Nowa Sol Copper Concentrate Talks Could Link Lumina Metals to KGHM Smelters

Lumina Metals

Nowa Sol copper concentrate could become a new feed source for Poland’s dominant copper producer after Lumina Metals entered talks with KGHM over a potential supply agreement. The companies have signed a preliminary agreement to discuss concentrate supply from Lumina’s Nowa Sol project to KGHM’s copper smelters.

Nowa Sol copper concentrate discussions remain at an early stage. The agreement is not legally binding, but it gives both companies a formal framework to assess volumes, product quality and metallurgical compatibility.

Nowa Sol copper concentrate is strategically important because the project sits inside Poland’s northern copper belt, close to KGHM’s existing copper-silver operations. That location could reduce logistical complexity if the project advances and concentrate proves suitable for KGHM’s smelting system.

The talks also show how European copper producers are looking more closely at regional feedstock options. Copper concentrate availability remains tight globally, and smelters increasingly value nearby, compatible and traceable supply.

KGHM Compatibility Will Decide Commercial Potential

KGHM’s interest will depend on whether Nowa Sol concentrate fits its smelter requirements. Copper concentrate supply is not interchangeable because each smelter has limits around grade, impurities, mineralogy and blending needs.

The preliminary agreement focuses directly on those issues. Lumina and KGHM will evaluate potential volumes, product quality and metallurgical compatibility before any binding offtake structure can emerge.

This matters because smelter feed security is becoming more valuable. Global copper concentrate treatment charges have remained under pressure, reflecting tight mine supply and strong competition among smelters for suitable feed.

For KGHM, a nearby Polish concentrate source could offer strategic advantages if the material meets technical requirements. It could support domestic smelter utilisation and reduce dependence on longer-distance concentrate flows.

For Lumina, a potential supply route to KGHM would strengthen the Nowa Sol project’s commercial pathway. A project located near an established copper producer has a clearer route to market than one that must rely entirely on distant export channels.

Poland’s Copper Belt Gains Strategic Attention

Nowa Sol is Lumina’s flagship underground copper project. It covers a 120km² concession area in Poland’s northern copper belt, a region already associated with copper and silver production.

The project’s location near KGHM’s operations gives it industrial relevance beyond resource potential. Proximity to mining infrastructure, smelting expertise and an established copper workforce can improve development logic if technical and economic studies support the project.

Lumina listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange in April to raise capital for Nowa Sol. The KGHM discussions could help strengthen investor confidence by showing that the project has potential domestic offtake interest.

Poland is already a meaningful copper jurisdiction because of KGHM’s role as the country’s main producer. Any new copper concentrate source inside the same industrial region could support national and European supply security.

The broader market context is also supportive. Copper demand is rising from grids, electrification, renewable energy, data centres and industrial manufacturing, while new mine supply remains difficult to develop.

That makes regional copper projects more strategically valuable. Europe needs not only refined copper, but also mine supply and concentrate flows that can support existing smelting capacity.

The Lumina-KGHM talks are therefore modest in legal status but meaningful in direction. They show how copper supply chains are becoming more regional, technical and security-focused.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The potential Lumina-KGHM deal shows that copper value is increasingly tied to location and smelter fit, not only resource size. If Nowa Sol can deliver compatible concentrate near KGHM’s system, it could become a useful European copper supply asset.

Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan strengthens Europe’s critical copper supply

Aurubis

The Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan marks a major step in Europe’s critical raw materials strategy. The €200mn investment loan from the European Investment Bank (EIB) will fund capacity growth at Aurubis sites in Bulgaria and Germany. As a result, the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan directly targets higher refined copper output and more recycled copper flows into EU industry.

The Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan is also the first EIB metals-sector financing under the bank’s new raw materials strategy. In March, the EIB committed to lend around €2bn a year to critical raw materials projects. These include extraction, processing, recycling and substitution technologies across the energy transition value chain. Therefore, the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan serves as an early flagship for this new mandate.

EIB backs primary and secondary copper growth at Pirdop and Hamburg

Aurubis will use the EIB loan to expand both primary and secondary copper capacity. At Pirdop in Bulgaria, the company is investing €120mn to enlarge its tank-house. This expansion will lift refined copper cathode capacity by 50pc to 340,000 t/yr. Commissioning is planned for fiscal year 2025-26, adding meaningful volumes to Europe’s copper pool.

At the same time, Aurubis will invest €190mn in its Hamburg smelter and refinery complex. The project will enable an extra 30,000 t/yr of recycled copper scrap processing, alongside more internal smelting intermediates. Therefore, the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan supports both mined copper and circular copper streams. This dual focus directly aligns with EU priorities on recycling, resource efficiency and lower embedded emissions.

These expansions will further cement Aurubis’ position as Europe’s largest copper producer. Increased output from Pirdop and Hamburg should improve regional security of supply. That security is critical as copper demand rises for grid upgrades, renewables, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence and data centre infrastructure.

Copper market vulnerability drives EU support for Aurubis

Recent market dynamics underline why the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan matters for Europe. Earlier this year, a huge influx of global copper flowed into the US. End-users and traders stockpiled metal ahead of expected US copper import tariffs that never materialised. However, the diversion exposed how quickly European copper availability can tighten when trade flows shift.

Europe’s vulnerability stems from its heavy dependence on imported copper concentrates and refined metal. Any tariff scare, logistics disruption or geopolitical shock can pull units away from the Atlantic basin. Therefore, building more regional smelting, refining and recycling capacity has become a strategic priority. The Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan is a concrete step toward that goal.

By boosting both primary cathode output and recycled copper processing, Aurubis supports a more resilient supply base. Meanwhile, EIB-backed capital lowers financing costs and signals strong policy alignment. Over time, this combination could help stabilise European copper premia and reduce exposure to external shocks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aurubis’ deal with the EIB shows how copper is moving to the centre of Europe’s industrial and energy transition policy. The mix of primary capacity growth and scrap-based expansion reflects a realistic view of future copper constraints. Market participants should watch how quickly the new tank-house and Hamburg upgrades translate into additional cathode and scrap-processing volumes, especially if trade tensions divert metal again.

Teck Arizona Copper Spin-Out Preserves Optional Supply Upside

Kodiak Copper

Teck Arizona copper spin-out plans show how major miners are trying to retain long-term exposure to copper growth without committing near-term development capital. Teck Resources and junior explorer Kodiak Copper plan to place two lightly drilled Arizona copper projects into a new listed exploration company.

The Teck Arizona copper spin-out would combine Teck’s Copper Hill asset with Kodiak’s Mohave project under Kay Copper, a US-focused exploration vehicle. The new company would be positioned to drill and advance the assets, but any production would remain years away.

The Teck Arizona copper spin-out is modest compared with Teck’s larger strategic moves, including its planned merger with Anglo American. However, it fits a copper market increasingly focused on optional supply, future scarcity and the difficulty of bringing new mines into production.

The structure allows Teck to keep exposure to potential US copper upside while shifting exploration risk and funding needs to outside investors. For Kodiak, the transaction creates a clearer platform around Arizona copper exploration.

