LME Copper Cathode Supply Could Rise as Chinese Smelters Push EQ Listings

Chinese Copper

LME copper cathode supply could increase as more Chinese smelters seek to register equivalent quality cathodes on the London Metal Exchange. The move reflects a push to capture higher premiums for material that is close to LME-registered brands in quality.

The near-term impact on LME copper cathode supply is likely to be limited. However, more registrations could gradually widen deliverable copper availability and give buyers more alternatives to traditional registered cathode brands.

Chinese smelters are targeting the premium gap between EQ cathode and fully registered material. African-origin registered copper usually earns a higher premium than EQ cathode, but it still trades below Chilean registered brands because many African cathodes are solvent-extraction and electrowinning products with slightly higher impurity levels.

DRC Cathode Listings Expand China-Linked LME Supply

The London Metal Exchange recently approved China Nonferrous Mining’s SMD copper cathode brand for listing. The brand is produced at the Deziwa project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has copper cathode capacity of 80,000 t/yr.

The Deziwa project is jointly owned by CNMC and the DRC’s state-owned mining company. It hosts 4.6mn t of copper metal resources and 420,000t of cobalt metal resources, giving it strategic value across both copper and battery metal supply chains.

CNMC’s production profile also shows a shift toward more refined copper output. The group produced 130,232t of copper cathode in 2025, up 3% from a year earlier, while copper blister output fell by 33% to 192,266t.

The LME has also approved CMOC’s TFM 1 copper cathode brand for listing. That brand is produced at Tenke Fungurume in the DRC, reinforcing the country’s growing role in exchange-deliverable copper supply.

Premium Strategy Could Reshape Refined Copper Trade Flows

LME copper cathode supply strategy is becoming more important as Chinese-linked producers look to improve market access and price realisation. Listing cathode brands can improve buyer acceptance, increase liquidity and narrow discounts against established registered brands.

The DRC is already China’s largest source of copper cathode imports. China imported 1.44mn t of copper cathode from the DRC in 2025, equal to 37.6% of total imports.

More LME-approved DRC brands could change how buyers view African cathode. If quality, documentation and deliverability improve, some buyers may become less dependent on higher-premium registered material from other origins.

Still, the immediate effect should remain modest. LME registration does not automatically mean large volumes will flow onto warrant, but it does increase optionality for producers, traders and consumers in a market where brand status affects pricing power.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Chinese EQ cathode push shows that copper competition is moving into brand approval, deliverability and premium capture. The bigger implication is that DRC copper is becoming not only a Chinese import source, but a growing part of the LME-recognised refined copper system.

Namibian Copper Assets Move Toward 2027 Restart as CCC Targets Brownfield Growth

Consolidated Copper Corporation

Namibian copper assets are moving back into focus as Consolidated Copper Corporation prepares to restart its Central Operations project in October 2027. The plan could add meaningful concentrate supply from Namibia at a time when copper buyers are seeking stable, diversified sources outside traditional high-risk jurisdictions.

Central Operations includes the Otjihase and Matchless underground copper mines. CCC expects 2028 to be the first full year of production, with copper concentrate output above 23,000t. Output is then expected to rise to more than 35,000t in 2029 and exceed 45,000t by 2033.

The restart also shows how brownfield copper assets can become strategically valuable in a tight global market. CCC is not building an entirely new mining system from scratch. Instead, it is rehabilitating existing operations, using established infrastructure, and scaling production as mining capacity improves.

Central Operations Highlights Namibia’s Brownfield Copper Potential

Namibian copper assets offer CCC a lower-risk route to growth because existing mines and processing infrastructure can shorten development timelines. In the initial phase, mining capacity will limit concentrate output more than concentrator capacity. CCC expects to use only one-third to one-half of the plant’s capacity at first, depending on how quickly ore production ramps up.

This approach reflects a broader shift in copper development strategy. As greenfield projects become slower, more expensive, and more exposed to permitting risk, brownfield restarts can offer faster supply additions. Namibia’s advantage lies in combining geological potential with a relatively stable operating environment.

CCC’s wider portfolio supports that strategy. The company also operates the Tschudi copper mine and owns Berg Aukas, a former zinc mine under redevelopment evaluation. At Tschudi, CCC has produced 6,946t of copper cathode since June 2024 from residual copper in an existing heap, including 3,237t in 2025.

Sulphuric Acid Supply Becomes a Strategic Constraint

Sulphuric acid supply is becoming a key cost and logistics issue for copper producers in Namibia and southern Africa. CCC has consumed 29,473t of sulphuric acid to date, including 15,432t in 2025. This highlights how copper output increasingly depends not only on ore and processing capacity, but also on reliable chemical supply chains.

Tschudi has a nameplate capacity of 17,000 t/yr of copper cathode. Production reached 6,000-7,000t in the first year and is expected to rise to 14,000-15,000t by year three or four. However, tight acid markets could influence operating costs, procurement strategy, and the pace of regional copper growth.

Namibia is also attracting broader copper development interest. Projects such as Koryx Copper’s Haib and New Horizon Copper’s Kombat mine show that the country is building a more visible position in the African copper pipeline. As buyers look for supply diversification, Namibia’s ability to provide regulatory stability and faster project execution could become a competitive advantage.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CCC’s restart plan shows why brownfield copper assets are becoming strategically important in the energy transition supply chain. Namibia’s opportunity is not only geological; it is also about infrastructure, policy stability, and secure inputs such as sulphuric acid.

Hailiang Saudi Copper JV Targets Middle East Processing Growth

Rawas

Hailiang Saudi copper JV plans will give Chinese copper products producer Zhejiang Hailiang a new manufacturing platform in Saudi Arabia. The company plans to form a joint venture with Saudi investment firm Rawas to build a $566mn copper processing plant at the port of Dammam.

The Hailiang Saudi copper JV is planned with 150,000 t/yr of copper processing capacity. The plant will include copper pipes, copper bars, recycled copper and copper foil, giving the project a broad downstream product mix.

The agreement gives Hailiang a 51% stake in the venture, while Rawas will hold 49%. The project still requires approval from the Saudi government and Hailiang’s shareholders before the partners finalise the investment.

The Hailiang Saudi copper JV reflects a wider shift in the copper products industry. Chinese processors are increasingly looking overseas to secure market access, reduce trade exposure and position closer to growth regions in the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

Dammam Plant Adds Copper Foil and Recycling Capacity

The planned Dammam plant will include 30,000 t/yr of copper pipe capacity and 20,000 t/yr of copper bar capacity. These products support construction, cooling systems, power infrastructure, industrial equipment and manufacturing supply chains.

