European zinc premiums stay stable as LME stocks decline

European Zinc

European zinc premiums remained stable this week even as LME stocks fell further and demand stayed muted. Market participants report that European zinc premiums for special high-grade (SHG) material are caught between weak spot consumption and tightening warehouse inventories. As a result, the regional zinc market is balanced more by opposing forces than by any clear bullish or bearish trend.

Weak demand offsets tightening LME zinc stocks

Spot demand for SHG zinc in Europe remains subdued as industrial activity stays soft across core consuming sectors. However, lower buying interest has prevented European zinc premiums from reacting more strongly to the latest drawdown in exchange inventories. Buyers feel little urgency to chase units, even as visible stocks trend lower.

At the same time, LME three-month zinc prices show only modest movement. Prices settled at $2,930/t, down just 0.71pc week on week, underlining the market’s cautious tone. Meanwhile, LME zinc stocks fell another 6.63pc to 46,825t, tightening the buffer of readily available metal. Therefore, investors and physical traders are watching whether continued stock draws eventually push European zinc premiums higher if demand recovers.

New South African copper-zinc supply on the horizon

Supply-side developments also matter for long-term zinc balance. Australian developer Orion Minerals recently signed a non-binding term sheet with Glencore for up to $250mn in financing. The funds will support development of the Prieska copper-zinc mine in South Africa’s Northern Cape, alongside long-term concentrate offtake.

Prieska holds 31mn t grading 1.2pc copper and 3.6pc zinc, with a planned two-phase mine life of 13.2 years. Steady-state output is targeted at 65,000 t/yr of zinc and 30,000 t/yr of copper, which will add a meaningful new stream of concentrates into global flows once in production. As a result, prospective new supply such as Prieska could eventually ease tightness in refined markets and influence future European zinc premiums.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s zinc market is in a stand-off between demand weakness and steadily falling LME inventories. The next decisive move in European zinc premiums will likely depend on whether macro demand recovers first or new concentrate supply, like Prieska, arrives fast enough to cap any tightening. For now, physical players are managing exposure carefully, treating stability as temporary rather than structural.

Garpenberg Zinc Mine Halt Adds Fresh Pressure to European Zinc Supply

Garpenberg Zinc

The Garpenberg zinc mine halt has added another supply risk to an already tight zinc concentrate market. Boliden suspended mine production at the Swedish operation after seismic activity caused a rockfall and pressure wave on 14 March.

Boliden said seismic activity is normal at Garpenberg, but conditions rose to abnormally high levels late on 14 March. The company evacuated the mine for safety reasons, stopped mining during the evacuation, and suspended concentrator production on 15 March.

The incident also affected workers underground. A pressure wave from the rockfall hit four employees in nearby locations, making safety inspections the immediate priority before any restart.

Garpenberg Disruption Hits a Major European Zinc Asset

Garpenberg is one of Boliden’s most important base metals operations. The mine produced 101,780 tonnes of zinc last year, alongside 38,692 tonnes of lead and 735 tonnes of copper.

That scale makes the Garpenberg zinc mine important for European concentrate availability. Any extended outage could tighten regional feedstock supply and increase pressure on smelters already managing weak treatment charges.

Boliden said output will restart gradually once inspections of infrastructure and underground workings are complete. However, the company has not set a timeframe for resuming production, leaving buyers exposed to uncertainty.

Zinc Concentrate Market Faces Another Supply Constraint

The Garpenberg zinc mine halt comes at a sensitive moment for the zinc market. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelters are competing for limited feedstock while treatment charges stay low.

A temporary disruption at Garpenberg may not change the global balance alone. However, it matters because zinc smelters are already operating in a constrained raw material environment.

The outage also highlights the value of integrated mining and smelting systems. Boliden usually benefits from internal concentrate supply, but even integrated producers remain exposed when mine-level disruptions interrupt feed flows.

For European zinc consumers, the key issue is duration. A short safety-related stoppage would be manageable, but a longer suspension could reinforce concentrate tightness and add pressure to refined zinc supply planning.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Garpenberg shows how fragile zinc supply has become when even operational safety events can carry market significance. In a low-TC environment, every meaningful mine disruption strengthens the advantage of producers with diversified feed sources.

Boliden Garpenberg Zinc Mine to Run at 30% Capacity After Seismic Damage

Boliden, Zn mine

Boliden Garpenberg zinc mine output will be sharply reduced after abnormal seismic activity damaged key parts of the Swedish operation. Boliden said it would restart production in the second quarter at about 30% of guided capacity.

The mine was halted on 15 March after seismic activity caused a rockfall and pressure wave. Production is expected to restart at around 100,000 t/month, but the disruption will continue until further notice.

Boliden Garpenberg zinc mine production is important for European zinc supply because Garpenberg is one of the region’s key underground zinc assets. A prolonged reduction could tighten concentrate availability and increase attention on mine stability, grade control, and supply reliability.