Kay Copper Gives Teck Exposure Without Near-Term Capital Pressure

Kay Copper would hold two early-stage Arizona copper projects that have not seen recent drilling. This means the assets are still far from any development decision, resource definition or mine construction timeline.

For Teck, that distance matters. The company can preserve future upside while focusing capital on larger, more advanced priorities. A spin-out also gives investors a dedicated vehicle for exploration risk that may not fit inside a larger producer’s near-term capital plan.

This is a practical response to the copper market. Demand from grids, electric vehicles, data centres and industrial electrification continues to strengthen the long-term case for copper.

At the same time, new copper supply remains difficult to build. Permitting delays, lower grades, higher capital intensity and community approval challenges have extended project timelines across the industry.

Arizona remains strategically relevant because the US wants more domestic copper supply. But early-stage projects still need drilling, studies, permitting, financing and infrastructure before they can become real tonnes.

The Kay Copper structure therefore does not solve near-term supply tightness. It creates an option on future US copper production in the 2030s.

Copper Market Rewards Optionality as New Supply Lags

The deal reflects a broader shift in copper strategy. Companies are increasingly trying to hold undeveloped assets because future supply is becoming more valuable.

Physical copper availability is already under closer scrutiny as demand rises from electrification and power infrastructure. The market is also becoming more policy-driven, especially in the US, where copper is increasingly linked to industrial security and domestic manufacturing.

In that environment, even early-stage assets can attract interest. They may not produce soon, but they offer exposure to a future market where permitted copper projects could carry a stronger strategic premium.

The transaction also shows how larger miners can use junior vehicles to advance non-core exploration assets. This allows capital markets to fund drilling while the major retains some upside.

For investors, the risk remains high. Copper Hill and Mohave are lightly drilled, and any production would not arrive until the 2030s at the earliest. Exploration success, permitting and project economics are still unproven.

For the copper sector, however, the message is clear. Companies do not want to lose optional copper positions in stable jurisdictions, even when those projects are not ready for development.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Teck’s Arizona spin-out is small in tonnage terms but meaningful in market psychology. In a copper market worried about future supply, even distant exploration assets can become strategic options.

Hailiang Saudi Copper JV Targets Middle East Processing Growth

Rawas

Hailiang Saudi copper JV plans will give Chinese copper products producer Zhejiang Hailiang a new manufacturing platform in Saudi Arabia. The company plans to form a joint venture with Saudi investment firm Rawas to build a $566mn copper processing plant at the port of Dammam.

The Hailiang Saudi copper JV is planned with 150,000 t/yr of copper processing capacity. The plant will include copper pipes, copper bars, recycled copper and copper foil, giving the project a broad downstream product mix.

The agreement gives Hailiang a 51% stake in the venture, while Rawas will hold 49%. The project still requires approval from the Saudi government and Hailiang’s shareholders before the partners finalise the investment.

The Hailiang Saudi copper JV reflects a wider shift in the copper products industry. Chinese processors are increasingly looking overseas to secure market access, reduce trade exposure and position closer to growth regions in the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

Dammam Plant Adds Copper Foil and Recycling Capacity

The planned Dammam plant will include 30,000 t/yr of copper pipe capacity and 20,000 t/yr of copper bar capacity. These products support construction, cooling systems, power infrastructure, industrial equipment and manufacturing supply chains.

The project also includes 50,000 t/yr of recycled copper capacity. This is strategically important because copper scrap is becoming a more valuable feedstock as concentrate markets tighten and buyers seek lower-carbon copper units.

The planned 50,000 t/yr of copper foil capacity adds a higher-value growth angle. Copper foil is used in batteries, electronics, printed circuit boards and advanced electrical applications. That gives the project relevance beyond traditional copper tube and bar markets.

The product mix suggests Hailiang is not only targeting commodity copper processing. It is building a downstream platform that can serve infrastructure, energy, electronics and battery-related demand from one regional base.

Dammam also offers logistical value. A port location can support raw material imports, finished product exports and access to Gulf, African and European customers. This could help Hailiang build a wider regional distribution network.

Saudi Arabia Gains Value-Added Copper Manufacturing Role

Hailiang said it aims to capitalise on Saudi Arabia’s copper ore resources, energy cost advantages and policy environment. These factors align with Saudi Arabia’s wider ambition to expand industrial manufacturing and mineral value chains.

For Saudi Arabia, the project could support a shift from resource availability toward value-added processing. Copper products are increasingly important for grids, buildings, cooling systems, EV infrastructure, renewable energy and industrial electrification.

The inclusion of recycled copper also fits the growing importance of circular metal supply. If Saudi Arabia can combine scrap collection, energy advantages and downstream manufacturing, it could strengthen its role in regional copper supply chains.

However, the project faces uncertainty. Hailiang said it is closely monitoring Middle East developments and their potential impact on site selection, construction progress, personnel safety and future operations.

The construction timeline has not yet been fixed. The partners will determine the schedule according to market conditions after the joint-venture agreement receives the required approvals.

This cautious approach is important. Middle East industrial projects can offer strong energy and logistics advantages, but geopolitical risk, financing timing, permitting and supply-chain security can still affect execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hailiang’s Saudi venture shows how Chinese copper processors are internationalising downstream capacity, not only exporting products. The project’s real value lies in combining copper foil, recycling and regional market access inside Saudi Arabia’s industrial diversification strategy.

Lundin 2026 Copper Guidance Falls as Candelaria Slows Underground Mining

Lundin Mining

Lundin 2026 copper guidance has moved lower after weaker expectations at Candelaria in Chile. The company cut its 2026 copper target to 310,000-335,000t. That compares with earlier guidance of 320,000-348,000t. As a result, Lundin 2026 copper guidance now reflects a more cautious view of underground mining rates.

The revision matters because Candelaria remains Lundin’s largest copper-producing asset. The company expects lower underground mining rates in the first half of 2026. That change directly reduced expected output from the site. Therefore, Candelaria copper production is now the main reason for the group downgrade.

However, Lundin’s overall operating picture is not weak across the board. The company produced 331,232t of copper in 2025, beating its initial guidance. It also raised copper expectations at Caserones and Chapada for 2026. Meanwhile, Lundin has sharpened its portfolio around copper after selling its Eagle nickel-copper asset.

Candelaria Copper Production Weighs on the 2026 Outlook

Candelaria copper production is carrying more operational risk than Lundin’s other core assets. The company lowered 2026 guidance for the mine to 135,000-145,000t. Its previous estimate stood at 140,000-150,000t. That reduction may look modest, but it matters because of the asset’s size inside the portfolio.

The mine also underperformed in 2025 compared with the previous year. Copper production at Candelaria fell by 10pc to 145,471t. That decline suggests the new guidance cut did not emerge in isolation. Instead, it reflects an operating trend investors should watch closely in 2026.

For copper markets, this type of downgrade remains important. Global supply growth still depends heavily on stable performance from established mines. When a large Chilean asset slows, even slightly, confidence in near-term supply weakens. Therefore, Lundin 2026 copper guidance reinforces how sensitive the market remains to mine-specific disruption.

Caserones Copper Output and Chapada Recovery Support Lundin Copper Strategy

Caserones copper output is now providing the strongest counterweight inside Lundin’s portfolio. The company lifted 2026 guidance for the Chilean operation by 13pc to 130,000-140,000t. It also said production will be modestly weighted toward the first half. That reflects a more favourable grade profile in the coming year.

