Bismuth Tellurium PV Demand Growth Driven by Solar Technology Expansion

Bismuth

Bismuth tellurium PV demand faces divergent growth trajectories as photovoltaic industry expansion supports bismuth consumption while trade conflicts constrain tellurium market development. The bismuth tellurium PV sector dynamics were highlighted at the 2025 China bismuth and tellurium development forum in Chenzhou, where industry experts analyzed critical materials supply chains for emerging solar technologies.

Bismuth Consumption Accelerates Through HJT Solar Battery Growth

Bismuth tellurium PV applications demonstrate strong growth potential, particularly in heterojunction (HJT) solar battery manufacturing. Global bismuth consumption reached 18,000-19,000 tonnes in 2024, with China representing approximately 40% at 6,600-6,800 tonnes according to Vital Technology Group. The HJT battery technology combines crystalline silicon advantages with thin film capabilities, requiring bismuth-based low-temperature welding materials.

Meanwhile, global HJT cell shipments surged from 4 GW in 2022 to 25 GW in 2024. Demand for low-temperature welding materials increased correspondingly from 2,000 tonnes in 2022 to 10,000 tonnes in 2024. Industry projections indicate HJT shipments will reach 80 GW in 2025, requiring 30,000 tonnes of specialized welding materials containing bismuth.

Tellurium Market Faces Trade-Related Headwinds

However, tellurium consumption encounters challenges despite growing photovoltaic industry demand. China dominates global tellurium production with 803 tonnes in 2024, representing 68% of worldwide output totaling 1,179 tonnes. The metal finds primary application in cadmium-telluride (Cd-Te) thin-film solar modules, consuming approximately 130 tonnes per gigawatt of production capacity.

Therefore, trade tensions between China and the US create uncertainty for tellurium demand growth. Major US manufacturer First Solar reduced sales guidance from 18-20 GW to 15.5-19.3 GW in April, citing trade uncertainty and higher tariffs imposed since President Trump's February inauguration. This guidance reduction directly impacts global Cd-Te consumption projections for 2025.

Building-Integrated PV Creates New Demand Channels

Furthermore, building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) applications present emerging growth opportunities for both critical minerals. China plans significant BIPV capacity expansion, potentially increasing tellurium utilization according to China Triumph representatives. Global Cd-Te thin-film solar cell output reached 16 GW in 2024, indicating 2,080 tonnes of Cd-Te demand for absorption layer applications.

As a result, bismuth benefits from diversified application portfolios including automobile glass ink (19% of consumption), pigments (13%), catalysts (8%), and pharmaceuticals (8%). This diversification provides stability compared to tellurium's concentrated dependence on solar module manufacturing, which remains vulnerable to geopolitical trade disruptions affecting major consuming markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The contrasting trajectories of bismuth and tellurium in photovoltaic applications highlight how trade policies increasingly influence critical minerals demand patterns beyond traditional supply-side considerations. While technological advancement drives fundamental growth in both materials, tellurium's concentrated exposure to US-China trade tensions demonstrates the vulnerability of specialized critical minerals to geopolitical disruptions in key end-use sectors.

Fortune Demonstrates Bismuth Extraction from Copper Waste, Advancing NICO Project

Fortune

Fortune Minerals, a Canadian mine developer, has announced a significant breakthrough in bismuth extraction technology, successfully proving the feasibility of recovering bismuth from copper waste streams at Rio Tinto's Kennecott smelter in Utah. This achievement validates the company's planned hydrometallurgical process for its Lamont County, Alberta facility.

This facility is integral to Fortune's NICO project, located approximately 160km northwest of Yellowknife in the Northwest Territories, where the company intends to process both bismuth and cobalt. Fortune Minerals has secured crucial regulatory approvals for both the NICO mine and the Alberta facility, including environmental assessment approval, major mine permits, and municipal planning approvals.

NICO Project's Resource Potential:

The NICO project boasts substantial mineral reserves, with 33.1 million metric tonnes (t) of proven and probable reserves. This includes 36,741t of cobalt, 45,580t of bismuth, and 12,143t of copper. The deposit is estimated to have a 20-year mine life and contains a significant portion of global bismuth reserves, representing approximately 12%.

Sustainable Resource Recovery:

Fortune Minerals' demonstrated ability to extract bismuth from copper waste streams aligns with the growing emphasis on sustainable mining practices and resource recovery. Utilizing waste materials not only enhances resource efficiency but also reduces the environmental footprint of mining operations. The application of this technology at the Lamont County facility will enable the company to maximize the recovery of valuable metals from the NICO deposit.

This advancement positions Fortune Minerals as a key player in the bismuth and cobalt market, contributing to the supply of critical minerals for various industries, including electronics, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy technologies.

European Bi, In Price Rallies Stall on Profit-Taking

The surge in European bismuth and indium prices has decelerated as sellers capitalize on the substantial gains made in the second quarter, prompting slight declines in the past two weeks. Initially, speculation and constrained feedstock availability in China drove a sharp rise in prices, leading European sellers to elevate their offers in line with increasing replacement costs.

Bismuth prices in Europe saw a remarkable 77% increase from April to June but experienced a modest dip in early July due to profit-taking activities. Traders, seeking to benefit from the recent price rally, sold long-held low-cost materials at discounted rates compared to the higher-cost replacement materials sourced from China.

Similarly, indium prices, which reached a nine-year peak of $373-413/kg in June, have slightly receded to $373-401/kg. This adjustment followed a downturn in the Chinese domestic market, prompting European sellers to lower their offers and secure profits from the 35% price rise seen in the second quarter.

Despite tepid demand from European consumers, both metals experienced rapid price hikes in the second quarter, driven by elevated replacement costs from China. Chinese export prices for bismuth surged by 63% from April to June, remaining stable at $6.14-6.26/lb fob. Environmental inspections in China, which restricted the supply of bismuth concentrates from lead and zinc refineries, and speculative trading further exacerbated this price rise.