Lappberget Damage Limits Near-Term Production Recovery

The main operational issue is damage to the upper parts of the Lappberget orebody. This area accounts for around 70% of Garpenberg’s production, making the seismic event highly material for Boliden’s zinc output.

Boliden said production in the most affected part of the mine is not expected to resume this year. Inspections are still ongoing, and the company will operate Garpenberg at reduced capacity until it has clearer visibility on safety and mining conditions.

The lower output profile also comes with a slight expected deterioration in average zinc grade. This means the disruption affects not only tonnage but also the quality and efficiency of mined ore.

European Zinc Market Faces Fresh Supply Risk

Boliden Garpenberg zinc mine guidance now points to output running at just 30% of the mine’s 3.7mn t/yr guided capacity. This creates a meaningful supply risk for European zinc concentrate flows, especially if the reduced operating rate lasts longer than expected.

The disruption also highlights the vulnerability of underground mining operations to seismic instability. Even profitable and well-established mines can face sudden production constraints when access to major orebodies is restricted.

For zinc buyers and smelters, the key issue will be how long Garpenberg remains limited and whether alternative concentrate supply can offset the shortfall. The market will also watch for updates on inspections, rehabilitation work, and any revised production guidance from Boliden.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Garpenberg’s setback shows that mine safety and geotechnical risk can quickly become supply-chain issues. For Europe’s zinc market, the disruption adds another reminder that regional metal security depends on operational resilience, not only reserve size.

Boliden Garpenberg Zinc Mine Investment Strengthens Long-Term European Zinc Supply

Boliden

Boliden Garpenberg zinc mine investment plans will reinforce one of Europe’s most important zinc supply assets beyond 2030. The Sweden-based metals group will invest SKr4 billion, or about $430 million, in a new hoisting system at Garpenberg to support continued mining of newly identified resources.

The six-year project is designed to sustain production at around 4.5 million tonnes per year. Recent exploration has expanded Garpenberg’s mineral resources and reserves, creating the need for new infrastructure to reach deeper and newly discovered zones.

Boliden Garpenberg zinc mine development matters because Europe needs stable domestic sources of zinc concentrates. Zinc remains essential for galvanizing steel, infrastructure, automotive production, construction, and renewable energy equipment.

Garpenberg Infrastructure Upgrade Supports Deeper Zinc Mining

The new hoisting system will give Boliden better access to deeper ore zones and help protect long-term output from Garpenberg. The mine already holds an environmental permit for up to 4.5 million tonnes per year, although that permit remains under appeal.

The investment could also create a foundation for future expansion. However, Boliden said any further growth would depend on major additional investments and permitting progress.

The project comes as Garpenberg deals with a near-term production disruption. A seismic event and related rockfall activity halted production on 14 March, causing four lost production days so far. Infrastructure inspections have started, and the shutdown is significant because Garpenberg is Boliden’s most profitable mine.

Odda Expansion and Ronnskar Project Deepen Boliden’s Zinc and Smelting Strategy

Boliden’s zinc strategy also includes the long-delayed Odda zinc smelter expansion in Norway. The 150,000 tonne per year expansion is expected to take its first feed within about five days, with first production to follow shortly after.

The Odda zinc smelter expansion is strategically important because it strengthens Europe’s refined zinc capacity. The roaster and acid plant are now in the final stages of hot commissioning after a difficult project cycle.

Boliden is also investing SKr1.5 billion in a demonstration plant for a new cement replacement product at Ronnskar in Sweden. Construction is expected to start in the second half of 2026, with ramp-up in the first half of 2029 and planned capacity of 280,000 tonnes per year. The process is designed to improve metals recovery and move Boliden closer to waste-free smelting.

At Ronnskar, copper cathode capacity is around 230,000 tonnes per year, and ramp-up is planned for the final quarter of this year. Meanwhile, Boliden expects higher copper grades at Aitik and Kevitsa by 2034, along with improved nickel grades at Kevitsa. However, further Kevitsa expansion remains paused because low nickel prices, higher taxes, and tougher environmental rules have weakened the investment case.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Boliden Garpenberg zinc mine investment shows that European metals security depends as much on mine infrastructure as on new discoveries. The Odda and Ronnskar updates also show Boliden’s wider strategy: secure concentrates, expand refined metal capacity, and reduce waste across the smelting chain.

Global Refined Zinc Market Stays in Deficit as Demand Outpaces Production

Zinc

Global refined zinc market conditions remained tight in 2025 as consumption continued to exceed production, despite stronger mine output and higher refined metal supply. The deficit narrowed to 33,000t from 69,000t in 2024, but the market still failed to return to the 252,000t surplus recorded in 2023.

The global refined zinc market deficit shows that recovering production has not fully restored balance. Mine supply increased across several major producing regions, but refined demand also continued to grow, led by China and Europe. This kept the zinc value chain under pressure even as concentrate availability improved.