Caserones already showed stronger momentum in 2025. Copper production there rose 7pc year on year to 132,881t. That improvement helped Lundin raise its 2025 copper guidance during the third quarter. As a result, Caserones copper output has become a more important stabiliser for group performance.

Chapada is also moving in the right direction. Lundin raised 2026 guidance for the Brazilian mine by 12pc to 45,000-50,000t. The company expects better recovery as stockpile material falls from about 25pc to 10pc of mill feed. Consequently, Chapada may contribute more meaningful quality improvement than headline tonnage alone suggests.

Lundin’s broader copper strategy is becoming clearer. The company has raised 2027 guidance across its three copper projects by an average of 4pc. It also sold Eagle, its only nickel-producing asset, in order to focus on larger copper operations. Therefore, Lundin is positioning itself as a more concentrated copper producer, even as Lundin 2026 copper guidance moves lower.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This guidance cut is not a company-wide setback. It is a reminder that copper portfolios still depend on a few large mines performing well. Lundin’s strategy remains constructive, but Candelaria now deserves far more attention than the headline guidance change suggests.

Anglo American Teck merger creates a top-five global copper producer

Anglo American Teck

The Anglo American Teck merger won shareholder approval and moves toward a 2026 closing. The Anglo American Teck merger will form Anglo Teck, a top-five copper producer by scale. The Anglo American Teck merger also lifts copper exposure above 70% of revenue.

The all-share transaction values the deal at about $53bn and targets completion in 2026. The merged group will base its headquarters in Canada and keep a primary listing in London. Anglo shareholders will hold a 62.4% stake in the enlarged company.

Copper scale becomes the core investment logic

The merger concentrates premium copper assets as electrification demand rises. Analysts expect strategic value from combining Anglo’s Collahuasi stake with Teck’s growing Quebrada Blanca operations. Those assets could exceed 1mn tonnes per year in the early 2030s.

That output would rival the world’s largest copper mine, Escondida, operated by BHP. Meanwhile, record copper prices strengthen the case for larger, lower-risk portfolios. Therefore, investors expect improved funding capacity for expansions and debottlenecking.

Regulators will decide the timeline and the precedent

Regulatory reviews remain the main gating item for closing. The deal still needs approval under the Investment Canada Act and competition clearances across jurisdictions. Ottawa has cleared national security concerns, but the net-benefit test could extend the process.

The companies will operate independently until approvals arrive. However, the shareholder votes signal strong confidence in copper-led strategy. As a result, the deal may trigger broader global copper consolidation among mining majors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Anglo American Teck merger reflects a market that now rewards copper-heavy cash flow and long-life assets. Therefore, regulators will weigh competition risks against strategic supply security. Meanwhile, rivals will likely pursue their own copper consolidation to protect growth pipelines.

Lundin Copper Output Rises as Caserones Grades Lift First-Quarter Production

Lundin Mining

Lundin copper output increased in the first quarter as stronger production from the Caserones mine in Chile offset lower grades at Candelaria. The Canadian miner produced 79,934t of copper during the quarter, up 7% from a year earlier.

Lundin copper output was led by Caserones, where production rose by 34.3% to 38,552t. The increase was driven by unexpectedly higher copper concentrate grades, making Caserones the largest contributor to the company’s quarterly copper production.

Lundin copper output remains on track with the company’s 2026 guidance of 310,000-335,000t. The result reinforces Lundin’s increasingly copper-focused strategy after recent asset sales reduced its exposure to zinc and nickel.

The company now generates 85% of quarterly revenue from copper. That shift gives Lundin more direct exposure to long-term demand from grids, electrification, data centres, renewable energy and industrial infrastructure.

Caserones Strength Offsets Candelaria Grade Pressure

Caserones was the clear operating driver in the first quarter. Higher grades lifted copper output and helped offset weaker performance elsewhere in Chile.

The mine also produced 589t of molybdenum in the quarter, down 2.2% from a year earlier. Molybdenum remains a valuable by-product because of its role in special steel, stainless steel, energy equipment and high-temperature industrial applications.

Candelaria produced 30,808t of copper, down 16.9% from a year earlier because of lower grades. The decline shows how sensitive copper output remains to ore quality, even at established assets.

Brazil’s Chapada mine produced 10,574t of copper. This gave Lundin additional geographic diversity across its copper portfolio, although Chile remained the dominant contributor.

The mixed mine performance highlights a common copper industry pattern. Higher grades at one asset can offset weakness at another, but sustained production growth still depends on grade control, mill performance and operational reliability.

Vicuna Project Anchors Lundin’s Long-Term Copper Growth

Lundin’s longer-term growth story is increasingly tied to the Vicuna copper project on the Argentina-Chile border. The company published a technical study for the project in the first quarter.

Vicuna is planned to produce more than 500,000 t/yr of copper once fully operational. If developed successfully, it could become one of the more important new copper growth projects in the Americas.

The project matters because new large-scale copper supply remains difficult to bring to market. Permitting, capital intensity, infrastructure, water access and cross-border complexity will all shape Vicuna’s development path.

Lundin has also simplified its portfolio. It completed the sale of the US-based Eagle mine to Talon Metals at the start of the quarter, further concentrating the business around copper.

The company previously sold its Neves-Corvo mine in Portugal and Zinkgruvan mine in Sweden to Boliden. Those assets were Lundin’s only zinc-producing mines, leaving the company with a much clearer copper-led structure.

For investors and industrial buyers, that portfolio shift is important. Lundin is positioning itself more directly around copper’s strategic demand growth rather than maintaining a broader base metals mix.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lundin’s first quarter shows the value of becoming a focused copper producer at a time when copper is becoming a strategic industrial material. The next question is whether Vicuna can move from technical promise to bankable supply in a market that needs large, reliable copper projects.

Copper Wire Producer to Acquire Hussey Copper

International Wire Group

Hussey Copper’s Market Role

Copper wire producer International Wire Group (IWG) has agreed to acquire Hussey Copper from KPS Capital Partners. The deal, expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, will expand IWG’s reach across key copper markets. Although financial details remain undisclosed, the move is expected to reshape competition within North America’s copper sector.

Hussey Copper operates three facilities, including a bar mill and fabrication plant in Kentucky and its headquarters in Pennsylvania. The company produces copper and copper-nickel alloys in strip, sheet, and plate forms, while also offering casting, rolling, annealing, and plating services. Its role as a major busbar supplier makes it essential to electrical infrastructure and industrial supply chains.

Strategic Value for IWG

The acquisition will boost IWG’s position in electrical infrastructure, data centers, and electric vehicles. These sectors are driving global copper demand as electrification expands worldwide. By integrating Hussey Copper’s capabilities, IWG is set to meet surging demand while strengthening its role across the copper value chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal highlights the copper industry’s consolidation as energy transition markets accelerate demand. For IWG, the integration of Hussey Copper provides not only scale but also critical alignment with electrification-driven growth sectors.