Indium supply constraints from China's Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi provinces due to environmental checks, coupled with trading activities on the Zhonglianjin platform, propelled prices upward. Although Chinese export prices for indium peaked at $371-391/kg fob in mid-May, they declined to $359-374/kg through June as trading activity slowed.

Speculation Fuels Minor Metal Price Increases

The swift price increases for bismuth and indium have spurred speculation about potential hikes in other minor metals such as selenium, tellurium, and germanium, whose prices are already trending upward.

Selenium prices in Europe were assessed at $10.40-13.10/lb duty unpaid Rotterdam, up from $10.30-12.40/lb at the end of June, marking a 7% rise in the second quarter driven by higher replacement costs from China and consistent demand.

Tellurium prices rose by 13% in June, last assessed at $91-99/kg duty unpaid Rotterdam, reflecting tight supply in European warehouses and rising prices in China.

Germanium metal prices hit a nine-year high of $1,810-2,010/kg cif main airport on July 2, up from $1,620-1,920/kg at the start of June, following an increase in Chinese export prices. The average germanium price in the first half of this year was $1,607/kg, significantly higher than the 10-year average of $1,324/kg, due to export controls limiting supply outside China.

Spot demand for most minor metals in Europe remains sluggish and is expected to stay low over the summer. However, market participants are closely monitoring China for indications of which minor metals might experience the next price spike, given Europe's heavy reliance on Chinese exports for many of these metals.

5N Plus Poised for Increased Tellurium Orders from First Solar Amid China Export Controls

5N Plus

US Solar Panel Giant May Boost Spot Demand as 5N Plus Expands Non-Chinese Supply and Space Solar Capacity

5N Plus Expects Surge in Tellurium Spot Sales from First Solar

Canadian semiconductor materials producer 5N Plus anticipates additional spot tellurium orders from US-based solar panel leader First Solar, as the latter moves to diversify its supply chain away from China. The shift comes after Beijing imposed new export controls on tellurium, following similar restrictions on gallium and germanium.

First Solar uses cadmium telluride (CdTe) in its thin-film solar panels and partners with 5N Plus to refine tellurium by-product sourced from Rio Tinto’s Kennecott mine in Utah. 5N Plus already has a minimum-volume supply agreement, which was increased by 50% for the next two years, effectively tripling the contract volume compared to 2022.

According to CEO Gervais Jacques, First Solar is “most likely to request more than the minimum,” signaling robust demand as the U.S. seeks to reduce reliance on Chinese critical minerals.

5N Plus Expands Non-Chinese Supply Chains and Space Solar Production

While First Solar evaluates potential disruptions from China’s export policy, 5N Plus has strengthened sourcing of key materials. It procures germanium from Europe and Canada, while maintaining a stable bismuth supply outside of China. These measures are part of a broader strategy to insulate the company from geopolitical supply risks.

Additionally, 5N Plus is scaling up its space solar division, which manufactures advanced germanium substrates used in high-efficiency satellite applications. These substrates are layered with materials such as AlInGaP, AlGaAs, and InGaAs. The company expects this business to grow by 30% in 2024, with capacity expansions ongoing through Q4.

Bismuth Chemicals to See Steady Demand from Health Sector

Beyond semiconductors, 5N Plus projects continued bismuth demand growth driven by pharmaceutical and healthcare markets, in line with global GDP trends. The company’s Lübeck, Germany facility is positioned to support this growth, supplying high-purity bismuth chemicals used in medical applications.

China Expands Export Controls on Critical Minerals Amid Trade Tensions

China Critical Minerals

New Restrictions on Tungsten, Indium, and Other Critical Metals

China has intensified its trade strategies by imposing new export controls on additional critical minerals. This move is seen as a countermeasure against higher tariffs recently imposed by the United States. The newly restricted materials include various metals and compounds of tungsten, indium, tellurium, bismuth, and molybdenum. The export restrictions came into effect on February 4, as announced by China’s Ministry of Commerce.

Impact on Global Supply Chains

This expansion of export controls follows the introduction of similar measures in 2023-24, which included key materials such as gallium, germanium, graphite, and antimony. With the recent addition, the scope now covers more crucial metals used in various industries globally. According to industry estimates, China holds a dominant share of the global supply for metals like tungsten and bismuth. For instance, it is the world’s largest producer and exporter of tungsten, controlling nearly 80% of the global market. Similarly, China is responsible for 70-80% of the world's bismuth supply, which further underscores its influential role in the global supply chain.

The new export controls will allow China greater flexibility in deciding which countries can receive these critical minerals. Market participants have indicated that the export restrictions could drive up global prices, especially for tungsten and bismuth, due to China's near-monopoly on these materials. This is likely to cause disruptions for industries that rely heavily on these metals, from electronics to energy production.

Global Repercussions and Market Shifts

The broader implications of these controls may be felt across various sectors. As China continues to tighten its grip on critical mineral exports, consumers outside of China will face challenges in securing alternative sources of supply. However, some experts suggest that this move might spur increased investments in local production capabilities in non-China markets, as countries seek to reduce their dependence on Chinese supplies.

In the short term, global markets will likely experience higher prices for the affected minerals, particularly as exporters must follow a stringent verification process before shipping these critical materials. The procedural delays and uncertainty about permitted shipments will add to the volatility of the market.

Conclusion: Strategic Maneuver in Global Trade

China's latest export controls reflect a growing trend of resource nationalism, where nations leverage their dominance in critical industries to secure economic and political advantages. These measures come amidst heightened trade tensions, particularly with the United States, and are designed to protect China’s national security and economic interests. As the global demand for these minerals continues to rise, China’s role in the critical metals supply chain remains pivotal, making it essential for businesses worldwide to monitor these developments closely.

Fortune Minerals Secures Site for Potential Cobalt and Copper Refinery in Alberta

Canada-based mining company Fortune Minerals has signed a new option agreement with JFSL Field Services to acquire a brownfield industrial site in Alberta’s Lamont County, where it plans to build a refinery that will produce cobalt, bismuth, and copper products. The site, previously home to a steel fabrication plant, offers proximity to rail lines, essential reagents, and skilled labor, making it a strategic choice for the refinery.

