Aluminium Deutschland issues stark warning on Germany job cuts and relocation risk

Aluminium Deutschland

Aluminium Deutschland issues stark warning as German aluminium producers face a deeper competitiveness squeeze. High power prices, weak demand, and new compliance costs are driving restructuring decisions. Aluminium Deutschland issues stark warning that more than a quarter of companies plan or have made job cuts, while 13% consider relocating production abroad.

Production decline since 2021 signals structural pressure

Production has remained well below pre-crisis levels across the sector. In Germany, output sits at roughly 76.5–87% of 2021 levels, with the sharpest drops in extruded and rolled products. Therefore, the industry views the downturn as structural, not a short cycle dip.

Semi-finished aluminium production held broadly stable year on year in the third quarter at 593,000 tonnes. January–September output reached about 1.8 million tonnes, which still trails 2021 momentum. Meanwhile, aluminium makers say weak activity in machinery and automotive demand is limiting any near-term rebound.

CBAM and energy costs raise the investment and relocation calculus

CBAM is set to raise effective landed costs for imported aluminium in Europe. The European Union imports about 70% of its aluminium, which amplifies the policy impact on downstream users. As a result, CBAM-related costs could add roughly €30–446 per tonne, depending on carbon footprint.

Executives are warning that restructuring is becoming unavoidable. Rob van Gils said companies must consider capacity reductions, relocations, and job cuts to survive. Aluminium Deutschland issues stark warning that well-paid industrial jobs are at risk without policy measures that restore investment confidence.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Germany’s aluminium value chain is colliding with a cost stack it cannot fully control. Meanwhile, CBAM will reward low-carbon metal, but it also pressures import-heavy processors. Therefore, the winning strategy will combine power cost relief, faster permitting, and verified low-carbon supply contracts.

Aluminium Deutschland warning: German aluminium industry faces job cuts and relocation risk

Aluminium Deutschland

The Aluminium Deutschland warning signals deep stress across Germany’s aluminium value chain. More than 25% of companies plan or made job cuts, the group said. Another 13% consider moving production abroad. High power prices, weak demand, and CBAM costs drive the pressure.

Production has fallen to 76.5–87% of 2021 levels. Extruded and rolled products show the sharpest declines. Meanwhile, plants face weak orders in automotive and machinery. Therefore, investment decisions keep shifting toward lower-cost regions.

Output shrinks as extruded and rolled products lag 2021

Semi-finished output stayed broadly stable year on year in the third quarter. The sector produced about 593,000 tonnes in Q3. January–September production reached about 1.8 million tonnes. However, volumes still trail 2021 levels.

Rolled-product output rose 2% year on year to 1.4 million tonnes in January–September. That output still sits 13% below the same 2021 period. Extruded output fell 1% year on year to 362,000 tonnes. That figure remains 23.5% below the same 2021 period.

CBAM and policy gaps raise costs for imports and producers

CBAM will lift costs across the European Union market. Europe imports about 70% of its aluminium, so costs can spread fast. CBAM could add €30–446 per tonne to imported aluminium, depending on carbon intensity. As a result, buyers will reassess sourcing strategies and premium structures.

Weak growth expectations keep the outlook fragile. Companies do not expect a near-term turnaround, the association said. Rob van Gils warned that capacity cuts and job losses remain likely. Therefore, the Aluminium Deutschland warning points to a competitiveness test for Europe’s core metals base.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Germany can protect German aluminium jobs by lowering industrial power costs and speeding permits. Meanwhile, producers should expand recycling and verified low-carbon billet to defend margins. Therefore, Europe needs grid investment and predictable CBAM guidance to retain capacity.

New US Tariffs Could Significantly Impact European Aluminium Scrap Exports

Aluminium Scrap

European aluminium recycling faces challenges as US tariffs on scrap imports rise.

The recent announcement of new tariffs by the United States government, particularly on aluminium scrap from Europe, is sending ripples through the European aluminium recycling industry. The sweeping tariff adjustments, which were introduced by US President Donald Trump on April 2, threaten to significantly reduce the flow of European aluminium scrap to the US. With these new measures, aluminium scrap will face a substantial tariff, making it less attractive for US buyers.

Impact of New Tariffs on Aluminium Scrap Exports

The new tariffs, set to take effect on April 9, place aluminium scrap imports from Europe under a 20% tariff, while imports from the UK will face a slightly lower 10% tariff. This comes after the previously established 25% tariff on primary aluminium imports from Europe, which was put in place last month. As a result, the cost of importing aluminium scrap from Europe will be nearly as high as that for importing primary aluminium, significantly altering the economics of aluminium recycling.