The project also includes 50,000 t/yr of recycled copper capacity. This is strategically important because copper scrap is becoming a more valuable feedstock as concentrate markets tighten and buyers seek lower-carbon copper units.

The planned 50,000 t/yr of copper foil capacity adds a higher-value growth angle. Copper foil is used in batteries, electronics, printed circuit boards and advanced electrical applications. That gives the project relevance beyond traditional copper tube and bar markets.

The product mix suggests Hailiang is not only targeting commodity copper processing. It is building a downstream platform that can serve infrastructure, energy, electronics and battery-related demand from one regional base.

Dammam also offers logistical value. A port location can support raw material imports, finished product exports and access to Gulf, African and European customers. This could help Hailiang build a wider regional distribution network.

Saudi Arabia Gains Value-Added Copper Manufacturing Role

Hailiang said it aims to capitalise on Saudi Arabia’s copper ore resources, energy cost advantages and policy environment. These factors align with Saudi Arabia’s wider ambition to expand industrial manufacturing and mineral value chains.

For Saudi Arabia, the project could support a shift from resource availability toward value-added processing. Copper products are increasingly important for grids, buildings, cooling systems, EV infrastructure, renewable energy and industrial electrification.

The inclusion of recycled copper also fits the growing importance of circular metal supply. If Saudi Arabia can combine scrap collection, energy advantages and downstream manufacturing, it could strengthen its role in regional copper supply chains.

However, the project faces uncertainty. Hailiang said it is closely monitoring Middle East developments and their potential impact on site selection, construction progress, personnel safety and future operations.

The construction timeline has not yet been fixed. The partners will determine the schedule according to market conditions after the joint-venture agreement receives the required approvals.

This cautious approach is important. Middle East industrial projects can offer strong energy and logistics advantages, but geopolitical risk, financing timing, permitting and supply-chain security can still affect execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hailiang’s Saudi venture shows how Chinese copper processors are internationalising downstream capacity, not only exporting products. The project’s real value lies in combining copper foil, recycling and regional market access inside Saudi Arabia’s industrial diversification strategy.

US Tariffs Pressure Copper Prices and Curb China’s Scrap Imports

China Copper

US tariffs, introduced by President Donald Trump on April 2, have significantly impacted global copper prices. The tariffs, set at a minimum 10% tax on all foreign imports, have caused concerns about weakened copper demand, particularly from key industries that rely on copper, such as automobiles and home appliances. China’s copper scrap imports are also under pressure due to retaliatory tariffs, which will be implemented by China on April 10.

Impact of Tariffs on Copper Prices

Following the announcement of tariffs, copper prices saw a dramatic decline. As of April 7, London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper prices fell to a one-year low of $8,105 per ton, a significant drop from $9,721 per ton on April 2. Similarly, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) prices also plummeted to a three-month low of 73,640 yuan per ton from 79,890 yuan per ton during the same period.

Although copper itself is not directly affected by the new tariffs, the downstream sectors, such as automotive manufacturing and home appliances, face substantial tariffs. This will likely depress demand for copper, as these industries represent significant end-users of copper products.

US Tariffs on Cars and Appliances Affect Copper Demand

A 25% tariff on imported cars and trucks came into effect on April 3, with a further 25% tax on auto parts set to follow in May. The US light vehicle market saw significant growth in 2024, with sales climbing to 16.8 million units. Similarly, the US imported $23.5 billion worth of home appliances from China in 2024. These appliances, including cooling devices and electronics, represented 23% of global copper demand in 2023. The imposition of tariffs on these goods will likely lead to a reduction in copper demand from the US.

On a positive note, lower copper prices may drive copper fabricators to restock in the short term, especially after a significant price drop in late March. Data from the SHFE shows that copper stocks fell from 256,328 tons on March 21 to 225,736 tons by April 3, as downstream buyers rushed to purchase copper cathode in response to falling prices.

China’s Retaliatory Tariffs and Copper Scrap Imports

China’s planned tariffs on US copper scrap, set to take effect on April 10, will impact copper supply in the country. In 2024, China imported over 440,000 tons of copper scrap from the US, accounting for nearly 20% of its total copper scrap imports. However, market participants predict that some traders will attempt to bypass the tariffs by sourcing US-origin copper scrap from other countries.

In February, US copper scrap exports fell by 10% compared to the previous year, with China seeing the largest drop in imports. This decrease in exports can be attributed to tariff expectations, which have made it difficult for US exporters to remain competitive. The large spread between CME and LME prices has further strained export options, leaving US dealers with excess scrap volumes.

Limited Impact on Copper Concentrate and Cathode Supplies

China’s retaliatory tariffs are expected to have a minimal impact on its domestic copper concentrate and cathode supply. In 2024, China imported just 460,000 tons of copper concentrate and 1,575 tons of copper cathode from the US, representing only a small fraction of its total imports. Therefore, the retaliatory tariffs are unlikely to cause significant disruptions to these supply chains.

EQ copper premiums set to climb in 2026 as China embraces DRC supply

Copper

EQ copper premiums are poised to rise in 2026 as China deepens its adoption of equivalent-quality cathodes sourced from the DRC. Market participants expect EQ copper premiums to move sharply higher from today’s levels, reflecting tighter discounts in the DRC and shifting global trade flows. As a result, EQ copper premiums are becoming a critical signal for Chinese fabricators and global copper traders alike.

EQ copper premiums linked to DRC discounts and shifting trade flows

EQ copper premiums today sit around $30–35/t cif Shanghai, but traders already flag upside for 2026. This year’s term deals for EQ copper premiums were agreed at just $5–10/t, so a move toward $30/t would mark a structural reset. The key driver is cost escalation in the DRC, where discounts to LME prices have narrowed as local prices firm.

Meanwhile, rapid production growth in the DRC has transformed EQ copper’s role in China’s import mix. EQ copper cathode, largely DRC-origin, now accounts for more than a third of China’s cathode imports, up from about 10pc in 2020. At the same time, Chilean cathode has been diverted toward the US, amid tariff speculation, with China’s imports from Chile falling by 45pc year on year in January–August 2025. Therefore EQ copper premiums increasingly reflect both DRC mine economics and changing global copper trade patterns.

EQ copper premiums narrow the gap to exchange-listed cathode

The premium spread between exchange-registered cathodes and EQ copper premiums has narrowed to roughly $30/t this month. Previously, the spread hovered around $50/t in the second quarter, when Chinese buyers still favoured exchange-listed cathodes. However, rising flat prices and tighter LME–SHFE arbitrage have pushed many fabricators toward EQ material.