The agreement allows Fortune Minerals to purchase the 77-acre property for C$6 million ($4.4 million) by November 2025. As part of the deal, Fortune is required to make monthly payments of C$100,000, which will contribute to the purchase price. To date, the company has paid over C$1.4 million, which will be deducted from the total purchase cost.

During the option period, JFSL Field Services is permitted to market the site to other potential buyers, but Fortune retains a 90-day right of first refusal to match any offer. Additionally, JFSL can continue using the property and its existing facilities for 18 months following a sale.

Fortune plans to use the site to refine concentrates from its NICO critical minerals project in the Northwest Territories, targeting annual production of 8,780 metric tonnes of cobalt sulfate, 1,700 tonnes of bismuth ingots, and 300 tonnes of copper in cement precipitate. The company is also exploring the possibility of extracting cobalt and bismuth from waste streams at Rio Tinto’s smelter in Utah, which processes ore from the Kennecott copper mine.

The development of the NICO mine, which will utilize both open-pit and underground mining methods, has not yet begun as Fortune awaits a final construction decision. The company has received federal funding from both the Canadian and U.S. governments to complete a new feasibility study, a process expected to take 20 months. Securing financing for the construction of the mine and refinery, estimated to cost C$770 million, remains a critical step. Fortune anticipates that establishing the mine will take two years, with the refinery requiring 18 months to complete.

Nyrstar Australian Smelters Face Uncertain Future Without New Funding

Nyrstar

Nyrstar Australian smelters face an uncertain future as the company reviews possible closures or output curtailments at its Port Pirie lead smelter and Hobart zinc smelter. The review comes after interim government rescue funding expired without a second phase being agreed.

Nyrstar Australian smelters received A$135mn in interim support in August last year. The funding was designed to keep the 160,000 t/yr Port Pirie lead smelter in South Australia and the 280,000 t/yr Hobart zinc smelter in Tasmania operating while longer-term solutions were assessed.

Nyrstar Australian smelters are strategically important because they preserve domestic processing capability for base metals and potential critical minerals. But the facilities remain economically challenged by weak commodity pricing, high energy costs and the need for capital investment.

The company, owned by Trafigura, said it is now exploring all options for the two assets. No final decision has been made on closures or production cuts.

Port Pirie and Hobart Test Australia’s Industrial Policy

The Port Pirie and Hobart smelters sit at the centre of Australia’s debate over whether strategic processing capacity should be preserved through public support. Both assets are partway through two-year feasibility studies to diversify output into critical minerals such as bismuth and tellurium.

This diversification is important because traditional lead and zinc smelting margins have been under pressure. Adding critical minerals could improve the strategic value of the facilities and create new revenue streams.

Port Pirie has already started moving in that direction. The first shipment of antimony from a pilot plant was exported in February under the first-phase funding agreement.

Nyrstar said the Port Pirie pilot plant could produce 2,000 t/yr of antimony by the end of this year. That would be meaningful because antimony is increasingly viewed as a strategic metal for defence, flame retardants, batteries and industrial alloys.

Hobart has already faced production cuts during weaker zinc market conditions. That history shows how exposed the site remains to zinc prices, energy costs and operating margins.

Without a second funding phase, Nyrstar may cut capital expenditure and operating costs as part of the review. That could delay diversification plans and weaken Australia’s ability to preserve downstream metal processing capacity.

Critical Minerals Could Decide Smelter Value

The future of the two smelters may depend on whether they can become more than conventional lead and zinc assets. Processing critical minerals could give them a stronger role in Australia’s industrial strategy.

Australia’s Future Made in Australia policy aims to retain industrial capability and use renewable energy to support low-carbon exports, including metals. Smelters such as Port Pirie and Hobart fit that policy direction if they can become competitive and strategically relevant.

The challenge is cost. Existing smelters need reliable power, capital upgrades and market support to compete against lower-cost global processors.

Recent government support for aluminium and copper processors shows that Canberra is willing to intervene when strategic industrial assets face closure. But each case still needs a credible long-term pathway.

For Nyrstar, that pathway may involve antimony, bismuth, tellurium and other by-product metals. These materials can improve the value of complex smelting operations if they are recovered efficiently and sold into secure supply chains.

For Australia, the decision is broader than one company. Losing smelting capacity would weaken domestic processing depth at a time when governments are trying to reduce dependence on concentrated foreign refining systems.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nyrstar’s Australian smelter review shows that critical minerals policy must extend beyond mining into processing assets that already exist. The key question is whether Australia can turn legacy smelters into strategic by-product platforms before high energy costs force permanent closures.

Minor Metals Security Premium Becomes Cost of Supply Chain Resilience

Minor Metals

Minor metals security premium is becoming a structural cost for western buyers as China’s dominance in processing leaves supply chains exposed to disruption. Speakers at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne said consumers must pay more for non-Chinese minor metals if they want resilient supply.

The argument is no longer theoretical. Chinese export controls have reduced available supply in western markets and widened the price gap between China and Europe. Materials that once traded closely across regions now reflect very different fundamentals.

Minor metals security premium is most visible in dual-use products subject to Chinese export controls. European gallium prices are more than double Chinese export levels, while Rotterdam germanium prices are also close to twice Chinese fob values.

This premium is not only a temporary reaction to trade disruption. Speakers argued that higher western prices must persist even if export controls are eased, because alternative processing capacity outside China needs long-term economic support.

China Export Controls Break Traditional Price Links

China’s concentration in minor metals processing has created a major vulnerability for western manufacturers. Many critical materials are produced as by-products, refined in small volumes and traded through narrow supply chains.

That structure makes the market highly sensitive to policy changes. When China restricts exports, buyers in Europe and the US cannot easily replace supply because there are few alternative processors with qualified material.

The result is a geographic price split. European warehouse prices once tracked Chinese markets closely, but that relationship no longer reflects real availability outside China. Chinese prices now represent domestic conditions, while western prices reflect scarcity, logistics risk and origin security.