Taseko Copper Earnings Rise as Higher Prices Offset Cost Pressure

Taseko Copper Mining

Taseko copper earnings improved in the first quarter as stronger realised copper prices and steadier mine output outweighed rising fuel, explosives and maintenance costs. The Canadian copper producer reported first-quarter earnings of C$93.5mn and net income of C$17mn, reversing a C$29mn loss a year earlier.

Taseko copper earnings were supported by revenue of C$237mn, up from C$139mn in the first quarter of 2025. Copper sales volumes rose by about 25% to 27mn lb, while realised copper prices increased to $5.74/lb, or $12,654/t, from $4.24/lb a year earlier.

Taseko copper earnings show how higher copper prices can quickly improve financial performance for established producers. However, the quarter also highlights the cost inflation facing mine operators, especially those exposed to diesel, explosives and unplanned maintenance.

The result reinforces a wider copper market theme. Strong prices can support margins, but mine cost structures remain under pressure as operators process complex assets and manage equipment reliability.

Gibraltar Stabilises Output but Costs Move Higher

Gibraltar remained Taseko’s main cash generator in the first quarter. The mine produced 30mn lb of copper, stabilising after earlier disruption from maintenance issues and a serious accident that previously pushed output below guidance.

The stable output was important because Gibraltar still dominates Taseko’s operating base. Florence has begun production, but Gibraltar remains the asset that drives near-term revenue, cash flow and earnings.

However, Gibraltar’s unit costs increased. Costs rose to $2.63/lb from $2.47/lb in the previous quarter and $2.26/lb a year earlier.

The increase was driven by higher diesel prices, explosives costs and unplanned maintenance. These cost pressures are significant because they can dilute the benefit of higher copper prices.

For copper miners, diesel and maintenance are not secondary issues. They directly affect haulage, equipment availability, mine sequencing and operating margins.

Gibraltar’s performance therefore sends a mixed signal. Production stability has improved, but cost control remains a key challenge if Taseko wants to fully capture the upside from higher copper prices.

Florence Adds US Copper Output but Remains Early-Stage

The Florence mine in Arizona produced its first commercial copper during the quarter. Output reached 1.5mn lb, marking an important milestone for Taseko’s US growth strategy.

Florence remains small compared with Gibraltar, but its first production gives Taseko a second operating source of copper. This improves the company’s long-term portfolio balance if output can ramp successfully.

The Arizona asset is strategically important because the US is trying to strengthen domestic copper supply. Copper demand is rising from grids, electrification, manufacturing reshoring and data centre infrastructure.

However, Florence has not yet become the rapid growth engine once expected. The project must still scale output, prove operating consistency and contribute meaningfully to group cash flow.

For Taseko, the near-term story remains Gibraltar plus price leverage. Florence adds strategic optionality, but the company’s earnings are still most sensitive to copper prices and Gibraltar’s cost performance.

The first-quarter result also shows why copper producers are receiving more investor attention. When realised prices rise sharply, even mid-sized producers can see rapid earnings recovery.

Still, the market will watch whether higher costs continue to climb. If diesel, explosives and maintenance inflation persist, copper miners may need even stronger prices to protect margins.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Taseko’s quarter shows that copper price strength can repair earnings quickly, but it cannot hide mine-level cost inflation. The strategic upside lies in Florence, yet Gibraltar’s cost discipline will decide how much of the copper rally Taseko actually converts into cash.

CMOC Copper Output Rose in 2025 on Stronger DRC Production

Copper Wire

CMOC copper output increased in 2025 as the Chinese diversified metals producer lifted production from its copper-cobalt operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The company produced 741,100t of copper during the year, up 14% from 2024.

The increase was driven by higher output from both the Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine and the Kisanfu copper-cobalt mine. These assets remain central to CMOC’s copper growth strategy and to China’s access to African copper cathode supply.

CMOC copper output is expected to rise again in 2026, with the company targeting production of 760,000-820,000t. CMOC also plans to expand copper production at Kisanfu by another 100,000 t/yr in 2027.

DRC Assets Strengthen CMOC’s Copper Growth Platform

CMOC’s production growth reinforces the strategic importance of the DRC in global copper supply. The country has become one of the most important sources of copper cathode for China, supported by large-scale mining, solvent extraction and electrowinning capacity.

Tenke Fungurume remains a key asset in this system. The mine has copper cathode capacity of 270,000 t/yr, and its TFM-1 copper cathode brand was approved by the London Metal Exchange for listing on 27 March.

The LME approval strengthens the marketability of CMOC’s DRC-produced copper. Exchange-listed status can improve brand recognition, liquidity and acceptance among global buyers, especially in refined copper markets where cathode quality and deliverability matter.

China’s Copper Supply Chain Leans Heavily on DRC Cathode

The DRC remained China’s largest source of copper cathode imports in 2025. China imported 1.44mn t of copper cathode from the country, accounting for 37.6% of total imports.

This trade flow highlights the depth of China’s dependence on DRC copper supply. As domestic demand from grids, manufacturing, electric vehicles and energy infrastructure continues, stable access to DRC cathode remains strategically important.

CMOC copper output growth also has wider market implications. Additional production from Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu can help offset disruptions in other copper regions, but it also increases the role of African supply in balancing global refined copper markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CMOC’s 2025 copper growth shows how the DRC has become a core pillar of China’s refined copper security. The next strategic question is whether rising African cathode supply can remain reliable amid infrastructure, policy and geopolitical risks.

ICSG Copper Surplus Forecast Challenges Bullish Near-Term Market Narrative

Copper

ICSG copper surplus forecast has shifted the refined copper market outlook from deficit to surplus, challenging the more bullish tone around copper prices and strategic demand. The International Copper Study Group now expects a refined copper surplus of 96,000t in 2026 and 377,000t in 2027.

The revision marks a major change from ICSG’s October outlook, which had projected a 150,000t deficit for 2026. The new ICSG copper surplus forecast reflects weaker-than-expected demand growth and stronger secondary refined copper output.

The refined copper market is still exposed to mine disruption, lower ore grades and geopolitical risk. However, the latest forecast suggests that scrap-based production and slower consumption can offset some of the tightness from constrained mine supply.

ICSG expects global adjusted mine production to reach 23.559mn t in 2026 and 24.103mn t in 2027. Adjusted refined production is forecast at 28.76mn t in 2026 and 29.613mn t in 2027, while refined usage is expected at 28.664mn t and 29.236mn t.

Secondary Output and Slower Demand Ease Refined Copper Tightness

The biggest change in the ICSG copper surplus forecast comes from the refined side of the market. Stronger secondary output is expected to help balance constrained primary supply.

Refined copper production is forecast to grow by only 0.4% in 2026 before rising by 3% in 2027. Constrained concentrate availability will limit primary electrolytic growth this year, but solvent extraction-electrowinning and scrap-based output should provide support.

For 2027, ICSG expects primary refined copper production to rise by 2.3%, while secondary refined production increases by 5.7%. This gives scrap a larger role in balancing the market.

This matters because copper supply discussions often focus heavily on mines. But refined copper availability also depends on scrap collection, processing economics, smelter operations, SX-EW output and regional refined production.

Demand growth has also been revised lower. ICSG now expects refined usage to increase by 1.6% in 2026, down from its previous 2.1% forecast.