Chinese cable makers and fabricators now treat EQ cathode as a mainstream choice, thanks to reliable quality and lower all-in costs. As a result, EQ copper premiums are no longer a marginal discount indicator but a core benchmark in the Chinese physical market. At the same time, SuperMetalPrice launch of a dedicated EQ copper import premium assessment formalises this shift and gives traders a clearer pricing reference tied to the LME cash price.

EQ copper premiums sit within a wider zinc and copper premium realignment

EQ copper premiums are rising against a backdrop of broader base metal premium recalibration. Domestic Grade-A copper premiums in China, referenced to SHFE front-month, remain in a modest band from a slight discount to a small premium. Import arbitrage has improved, with the newly assessed copper cathode arbitrage at -Yn280/t, up from deeper negative levels earlier in September, which supports seaborne interest.

At the same time, zinc and other base metal premiums remain capped by weak downstream demand, even as LME stock draws offer support. This creates an unusual environment where EQ copper premiums strengthen on supply and trade-flow dynamics, while broader consumption indicators stay soft. For global traders, EQ copper premiums now sit at the intersection of DRC mine supply, Chinese import arbitrage, and evolving risk pricing around non-exchange material.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EQ copper premiums are emerging as a strategic barometer for China’s copper supply security and DRC exposure. If 2026 term negotiations lock in markedly higher EQ copper premiums, that will confirm EQ cathode’s shift from discount alternative to benchmark feedstock. Watch how Chile–US trade flows and DRC discount behaviour evolve, because both will dictate whether EQ copper premiums continue to climb beyond the $30/t threshold.

CMOC Copper Output Rose in 2025 on Stronger DRC Production

Copper Wire

CMOC copper output increased in 2025 as the Chinese diversified metals producer lifted production from its copper-cobalt operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The company produced 741,100t of copper during the year, up 14% from 2024.

The increase was driven by higher output from both the Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine and the Kisanfu copper-cobalt mine. These assets remain central to CMOC’s copper growth strategy and to China’s access to African copper cathode supply.

CMOC copper output is expected to rise again in 2026, with the company targeting production of 760,000-820,000t. CMOC also plans to expand copper production at Kisanfu by another 100,000 t/yr in 2027.

DRC Assets Strengthen CMOC’s Copper Growth Platform

CMOC’s production growth reinforces the strategic importance of the DRC in global copper supply. The country has become one of the most important sources of copper cathode for China, supported by large-scale mining, solvent extraction and electrowinning capacity.

Tenke Fungurume remains a key asset in this system. The mine has copper cathode capacity of 270,000 t/yr, and its TFM-1 copper cathode brand was approved by the London Metal Exchange for listing on 27 March.

The LME approval strengthens the marketability of CMOC’s DRC-produced copper. Exchange-listed status can improve brand recognition, liquidity and acceptance among global buyers, especially in refined copper markets where cathode quality and deliverability matter.

China’s Copper Supply Chain Leans Heavily on DRC Cathode

The DRC remained China’s largest source of copper cathode imports in 2025. China imported 1.44mn t of copper cathode from the country, accounting for 37.6% of total imports.

This trade flow highlights the depth of China’s dependence on DRC copper supply. As domestic demand from grids, manufacturing, electric vehicles and energy infrastructure continues, stable access to DRC cathode remains strategically important.

CMOC copper output growth also has wider market implications. Additional production from Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu can help offset disruptions in other copper regions, but it also increases the role of African supply in balancing global refined copper markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CMOC’s 2025 copper growth shows how the DRC has become a core pillar of China’s refined copper security. The next strategic question is whether rising African cathode supply can remain reliable amid infrastructure, policy and geopolitical risks.

Gunnison Copper first cathode production boosts US copper supply ambitions

Gunnison Copper

Gunnison Copper first cathode production marks a key milestone for US domestic copper supply. The company produced its first copper cathode at the Johnson Camp Mine in Arizona in late August, ahead of schedule. As a result, the Gunnison Copper first cathode production strengthens US efforts to secure critical minerals for energy transition.

Early ramp-up at Johnson Camp Mine underpins new US copper source

Gunnison Copper first cathode production follows the successful start of solvent extraction and electrowinning operations. The company began running its SX plant and EW circuit in August, using run-of-mine ore from the Arizona site. Therefore, the project now moves from development into early ramp-up, which often proves pivotal for leaching projects.

The company expects to produce 25mn lbs per year of copper cathode, equal to about 11,300 tonnes. This scale does not rival major Chilean or Peruvian mines, yet it still matters for US niche supply. Meanwhile, the focus on finished cathode production rather than concentrates aligns with growing demand from North American smelters and fabricators.

Funding support highlights the broader strategic value of this new copper stream. The Johnson Camp Mine received backing from Nuton, a Rio Tinto venture focused on innovative copper technologies. In addition, the project secured $13.9mn in US Department of Energy tax credits in January to support domestic copper production.

Strategic context for US energy transition and critical minerals policy

The Gunnison Copper first cathode production arrives as policymakers push for more resilient US copper supply chains. Copper demand continues to rise across electric vehicles, renewable power and grid upgrades. Therefore, new SX–EW operations like Johnson Camp help reduce dependence on imported copper units.

Federal tax credits signal Washington’s willingness to support qualifying critical mineral projects. As a result, projects such as Johnson Camp can de-risk early capital phases and accelerate commissioning schedules. However, Gunnison Copper must still deliver consistent production performance, maintain environmental compliance and manage operating costs in Arizona’s competitive mining landscape.

For investors and copper buyers, the project offers modest but meaningful additional US cathode volumes. It may also showcase Nuton and Rio Tinto’s broader technology and partnership model for brownfield and mid-scale assets. Over time, similar projects could play a larger role in regional copper balance and contract pricing dynamics.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Gunnison Copper’s first cathode production at Johnson Camp illustrates how smaller US projects can still punch above their weight in policy terms. While volumes remain limited, the combination of Nuton funding and DOE tax support shows how technology and incentives now shape copper growth. Market participants should watch ramp-up performance closely, since SX–EW reliability will determine whether this asset becomes a durable pillar of US cathode supply.

Kinterra Arizona copper project acquisition boosts US critical copper capacity

Kinterra Arizona Copper Project

Kinterra Arizona copper project acquisition marks a major expansion of the firm’s US copper footprint. The Kinterra Arizona copper project adds the Antler Copper Project to an existing portfolio in Michigan and Nevada. As a result, the Kinterra Arizona copper project positions the firm as a meaningful mid-tier copper player in North America.

