U.S. Finalizes Massive Solar Tariffs, Reshaping Southeast Asia’s Export Landscape

US solar

Commerce Department sets duties as high as 3,400% on solar products from Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia

The U.S. Department of Commerce has concluded a landmark trade investigation by imposing some of the highest anti-dumping and countervailing duties ever recorded on imported solar panels. The decision targets silicon photovoltaic cells and modules from four Southeast Asian nations: Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia.

These duties follow a year-long investigation into allegations that Chinese solar companies, previously subject to tariffs, shifted operations to Southeast Asia in an attempt to bypass U.S. trade regulations. The move is widely regarded as a turning point for the global solar supply chain, with U.S. officials and industry leaders viewing it as a necessary step to restore fair competition.

According to the final determination, some companies—particularly those that failed to comply with the Commerce Department’s requests—will now face duties exceeding 3,400%, an unprecedented figure. For example, four Cambodian firms, including Jintek and ISC, will be subject to this highest tier. In comparison, these same companies were only facing duties of 68% under the preliminary findings issued in October 2024.

On a broader scale, countrywide anti-dumping rates have also surged. Vietnam faces an average rate of 271%, Thailand 111%, and Cambodia 125%. Malaysia, while receiving the lowest general rate—just under 9%—still saw several of its companies slapped with individual duties over 80%, due to non-cooperation during the investigation.

The Commerce Department also imposed steep countervailing duties, which are used to offset the benefits companies receive from government subsidies. Cambodia again ranked highest, with a countrywide rate near 535%, while Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia saw rates of 125%, 264%, and 32%, respectively. The lowest countervailing duty—under 15%—was assigned to Hanwha Q Cells Malaysian subsidiary.

These tariffs are expected to take effect in June 2025, pending the final approval of the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC). In certain cases, particularly in Thailand and Vietnam, duties may apply retroactively if the agencies determine that "critical circumstances" exist—such as import surges meant to beat the implementation timeline.

The ruling stems from a petition filed by the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee, which includes prominent U.S. solar companies like FirstSolar, Mission Solar, and the U.S. arm of Hanwha Q Cells. The coalition argues that Chinese firms exploited a tariff moratorium enacted by President Biden in 2022 to reroute supply chains and avoid penalties, effectively distorting the market.

Tim Brightbill, legal counsel for the petitioner coalition, welcomed the decision. He emphasized that the tariffs represent a major victory for domestic manufacturers and are essential to encouraging long-term investment in the American solar industry. “These duties will go a long way toward protecting U.S. jobs and restoring a level playing field,” Brightbill said.

Industry analysts believe that the tariffs will have a ripple effect on solar deployment in the U.S., at least in the short term. Project developers who rely heavily on low-cost imported modules may face delays or cost increases. However, domestic producers see the ruling as a long overdue reset that prioritizes manufacturing resilience over low-cost imports.

As the global solar sector undergoes this structural shift, all eyes are on how China and Southeast Asian exporters will respond—and how U.S. clean energy goals will adapt to a more protected domestic market.

US Imposes Tariffs on Solar Imports from Four Asian Countries

US Solar

The U.S. Department of Commerce has imposed new duties on solar products imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The preliminary ruling, announced on Tuesday, claims that manufacturers in these countries have benefited from subsidies that allow them to undercut U.S. companies, thereby disrupting fair competition. The tariffs target crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and modules, with rates ranging from less than 1% to nearly 293%, depending on the individual companies and their responses to Commerce’s inquiries.

Tariffs Range Widely, Affecting Industry Dynamics

U.S. Customs and Border Protection will now begin collecting cash deposits from importers to match the preliminary subsidy rates. The baseline rates are set as low as 2.85% for Vietnamese imports and as high as 23.06% for those from Thailand, but individual companies could face much higher tariffs if found to be "non-responsive" to Commerce’s investigation. These duties are retroactive by 90 days, adding pressure to the affected importers.

This action stems from a petition filed by the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee, a coalition of U.S. solar companies including FirstSolar, Mission Solar Energy, and Hanwha Q Cells. The group alleged that Chinese companies have been circumventing U.S. trade law by setting up production in Southeast Asia, exporting large volumes of subsidized solar products to the U.S. under the guise of local manufacturing. This allowed these companies to avoid duties imposed by previous investigations, leading to what the coalition claims is a distortion of the U.S. market.

In 2022, President Biden temporarily paused new duties from a related investigation to mitigate disruption in the U.S. solar market. However, critics argue that this gave Chinese companies an opportunity to shift their supply chains to Southeast Asia. Tim Brightbill, lead counsel for the coalition, expects the preliminary rates to rise as Commerce gathers more data from affected companies. "We are confident that the duty rates will increase as Commerce continues to investigate newly alleged subsidies," he said.

Industry Divided on the Impact of New Tariffs

The decision has sparked a debate within the U.S. clean energy sector. While manufacturers like FirstSolar support the tariffs as a means to protect domestic industry, other trade groups, such as the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE), warn that the tariffs could hinder the country’s decarbonization efforts. ACORE CEO Ray Long emphasized the need for a balanced approach, stating, "What America's clean energy sector needs right now is a balanced trade policy that sustains the progress we're making deploying clean energy and ramping up domestic manufacturing capabilities."

Commerce is set to release a preliminary antidumping determination on November 27, which could further affect the industry landscape. Petitioners have requested that Commerce issue final determinations on both countervailing and antidumping duties simultaneously, which would potentially arrive by April 11, 2025. Without joint issuance, a separate determination on countervailing duties could come as soon as February 10, 2025.

US solar import inquiry moves forward after ITC ruling

US solar

The US solar import inquiry will continue after the ITC found reasonable indication of injury. The US solar import inquiry targets crystalline silicon PV cells from India, Indonesia, and Laos. As a result, the US solar import inquiry could trigger antidumping and countervailing duties.

