U.S. Solar Power Hits Record Growth in 2024 Despite Policy Uncertainty

Wood Mackenzie

Utility-scale solar leads capacity surge as residential segment contracts; industry braces for regulatory headwinds in 2025.

The U.S. solar sector added nearly 50,000 MWdc of capacity in 2024, setting a new record and growing 21% year-over-year, according to a joint report by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie. Solar energy accounted for 66% of all new power generation, surpassing its previous high of 56% set in 2023.

This marks the fourth consecutive year solar has held the largest share of new U.S. generation, driven by Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives, resilient supply chains, and strong demand from utilities and corporations.

Utility-Scale Leads Surge, But Residential Slumps

Utility-scale solar led the boom, adding 41,100 MWdc—a 33% increase from 2023. However, 2025 may see a 2% contraction in this segment due to policy uncertainty.

The residential solar market declined 31% to 4,700 MWdc, hit by high financing costs and lower demand. Still, 9% growth is expected in 2025, especially in California, where market stabilization is underway.

Commercial installations rose 8% to 2,100 MWdc, fueled by projects under California’s NEM 2.0, but are expected to drop 11% in 2025. Developers face federal compliance hurdles related to wage and apprenticeship rules tied to tax credits.

Growth in Community Solar, But Headwinds Ahead

Community solar jumped 35% to nearly 1,750 MWdc, though 2025 growth could fall 15% due to interconnection issues and saturation in mature states.

While demand remains strong, looming policy risks threaten momentum. These include:

• Tariff hikes on Canadian and Mexican imports set for April 2

• A 60-day freeze on permitting for federal land projects

• A shift in federal focus toward thermal and hydro energy

Despite these risks, SEIA and Wood Mackenzie forecast a minimum of 43,000 MWdc per year through 2035, pushing cumulative capacity beyond 730,000 MWdc. However, that pace could slow by 25% if key IRA tax incentives are removed or diluted.