Kinterra Arizona copper project strengthens multi-asset US platform

Kinterra fully acquired the Antler Copper Project from Australia’s New World Resources. With Antler added, Kinterra will control about 175,000t per year of copper capacity across White Pine, Pumpkin Hollow and Antler. The Antler asset itself is expected to produce 16,400t per year of copper when operational. It will also deliver 34,500t per year of zinc and 3,600t per year of lead as valuable by-products. These multi-metal streams improve project economics and diversify exposure beyond copper alone.

Earlier this year, US officials selected Antler for an expedited critical minerals permitting initiative. This fast-track status aims to compress the usual permitting timeline and support earlier production. All key permits are expected by the first quarter of 2026, with first production targeted for 2027. For downstream buyers, that schedule offers clearer visibility on future North American copper and zinc units.

Kinterra Arizona copper project ties into sulphide leach and cathode strategy

Kinterra is also launching a sulphide leach technology initiative across its US copper portfolio. The programme will assess and develop sulphide leach processing routes that could unlock domestic copper cathode production. Initial testing and pilot plans are expected in early 2026, aligning with the Antler project’s permitting milestones. If successful, this strategy could shift more material from concentrate exports toward higher-value refined cathode within the US.

This processing ambition supports US goals to deepen midstream copper capabilities, not just upstream mining. Integrating mining assets with emerging sulphide leach technologies may also improve recovery rates and lower unit costs over time. For policymakers and OEMs, such investments create additional optionality in a tightening global copper market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Kinterra’s full control of Antler is a textbook example of private equity moving aggressively into critical copper supply. The combination of expedited permitting and sulphide leach innovation could turn this portfolio into a strategic domestic copper platform. Investors will now watch execution risk closely, especially around technology deployment and the 2027 production start.

Lundin Mining Copper Production Holds Steady as Chilean Assets Drive Record Year

Lundin Mining

Lundin Mining copper production held broadly steady in the fourth quarter of 2025, helping the Canadian miner deliver record full-year copper output. The performance reinforces the strategic importance of Chilean assets in Lundin’s portfolio as global copper producers compete to secure growth in a tightening long-term supply market.

The company produced 331,232t of copper in 2025, placing Lundin Mining copper production in the upper half of its revised guidance range of 319,000-337,000t. The result was supported mainly by strong performance at Candelaria and Caserones in Chile, where higher throughput, better recoveries, and increased cathode production strengthened the group’s operating base.

Lundin Mining copper production also remained stable into the end of the year. Fourth-quarter output reached 87,032t, compared with 84,999t in the third quarter. That stability matters because copper buyers are watching not only new project pipelines, but also the ability of established producers to deliver reliable tonnes from existing assets.

Chilean Operations Strengthen Lundin’s Copper Platform

Candelaria remained Lundin’s largest copper-producing asset in 2025, delivering 145,471t of copper. The operation continues to anchor the company’s near-term supply profile and gives Lundin a strong position in one of the world’s most important copper mining jurisdictions.

Caserones also played a central role in the record year, contributing 132,881t of copper. The asset benefited from higher throughput, improved recoveries, and increased cathode output. It also achieved its highest quarterly production since Lundin acquired the operation in mid-2023, showing that the asset is becoming a more productive part of the group.

Chapada in Brazil added 43,974t of copper during the year, giving Lundin a broader South American production base beyond Chile. Gold production reached 141,859oz in 2025, while nickel production totalled 9,907t. Both were within or above guidance, supporting the company’s wider metals portfolio even as copper remains the core strategic focus.

Stable 2026 Guidance Keeps Focus on Efficiency and Growth

Lundin expects copper production to remain broadly stable at 310,000-335,000t in 2026. This suggests the company is entering the year with a focus on cost optimisation, operating discipline, and asset efficiency rather than a sharp near-term volume expansion.

Nickel output fell to 2,174t in the fourth quarter from 2,724t in the third quarter, but the result remained aligned with operational expectations. Rehabilitation work at Eagle East in the United States helped restore mining and processing rates earlier in the year, supporting a more stable operating base.

Longer term, Lundin’s growth strategy depends on asset optimisation and new project development. Further improvements at Caserones could support incremental copper gains, while the Vicuna project with BHP represents a larger strategic growth pathway. If advanced successfully, these initiatives could strengthen Lundin’s position as a more important copper producer in the global energy transition supply chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lundin’s 2025 performance shows why operational reliability is becoming as valuable as headline growth in copper mining. In a market increasingly defined by permitting delays and project scarcity, stable output from Chilean and Brazilian assets can carry real strategic weight.

Global Refined Copper Surplus Expands as Smelter Output Outpaces Demand

Copper

Global refined copper surplus widened sharply in 2025 as refined production grew faster than consumption despite persistent mine disruptions. The International Copper Study Group reported a preliminary surplus of 380,000t, up from 69,000t in 2024, signaling a looser refined market balance than many copper buyers expected.

The global refined copper surplus reached 437,000t after adjusting for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks. This reflected strong refined production growth, particularly in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo, even as mine supply growth remained constrained by operational incidents, lower grades, and major disruptions at key assets.

World refined copper production rose by 4.2pc to 28.54mn t in 2025. Primary output increased by 3.9pc, while secondary production from scrap rose by 5.8pc. The expansion shows that smelting, refining, and recycling capacity can continue lifting refined supply even when mine growth remains limited.

China and the DRC Drive Refined Copper Output Growth

China and the DRC were the main drivers of refined copper production growth in 2025. Together, they account for around 57pc of global refined output and recorded combined growth of about 9pc. Excluding these two countries, world refined production fell by around 1.8pc, showing how concentrated refined copper growth has become.

Asia outside China faced weaker production. Output fell by 3.7pc as maintenance shutdowns in Japan reduced the country’s production by 8.2pc and the Pasar refinery in the Philippines closed. Indonesia added new capacity through the Amman and Manyar smelters, but operational issues and disruptions linked to Grasberg limited the impact.

Chile also weighed on refined supply outside the main growth centres. Refined copper production fell by 10pc, with electrolytic output from concentrates down 16pc amid maintenance shutdowns. SX-EW production also declined by 6.8pc, reinforcing the pressure on one of the world’s most important copper-producing countries.

Mine Disruptions Keep Supply Risk Alive Despite Higher Inventories

Mine production increased by only around 1pc to 23.13mn t in 2025. Concentrate output was broadly flat, while SX-EW output rose by 3pc. New projects supported growth, but lower grades and operational disruptions prevented a stronger mine-side recovery.

Major incidents at Kamoa and Grasberg were especially important. Kamoa’s output fell after a seismic incident, while Indonesian mine production dropped by around 43pc because of lower Batu Hijau output, Grasberg maintenance, and the mud rush incident at Grasberg. These events show why copper supply risk remains high even when refined inventories are rising.