Scope, countries, and claims

Petitions allege dumping and government subsidies that undercut US manufacturers. The case focuses on Chinese-owned operations in Indonesia and Laos, and firms in India. However, the inquiry covers cells, whether or not assembled into modules.

The Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade led the filings. Members include First Solar, Mission Solar Energy, and Qcells. Therefore, the coalition spans thin film and crystalline producers across several states.

Regulators will examine sales below normal value and countervailable subsidies. They will also assess whether imports distort prices and harm domestic capacity. Meanwhile, US producers argue duties are needed to halt a “race to the bottom.”

Timeline, duties, and industry impact

Commerce will issue a preliminary countervailing ruling by 13 October. It will follow with a preliminary antidumping ruling on 26 December. Final determinations will come in 2026, after additional investigations.

Potential remedies include countervailing and separate antidumping duties. These measures could raise import costs from the three countries. As a result, developers may face higher module prices and tighter supply.

US buyers have leaned on Asia to meet project timelines. However, policy shifts continue to reshape sourcing and build-out plans. Therefore, procurement strategies must hedge duty risk and tax incentive deadlines.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Trade risk is back at the center of US solar procurement. Watch preliminary rates in October and December, which will steer 2026 contract pricing. Developers should diversify suppliers and sync interconnection milestones with SMART-style or IRA timelines.

US Finalizes 45X Tax Credits to Boost Clean Energy Manufacturing

US renewable energy projects

The US Department of the Treasury and Internal Revenue Service has finalized rules for the 45X advanced manufacturing tax credit, an initiative under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The credit is designed to spur investment in domestic manufacturing for components used in wind, solar, and battery systems, reducing reliance on imports and strengthening the US clean energy supply chain.

Key Highlights of the 45X Tax Credit

• Incentives for Components:

- Solar cells: 4¢/W

- Solar modules: 7¢/W

- Photovoltaic wafers: $12/m²

- Wind turbine blades: 2¢/blade

- Battery cells: $35/kWh

• Mineral Production Tax Credit: US producers of critical minerals like aluminum, cobalt, graphite, lithium, and nickel can claim 10% of production costs.

Phased Expiry of Credits

The credits will begin phasing out after 2030:

• 75% of the original value for components sold in 2030.
• 50% for 2031.
• Expiring completely after 2033.

Impact on the Renewable Sector

The 45X credit is expected to bolster the US solar industry, which has long relied on imported photovoltaic cells and modules, primarily from China and Southeast Asia. These imports are subject to tariffs and trade investigations, creating additional hurdles for developers.

US-based companies such as First Solar, Enel, and Qcells have already announced plans to establish manufacturing facilities in the US, citing the credits as a critical driver.

A Step Towards Energy Independence

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm highlighted the broader implications of the credits:

"These final rules will help strengthen energy dominance while reducing emissions and leveling the playing field for US companies."

With solar and wind energy demand continuing to grow, the 45X tax credit represents a significant step in building a robust, domestic clean energy manufacturing ecosystem, ensuring the US remains competitive in the global energy transition.

U.S. Solar Power Hits Record Growth in 2024 Despite Policy Uncertainty

Wood Mackenzie

Utility-scale solar leads capacity surge as residential segment contracts; industry braces for regulatory headwinds in 2025.

The U.S. solar sector added nearly 50,000 MWdc of capacity in 2024, setting a new record and growing 21% year-over-year, according to a joint report by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie. Solar energy accounted for 66% of all new power generation, surpassing its previous high of 56% set in 2023.

This marks the fourth consecutive year solar has held the largest share of new U.S. generation, driven by Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives, resilient supply chains, and strong demand from utilities and corporations.

Utility-Scale Leads Surge, But Residential Slumps

Utility-scale solar led the boom, adding 41,100 MWdc—a 33% increase from 2023. However, 2025 may see a 2% contraction in this segment due to policy uncertainty.

The residential solar market declined 31% to 4,700 MWdc, hit by high financing costs and lower demand. Still, 9% growth is expected in 2025, especially in California, where market stabilization is underway.

Commercial installations rose 8% to 2,100 MWdc, fueled by projects under California’s NEM 2.0, but are expected to drop 11% in 2025. Developers face federal compliance hurdles related to wage and apprenticeship rules tied to tax credits.

Growth in Community Solar, But Headwinds Ahead

Community solar jumped 35% to nearly 1,750 MWdc, though 2025 growth could fall 15% due to interconnection issues and saturation in mature states.

While demand remains strong, looming policy risks threaten momentum. These include:

• Tariff hikes on Canadian and Mexican imports set for April 2

• A 60-day freeze on permitting for federal land projects

• A shift in federal focus toward thermal and hydro energy

Despite these risks, SEIA and Wood Mackenzie forecast a minimum of 43,000 MWdc per year through 2035, pushing cumulative capacity beyond 730,000 MWdc. However, that pace could slow by 25% if key IRA tax incentives are removed or diluted.

Bismuth Tellurium PV Demand Growth Driven by Solar Technology Expansion

Bismuth

Bismuth tellurium PV demand faces divergent growth trajectories as photovoltaic industry expansion supports bismuth consumption while trade conflicts constrain tellurium market development. The bismuth tellurium PV sector dynamics were highlighted at the 2025 China bismuth and tellurium development forum in Chenzhou, where industry experts analyzed critical materials supply chains for emerging solar technologies.