The global refined zinc market also reflected a shift in Chinese trade flows. China imported significantly more zinc contained in concentrates, while refined zinc imports dropped sharply. This suggests stronger reliance on domestic smelting and refining capacity rather than external refined metal supply.

Mine Supply Recovery Improves Concentrate Availability

Global zinc mine production rose by 5.4pc to 12.59mn t in 2025, supported by gains in Australia, China, India, Iran, Peru, South Africa, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. China remained the largest producer, with output rising 2.8pc to 4.07mn t.

Peru recorded one of the strongest increases, with zinc mine output rising 18.6pc to 1.51mn t. Australian output also increased by 2.4pc to 1.13mn t. These gains helped offset declines in the US and Kazakhstan, where production fell by 11.2pc and 5.2pc respectively.

Europe delivered a significant mine-side recovery, with output rising 20.1pc to 1.08mn t. Higher production at the Vares operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, new capacity in Russia, and the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine supported the increase. This recovery improved regional concentrate supply after a difficult period for European zinc mining.

Refined Zinc Demand Keeps Market Balance Tight

World refined zinc output rose by 2.1pc to 13.83mn t in 2025, mainly supported by higher production in China and Europe. Chinese refined output increased by 6.1pc to 7mn t, while European production rose by 2.7pc to 2.17mn t.

Demand still slightly exceeded supply. Global refined zinc consumption rose by 1.9pc to 13.86mn t, with Chinese demand increasing by 1.9pc to 7.05mn t. European demand rose by 3.5pc to 1.98mn t, reinforcing the market’s underlying strength despite uneven industrial conditions.

China’s import structure highlights the changing zinc supply chain. Imports of zinc contained in concentrates rose by 29.8pc to 2.58mn t, while refined zinc imports fell by 51.1pc to 210,000t. This points to stronger concentrate pull from Chinese smelters and reduced dependence on imported refined zinc.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The zinc market is no longer in a deep deficit, but it remains structurally tight enough to keep supply discipline important. The key signal is China’s rising concentrate imports, which show that smelting capacity and raw material access are becoming more important than refined metal trade alone.

Zinc Prices Set to Drop in 2025 Due to Increased Supply and Weak Demand

McArthur River Mining

Zinc prices are expected to decline in 2025, as global supply improves and demand remains subdued in key consumption sectors, particularly in the construction and automotive industries. This shift comes after a strong price performance in 2024, driven by tight supply conditions and mining disruptions.

Price Performance in 2024

Zinc has been one of the standout performers on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in 2024, with prices hovering above $3,000 per ton in December, compared to $2,537 per ton in January. This 6% increase from the previous year can be largely attributed to supply disruptions at key mines. Notable interruptions included Glencore's McArthur River mine in Australia, which halted operations in March due to extreme rainfall, and MMG’s Dugald River mine in China, which was placed on care and maintenance during Q3.

The zinc market faced a 164,000-ton deficit in 2024, primarily due to reduced production from mines like Boliden's Tara mine in Ireland and Almina's Aljustrel mine in Portugal. However, supply conditions are expected to shift in 2025, leading to a bearish outlook for zinc prices.

Improved Supply Forecast for 2025

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasts a surplus of 148,000 tons in 2025 as new mines and production ramps up globally. One major development contributing to this surplus is the reopening of Ivanhoe Mines' Kipushi mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to produce 278,000 tons per year over its first five years. Kipushi will become Africa's largest zinc mine and the fourth-largest globally.

In addition, European production is expected to rise, with increased output from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Portugal, and the reopening of Tara operations in Ireland. Russia's zinc production is also set to grow, supported by the newly opened Ozerneoye plant. Other key regions, including Australia, Canada, China, Japan, the Netherlands, and Norway, are expected to see increased concentrate supply, especially in the first quarter of 2025. According to trading firm Macquarie, global mined supply is projected to grow by 5.8% in 2025, with around 570,000 tons of zinc in new project approvals.

Weak Demand Pressures Zinc Prices

While supply is set to increase, demand growth for zinc is expected to remain weak, especially in the construction and automotive sectors, which together account for a significant portion of global zinc consumption. Carbon steel demand has fallen in 2024, driven by weakness in the construction sector, particularly in China. European manufacturing also remains sluggish, with the automobile sector facing significant challenges. Volkswagen, for instance, has announced plans to close several plants and lay off thousands of employees in response to falling sales and weak demand for cars.

Macquarie predicts a modest 1.7% growth in global refined zinc demand in 2025, a revision down from the previously anticipated 2.5% growth rate. The uncertainty surrounding potential new U.S. tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump's administration adds another layer of risk, particularly regarding the strength of the U.S. dollar and global trade dynamics.