Consumption also grew, but not fast enough to absorb new refined supply. World apparent refined copper usage rose by about 3pc to 28.16mn t. Chinese apparent demand increased by around 4pc, but net refined imports fell by 15pc as imports declined and exports jumped. Outside China, growth in parts of Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa offset weakness in the EU and Japan.

The global refined copper surplus became more visible late in the year. December refined production reached 2.43mn t, while usage was 2.26mn t, creating a monthly surplus of 173,000t. Global refined stocks rose to 1.776mn t at year-end, while exchange stocks at the LME, Comex, and SHFE reached 933,641t at the end of January 2026, the highest level since September 2003.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The global refined copper surplus does not remove copper’s long-term supply challenge, but it changes the near-term market psychology. Copper now faces a split reality: refined metal looks looser, while mine disruptions still threaten the concentrate pipeline behind future supply.

Tia Maria copper mine production permit reshapes Peru’s copper future

Southern Peru Copper

The Tia Maria copper mine production permit marks a major turning point for Peru’s copper pipeline. Peru’s energy and mining ministry has cleared Southern Peru Copper to begin production at the long-delayed project. As a result, a stalled $1.8bn investment is now back on track, with first output targeted for 2027.

Political shift unlocks stalled Peruvian copper project

The Tia Maria copper mine production permit is one of the first significant decisions under president Jose Jeri. His new cabinet inherits a project blocked since 2019 by intense community resistance and criticism of its environmental impact study. However, regulators approved an updated study last year after the company dropped plans to use a desalination plant as its main water source.

Meanwhile, the permit comes amid national demonstrations against the new administration, including protests in Arequipa. That context raises the risk that opposition could re-emerge as construction ramps up. Therefore, Southern Peru Copper will need strong community engagement if it wants to avoid renewed roadblocks.

Southern said it expects to restart construction before year-end, targeting 120,000 t/yr of copper output. The Tia Maria copper mine production permit thus adds a sizeable greenfield project to Peru’s medium-term supply outlook. The mine would join Quellaveco — commissioned in 2022 — as the country’s newest large copper operation.

Peru copper supply, community risk and market impact

Peru remains one of the world’s top copper producers, with 1.8mn t output so far this year. However, production fell by 2pc in August versus a year earlier, underlining operational and social headwinds. Southern is currently the country’s second-largest copper producer, at 15pc of national output, narrowly behind Las Bambas.

As a result, successful delivery of Tia Maria would strengthen Peru’s role in meeting future copper demand. The project’s 120,000 t/yr could help offset disruptions elsewhere in the Andean copper belt. Yet social licence remains the key variable, especially in water-stressed regions with strong local opposition.

Global buyers and traders will watch whether project execution proceeds without major conflict. Any renewed escalation around Tia Maria could trigger further delays or even another suspension. Therefore, the project now sits at the intersection of politics, community relations and global copper supply security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tia Maria’s approval signals that Lima is willing to push strategic mining projects despite social and political tension. If Southern can stabilise community relations, the project will reinforce Peru’s standing as a core long-term copper supplier. But any misstep could become a cautionary tale on how environmental trust and local consent now define project viability.

Hudbay Constancia copper mine restart restores Peru production outlook

Hudbay Minerals

Hudbay Constancia copper mine restart restores production in Peru’s southern corridor after weeks of protest disruption. The Hudbay Constancia copper mine restart brings the mill back to full throughput and stabilises local operations. As a result, ore processing has resumed and the workforce is returning in stages, reducing immediate supply risk from this key asset. Hudbay now reiterates that 2025 copper output should remain within its guidance range of 117,000–149,000t.

Operational recovery at Constancia

Hudbay Constancia copper mine restart follows a temporary shutdown triggered by local protests and road blockades. The disruptions affected inbound supplies and outbound concentrate logistics, highlighting the vulnerability of Peru’s mining corridor to social unrest. However, full mill utilisation means Hudbay can work through short-term stockpiles and normalise concentrate deliveries. This recovery also reassures contractors and local communities that operations, employment and service contracts will continue.

Meanwhile, the restart reduces near-term risk premiums that traders might have attached to Peruvian copper concentrates. Concentrate buyers depend on predictable shipments from large, established mines like Constancia. Therefore, the quick Hudbay Constancia copper mine restart signals that management and authorities have restored minimum transport security, even if underlying social tensions persist.

Guidance intact and market implications

Hudbay’s ability to maintain its 2025 guidance after the Constancia restart sends an important signal to copper markets. Producers that reaffirm guidance after disruptions help anchor expectations around global mine supply. At the same time, recurring protests in Peru remind investors that social licence and community engagement remain critical for long-life copper assets. If future unrest escalates, similar interruptions could again tighten concentrate availability and raise treatment charge volatility.

For now, the restart suggests Hudbay has enough operational flexibility to absorb a short stoppage without revising its annual production plan. However, downstream smelters and physical traders will likely keep contingency plans in place for alternative concentrates. Market participants will monitor whether logistics remain stable through the next contract cycle and whether community negotiations deliver more durable solutions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Constancia’s swift restart highlights both the resilience and fragility of Peru’s copper supply chain. Large mines can technically recover quickly, but repeated social disruptions erode confidence and increase the cost of capital for new projects. For copper buyers, the key takeaway is to diversify concentrate sources while recognising that Peru will remain a cornerstone of global supply for the foreseeable future.

US-Ecuador Trade Deal Could Open a New Path for Ecuadorian Copper Exports

US-Ecuador

The US-Ecuador trade deal could reshape trade flows for metals and other industrial goods. Ecuador and the US completed negotiations on a reciprocal agreement that will allow about half of Ecuadorian exports to enter the US tariff-free. That group includes copper, lead, and gold. As a result, the US-Ecuador trade deal could create a new opening for Ecuadorian copper exports.

This matters because copper concentrate from Ecuador currently faces tariffs in the US. Those duties raise the cost of entry and reduce Ecuador’s competitiveness in the American market. Removing that barrier could improve the commercial case for future shipments. Therefore, the US-Ecuador trade deal may become more important for copper trade than current export patterns suggest.

At present, Ecuadorian copper exports are heavily concentrated elsewhere. Most copper concentrate shipments go to China, with smaller volumes going to Peru and South Korea. Ecuador exported no copper to the US in 2025 despite strong overall copper concentrate growth. Consequently, the US-Ecuador trade deal could diversify export destinations even if change is gradual at first.