The downgrade reflects uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and disrupted trade flows. Chinese refined copper usage is expected to rise by 1.9% in 2026, while demand outside China grows by 1.3%.

Global refined usage is forecast to rise by 2% in 2027. Asia will remain the main growth engine, while EU and Japanese consumption are expected to stay subdued.

Asia outside Asean and CIS states will remain by far the largest refined copper-consuming region. Usage is projected at 20.469mn t in 2026 and 20.907mn t in 2027.

Mine Supply Risks Still Support Copper’s Strategic Value

ICSG’s near-term surplus forecast does not remove copper’s longer-term supply risk. The group revised down its 2026 mine production growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.3%, citing weaker growth in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile and Indonesia.

Output at Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa in the DRC remains constrained after major incidents in 2025. These disruptions show how quickly copper mine supply can tighten when large assets underperform.

Mine production growth is expected to recover to 2.3% in 2027. ICSG expects support from Chile, Zambia, Indonesia and the DRC, along with ramp-ups at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, Malmyz in Russia, Julong in China and Almalyk in Uzbekistan.

Still, mine supply remains structurally difficult. Declining ore grades, slow permitting, higher capital intensity and longer project timelines continue to limit how quickly the industry can respond to higher prices.

Copper demand also retains strong strategic drivers. Energy transition investment, grid expansion, urbanisation, digitalisation, data centres and new semi-finished product capacity should continue to support long-term consumption.

This creates a split market narrative. On paper, refined copper may move into surplus in 2026 and 2027. Strategically, copper remains central to electrification, artificial intelligence infrastructure, manufacturing and industrial policy.

ICSG also warned that actual balances could diverge from forecasts. Its Chinese apparent demand calculation excludes changes in unreported stocks, including State Reserve Bureau, producer, consumer, trader and bonded inventories.

That caveat is important. Copper inventories can move through hidden channels, making the refined market appear looser or tighter than reported balances suggest.

The ICSG copper surplus forecast therefore does not end the bullish long-term copper case. It does, however, caution against assuming immediate refined scarcity when secondary supply is rising and demand outside China remains soft.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ICSG copper surplus forecast shows that copper’s strategic story and near-term balance sheet can move in different directions. Data centres, grids and electrification support the long-term thesis, but scrap growth and weaker demand may keep the refined market looser than bullish headlines suggest.

CMOC Copper Output Rises as DRC Mines Strengthen China Supply

CMOC

CMOC copper output increased in the first quarter of 2026 as higher production from the company’s Democratic Republic of Congo copper-cobalt mines lifted supply. The Chinese diversified metals producer produced 187,880t of copper in January-March, up 10% from a year earlier.

CMOC copper output was supported by stronger production at the Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines. These assets are central to China’s copper and cobalt feedstock security because they supply large volumes of cathode and intermediate material from one of the world’s most important copper-cobalt districts.

CMOC copper output is expected to remain a major market focus this year. The company is targeting 760,000-820,000t of copper production in 2026, after producing 741,100t in 2025.

The result reinforces the DRC’s role as China’s largest imported copper cathode source. China imported 275,359t of copper cathode from the DRC in the first quarter, equal to 37.5% of total imports.

Tenke and Kisanfu Anchor CMOC’s Copper Growth

CMOC’s first-quarter copper growth reflects the scale and strategic importance of its DRC operations. Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu remain core assets for the company’s copper-cobalt portfolio.

The company plans to expand output at Kisanfu by adding 100,000 t/yr of copper cathode capacity. Completion is targeted for 2027.

The expansion could also lift cobalt capacity. CMOC has not disclosed the planned increase, but market participants expect Kisanfu’s cobalt capacity to rise by more than 30,000 t/yr.

This matters because copper and cobalt are increasingly linked in DRC project economics. Higher copper output can bring additional cobalt units into the market, depending on ore composition, processing rates and export rules.

The London Metal Exchange approval of CMOC’s TFM-1 copper cathode brand adds another layer of market significance. The brand, produced at Tenke Fungurume, was approved for listing on 27 March and has a registered production capacity of 270,000 t/yr.

Exchange approval improves brand visibility and market acceptance. It can also support trade liquidity, financing and customer confidence for DRC-origin copper cathode.
China’s copper cathode import structure shows why this is important. The DRC already supplies more than one-third of China’s imported cathode, making Congolese supply critical to Chinese refined copper availability.

The China grade-A copper cathode premium was steady at $55-70/t cif Shanghai on 23 April. The range narrowed from $55-75/t a week earlier, showing a relatively stable but cautious spot market.

Cobalt Output Stays Flat as Quotas Restrict Feedstock Flows

CMOC’s cobalt production was largely unchanged in the first quarter. The company produced 30,508t of cobalt, up only 0.3% from a year earlier.

The company set its 2026 cobalt output guidance at 100,000-120,000t. That is broadly stable against 117,549t produced in 2025.

The flat cobalt outlook reflects a more complicated market. The DRC suspended cobalt feedstock exports from 22 February to 15 October 2025 before moving to a quota-based export system for the fourth quarter of 2025 and for 2026-27.

Administrative delays have slowed the quota system. The DRC extended fourth-quarter 2025 quotas to 31 March 2026 because of slow processing.

The effect on Chinese imports has been severe. China imported only 1,278t cobalt metal equivalent of cobalt intermediate feedstock in January-February, down 96% from a year earlier.

Cobalt hydroxide prices remained stable at $25.95-26.10/lb cif China on 23 April. But the stability masks a market still shaped by restricted DRC export flows, delayed allocations and uncertainty over quota administration.

For CMOC, the copper side of the portfolio is showing clear growth. The cobalt side remains more exposed to policy risk, export controls and administrative timing in the DRC.

The Kisanfu expansion could increase future cobalt availability, but the market impact will depend on whether DRC export rules allow material to move smoothly to downstream refiners.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CMOC’s first-quarter results show that DRC copper remains essential to China’s refined copper supply, while cobalt is increasingly constrained by policy rather than production alone. The strategic issue is no longer just mine output, but whether export quotas, brand approvals and logistics can keep critical metal flows moving.

Anglo 2026 Copper Guidance Falls as Lower Chilean Ore Grades Weigh on Output

Anglo American, Copper

Anglo 2026 copper guidance has been cut as weaker ore grades at Collahuasi reshape the company’s near-term production outlook. Anglo American lowered its 2026 copper guidance to 700,000-760,000 metric tonnes from 760,000-820,000t. The downgrade shows that Anglo 2026 copper guidance is now being driven more by grade reality than by capacity ambition.

The main pressure comes from Chile. Anglo expects copper production at its Chilean operations to fall by an average of 11pc to 390,000-420,000t because of lower-than-expected grades. Peru also faces a smaller downgrade, with guidance cut by 3pc to 310,000-340,000t. As a result, Anglo 2026 copper guidance reflects weakness across both of its main copper regions.

This matters because copper remains central to Anglo’s future value. The company produced 695,000t in 2025, near the lower end of its annual guidance range. Fourth-quarter copper output also dropped 14pc from a year earlier to 169,500t. Therefore, the weaker 2026 view confirms that the company is entering the year from a softer base.