Zinc Price Outlook for 2025

Given the expected supply surplus and the persistent demand lag, analysts are generally bearish on zinc prices for 2025. The World Bank and Fitch Ratings expect zinc prices to average $2,600 per ton in 2025, with further declines to $2,500 per ton by 2026. Macquarie is similarly forecasting a drop to $2,650 per ton in 2025, followed by a decline to $2,450 per ton in 2026. These price drops reflect the anticipated market surplus and continued weak demand.

Conclusion

As zinc supply increases and demand struggles to pick up, the market is expected to experience price declines in 2025. The key factors driving this change include the reopening of major mines, such as Kipushi, and continued challenges in major zinc-consuming sectors like construction and automotive manufacturing. While supply-side factors are positive, weak demand and potential trade uncertainties are expected to put downward pressure on zinc prices in the years to come.

Global refined zinc market surplus set to widen through 2026

Zinc

The global refined zinc market surplus is forecast to widen sharply as supply growth outpaces a modest demand recovery. According to ILZSG projections, refined zinc will move from an 85,000t surplus in 2025 to a 271,000t surplus in 2026. As a result, the global refined zinc market surplus will increasingly shape treatment charges, pricing power and smelter utilisation, especially outside China. The refined zinc balance already showed a 47,000t surplus in the first half of this year, confirming the shift from earlier tightness.

However, demand for refined zinc is still expected to grow, even under pressure from weak construction and patchy industrial activity. ILZSG forecasts refined zinc use to rise by 1.1pc to 13.71mn t in 2025, led by a 1.3pc increase in China on stronger vehicle output. Meanwhile, European demand should finally stabilise, rising by 0.7pc after three years of contraction, with France, Germany, Norway and Poland offsetting declines in Italy and Russia. Emerging markets including India, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and Vietnam will also support consumption, even as Brazil and South Korea lag.

Supply expansion drives global refined zinc market surplus

The global refined zinc market surplus is driven primarily by a clear upturn in mine and smelter supply. ILZSG expects zinc mine production to rise by 4.6pc to 12.51mn t in 2025, with 5pc growth outside China. Therefore, higher output from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ireland, Portugal, Russia and Sweden joins gains in China, South Africa, Peru and the DRC. Further mine growth in 2026 will be underpinned by the reopening of Aljustrel in Portugal and higher production in Australia, Brazil, the DRC and China.

At the smelter level, refined zinc output is forecast to rise by 2.7pc to 13.8mn t in 2025, then by 2.4pc to 14.13mn t in 2026. The biggest driver is China, where new capacity is being commissioned and is expected to lift output by 6.2pc in 2025. Meanwhile, European production receives a structural boost from Boliden’s 150,000 t/yr expansion at the Odda smelter in Norway. These increases will outweigh declines in Italy, Japan, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and South Korea, locking in the global refined zinc market surplus unless demand surprises to the upside.

Refined lead market also tips into surplus

The surplus story extends beyond zinc, with refined lead also moving into a looser balance. ILZSG projects refined lead supply to exceed demand by 91,000t in 2025 and 102,000t in 2026. Demand for refined lead is still expected to rise by 1.8pc this year to 13.25mn t, and by 0.9pc to 13.37mn t in 2026, driven mainly by Europe, Vietnam and the US. However, supply will grow faster, with refined lead output seen rising by 2pc to 13.34mn t in 2025 and by 1pc to 13.47mn t in 2026, supported particularly by Brazil and India. As a result, both zinc and lead markets are heading into a multi-year period of oversupply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The global refined zinc market surplus projected for 2025–26 signals a prolonged phase of buyer’s market dynamics in galvanising and alloy segments. Smelters with high energy costs or weaker integration into mine supply will face the greatest margin pressure as treatment terms and premiums adjust. For lead, surpluses underline the importance of battery recycling economics and regional policy support, especially as EV and energy storage value chains reshape traditional lead-acid demand.

Global Refined Zinc Market Slips into Deficit in 2024, Reports ILZSG

ILZSG

Declining Supply Triggers Market Deficit Despite Steady Demand

The global refined zinc market fell into a deficit of 62,000 tonnes in 2024, as supply dropped while demand remained stable, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). This marks a significant change from the previous year, when the zinc market recorded a surplus of 310,000 tonnes.

Zinc Mine Output Drops Across Key Regions

Global mined zinc output declined by 2.8% year-on-year to 11.89 million tonnes. Major contributing factors included a sharp 31.5% drop in Canada, a 1.5% decrease in China, and a 13.5% fall in Peru due to lower production at the Antamina mine. European zinc mining also slipped by 9.7%, mainly from Ireland and Poland. However, higher output in Bolivia, Mexico, and the Democratic Republic of Congo—where Ivanhoe Mines launched the Kipushi mine in June—helped offset these declines.