Historically, the US had been a major buyer of European aluminium scrap, with many industries using recycled aluminium as an alternative to primary aluminium. The new tariffs, however, will likely make scrap imports much less appealing to US buyers, pushing them to explore other options. This comes after previous expectations that the US would turn to aluminium scrap as a more affordable alternative to primary aluminium, which is now burdened by hefty tariffs.

Reactions from Industry Associations

Industry associations such as European Aluminium and Aluminium Deutschland have voiced concerns over the new tariffs, as they undermine the viability of aluminium scrap exports. These associations had earlier called for export restrictions on scrap due to fears that large-scale shipments of aluminium scrap could exacerbate market imbalances. With the tariffs in place, the likelihood of scrap exports to the US is expected to diminish significantly.

European Aluminium has indicated that it is closely monitoring the situation to determine its next steps regarding export restrictions. Aluminium Deutschland, however, has yet to comment on the matter.

What This Means for the Aluminium Recycling Industry

These new tariffs could lead to a shift in the global aluminium market. If European aluminium scrap becomes less competitive due to high tariffs, it may force US buyers to seek out other sources of aluminium scrap, possibly from domestic markets or alternative suppliers. Additionally, this could put pressure on European recyclers, who may face reduced demand for their products, forcing them to explore new markets or adjust their pricing strategies.

As the situation evolves, the aluminium recycling industry in Europe will need to adapt to these new challenges, either by lobbying for changes in tariff policies or by finding ways to remain competitive in an increasingly restricted global market.

Germany Aluminium Industry Decline Deepens as Energy Costs and CBAM Pressure Competitiveness

Germany Aluminium

Germany aluminium industry decline is becoming harder to reverse as production, recycling, and capacity utilization remain well below 2021 levels. Aluminium Deutschland said the sector showed no growth since 2021. Fourth-quarter output stayed only 76-88pc of 2021 levels. As a result, Germany aluminium industry decline now looks more structural than cyclical.

This matters because the sector is losing strength across several product categories at once. Rolled products rose slightly in 2025, but still remained 12pc below 2021 levels. Extruded products fell 1pc last year and stayed 24pc below 2021. Therefore, German aluminium competitiveness is weakening across both primary and semi-finished segments.

The association blames policy and cost pressure for the downturn. High energy prices, weak relief measures, and regulations such as CBAM are central concerns. The wider economy also remains soft. Consequently, Germany aluminium industry decline is being driven by both weak demand and a more difficult operating environment.

German Aluminium Competitiveness Is Under Pressure From Energy and Policy

German aluminium competitiveness is under direct pressure from high power costs and ineffective industrial support. Aluminium Deutschland said current policy frameworks no longer support recovery. It also warned that traditional policy thinking is failing domestic industry. As a result, the sector sees competitiveness risk as a core threat, not a temporary obstacle.

CBAM impact on aluminium is also becoming more controversial inside the industry. The association argues that CBAM may add burdens instead of meaningful protection. That concern is especially serious in a sector already facing cost disadvantages. Therefore, German aluminium competitiveness may weaken further if policy tools fail to deliver real relief.

This issue matters because aluminium is deeply tied to industrial employment and manufacturing resilience. If producers continue losing ground, Germany may become more dependent on imported metal and products. Meanwhile, the country could lose more industrial capacity in areas that support broader supply chains.

Aluminium Recycling in Germany Also Shows Industrial Weakness

Aluminium recycling in Germany is also moving in the wrong direction. German companies produced 2.7mn t of recycled aluminium in 2025. That was down 1pc on the year and 16pc below 2021 levels. As a result, the decline is not limited to primary production or semi-finished products.

Weak downstream demand is a major reason. Automotive, construction, and plant engineering all remained soft. Tight scrap availability and high scrap prices also hurt recycling economics. Therefore, aluminium recycling in Germany now reflects both industrial slowdown and raw material stress.

This matters because recycling should be one of Europe’s stronger advantages in aluminium. When recycling weakens alongside broader production, it signals a much deeper industrial problem. Consequently, Germany aluminium industry decline now extends across the full value chain rather than one isolated segment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Germany’s aluminium sector is no longer describing a normal downturn. It is describing a competitiveness crisis. If energy costs, policy burdens, and weak demand continue together, Germany risks losing more than output. It risks losing strategic industrial capability.

Germany Pushes EU to Impose Aluminium Scrap Export Tariffs

Aluminum Scrap

Rising US demand sparks supply concerns and threatens Europe’s circular economy framework

Aluminium Deutschland Warns of Scrap Outflow Risk

Germany's aluminium industry group, Aluminium Deutschland, has urged the EU to impose aluminium scrap export tariffs. This demand follows the United States’ decision to implement a 25% tariff on primary aluminium imports, while keeping aluminium scrap exempt from the tariff.

