Outokumpu US chromium metal investment targets high-value aerospace and defence demand

Outokumpu US chromium metal

Outokumpu US chromium metal investment marks a strategic move into premium specialty metals for aerospace, defence and energy markets. The New Hampshire pilot plant will produce enriched ferro-chrome at 65pc Cr and chromium metal at 90pc Cr purity. As a result, Outokumpu US chromium metal investment positions the group closer to high-spec alloy supply chains in North America.

Low-carbon chromium technology and staged capacity build-out

Outokumpu is using proprietary low-carbon technology at the new US pilot plant. The facility is scheduled to start operations in the first half of 2027, following earlier R&D work at its Boston laboratory opened in 2024. Therefore, Outokumpu US chromium metal investment clearly links regional technology development with commercial-scale metals production.

The $45mn pilot project will validate process performance, carbon intensity and product quality for enriched ferro-chrome and chromium metal. After the pilot phase, Outokumpu plans an industrial-scale plant with 10,000 t/yr capacity, targeted for 2029-30 start-up. This staged approach reduces scale-up risk while building customer confidence in long-term chromium supply.

Premium chromium metal for aerospace and critical sectors

Outokumpu aims to supply premium-priced chromium metal into high-value aerospace, defence and energy applications. Chromium metal already trades at a wide pricing spread by origin and specification, with European material priced well above Chinese and Russian supply. European-origin chromium for aerospace and defence often sits at or above the top of current market assessments, reinforcing the value of qualifying high-purity product.

By anchoring production in the US, Outokumpu can offer a Western, lower-carbon source of chromium metal and enriched ferro-chrome. This strengthens regional resilience for aero-engine alloys, superalloys and advanced stainless grades. In turn, the Outokumpu US chromium metal investment moves the company’s ferro-chrome business further into the specialty metals space, as highlighted by chief technology officer Stefan Erdmann.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu is reading the market correctly by aligning chromium metal capacity with aerospace and defence re-shoring trends. If the new technology delivers both lower carbon and tight specifications, the company could secure a durable price premium despite global oversupply risks. The key watchpoints now are qualification timelines with major alloy producers and how quickly industrial-scale capacity locks in long-term offtake.

Ferbasa's 2024 Ferro-Alloy Output Falls Amid Weak Global Steel Demand

Ferbasa

Brazilian producer faces falling prices, lower domestic sales, and volatile quarterly output across chromium and silicon alloys.

Ferbasa, Brazil’s leading ferro-alloy producer, reported a 1.5% year-on-year decline in total ferro-alloy production for 2024, falling to 301,208 tonnes, driven by a broader slowdown in global steel production and weak domestic demand. The company supplies various ferro-alloys including high- and low-carbon ferro-chrome, ferro-silicon, and ferro-silicon chromium to the steel industry.

While silicon alloy production rose 6% for the year to 99,836 tonnes, chromium alloy output declined slightly by 0.5% to 201,372 tonnes. However, Q4 chromium output fell 3.6% year-on-year to 51,513 tonnes, dragging total output lower for the quarter.

Quarterly Swings and Domestic Market Weakness Pressure Performance

Ferbasa saw Q4 silicon alloy production grow 9.7% year-on-year, but it dropped 21.3% compared to Q3, indicating quarterly volatility. A 6.2% increase in Q4 chromium production helped offset the silicon alloy decline.

Total ferro-alloy sales in 2024 declined 1.8% to 268,623 tonnes, with domestic sales down 8.3%, affected by rising steel imports that undercut local steel output. A 5.3% increase in exports, led by a 12.5% rise in chrome alloy exports, offered partial relief. Silicon alloy exports remained flat year-on-year.

Ferro-Alloy Prices Decline, Revenue Drops 8.1%

Despite stable export volumes, Ferbasa’s net revenue fell 8.1%, due mainly to a 7.6% drop in ferro-alloy segment revenue. This was driven by an 11.6% fall in average dollar prices for ferro-alloys.

The company blamed the pricing pressure on reduced stainless steel production in China, subdued global economic activity, and ongoing U.S. anti-dumping investigations that caused market caution around silicon alloy pricing.

Ferbasa remains exposed to volatile pricing cycles, international trade tensions, and macroeconomic headwinds, which may continue to pressure Brazil’s ferro-alloy sector in 2025.

Indonesia HPAL Nickel Ore Costs Rise as New HPM Formula Hits Limonite Feedstock

Nickel ore

Indonesia HPAL nickel ore costs are set to rise sharply after the government’s revised mineral benchmark price lifted the mandated price floor for limonite ore. The new HPM formula is expected to increase limonite ore costs by at least 50%, adding immediate margin pressure to mixed hydroxide precipitate producers.

The revised HPM for limonite ore containing 1.2% nickel, 0.1% cobalt and 2% chromium is calculated at $45.24/wmt under the updated Harga Mineral Acuan. That is around 50% higher than early April transacted prices of about $30/wmt for 1.2% limonite ore.

Indonesia HPAL nickel ore costs are also far above the previous benchmark level. Under the old formula, the HPM for similar ore was only $17.17/wmt, meaning the new benchmark is nearly three times higher.

The change matters because HPAL operations rely on limonite ore as feedstock to produce MHP, which is used in battery-grade nickel and cobalt supply chains. A higher government-mandated ore floor will raise raw material costs, increase royalty payments and pressure margins across Indonesia’s battery nickel industry.

Limonite Ore Repricing Raises MHP Cost Pressure

The new HPM framework has the strongest impact on limonite ore because this material typically trades closer to benchmark values than saprolite ore. HPAL producers therefore face a more direct cost increase than rotary kiln-electric furnace operators.

MHP producers will now have to absorb higher ore purchase costs and higher royalties. Since royalties are linked to official valuation, the total cost increase could exceed the headline 50% rise in limonite ore pricing.

The revised formula also changes how Indonesia captures ore value. It includes cobalt, iron and chromium in nickel ore valuation, making these contained elements taxable. This is especially important for limonite ore because cobalt content adds value to HPAL feedstock.

The correction factor for cobalt is set at 30% when ore contains at least 0.05% cobalt. Iron carries a 30% correction factor when content is 35% or lower, while chromium carries a 10% correction factor.

This means Indonesia is no longer valuing nickel ore mainly by nickel grade. The government is moving toward a broader contained-metal pricing model, capturing more value from battery-related by-products and ore chemistry.

For MHP producers, this creates a structural cost problem. HPAL projects were built around access to Indonesian limonite ore, sulphuric acid and integrated processing infrastructure. If ore costs rise by more than a third to half, the cost floor for MHP production moves higher.

This could affect downstream nickel sulphate and cathode material economics. Producers with stronger integration, lower acid costs and better logistics will be better positioned. Higher-cost operators may face squeezed margins if MHP prices do not rise enough to offset the new ore benchmark.