Gallium and germanium show this most clearly. Both metals are essential for semiconductors, optics, power electronics, defence systems, satellite communications and advanced manufacturing. Both are also heavily exposed to Chinese processing and export licensing.

For western buyers, the question is no longer whether Chinese prices look cheaper. The real question is whether material can be accessed, shipped, qualified and used without exposing factories to sudden supply interruptions.

That changes procurement behaviour. Buyers are increasingly willing to pay a security premium for material with reliable origin, clearer documentation and lower exposure to export restrictions.

The same logic is spreading to other by-product metals. Indium, bismuth and antimony are gaining strategic attention because they support electronics, flame retardants, solders, alloys, photovoltaics, semiconductors and defence-related applications.

These metals are often small in volume but large in industrial consequence. A missing input can stop production even if the dollar value of the metal is tiny compared with the final product.

This is why western buyers are treating minor metals differently from ordinary commodities. They are paying for continuity, not only material.

Supply Security Needs Processing Capacity and Long-Term Demand

Minor metals security premium must support investment, not only emergency buying. If higher prices disappear as soon as immediate disruption fades, new processing projects outside China will struggle to survive.

This is the key industrial challenge. Building non-Chinese supply requires refining capacity, technical know-how, environmental permitting, qualified output and customer commitments. These cannot be created quickly during a crisis.

A short-term price spike can help existing suppliers, but it does not guarantee new capacity. Investors need confidence that buyers will continue paying for secure supply after the market stabilises.

This is where security premiums differ from green premiums. Green premiums have often been debated because buyers could delay paying more for lower-carbon materials. But critical materials supply disruption leaves fewer choices.

If rare earths, gallium, germanium or antimony are unavailable, manufacturers may face production stoppages. In that situation, the premium becomes part of operating cost rather than a voluntary sustainability expense.

Governments can help bridge this gap through stockpiles, offtake support, price floors, procurement rules and financing tools. But industry also needs to accept that resilient supply chains cost more than the lowest-price global model.

For miners, by-product metals can improve project economics. Recovering indium, bismuth, antimony, gallium or germanium can add revenue streams to larger operations and strengthen the business case for complex ore bodies.

For refiners, sustained premiums can justify investment in separation and purification capacity. For manufacturers, long-term contracts can reduce the risk of sudden shortages and forced spot-market buying.

The larger strategic point is clear. Western supply chains cannot become more secure while continuing to benchmark only against Chinese domestic prices. Security, traceability and supply reliability require a different pricing model.

Minor metals security premium therefore represents a shift in how critical materials are valued. Buyers are beginning to price the risk of disruption, not just the cost of production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The security premium for minor metals is the market’s way of pricing geopolitical risk into industrial supply. Western buyers cannot build resilient supply chains while demanding Chinese-cost material from non-Chinese sources.

US Antimony DLA contract strengthens US strategic antimony supply

US Antimony

US Antimony DLA contract marks a major step in rebuilding North America’s antimony supply chain and defense resilience. The five-year, fixed-price US Antimony DLA contract is worth up to $245mn and targets nearly 6.7mn lbs of metal. As a result, the US Antimony DLA contract positions the company as the core domestic supplier for this critical mineral.

DLA moves to secure domestic antimony for the stockpile

The US Defense Logistics Agency awarded US Antimony a contract to supply ingots for the National Defense Stockpile. Deliveries will go to the Scotia Depot in New York, with first shipments expected this week under the multi-year framework. The tender directly cited US Antimony as the only source of qualifying domestic-grade material, underscoring its unique position.

US Antimony operates the only two antimony smelters in North America, in Montana and at Madero in Mexico. The Madero smelter reopened in April, restoring additional regional capacity for processed antimony products. Together, these assets give the company integrated upstream and midstream control from ore to ingot.

Antimony’s role in defense and critical minerals strategy

Antimony is a core ingredient in many strategic and military applications, especially for alloys and flame retardants. It is used in batteries, cables and specialized defense components, making secure supply a national priority. Therefore, the contract fits into Washington’s broader push to rebuild domestic and allied capacity for critical minerals.

The DLA has expanded its National Defense Stockpile purchases across several critical minerals this year. Recent tenders and RFIs have targeted cobalt, bismuth, high-purity aluminum, scandium flake, niobium and ferro-niobium. This portfolio approach aims to reduce dependence on unstable or adversarial foreign sources.

Market implications for antimony and strategic metals

The US Antimony DLA contract sends a strong demand signal to antimony markets and potential investors. Long-term, fixed-price offtake can support capital spending, operational stability and potential future expansions. Meanwhile, the contract highlights the value of having permitted, operating smelter capacity in politically stable jurisdictions.

Global antimony supply remains concentrated, with China still dominating mine output and processing. As a result, Western buyers increasingly seek diversified supply chains, including North American and allied producers. US Antimony’s position as the only North American smelter operator makes it a central part of this shift.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal effectively transforms US Antimony from a niche smelter into a strategic asset for US defense planners. For the broader critical minerals sector, it signals that long-dated government offtake contracts may become a key financing tool for non-Chinese supply.

Port Pirie antimony production marks a new non-China supply route

Nyrstar

Port Pirie antimony production has moved from plan to reality as Nyrstar produced its first antimony metal at a pilot facility in South Australia. The milestone puts a traded, defence-relevant minor metal into a Western processing pipeline. Therefore, Port Pirie antimony production gives buyers a new option as export controls reshape critical mineral trade.

Port Pirie antimony production will now shift toward commercial exports in the first half of next year. Trafigura owns Nyrstar, which positions the project to connect quickly with global offtakers. However, the ramp-up still depends on capital discipline and stable plant performance.

Pilot output targets 2,000 t/y and a 5,000 t/y pathway

Port Pirie antimony production targets 2,000 tonnes per year by the end of next year. Nyrstar also flagged capacity to reach 5,000 tonnes per year by 2028 if it secures additional upgrade investment. As a result, the pilot phase works as both a technical proof and a funding catalyst for scale.