Collahuasi Ore Grades Now Define the Near-Term Copper Story

Collahuasi ore grades are the key reason behind the guidance cut. Lower grades at the Chilean mine are reducing expected production more sharply than previously assumed. That shift matters because Chile remains the largest contributor to Anglo’s copper portfolio. Consequently, even modest grade disappointments can alter the company’s overall copper outlook.

The downgrade also shows how exposed large miners remain to geological variability. Production capacity alone does not guarantee higher output when ore quality weakens. In copper mining, grade is often the most important driver of performance. Therefore, Anglo 2026 copper guidance is a reminder that resource quality still sets the real ceiling.

Anglo Copper Outlook Improves Again After 2026, but Execution Still Matters

Anglo copper outlook beyond 2026 remains more constructive. The company expects total copper production to rise to 750,000-810,000t in 2027 and 790,000-850,000t in 2028. That suggests management still sees the 2026 weakness as temporary rather than structural. However, future recovery will depend on grade performance and operational consistency.

The broader portfolio also shows mixed signals. Manganese ore output rose strongly in 2025 as Gemco returned to normal after cyclone disruption. Nickel production also edged higher, even as Anglo continues trying to exit that business. Meanwhile, the Teck merger is still progressing and could create a top-five global copper producer. As a result, Anglo’s long-term copper strategy remains ambitious even as its 2026 outlook turns more cautious.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This downgrade matters because it cuts through the usual long-term copper optimism with a more immediate geological reality. Anglo still has a strong copper future, but 2026 now looks like a year of grade pressure rather than volume momentum. If Chile does not stabilize, the market may stay cautious even with stronger 2027 and 2028 targets.

China's Jiayuan to Secure Copper Cathode Supply from Swiss Firm IXM for Lithium-Ion Foil Production

Guangdong Jiayuan

Guangdong Jiayuan, a leading Chinese copper foil producer, has reached an agreement with Switzerland-based trading firm IXM to purchase a significant quantity of copper cathode feedstock. The deal, valued at approximately 5.066 billion yuan ($694 million), is set to support Jiayuan’s expansion of refined copper foil production, which is critical for lithium-ion batteries, copper-clad laminates, and printed circuit boards.

Details of the Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement

The agreement between Jiayuan and IXM will see the Chinese company secure 60,000 tons of copper cathode from IXM’s Geneva operations between December 2024 and November 2025. Additionally, Jiayuan will purchase 10,000 tons of cathode from IXM’s Shanghai branch during 2025. The price of the copper cathode will be determined through a negotiated pricing methodology, which will be finalized when both parties sign the contract.

Jiayuan, with a production capacity of 100,000 tons per year of refined copper foil, has seen steady growth in its production. In the first half of 2024, the company produced 24,000 tons of copper foil, marking a slight increase of 0.1% year-over-year. This agreement will ensure a steady supply of high-quality copper cathode to meet the growing demand for copper foil in key sectors such as electric vehicle (EV) batteries and electronic components.

China's Booming Copper Foil and NEV Industries

China’s refined copper foil production capacity reached 1.6 million tons per year in 2023, a 51% increase from the previous year. Notably, the production capacity for lithium-ion copper foil—used in batteries for electric vehicles—rose sharply by 68%, reaching 950,000 tons per year in 2023. With China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) market expanding rapidly, the demand for lithium-ion copper foil is expected to grow significantly. Industry experts predict that deliveries of lithium-ion copper foil in China will reach 1.1 million tons per year by 2025.

The Chinese NEV industry is experiencing robust growth, with production rising by 35% to 11.345 million units in the first 11 months of 2024. Sales of NEVs have also surged, increasing by 36% over the same period. As the NEV market continues to expand, the demand for copper, particularly copper foil for lithium-ion batteries, is expected to increase, further driving the need for stable copper supply agreements like the one between Jiayuan and IXM.

Copper Market Trends and Prices

On December 12, 2024, Metalnomist-assessed grade-A copper cathode prices, based on the London Metal Exchange (LME) official cash prices, were in the range of $40-60 per ton cif Shanghai. These prices remained flat compared to December 10, but they had dropped from the previous range of $45-60 per ton observed on December 5 due to a rebound in copper prices during the week. The fluctuating prices highlight the importance of securing stable supply contracts for manufacturers like Jiayuan as copper remains a critical commodity in the transition to a low-carbon economy.

ERG Mercuria copper supply agreement tightens grip on DRC copper flows

ERG

The new ERG Mercuria copper supply agreement deepens trading control over Democratic Republic of Congo copper flows. Under the deal, Mercuria will prepay up to $100mn to ERG in return for a three-year secured copper supply stream. This ERG Mercuria copper supply agreement reinforces trade-finance links between miners and global commodity traders at a time of tightening credit conditions.

Prepayment structure anchors ERG Mercuria copper supply agreement

The agreement centres on structured prepayments that lock in volumes from ERG’s DRC assets. Frontier remains ERG’s main copper site in the country, providing primary concentrates and metal to back the ERG Mercuria copper supply agreement. Meanwhile, Metalkol reprocesses legacy tailings, supplying both copper and cobalt into global battery and alloy markets.

Mercuria’s prepayment reduces ERG’s funding risk and secures long-term offtake. As a result, the ERG Mercuria copper supply agreement strengthens both sides’ balance sheets by matching upstream production visibility with downstream marketing reach. The structure follows a proven model in commodity trade finance, where traders exchange early capital for future physical flows.

DRC copper, cobalt and ferrochrome in a strategic portfolio

ERG already ranks as a major producer of cobalt and ferrochrome, alongside its copper and iron ore businesses. Therefore the new deal gives Mercuria broader optionality across critical minerals and base metals exposure, starting with copper from the DRC. Frontier and Metalkol sit within a wider African portfolio that feeds global smelting, refining and battery precursor capacity.

However, growing reliance on DRC output keeps ESG, logistics and regulatory risk firmly in focus for both partners. Supply security, community relations and power availability will remain key constraints on how far the ERG Mercuria copper supply agreement can scale. Still, the deal underlines ongoing appetite from traders to tie up strategic volumes at the mine gate.

Focus keyphrases: ERG Mercuria copper supply agreement, DRC copper supply, Frontier copper mine, Metalkol cobalt and copper, commodity trade finance

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement highlights how prepay-backed copper offtakes remain central to funding DRC assets in a higher-rate world. By tightening links between ERG and Mercuria, the deal concentrates marketing power over high-grade African copper at a time of structural energy transition demand. For OEMs and smelters, it is another reminder that access to units increasingly runs through a handful of well-capitalised traders.

Tia Maria copper mine production permit reshapes Peru’s copper future

Southern Peru Copper

The Tia Maria copper mine production permit marks a major turning point for Peru’s copper pipeline. Peru’s energy and mining ministry has cleared Southern Peru Copper to begin production at the long-delayed project. As a result, a stalled $1.8bn investment is now back on track, with first output targeted for 2027.

Political shift unlocks stalled Peruvian copper project

The Tia Maria copper mine production permit is one of the first significant decisions under president Jose Jeri. His new cabinet inherits a project blocked since 2019 by intense community resistance and criticism of its environmental impact study. However, regulators approved an updated study last year after the company dropped plans to use a desalination plant as its main water source.