The change also comes as Indonesia tightens wider nickel policy. Mining quota uncertainty, export tax discussions and stricter pricing formulas all point to a broader state strategy of capturing more mineral value before material moves downstream.

Sulphuric Acid Tightness Adds a Second Cost Shock

Indonesia HPAL nickel ore costs are rising at the same time as sulphuric acid prices surge. This creates a double pressure point for MHP producers.

HPAL operations require large volumes of sulphuric acid to leach nickel and cobalt from limonite ore. Any disruption in sulphur or acid supply directly affects processing costs and production reliability.

The US-Iran conflict has stranded several sulphur cargoes bound for Indonesian HPAL producers, preventing them from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, producers have shifted toward buying sulphuric acid directly.

That market was already tight because of limited copper concentrate availability. Sulphuric acid supply is expected to tighten further as China suspends exports from May.

Southeast Asian sulphuric acid prices have risen sharply. Prices reached $277.50/t cfr on 9 April, up 71% from $162.50/t before the conflict.

This is a major issue for Indonesian HPAL plants. Higher limonite ore costs increase feedstock expenses, while higher sulphuric acid prices increase processing costs. Together, they raise the full cost of producing MHP and weaken the advantage of low-cost Indonesian battery nickel.

Saprolite ore faces less immediate disruption. Saprolite is mainly used in RKEF operations to produce nickel pig iron and ferronickel. Although the new HPM for typical saprolite ore containing 1.6% nickel, 18% iron and 2% chromium rises to $52.90/wmt from $29.94/wmt, it remains below early April transacted prices of about $70/wmt.

This means RKEF producers may see limited immediate transaction impact because market prices are already above the benchmark. HPAL producers, by contrast, face a direct reset of the cost floor.

The difference could reshape relative economics between Indonesia’s stainless-linked and battery-linked nickel chains. NPI producers remain supported by high saprolite prices, while HPAL producers now face rising limonite, royalty and acid costs.

For the global battery supply chain, the key risk is that Indonesia’s MHP cost curve shifts upward. That could support nickel sulphate prices over time, especially if acid tightness persists or HPM-linked royalty costs remain elevated.

For Indonesia, the policy strengthens resource rent capture. The government is recognising that limonite ore contains not only nickel but also cobalt and other valuable elements. This gives Jakarta a stronger fiscal claim over battery material feedstock.

However, the policy also increases operating uncertainty. HPAL investors need predictable ore pricing, acid availability and tax treatment to justify large-scale expansion. A sharp change in HPM could force producers to revisit cost assumptions, procurement strategies and product pricing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s new HPM formula marks a turning point for HPAL economics. The country is capturing more value from limonite ore, but the combined shock of higher ore prices, royalties and sulphuric acid costs could reset the cost floor for global MHP supply.

Indonesia HPM Formula Raises Nickel Ore Cost Risk for HPAL Producers

ESDM

Indonesia HPM formula changes will reshape nickel ore pricing from 15 April, adding new cost pressure across the country’s nickel processing chain. The energy and mineral resources ministry revised the mineral benchmark price mechanism for nickel and aluminium ore, with nickel valuation now expanded beyond nickel content alone.

The Indonesia HPM formula raises the correction factor for 1.6% nickel ore to 30%, compared with the previous 20% correction factor for 1.9% ore. Under the new framework, the correction factor rises or falls by one percentage point for every 0.1% change in nickel content.

This means the correction factor for 1.9% nickel ore will rise to 33%. The change increases the official value of nickel ore and could raise taxes, royalties and feedstock costs for processors that rely on HPM-linked transactions.

The Indonesia HPM formula also adds cobalt, iron and chromium into ore valuation. This is a major policy shift because these contained elements were not previously priced in the same way. Indonesia is now moving toward a more complete ore-value model, especially for laterite ores used in battery and stainless steel supply chains.

Cobalt, Iron and Chromium Inclusion Changes Nickel Ore Valuation

Indonesia’s new nickel HPM framework gives cobalt a correction factor of 30% when ore contains at least 0.05% cobalt. This is particularly important for high-pressure acid leach producers because cobalt-bearing ore can generate additional value through mixed hydroxide precipitate.

The ministry also introduced a 10% correction factor for iron when ore contains 35% or less iron. Chromium content also carries a 10% correction factor. These additions make ore valuation more complex and link pricing more closely to the full chemistry of laterite deposits.

The inclusion of cobalt is the most strategically important change. Indonesia’s HPAL projects produce nickel-cobalt intermediates for battery supply chains, and cobalt content can materially affect project economics. By taxing cobalt-bearing value inside ore, Jakarta is capturing more upstream rent from battery-linked mineral flows.

The Indonesia HPM formula therefore moves beyond a simple nickel-grade benchmark. It pushes the country toward a broader mineral-value system that recognises by-product metals and secondary contained value.

The ministry kept the Harga Mineral Acuan reference price unchanged. This means the immediate policy impact comes from correction factors and added contained elements, rather than a change in the headline reference price.

Market participants are now assessing how the new rules will pass through to actual transactions. For nickel ore used in rotary kiln-electric furnace production, spot prices remain nearly double the HPM level. This limits the immediate impact on some stainless-linked ore trades because market prices already sit well above the official benchmark.

The impact is likely to be much stronger for HPAL ore. Ore used in HPAL processing often trades without the same premium seen in RKEF feedstock. As a result, the revised HPM formula could lift transacted HPAL ore prices by more than a third.

That cost increase would move directly into battery-grade nickel economics. Market participants estimate that higher ore prices and taxes could raise mixed hydroxide precipitate production costs by more than $1,000/t in nickel metal equivalent.

This matters because Indonesia has become the centre of global MHP supply growth. Chinese-backed HPAL projects rely on Indonesian ore, sulphuric acid, energy and logistics to supply nickel and cobalt intermediates to global battery chains. Higher ore costs could narrow margins across MHP, nickel sulphate and cathode material supply.

The change also arrives during a period of wider nickel policy uncertainty. Indonesia has been tightening mining quotas, reviewing export taxes and seeking greater value capture from its mineral resources. The revised HPM formula fits that direction by increasing government control over pricing and taxable value.

Nickel Policy Shift Extends to Bauxite and Signals Broader Resource Control

Indonesia’s pricing reform did not stop at nickel. The ministry also revised the HPM formula for bauxite, changing the price basis to dollars per wet metric tonne from dollars per dry metric tonne.

The bauxite change adds a silica discount and raises the correction factor to $1.40/wmt for each one percentage point increase in aluminium oxide content. The previous formula used $1/dmt. This changes how moisture and ore quality are reflected in benchmark pricing.