The pilot operation depends on Port Pirie’s 160,000 t/y lead smelter, where antimony arises as a by-product stream. That integration can lower unit costs versus greenfield builds. Meanwhile, Nyrstar is also assessing bismuth and tellurium output, which can add strategic value for electronics and defence supply chains.

Price volatility and government backing shape the economics

Port Pirie antimony production arrives after a sharp price spike driven by shortages and China’s export controls. Prices later fell from record highs, yet they remain far above long-run averages. Therefore, non-China capacity can still clear a high incentive bar, even as the market cools.

Australia’s policy support also matters for timing and bankability. Government assistance supported smelter stability after a price-driven downturn, and Export Finance Australia issued a conditional support letter for the pilot plant tied to a wider US-Australia critical minerals framework. However, the financing remains non-binding and depends on commercial terms and due diligence.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Port Pirie antimony production will not end China’s leverage, but it improves redundancy in a tight market. Meanwhile, the by-product model can scale faster than standalone mines and refineries. Therefore, buyers should watch qualification timelines and product specs as exports begin.

US seeks critical minerals to grow stockpile and bolster defense security

US seeks critical mineral mining

US seeks critical minerals to grow stockpile as Washington accelerates defense supply chain security efforts. The Defense Logistics Agency has launched an aggressive tender round across multiple metals to rebuild the national defense stockpile. As a result, US seeks critical minerals to grow stockpile faster than domestic production and import baselines can easily support.

The DLA’s new tenders cover cobalt, bismuth, high purity aluminum, scandium flake, niobium and ferro niobium. The agency also issued information requests for rhenium, indium, vanadium pentoxide, heavy rare earth oxides and tungsten ores. Together, these moves show how US seeks critical minerals to grow stockpile breadth across aerospace, electronics and defense applications.

DLA tenders stretch market capacity for critical minerals

Market participants say the requested quantities exceed typical US annual production and import volumes. Traders expect that the DLA will need several years to accumulate the requested tonnages. Therefore, the five year contract horizon may still prove tight for niche markets like rhenium and heavy rare earths.

Suppliers also question whether a single vendor can realistically deliver some of the larger packages. Rhenium sellers, for example, doubt that one producer can meet a 40 tonne requirement. Primary US rhenium output remains much lower than that figure, even before considering other customer commitments.

The DLA uses firm fixed price, indefinite delivery and indefinite quantity contracts for most of these tenders. This structure gives the agency flexibility on timing while locking in price and supply commitments. However, it also favours integrated producers and large suppliers rather than mid sized traders and niche intermediaries.

Policy push and strategic mineral reserve reshape US supply chains

Recent legislation and executive orders give political backing as US seeks critical minerals to grow stockpile strength. The administration has directed the defense secretary to ensure robust stockpile coverage for key materials. In parallel, Congress has allocated several billion dollars to stockpile upgrades and broader critical mineral supply chain support.

New public private initiatives now aim to operationalise this funding on the ground. Volato Group and M2i Global plan to develop and operate the first US strategic mineral reserve. With support from federal agencies, the project could become a central node for storage, logistics and market signaling.

For miners and processors, these policies create opportunities but also raise compliance and performance expectations. Long term stockpile contracts may help justify new projects or expansions in critical minerals. Yet the high bar on quality, security and reporting will likely limit participation to well capitalised and technically strong players.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The DLA’s tender wave confirms that stockpiling has returned as a core tool of industrial strategy. For market participants, the key questions now centre on pricing discipline, vendor concentration and delivery risk across thin markets. Companies that anticipate these shifts and secure upstream options early will gain a strategic edge in the next supply squeeze.

JPMorgan critical minerals initiative puts security at the heart of Wall Street capital

JPMorgan

JPMorgan critical minerals initiative is putting national security at the center of a $1.5 trillion capital plan. The bank will deploy up to $10bn in equity and venture capital and scale lending to sectors tied to US security and resilience. As a result, the JPMorgan critical minerals initiative directly targets weak links in supply chains, energy systems and strategic technologies.

Critical minerals at the core of JPMorgan’s security push

The JPMorgan critical minerals initiative reflects growing concern over US dependence on foreign supplies. Jamie Dimon warned that the US has become too reliant on “unreliable sources” for critical minerals, products and manufacturing. This warning gained urgency after China tightened export controls on rare earth output, processing and foreign trade. Therefore, JPMorgan is positioning itself as a financial anchor for projects that can reduce this exposure.

The bank plans to steer up to $1.5 trillion over ten years into four priority sectors. These include supply chain and advanced manufacturing, defence and aerospace, energy independence and resilience, and frontier and strategic technologies. Within this framework, the JPMorgan critical minerals initiative will back mining, processing and magnet manufacturing assets that strengthen US control over rare earths and battery metals.

Financing the new critical minerals and magnet ecosystem

JPMorgan is already embedded in flagship US rare earth projects. It advised the US defense department on acquiring a 15pc stake in MP Materials, securing an NdPr offtake agreement with a price floor. It is also financing MP Materials’ second magnet plant, the “10X Facility” in Texas, which aims to close a key gap between ore and finished magnets. These deals show how the JPMorgan critical minerals initiative links public capital, industrial policy and private finance.

Meanwhile, the US Defense Logistics Agency is expanding its strategic stockpile of critical minerals. The DLA has issued tenders and RFIs for minerals where desired stockpile volumes exceed current US production and imports. As a result, projects that can deliver domestic antimony, cobalt, bismuth or high-purity aluminum gain a clearer demand signal. JPMorgan’s capital can then accelerate these projects from concept to bankable reality, tightening the loop between mining, processing and defense needs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This initiative confirms that critical minerals are no longer a niche ESG theme but a core asset class for security-driven capital. By backing magnets, processing and stockpiles, JPMorgan is effectively underwriting a new industrial architecture around metals. The real question now is whether other global lenders follow, or whether US projects gain a lasting funding advantage in the next decade of resource competition.