Bismuth Consumption Accelerates Through HJT Solar Battery Growth

Bismuth tellurium PV applications demonstrate strong growth potential, particularly in heterojunction (HJT) solar battery manufacturing. Global bismuth consumption reached 18,000-19,000 tonnes in 2024, with China representing approximately 40% at 6,600-6,800 tonnes according to Vital Technology Group. The HJT battery technology combines crystalline silicon advantages with thin film capabilities, requiring bismuth-based low-temperature welding materials.

Meanwhile, global HJT cell shipments surged from 4 GW in 2022 to 25 GW in 2024. Demand for low-temperature welding materials increased correspondingly from 2,000 tonnes in 2022 to 10,000 tonnes in 2024. Industry projections indicate HJT shipments will reach 80 GW in 2025, requiring 30,000 tonnes of specialized welding materials containing bismuth.

Tellurium Market Faces Trade-Related Headwinds

However, tellurium consumption encounters challenges despite growing photovoltaic industry demand. China dominates global tellurium production with 803 tonnes in 2024, representing 68% of worldwide output totaling 1,179 tonnes. The metal finds primary application in cadmium-telluride (Cd-Te) thin-film solar modules, consuming approximately 130 tonnes per gigawatt of production capacity.

Therefore, trade tensions between China and the US create uncertainty for tellurium demand growth. Major US manufacturer First Solar reduced sales guidance from 18-20 GW to 15.5-19.3 GW in April, citing trade uncertainty and higher tariffs imposed since President Trump's February inauguration. This guidance reduction directly impacts global Cd-Te consumption projections for 2025.

Building-Integrated PV Creates New Demand Channels

Furthermore, building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) applications present emerging growth opportunities for both critical minerals. China plans significant BIPV capacity expansion, potentially increasing tellurium utilization according to China Triumph representatives. Global Cd-Te thin-film solar cell output reached 16 GW in 2024, indicating 2,080 tonnes of Cd-Te demand for absorption layer applications.

As a result, bismuth benefits from diversified application portfolios including automobile glass ink (19% of consumption), pigments (13%), catalysts (8%), and pharmaceuticals (8%). This diversification provides stability compared to tellurium's concentrated dependence on solar module manufacturing, which remains vulnerable to geopolitical trade disruptions affecting major consuming markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The contrasting trajectories of bismuth and tellurium in photovoltaic applications highlight how trade policies increasingly influence critical minerals demand patterns beyond traditional supply-side considerations. While technological advancement drives fundamental growth in both materials, tellurium's concentrated exposure to US-China trade tensions demonstrates the vulnerability of specialized critical minerals to geopolitical disruptions in key end-use sectors.

Chinese PV Industry Faces Overcapacity and Profit Losses: IEA Reports

Iea(The International Energy Agency)

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a concerning report highlighting the overcapacity and declining profitability in China’s photovoltaic (PV) industry, which is the dominant force in the global solar energy supply chain. The report, presented during a webinar this Thursday, sheds light on the financial struggles faced by major Chinese manufacturers such as JA Solar Technology and LONGi Green Energy Technology, which have reported significant losses in their recent financial statements.

According to Izumi Kaizuka, an analyst at the IEA, the mood at the 17th SNEC PV conference in Shanghai this June was grim. Kaizuka quoted the founder of GCL Group, a major PV manufacturer, who expressed concern that the Chinese PV industry is "entering an ice age" due to a severe imbalance in supply and demand. The report also highlighted the bankruptcy of Zhejiang Akcome, one of China’s leading PV manufacturers, earlier this year, with the IEA predicting more closures in the near future.

China's Dominance in Global PV Production

Despite the struggles at home, China continues to dominate the global PV industry. In 2023, China accounted for more than half of the 456GW of global solar power capacity added, and nine of the top 10 PV suppliers in the first half of 2024 were Chinese-owned. The country has increased its production share across all segments of the PV supply chain, including polysilicon, crystalline silicon wafers, solar cells, and PV modules, with its share reaching 92%, 98%, 92%, and 85%, respectively, in 2023.

The rapid expansion of China’s PV capacity is evident, with the country increasing its own year-on-year solar additions by 123% from 2022 to 2023, followed by Italy (113%) and Germany (109%). However, the global demand for PV capacity is pushing countries like the EU and the US to expand their own solar production capabilities, with the EU installing over 56GW in 2023 alone.

The EU's Push for Solar Manufacturing

In response to its growing reliance on Chinese imports, the European Union (EU) has set ambitious targets to scale up domestic production of PV panels. Under the Net-Zero Industry Act, the EU aims to produce at least 40% of its annual needs for strategic net-zero technologies—including solar panels—by 2030. With current production at under 5GW annually, the EU is planning to ramp up its manufacturing capacity to 30GW per year by 2030 in order to meet its renewable energy goals.

As the global PV market faces challenges like overcapacity and supply-demand imbalances, the role of China in driving production and the EU’s efforts to boost its domestic capabilities will shape the future of the solar industry.

Updates Mining Rebate Rules: What You Need to Know

US Mining

The United States has introduced significant updates to its mining rebate rules, affecting companies in the mining and materials processing sectors. The U.S. Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) released definitive rules on Thursday regarding the Section 45X advanced manufacturing production credit, a part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022. This credit was designed to foster investment in the U.S. manufacturing of components for wind, solar, and battery systems.

Key Changes to the Mining Rebate Rules

The new regulations bring forth an important adjustment for mining companies, particularly regarding "extraction costs." Previously, under the proposed guidance issued in December, extraction was not considered part of the production costs eligible for the 10% rebate. The rationale was that the extraction process was seen as too far removed from the ultimate production of an eligible component, such as those used in wind and solar energy systems.

However, after considerable feedback from stakeholders, the Treasury Department and IRS revised their stance. The updated rules now allow mining companies to claim the rebate for their extraction costs, provided the raw materials are processed into an eligible component. For example, lithium must be refined into lithium hydroxide, which can then be used directly in the production of batteries.