Refined Zinc Production and Use Trends

Refined zinc production dropped 2.6% in 2024, reaching 13.55 million tonnes. The fall was primarily due to limited concentrate availability and production cuts in China, Japan, South Korea, and Canada. Some recovery was seen as France, India, and Germany increased their output, especially with the Nordenham smelter resuming operations in March. Meanwhile, global refined zinc consumption edged up by 0.1%, driven by higher demand in Brazil, India, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey, and Vietnam. Consumption declined in China, Europe, and the US. Notably, China’s imports of zinc in concentrate form also fell by 13.1% to 1.96 million tonnes. In December alone, refined zinc use outpaced production, creating a monthly deficit of 41,100 tonnes.

Refined zinc market surplus narrows sharply in 1H 2025

Zinc Mine

The Refined zinc market surplus narrowed dramatically in the first half of 2025. The Refined zinc market surplus fell to 47,000t, down 81% year on year. This Refined zinc market surplus reflects stronger demand and constrained smelting output.

Supply moves diverge between mines and smelters

Global mined zinc output increased by 6.3% to 6.17mn t. Australia, China, Mexico, Peru, South Africa, and the DRC led gains. Europe also grew on Vares, Ozernoye, and Tara’s restart. However, refined zinc production fell by 2.1% to 6.64mn t. Declines in Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Japan weighed on output. Toho Zinc’s Anakka closure reduced Japanese supply. Meanwhile, Korea’s Seokpo smelter suspension tightened Asia’s refined balance. Europe partly offset the losses as Boliden expanded Norway’s Odda smelter.

End-use demand steadies as trade flows shift

Global zinc consumption edged up 0.9% to 6.60mn t. China, India, and Europe supported galvanizing demand. Brazil and the US softened. China’s zinc concentrate imports fell 48.3% to 1.22mn t. Therefore, domestic mined and recycled supply likely substituted imports.

Prices responded to tightening fundamentals. LME zinc averaged $2,772.60/t in 1H 2025, up 3.7% year on year. The global refined lead market also posted a small surplus. Refined lead production reached 6.57mn t versus consumption of 6.55mn t. As a result, lead showed a 21,000t surplus.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zinc’s surplus compression signals a market closer to balance than headlines imply. Persistent smelter constraints, modest demand growth, and evolving Chinese import patterns support a firmer floor. Watch European smelter run-rates, Seokpo’s status, and construction demand in India for the next leg.

Global Refined Zinc Market Set for Surplus in 2025: ILZSG

Zinc

Zinc and Lead Supply to Outpace Demand Amid Economic Challenges

The global refined zinc market will shift into surplus in 2025, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). The organization projects a surplus of 93,000t next year, marking a notable shift in market dynamics.

Global demand for refined zinc is forecast to grow by 1% year-on-year, reaching 13.64 million tonnes in 2025. China, the largest consumer, will see a modest 0.9% increase in usage after a 1.9% decline last year. Demand is also expected to rise in Brazil, India, and Turkey, although South Korea's consumption will fall. Nevertheless, global economic uncertainty, particularly related to US trade policies, could weigh on overall demand growth.

Zinc and Lead Supply to Expand Significantly

On the supply side, global zinc mine production is forecast to rise by 4.3% to 12.43 million tonnes in 2025. Output gains are expected in Australia, China, Mexico, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Peru. European mine production will also rebound by 18.3%, driven by recoveries in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine.

Global refined zinc metal output is set to increase by 1.8%, reaching 13.73 million tonnes. Higher concentrate availability will support this growth, particularly from China and Norway, where Boliden has expanded its Odda smelter capacity by 150,000 t/yr. However, closures at Glencore’s Portovesme smelter in Italy and Toho Zinc’s Anakka facility in Japan will partially offset these gains.

Meanwhile, ILZSG projects that refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000t in 2025. Refined lead demand is set to grow by 1.5% to 13.19 million tonnes, while supply will expand by 1.9% to 13.27 million tonnes, mainly driven by production increases in China, India, Mexico, and the United States.

The zinc and lead markets are poised for critical adjustments as new supply streams emerge against a backdrop of geopolitical and economic headwinds.

Lundin Mining Sells Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan Mines to Boliden for $1.52bn

Lundin Mining

Canada-based Lundin Mining announced the sale of its two major European mining operations — Neves-Corvo in Portugal and Zinkgruvan in Sweden — to Swedish Boliden for a total of $1.52 billion. The deal, which is expected to close by mid-2025, will represent Lundin’s complete exit from its operating assets in Europe. The company plans to use the proceeds from this sale to strengthen its balance sheet and fuel its growth strategy in South America.

Key Details of the Deal

The acquisition will significantly boost Boliden’s mining and smelting capacity. Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan produced a combined total of 185,000 tonnes of zinc concentrate and 38,000 tonnes of copper concentrate in 2023. With this acquisition, Boliden anticipates a sharp increase in its output, especially in zinc, which is expected to rise to 70% of its zinc smelting capacity (up from 35%). For copper, Boliden forecasts an increase in concentrate production to 40% of its copper smelting capacity, from 30%, based on 2023 figures.