China Imposes Export Controls on Heavy Rare Earths in Retaliation to US Tariffs

China Rare Earths

New Legislation Strengthens Dual-Use Item Export Control Scheme

In a move likely aimed at countering US President Donald Trump’s recent tariffs, China has extended its export control measures to cover several medium and heavy rare earths. The new controls, announced on April 4, target elements such as samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium. These minerals are critical in various high-tech and defense applications, and their export restrictions will likely have significant geopolitical and market implications.

China’s Dual-Use Export Control Scheme

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasized that the materials affected by these new controls possess "dual-use" properties, which means they can be used for both civilian and military applications. Export controls on such items are considered a standard international practice. This move aligns with China’s enhanced dual-use item management scheme, which was bolstered by new legislation passed in October 2023. The new regulations require exporters to submit detailed documents confirming the end-user and the intended use of the items. Should the end-user or the intended use change, exporters are required to halt the shipment immediately.

While the export control scheme is part of a broader effort to regulate strategic materials, it has been widely viewed as a retaliatory response to the US’s 34% reciprocal tariffs, announced on April 2. In recent years, China has also placed export controls on other critical minerals like gallium, germanium, and graphite, in response to escalating tensions with the US and Western nations.

Strategic Implications and Market Reactions

China is a dominant player in the global rare earth market, accounting for over 90% of global supplies. The country’s total shipments of rare earths dropped by 3% in January-February 2024, compared to the same period the previous year, according to customs data. The US, recognizing its dependence on China for these materials, has taken steps to boost domestic production and diversify its supply sources, including funding initiatives in countries like Greenland, which has significant rare earth reserves.

Most market participants previously expected China to hold back on using rare earths as a "last card" in the trade war due to the strategic importance of these materials in many high-tech applications. However, China’s decision to implement these export controls highlights its readiness to leverage its position in the rare earth market. This policy shift is expected to further strain the rare earth supply chain and could result in higher prices for materials such as antimony and bismuth, which have already seen price surges following previous export restrictions.

US scandium oxide national stockpile move signals rising critical mineral urgency

US Defense Logistics Agency

The US scandium oxide national stockpile decision marks a major shift in Washington’s critical mineral strategy. The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) has added scandium oxide to the National Defense Stockpile and is now seeking multi-year supply contracts. This move embeds the US scandium oxide national stockpile firmly within defense planning for semiconductors, electronics and advanced alloys.

Rio Tinto anchors US scandium oxide national stockpile supply

Rio Tinto currently stands as the only North American supplier able to meet the US scandium oxide national stockpile requirements. The company produces high-purity scandium oxide from titanium dioxide waste streams at its RTIT Quebec Operations in Sorel-Tracy, Canada. As a result, the DLA’s request for information found Rio Tinto alone could commit scalable scandium oxide supply.

The agency issued a May RFI on scandium metal and received responses from four companies. However, only Rio Tinto confirmed both capability and availability to supply scandium oxide into the National Defense Stockpile. This underscores how fragile current supply chains are for a material vital to next-generation electronics and aerospace alloys.

Scandium joins wider US critical minerals stockpile push

The scandium oxide tender sits within a broader push to harden US critical mineral supply chains. In early September, the DLA issued tenders and RFIs covering cobalt, bismuth, high-purity aluminum, scandium flake, niobium and ferro-niobium. Together, these moves align the US scandium oxide national stockpile effort with a multi-metal resilience agenda.

Rio Tinto first produced commercial-scale high-purity scandium oxide at Sorel-Tracy in 2022. That milestone made it North America’s only scandium oxide producer and a natural anchor for DNS procurement. Going forward, the DLA’s “indefinite quantity” contracts over five years could help underwrite new capacity, but they also highlight concentrated supplier risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Bringing scandium oxide formally into the US National Defense Stockpile confirms its elevation from niche alloying element to strategic asset. The reliance on a single qualified North American producer underscores both progress and vulnerability in the current supply chain. Expect US policymakers to encourage additional scandium by-product and standalone projects if demand from defense and semiconductors continues to rise.

US Niobium Defense Stockpile Strengthened by $50mn GAM Contract

Global Advanced Metals

The US niobium defense stockpile is set for a major expansion under a new $50mn supply contract awarded to Global Advanced Metals (GAM). The five-year, fixed-price agreement with the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) covers up to 380,360lbs of niobium ingots for delivery to the Scotia Depot in New York. This move reinforces the US niobium defense stockpile at a time when Washington is accelerating efforts to secure critical minerals for advanced defense systems, aerospace components and high-performance alloys.

US niobium defense stockpile anchored by domestic production

The contract will see GAM produce niobium ingots at its Boyertown, Pennsylvania facility, anchoring the US niobium defense stockpile in domestic processing capability. This onshore production reduces exposure to geopolitical risk and supply disruptions from foreign sources. It also supports traceable, defense-grade quality standards important for superalloys, jet engines and advanced electronics.

In parallel, GAM has deepened its relationship with the US government through multiple awards. The company previously secured a $26.4mn award to produce niobium oxide and a separate five-year, fixed-price tantalum ingot contract worth up to $100mn. Together, these awards embed GAM at the core of US supply chains for niobium and tantalum, both on the US critical minerals list. As a result, the US niobium defense stockpile is increasingly backed by integrated tantalum and niobium capabilities within a single strategic supplier.

Critical minerals stockpile strategy widens beyond niobium

The DLA’s latest award fits into a broader push to expand US strategic reserves across a basket of critical minerals. Recent tenders and information requests have targeted antimony, cobalt, bismuth, high purity aluminum and scandium flake. This diversified approach recognises that modern defense platforms rely on complex material systems, not single metals. It also signals that niobium will sit alongside other critical inputs in a coordinated national stockpile strategy.

