US copper scrap exports rise in July

Copper Scrap

US copper scrap exports rise in July as buyers shift from China to other Asian markets. Total copper scrap exports rose 16pc year on year to 29,005t, extending a three-month uptrend amid changing trade flows. However, weakness in China’s economy and property sector curbed its intake every month since December, forcing US suppliers to diversify destinations. Meanwhile, US copper scrap exports rise in July also reflects pre-emptive buying before proposed US tariffs intended to promote domestic sourcing. Therefore, exporters leaned into stronger demand from Japan and India, while China-bound volumes collapsed.

Trade flows pivot to Japan and India

US copper scrap exports rise in July with Japan showing the largest gain, adding 4,973t of receipts. As a result, shipments to China fell by 95pc, a drop of 11,081t, underscoring a decisive market pivot. Moreover, bare bright volumes surged 120pc to 13,200t on increased exports to India, offsetting declines in #1 and #2 grades. However, #1 copper scrap slipped 3pc to 8,916t as China took just 135t versus 5,288t a year earlier. Exports of #2 scrap fell 30pc to 6,888t, marking an eighth straight monthly decline led by a 98pc collapse to China.

Price arbitrage widens discounts and drives opportunistic sales

US copper scrap exports rise in July amid record CME pricing and wider arbitrage. The CME next-active copper contract averaged $5.48/lb, up $1.12/lb from July 2024, and set a $5.82/lb daily high. Consequently, Asian #1 scrap discounts widened to an average 83¢/lb under CME versus 25¢/lb a year earlier. Consumers still paid $4.65/lb for #1 scrap, 54¢/lb more year on year, reflecting exchange-linked uplift. Meanwhile, an average $1.08/lb arbitrage, up from 45¢/lb in June, encouraged July buying as market participants positioned around proposed US trade measures. The announced 50pc duty on copper cathodes slated for 1 August was not implemented, but the signaling effect supported mid-summer export activity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The shift away from China and toward Japan and India confirms a structural re-routing of US copper scrap. Watch discounts versus CME and policy headlines as leading indicators for Q4 flows, while grade-mix dynamics may continue to favor bare bright over #1 and #2.