In 2023, Neves-Corvo produced 108,812 tonnes of zinc and 33,823 tonnes of copper, while Zinkgruvan produced 76,349 tonnes of zinc and 4,434 tonnes of copper, both in concentrate. This expansion aligns with Boliden's ongoing efforts to boost its mining capabilities in Europe and provide a stronger foundation for its future operations.

Boliden’s Expanding Operations

Following the completion of the transaction, Boliden will operate a total of seven mining areas and five smelters, further solidifying its position as a key player in the European metals market. This acquisition will also contribute to the company’s growing portfolio of critical base metals, including zinc and copper, which are essential for various industrial applications, including the green energy transition.

The Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan mines come with on-site processing facilities, which will enable Boliden to efficiently manage the mining and refining of these crucial metals.

Lundin’s Strategic Shift

For Lundin Mining, the sale marks a strategic shift toward focusing its operations on high-growth regions, particularly in South America, where the company has substantial mining interests. By exiting Europe, Lundin aims to optimize its portfolio and concentrate resources on projects that offer the highest potential for expansion and value creation.

Conclusion

The $1.52 billion deal between Lundin Mining and Boliden highlights the growing consolidation in the mining sector and underscores the importance of strategic acquisitions to secure long-term growth. For Boliden, the acquisition of Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan will enhance its production capacity, positioning the company to meet rising global demand for zinc and copper. Meanwhile, Lundin Mining is set to reorient its focus on South American mining assets, setting the stage for future growth.

Boliden 2026 mining outlook signals higher Zn and Cu grades across Europe

Boliden

Boliden 2026 mining outlook points to better ore grades and steady growth in key hubs. The company plans SKr15bn in 2026 capex, down SKr500mn from 2025. Meanwhile, Boliden 2026 mining outlook highlights higher throughput and improving zinc and copper grades.

Boliden expects stronger grade performance at several mines in Sweden, Finland, Ireland, and Portugal. As a result, European base metals supply could look more resilient in 2026. However, planned maintenance and delayed commissioning will still weigh on near-term output timing.

Higher grades support mine plans at Aitik, Garpenberg, Kevitsa, and Tara

Aitik should lift copper grades in the second half of 2026, pushing the full-year average to 0.18%. The site also targets 41mn tonnes milled, up from 40mn tonnes in 2025. Therefore, Boliden copper grades 2026 could improve even with only modest tonnage growth.

Garpenberg secured an expanded environmental permit, which supports 3.7mn tonnes of throughput in 2026. Zinc grades there should reach 2.9%, up on operational momentum. Meanwhile, Kevitsa should raise copper grades to 0.24% in 2026 while holding nickel grades at 0.17%.

Tara in Ireland should mill 1.8mn tonnes at 5.6% zinc in 2026, up from 1.6mn tonnes at 5.5% in 2025. The mine targets 2.2mn tonnes per year by 2028. As a result, Boliden zinc grades 2026 become a key metric for European concentrates balance.

Portfolio integration steadies volumes as smelter projects progress

Boliden expects stable long-run milling at Somincor in Portugal and Zinkgruvan in Sweden after buying the mines from Lundin Mining. Somincor guides 1.7% copper at 2.3mn tonnes milled and 6.7% zinc at 2.2mn tonnes milled. Zinkgruvan guides 2% copper on 300,000 tonnes milled and 7% zinc on 1.1mn tonnes milled.

The Odda expansion in Norway slipped by two months because of technical issues. First feed should now arrive in the first quarter rather than late December. Meanwhile, the new tankhouse ramp-up at Rönnskär in Sweden should progress in the second half of 2026, with 60% already complete.

Boliden budgets SKr450mn for 2026 maintenance, implying an operating profit hit of about SKr450mn. That loss estimate improves from SKr500mn expected for 2025. Therefore, the 2026 plan pairs better grades with tighter downtime control.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Boliden 2026 mining outlook reads like a grade-led earnings lever, not a volume-led one. However, delayed expansions and maintenance still shape shipment timing and treatment-charge exposure. Watch copper cathode ramp progress and zinc grade delivery against guidance.

Boliden Boosts Zinc Output with Odda Smelter Expansion in Norway

Boliden

Expansion lifts Odda capacity by 75%, reinforcing Boliden’s position in Europe’s zinc market

Swedish mining giant Boliden has completed a major expansion at its Odda zinc smelter in Norway, aiming to boost its zinc output by 75%. This strategic move positions Odda as Europe’s second-largest zinc smelter with a new annual capacity of 350,000 tonnes, up from 200,000 tonnes.

The revamped facility includes a new roasting furnace, a modern sulphuric acid plant, a new tankhouse, and upgraded leaching and purification systems. Boliden emphasized that the enhanced process will extract more metal from each tonne of raw material, thereby reducing waste and improving sustainability.

Despite producing 151,497 tonnes of zinc in 2024—a 7.7% drop from 2023—Boliden attributed the decline to limited electrolysis capacity during the construction phase. Now fully operational, the Odda site is expected to run at full capacity, contributing significantly to Europe’s zinc supply.

