Clean Power Growth Will Reshape Global Electricity Markets by 2030

Renewables and nuclear

Clean power growth is set to reshape global electricity markets by 2030. The IEA expects renewables and nuclear to provide half of the world’s electricity by then. This shift will happen even as global electricity demand rises strongly. As a result, clean power growth is becoming the dominant force in future power systems.

The scale of demand growth makes this transition more significant. Global electricity demand is expected to rise from 28,199 TWh in 2025 to 33,594 TWh in 2030. The IEA sees demand growing at an average annual rate of 3.6pc through 2030. Therefore, global electricity markets are not just decarbonising. They are also expanding rapidly.

This demand surge is being driven by structural changes in the economy. Industry is using more electricity, electric vehicle adoption is rising, and air conditioning demand is growing. Data centres and artificial intelligence are also adding a new layer of power consumption. Consequently, power demand growth is becoming one of the biggest industrial themes of the decade.

Renewable Power Generation Is Overtaking Coal in a Bigger Market

Renewable power generation is now moving ahead even as total electricity use climbs. The IEA said renewables are in the process of overtaking coal-fired generation after nearly matching it in 2025. Solar was especially important last year, offsetting weaker wind speeds and softer hydropower output. As a result, renewable power generation is now carrying more of the global power system.

The forecast growth is substantial. Renewable generation is expected to increase by around 1,050 TWh each year through 2030. Solar alone will account for more than 600 TWh of that annual increase. Therefore, solar remains the clearest growth engine inside the broader clean power expansion.

Coal will still remain the single largest source of electricity through 2030, but its position is weakening. The IEA expects coal-fired generation to contract by 0.9pc per year from 2026 to 2030. A plateau in Chinese coal generation is one of the main drivers behind this trend. Meanwhile, renewables and nuclear together are expected to rise from 43pc of global generation in 2025 to 50pc by 2030.

Power Demand Growth Will Test Grids, Flexibility, and Investment

Power demand growth will also expose weaknesses in grid infrastructure. The IEA warned that power systems need far more investment in grids and flexibility. More than 2.5TW of projects are currently stuck in connection queues worldwide. Therefore, grid expansion may become as important as generation investment itself.

Gas-fired generation will still play a support role in this transition. The IEA expects gas-fired power output to grow by 2.6pc per year through 2030. Stronger demand in the US and the Middle East will support that growth. As a result, global electricity markets are moving toward a more mixed system, not a simple fossil-to-renewable swap.

Emissions trends show why this shift matters. The IEA expects the rise of renewables to keep power-sector CO2 emissions roughly flat through 2030 despite higher demand. That would mark a significant change after years of steady emissions pressure. Consequently, clean power growth is becoming the main reason power-sector emissions are no longer rising with electricity use.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This forecast matters because it confirms that the power transition is no longer a niche policy story. Electricity is becoming the central growth engine of the global energy system, and clean power is taking a larger share of that expansion. The next real bottleneck will not be ambition. It will be whether grids, storage, and system flexibility can keep pace.