However, building a resilient US niobium defense stockpile will require long-term policy consistency and sustained funding beyond the current contract horizon. Fixed-price deals can stabilise budgeting but may compress margins if raw material costs rise. At the same time, capacity must scale in line with future demand from hypersonics, next-generation aircraft and power electronics. The latest GAM contract therefore looks like an important step, but not the final word, in US niobium security planning.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The GAM award underscores how quickly niobium has moved from a niche alloying element to a strategic pillar in US defense planning. By pairing niobium and tantalum contracts with broader stockpile tenders, Washington is quietly constructing a multi-metal buffer against future supply shocks. The next test will be whether parallel investments in mining, recycling and alloy R&D can keep pace with the Pentagon’s rising appetite for advanced materials.

Tajikistan Seeks Western Mining Partners to Unlock Critical Mineral Reserves

Tajikistan

The Central Asian nation aims to attract global investors for copper, lithium, and rare earth exploration.

Emerging Frontier for Critical Minerals

Tajikistan seeks western mining partners to unlock critical mineral reserves, including antimony, copper, and lithium. The country ranks third globally in antimony reserves and is expanding its interest to rare earths, cobalt, and bismuth. While Chinese firms have established a strong presence, Tajikistan now actively courts western junior miners and strategic partners. Vast Resources, a UK-based firm, is among the first European mining companies to sign agreements with the Tajik government. Officials emphasize low production costs, tax incentives, and abundant clean energy from hydropower as key advantages.

Geological and ESG Challenges Remain

However, Tajikistan faces major hurdles in developing its mining sector despite its mineral potential. Thousands of mineral occurrences remain unexplored, and much of the country’s geological mapping is outdated. Terrain obstacles and limited accessibility also complicate operations. Infrastructure upgrades are underway, supported by over $1bn in funding from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Yet transparency remains an issue, with Tajikistan ranked 164 out of 180 in the 2024 International Transparency Index. The U.S. has expressed interest in assisting, emphasizing the need for a transparent and stable investment environment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tajikistan's call for western mining partnerships comes at a time of intense competition for secure, diversified critical mineral supply chains. If infrastructure and ESG reforms advance, the country could emerge as a strategic node in the global non-ferrous metals landscape.

Korea Zinc germanium supply to Lockheed Martin signals new non-China source

Korea Zinc

Korea Zinc germanium supply to Lockheed Martin marks a strategic breakthrough. The Korea Zinc germanium supply will prioritize Lockheed Martin under a new MoU. As a result, Korea Zinc germanium supply strengthens allied access to a China-constrained material.

Korea Zinc will invest ₩140bn to add germanium at Onsan. The Ulsan plant will produce high-purity germanium dioxide equal to 10 t/yr. That output equals roughly 7–8pc of present global germanium production. The firm targets trial operations in 2027 and full output in early 2028.

China controls 68pc of global germanium production today. Beijing’s 2023 export controls tightened supply and spiked prices. Therefore, US and allied buyers are racing to secure diversified germanium sources.

Lockheed’s priority rights reshape critical minerals procurement

Lockheed will gain priority rights under the MoU framework. The parties will now negotiate a long-term offtake agreement. Priority access helps de-risk defense programs using infrared optics and semiconductors. It also aligns with US policies to localize sensitive supply chains.

Korea Zinc already ships other critical minerals to the US. The firm delivered 20t of antimony to the US in June. Its portfolio also includes iridium and bismuth for high-tech uses.

What 10 t/yr means for defense and photonics demand

Ten tonnes per year can meaningfully support advanced optics. Germanium enables thermal imaging, night vision, and satellite sensors. It also serves fiber-optic and semiconductor applications in data and 5G.

However, end-use demand remains concentrated and quality-sensitive. High-purity germanium dioxide must meet tight infrared specifications. As a result, early 2027 trials will be critical to qualify volumes. Successful qualification would anchor multi-year defense procurement planning.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal is small in tonnage but large in signal value. If Onsan meets purity and schedule, expect copycat agreements across allied OEMs. Watch pricing, permit milestones, and wafer-grade yields as leading indicators.

Nyrstar produces first antimony at South Australia plant as non-China supply grows

Nyrstar

Nyrstar produces first antimony at South Australia plant, marking a new step for non-China antimony supply. Nyrstar, owned by Trafigura, produced its first antimony metal at the Port Pirie pilot facility. Nyrstar produces first antimony at South Australia plant with exports expected in the first half of next year. Therefore, buyers tracking antimony supply outside China now have a new potential source.

Nyrstar aims to reach 2,000 tonnes per year of antimony output by the end of next year. Meanwhile, the company says the site could reach 5,000 tonnes per year by 2028 with further upgrade investment. The pilot plant relies on Port Pirie’s 160,000 t/yr lead smelter, where antimony emerges as a by-product. As a result, operational stability at the lead circuit will shape antimony availability and quality.

Port Pirie financing links industrial rescue funding and export credit support

Australia provided an $87mn rescue package in August for two smelters, including Port Pirie. The support followed a period of weaker prices and financial pressure on operations. Meanwhile, Export Finance Australia issued a non-binding conditional support letter for the pilot plant. That letter followed the US–Australia critical minerals deal and still depends on commercial terms and due diligence. Therefore, Nyrstar produces first antimony at South Australia plant while it builds a financing bridge to scale.

This structure shows how critical mineral policy is shifting toward existing industrial assets. It also shows how by-product metals can scale faster than greenfield mines. However, the ramp still needs capital discipline and clear product qualification. As a result, pilot performance metrics will matter as much as headline capacity.

Antimony prices stay elevated as new capacity emerges outside China

Antimony prices surged to record levels this year after shortages and China’s export controls tightened supply. Prices reached about $60,400–61,500 per tonne on a Rotterdam basis in June. Meanwhile, prices fell around 31% to $41,000–43,000 per tonne by 18 November. The market expects further easing as more smelting capacity starts outside China. However, prices remain far above the 10-year average of $11,533 per tonne, so supply security still carries a premium.

