Indonesia Nickel Ore Quotas Risk Tightening Feedstock Without Fixing Oversupply

Indonesia Nickel

Indonesia nickel ore quotas are becoming a more powerful market signal in 2026. Jakarta is expected to cut RKAB approvals to around 250mn–260mn t. That looks like a strong intervention on paper. However, Indonesia nickel ore quotas may tighten feedstock without solving Indonesian nickel oversupply in downstream products.

The core imbalance is no longer in ore. The real surplus sits in nickel pig iron, matte, and mixed hydroxide precipitate. Domestic ore prices remain elevated, which suggests ore availability is still tight. Therefore, Indonesia nickel ore quotas may create upstream stress while leaving downstream nickel products oversupplied.

This matters because policy and market structure are moving in opposite directions. Indonesia continues to expand smelting and HPAL capacity aggressively. At the same time, ore quotas are becoming harder to secure in full. As a result, the market may move toward feedstock shortages rather than a true rebalancing of refined nickel supply.

Indonesia Nickel Ore Quotas Could Create an Upstream Bottleneck

Indonesia nickel ore quotas appear lower than expected ore demand for 2026. The approved ceiling now looks below estimated domestic ore requirements. That gap raises the risk of feedstock shortages for smelters. Consequently, nickel ore supply tightness may become the market’s next major problem.

Vale Indonesia shows how this pressure is already emerging. Market participants say its approved RKAB is only a fraction of requested volume. Yet the company is developing multiple HPAL projects that will require large limonite ore volumes. Therefore, limited quota approvals could constrain new downstream capacity before it reaches full utilisation.

The ore issue is also more complex than headline tonnage suggests. RKAB quotas are issued in wet tons, not uniform recoverable nickel units. Moisture content and ore grade can vary significantly. As a result, nominal quota levels may overstate real usable feedstock availability.

Regulatory uncertainty adds another layer of risk. Indonesia’s forestry crackdown has targeted a large area of mining land without valid permits. Nickel operations could be affected, especially smaller miners or forest-zone projects. Meanwhile, quota delays themselves can disrupt ore availability even before formal supply cuts take full effect.

Indonesian Nickel Oversupply Will Persist Unless Smelter Output Is Also Disciplined

Indonesian nickel oversupply is still concentrated in processed products, not in ore. Cutting ore quotas alone does not automatically solve NPI, matte, or MHP oversupply. Smelters can still try to secure imported feedstock from the Philippines or New Caledonia. However, those alternative sources remain limited and unreliable.

That means imported ore is a cost issue, not a structural solution. Greater reliance on foreign ore would lift smelter input costs and compress margins. It would not remove the global glut in downstream nickel products. Therefore, the policy may shift pressure upstream while preserving the same downstream oversupply.

Royalties could deepen that squeeze further. Higher nickel prices may trigger increased royalty rates on ore and processed products. That would raise costs across the chain at a time when refined markets remain weak. As a result, profitability could deteriorate even if LME prices stay temporarily supported.

The government may still adjust course later in the year. Producers can use part of earlier three-year approvals through the end of March, and market participants expect later reviews. That suggests the headline RKAB figure may not be a fixed ceiling. Even so, policy uncertainty is already becoming a stronger driver of nickel prices than actual market healing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia is trying to influence prices through ore control, but the real surplus remains downstream. That mismatch could turn a refined nickel glut into an upstream bottleneck without delivering true market balance. Unless ore discipline is matched by smelter discipline, volatility will remain the defining feature of the nickel market.

Indonesia Nickel Royalty Changes Delayed as Jakarta Balances State Revenue and Producer Costs

Indonesia Nickel

Indonesia nickel royalty changes have been delayed as the government reviews planned royalty increases and export taxes for nickel products. Jakarta is trying to balance higher state revenue with the cost pressure already facing miners, smelters and battery-material producers.

Indonesia nickel royalty changes were initially expected to take effect in June. But the energy and mineral resources ministry will now reassess the policy after industry consultations.

Indonesia nickel royalty changes are part of a wider policy reset covering nickel, copper, tin, gold, silver and other minerals. The government wants a formula that captures more value for the state without damaging investment in downstream processing.

The delay also applies to planned export duties on nickel products. Indonesia will continue finalising the pricing mechanism for the duty, but implementation has been pushed back.

Downstreaming Policy Meets Rising Cost Pressure

Indonesia’s nickel export duty plan is tied to its downstreaming strategy. The policy aims to push mining and metals companies to build more domestic value-added capacity instead of exporting lower-value materials.

The country has already become the world’s most important nickel processing hub. However, officials say the sector has developed only about 40% of its potential, leaving room for more investment in battery materials, stainless steel and other downstream products.

The royalty delay shows that Indonesia understands the risk of overloading producers with too many cost increases at once. Miners and processors are already dealing with tighter RKAB quotas, higher ore costs and rising input risks.

Indonesia updated its nickel ore pricing formula on 15 April. The new mechanism includes cobalt, iron and chromium in ore valuation, increasing raw material costs for downstream users.

This change is especially important for high-pressure acid leach projects, which consume limonite ore and produce mixed hydroxide precipitate for battery supply chains. Higher ore prices can raise costs for nickel intermediates and reduce margins.

Sulphur supply risk is another pressure point. Middle East disruption has raised concerns over sulphur availability, a key input for nickel processing. This has supported nickel prices but also increased uncertainty for producers.

Nickel Prices Supported by Policy and Supply Risk

Indonesia’s recent policy shifts have generally supported nickel prices. LME nickel rose to around $19,450/t on 6 May from $18,075/t on 15 April, supported by the revised ore pricing formula, sulphur supply concerns and lower 2026 RKAB quota expectations.

The delayed royalty and export tax changes may ease immediate producer pressure. But they do not reverse the broader direction of Indonesian policy.

Jakarta still wants to capture more value from its mineral resources. It also wants companies to keep investing in domestic processing and a more complete nickel supply chain.

For the nickel market, this creates a more policy-sensitive pricing environment. Ore quotas, benchmark formulas, export taxes, royalties and downstream investment rules can all influence costs and trade flows.

The delay gives producers time, but not certainty. Companies will still need to plan for higher government take, stricter ore valuation and stronger pressure to invest in domestic value-added products.

Indonesia’s nickel strategy is therefore entering a more complex phase. The country wants to remain the dominant global nickel hub, but it must avoid weakening the economics that attracted downstream investment in the first place.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s delay is not a retreat from resource nationalism; it is a recalibration. Jakarta wants more value from nickel, but it also knows that excessive cost pressure could slow the downstreaming model that made Indonesia central to global battery and stainless steel supply.

Jutai Nickel Cathode Production Adds Flexibility to China’s Downstream Nickel Chain

Zhejiang Jutai Plant

Jutai nickel cathode production has started at Zhejiang Jutai’s integrated refinery in Zhoushan, adding new capacity to China’s fast-expanding downstream nickel processing sector. The facility has 30,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity and can use mixed hydroxide precipitate or nickel matte as feedstock.