While the regulators acknowledged the importance of value-added processing activities, such as refining and purifying raw materials, they also clarified that "the action of extraction alone does not produce an eligible component." This decision effectively allows certain mining activities to qualify for the credit, but it is important to note that extraction alone, without subsequent processing, does not meet the eligibility requirements.

Industry Reactions and Future Implications

The updated guidance has generated mixed reactions within the industry. On one hand, groups representing mining companies welcomed the inclusion of extraction in some capacity, recognizing the importance of the sector in the overall supply chain for clean energy technologies. On the other hand, some stakeholders, including the National Mining Association (NMA), expressed disappointment over the narrow scope of the final rules.

Rich Nolan, CEO of the National Mining Association, argued that the decision to limit the rebate to producers who also refine materials would exclude many crucial projects from benefiting from the credit. He suggested that this limitation goes against the intentions of Congress in fostering a robust domestic supply chain for critical minerals.

The Bigger Picture: Supporting Clean Energy and Domestic Manufacturing

This policy shift reflects a broader push by the U.S. government to bolster clean energy production and reduce reliance on foreign sources of critical minerals. The Section 45X advanced manufacturing production credit is an essential part of the Inflation Reduction Act, which aims to position the U.S. as a leader in the production of clean energy technologies. As the demand for minerals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt grows—critical materials for battery production—the role of domestic mining and refining becomes increasingly important.

Mining companies, however, will need to balance the rebate’s requirements with the investment needed for refining capabilities. Many smaller mining operations may struggle to meet the additional processing requirements, potentially leaving them at a disadvantage compared to larger, more established companies with the necessary infrastructure.

In conclusion, the update to the mining rebate rules marks a step forward in supporting domestic mining and clean energy initiatives but leaves room for further development. The debate over the scope of the credit is likely to continue as stakeholders assess its impact on the industry and its ability to meet the growing demand for clean energy components.

Alcoa gallium refinery funding strengthens US-Australia critical minerals pact

Alcoa

Alcoa gallium refinery funding is emerging as a flagship project in the US-Australia critical minerals alliance. The planned Western Australia gallium plant will sit beside Alcoa's Wagerup alumina refinery and target first output in 2026. As a result, Alcoa gallium refinery funding positions the company at the centre of Western efforts to rebalance gallium supply away from China.

Alcoa gallium refinery funding underpins joint US-Australia-Japan strategy

The Alcoa gallium refinery funding will support feasibility, development and construction of a 100 t/yr gallium facility at Wagerup. The US and Australian governments will provide capital and receive gallium offtake in proportion to their stakes. Therefore, public funding directly links taxpayer support to strategic volumes of a critical semiconductor material.

Meanwhile, the project will be structured as a broader joint venture with Jogmec and Sojitz, extending Japan's role in supply security. The original August announcement already positioned Sojitz as a key offtake customer for gallium output from the alumina refinery. Now, Alcoa gallium refinery funding expands that concept into a four-government and industry partnership spanning the US, Australia and Japan.

China currently dominates gallium, having produced 750t in 2024 with 1,000t of capacity, according to USGS data. However, Beijing's decision to ban gallium exports to the US at the end of 2024 exposed the fragility of Western supply chains. As a result, governments are now willing to co-invest directly in mid-stream processing rather than rely solely on market signals.

Gallium refinery supports semiconductors, defense and clean energy

Gallium is essential for power electronics, solar cells and LED technologies that underpin the energy transition. In addition, gallium arsenide and gallium nitride semiconductors are crucial for military radar and precision-guided weapons. Therefore, Alcoa gallium refinery funding directly supports both decarbonisation and defence industrial base resilience.

The new refinery will extract gallium from existing alumina refinery streams, demonstrating how legacy assets can be upgraded for critical minerals. This integration limits greenfield risk and uses established infrastructure, power and workforce at Wagerup. At the same time, it aligns with the US and Australian goal to accelerate permitting by leveraging brownfield sites.

Under the broader minerals deal signed at the White House, Washington and Canberra plan to invest more than $3bn in critical supply chains. The programme spans mining, processing, faster approvals and joint geological mapping. Within that framework, Alcoa gallium refinery funding becomes a practical showcase of how policy, capital and industry can move together.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This project illustrates how quickly critical minerals policy is shifting from strategy papers to balance-sheet commitments. If execution stays on track, Alcoa's gallium refinery could become a template for integrating refining into existing bulk-materials sites. The key question now is whether similar government-backed models will follow for other bottleneck materials such as indium and rare earths.

US Senate energy and tax bill threatens clean energy incentives

US Senate

The US Senate energy and tax bill is set to reshape the country’s energy landscape. Senate Republicans introduced measures that slash clean energy tax credits, expand fossil fuel leasing, and extend trillions in tax cuts. The vote could pass as early as today, with deep consequences for renewable investors. The US Senate energy and tax bill also introduces excise taxes on wind and solar projects sourcing equipment from "prohibited foreign entities."

Major cuts to clean energy programs

The bill eliminates most climate provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act, including $7,500 EV tax credits and wind-solar incentives. Renewable industry leaders warn of mass job losses and halted investment. Meanwhile, biofuels, nuclear, and geothermal maintain partial support under adjusted credit structures. The new hydrogen credit deadline is January 2028.

Fossil fuels gain momentum

Oil and gas benefit heavily from the bill. It mandates Gulf of Mexico lease sales, reduces royalty rates, and restores tax deductions worth hundreds of millions. As a result, domestic drilling will accelerate. President Trump has demanded Congress finalize the bill before 4 July, framing it as a cornerstone of US energy independence.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The bill represents a decisive shift toward fossil fuel prioritization at the expense of renewables. For metals and critical minerals investors, reduced clean energy incentives may slow downstream demand, but fossil fuel expansion could sustain industrial inputs tied to oil and gas infrastructure.

