves, ranks third in nickel and rare earth element reserves, and holds the fifth and third-largest lithium and silicon reserves, respectively, according to BNDES. This abundance of natural resources positions Brazil as a potential key player in the global supply chain for these critical minerals.