Jutai nickel cathode production strengthens the company’s ability to respond to changing nickel market conditions. The same Zhoushan site also hosts a 100,000 t/yr nickel sulphate project that was commissioned in October 2025, giving the complex around 55,000 t/yr of nickel capacity on a metal equivalent basis.

The new operation matters because China is rapidly converting imported nickel intermediates into higher-value products. Jutai nickel cathode production shows how MHP and matte supply are reshaping the country’s refining system beyond battery chemicals alone.

MHP and Matte Supply Drive New Refining Capacity

Nickel intermediates are becoming the foundation of China’s new nickel processing model. Growing supplies of MHP and nickel matte allow refiners to produce nickel sulphate, nickel cathode, and other downstream products depending on margins and customer demand.

Zhejiang Jutai’s Zhoushan complex reflects this flexible approach. The company can switch between nickel sulphate and nickel cathode output, which gives it commercial optionality across battery materials and refined metal markets. This flexibility is important when nickel prices, sulphate demand, and stainless steel-linked sentiment move in different directions.

The development also shows how China continues to capture value from Indonesia-linked nickel flows. As MHP and matte availability expands, Chinese refiners can build more diversified processing routes and strengthen their role in the global nickel value chain.

China Nickel Cathode Output Continues to Expand

China’s nickel cathode production reached 415,000t in 2025, up 24pc from the previous year. Output is expected to keep rising in 2026 as new capacity starts up, existing plants expand, and firmer nickel prices improve production economics.

Higher LME nickel prices are also supporting the sector. The average LME cash price reached $15,150/t in 2025, while the year-to-date average climbed to $17,482/t by late February, driven partly by reduced Indonesian nickel ore supply.

Shaanxi Jutai, Zhejiang Jutai’s parent company, already has experience in battery material production. Its Xi’an complex began producing nickel sulphate in 2018 and also produces cobalt sulphate, manganese sulphate, vanadium pentoxide, and molybdenum products. This gives the group a broader platform across strategic metals used in batteries, alloys, and industrial materials.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Jutai’s Zhoushan project highlights China’s strength in processing flexibility. The country is not only adding nickel capacity; it is building assets that can shift between battery chemicals and refined metal as market conditions change.

Indonesia Nickel Export Rule Creates New Uncertainty for Global Supply

Indonesia Nickel mining

Indonesia nickel export rule changes have created fresh uncertainty in the nickel market as Jakarta moves to centralise key commodity exports through state-owned enterprises. Market participants are now waiting for clearer details on scope, pricing and implementation.

Indonesia nickel export rule plans were announced by president Prabowo Subianto on 20 May. The policy will require exports of key commodities to be routed through a state-owned enterprise, or BUMN, which would act as the sole counterparty to overseas buyers.

Indonesia nickel export rule uncertainty matters because the country is the world’s dominant nickel producer, accounting for more than 60% of global supply. Most of that output is nickel pig iron, a ferroalloy used mainly in stainless steelmaking.

The policy will initially target palm oil, coal and ferrous alloys. Nickel pig iron is expected to fall under the rule because it is a ferroalloy, although other nickel products have not yet been explicitly included.

Nickel Pig Iron Trade Faces Centralisation Risk

Nickel pig iron is central to Indonesia’s nickel position. It is a lower-cost nickel-bearing feedstock for stainless steel production, but it cannot be used directly in batteries.

To enter the battery chain, NPI must first be converted into nickel matte and then processed further into nickel sulphate for cathode manufacturing. This means any disruption to NPI flows can affect stainless steel first, but may also influence battery-related nickel routes over time.

Indonesia has already used centralised systems for other commodities. Tin exports must be traded through official domestic exchanges, such as ICDX or JFX.

The new system would go further by placing a state-owned enterprise at the centre of export contracts, transactions and payment flows. From June to August, exporters are expected to gradually transfer these functions to BUMN. From September, all export transactions are expected to move fully through the state-owned structure.

Market participants are sceptical about the timeline. Many believe implementation from 1 June is too early because the policy still appears under preparation.

The lack of broad industry consultation has also increased concern. Traders say Jakarta consulted only a limited number of stakeholders before announcing the policy, contributing to confusion and weak market confidence.

Pricing and Product Scope Remain Unclear

The main uncertainty is scope. Ferroalloys are expected to be covered, but other nickel products have not been clearly defined. Many participants expect the policy to eventually expand across more nickel products.

Pricing is another major question. Buyers and sellers do not yet know whether export prices will be set by BUMN or negotiated commercially between counterparties.

A separate pricing framework may be introduced, but details are still missing. This matters because Indonesia’s nickel market already faces policy-driven cost changes, including ore pricing formula updates and royalty uncertainty.

The new export rule could tighten supply conditions if it slows contracting, complicates payments or reduces flexibility for private exporters. Even if physical output remains unchanged, transaction friction can affect availability.

The market reaction has so far been cautious rather than dramatic. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index fell, while LME nickel showed only limited movement after the announcement.

However, the longer-term implication is more significant. Indonesia is moving toward stronger state control over strategic natural resource flows.

For nickel buyers, this means procurement risk is no longer only about mine quotas, ore grades or processing costs. It now includes export governance, state counterparty risk and policy timing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia is turning nickel from a commodity export into a managed strategic resource. The rule may support state control, but poor implementation could disrupt the very downstream supply chain Jakarta has worked so hard to build.

NPI–Class I Nickel Spread Narrows as Metal Oversupply Pressures Prices

Nickel cathode

NPI–class I nickel spread narrowed sharply in March as persistent oversupply in the class I nickel market pushed metal prices lower, while nickel pig iron prices stayed supported by elevated production costs. The average spread fell to $2,975/t in March, down from the 2025 annual average of $3,696/t.

The narrower NPI–class I nickel spread shows how differently the two nickel markets are behaving. Class I nickel remains under pressure from high exchange stocks and weak absorption from battery and alloy users. NPI, by contrast, is being held up by Indonesian ore costs and a firmer production cost floor.

The current spread also discourages additional class I output from NPI conversion. Estimated conversion costs from NPI to class I nickel remain around $4,000/t, meaning producers using NPI as feedstock would face negative margins at current price levels.

This creates an important signal for the nickel supply chain. Oversupply is still weighing on refined metal, but high feedstock and processing costs are preventing prices from falling evenly across all nickel products.

Class I Nickel Oversupply Keeps Metal Prices Under Pressure

Class I nickel oversupply remains the main reason behind the compressed spread. London Metal Exchange nickel stocks reached 289,506t on 26 February, the highest level since May 2018.

Ample exchange inventory has pressured class I nickel prices and opened an import arbitrage window into China. China’s nickel imports rose by 18% in January-February as lower overseas prices made imported metal more attractive.

However, end-user demand has not been strong enough to absorb the surplus. Battery and alloy-sector consumption remained insufficient to clear the additional metal units, pushing Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel stocks higher.