The ministry also changed the price basis for lead ore to dollars per wet metric tonne from dollars per dry metric tonne. This effectively removes moisture content from the pricing formula and simplifies the benchmark around wet material values.

These changes suggest a broader policy direction. Indonesia is refining benchmark pricing across mineral commodities to improve tax collection, capture more contained value and align official pricing with ore quality.

For nickel, the change has immediate market significance because Indonesia dominates global laterite supply. Nickel ore pricing affects stainless steel, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, MHP, nickel sulphate and battery cathode supply chains.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel price response showed that traders are treating the policy as price-supportive. Nickel closed at Yn136,900/t after rising from Yn133,010/t on 3 April, with participants citing support from the revised HMA-linked pricing framework.

However, the real market impact will depend on how producers, smelters and government agencies implement the rules. If HPM-based taxes rise sharply while spot ore prices remain high, margin pressure could build across processors with weaker cost positions.

HPAL producers are the most exposed because their feedstock pricing may move more directly with the revised benchmark. RKEF operators may see less immediate change because their ore costs already reflect strong market premiums.

For battery materials buyers, the risk is that Indonesia’s cost base becomes more expensive even as global nickel markets remain oversupplied. Higher ore valuation may not tighten physical supply immediately, but it can raise the floor for production costs in one of the world’s most important nickel processing hubs.

For Indonesia, the policy strengthens resource sovereignty. The government is using pricing formulas, mining quotas, export controls and tax compliance to ensure that more mineral value stays inside the country. This could support domestic revenue and downstream investment, but it may also increase uncertainty for processors and foreign investors.

The new framework also creates a precedent. If Indonesia successfully captures more value from cobalt, iron and chromium in nickel ore, other resource-rich countries may consider similar contained-metal pricing models.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s revised HPM formula shows that nickel policy is moving from volume control to value capture. The biggest impact will fall on HPAL producers, where cobalt-bearing ore valuation could raise MHP costs and change battery nickel economics.

AMG Chrome Metal Plant Strengthens US Aerospace Alloy Supply

AMG Critical Materials

AMG chrome metal plant start-up in Pennsylvania will add new US production capacity for a specialty metal used in aerospace, defence and energy applications. AMG Critical Materials plans to open the 6,500 t/yr aluminothermic chrome metal facility in New Castle on 17 June.

The AMG chrome metal plant is strategically important because the US remains heavily dependent on imported unwrought chromium and chromium powders. In 2025, the US imported 11,153t of these products, with the UK supplying 51% and China supplying 34.9%.

The AMG chrome metal plant will sit next to AMG’s existing titanium facility, which produces titanium master alloys and other specialty alloys for aerospace, defence and energy markets. That location creates a stronger domestic cluster for high-performance alloy inputs.

Chrome metal is used in superalloys because it improves corrosion resistance and high-temperature performance. These properties are essential for aircraft engines, defence systems, industrial turbines and other demanding applications.

New Castle Facility Adds Domestic Chrome Capacity

AMG’s new Pennsylvania facility will use aluminothermic production to make chrome metal. The process is important for producing material suitable for high-performance alloy markets.

AMG already has established chrome expertise through AMG Chrome, its UK-based subsidiary. The Rotherham site produces chrome metal, high-purity degassed chrome metals and chrome powders.

The New Castle plant extends that capability into the US market. This gives American aerospace and defence customers another domestic source of chrome metal at a time when supply-chain security has become a higher priority.

The facility’s proximity to AMG’s titanium operation also matters. Titanium master alloys, chrome metal and specialty alloy inputs often serve overlapping customers in aerospace, defence and energy.

That creates potential operational and commercial advantages. AMG can support customers that need multiple alloying materials with stronger domestic logistics, qualification support and supply visibility.

Tariffs and Russian Supply Loss Reshape Chromium Trade

The US chrome market has been reshaped by sanctions, tariffs and trade disruption. Russian supplies became less available after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, forcing buyers to rely more heavily on other sources.

China became a more important supplier as Russian material disappeared from western trade flows. However, the US imposed a 25% Section 301 tariff on Chinese-origin chrome metal in September 2024.

That tariff increased the cost and complexity of Chinese supply. It also strengthened the case for domestic production capacity, especially for aerospace and defence applications where supply continuity matters.

Europe’s own supply behaviour has also changed. The loss of Russian supplies pushed French producers to keep more material within Europe rather than ship volumes to the US.

This leaves the US exposed to a narrow set of import routes. AMG’s Pennsylvania plant helps reduce that vulnerability by adding domestic chrome metal capacity linked to an established specialty materials producer.

For aerospace superalloy supply chains, this is more than a metal availability issue. Engine and defence programmes require qualified, traceable and reliable materials. Domestic production can reduce risk around tariffs, sanctions, shipping and geopolitical disruption.

The Metalnomist Commentary

AMG’s New Castle plant shows that specialty alloy security is moving beyond titanium and nickel into smaller but critical inputs such as chrome metal. The US cannot build resilient aerospace and defence supply chains without domestic capacity for the alloying elements that make superalloys perform.

Tisco Reduces November High-Carbon Ferro-Chrome Bid Price Amid Surplus Concerns

Northern China’s state-owned steelmaker, Taiyuan Iron and Steel (Tisco), has lowered its tender procurement price for high-carbon ferro-chrome for November delivery. This move reflects a response to oversupply issues and muted demand in the stainless steel sector.

Tender Price Adjustment

Tisco reduced its November tender price on October 17 by 150 yuan/t ($21.10/t) compared to October, setting the price at Yn7,945/t on a 50% chromium basis. This price, equivalent to Yn15.89/kg ($1.01/lb) for contained chromium, includes 13% value-added tax (VAT) and is payable in cash, with shipments scheduled for delivery by December 5.

Market participants suggest that excess supply of high-carbon ferro-chrome has driven Tisco to lower its bid price. There is also speculation that Tsingshan, China’s largest stainless steel producer, may follow suit, with a potential adjustment to Yn8,145/t or Yn16.29/kg ($1.04/lb) for contained chromium.

Oversupply Challenges

From January to August 2024, China’s high-carbon ferro-chrome production reached 5.77 million tonnes, while apparent demand, including imports, totaled 8.74 million tonnes. However, actual alloy demand was only 8.11 million tonnes, leading to a supply surplus of 630,700 tonnes, according to Hunan-based steel mill estimates.

Falling Demand in the Stainless Steel Sector

Stainless steel output in China dropped by 2-2.5% from August to September, with October’s production expected to remain flat or decline by 1% compared to September. This decline has directly impacted ferro-chrome demand, causing a 1% drop in high-carbon ferro-chrome production in September compared to August. October production is expected to decrease further as alloy producers in Inner Mongolia began maintenance in response to falling prices.