Nyrstar is also evaluating production of bismuth and tellurium at the site. China added both materials to its export-controlled dual-use list earlier this year. Therefore, Port Pirie could evolve from an antimony pilot into a broader critical metals platform if upgrades proceed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

By-product antimony can scale quickly, but it depends on lead smelter uptime and feed chemistry. Meanwhile, price declines may cool investment appetite, even as security concerns rise. Therefore, Port Pirie’s real value will be reliable tonnes with verified specifications, not peak-nameplate targets.

Nyrstar Port Pirie Antimony Shipment Marks a Strategic Step for Australia

Nyrstar

Nyrstar Port Pirie antimony shipment marks an important milestone for Australia’s critical metals ambitions. The Trafigura-owned group exported its first antimony metal shipment from the Port Pirie pilot plant in South Australia. The initial cargo was small at 1t, but the strategic meaning is much larger. As a result, Nyrstar Port Pirie antimony shipment signals that Australia is moving beyond mining into refined critical metals production.

This matters because Port Pirie is the only producer of antimony metal in Australia. Antimony first came out of the plant in November as a by-product of its 160,000 t/yr lead smelting system. That gives the site a unique role in regional supply security. Therefore, Nyrstar Port Pirie antimony shipment is not just a commercial export. It is a proof point for Australia antimony production.

The destination profile also matters. The first shipment went to a domestic Australian manufacturer, but future cargoes will head to Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the US. That broad customer reach shows the project is already being positioned as part of a wider allied supply chain. Consequently, non-Chinese antimony supply is becoming more tangible through Port Pirie.

Australia Antimony Production Gains Strategic Relevance

Australia antimony production has become more important as global buyers look for supply outside China. Export controls from China helped drive antimony prices to record highs in 2025. Prices have since fallen sharply, but they still remain well above long-term averages. As a result, new antimony supply outside China still carries strategic weight.

Port Pirie is aiming for 2,000 t/yr of antimony capacity by the end of this year. With further upgrades, the site could expand to 5,000 t/yr by 2028. That is meaningful for a market where refined antimony capacity remains concentrated. Therefore, Nyrstar Port Pirie antimony shipment may become the first step in a much larger supply expansion.

The project also shows why smelting matters. Mining alone does not guarantee supply security if refining stays concentrated elsewhere. Port Pirie gives Australia more control over conversion into finished metal. Meanwhile, it also strengthens the case for investing in local metallurgical infrastructure.

Strategic Metals Refining Could Expand Beyond Antimony

Strategic metals refining at Port Pirie may not stop with antimony. Trafigura is also evaluating the site’s potential to produce bismuth and tellurium. Both metals have faced export controls from China since February 2025. That makes the plant’s optionality more important than a single-metal story.

This wider angle is significant for industrial policy. Governments supported Port Pirie last year with an A$87mn rescue package tied to zinc and lead smelting pressures. That support now looks more strategic in hindsight. As a result, Nyrstar Port Pirie antimony shipment shows how legacy smelters can be repositioned for critical minerals relevance.

The broader lesson is clear. Strategic metals refining is becoming just as important as resource ownership. Countries that can smelt, refine, and convert specialty metals will hold more value in future supply chains. Therefore, Port Pirie may become one of Australia’s more important industrial assets if the expansion continues.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This first shipment matters because it proves that Australia can move up the value chain in antimony. The real story is not the first tonne. It is that Port Pirie now has a credible path toward becoming a strategic non-Chinese refining hub for multiple critical metals.

Trafigura Critical Minerals Loan Strengthens Germany’s Raw Materials Security

Trafigura

Trafigura critical minerals loan support from the German government marks another major step in Europe’s effort to secure strategic raw materials. The $2.1bn, five-year agreement is designed to support supplies for Germany’s industrial, energy, and technology sectors at a time when critical minerals are becoming central to economic security.

The loan is guaranteed through Germany’s export credit agency Euler Hermes and co-arranged by Commerzbank. A consortium of eight lenders financed the package. This structure shows how governments are increasingly using credit guarantees to support supply access, not only domestic production.

Trafigura critical minerals loan financing also reflects Germany’s growing reliance on public-private supply frameworks. The company previously secured an $800mn Germany-backed loan in 2022 to supply refined non-ferrous metals and a $3bn loan the same year to support gas supply. The latest agreement shifts the focus toward minerals needed for the green transition, defence, and advanced manufacturing.

Germany Deepens State-Backed Support for Critical Minerals Supply

Germany is treating critical minerals supply as an industrial resilience issue. The new loan does not identify specific minerals or projects, but the EU’s critical raw materials list includes rare earths, gallium, germanium, lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper. These materials are essential for batteries, semiconductors, power systems, defence applications, and high-performance manufacturing.

The financing also shows how Europe is responding to supply concentration risk. Many critical minerals are mined, refined, or processed in limited jurisdictions. As a result, industrial buyers are exposed not only to price volatility, but also to export controls, geopolitical disruption, and refining bottlenecks.

Trafigura critical minerals loan support gives Germany a mechanism to strengthen access through one of the world’s largest commodity trading networks. For German manufacturers, this matters because access to raw materials can determine competitiveness in electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, electronics, aerospace, and industrial technology.

Processing Capacity Becomes the Strategic Battleground

Trafigura has repeatedly argued that governments must support smelting and refining capacity if they want resilient critical minerals supply chains. This is a key point because supply security does not end at mining. Many strategic materials become usable only after complex refining, by-product recovery, and metallurgical processing.

Nyrstar, Trafigura’s metals subsidiary, is becoming an important part of that strategy. The company is expanding processing capacity for by-products such as antimony, germanium, indium, and bismuth. These materials often come from existing metallurgical circuits, making legacy smelters strategically valuable in the critical minerals economy.

Nyrstar’s first shipments of Australian-produced antimony metal from its Port Pirie plant highlight this approach. Instead of waiting for entirely new mines and refineries, Trafigura is using existing infrastructure to scale output of materials with high strategic value. That model could become increasingly important as Europe and allied economies race to reduce exposure to concentrated supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This loan shows that critical minerals security is moving from policy language into balance-sheet-backed industrial action. The winners will be companies that control logistics, refining knowledge, and by-product recovery capacity, not only mine ownership.