SHFE nickel inventories rose to 65,764t on 10 April from 45,544t on 9 January. This inventory build shows that imports and domestic availability are running ahead of immediate consumption.

The oversupply problem is structural in the near term. New class I capacity has continued to emerge, while demand from stainless steel, batteries and specialty alloys has not grown fast enough to rebalance the market.

The NPI conversion route is therefore unattractive. When the NPI–class I nickel spread sits below conversion cost, producers have little incentive to turn NPI into refined metal. This helps prevent additional supply from that route, but it does not immediately remove existing class I oversupply.

NPI prices have been more resilient because they are tied closely to Indonesian ore economics. Indonesian nickel ore prices remain elevated and continue to trade above the government-mandated price floor.

Concerns over tight ore availability have supported feedstock values. This has limited NPI producers’ willingness to cut prices, even though stainless steel demand remains only average.

That cost floor is important. NPI is not rising because downstream demand is exceptionally strong. It is holding because ore, mining quotas and Indonesian pricing policy are preventing a deeper fall.

The result is a distorted market structure. Class I nickel is being pulled down by inventory pressure, while NPI is being supported by feedstock costs. This explains why the spread has narrowed despite weak overall nickel sentiment.

MHP and HPAL Costs Could Rebuild the Spread Over Time

Mixed hydroxide precipitate is becoming the more important cost driver for future class I nickel production. Much of the newly added class I capacity relies on MHP feedstock rather than NPI.

Integrated producers with their own Indonesian MHP capacity have a cost advantage. Their MHP production costs are estimated at around $13,000/t in nickel metal equivalent, with conversion costs from MHP to metal at roughly $3,000/t.

This places the total cost of class I production through the MHP route at about $16,000/t. That cost base can still support production for integrated operators, but it leaves less room for producers relying on third-party MHP.

The market problem is that MHP supply is not sufficient to meet all feedstock requirements for new class I capacity. This creates competition for MHP units and limits how much low-cost refined nickel can be produced through this route.

Cost pressure is also rising across HPAL operations. Middle East tensions have tightened sulphur availability and lifted sulphur prices, which directly affects MHP producers that rely on sulphuric acid-intensive processing.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid are central to HPAL economics. Any disruption to sulphur flows can raise operating costs, reduce margins or force producers to curtail output if acid availability becomes constrained.

Indonesia’s revised nickel ore pricing formula adds another layer of pressure. The new formula is expected to have a greater impact on ore consumed by HPAL projects than on ore used by rotary kiln electric furnace operations.

This is because HPAL ore often trades closer to official pricing levels, while RKEF ore used for NPI already trades at premiums well above the benchmark. As a result, HPAL producers may feel the revised HPM framework more directly.

Higher ore prices and higher taxes could lift MHP production costs. That would eventually raise the cost floor for class I nickel produced through the MHP route, especially for integrated producers that had previously enjoyed lower feedstock costs.

This cost inflation may support class I nickel prices over time. While current oversupply is weighing on metal values, producers cannot keep adding supply indefinitely if feedstock and conversion costs rise.

NPI prices are also likely to remain anchored by costs. Indonesian ore tightness, quota uncertainty and pricing reforms should continue to support NPI even if stainless steel demand stays moderate.

As MHP costs rise and NPI prices remain cost-supported, the NPI–class I nickel spread may widen back toward the $3,500-4,000/t range over time. That would restore a more normal relationship between feedstock products and refined metal.

However, the timing depends on inventory absorption. Class I nickel prices will struggle to recover strongly until exchange stocks stop rising and downstream demand improves.

For battery supply chains, the key issue is cost pass-through. If MHP and HPAL costs rise while class I prices remain weak, margins across nickel sulphate and cathode material chains could tighten.

For stainless steel producers, NPI resilience means raw material costs may remain sticky even without strong demand. This could limit margin recovery if finished stainless prices do not rise in parallel.

The nickel market is therefore entering a complex adjustment phase. Oversupply is pushing refined metal lower, while policy, ore availability, sulphur costs and HPAL economics are raising the cost floor beneath intermediate products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The narrowing NPI–class I nickel spread is not a sign of healthy convergence. It reflects class I oversupply on one side and cost-protected NPI on the other. The next shift will likely come from rising HPAL and MHP costs, not from a sudden recovery in nickel demand.

Nickel Industries Indonesian Output Shows Ore Pressure Despite HPAL Growth

Nickel Industries, Indonesian

Nickel Industries Indonesian output was mixed in the first quarter as lower mining volumes and declining nickel grades contrasted with higher nickel pig iron and mixed hydroxide precipitate production. The Australia-based producer reported weaker ore output but stronger downstream processing across its Indonesian RKEF and HPAL assets.

Nickel Industries Indonesian output reflects the increasingly complex operating environment for nickel producers in Indonesia. Mining permits, ore grades, sulphur availability and downstream ramp-up timing are all shaping production performance.

Nickel Industries Indonesian output also shows why Indonesia’s nickel market can no longer be viewed only through capacity additions. Feedstock access and ore quality are becoming just as important as new processing plants.

Total nickel ore production fell by 30% from a year earlier to 3.96mn wet metric tonnes in January-March. However, output almost tripled from the previous quarter after mining activity recovered from RKAB quota delays late last year.

RKAB Quota Recovery Supports Ore Flow but Grades Weaken

Nickel Industries received 14.3mn wmt of 2026 RKAB nickel ore quota this year. This was 36% higher than its total approved quota of 10.5mn wmt in 2025.

The higher quota helped production recover from the December quarter, when mining was disrupted by RKAB delays. The company also plans to apply for additional RKAB quotas later this year.

The Hengjaya mine supplies ore to Nickel Industries’ RKEF and HPAL plants. These facilities produce nickel pig iron for stainless steel markets and mixed hydroxide precipitate for battery material supply chains.

Total NPI output from the Hengjaya, Ranger, Oracle and Angel RKEF operations rose by 4.4% year on year and 1.7% quarter on quarter to 274,086t.

However, nickel-contained production fell to 30,264t because the average nickel content of NPI dropped to 11% from 12.1% a year earlier. This is a critical signal for margins because lower grades reduce metal output even when furnace volumes rise.

The result shows how Indonesian nickel producers face a tightening relationship between ore availability and processing efficiency. Higher RKEF output does not automatically mean stronger nickel production if feedstock grades weaken.

HPAL Growth Continues as ENC Start-Up Moves to Second Quarter

Nickel Industries’ Huayue Nickel Cobalt HPAL project produced 21,526t of nickel and 2,370t of cobalt in MHP form during the first quarter. Nickel output rose by 1.7% from a year earlier, while cobalt output increased by 23%.

This growth strengthens Nickel Industries’ exposure to battery materials. MHP remains a key intermediate product for nickel sulphate and other battery chemical supply chains.

The company’s next major step is the Excelsior Nickel Cobalt HPAL project. Commissioning has been delayed to the second quarter, with full ramp-up targeted by the end of October.

ENC had previously been expected to start commissioning in the first quarter. The delay matters because HPAL projects are technically complex and depend on stable feedstock, acid supply, utilities and commissioning discipline.