Meanwhile, the permit comes amid national demonstrations against the new administration, including protests in Arequipa. That context raises the risk that opposition could re-emerge as construction ramps up. Therefore, Southern Peru Copper will need strong community engagement if it wants to avoid renewed roadblocks.

Southern said it expects to restart construction before year-end, targeting 120,000 t/yr of copper output. The Tia Maria copper mine production permit thus adds a sizeable greenfield project to Peru’s medium-term supply outlook. The mine would join Quellaveco — commissioned in 2022 — as the country’s newest large copper operation.

Peru copper supply, community risk and market impact

Peru remains one of the world’s top copper producers, with 1.8mn t output so far this year. However, production fell by 2pc in August versus a year earlier, underlining operational and social headwinds. Southern is currently the country’s second-largest copper producer, at 15pc of national output, narrowly behind Las Bambas.

As a result, successful delivery of Tia Maria would strengthen Peru’s role in meeting future copper demand. The project’s 120,000 t/yr could help offset disruptions elsewhere in the Andean copper belt. Yet social licence remains the key variable, especially in water-stressed regions with strong local opposition.

Global buyers and traders will watch whether project execution proceeds without major conflict. Any renewed escalation around Tia Maria could trigger further delays or even another suspension. Therefore, the project now sits at the intersection of politics, community relations and global copper supply security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tia Maria’s approval signals that Lima is willing to push strategic mining projects despite social and political tension. If Southern can stabilise community relations, the project will reinforce Peru’s standing as a core long-term copper supplier. But any misstep could become a cautionary tale on how environmental trust and local consent now define project viability.

Antofagasta Copper Output Falls as Los Pelambres and Centinela Weigh on First Quarter

Antofagasta

Antofagasta copper output fell in the first quarter of 2026 as lower production at Los Pelambres and Centinela reduced group supply. The Chilean miner produced 143,000t of copper during the quarter, down 7.6% from a year earlier.

The decline also affected sales. Antofagasta copper sales fell by 19.5% on the year to 137,000t, reflecting weaker quarterly output and the timing of shipments.

Antofagasta copper output is expected to improve through the year as maintenance at Los Pelambres is completed and ore processing rates and grades recover. The company expects 2026 production to rise quarter on quarter after the first-quarter slowdown.

The result is important for the copper market because Chile remains one of the world’s most important supply regions. Any operational weakness at major Chilean producers can influence concentrate availability, refined copper expectations and market sentiment.

Los Pelambres Maintenance and Centinela Grades Hit Copper Supply

Los Pelambres remained Antofagasta’s largest copper producer in the first quarter, but output fell by 5.2% on the year to 66,300t. The decline was mainly caused by ongoing major plant maintenance.

Maintenance-related weakness is usually temporary, but it can still affect quarterly supply. Los Pelambres is a key asset for Antofagasta, so any reduction in availability has a direct impact on group production.

Centinela recorded a sharper decline. First-quarter copper output at the unit fell by 12.4% on the year to 48,700t.

Centinela concentrate production edged down by 0.6% to 35,700t because of lower grades and weaker ore processing rates. Cathode output fell much more sharply, dropping by 34.3% on the year to 13,000t.

The performance shows that Antofagasta’s production pressure was not limited to one mine. Maintenance at Los Pelambres, lower grades at Centinela and weaker cathode output all contributed to the first-quarter decline.

Output also softened at the group’s smaller assets. Antucoya production fell by 3% on the year to 19,600t, while Zaldivar output decreased by 7.8% to 8,300t.

This broad decline highlights the operational challenge facing copper producers. Even when demand fundamentals remain supportive, mine output can be affected by maintenance schedules, ore grades, processing rates and asset maturity.

Molybdenum Holds Relatively Stable as Copper Recovery Depends on Operations

Antofagasta’s molybdenum production was relatively stable compared with copper. Group molybdenum output reached 3,000t in the first quarter, down 3.2% from the same period last year.

The result reflected a balance between higher molybdenum recoveries and lower ore processing rates. This helped limit the decline despite weaker copper throughput at key concentrators.

Molybdenum output at Centinela fell by 12.5% on the year to 700t. Los Pelambres molybdenum production remained unchanged at 2,300t, helping stabilise the group result.

Molybdenum remains strategically important because it is used in stainless steel, special steels, energy infrastructure, defence applications and high-performance alloys. Stable molybdenum by-product output can support revenue diversity when copper production weakens.

For copper, the key issue is the second-quarter recovery. Completion of Los Pelambres maintenance should support stronger output, while improved grades and processing rates at Centinela would be needed to rebuild production momentum.

Antofagasta copper output will therefore depend less on market conditions and more on operational execution in the coming quarters. If maintenance ends smoothly and grades improve, the first quarter may prove to be a temporary low point.

Still, the result reinforces a broader copper supply theme. Global copper demand is increasingly tied to grids, electrification and industrial investment, but mine supply remains vulnerable to operational delays, lower grades and maintenance disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Antofagasta’s first-quarter decline looks operational rather than structural, but it still matters for copper supply sentiment. The market will watch whether Los Pelambres rebounds after maintenance and whether Centinela can restore grade and processing performance.

Nornickel Nickel Output Holds Flat as Copper and PGM Production Decline

Nornickel

Nornickel nickel output was broadly stable in the first quarter, while the Russian multi-metals producer reported lower copper and platinum group metal production from a high year-earlier base. Consolidated nickel production edged up by 0.3% on the year to 41,746t in January-March.

Nornickel nickel output stability contrasts with weaker copper, palladium and platinum volumes. Copper output fell by 10% to 98,679t, palladium production dropped by 18% to 608,000oz, and platinum output declined by 24% to 136,000oz.

Nornickel said the lower copper and PGM figures reflected a high production base in the first quarter of 2025 and the redistribution of commercial product volumes between quarters. The company maintained its full-year 2026 production guidance.

The result shows that Nornickel nickel output remains comparatively steady, while quarterly copper and PGM figures can move sharply because of timing, ore processing patterns and product shipment schedules.

Nickel Stability Supports Core Production Outlook

Nickel remains one of Nornickel’s most important products because of its role in stainless steel, high-performance alloys, batteries and industrial manufacturing. Stable first-quarter output suggests that the company’s core nickel operations remain within its planned production range.

Nornickel kept its 2026 Russian feedstock guidance unchanged at 193,000-203,000t for nickel. This indicates that the company does not currently view the flat first-quarter result as a signal of operational weakness.

The nickel market remains sensitive to supply from Russia because Nornickel is a major producer of high-grade material. Even when global nickel markets face oversupply from Indonesian growth, Russian nickel still has strategic relevance for stainless steel, alloy and battery-linked consumers.

Copper showed a weaker quarterly result. Output from the company’s own Russian feedstock, excluding Trans-Baikal, totalled 80,000t during the period.

However, the Bystrinsky copper project in the Trans-Baikal division performed better. Copper in concentrate output rose by 6% on the year to 18,545t, supported by higher ore processing volumes and higher metal content in ore.

This improvement at Bystrinsky partly offsets the wider copper decline. It also shows the importance of ore grade and processing throughput in quarterly copper performance.

