Aluminium Deutschland warning: German aluminium industry faces job cuts and relocation risk

Aluminium Deutschland

The Aluminium Deutschland warning signals deep stress across Germany’s aluminium value chain. More than 25% of companies plan or made job cuts, the group said. Another 13% consider moving production abroad. High power prices, weak demand, and CBAM costs drive the pressure.

Production has fallen to 76.5–87% of 2021 levels. Extruded and rolled products show the sharpest declines. Meanwhile, plants face weak orders in automotive and machinery. Therefore, investment decisions keep shifting toward lower-cost regions.

Output shrinks as extruded and rolled products lag 2021

Semi-finished output stayed broadly stable year on year in the third quarter. The sector produced about 593,000 tonnes in Q3. January–September production reached about 1.8 million tonnes. However, volumes still trail 2021 levels.

Rolled-product output rose 2% year on year to 1.4 million tonnes in January–September. That output still sits 13% below the same 2021 period. Extruded output fell 1% year on year to 362,000 tonnes. That figure remains 23.5% below the same 2021 period.

CBAM and policy gaps raise costs for imports and producers

CBAM will lift costs across the European Union market. Europe imports about 70% of its aluminium, so costs can spread fast. CBAM could add €30–446 per tonne to imported aluminium, depending on carbon intensity. As a result, buyers will reassess sourcing strategies and premium structures.

Weak growth expectations keep the outlook fragile. Companies do not expect a near-term turnaround, the association said. Rob van Gils warned that capacity cuts and job losses remain likely. Therefore, the Aluminium Deutschland warning points to a competitiveness test for Europe’s core metals base.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Germany can protect German aluminium jobs by lowering industrial power costs and speeding permits. Meanwhile, producers should expand recycling and verified low-carbon billet to defend margins. Therefore, Europe needs grid investment and predictable CBAM guidance to retain capacity.