Outlook

With stainless steel demand muted and high-carbon ferro-chrome production constrained by maintenance, market sentiment remains bearish. The continued adjustments by major players like Tisco and Tsingshan will be closely watched as the market seeks balance amid persistent oversupply.

Indonesia Nickel Export Tax Delay Keeps Ore Pricing Uncertainty in Focus

Indonesia Nickel Factory

Indonesia nickel export tax implementation was postponed from its original 1 April start date as authorities continued to finalise the technical formula and applicable rates. The delay kept uncertainty high across the nickel ore and stainless steel supply chain.

Indonesia nickel export tax discussions now centre on how changes to the Harga Patokan Mineral pricing system will be calculated. Market participants are watching which reference prices and contained elements will be used in the revised ore pricing formula.

Indonesia nickel export tax uncertainty has already affected buying behaviour. With stainless steel demand broadly stable, some buyers have adopted a wait-and-see approach because future import costs could rise once the tax structure is confirmed.

HPM Formula Review Could Broaden Nickel Ore Valuation

The key issue is whether Indonesia will expand the HPM formula beyond nickel content. Cobalt content in nickel ore is considered one of the most likely additions, while iron and chromium are also being discussed.

This would mark a meaningful change from the previous pricing approach. The Harga Mineral Acuan has largely used London Metal Exchange nickel prices as the main benchmark, but cobalt, iron and chromium create a more complex valuation problem.

The challenge is that not all of these elements have clear futures-based reference prices. Authorities therefore need to decide which benchmarks, market data or calculation methods should apply before the export tax can be implemented.

Export Tax Delay Still Leaves Cost Pressure on Buyers

Market participants expect the nickel export tax to follow a structure similar to Indonesia’s coal export levy. Potential rates could be set at 5%, 8% and 11%, depending on price levels.

However, it remains unclear which nickel products would ultimately fall under the tax. This lack of clarity matters because Indonesia’s nickel supply chain covers ore, intermediate products, stainless-related materials and battery-linked products.

The delay gives buyers short-term relief, but it does not remove the policy risk. Once implemented, the export tax could raise nickel import costs, affect procurement strategies and change the economics of ore supply into regional processing and stainless steel markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s nickel export tax delay shows how difficult it is to tax mineral value when ore chemistry becomes more complex. The inclusion of cobalt, iron or chromium could make the policy more sophisticated, but it also increases pricing uncertainty for buyers and processors.

Brazilian Ferro-Alloy Producer Ferbasa Sees Second-Quarter Production and Revenues Decline

Ferbasa, one of Brazil's leading ferro-alloy producers, reported a slight decrease in its second-quarter production, coupled with a significant drop in revenues. The company announced on Monday that it produced 74,750 metric tonnes of ferro-alloys in the second quarter of 2024, marking a 0.9% year-on-year decline and a 2.7% decrease from the previous quarter. The production of chromium alloys, which accounted for 50,067 tonnes of the total, fell by 0.3% compared to the same period in 2023.

Additionally, the production of silicon alloys dropped by 2.1% year-on-year to 24,683 tonnes. This decrease in production was mirrored by a sharp decline in revenues, which fell by 17% to 522 million reals ($95 million). The company attributed this revenue drop to lower trading volumes and a 13% decrease in the average dollar-weighted price of ferro-alloys in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year.

Ferbasa's sales volumes also suffered, with total ferro-alloy sales declining by 6.8% year-on-year to 63,400 tonnes in the second quarter. Domestic sales of chromium alloys plummeted by 21% to 24,770 tonnes, while international sales saw a modest increase of 7% to 16,176 tonnes. Similarly, domestic sales of silicon alloys decreased by 3.1% to 4,788 tonnes, but international sales grew by 7% to 17,682 tonnes.

The company faced additional challenges, including logistical difficulties, such as a shortage of containers and operational restrictions in key shipping routes like the Suez and Panama canals. These factors, combined with decreased demand from Brazil's domestic steel industry and recent protectionist measures in the U.S., have compounded the difficulties faced by Ferbasa.

Switzerland Adopts EU’s Russian Aluminium Ban in Sanctions Alignment

Russian aluminium

Federal Council Moves to Restrict Russian and Belarusian Aluminium Imports

Switzerland has adopted the EU’s Russian aluminium ban, aligning with Brussels’ 16th sanctions package targeting Moscow’s industrial exports. The Focus Keyphrase "Switzerland Russian aluminium ban" marks a significant shift in Swiss trade policy, historically characterized by neutrality, as the country intensifies its stance against Russian aggression.

The Federal Council announced it will implement all remaining relevant EU sanctions, including a ban on Russian primary aluminium imports and a prohibition on chromium ore exports to Russia. These measures aim to reduce materials that contribute to Russia’s military and technological advancement. Switzerland imported approximately 173,000 tonnes of unwrought Russian aluminium in 2023, according to Global Trade Tracker.

Belarusian Aluminium Also Targeted as Sanctions Widen

In parallel, Switzerland will enforce additional sanctions on Belarus, citing its complicity in the Ukraine war. These include a ban on Belarusian primary aluminium imports and expanded restrictions on dual-use and military-enhancing goods.

The Council emphasized that aligning sanctions with the EU is intended to prevent circumvention via Belarus, ensuring a more unified and effective European sanctions regime. This harmonization reduces the risk of Russian commodities entering EU markets indirectly through Swiss or Belarusian channels.

Strategic Impact on European Aluminium Supply Chains

The Swiss ban on Russian aluminium imports adds further pressure on Europe’s primary aluminium supply, which is already constrained by energy costs and limited regional production. Traders and manufacturers must now reassess sourcing strategies, particularly for unwrought aluminium, as the region seeks alternatives from non-sanctioned producers such as Norway, Canada, and the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the ban on chromium ore exports to Russia may impact specialty alloy production and stainless steel supply chains, especially those tied to aerospace and defense markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Switzerland’s adoption of the Russian aluminium ban underscores a growing consensus in Europe on restricting key industrial imports tied to Moscow. As sanctions converge and enforcement tightens, metals traders and manufacturers will need to recalibrate logistics and risk strategies in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.

FAA and EASA Certify CFM LEAP-1A HPT Blade for Durability Enhancement

CFM International

The FAA and EASA have certified CFM International’s upgraded high-pressure turbine (HPT) blade for the LEAP-1A engine, improving durability and extending time on wing in hot environments.

Durability Boost for LEAP-1A Engines

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) have approved a critical hardware upgrade for the LEAP-1A engine developed by CFM International, a joint venture between Safran Aircraft Engines and GE Aerospace. The newly certified high-pressure turbine (HPT) blade kit aims to increase engine durability, particularly in extreme operating environments like the Middle East, and enhance the engine's time on wing.