Nickel Industries said it has enough sulphur inventory to support ENC’s ramp-up until the third quarter. The company previously bought sulphur at an average price of $450/t.

Sulphur availability is now a strategic issue for HPAL producers. Any disruption in sulphur or sulphuric acid supply can raise costs and slow production growth across Indonesia’s battery nickel chain.

The company also plans to list nickel cathode produced at ENC on both the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange. Exchange approval would support market acceptance and improve the project’s commercial flexibility.

Nickel Industries increased its stake in ENC by 2% for $46mn on 1 April, lifting its interest to 46% and making it the project’s largest shareholder. This gives the company greater exposure to Indonesia’s move from NPI and MHP toward Class I nickel products.

The broader implication is clear. Nickel Industries is moving across the Indonesian nickel value chain, from ore mining and RKEF production into HPAL, MHP and exchange-deliverable cathode.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nickel Industries’ quarter shows that Indonesia’s nickel growth is becoming more constrained by ore quality, RKAB permits and sulphur logistics. Capacity still matters, but the winners will be producers that control feedstock, manage HPAL complexity and secure recognised Class I nickel routes.

SHFE Indonesian Nickel Cathode Brands Strengthen Indonesia’s Class I Nickel Role

The Shanghai Futures Exchange

SHFE Indonesian nickel cathode brands have gained a major credibility boost after the Shanghai Futures Exchange approved two Indonesian-produced nickel cathode brands for delivery against SHFE contracts. The approvals cover PTENICO from Eternal Nickel Industry and DX zwdx from CNGR Dingxing New Energy.

The approvals mark an important step in Indonesia’s move from nickel ore and intermediate products toward exchange-deliverable Class I nickel. Indonesia has already become the world’s dominant nickel processing hub, but exchange approval gives its refined metal greater financial-market recognition.

SHFE Indonesian nickel cathode brands also reinforce the role of Chinese-backed industrial parks in building Indonesia’s downstream nickel value chain. Both approved producers are linked to major Chinese groups with strong positions in stainless steel or battery materials.

The development matters because exchange-deliverable nickel sits at the intersection of physical supply, futures market liquidity and industrial procurement. Approval by SHFE gives the brands wider acceptance among Chinese market participants and strengthens Indonesia’s role in Class I nickel trade.

Tsingshan and CNGR Extend Indonesia’s Refined Nickel Platform

Eternal Nickel Industry’s PTENICO brand was approved by SHFE after previously being listed on the London Metal Exchange on 16 December 2025. The company is a subsidiary of Chinese stainless steel producer Tsingshan Holding Group.

The plant is located in the Weda Bay Industrial Park in Halmahera, North Maluku. It uses an electrolytic process and has 50,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity, with nickel content of 99.96%.

Tsingshan’s involvement is strategically important. The group transformed global nickel markets through Indonesian nickel pig iron and stainless steel expansion, and it is now extending that influence into refined Class I nickel.

CNGR Dingxing New Energy’s DX zwdx brand was also approved by SHFE. The plant is located at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park and also uses an electrolytic process. It has 50,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity, with nickel content of 99.96%.

CNGR Dingxing is a subsidiary of CNGR, a major Chinese lithium-ion battery cathode active material precursor producer. This gives the brand a direct connection to battery materials supply chains, not only stainless steel demand.

The LME accepted CNGR Dingxing’s Indonesian nickel cathode brand in May 2024. It also approved cobalt cathode produced by CNGR in Qinzhou, Guangxi, in March, showing the company’s expanding exchange-approved metals footprint.

Together, PTENICO and DX zwdx represent 100,000 t/yr of Indonesian nickel cathode capacity. Their SHFE approval gives Indonesia a stronger position in futures-linked refined nickel supply.

Exchange Approval Changes Nickel Market Positioning

The two brands are the first Indonesian-produced nickel cathodes approved by SHFE for delivery. That is significant because Indonesia’s nickel rise was initially built around ore, nickel pig iron, ferronickel, matte and mixed hydroxide precipitate.

Exchange-deliverable cathode is a different market category. It requires tighter quality control, brand recognition and acceptance by financial and physical market users.

SHFE has approved Chinese-produced nickel cathode brands totalling 121,000 t since 2024. Adding Indonesian brands expands the pool of deliverable material and shows how Indonesia is being integrated into China’s nickel pricing and delivery system.

This could gradually influence nickel market structure. More deliverable Indonesian metal may improve flexibility for Chinese buyers, increase acceptable supply for futures settlement and strengthen the link between Indonesian production and Chinese exchange pricing.

The approvals also come during a period of Class I nickel oversupply. LME and SHFE inventories have risen as new refined nickel capacity has entered the market faster than demand growth from batteries and alloys.

Against that backdrop, brand approval can become a competitive advantage. Producers with exchange-deliverable status may have better access to financing, trade channels and customers that require recognised specifications.

For Indonesia, the approval supports a broader industrial policy objective. The country wants to capture more value from its nickel resources by moving beyond raw ore and intermediate exports into higher-value metal and battery materials.

For China, the approvals deepen supply-chain integration with Indonesian assets. Chinese companies are not only investing in Indonesian mines and smelters; they are building exchange-recognised refined metal capacity that can serve Chinese industrial and financial markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SHFE approval of Indonesian nickel cathode brands confirms that Indonesia is moving deeper into Class I nickel, not only bulk stainless and battery intermediates. The strategic issue now is whether this new exchange-deliverable capacity strengthens market liquidity or adds further pressure to an already oversupplied refined nickel market.

Hanrui Indonesian Nickel Smelter Nears Completion With Hot Commissioning Start

Hanrui Indonesian

Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter development has moved into hot commissioning, signalling that Nanjing Hanrui’s delayed nickel matte project in Central Sulawesi is nearing completion. The Chinese cobalt producer launched the commissioning phase on 10 April at the Huabao Industrial Park in Morowali.

The Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter is designed to produce 20,000 t/yr of nickel matte on a nickel metal equivalent basis. The project will use oxygen-enriched continuous blowing technology to convert nickel feedstock into matte for downstream processing.

Hanrui Indonesian nickel smelter progress matters because Indonesia remains the centre of global nickel capacity growth. New matte projects help connect Indonesian nickel resources with battery materials supply chains, especially where producers need feedstock for nickel sulphate and other battery-grade products.

Hot Commissioning Marks Final Step Before Commercial Output

Hot commissioning means production lines are being tested under operating conditions before full commercial production begins. This stage is important because it tests equipment integration, process stability, safety systems and product quality.

Hanrui had originally planned to start production in May 2025, but later deferred the schedule to March 2026. The start of hot commissioning now suggests the company is moving closer to operational readiness after earlier delays.

The project’s location in Morowali gives Hanrui access to one of Indonesia’s most important nickel industrial clusters. Morowali has become a major processing centre for Chinese-backed nickel investments, supported by integrated infrastructure, smelting capacity and downstream materials ambitions.