Ecuadorian Copper Exports Could Become Less China-Centric

Ecuadorian copper exports have grown strongly, but they remain concentrated in one market. From January to November 2025, Ecuador exported more than 605,000t of copper concentrate globally. Revenue reached about $1.5bn over that period. However, 96.5pc of that volume went to China.

That concentration creates both scale and risk. China offers strong demand, but overdependence on one destination can limit bargaining power and trade flexibility. A tariff-free path into the US would give Ecuador another strategic outlet. As a result, Ecuadorian copper exports could become more balanced over time.

The shift will not happen automatically. Trade agreements can open doors, but actual volumes depend on commercial relationships, treatment terms, logistics, and buyer interest. Even so, tariff-free copper trade would improve Ecuador’s position in future negotiations. Therefore, the US-Ecuador trade deal gives Ecuador more optionality in a critical export sector.

Ecuador Non-Oil Exports Gain a Broader Strategic Boost

Ecuador non-oil exports could also benefit far beyond copper. The agreement covers dozens of products, including metals, agricultural goods, and fisheries products. Ecuador expects the deal to lift non-oil exports to the US by about 15pc each year. That would support a broader diversification strategy across the economy.

This wider context matters for metals as well. A stronger trade framework can improve investor confidence in export-oriented mining and processing. It can also encourage companies to think more seriously about the US as a destination market. Meanwhile, tariff-free copper trade would fit neatly into a broader non-oil export expansion plan.

The agreement also arrives at a time when the US wants more secure and diversified supply chains across the Americas. That creates a favorable backdrop for Ecuadorian producers seeking new buyers. As a result, the US-Ecuador trade deal could gain strategic value beyond its immediate tariff effects.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal matters because it gives Ecuador a chance to reduce export concentration without abandoning its strongest market. The biggest opportunity is not instant copper volume to the US. It is the creation of a second serious commercial path for Ecuador’s growing metals sector.

Lobito Corridor Copper and Cobalt Shipment Signals a New Export Route for the DRC

Entreprise Generale du Cobalt

The Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment marks a strategic milestone for the Democratic Republic of Congo. Entreprise Generale du Cobalt and Trafigura agreed the first delivery of copper and cobalt to international markets using the Lobito Atlantic Railway. Initial cargoes will go to customers in the United States. As a result, the Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment strengthens the US-DRC minerals partnership. 

This matters because the shipment is tied to traceable artisanal cobalt. EGC reported production of its first 1,000t of traceable artisanal cobalt in November. Trafigura already markets cobalt supplied by EGC under an existing agreement. Therefore, the Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment is not only a logistics story. It is also a supply-chain transparency story. 

The route itself is strategically important. The Lobito Atlantic Railway offers the shortest path from Kolwezi to an Atlantic port. Inland transit times can fall to about seven days. Consequently, DRC critical minerals exports could become faster and more visible to international buyers. 

Traceable Artisanal Cobalt Gives the Corridor More Strategic Value

Traceable artisanal cobalt gives this shipment a different significance from a normal export cargo. EGC is mandated by the Congolese state to buy cobalt from artisanal producers. That gives the company a central role in formalising part of the country’s cobalt trade. As a result, the Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment connects logistics reform with artisanal sector reform. 

Trafigura’s role also matters. The trader signed a five-year supply agreement with EGC in 2020. That deal included funding for controlled artisanal mining zones, ore buying stations, and traceability systems aligned with OECD standards. Therefore, this first shipment reflects years of work on controlled sourcing rather than a one-off transaction. 

The wider objective is clear. The partnership aims to formalise artisanal mining, improve transparency, and eliminate child labour. Those goals matter to western buyers seeking more credible cobalt supply. Meanwhile, the new route may make traceable material more commercially attractive by improving export efficiency. 

DRC Critical Minerals Exports Gain a Faster Atlantic Route

DRC critical minerals exports have long faced costly and slow logistics. The Lobito corridor changes that equation by linking the Copperbelt more directly to the Atlantic. The railway runs from Lobito in Angola to the DRC border, with an extension into the Copperbelt. As a result, the Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment may become a model for wider export diversification. 

The infrastructure backing is also important. The Lar consortium recently secured $753mn in debt financing to support rehabilitation and expansion. That level of support shows that the route is being treated as a strategic trade corridor, not just a regional rail asset. Therefore, DRC critical minerals exports could gain a more durable logistics platform. 

This development also aligns with broader western policy. Initial cargoes are heading to US customers under the US-DRC strategic partnership on critical minerals. That makes the corridor part of a bigger effort to diversify metal flows away from more concentrated supply routes. Consequently, the Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment carries geopolitical meaning as well as commercial value. 

The Metalnomist Commentary

This shipment matters because it brings together three themes at once: traceability, logistics, and geopolitics. The DRC is not only trying to export more cobalt and copper. It is trying to export them through routes and systems that western buyers can trust. If Lobito keeps scaling, it could become one of the most important critical minerals corridors outside the traditional China-linked trade flow. 

Orion Glencore DRC Stake Sale Could Redraw Western Access to Copper and Cobalt

Glencore DRC

The Orion Glencore DRC stake sale could become one of the most important critical minerals deals of the year. Glencore has agreed to a possible sale of 40pc of its Kamoto and Mutanda mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The talks value the two assets at around $9bn. As a result, the Orion Glencore DRC stake sale could reshape western copper and cobalt access.

This matters because the buyer is not a normal financial investor. Orion Critical Mineral Consortium was set up with direct US backing and a clear supply security mission. The group wants long-life production from high-quality mines that can support western industry. Therefore, the Orion Glencore DRC stake sale fits a much broader US critical minerals strategy.

The deal also has strategic structure. Orion would gain board seats and the right to route its share of metal to chosen buyers under the US-DRC partnership. Glencore would still keep day-to-day control of the mines. Consequently, the Orion Glencore DRC stake sale looks designed to influence supply direction without forcing a full operating transfer.

US Critical Minerals Strategy Is Moving Closer to Producing Assets

US critical minerals strategy is no longer focused only on early-stage projects. Washington has been moving toward assets that are already close to production or already operating. Orion’s earlier Prieska term sheet showed that approach on a smaller scale. This DRC move would take that strategy much further.

Recent US actions support the same pattern. Washington has widened its reach through metal tenders, minimum price tools, and Project Vault. These measures all aim to secure real physical supply, not only future optionality. As a result, the Orion Glencore DRC stake sale would fit neatly into a larger push for direct control over material flows.

That is especially important for copper and cobalt. Both metals remain essential to electrification, batteries, aerospace, and industrial technology. However, western buyers still face concentrated supply chains and strong Chinese influence. Therefore, any credible route to diversify western copper and cobalt access now carries major geopolitical value.