The certified kit includes:

• HPT stage-one blade
• Stage-one nozzle
• Forward inner nozzle support

These components are designed to withstand high operating temperatures, improving the engine’s overall performance and lifecycle.

Addressing Supply Chain Bottlenecks

The LEAP-1A engine powers Airbus A320neo aircraft, while the LEAP-1B variant exclusively powers Boeing’s 737 MAX. However, the supply chain for HPT blades has faced significant challenges, impacting engine deliveries in the first three quarters of 2024. During its third-quarter earnings call, Safran revealed that while certification of the new HPT blade was imminent, the delays had already constrained production.

With the certification complete, CFM International is prepared to ship the upgraded blades, focusing first on the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market. This should alleviate pressure on airlines operating LEAP-1A engines, many of which are critical to global aviation fleets.

Certification for an updated HPT blade for the LEAP-1B variant is expected by the end of 2025, signaling further advancements in turbine blade technology for Boeing aircraft.

Advanced Materials for Extreme Performance

The high-pressure turbine blades are made from nickel-based superalloys that include chromium, molybdenum, and cobalt, which allow them to endure extreme temperatures and mechanical stress. These advanced materials are vital to enhancing the performance of modern aircraft engines, particularly in demanding conditions.

The certification underscores CFM International’s commitment to advancing engine technology and meeting the evolving needs of global aviation.

Nickel Deficit Forecast Emerges as Indonesia Tightens Ore Supply

Nickel manufacturing

Nickel deficit conditions are expected to return in 2026 as Indonesia tightens ore supply controls and stainless steel demand continues to grow. The International Nickel Study Group forecasts global primary nickel production of 3.715mn t against usage of 3.747mn t, implying a deficit of 32,000t.

The nickel deficit would mark a sharp change after three consecutive years of surplus. The market recorded surpluses of 175,000t in 2023, 116,000t in 2024 and 283,000t in 2025.

The nickel deficit forecast remains modest, but it carries strategic significance because it depends heavily on Indonesian policy. Indonesia has been the main driver of global nickel supply growth, and tighter controls on ore mining could slow the expansion that previously pushed the market into surplus.

The Middle East conflict is adding another layer of uncertainty. Higher energy prices, inflation pressure and disrupted sulphur flows could affect nickel production costs, especially for high-pressure acid leach operations in Indonesia.

Indonesia Ore Controls Reshape Nickel Supply Growth

Indonesia’s approved nickel ore mining quota for 2026 has been set significantly lower than in 2025. The quota can still be revised, but the initial reduction has already changed market expectations.

The country’s revised mineral benchmark pricing mechanism also took effect on 15 April. The new HPM formula raises base prices for all nickel ore grades and includes cobalt, iron and chromium in the valuation for the first time.

This matters because Indonesian nickel supply is no longer expanding under the same low-cost conditions that drove rapid output growth. Ore access, ore pricing, royalties and contained metal values are all becoming more tightly managed.

The policy impact is not evenly distributed. Eramet’s PT Weda Bay Nickel mine is preparing to enter care and maintenance in May after receiving an initial ore quota of just 12mn wet metric tonnes. This is far below last year’s final permit of up to 42mn wmt.

In contrast, Nickel Industries received quota approvals of 14.3mn wmt, up from 10.5mn wmt in 2025. This shows that Indonesia’s controls are not simply cutting all supply. They are also reshaping which operators receive ore access.

The quota system could therefore become a major competitive factor. Producers with larger approved volumes may gain stronger operating flexibility, while others face lower utilisation, higher costs or temporary shutdowns.

HPAL producers are especially exposed. These plants require steady limonite ore supply and large volumes of sulphuric acid or sulphur-linked feedstock. Tighter ore availability and higher reagent costs can quickly pressure margins.

Disrupted sulphur flows from the Middle East conflict have raised concern over HPAL feedstock availability. This is important because Indonesian HPAL projects have become key suppliers of mixed hydroxide precipitate for battery material production.

If sulphur costs remain elevated and ore prices rise under the new HPM formula, HPAL production costs could increase materially. That would weaken the low-cost supply advantage that helped Indonesia dominate battery-linked nickel intermediates.

Stainless Steel Supports Demand as Batteries Disappoint

Stainless steel remains the main support for nickel demand. INSG said the stainless steel sector grew in 2025 and is expected to expand further in 2026.

This is important because stainless steel still consumes far more nickel than the battery sector. Demand from stainless steel, alloys and industrial uses continues to anchor the primary nickel market.

Battery demand has grown more slowly than earlier expectations. Lithium iron phosphate chemistries have gained market share, reducing nickel intensity in parts of the electric vehicle market.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle demand has also outpaced fully battery-electric vehicle demand in some markets. This has limited the speed at which nickel-rich battery chemistries absorb new supply.

The result is a market caught between two forces. Supply growth is slowing because of Indonesian ore controls and higher input costs. However, battery demand is not rising fast enough to create a large structural shortage.

This makes the 2026 nickel deficit highly sensitive to policy and disruption. If Indonesia raises quotas, supply could recover. If sulphur, energy or ore costs worsen, the deficit could deepen.

The forecast also changes the market narrative. Nickel has spent recent years under pressure from surplus supply and rising inventories. A move into deficit, even a small one, could stabilise sentiment and support prices.

Still, the deficit is not yet a sign of broad scarcity. It is a warning that Indonesia’s supply discipline, not battery demand alone, is now determining the market balance.

For producers, cost control and ore access will become more important. For buyers, the focus will shift toward supplier reliability, feedstock route and exposure to Indonesian policy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The nickel market is not tightening because batteries suddenly absorbed the surplus. It is tightening because Indonesia is putting discipline into ore supply while HPAL costs rise. That makes the nickel deficit more policy-driven than demand-driven.

Ferro-Chrome Prices Under Pressure Amid Rising Global Production

ICDA

The ferro-chrome market is experiencing persistent downward pressure on spot prices, driven by rising global production and weaker demand from downstream markets in the EU and US. These trends were highlighted during the International Chromium Development Association (ICDA) annual conference in South Africa.

Rising Global Production and Market Shifts

According to ICDA senior market analyst Tanya Atalay, global ferro-chrome production in the second quarter of 2024 surged 12.4% quarter-on-quarter and 23% year-on-year, contributing to a 15% year-on-year increase for the first half of 2024, reaching 9.1 million tons. This rise was primarily fueled by higher production of high-carbon and low-carbon ferro-chrome, while medium-carbon output declined.

China and Kazakhstan emerged as the main drivers of increased production:

China expanded its ferro-chrome capacity significantly, contributing to global oversupply.

Kazakhstan leveraged low energy costs to gain a 3% increase in market share, reaching 20% of global production in the first half of 2024.