REC Silicon Adjusts Polysilicon Inventory Goals Amid Market Challenges

REC Silicon

Norway-based REC Silicon has revised its goal for clearing its inventory of semiconductor-grade polysilicon. Originally aiming to clear it by the end of 2024, the company now expects to meet this target by mid-2025 due to low demand in the market. As part of its shift to focus on silicon gas production, REC has been adjusting its production strategies, including halting polysilicon production at certain facilities.

Shifting Focus to Silicon Gas Production

REC Silicon, which produced semiconductor-grade polysilicon in Butte, Montana, and solar-grade polysilicon in Moses Lake, Washington, faced challenges that led to the closure of its Butte plant in mid-2024. High electricity costs and weak semiconductor demand were the primary drivers behind this decision. Additionally, REC ceased production at its Moses Lake facility due to the difficulty of achieving the high purity required for polysilicon used in solar cells. As a result, the company is transitioning to focus exclusively on silicon gases, which are essential for semiconductor and solar panel manufacturing.

The long-term strategy for REC involves increasing its supply of silicon gases to semiconductor manufacturers, with a notable projection for US semiconductor production to double between 2022 and 2032. The company is also expanding its role in the solar industry, as domestic solar cell manufacturing capacity is expected to increase by 1,300% over the coming years.

New Opportunities in Silicon Battery Anodes

In a major strategic shift, REC Silicon plans to start supplying silicon gases to Sila Technologies, a company that produces silicon battery anodes, in the second half of 2025. This partnership will be a significant part of REC's new focus on silicon gases, as the company is currently in discussions with six other silicon battery anode manufacturers. As electric vehicle production continues to grow, carmakers are seeking alternatives to traditional lithium-ion batteries with graphite anodes.

The Butte plant is equipped to produce 7,400 tons per year of silane and other silicon gases, while the Moses Lake facility could reach a production capacity of 24,000 tons per year. The company is keeping the Moses Lake facility operational to ramp up production when market conditions improve.

US critical minerals list expands: copper, lead, potash, rhenium, silicon, silver added

US Critical Minerals

The US critical minerals list expanded to 54 minerals in the new USGS draft. The US critical minerals list now includes copper, lead, potash, rhenium, silicon, and silver. As a result, the US critical minerals list reshapes policy, permitting, and supply-chain priorities across energy, defense, and manufacturing.

What changed in the draft and why it matters

USGS removed arsenic and tellurium because supply-chain risks have eased. However, the agency added copper, lead, potash, rhenium, silicon, and silver. These additions align with domestic manufacturing needs and national security goals. The Energy Act of 2020 requires triennial updates. Therefore, the draft signals a structured, risk-based refresh. Copper’s inclusion elevates grid, EV, and data-center wiring. Meanwhile, silver and silicon support solar, power electronics, and semiconductors. Rhenium targets superalloys in aerospace and defense. Lead anchors batteries and critical industrial uses. Potash underpins fertilizers and food security, which intersect with energy transition metals through logistics.

What could come next: uranium, coal, and update cadence

USGS invited industry feedback on whether to include uranium, metallurgical coal, or other minerals. It also asked if annual updates are preferable to three-year cycles. As a result, planning horizons could shorten, affecting investment timing and offtake strategies. President Donald Trump directed USGS on 20 January to consider uranium in the 2025 list. Meanwhile, several assessed materials—such as molybdenum, phosphates, helium, and gold—did not make the cut. Therefore, the draft narrows focus to minerals with acute vulnerability and strategic leverage.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Bringing copper onto the list is the headline move. It strengthens the case for streamlined permits, midstream incentives, and recycling scale-up. If USGS shifts to annual updates, treasury, traders, and OEMs must adapt faster to policy-driven risk signals.

Copper Prices Plunge Amid Rising Inventories and Global Recession Fears

Copper prices have plummeted to a two-month low as rising global stockpiles and fears of an impending economic recession weigh heavily on the market. The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper prices dropped to $8,714 per metric tonne on August 5, a significant decline from the record high of $11,104.50 per metric tonne reached on May 20. Similarly, the most traded September contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 71,390 yuan per tonne ($9,934/t) on August 7, down from a historical high of 88,940 yuan per tonne on May 20.

The decline in copper prices has been driven by a surge in global exchange copper stocks, which soared to a three-year high of 556,033 metric tonnes on August 2, up from 215,269 metric tonnes in December 2023. This increase is largely attributed to rapid output growth and subdued demand from China, the world’s largest consumer of copper.

Global refined copper production saw a 6% year-on-year increase from January to May, fueled by capacity expansions in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Chinese smelters alone added approximately 800,000 tonnes per year of new capacity, primarily in the second half of 2023. CMOC, a diversified metals and minerals producer, reported a doubling of copper production from its DRC operations to 313,400 tonnes during the first half of 2024.

Further production increases are anticipated as new projects come online in the latter half of the year. US-based mining giant Freeport McMoran recently completed the construction of its Manyar smelter in Indonesia, with a production capacity of 300,000 tonnes per year, set to begin copper cathode manufacturing soon. Additionally, Indonesia’s Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara and China’s Jinchuan Group are expected to add significant capacity in the coming months.

Despite the surge in output, copper demand growth has lagged, particularly in China. Demand is projected to increase by only 2-3% this year, hindered by a 21.8% decline in the completion of new housing projects during the first half of the year. The power grid sector, China’s second-largest consumer of copper, has also seen moderate demand growth, with investments shifting toward aluminum-intensive ultra-high voltage grids.

Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and solar photovoltaics have seen steady copper demand growth, but not enough to offset the slowdown in the real estate and power grid sectors. Market participants remain cautious about the overall outlook.