DRC Cobalt Export Quota and Copper Priorities Are Shaping the Deal

The DRC cobalt export quota is one reason this deal makes sense now. Glencore’s operations remain central to the global cobalt chain, but they are increasingly shaped by policy limits rather than only geology. National exports are capped across 2026 and 2027, and Glencore’s own allocation is limited. Therefore, these mines can produce more cobalt than they can freely sell.

Glencore is also leaning harder into copper. Copper prices strengthened sharply in late 2025 and early 2026, while cobalt operations faced more pressure. The company has already shown it can shift plant time and logistics toward copper when returns are more attractive. As a result, the Orion Glencore DRC stake sale could help Glencore share risk while keeping focus on its preferred metal.

Operational pressure adds another layer. Kamoto and Mutanda have faced lower grades, stoppages, repair work, transport bottlenecks, and policy limits. These are still major assets, but they are no longer simple growth stories. Consequently, bringing in a new partner could help stabilize capital needs while giving western buyers a stronger foothold.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This possible sale matters because it combines geopolitics, mine ownership, and offtake control in one transaction. The bigger issue is not only who owns 40pc. It is who gets to direct future copper and cobalt units from some of the world’s most important DRC assets.

Copper Prices Set to Rise Amid US Federal Reserve Rate Cut, but Short-Term Volatility Expected

The recent decision by the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is sparking predictions of higher copper prices, particularly from Chinese market participants. This optimism stems from expectations that a weaker US dollar will increase demand for copper, especially in the property sector. Historically, copper and the US dollar have an inverse relationship, as copper is priced in dollars, making it cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

On September 18th, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, bringing it down to a range of 4.75-5%. This move marks the first interest rate cut since 2020, and policymakers have signaled that further reductions are likely before the end of 2024. Another 100 basis points of cuts are anticipated in 2025.

Chinese analysts believe this rate cut could encourage similar actions in China, particularly in the property market, potentially driving copper demand. "China is likely to follow the US to lower its borrowing costs especially on the property market, which may boost copper demand from the property market," an industrial analyst told Metalnomist. This development may further bolster copper prices in the medium term.

Copper prices remained relatively stable following the Fed's announcement, with only minor fluctuations recorded on both the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). Three-month LME copper prices saw a slight drop of 0.2%, settling at $9,382.5 per ton, while SHFE’s most traded October copper contract rose by 0.43% to 74,760 yuan per ton.

Despite these indicators, not everyone shares the same optimism. Some market participants expect copper prices to soften in the short term, as the rate cut had been widely anticipated. “The market has already digested the interest rate cut and copper prices had risen this week,” a trader remarked to Metalnomist. A relatively high SHFE contract price, nearing 75,000 yuan per ton, may also put pressure on downstream producers.

On the supply side, copper inventories in China are declining as downstream producers restock for the Mid-Autumn Festival. The SHFE copper stocks fell from 241,745 tons on August 30th to 185,520 tons by mid-September. This stock drawdown is providing some bullish momentum for copper prices, although some analysts remain cautious about the sustainability of this trend.

Overall, while some analysts are bullish due to falling inventories and expectations of looser monetary policy in both the US and China, others remain skeptical about the near-term outlook for copper prices, citing the market’s earlier response to the expected rate cut.

China's Copper Scrap Imports Surge in 2024 Amid Tight Supply and Policy Changes

Copper Scrap

China’s copper scrap imports saw a notable 13% increase in 2024 as domestic refined copper producers turned to scrap due to a tightening copper concentrate supply. This shift helped offset the shortages in copper concentrate, which traditionally serves as the primary feedstock for refining operations. The increased demand for scrap also led to a significant month-on-month rise in December, with imports soaring by 25% compared to November.

December Surge Attributed to Price Dynamics and US-Related Imports

A key factor contributing to this December surge was the reopening of the import arbitrage in the second half of November. This shift occurred as domestic copper metal prices in China rose above those on the London Metal Exchange (LME), making imports more economically viable. Additionally, scrap buyers accelerated the clearance of US-origin copper scrap at customs to avoid potential countermeasures after the election of US President Donald Trump. This urgency, combined with strategic import decisions, led to a marked rise in imports in the final month of the year.

Government Policy Supports Copper Scrap Imports in 2025

In a bid to further boost the availability of copper scrap, China has expanded its import duty exemptions for recycled copper feedstocks. For 2025, the government broadened the scope of products under HS code 74040000 to include not only recycled brass and copper feedstocks but also recycled copper and alloy feedstocks. Import duties for these materials remain at zero, a move that further encourages the import of scrap and helps meet the growing demand for copper in China.

Copper Cathode Output Declines in 2023-24

Aurubis, Europe’s leading copper producer and recycler, reported a 4% drop in its copper cathode production for the 2023-24 fiscal year, totaling 578,000 tons. The decline was driven by a 30% reduction in output at its Hamburg facility, where operations were delayed following a maintenance shutdown. Despite the setback in Germany, the company maintained a solid performance in Bulgaria, with 229,000 tons produced at its Pirdop site.

China’s Copper Scrap Imports Drop in September Amid Narrowing Price Spreads

Copper Scrap

China’s copper scrap imports declined by 5.4% in September, reflecting market shifts driven by narrowing price spreads between refined copper and copper scrap. According to market participants, the spread, which began at over 2,000 yuan per ton (Yn/t) at the start of August, contracted to around 1,200 yuan/t ($169/t) by the end of the month as copper prices hit a five-month low.

Market Dynamics and Buyer Behavior

The narrower price spread dampened the interest of fabricated product producers in purchasing scrap. Many Chinese copper smelters and secondary producers chose to remain on the sidelines, avoiding major scrap purchases once the spread fell below the perceived reasonable threshold of 1,400 yuan/t.

At the same time, sellers exhibited hesitancy to deliver copper scrap during August's price slump, preferring to wait for higher prices. This shift in behavior further impacted the availability and movement of scrap in September.

The Broader Impact of Rising Costs

Adding to the complexities, many refined copper producers opted to use copper scrap as a substitute for copper concentrate. This switch was driven by the significantly higher costs of copper concentrate, leading to a 16% rise in China’s copper scrap imports during the January-September period.

However, the copper concentrate market faced its own challenges, including a persistent supply crunch that resulted in a sharp 85% drop in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) over the same timeframe.

Outlook

With copper prices and market conditions remaining volatile, China’s copper trade dynamics are expected to continue adjusting as producers and buyers navigate fluctuating costs and price spreads.