Conversely, India's market share dropped from 12% in 2023 to 8% in 2024. Meanwhile, African ferro-chrome production faced setbacks due to power shortages and high electricity costs, leading to a 5% decline in output. Despite this, South Africa maintained its dominance in global ferro-chrome exports, with a 58% share in the first half of 2024, albeit slightly down by 1% from the previous year.

Future Challenges and Price Outlook

While increased consumption in China and India bolstered demand for ferro-chrome in 2024, slowing economic growth in China is projected to reduce consumption in 2025. Meanwhile, intensified competition from Kazakh and Indonesian producers is expected to further pressure prices.

Indonesia has significantly ramped up its production, achieving a 25% growth in 2024 and reducing its reliance on imports. This expansion aligns with China's increased capacity, also projected to grow by 25% in 2024. However, global production growth outside these regions remains modest at 11%, primarily driven by India.

Market participants at the ICDA conference expect ferro-chrome prices to continue trending downward due to the supply surplus. Many believe the market has yet to reach its price floor, as the industry adjusts to post-COVID normalization and increasing competition.

AMG to Establish US Chrome Metal Production Plant

AMG Critical Materials

AMG Chrome Expansion Targets Strategic Metal Supply Chain

Dutch firm AMG Critical Materials plans to build a chrome metal production facility in Pennsylvania by early 2026. The plant will produce 6,500 t/yr of aluminothermic chrome metal and aims to bolster US domestic capacity amid supply chain pressures.

Strengthening Domestic Chrome Supply

The $15 million investment will be located in New Castle, Pennsylvania, next to AMG Titanium’s existing plant. This strategic move builds on AMG’s extensive experience in chrome production through its UK-based subsidiary, AMG Chrome. The company’s Rotherham site currently produces high-purity degassed chrome and powders.

Meanwhile, AMG Titanium has supplied titanium master alloys and specialty metals to the defense, energy, and aerospace sectors for decades. The proximity of the new chrome plant is expected to support vertical integration and operational efficiency.

Geopolitical and Strategic Context

Chrome metal is vital for high-temperature applications, especially in defense and aerospace. The US government lists it as a critical material. The new US facility comes as Washington grapples with a limited domestic supply. Unwrought chromium and powders were exempted from recent tariffs due to the country’s lack of local production.

However, rising geopolitical tensions and the 25% tariff on Chinese chrome imposed in September 2024 have increased costs for US buyers. Following sanctions on Russian supplies, the US has become heavily dependent on China, heightening the urgency for local alternatives.

The Metalnomist Commentary

AMG’s investment highlights the growing Western push to onshore critical metal production amid supply chain risks. As trade tensions with China escalate, establishing domestic chrome output could offer long-term stability for aerospace and defense sectors.

South Africa to Criminalise Illegal Mining While Supporting Artisanal Miners

S Africa Illegal Mining

New Legal Framework to Tackle Illegal Mining

South Africa will criminalise illegal mining for the first time, marking a significant policy shift to combat long-standing challenges in its mining sector. Deputy minerals and petroleum resources minister Phumzile Mgcina announced the change at the London Indaba conference, emphasizing that current laws do not classify illegal mining as a crime. The new legal framework will allow enforcement officers to enter illegal sites and make arrests immediately, strengthening the state’s ability to curb the activity.

Illegal mining, often driven by depleted industrial mines, involves an estimated 30,000 miners known as “zama zama.” These miners target gold, platinum group metals (PGMs), chromium, and manganese. The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime estimates that the country loses about 10pc of annual chrome output to illegal operations, empowering criminal networks and eroding formal industry revenues.

Artisanal Mining Licences as a Pathway to Legitimacy

While introducing strict measures against illegal operations, the government has created artisanal mining permits under its critical minerals and metals strategy. This initiative differentiates artisanal mining from criminal activities, aiming to integrate small-scale miners into the formal economy.

Permits will address long-standing bottlenecks such as delays in processing applications and poor transparency. By granting artisanal miners legal recognition, the government seeks to provide support systems, ensure compliance with environmental and safety standards, and reduce the appeal of illegal mining. This dual strategy responds to international criticism following the government’s earlier crackdown, which cut off food and water to hundreds of trapped miners, leading to deaths.

The Metalnomist Commentary

South Africa’s decision to criminalise illegal mining while formalising artisanal operations represents a balancing act between security and inclusion. This approach could reduce the influence of criminal groups, but its success will depend on efficient permit administration and robust enforcement capacity. The international mining community will closely monitor how these reforms reshape the sector’s stability and sustainability.

ERG Kazakh Mining Investment Signals a Bigger Push Into Strategic Metals

ERG

ERG Kazakh mining investment marks a major expansion across mining, metals, and energy infrastructure. Eurasian Resources Group will invest $1bn in Kazakhstan operations. The plan covers new production facilities and plant upgrades. As a result, ERG Kazakh mining investment could deepen Kazakhstan’s role in strategic metals supply.

The investment stands out because it targets both existing strengths and new product categories. ERG already holds major positions in ferro-chrome, copper, cobalt, and aluminium. However, the new plan also includes gallium and hot briquetted iron. Therefore, the company is moving beyond scale toward broader industrial capability.

This strategy also aligns with Kazakhstan’s push for higher-value domestic processing. ERG is 40pc owned by the Kazakh government. That ownership gives the investment added policy importance. Meanwhile, the company is directing capital into assets that can reshape national metals capacity.

Kazakhstan Strategic Metals Strategy Expands Beyond Traditional Ferro-Alloys

Kazakhstan strategic metals development is becoming more diversified through this investment cycle. ERG plans to build production for materials not currently made in Kazakhstan. Gallium is the clearest example. Consequently, the project carries significance beyond normal mining expansion.

Gallium production Kazakhstan could gain new strategic relevance if the plan succeeds. ERG is targeting annual gallium capacity of 15t. That volume is modest in absolute terms. However, gallium matters because it supports semiconductors, electronics, and advanced industrial applications.

The broader programme also includes a new chromium mine and modernisation at Aksu Power Station. ERG will also build vertical calcination kilns and filtration units at Pavlodar Alumina Plant. These projects improve production depth rather than only adding raw tonnage. Therefore, the investment looks designed to strengthen industrial resilience.

Hot Briquetted Iron Kazakhstan Plan Adds Value to the Steel Chain

Hot briquetted iron Kazakhstan development is another important part of the package. ERG intends to advance an HBI plant and an iron ore pellet plant this year. HBI offers a cleaner and more tradable iron unit than many traditional forms. As a result, it could support both export competitiveness and lower-emission steelmaking options.

The company is also building an 80MW ferro-alloy gas utilisation power station at Aktobe. That project matters because power efficiency remains critical in ferro-alloy production. Improved energy integration can protect margins and reduce waste. Meanwhile, it can make domestic metallurgy more competitive.