Macroeconomic concerns have further exacerbated the situation. Weaker-than-expected US employment data for July, coupled with declining manufacturing indices in both the US and China, have fueled fears of a global recession. The US Federal Reserve’s emergency meeting on August 5, following a collapse in Japan’s stock market, has added to the uncertainty.

However, some positive factors may support copper prices in the near term. A continued shortage of copper concentrate feedstock and the suspension of several Chinese secondary copper processors due to a tax rebate cancellation may lead to production cuts. Additionally, a strike at BHP’s Escondida copper mine in Chile could further tighten supply.

The rapid development of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry in the US is expected to drive copper demand in the grid system, particularly in states like Virginia, where commercial electricity demand has surged due to the growth of AI databases.

Corning Nvidia Optical Connectivity Partnership Expands US AI Infrastructure Supply Chain

Corning

Corning Nvidia optical connectivity plans will expand US manufacturing capacity for the optical systems needed to support artificial intelligence data centres. Corning will build three new manufacturing facilities in North Carolina and Texas as it targets a tenfold increase in optical connectivity output.

Corning Nvidia optical connectivity investment also includes a more than 50% expansion in Corning’s fibre production. The move reflects rising demand for high-speed data movement across AI infrastructure, where advanced optical links are becoming as important as chips themselves.

Corning Nvidia optical connectivity partnership strengthens the domestic supply chain around Nvidia’s AI computing ecosystem. Nvidia chips require high-performance optical fibre connectivity to move data quickly and at scale across large data centre networks.

The agreement also has a strategic materials angle. The fibre-optics industry is the largest US end-user of germanium, making AI data centre buildout increasingly relevant to minor metals demand.

AI Data Centres Drive Optical Connectivity Demand

AI workloads require massive data movement between chips, servers and storage systems. As computing clusters grow, copper-based connections face performance, distance and energy-efficiency limits in some high-speed applications.

Optical connectivity helps solve that problem. It allows data to move faster and across longer distances, supporting the scale required by advanced AI data centres.

Corning’s planned facilities in North Carolina and Texas will increase domestic capacity for these optical systems. That is important because AI infrastructure is becoming a national industrial priority, not only a technology market.

For Nvidia, the partnership supports the physical network behind its chips. AI accelerators create value only when data can move efficiently through the system.

For Corning, the deal gives stronger exposure to one of the fastest-growing infrastructure markets. Optical fibre, cable assemblies and connectivity products are becoming critical components in the AI supply chain.

Germanium Demand Links AI Growth to Critical Materials

The partnership also connects AI infrastructure to germanium demand. Germanium is used in optical fibre production, making fibre expansion relevant to critical minerals and specialty materials markets.

This matters because germanium supply is already strategically sensitive. It is used in fibre optics, infrared systems, semiconductors, defence electronics and solar applications.

If AI data centre construction accelerates, optical fibre demand could strengthen further. That would increase attention on germanium availability, recycling, refining and origin security.

The transaction also includes a financial component. Nvidia has the right to purchase up to 15mn shares of Corning stock at a fixed price of $180/share, as well as a pre-funded warrant to purchase up to 3mn shares for a total price of $500mn.

That structure shows how strategic customers are moving closer to upstream and midstream suppliers. Nvidia is not only buying components. It is helping secure the manufacturing base needed for future AI infrastructure.

For the US, the partnership supports domestic manufacturing around semiconductors, photonics and critical materials. It also reinforces the wider shift toward regionalised supply chains for high-value technology infrastructure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Corning-Nvidia partnership shows that AI supply chains are moving beyond chips into optical fibre, photonics and specialty materials. Germanium demand could become a hidden beneficiary as data centres require faster and more resilient optical connectivity.

EnergyX Targets Argentinian Lithium Assets of Galan Lithium Amid Industry Downturn

US energy technology firm EnergyX has set its sights on acquiring Australian developer Galan Lithium’s assets in Argentina, a strategic move aimed at boosting lithium production despite current market challenges.

EnergyX has proposed a deal valued at $150 million, which includes $50 million in cash and $50 million worth of EnergyX shares, to purchase Galan’s lithium assets located in Salar del Hombre Muerto and Candelas. Additionally, EnergyX plans to inject another $50 million into its wholly-owned subsidiary, which will manage the assets. This funding will be allocated to complete the first commercial phase of lithium production at the Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project. Under the proposed agreement, Galan will receive 10% of gross revenue royalties for ten years following the commencement of commercial production.

The acquisition comes at a crucial time as Galan Lithium recently delayed the first production at its HMW project to the second half of 2025, attributing the delay to the current downturn in lithium prices. The HMW project’s initial phase is expected to produce 5,400 tons per year of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), with a long-term goal of reaching 60,000 tons per year in its final phase. The Candelas project is expected to be integrated into this production timeline.

EnergyX plans to leverage its direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology, which is significantly more complex than traditional methods but promises higher efficiency. DLE can potentially increase lithium recovery rates to 70-90%, compared to the traditional methods' 40-60% recovery rate from hard rock mining and solar evaporation. This innovative approach could significantly enhance the value of the Argentinian assets beyond Galan's current projections, which rely on evaporation pond methodologies.

The lithium industry has seen increasing interest in DLE technology from various sectors, including oil and gas companies. Firms like CleanTech Lithium, Equinor, and ExxonMobil are already investing in lithium projects that employ DLE, reflecting a broader industry shift towards more efficient and sustainable extraction methods.

Clean Power Growth Will Reshape Global Electricity Markets by 2030

Renewables and nuclear

Clean power growth is set to reshape global electricity markets by 2030. The IEA expects renewables and nuclear to provide half of the world’s electricity by then. This shift will happen even as global electricity demand rises strongly. As a result, clean power growth is becoming the dominant force in future power systems.