Chinese Producers Expand Nickel Matte Capacity in Indonesia

Hanrui’s project forms part of a broader Chinese investment wave in Indonesian nickel processing. Chinese companies are building matte, mixed hydroxide precipitate, ferronickel and other nickel products to serve both stainless steel and battery markets.

Huayou has also started construction of its Huaxing nickel matte project at the Indonesia Pomalaa Industry Park. That project is planned for 40,000 t/yr of nickel matte on a nickel metal equivalent basis, although Huayou has not disclosed its construction timeline or start-up date.

The expansion of nickel matte capacity gives Chinese producers more flexibility in feedstock flows. It also strengthens Indonesia’s position as a processing base, not only an ore supplier.

However, new capacity still faces execution risks. Power supply, sulphur availability, environmental controls, commissioning performance and market prices will determine how quickly these projects move from nameplate capacity to stable commercial production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hanrui’s hot commissioning shows that Indonesia’s nickel buildout continues despite delays and market uncertainty. The strategic issue is whether new matte capacity can ramp smoothly enough to support battery supply chains without adding further pressure to an already competitive nickel market.

Indonesian Nickel Ore Prices Surge Amid Tight Supply

Indonesian Nickel

Weather Disruptions and Mine Closures Drive Market Shift

Indonesian nickel ore prices have risen sharply in 2025 as domestic supply constraints tighten. Prices for 1.6pc nickel content ore with 35pc moisture reached $53/wet metric tonne (wmt) in May, up from $44/wmt in January, driven by stronger premiums. The surge is linked to extended heavy rains on Sulawesi Island since November 2024, which disrupted operations in key hubs such as the Morowali Industrial Park. Sulawesi holds about 70pc of Indonesia’s total nickel ore resources.

The government’s order for state-owned PT Aneka Tambang (Antam) to halt mining in West Papua’s Raja Ampat — a marine protected area — further tightened supply. The site, with a 3mn wmt/yr quota, produces high-grade nickel ore. Limited availability has shifted mining firms toward tender-based sales rather than bilateral deals, while large buyers offer $1–2/wmt premiums to secure volumes over 100,000wmt.

Upstream-Downstream Price Divergence

Despite the rise in nickel ore prices, downstream products have seen declines. China’s stainless steel 304 cold-rolled coil prices fell to 13,250 yuan/t in May from 13,650 yuan/t in March. Indonesia’s nickel pig iron (NPI) export prices dropped to $116/metric tonne unit (mtu) in June from $124.50/mtu in March. This divergence stems from the upstream market remaining a seller’s market since 2023, as ore supply growth lags behind expanding nickel products capacity.

Indonesia’s nickel products output — including NPI, ferronickel, mixed hydroxide precipitate, and matte — is projected to rise to 2.49mn t in nickel metal equivalent in 2025, up from 1.83mn t in 2023. Consequently, ore demand could increase from 200mn wmt to 280mn wmt in the same period.

Rising Imports from the Philippines

With local ore insufficient, Indonesian producers have increased nickel ore imports from the Philippines since mid-2023. Imports surged to nearly 10mn t in 2024, representing around 6pc of total demand, and are on track for another increase in 2025. Shipments in January–April already exceeded imports in the first half of 2024.

Philippine ore is essential for blending with Indonesian ore to achieve the required silicon and magnesium ratios for different processing technologies, including RKEF and HPAL. Changing ore specifications after 15 years of intense mining in Indonesia have made such blending critical to meet production needs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s nickel ore market illustrates how environmental conditions and policy decisions can shift global supply chains. As upstream prices climb despite downstream weakness, reliance on Philippine imports will likely deepen, reshaping trade flows and influencing pricing power in the nickel sector.

Indonesia NPI Export Exemption Eases Nickel Trade Fears but Leaves Policy Risk

Nickel pig iron

Indonesia NPI export exemption has eased immediate concerns in the nickel market after sources said nickel pig iron will not need to be exported through Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia. The clarification reduces near-term disruption risk for Indonesia’s dominant nickel alloy product.

Indonesia NPI export exemption matters because more than 90% of Indonesia’s nickel-alloy output is nickel pig iron. NPI is mainly used in stainless steel production and forms the backbone of Indonesia’s nickel downstreaming model.

Indonesia NPI export exemption does not remove all uncertainty. Ferro-nickel exports are still expected to be traded through DSI, while the industry lacks an official definition that clearly separates ferro-nickel from NPI.

That ambiguity is important because ferro-nickel and NPI share the same HS code under global and Indonesian trade frameworks. Market participants usually distinguish them by nickel content, with ferro-nickel typically above 20% nickel and NPI usually around 10-14%.

NPI Exclusion Protects Indonesia’s Core Nickel Flow

The exclusion of NPI from the DSI export requirement is commercially significant. NPI is Indonesia’s largest nickel product by volume and a critical feedstock for stainless steelmakers.

If NPI had been included, the rule could have disrupted contracts, pricing, payment flows and export execution across a major share of Indonesia’s nickel industry. That risk has now been reduced, at least for the near term.

The clarification also helps Chinese and regional stainless steel buyers. These customers rely heavily on Indonesian NPI because it offers a cost-effective alternative to pure nickel metal in stainless production.

However, the inclusion of ferro-nickel still matters. A small number of Indonesian smelters produce higher-nickel ferro-nickel, and those exports may now face a more centralised transaction structure through DSI.

The policy could therefore split Indonesia’s nickel alloy market into two regulatory paths. NPI would remain outside the new state export channel, while ferro-nickel would fall under tighter government control.

The risk is classification. Without a formal technical definition, exporters may face uncertainty over which products qualify as NPI and which are treated as ferro-nickel.

Policy Clarity Still Matters for Investment

Indonesia announced on 20 May that exports of key commodities, initially including palm oil, coal and ferro-alloys, must be routed through DSI. The aim is to centralise control over strategic commodity exports.

The nickel industry welcomed the NPI clarification, but investors remain cautious. Indonesia’s mining and metals policy has changed frequently, creating uncertainty around timing, scope and implementation.

This matters because downstream nickel projects require large capital commitments. Smelters, matte converters, HPAL plants and battery-material facilities all need stable rules before investors can justify long payback periods.

The DSI rule follows other policy shifts, including changes to ore pricing, royalty plans, export levies and RKAB approval processes. Even when policies support state revenue and downstreaming, sudden changes can raise financing risk.

Indonesia still holds enormous leverage in global nickel. Its dominance in NPI and stainless-linked supply gives Jakarta significant influence over trade flows and pricing.

But policy predictability is now becoming just as important as resource control. If rules change too quickly or remain unclear, investors may delay decisions even when Indonesia remains the strongest nickel platform.

The NPI exemption is therefore a useful correction. But the market still needs formal definitions, clear transaction rules and stable implementation before confidence fully returns.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia has reduced immediate nickel disruption by excluding NPI from the DSI export channel. But the ferro-nickel ambiguity shows that policy risk remains embedded in the country’s downstreaming model.