Sibanye Appian Brazil mines settlement closes high-stakes nickel dispute

Sibanye Stillwater

Sibanye Appian Brazil mines settlement ends a three-year legal battle over major nickel and copper assets in Brazil. The $215mn payment closes Sibanye Stillwater’s failed acquisition of the Santa Rita nickel and Serrote copper mines. As a result, the case now stands as a key precedent for mining M&A risk and contract enforcement.

Sibanye Appian Brazil mines settlement follows the company’s decision to terminate a $1bn deal signed in 2021. The agreement covered Appian’s Atlantic Nickel and MVV businesses, which own Santa Rita and Serrote. However, Sibanye walked away in January 2022, citing a “geotechnical event” at Santa Rita as a material adverse effect. The UK High Court later ruled that the incident did not meet this threshold, leaving Sibanye liable for damages.

Santa Rita is one of the world’s largest open-pit nickel sulphide operations with a 6.5mn t/yr plant. Serrote is a sizeable copper-gold mine designed to produce about 20,000 t/yr of copper concentrate from a 4.1mn t/yr plant. Together, these assets would have anchored Sibanye’s diversification into battery metals. Instead, the Sibanye Appian Brazil mines settlement now replaces the growth story with a sizeable cash cost and reputational hit.

Legal defeat underscores limits of “material adverse effect” claims

The dispute highlights how courts interpret material adverse effect clauses in mining deals. Judges expect buyers to understand normal operational and geological risks before signing. Therefore, routine geotechnical issues rarely justify tearing up a $1bn transaction. The High Court found that Santa Rita’s event did not fundamentally damage the mine’s economics or long-term viability.

As a result, the ruling signals tougher standards for future mining M&A terminations. Buyers can no longer rely on moderate technical issues or short-term volatility to escape deals. Instead, they must show truly exceptional damage to asset value or performance. This outcome will likely push acquirers to tighten due diligence, refine risk pricing and draft narrower escape clauses. It also reinforces sellers’ confidence when defending contracts in court.

For Sibanye, the settlement removes a major legal overhang and ongoing litigation expense. However, it also crystallises a $215mn cash outflow with no asset in return. Investors will scrutinise how this affects balance-sheet flexibility, especially as the group still targets exposure to battery metals. Appian, meanwhile, secures compensation and can refocus on optimising Santa Rita and Serrote or preparing new exit options.

Strategic lessons for mining and battery metals M&A

The Sibanye Appian Brazil mines settlement sends a clear signal across the battery metals value chain. Strategic diversification into nickel and copper remains vital for miners exposed to PGMs or coal. However, failed execution now carries higher legal and financial risk. Mining companies must match bold decarbonisation narratives with disciplined transaction structures and contingency planning.

For prospective buyers of nickel and copper assets, the case highlights three core lessons. First, conduct deeper technical due diligence around pit stability, tailings and resource models. Second, align contract language with realistic risk scenarios, not best-case assumptions. Third, maintain transparent communication with counterparties when operational issues emerge. These steps can reduce the odds of costly courtroom battles.

Downstream, stainless and battery supply-chain players will watch how Santa Rita and Serrote evolve under Appian’s control. Any future sale process will likely embed stricter protections for both buyer and seller. Over time, this precedent may raise transaction costs but also improve deal quality in the global energy-transition metals market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This settlement underlines how aggressively courts now police “material adverse effect” claims in mining M&A. Buyers that over-promise on battery metals diversification, then attempt to reverse course, face growing legal and reputational consequences. The next phase of nickel and copper deal-making will favor disciplined acquirers who price risk accurately and honour their contracts.

Teck copper and zinc guidance cut as grades and constraints bite

Teck

Teck copper and zinc guidance has been cut across multiple years to 2028. The company now expects lower output from several key assets as it mines lower-grade areas and grapples with operational constraints. Teck copper and zinc guidance for 2025 has been reduced again, with copper now forecast at 415,000-465,000t, down from 470,000-525,000t. This shift signals a slower growth path just as the market focuses on looming deficits in several base metals.

However, the sharpest impact on Teck copper and zinc guidance comes from Chile. At Quebrada Blanca, copper production guidance for 2025 has been cut to 170,000-190,000t from 210,000-230,000t. The mine faces slow sand drainage and concentrator downtime, which delay tailings management facility (TMF) development. As a result, Teck expects more downtime in 2025-26 and will build a sand wedge to stabilise tailings performance. The company targets 2027 for a steady-state operation in which TMF constraints no longer cap concentrator throughput.

At the group level, Teck’s third-quarter copper production fell by 9pc year on year to 104,100t. Meanwhile, copper sales slipped only 0.6pc to 110,300t, indicating some stock drawdown despite weaker mine output. This divergence underscores how tighter mined supply can already appear in concentrate flows, even before full-year guidance cuts translate into physical scarcity. Markets that watch Teck copper and zinc guidance closely will likely reassess medium-term concentrate availability and treatment charge dynamics.

Zinc and molybdenum outlook softens ahead of Anglo Teck merger

Beyond copper, Teck has lowered zinc production guidance for most years through 2028, with 2025 the main exception. Total zinc in concentrate output fell by 5pc in the third quarter to 150,500t, even as sales rose 14pc to 305,700t. Refined zinc fared worse, with production down 20pc and sales down 25pc year on year. These trends highlight margin pressure at the smelting and refining level, where power costs, maintenance and weaker prices all weigh on performance.

In addition, Teck has cut its molybdenum guidance, signalling a broader recalibration of its by-product profile. The company now expects 2026 molybdenum output to be 46pc lower than previously guided, with a 7pc reduction in 2028. This will affect revenue diversification and may trim by-product credits that help support copper unit costs. For downstream consumers, tighter molybdenum supply could gradually feed into alloy surcharges and specialty steel pricing, particularly in high-temperature and corrosion-resistant segments.

Meanwhile, Teck is preparing for a strategic reset through its planned merger with Anglo American. The deal will create Anglo Teck Group, combining large iron ore, copper and zinc portfolios under one umbrella. The merged entity may be better positioned to manage grade decline and project risk across a broader asset base. But investors will scrutinise whether Teck copper and zinc guidance stabilises after integration, or whether further revisions emerge as projects like Quebrada Blanca move through their de-bottlenecking phases.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Teck’s guidance cuts confirm what many copper and zinc buyers already suspect: resource quality and infrastructure bottlenecks are eroding the easy supply growth story. While the Anglo Teck merger offers scale and optionality, it does not remove geological and technical constraints at assets like Quebrada Blanca. For traders and smelters, this is a reminder to stress-test scenarios where large, “tier-one” names no longer deliver the volumes once assumed in long-term models.