As a result, US buyers are likely to switch from importing primary aluminium to sourcing cheaper scrap — particularly from Europe. This shift could lead to a serious shortage of scrap for European recyclers, who rely on stable domestic supply for their operations.

US-EU Price Gap Accelerates Market Arbitrage

The arbitrage between US and EU aluminium prices has widened sharply in recent months. According to market data, the premium gap surged from $110/t in November to nearly $700/t in early May 2025. This creates a strong incentive for exporters to redirect scrap to the US market, further tightening EU supply.

Aluminium Deutschland emphasized that this trend could undermine Europe’s recycling industry. President Rob van Gils called for “swift and decisive action” to avoid dismantling years of progress in circular economy infrastructure.

Europe Faces Growing Scrap Scarcity

Europe's aluminium scrap supply is already strained. Sluggish industrial activity has lowered fresh scrap generation, while Asian demand remains strong, forcing EU recyclers to compete globally. If the EU does not act, companies could face escalating shortages, threatening decarbonisation goals and raw materials security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Germany’s call for aluminium scrap export tariffs reflects a growing geopolitical competition over raw materials. As secondary aluminium becomes a substitute for tariffed primary metal, the EU risks losing strategic feedstock to global arbitrage. Scrap policy will increasingly define the success or failure of Europe’s industrial climate goals.

 

German Aluminium Output Rises Slightly, but Industry Urges Policy Support

German Aluminium Industry

Weak Demand and High Energy Prices Threaten Recovery

German aluminium output rises slightly in Q1 2025, marking the first production uptick after nearly three years of decline. According to industry association Aluminium Deutschland, recycled aluminium production increased 3% year-on-year to 703,000 tonnes, while semi-finished products edged up 1% to 576,000 tonnes. However, this growth appears fragile, with no underlying increase in demand and restocking cited as the main driver.

Rolled aluminium product output rose 2% to 456,000 tonnes, while extruded products fell 2% to 121,000 tonnes. This divergence indicates ongoing weakness in value-added segments. In 2024, Germany's aluminium sector had posted a 2% drop in recycled aluminium and a 3% decline in semi-finished products, underscoring the prolonged pressure on producers. Therefore, although German aluminium output rises slightly, the sector remains far from full recovery.

Aluminium Deutschland president Rob van Gils warned that the rebound is not demand-driven and emphasized the need for lower energy prices and clear investment frameworks. The call comes as Germany transitions to a new coalition government following political instability earlier this year. Without structural policy support, Germany risks entering 2025 as a stagnant industrial economy. The aluminium sector is demanding urgent reforms to avoid becoming Europe’s next manufacturing casualty.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Germany’s modest aluminium output growth reflects restocking activity, not industrial recovery. Without energy price reform and investor confidence, the nation’s aluminium sector could slide further—despite its technological strength and recycling capacity.

EU aluminium scrap export restriction moves toward spring 2026 adoption

EU aluminium scrap

The European Commission launched work on an EU aluminium scrap export restriction to curb “scrap leakage.” Maroš Šefčovič said the measure should arrive in spring 2026. The EU aluminium scrap export restriction aims to secure feedstock for recyclers and downstream producers.

European industry groups have pushed for action for years. However, the pressure intensified after Donald Trump imposed tariffs on primary aluminium imports. Many buyers may shift toward more scrap to reduce duty exposure. Therefore, European exporters could see stronger pull from overseas markets.

Aluminium scrap flows already show the scale of the challenge. The European Union and the United Kingdom exported around 1.6mn tonnes of aluminium scrap in 2024. That volume rose almost 25% versus 2022 and about 60% versus 2019. As a result, policymakers now frame scrap retention as an economic security issue.

Export tariffs or quotas look more likely than a ban

The final instrument is not yet defined. Officials and industry leaders say a full ban is unlikely. However, export tariffs or quotas could deliver immediate friction on outbound scrap.

Industry executives welcomed the signal from Brussels. Hydro extrusions head Paul Warton called the move encouraging. Meanwhile, European Aluminium director-general Paul Voss described current outflows as a market failure. Therefore, the consultation phase will test where the market sees real bottlenecks.

The commission will run a public consultation and gather evidence. That process will shape how any tariffs or quotas apply. Meanwhile, Aluminium Deutschland has also argued for tools that keep scrap in Europe. As a result, the EU aluminium scrap export restriction will likely focus on volumes and verification.

Scrap retention supports low-carbon aluminium and industrial resilience

Scrap retention directly supports lower-carbon aluminium production. Recyclers typically cut energy use versus primary routes, depending on power mix. Therefore, stable scrap supply improves decarbonisation pathways for European manufacturers.