Indonesia Nickel Export Tax Delay Keeps Ore Pricing Uncertainty in Focus

Indonesia Nickel Factory

Indonesia nickel export tax implementation was postponed from its original 1 April start date as authorities continued to finalise the technical formula and applicable rates. The delay kept uncertainty high across the nickel ore and stainless steel supply chain.

Indonesia nickel export tax discussions now centre on how changes to the Harga Patokan Mineral pricing system will be calculated. Market participants are watching which reference prices and contained elements will be used in the revised ore pricing formula.

Indonesia nickel export tax uncertainty has already affected buying behaviour. With stainless steel demand broadly stable, some buyers have adopted a wait-and-see approach because future import costs could rise once the tax structure is confirmed.

HPM Formula Review Could Broaden Nickel Ore Valuation

The key issue is whether Indonesia will expand the HPM formula beyond nickel content. Cobalt content in nickel ore is considered one of the most likely additions, while iron and chromium are also being discussed.

This would mark a meaningful change from the previous pricing approach. The Harga Mineral Acuan has largely used London Metal Exchange nickel prices as the main benchmark, but cobalt, iron and chromium create a more complex valuation problem.

The challenge is that not all of these elements have clear futures-based reference prices. Authorities therefore need to decide which benchmarks, market data or calculation methods should apply before the export tax can be implemented.

Export Tax Delay Still Leaves Cost Pressure on Buyers

Market participants expect the nickel export tax to follow a structure similar to Indonesia’s coal export levy. Potential rates could be set at 5%, 8% and 11%, depending on price levels.

However, it remains unclear which nickel products would ultimately fall under the tax. This lack of clarity matters because Indonesia’s nickel supply chain covers ore, intermediate products, stainless-related materials and battery-linked products.

The delay gives buyers short-term relief, but it does not remove the policy risk. Once implemented, the export tax could raise nickel import costs, affect procurement strategies and change the economics of ore supply into regional processing and stainless steel markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s nickel export tax delay shows how difficult it is to tax mineral value when ore chemistry becomes more complex. The inclusion of cobalt, iron or chromium could make the policy more sophisticated, but it also increases pricing uncertainty for buyers and processors.

Merdeka Nickel Ore Production Hits Target as Downstream Expansion Gains Pace

Merdeka Battery Materials

Merdeka nickel ore production reached its 2025 target as stronger mining capacity and better weather lifted output at Sulawesi Cahaya Mineral. MBMA produced 7mn wet metric tonnes of saprolite and 14.7mn wet metric tonnes of limonite during the year. Both results rose sharply from 2024. As a result, Merdeka nickel ore production now shows that upstream growth is still supporting Indonesia’s broader nickel strategy.

The scale of the increase matters because ore supply remains the foundation of Indonesia nickel downstream expansion. Saprolite output rose 42pc year on year, while limonite output increased 45pc. The company met its saprolite target and exceeded its limonite target. Therefore, Merdeka nickel ore production is giving the group a stronger base for its processing chain.

This performance also highlights the importance of operating conditions in Indonesian mining. MBMA said optimized mining activity and lower rainfall disruption supported the result. That means the production gain did not come from capacity alone. Consequently, Merdeka nickel ore production reflects both better execution and more favorable site conditions.

Indonesia Nickel Downstream Expansion Still Shows Uneven Product Performance

Indonesia nickel downstream expansion remains the central strategic story for MBMA, but 2025 results showed a mixed product picture. The company’s downstream portfolio includes NPI, high-grade nickel matte, and mixed hydroxide precipitate. Each product line moved differently over the year. As a result, MBMA nickel output was not uniformly strong across the chain.

NPI production fell 10pc to 73,871t in nickel metal equivalent because of maintenance at the RKEF smelters. Even so, the result still landed inside the company’s guidance range. That suggests NPI operations remained resilient despite maintenance pressure. Meanwhile, high-grade nickel matte output fell much more sharply, dropping 60pc to 19,998t in nickel metal equivalent.

That matte weakness reflected a deliberate operating shift. MBMA halted HGNM production in the first quarter of 2025 and only restarted output in October after securing a new contract. Therefore, the lower HGNM result was not simply an operational failure. It also reflected a commercial reset inside the product mix.

HPAL Nickel Growth Is Becoming More Important for MBMA’s Next Phase

HPAL nickel growth is now becoming the most important part of MBMA’s medium-term outlook. The PT ESG HPAL plant, operated with Green Eco-Manufacture, produced 25,994t of nickel in MHP in 2025. That gives the company a stronger foothold in battery-linked nickel chemicals. Consequently, Indonesia nickel downstream expansion is moving deeper into higher-value processing.

The next growth driver is already under construction. The Sulawesi Nickel Cobalt HPAL project is expected to start commissioning in the second half of this year. With capacity of 90,000 t/yr of nickel in MHP, the project could materially change MBMA’s downstream profile. Therefore, HPAL nickel growth may become the main reason investors watch MBMA more closely in 2026.

The company’s new guidance supports that view. MBMA raised its 2026 ore production targets for both saprolite and limonite, while also lifting its HGNM target sharply. MHP output from PT ESG is also expected to rise. As a result, Merdeka nickel ore production is no longer just an upstream success story. It is increasingly the feed base for a much broader downstream buildout.

The Metalnomist Commentary

MBMA’s 2025 result shows that Indonesia’s nickel model still depends on strong ore delivery before downstream value can scale. The real takeaway is not just that ore targets were met. It is that HPAL and chemical capacity are becoming more central to the company’s future than traditional nickel products alone.

Centaurus Glencore Nickel Offtake Strengthens Jaguar Project Financing Path

Centaurus Glencore

Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake has given the Jaguar nickel project a stronger commercial base as Centaurus Metals moves toward financing and development in Brazil. The binding agreement secures a major customer for future high-grade nickel concentrate and supports the company’s plan to reach a final investment decision.

Glencore will purchase 20,000 dry metric tonnes per year of 32% nickel concentrate from Jaguar for an initial five-year period starting in 2029. The volume is equivalent to about 6,400 tonnes per year of contained nickel.

The concentrate will be shipped to Glencore’s Sudbury smelting operations in Canada for processing. This gives the Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake clear downstream integration and links Brazilian mine development with established North American nickel smelting capacity.

Jaguar Nickel Project Gains Commercial Validation

The Jaguar nickel project is expected to produce 65,000 tonnes per year of nickel concentrate, meaning the Glencore contract covers roughly one-third of planned output. This contracted volume improves project bankability because lenders often require visible offtake before supporting mine development.

Pricing will be linked to the London Metal Exchange nickel cash settlement price. Nickel payability will vary with market conditions, while copper and cobalt by-products contained in the concentrate will also receive payability.

At current nickel prices of around $17,200 per tonne, the agreement could generate more than $450 million in revenue during the initial contract period. That revenue visibility matters as Centaurus works with Brazil’s national development bank on potential debt financing and seeks a strategic investor.