ERG Kazakh mining investment therefore combines metals expansion with infrastructure reinforcement. It is not simply a capacity announcement. It is a portfolio redesign around strategic materials, processing value, and energy efficiency. That makes the programme more important than its headline number alone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This investment shows Kazakhstan wants more than raw resource relevance. It wants stronger control over value-added metals and processing chains. If execution stays on track, ERG could become a more important strategic supplier across both traditional alloys and emerging critical materials.

Vedanta Expands Metals Exploration Across India to Secure Critical Minerals

Vedanta

Multi-state exploration strengthens Vedanta’s role in clean energy supply chains

Vedanta expands metals exploration across six Indian states in a strategic push to secure critical minerals essential for clean energy technologies. The company is targeting copper, nickel, cobalt, vanadium, tungsten, chromium, and PGEs in regions including Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Chhattisgarh. This initiative aligns with India’s growing focus on mineral self-sufficiency and value chain localization.

Auction wins and value-added aluminum investment boost vertical integration

In the fourth round of India’s critical mineral auctions, Vedanta secured four mineral blocks. These include vanadium and graphite in Arunachal Pradesh, and a polymetallic block with cobalt, manganese, and iron in Karnataka. Its subsidiary Hindustan Zinc (HZL) also won two tungsten blocks in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Alongside exploration, Vedanta is expanding downstream capabilities—targeting over 90% value-added aluminum output through investments in billets, foundry alloys, rolled products, and wire rods.

Zinc alloy innovation and aluminum capex signal industrial diversification

HZL is diversifying zinc use cases beyond steel galvanization by launching a 30,000-tonne zinc alloy facility. Meanwhile, Vedanta is investing $1.5 billion to expand aluminum smelting and rolling capacity, including a major upgrade at its Odisha plant. These developments aim to deepen Vedanta’s footprint in aerospace, defense, solar, EVs, and battery infrastructure—critical to India's low-carbon ambitions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vedanta’s aggressive critical mineral exploration and aluminum investments reflect India’s urgent drive to localize energy transition supply chains. With a diversified portfolio and state-backed auction wins, Vedanta is positioning itself as a key pillar in India's clean energy industrial ecosystem.

US Steel Gary Tin Mill Restart Targets Domestic Tinplate Supply Security

US Steel

US Steel Gary Tin Mill production is set to restart in early 2027 as the integrated steel producer moves to rebuild domestic tin coated steel supply. The idled facility is part of US Steel’s wider Gary Works complex in Indiana.

The US Steel Gary Tin Mill has roughly 500,000 short tons of idled capacity across two production lines. The mill has been offline since 2022, but the company now plans to bring it back after maintenance, equipment inspection, material procurement and workforce preparation.

US Steel Gary Tin Mill restart costs are estimated at $15mn-20mn. The investment is relatively modest compared with a greenfield project, but the industrial significance is larger because tin coated steel has become a more sensitive domestic supply issue.

The restart comes as US customers seek more dependable local supply for packaging and industrial applications. It also reflects a wider shift toward trade protection, domestic manufacturing resilience and reduced exposure to imported coated steel products.

Trade Cases Support Domestic Tin Coated Steel Production

US Steel framed the restart as a response to domestic tin demand in a more protectionist trade environment. The company said customers are increasingly focused on long-term domestic supply security.

On 9 April, US Steel and the United Steelworkers union filed an antidumping duty case against China, Taiwan and Turkey. The case covers imports of tin and chromium coated sheet steel.

A separate countervailing duty case was also filed against subsidised tin coated steel products from China. These trade actions could support domestic producers if authorities determine that imports are unfairly priced or subsidised.

The timing is important. Restarting the Gary Tin Mill would give US Steel more capacity to serve customers if duties raise import costs or reduce import availability.

Tin coated steel is used in food and beverage packaging, aerosol products and oil filtration goods. These are not speculative markets. They are established industrial and consumer supply chains where reliability, quality and delivery timing matter.

The restart also gives US Steel a stronger position in value-added flat steel. Tinplate and coated sheet require specific finishing capability and customer qualification, making them more specialised than commodity hot-rolled or cold-rolled products.

Packaging and Industrial Buyers Seek Reliable Local Supply

The Gary Tin Mill restart reflects the growing importance of domestic supply in packaging materials. Food and beverage packaging depends on consistent access to tin coated steel, especially for cans and other shelf-stable products.

Aerosol products and oil filtration goods also rely on coated steel for corrosion resistance, formability and product protection. These applications require stable quality and predictable supply from qualified mills.

Domestic buyers have become more sensitive to import risk. Tariffs, antidumping cases, logistics disruption and geopolitical uncertainty can all affect material availability and pricing.

US Steel’s restart could help reduce that risk by returning idled capacity to the market. However, the impact will depend on how smoothly the company completes maintenance and prepares the required workforce.

The early 2027 timeline also matters. Buyers facing uncertainty in 2026 will not see immediate supply relief, but the restart could improve medium-term market confidence.

For the US steel industry, the project shows how idled finishing capacity can regain strategic value under trade protection. Instead of building new capacity from scratch, companies can reactivate existing assets when market conditions and policy support improve.

The broader message is clear. Domestic steel supply security is expanding beyond primary steelmaking. Coated, finished and application-specific steel products are also becoming part of the industrial resilience debate.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US Steel Gary Tin Mill restart shows how trade protection can revive idled downstream steel capacity. The key question is whether domestic buyers will commit enough demand to support the restart beyond the current tariff and trade-case cycle.

Indonesia Nickel Royalty Changes Delayed as Jakarta Balances State Revenue and Producer Costs

Indonesia Nickel

Indonesia nickel royalty changes have been delayed as the government reviews planned royalty increases and export taxes for nickel products. Jakarta is trying to balance higher state revenue with the cost pressure already facing miners, smelters and battery-material producers.

Indonesia nickel royalty changes were initially expected to take effect in June. But the energy and mineral resources ministry will now reassess the policy after industry consultations.

Indonesia nickel royalty changes are part of a wider policy reset covering nickel, copper, tin, gold, silver and other minerals. The government wants a formula that captures more value for the state without damaging investment in downstream processing.

The delay also applies to planned export duties on nickel products. Indonesia will continue finalising the pricing mechanism for the duty, but implementation has been pushed back.

Downstreaming Policy Meets Rising Cost Pressure

Indonesia’s nickel export duty plan is tied to its downstreaming strategy. The policy aims to push mining and metals companies to build more domestic value-added capacity instead of exporting lower-value materials.

The country has already become the world’s most important nickel processing hub. However, officials say the sector has developed only about 40% of its potential, leaving room for more investment in battery materials, stainless steel and other downstream products.