Trade measures could also reshape pricing and contracts. Scrap exporters may face lower netbacks, while domestic buyers may gain supply security. However, overly strict rules could disrupt collection incentives and cross-border trade. As a result, policymakers must balance supply security with healthy recycling economics.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe will not decarbonise aluminium without reliable scrap access at scale. Meanwhile, tariffs and quotas must avoid weakening collection and sorting investment. Therefore, the best design links any restriction to reinvestment in recycling capacity.

European Aluminium Calls for EU Scrap Export Limits

European Aluminium Scrap

Aluminium industry group urges EU action to protect regional scrap supply amid rising export demand and U.S. tariff pressure

Rising Exports and U.S. Tariffs Put Pressure on EU Scrap Supply

European Aluminium has urged the EU to implement export limits on aluminium scrap. This follows increased competition from Asian markets and new U.S. trade measures. In 2024, the EU exported 1.5mn tonnes of aluminium scrap, with over 500,000t going to India alone. Meanwhile, U.S. buyers are now expected to shift toward scrap after Washington imposed a 25% tariff on primary aluminium.

Industry Pushes for Regulation Through the WSR and Circular Economy Act

The association proposed using export fees and tightening the Waste Shipment Regulation (WSR). This 2023 revision now includes scrap metal, offering a legal pathway for restrictions. European Aluminium also called for a new Circular Economy Act to ensure long-term scrap availability and quality. Furthermore, it recommends a dedicated emissions benchmark for recyclers.

Scrap Now Central to Primary Production and Green Goals

Sustainability targets have pushed primary aluminium producers to use more scrap. Improved technologies also enable the use of lower-grade material. As a result, competition for European scrap has intensified. German trade body Aluminium Deutschland previously appealed to its government for similar EU-wide restrictions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aluminium scrap is no longer a marginal byproduct—it’s become a strategic resource. With decarbonization and tariffs converging, Europe faces a policy choice: export profits or internal supply security. The latest moves by industry groups show momentum for regulatory intervention.

European Aluminium Industry Pushes for Scrap Export Restrictions

Al scrap

Rising Pressure for Scrap Export Controls

The European aluminium scrap market is facing mounting pressure as supply tightness collides with strong export demand. Industry groups such as European Aluminium and Aluminium Deutschland have intensified lobbying for export tariffs to secure domestic scrap supply. Their push comes as the US raises tariffs on primary aluminium imports, potentially boosting American demand for European scrap.

Exports of European aluminium scrap surged in recent years, particularly to Asia. The EU and UK together shipped 1.57mn tonnes in 2024, a 23pc increase compared with 2022. India and China accounted for the bulk of these flows, while exports to the US, though smaller, grew sharply. European Aluminium warned that rising US interest, combined with current supply shortages, risks creating a “full-blown scrap crisis.”

Industry Debate and Market Risks

However, not all stakeholders agree that restrictions are the solution. Scrap merchants argue that supply shortfalls are driven more by weak industrial activity than by exports. Low production in automotive, construction, and machinery has reduced available grades like aluminium turnings, which are essential for European secondary smelters. They caution that tariffs may not address these structural issues and could trigger reciprocal trade barriers, complicating Europe’s own scrap imports.

At the same time, many producers identify high energy costs as the bigger threat to smelter viability. Merchants note that no smelter closures have been directly tied to scrap shortages, while escalating electricity prices have forced cutbacks. Despite this, calls for restrictions continue to gain traction, reflecting a broader trend of resource nationalism as countries prioritize domestic recycling over exports.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The debate over aluminium scrap export restrictions underscores a critical tension between free trade and industrial security. While tariffs may stabilize domestic availability, they risk distorting markets and inviting retaliation. The EU must weigh these risks carefully, especially as global competition for low-carbon feedstock intensifies. Energy costs, more than scrap scarcity, remain the sector’s existential challenge.

Germany Launches Green Aluminum Alliance to Drive Decarbonization

Germany Al

Germany has unveiled the German Aluminium Alliance, a coalition formed to spearhead the transition toward a competitive, climate-neutral aluminum industry. Spearheaded by the Aluminium Deutschland association, the alliance unites key players, including major trades unions IG Metall and IG BCE, and economic authorities from the federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony-Anhalt, Saarland, and Hamburg.

Building a Sustainable, Competitive Aluminum Sector

The alliance’s primary objectives include developing low-emission technologies for aluminum production, creating a climate-neutral value chain, and boosting sustainability through a circular economy. With Germany’s aluminum industry playing a critical role in decarbonization, the alliance plans to advance research funding, secure stable energy supplies, and advocate for fair global competition to prevent carbon leakage. These goals align with enhancing Germany’s industrial competitiveness while contributing to EU-wide climate targets.

Aluminium Deutschland president Rob van Gils emphasized the need for aluminum in meeting climate goals, noting that cooperation with political and social partners is essential to ensure sustainability and industry resilience.