The agreement remains conditional on key development milestones. Centaurus must make a final investment decision by 30 September 2026, complete half of tailings dam construction by December 2027, and achieve first concentrate production by 15 January 2029.

Nickel Market Recovery Supports New Sulphide Supply

The Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake comes as nickel markets show signs of tightening after several years of weak pricing. Rapid growth from Indonesian laterite supply pressured global prices, but recent gains above $17,000 per tonne suggest the market may be moving closer to balance.

Jaguar’s sulphide concentrate profile gives the project strategic relevance. High-grade concentrate can feed conventional smelting routes and may become more valuable if buyers seek diversified nickel units outside the dominant Indonesian laterite chain.

Centaurus expects Jaguar to produce an average of 22,600 tonnes per year of contained nickel during its first seven years. The proposed 3.5 million tonne per year operation is forecast to produce nickel at all-in sustaining costs of about $9,764 per tonne.

The project also carries industrial history. Centaurus acquired Jaguar in 2019 after it was previously owned by Vale, giving the company a known Brazilian nickel asset at a time when battery, stainless steel, and alloy supply chains remain focused on secure feedstock.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake shows that disciplined sulphide nickel projects can still attract strategic buyers despite years of weak nickel prices. If the market keeps tightening, high-grade concentrate with smelter-ready characteristics could regain importance in global nickel supply chains.

Sumitomo Metal Mining to Build Japan’s First Nickel Matte Plant

Sumitomo Metal Mining

Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM), Japan’s leading metals producer, has announced plans to construct a 24,000 t/yr nickel matte plant in Miyazaki prefecture. The facility, to be built at SMM’s subsidiary Hyuga Smelting, marks a significant step in Japan's efforts to secure a domestic supply of critical battery materials. Construction is set to begin in 2025, with commercial operations expected between April 2027 and March 2028.

Nickel Matte: A Critical Link in Battery Material Supply

Nickel matte, a key intermediate product derived from ferronickel, is crucial for producing electrolytic nickel and battery-grade nickel sulphate, both essential for the growing lithium-ion battery sector.

Until now, SMM has relied on imports from its overseas subsidiaries for nickel matte. The new facility will enable the company to source this material domestically from Hyuga Smelting, reducing supply chain risks and enhancing Japan's resource independence.

The project has also garnered strong government support. On December 13, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (Meti) certified the initiative under its strategic plan to ensure a stable supply of critical metals for battery production. Meti will subsidize the project with ¥13.2 billion ($85 million), covering nearly half of SMM’s total investment of ¥28 billion.

SMM’s Vision for Nickel Production

The nickel matte plant aligns with SMM’s broader strategy to boost its production capacity for nickel products, including electrolytic nickel and nickel sulphate. The company aims to achieve a total annual output of 150,000 t of nickel products by 2030, further solidifying its role in the global battery materials supply chain.

Strategic Implications

As global demand for electric vehicles (EVs) surges, securing domestic production of key battery materials has become critical for nations worldwide. By building its first nickel matte facility, SMM is positioning Japan as a competitive player in the high-stakes race for battery-grade metals. This move also underscores the increasing importance of nickel in achieving sustainable energy goals and advancing EV technology.

Eternal Nickel LME listing reshapes Indonesian nickel trade

Eternal Nickel

The Eternal Nickel LME listing marks a new phase for Indonesian nickel as PTENICO cathodes move toward global benchmark status and add fresh liquidity to a market already facing surplus pressure. Eternal Nickel, a subsidiary of China’s Tsingshan Group, has applied for the Eternal Nickel LME listing with full-plate nickel cathodes produced at Weda Bay in North Maluku, where nameplate capacity reaches 50,000 t/yr. As a result, the Eternal Nickel LME listing would cement Indonesia’s role in refined nickel, not just intermediate products, while also deepening the pool of deliverable brands for price discovery on the London Metal Exchange.

Eternal Nickel LME listing adds to Asian LME nickel capacity

The proposed Eternal Nickel LME listing comes only months after the first Indonesian brand, DX-zwdx, secured LME approval in 2024, lifting new Asian registered capacity to 232,600 t since mid-2023. PTENICO cathodes would be the second Indonesian nickel brand listed, reinforcing the rapid shift of refined nickel capacity toward Indonesia as high-pressure acid leach and conversion projects mature. Meanwhile, surplus nickel has been flowing into LME warehouses because many producers find LME delivery the most efficient route to immediate liquidity. LME nickel stocks climbed to 224,700 t in September from 162,336 t in January, with Chinese-origin material surging to 152,454 t from 81,564 t. Therefore, any additional Indonesian cathode tonnage registered on the LME is likely to weigh further on prices, even if it improves tradability and hedging options for consumers.

Surplus stocks pressure prices as more Indonesian cathodes line up

The Eternal Nickel LME listing would arrive in a market where the official three-month LME nickel price has stayed rangebound around $15,000–16,000/t, averaging just $15,432/t in 2024. However, producers continue to commission new cathode capacity and are actively preparing LME applications, treating warehouses as an outlet for surplus production rather than cutting supply. Indonesian producer Nickel Industries Limited plans to add nickel cathode output, while major producer QMB is upgrading its technology to produce LME-grade cathodes, both from plants in Central Sulawesi. As these projects advance, more Indonesian cathode brands are expected to seek registration, reinforcing the structural oversupply narrative and keeping spot prices under pressure, even as stainless steel and battery sectors look for cost advantages.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Eternal Nickel LME listing underlines how Indonesia is moving rapidly up the nickel value chain from ore and intermediates to globally deliverable cathode brands. For traders and hedgers, more Indonesian brands enhance liquidity and flexibility, but they also lock in a heavier overhang of exchange stocks that can cap rallies. Strategically, the trend raises important questions for non-Indonesian producers: competing on cost alone against the Weda Bay and Sulawesi hubs will be tough, making product differentiation, specialty alloys and long-term customer partnerships more critical than ever.

Antam Nickel Ore Output Surges as Indonesia’s Domestic Demand Drives Growth

Antam Nickel

Antam nickel ore output surged in 2025 to its highest level in more than a decade. The state-controlled miner produced 16.1mn wet metric tonnes of nickel ore. That was up 62pc from the previous year. As a result, Antam nickel ore output now reflects the strength of Indonesian domestic nickel demand.

The company’s sales performance was even stronger. Nickel ore sales rose 75pc year on year to 14.6mn wet metric tonnes. This shows that domestic downstream buyers absorbed much of the additional supply. Therefore, Indonesia nickel ore production continues to benefit from the country’s internal processing expansion.

This matters because Antam’s ore supports more than one value chain. Its nickel ore feeds domestic class two nickel production and the company’s own ferronickel operations at Kolaka. Consequently, Antam nickel ore output remains important to both external downstream users and its internal processing strategy.

Indonesian Domestic Nickel Demand Is Reshaping Antam’s Business Mix

Indonesian domestic nickel demand is clearly driving Antam’s ore growth. The company’s production surge shows how strongly local processors continue to pull feedstock into the domestic market. This supports Indonesia’s long-term policy of deeper downstream integration. As a result, ore production is becoming more strategically valuable than before.