The scale of demand growth makes this transition more significant. Global electricity demand is expected to rise from 28,199 TWh in 2025 to 33,594 TWh in 2030. The IEA sees demand growing at an average annual rate of 3.6pc through 2030. Therefore, global electricity markets are not just decarbonising. They are also expanding rapidly.

This demand surge is being driven by structural changes in the economy. Industry is using more electricity, electric vehicle adoption is rising, and air conditioning demand is growing. Data centres and artificial intelligence are also adding a new layer of power consumption. Consequently, power demand growth is becoming one of the biggest industrial themes of the decade.

Renewable Power Generation Is Overtaking Coal in a Bigger Market

Renewable power generation is now moving ahead even as total electricity use climbs. The IEA said renewables are in the process of overtaking coal-fired generation after nearly matching it in 2025. Solar was especially important last year, offsetting weaker wind speeds and softer hydropower output. As a result, renewable power generation is now carrying more of the global power system.

The forecast growth is substantial. Renewable generation is expected to increase by around 1,050 TWh each year through 2030. Solar alone will account for more than 600 TWh of that annual increase. Therefore, solar remains the clearest growth engine inside the broader clean power expansion.

Coal will still remain the single largest source of electricity through 2030, but its position is weakening. The IEA expects coal-fired generation to contract by 0.9pc per year from 2026 to 2030. A plateau in Chinese coal generation is one of the main drivers behind this trend. Meanwhile, renewables and nuclear together are expected to rise from 43pc of global generation in 2025 to 50pc by 2030.

Power Demand Growth Will Test Grids, Flexibility, and Investment

Power demand growth will also expose weaknesses in grid infrastructure. The IEA warned that power systems need far more investment in grids and flexibility. More than 2.5TW of projects are currently stuck in connection queues worldwide. Therefore, grid expansion may become as important as generation investment itself.

Gas-fired generation will still play a support role in this transition. The IEA expects gas-fired power output to grow by 2.6pc per year through 2030. Stronger demand in the US and the Middle East will support that growth. As a result, global electricity markets are moving toward a more mixed system, not a simple fossil-to-renewable swap.

Emissions trends show why this shift matters. The IEA expects the rise of renewables to keep power-sector CO2 emissions roughly flat through 2030 despite higher demand. That would mark a significant change after years of steady emissions pressure. Consequently, clean power growth is becoming the main reason power-sector emissions are no longer rising with electricity use.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This forecast matters because it confirms that the power transition is no longer a niche policy story. Electricity is becoming the central growth engine of the global energy system, and clean power is taking a larger share of that expansion. The next real bottleneck will not be ambition. It will be whether grids, storage, and system flexibility can keep pace.

Battery Energy Storage Systems Accelerate Data Center Deployment

Battery Energy Storage Systems

Battery energy storage systems are becoming a practical tool for accelerating data center deployment as hyperscalers search for faster access to power. Industry executives said storage, combined with solar and wind, can help large technology companies bring major facilities online more quickly.

The discussion reflects a growing reality in the power market. Data center demand is rising alongside broader electrification, placing pressure on grids that were not designed for such rapid large-load growth.

Battery energy storage systems help address this problem by providing flexibility where grid connections, peak demand, or local capacity constraints delay projects. For hyperscalers, speed to power is now as important as land, chips, cooling, and fiber connectivity.

Storage Becomes a Bridge Between Hyperscalers and Grid Constraints

Battery energy storage systems can help data centers manage peak demand, reduce grid stress, and support faster deployment when full baseload supply is not immediately available. This makes storage a bridge between large electricity users and constrained power systems.

Invenergy said a mix of solar, wind, and storage can give hyperscalers strong speed-to-power advantages while remaining affordable. That combination is increasingly attractive because data centers need large volumes of electricity but also face public scrutiny over power prices.

The affordability issue is becoming more sensitive. US electricity prices rose by 6.3% in January, and rising demand from data centers is one of the factors adding pressure. If households feel they are paying more while large-load users secure cheaper power, the political risk around data center growth will increase.

Flexible Power Models Could Reshape Battery Demand

Technology companies are responding with a wider power strategy. Instead of relying only on large central power plants, they are looking at solar, wind, on-site batteries, demand response, and distributed storage.

Google said that in locations where peaking capacity is the main issue, faster solutions may include ramping down for short periods, switching to on-site batteries, or paying other customers to install batteries in their homes. This approach turns batteries into grid flexibility assets, not only backup systems.

For the materials supply chain, this matters because data center growth could become a stronger demand driver for batteries, lithium, graphite, iron phosphate materials, copper, aluminium, transformers, power electronics, and grid equipment. As AI infrastructure scales, battery storage will increasingly sit at the intersection of digital infrastructure and energy security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Battery energy storage systems are moving from optional backup equipment to strategic infrastructure for hyperscaler growth. The next bottleneck for AI data centers may not be computing hardware alone, but the ability to secure flexible, affordable, and politically acceptable power.

Hydro Powers Up Green Energy Transition at Alunorte Refinery with New Electric Boilers

Norsk Hydro

Norsk Hydro, a leading global aluminum producer, has announced the commissioning of two new electric boilers at its Alunorte alumina refinery in Pará, Brazil. This significant step is projected to slash the refinery's CO2 emissions by an impressive 550,000 tonnes annually, marking a major milestone in Hydro's decarbonization strategy.

Renewable Energy Powering the Future

These cutting-edge electric boilers will be fueled by renewable energy sources, thanks to long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) secured by Alunorte with the Mendubim solar park and the Ventos de Sao Zacarias wind farm. This strategic move away from fossil fuels underscores Hydro's commitment to sustainable operations and environmental stewardship.