This expansion underscores Boliden’s long-term commitment to modernizing critical metal infrastructure while aligning with sustainability goals across the European mining sector.

European Bi, In Price Rallies Stall on Profit-Taking

The surge in European bismuth and indium prices has decelerated as sellers capitalize on the substantial gains made in the second quarter, prompting slight declines in the past two weeks. Initially, speculation and constrained feedstock availability in China drove a sharp rise in prices, leading European sellers to elevate their offers in line with increasing replacement costs.

Bismuth prices in Europe saw a remarkable 77% increase from April to June but experienced a modest dip in early July due to profit-taking activities. Traders, seeking to benefit from the recent price rally, sold long-held low-cost materials at discounted rates compared to the higher-cost replacement materials sourced from China.

Similarly, indium prices, which reached a nine-year peak of $373-413/kg in June, have slightly receded to $373-401/kg. This adjustment followed a downturn in the Chinese domestic market, prompting European sellers to lower their offers and secure profits from the 35% price rise seen in the second quarter.

Despite tepid demand from European consumers, both metals experienced rapid price hikes in the second quarter, driven by elevated replacement costs from China. Chinese export prices for bismuth surged by 63% from April to June, remaining stable at $6.14-6.26/lb fob. Environmental inspections in China, which restricted the supply of bismuth concentrates from lead and zinc refineries, and speculative trading further exacerbated this price rise.

Indium supply constraints from China's Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi provinces due to environmental checks, coupled with trading activities on the Zhonglianjin platform, propelled prices upward. Although Chinese export prices for indium peaked at $371-391/kg fob in mid-May, they declined to $359-374/kg through June as trading activity slowed.

Speculation Fuels Minor Metal Price Increases

The swift price increases for bismuth and indium have spurred speculation about potential hikes in other minor metals such as selenium, tellurium, and germanium, whose prices are already trending upward.

Selenium prices in Europe were assessed at $10.40-13.10/lb duty unpaid Rotterdam, up from $10.30-12.40/lb at the end of June, marking a 7% rise in the second quarter driven by higher replacement costs from China and consistent demand.

Tellurium prices rose by 13% in June, last assessed at $91-99/kg duty unpaid Rotterdam, reflecting tight supply in European warehouses and rising prices in China.

Germanium metal prices hit a nine-year high of $1,810-2,010/kg cif main airport on July 2, up from $1,620-1,920/kg at the start of June, following an increase in Chinese export prices. The average germanium price in the first half of this year was $1,607/kg, significantly higher than the 10-year average of $1,324/kg, due to export controls limiting supply outside China.

Spot demand for most minor metals in Europe remains sluggish and is expected to stay low over the summer. However, market participants are closely monitoring China for indications of which minor metals might experience the next price spike, given Europe's heavy reliance on Chinese exports for many of these metals.

Develop Global Secures Offtake Agreement and Loan with Trafigura for Woodlawn Mine Restart

Trafigura

Develop Global has finalized a five-year offtake deal and a $63.9 million loan facility with Trafigura, paving the way for the reopening of the Woodlawn copper and zinc mine in early 2025.

A Major Step for Woodlawn Mine

Australian miner Develop Global and commodity trading giant Trafigura have formalized the terms of a pivotal agreement to support the reopening of the long-shuttered Woodlawn copper and zinc mine in New South Wales, Australia. The mine, which has been inactive for nearly three decades, is slated to restart ore extraction in early 2025, with the first concentrates expected by Q2 2025.

The agreement includes:

• A five-year offtake deal, ensuring Trafigura will purchase all minerals processed at Woodlawn.
• A commitment by Develop to produce at least 650,000 tonnes of zinc, copper, and lead concentrates within five years.
• A A$100 million ($63.9 million) loan facility provided by Trafigura, with repayment options via offtake payments or quarterly installments.

Develop Global previously assured investors in August 2024 that the Woodlawn project was "fully-funded through to production," and this deal solidifies its financial foundation.

Strengthening Supply Amid Global Copper Challenges

The deal comes at a critical time as the global copper supply chain faces significant challenges:

• Ecuador’s copper concentrate exports are projected to drop by 20% in 2024 due to production constraints.
• European producer Aurubis, the region's largest copper recycler, has announced reduced output for the 2023–2024 fiscal year.

Woodlawn's reopening will help alleviate some of the pressure on global copper and zinc markets, supplying critical materials for construction, manufacturing, and the renewable energy sector.

A Boost for Regional Mining

The reopening of the Woodlawn Mine marks a milestone for Australia’s mining industry, contributing to the local economy while ensuring a steady supply of base metals. With on-site facilities capable of processing ore into high-quality concentrates, Woodlawn is well-positioned to become a key supplier in the region. The partnership with Trafigura underscores the importance of strategic collaborations in bringing dormant mines back online.

