Teck copper and zinc guidance cut as grades and constraints bite

Teck

Teck copper and zinc guidance has been cut across multiple years to 2028. The company now expects lower output from several key assets as it mines lower-grade areas and grapples with operational constraints. Teck copper and zinc guidance for 2025 has been reduced again, with copper now forecast at 415,000-465,000t, down from 470,000-525,000t. This shift signals a slower growth path just as the market focuses on looming deficits in several base metals.

However, the sharpest impact on Teck copper and zinc guidance comes from Chile. At Quebrada Blanca, copper production guidance for 2025 has been cut to 170,000-190,000t from 210,000-230,000t. The mine faces slow sand drainage and concentrator downtime, which delay tailings management facility (TMF) development. As a result, Teck expects more downtime in 2025-26 and will build a sand wedge to stabilise tailings performance. The company targets 2027 for a steady-state operation in which TMF constraints no longer cap concentrator throughput.

At the group level, Teck’s third-quarter copper production fell by 9pc year on year to 104,100t. Meanwhile, copper sales slipped only 0.6pc to 110,300t, indicating some stock drawdown despite weaker mine output. This divergence underscores how tighter mined supply can already appear in concentrate flows, even before full-year guidance cuts translate into physical scarcity. Markets that watch Teck copper and zinc guidance closely will likely reassess medium-term concentrate availability and treatment charge dynamics.

Zinc and molybdenum outlook softens ahead of Anglo Teck merger

Beyond copper, Teck has lowered zinc production guidance for most years through 2028, with 2025 the main exception. Total zinc in concentrate output fell by 5pc in the third quarter to 150,500t, even as sales rose 14pc to 305,700t. Refined zinc fared worse, with production down 20pc and sales down 25pc year on year. These trends highlight margin pressure at the smelting and refining level, where power costs, maintenance and weaker prices all weigh on performance.

In addition, Teck has cut its molybdenum guidance, signalling a broader recalibration of its by-product profile. The company now expects 2026 molybdenum output to be 46pc lower than previously guided, with a 7pc reduction in 2028. This will affect revenue diversification and may trim by-product credits that help support copper unit costs. For downstream consumers, tighter molybdenum supply could gradually feed into alloy surcharges and specialty steel pricing, particularly in high-temperature and corrosion-resistant segments.

Meanwhile, Teck is preparing for a strategic reset through its planned merger with Anglo American. The deal will create Anglo Teck Group, combining large iron ore, copper and zinc portfolios under one umbrella. The merged entity may be better positioned to manage grade decline and project risk across a broader asset base. But investors will scrutinise whether Teck copper and zinc guidance stabilises after integration, or whether further revisions emerge as projects like Quebrada Blanca move through their de-bottlenecking phases.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Teck’s guidance cuts confirm what many copper and zinc buyers already suspect: resource quality and infrastructure bottlenecks are eroding the easy supply growth story. While the Anglo Teck merger offers scale and optionality, it does not remove geological and technical constraints at assets like Quebrada Blanca. For traders and smelters, this is a reminder to stress-test scenarios where large, “tier-one” names no longer deliver the volumes once assumed in long-term models.