Nornickel maintained its 2026 Russian feedstock copper guidance at 336,000-356,000t. Guidance for Trans-Baikal copper in concentrate also remained unchanged at 69,000-73,000t.

PGM Decline Reflects Timing Rather Than Guidance Change

Nornickel’s platinum group metals output fell sharply in the first quarter, but the company did not adjust its full-year forecast. Palladium output fell by 18%, while platinum declined by 24%.

The company attributed the weaker figures to a high comparison base and quarterly timing effects in commercial products. This suggests the decline may not translate directly into lower full-year supply.

Nornickel kept its 2026 palladium guidance at 2.415mn-2.465mn oz and platinum guidance at 616,000-636,000oz. These metals remain important for automotive catalysts, electronics, chemicals, hydrogen technologies, jewellery and industrial applications.

The PGM market remains highly concentrated, with Russia and South Africa playing major roles in primary supply. Any sustained change in Russian production can therefore influence availability, trade flows and customer procurement strategies.

For buyers, the first-quarter data point to the need to separate operational weakness from quarterly timing. Lower reported output can affect sentiment, but unchanged guidance suggests Nornickel expects production to normalise across the year.

The broader strategic issue remains Russian supply exposure. Nornickel’s metals are important to global nickel, copper and PGM supply chains, but geopolitical risk, sanctions compliance and trade route uncertainty continue to shape how buyers handle Russian-origin material.

The first-quarter result therefore carries a mixed message. Nickel output remained stable, Bystrinsky copper improved, and full-year guidance was unchanged. However, lower copper and PGM production underline the importance of monitoring quarterly timing, product flows and operating consistency.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nornickel’s first-quarter figures suggest stability in nickel but greater quarterly volatility in copper and PGMs. For global buyers, the bigger issue is not only production volume, but how Russian-origin metals move through increasingly complex trade and compliance channels.

Vicuña Copper Project Financing Moves Lundin Closer to Top-Tier Copper Growth

Vicuña Copper Project

Vicuña copper project financing is now a defining step in Lundin Mining’s long-term growth strategy. The company secured commitments of up to $4.5bn to advance the Argentina-Chile copper-gold-silver project. That is a major increase from the earlier $1.75bn package. As a result, Vicuña copper project financing gives Lundin a much stronger platform for future expansion.

This matters because the Lundin Vicuña project is one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper districts. Lundin says the project could produce more than 500,000 metric tonnes a year once fully operational. That level of output would materially change the company’s global position. Therefore, Vicuña copper project financing is not only a funding story. It is a scale story.

Lundin Vicuña Project Gains a More Flexible Capital Structure

Lundin Vicuña project now has a financing structure built for phased development. Total commitments under the amended facility reach $4.5bn. Lundin can initially draw $2.25bn, with the facility expanding as key conditions are met. As a result, the capital package gives the company more flexibility as the project advances.

The structure also supports staged execution. The facility can rise to $3.5bn after certain milestones and then to the full $4.5bn after Stage 1 is sanctioned. Its maturity will also extend to 2031. Therefore, Vicuña copper project financing is designed to match the project’s development timeline rather than force a single upfront funding leap.

This approach matters in large copper projects. Capital intensity is high, timelines are long, and execution risk remains significant. A facility that expands with project progress gives lenders and developers a more disciplined framework. Meanwhile, it shows confidence that Vicuña can move from development into a sanctioned growth asset.

Vicuña Copper Output Could Redefine Lundin’s Position

Vicuña copper output is the real strategic prize behind this financing. Lundin wants to become a top-10 copper producer as Vicuña reaches full production. A project targeting more than 500,000 t/yr would give that ambition real credibility. Consequently, the Lundin Vicuña project could become one of the company’s most important long-term assets.

The partnership with BHP also strengthens that outlook. Lundin is advancing the project with one of the world’s largest mining groups. That adds technical weight, project experience, and broader strategic importance. As a result, Vicuña copper project financing is reinforced by a partnership structure that the market is likely to take seriously.

The broader copper context makes the story even more important. Large new copper projects are increasingly valuable as future supply growth looks harder to secure. A district with scale, financing support, and a major operating partner stands out. Therefore, Vicuña copper output could matter well beyond Lundin’s own portfolio.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This financing matters because it turns Vicuña into a more credible growth engine, not just a large undeveloped resource. The biggest takeaway is scale with structure. Lundin now has a stronger path toward building one of the copper sector’s most important next-generation projects.

Lundin Mining Copper Production Holds Steady as Chilean Assets Drive Record Year

Lundin Mining

Lundin Mining copper production held broadly steady in the fourth quarter of 2025, helping the Canadian miner deliver record full-year copper output. The performance reinforces the strategic importance of Chilean assets in Lundin’s portfolio as global copper producers compete to secure growth in a tightening long-term supply market.

The company produced 331,232t of copper in 2025, placing Lundin Mining copper production in the upper half of its revised guidance range of 319,000-337,000t. The result was supported mainly by strong performance at Candelaria and Caserones in Chile, where higher throughput, better recoveries, and increased cathode production strengthened the group’s operating base.

Lundin Mining copper production also remained stable into the end of the year. Fourth-quarter output reached 87,032t, compared with 84,999t in the third quarter. That stability matters because copper buyers are watching not only new project pipelines, but also the ability of established producers to deliver reliable tonnes from existing assets.

Chilean Operations Strengthen Lundin’s Copper Platform

Candelaria remained Lundin’s largest copper-producing asset in 2025, delivering 145,471t of copper. The operation continues to anchor the company’s near-term supply profile and gives Lundin a strong position in one of the world’s most important copper mining jurisdictions.

Caserones also played a central role in the record year, contributing 132,881t of copper. The asset benefited from higher throughput, improved recoveries, and increased cathode output. It also achieved its highest quarterly production since Lundin acquired the operation in mid-2023, showing that the asset is becoming a more productive part of the group.

Chapada in Brazil added 43,974t of copper during the year, giving Lundin a broader South American production base beyond Chile. Gold production reached 141,859oz in 2025, while nickel production totalled 9,907t. Both were within or above guidance, supporting the company’s wider metals portfolio even as copper remains the core strategic focus.

Stable 2026 Guidance Keeps Focus on Efficiency and Growth

Lundin expects copper production to remain broadly stable at 310,000-335,000t in 2026. This suggests the company is entering the year with a focus on cost optimisation, operating discipline, and asset efficiency rather than a sharp near-term volume expansion.

Nickel output fell to 2,174t in the fourth quarter from 2,724t in the third quarter, but the result remained aligned with operational expectations. Rehabilitation work at Eagle East in the United States helped restore mining and processing rates earlier in the year, supporting a more stable operating base.

Longer term, Lundin’s growth strategy depends on asset optimisation and new project development. Further improvements at Caserones could support incremental copper gains, while the Vicuna project with BHP represents a larger strategic growth pathway. If advanced successfully, these initiatives could strengthen Lundin’s position as a more important copper producer in the global energy transition supply chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lundin’s 2025 performance shows why operational reliability is becoming as valuable as headline growth in copper mining. In a market increasingly defined by permitting delays and project scarcity, stable output from Chilean and Brazilian assets can carry real strategic weight.