The royalty delay shows that Indonesia understands the risk of overloading producers with too many cost increases at once. Miners and processors are already dealing with tighter RKAB quotas, higher ore costs and rising input risks.

Indonesia updated its nickel ore pricing formula on 15 April. The new mechanism includes cobalt, iron and chromium in ore valuation, increasing raw material costs for downstream users.

This change is especially important for high-pressure acid leach projects, which consume limonite ore and produce mixed hydroxide precipitate for battery supply chains. Higher ore prices can raise costs for nickel intermediates and reduce margins.

Sulphur supply risk is another pressure point. Middle East disruption has raised concerns over sulphur availability, a key input for nickel processing. This has supported nickel prices but also increased uncertainty for producers.

Nickel Prices Supported by Policy and Supply Risk

Indonesia’s recent policy shifts have generally supported nickel prices. LME nickel rose to around $19,450/t on 6 May from $18,075/t on 15 April, supported by the revised ore pricing formula, sulphur supply concerns and lower 2026 RKAB quota expectations.

The delayed royalty and export tax changes may ease immediate producer pressure. But they do not reverse the broader direction of Indonesian policy.

Jakarta still wants to capture more value from its mineral resources. It also wants companies to keep investing in domestic processing and a more complete nickel supply chain.

For the nickel market, this creates a more policy-sensitive pricing environment. Ore quotas, benchmark formulas, export taxes, royalties and downstream investment rules can all influence costs and trade flows.

The delay gives producers time, but not certainty. Companies will still need to plan for higher government take, stricter ore valuation and stronger pressure to invest in domestic value-added products.

Indonesia’s nickel strategy is therefore entering a more complex phase. The country wants to remain the dominant global nickel hub, but it must avoid weakening the economics that attracted downstream investment in the first place.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s delay is not a retreat from resource nationalism; it is a recalibration. Jakarta wants more value from nickel, but it also knows that excessive cost pressure could slow the downstreaming model that made Indonesia central to global battery and stainless steel supply.

Outokumpu Significantly Increases Chrome Ore Reserves at Kemi Mine

Outokumpu

Finnish ferrochrome producer Outokumpu has announced a substantial 95% increase in its estimated mineral reserves at the Kemi chrome ore mine. This significant expansion is attributed to recent successful underground drilling efforts.

Reserve Increase and Economic Impact

The proven mineral reserves at the Kemi mine have risen to approximately 62.5 million tonnes of chrome ore, a remarkable 30.4 million tonne increase from the previous estimate.  Outokumpu estimates that these reserves, if converted entirely into ferrochrome and sold at average prices from January to September 2024, could generate approximately $15.5 billion. This highlights the substantial economic value of the increased reserves.

Mine Expansion and Long-Term Outlook

Outokumpu's strategic expansion of the mine's depth from 500 meters to 1,000 meters between 2017 and 2023 has played a crucial role in boosting the reserve estimates.  This expansion has significantly extended the mine's operational lifespan, with current projections indicating the availability of chromium until the 2050s. 

This long-term outlook provides Outokumpu with a secure and stable supply of chrome ore, strengthening its position in the ferrochrome market.  The increased reserves not only benefit Outokumpu but also contribute to the stability of the global ferrochrome supply chain.

Rhenium Deficit Persists, Boosting Recycling Prospects

Rhenium Recycling

Rhenium, a rare metal critical for aerospace, medical, and catalyst applications, is facing a growing supply deficit, driving prices to new highs. As demand continues to surge, particularly from the aerospace and medical sectors, the need for rhenium is expected to increase further, creating a shortage that could significantly impact long-term contracts and stockpiles. The rising costs and limited supply of primary rhenium have prompted a renewed focus on recycling, with many buyers turning to secondary sources to secure supplies.

Strong Demand Drives Price Surge

Over the past few months, rhenium prices have seen a sharp rise, with strong demand from aerospace and medical applications leading the charge. From late June to early September 2024, prices surged in major markets including the U.S., Europe, and China. Although prices have stabilized recently, consumers, especially in the aerospace sector, are becoming more concerned with availability rather than the spot price. Rhenium producers have reported depleted stockpiles, exacerbating the ongoing supply squeeze.

A major contributing factor to the shortage has been the dramatic increase in Chinese rhenium imports, with China importing over 26 tons of rhenium from Chile in 2023—about one-third of the world’s annual output. This surge is linked to China’s efforts to boost its aviation engine technology and reduce dependence on foreign suppliers for both civil and military aircraft.

Medical Sector Adds to Growing Demand

Rhenium’s role in medical implants has also become a significant driver of demand. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the use of the molybdenum-rhenium (Mo-50Re) alloy in medical implants in August 2024, marking a breakthrough that could replace cobalt-chromium and titanium-based materials in various implants. The medical sector’s rhenium demand is expected to range from 10 to 20 tons over the next two years, further tightening the already constrained supply. While the medical market in China remains uncertain, the country’s growing consumption in this field could add pressure to global supply chains.

Supply Constraints and the Need for Recycling

Rhenium’s supply is highly inelastic, meaning it cannot quickly adjust to changes in demand. The metal is primarily extracted as a by-product of copper and molybdenum sulphide concentrates, and its production process is complex and costly. As a result, it is difficult to ramp up production quickly in response to spikes in demand, and with long-term contracts already accounting for most of the world’s rhenium output, spot sales are limited.

With limited primary supply available, many consumers in the aerospace and medical sectors are now turning to secondary materials. Rhenium recycling has emerged as a viable solution in an environment of rising prices. According to James Peer, director of Maritime House, recycling serves as a natural hedge in a market with an unreliable primary supply. Dandy Roh, CEO of DongASpecialMetal, also confirmed that with prices on the rise, recycling is becoming increasingly attractive.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reported that approximately 25,000 kg of secondary rhenium was produced worldwide in 2023, reflecting growing interest in recycled material. However, despite the potential for recycling to ease supply pressures, there is no direct substitute for rhenium in many of its critical applications, particularly in superalloys and catalysts. This lack of alternatives compounds the challenges posed by the supply crunch.

Future Outlook: Higher Prices and Potential Substitutes

Given the continued supply constraints, rhenium prices are expected to rise further. However, prices would need to increase significantly before end-users consider switching to substitute materials. While alternatives such as gallium, germanium, and indium are being evaluated for use in rhenium catalysts, they are not yet seen as viable substitutes in superalloys. Consequently, the increasing demand for rhenium across various sectors suggests that the metal’s value will continue to rise, reinforcing the case for recycling as a key strategy to mitigate supply risks.

As rhenium prices continue to climb, recycling will likely play an essential role in meeting the growing demand, providing a necessary hedge for industries dependent on this critical metal.