Phasing Out Coal and Fuel Oil

The newly installed boilers replace two outdated coal-fired units, building upon the successful installation of the first electric boiler in 2022.  Hydro has invested NOK 580 million (approximately $51 million USD) in this transition from coal to renewable energy at Alunorte. This investment demonstrates Hydro's dedication to achieving its ambitious target of reducing the refinery's carbon emissions by up to 70% by 2030.  Furthermore, Hydro transitioned to natural gas at Alunorte in August, following a $240 million investment to replace fuel oil. The company plans to eventually power all of the facility's calciners with natural gas, further minimizing its environmental footprint.

“Alunorte is already among the most energy-efficient refineries and this project is moving us even further in our decarbonisation efforts,” said Carlos Neves, Hydro’s vice-president for bauxite and alumina operations.  This statement highlights the company's proactive approach to sustainability and its leadership in the aluminum industry's green energy transition.

Zinc Demand and Supply Expected to Rebalance in 2025

Zinc

Recovery in Automotive, Infrastructure, and Green Energy to Boost Zinc Market

Global zinc demand is projected to rise marginally in 2025, driven by steady growth from automotive, infrastructure, and green energy sectors. According to the International Zinc Association (IZA), refined zinc demand is forecast to increase by 1%, with notable growth in India and the United States, while China and Europe show moderate gains.

Meanwhile, the zinc supply landscape is recovering after a contraction in 2024. ILZSG projects global mine supply will increase by 4.3% this year, supported by new output from the Kipushi, Tara, and Buenavista mines. However, some production sites, including Russia’s Ozernoye and the Red Dog mine in the U.S., may fall short of expectations, highlighting persistent uncertainty in the zinc supply chain.

Smelter expansions are also contributing to a long-term supply rebound. Boliden’s Odda 4.0 project in Norway is on track to reach 350,000 t/yr capacity in the second half of 2025. Additional capacity from the Nordenham smelter in Germany and new Chinese smelters will be partially offset by weaker output from facilities in Canada, Italy, Australia, Japan, and South Korea. As a result, the ILZSG forecasts a global surplus of 93,000 tonnes in 2025, reversing last year’s deficit of 62,000 tonnes.

Automotive and Green Tech to Sustain Long-Term Zinc Growth

The automotive industry remains a key driver of zinc consumption, particularly in galvanised steel for vehicle bodies. Western markets already have high galvanisation rates, while China and India are rapidly catching up. The IZA forecasts a 22% increase in auto-sector zinc use by 2030, translating to an additional 140,000 tonnes of demand.

India’s rapid urban development and China’s robust manufacturing output are also boosting zinc demand across infrastructure and consumer goods. In Europe, public investment in infrastructure and defence, especially in Germany, is expected to support a moderate recovery in zinc usage from late 2025 onward.

Green energy technologies — including wind, solar, and battery systems — are also emerging as major zinc consumers. The IZA projects demand from green tech will exceed 652,000 tonnes by 2030, with more than $1 billion already invested in zinc-based energy storage systems.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zinc's supply-demand fundamentals are gradually stabilizing, with rising industrial and green-tech consumption offsetting geopolitical and logistical risks. The rebound in mine and smelter capacity suggests a structurally balanced market may return by 2025. However, long-term resilience will depend on investment in both primary production and recycling infrastructure.

Wolfspeed's Silicon Carbide Demand Surges with EV Transition to 800V Architecture

The global transition to 800V electric vehicle (EV) charging systems from the traditional 400V architecture is fueling a significant increase in demand for silicon carbide (SiC) power devices, according to US-based semiconductor manufacturer Wolfspeed. This trend has been a key driver behind Wolfspeed's strong quarterly revenue growth, despite a general downturn in the broader automotive semiconductor market.

Wolfspeed reported that its EV-related revenue more than doubled in the quarter ending June 30 compared to the previous year, and it is expected to increase by around 300% year-on-year in the upcoming quarter ending September 30. Electric vehicles accounted for approximately 50% of Wolfspeed's power device revenue in the most recent quarter, a substantial rise from 25% a year earlier. This percentage is projected to climb above 60% by the end of September.

Chief Financial Officer Neill Reynolds emphasized that while short-term EV adoption rates have been revised downward, the demand for SiC in EVs remains robust. The shift to 800V systems, which require higher power capabilities that SiC technology offers over conventional silicon devices, is a major factor driving this demand.

Industry experts predict that by 2027-30, over 90% of new EVs will utilize 800V systems. Reflecting this trend, approximately 70% of Wolfspeed's $2 billion in design-ins from the June quarter were linked to 800V applications. Many of the EV designs Wolfspeed has developed over the past 5-7 years are now moving into production, with around $500 million in new designs receiving approval for use during the last quarter. This backlog supports over 125 EV models across more than 30 original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the coming years.

While the automotive sector is leading the adoption of SiC technology, Wolfspeed’s President and CEO, Gregg Lowe, noted that high-voltage applications in energy markets, such as AI data centers, electric mobility, and solar inverters, are also expected to drive further demand in the coming years.

Wolfspeed is accelerating the transition of its power device production to 200mm semiconductors at its new Mohawk Valley facility in New York, where unit costs are lower compared to its 150mm device facility in Durham, North Carolina. The company expects to complete construction of its new JP Siler City materials factory by mid-2025, which will supply wafers to Mohawk Valley, aiming for 30% capacity utilization.

Although the Durham facility has been operating at reduced rates due to weaknesses in the industrial and energy markets, Wolfspeed is assessing the timing of the 150mm device fab's closure as production ramps up at Mohawk Valley. However, this shift does not alter the company’s long-term view that industrial and energy products will continue to be a substantial part of its portfolio, according to Reynolds.