However, Antam’s ferronickel business moved in the opposite direction. Ferronickel output fell 20pc to 16,064t in nickel metal equivalent. Sales almost halved to 10,528t in nickel over the same period. Therefore, Antam is seeing a widening gap between ore strength and ferronickel weakness.

The company said rule changes in minimum sales pricing largely caused that decline. That means the problem was not simply demand destruction. Instead, market rules affected the economics of ferronickel sales more directly. Meanwhile, all ferronickel sales were exported, mainly to South Korea, India, and China.

Antam Battery Ecosystem Project Adds a New Strategic Layer

The Antam battery ecosystem project gives the company a stronger long-term growth story. Its joint venture with CATL began construction in the fourth quarter of 2025. That project aligns with Indonesia’s ambition to build a full downstream EV battery chain. Consequently, Antam is linking ore production more directly to higher-value battery materials.

This development matters because it expands Antam’s role beyond mining and traditional nickel products. The company is now tied more closely to Indonesia’s battery industrialization strategy. That could improve its strategic relevance even if ferronickel remains under pressure. Therefore, the Antam battery ecosystem project may become more important than short-term alloy sales.

The broader message is clear. Antam nickel ore output is rising because Indonesia’s downstream nickel model still demands more feedstock. At the same time, product mix and pricing rules are shifting value across the chain. As a result, Antam’s future may depend more on ore and battery exposure than on ferronickel alone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Antam’s results show how Indonesia’s nickel strategy is rewarding upstream ore suppliers tied to domestic processing. The weakness in ferronickel also shows that not every downstream segment benefits equally. If the battery ecosystem expands as planned, Antam could become even more central to Indonesia’s next nickel phase.

Nickel Industries Acquires 51% Stake in Indonesian Nickel-Cobalt Project

Nickel Industries

Australian-based Nickel Industries has officially acquired a 51% stake in the Siduarsi nickel-cobalt project located in West Papua, Indonesia, as announced on Monday. This acquisition is part of a larger agreement made in September 2021 with Iriana Mutiara Mining, which grants Nickel Industries the opportunity to eventually own 100% of the project, contingent upon certain conditions being met.

Further Investment Potential in Siduarsi Project

Nickel Industries has the potential to expand its stake to 82.5% pending the approval of a feasibility study by the Indonesian Mines Department. The Siduarsi deposit covers 16,470 hectares and is estimated to hold 52 million dry metric tonnes of mineral resources, with nickel concentrations at 1.1% and cobalt at 0.1%.

Initial testing has confirmed that the deposit’s limonite and saprolite ores are suitable for high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) and rotary kiln electric furnace (RKEF) operations. According to Nickel Industries managing director Justin Werner, the primary focus will be on shipping limonite ore directly to the Weda Bay Industrial Park, though the potential for HPAL processing offers opportunities for producing higher-value products like mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), nickel sulphate, and nickel cathode.

Nickel Industries already has significant interests in Indonesia, including an 80% stake in four nickel projects and a stake in two HPAL projects, producing a variety of nickel products, including NPI, matte, MHP, and nickel sulphate.

Nornickel Nickel Output Holds Flat as Copper and PGM Production Decline

Nornickel

Nornickel nickel output was broadly stable in the first quarter, while the Russian multi-metals producer reported lower copper and platinum group metal production from a high year-earlier base. Consolidated nickel production edged up by 0.3% on the year to 41,746t in January-March.

Nornickel nickel output stability contrasts with weaker copper, palladium and platinum volumes. Copper output fell by 10% to 98,679t, palladium production dropped by 18% to 608,000oz, and platinum output declined by 24% to 136,000oz.

Nornickel said the lower copper and PGM figures reflected a high production base in the first quarter of 2025 and the redistribution of commercial product volumes between quarters. The company maintained its full-year 2026 production guidance.

The result shows that Nornickel nickel output remains comparatively steady, while quarterly copper and PGM figures can move sharply because of timing, ore processing patterns and product shipment schedules.

Nickel Stability Supports Core Production Outlook

Nickel remains one of Nornickel’s most important products because of its role in stainless steel, high-performance alloys, batteries and industrial manufacturing. Stable first-quarter output suggests that the company’s core nickel operations remain within its planned production range.

Nornickel kept its 2026 Russian feedstock guidance unchanged at 193,000-203,000t for nickel. This indicates that the company does not currently view the flat first-quarter result as a signal of operational weakness.

The nickel market remains sensitive to supply from Russia because Nornickel is a major producer of high-grade material. Even when global nickel markets face oversupply from Indonesian growth, Russian nickel still has strategic relevance for stainless steel, alloy and battery-linked consumers.

Copper showed a weaker quarterly result. Output from the company’s own Russian feedstock, excluding Trans-Baikal, totalled 80,000t during the period.

However, the Bystrinsky copper project in the Trans-Baikal division performed better. Copper in concentrate output rose by 6% on the year to 18,545t, supported by higher ore processing volumes and higher metal content in ore.

This improvement at Bystrinsky partly offsets the wider copper decline. It also shows the importance of ore grade and processing throughput in quarterly copper performance.

Nornickel maintained its 2026 Russian feedstock copper guidance at 336,000-356,000t. Guidance for Trans-Baikal copper in concentrate also remained unchanged at 69,000-73,000t.

PGM Decline Reflects Timing Rather Than Guidance Change

Nornickel’s platinum group metals output fell sharply in the first quarter, but the company did not adjust its full-year forecast. Palladium output fell by 18%, while platinum declined by 24%.

The company attributed the weaker figures to a high comparison base and quarterly timing effects in commercial products. This suggests the decline may not translate directly into lower full-year supply.

Nornickel kept its 2026 palladium guidance at 2.415mn-2.465mn oz and platinum guidance at 616,000-636,000oz. These metals remain important for automotive catalysts, electronics, chemicals, hydrogen technologies, jewellery and industrial applications.

The PGM market remains highly concentrated, with Russia and South Africa playing major roles in primary supply. Any sustained change in Russian production can therefore influence availability, trade flows and customer procurement strategies.

For buyers, the first-quarter data point to the need to separate operational weakness from quarterly timing. Lower reported output can affect sentiment, but unchanged guidance suggests Nornickel expects production to normalise across the year.

The broader strategic issue remains Russian supply exposure. Nornickel’s metals are important to global nickel, copper and PGM supply chains, but geopolitical risk, sanctions compliance and trade route uncertainty continue to shape how buyers handle Russian-origin material.

The first-quarter result therefore carries a mixed message. Nickel output remained stable, Bystrinsky copper improved, and full-year guidance was unchanged. However, lower copper and PGM production underline the importance of monitoring quarterly timing, product flows and operating consistency.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nornickel’s first-quarter figures suggest stability in nickel but greater quarterly volatility in copper and PGMs. For global buyers, the bigger issue is not only production volume, but how Russian-origin metals move through increasingly complex trade and compliance channels.