Lundin Mining Eyes Argentina Incentives to Advance Vicuña Copper Project

Lundin Mining

Copper price rally offsets production dip as Lundin expands in South America

Lundin Mining Argentina copper incentives may become a key strategic lever for advancing its Vicuña project amid a global copper bull run. The company is evaluating Argentina’s Incentives Regime for Large Investments (RIGI), which offers tax relief, streamlined customs, and royalty reductions for large-scale projects.

Vicuña project gains traction under pro-investment Argentine policy

Lundin is bullish on Argentina’s current investment climate under President Javier Milei. The Vicuña project—located in the Andes and rich in copper, gold, and silver—is in pre-construction. If approved under RIGI, it would gain critical cost advantages and regulatory support, enhancing its competitiveness in the South American copper belt.

Profit soars despite Q1 output declines

Lundin’s Q1 2025 copper output declined 4% year-on-year to 77,000 tonnes, while shipments fell to 81,000 tonnes. However, surging copper prices—ranging between $4.43 and $4.63/lb—doubled the company’s net profit to $168 million. Nickel performance weakened, with output and sales down sharply from Q1 2024. Lundin remains focused on reaching 303,000–330,000 tonnes of copper output by year-end and recently divested its European zinc assets to Boliden for $1.4 billion.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lundin’s pursuit of Argentine incentives reflects growing investor interest in copper projects outside traditional jurisdictions. With copper demand surging and Argentina offering favorable fiscal terms, the Vicuña project could emerge as a new anchor in Lundin’s Americas-focused strategy.

MMG copper output 2025 hits seven-year high on Las Bambas surge

MMG

MMG copper output 2025 hit a seven-year high as the Chinese miner leveraged strong performance at Las Bambas in Peru. MMG copper output 2025 reached 506,899t, with growth underpinned by record ore mined, processed and recovered across its global portfolio. As a result, MMG copper output 2025 highlights how Chinese-backed assets are reshaping global copper supply and treatment charge dynamics.

Las Bambas and Khoemacau anchor MMG’s copper growth

Las Bambas drove most of the increase in MMG copper output 2025. The Peruvian mine produced 410,834t of copper in concentrate, up 27pc year on year. Higher ore mining rates, improved plant throughput and stronger recovery combined to lift site performance.

MMG set a 400,000t production target for Las Bambas in 2026, signalling confidence in the mine’s stability. However, community risks and logistics in Peru will remain key watchpoints for traders and smelters. Higher sustained output from Las Bambas will reinforce Peru’s position as a core supplier to Asian and Atlantic copper markets.

Khoemacau in Botswana added new growth momentum to MMG’s profile. The mine delivered 42,120t of copper concentrate in 2025, up 36pc from 2024. MMG plans to expand Khoemacau’s capacity to 130,000 t/yr by 2028, with longer-term potential to reach 200,000 t/yr after further studies.

DRC expansion and tightening treatment charges

MMG’s Kinsevere operation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo contributed to the stronger MMG copper output 2025. Copper cathode production at Kinsevere rose 18pc to 52,791t. An expansion project, which delivered its first cathode in late 2024, should push annual output to 65,000–75,000t in 2026. This reinforces the DRC’s role as a key growth hub for refined copper supply.

Meanwhile, MMG reported a mixed picture in other base metals. Zinc output increased by 6pc to 232,060t, while lead production slipped 5pc to 39,608t. However, the broader copper concentrate market remained the tightest stress point for smelters. Concentrate supply lagged new smelting capacity, pushing treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) deep into negative territory.

Smelter TC/RC benchmarks turned sharply lower through 2025, reflecting a continued shortage of clean copper concentrate. The Metalnomist smelter purchase index fell from slightly positive levels in early 2025 to significantly negative by year-end. Trader purchase indices weakened even further as competition intensified for spot tonnes. This environment favours well-positioned miners like MMG with scalable, low-cost concentrate streams.

Strategic implications for global copper supply

The step-up in MMG copper output 2025 underscores the influence of Chinese state-linked capital in strategic copper regions. Las Bambas, Khoemacau and Kinsevere together form a diversified platform across Peru, Botswana and the DRC. This geographic spread reduces single-asset risk while deepening China’s indirect exposure to offshore copper units.

For smelters, MMG’s growth slightly eases concentrate tightness but does not fully resolve structural deficit. New Asian and European smelting projects continue to outpace mine supply growth, keeping downward pressure on TC/RCs. As a result, smelters face margin squeeze unless by-product credits or premiums can offset weaker treatment terms.

Downstream, strong MMG copper output 2025 supports long-term energy transition demand. Additional tonnes from Las Bambas and future Khoemacau expansions will feed wiring, renewables, EVs and grid investments. However, the aggressive project pipeline also depends on stable permitting, local community relations and predictable fiscal regimes in host countries.

Focus keyphrases: MMG copper output 2025, Las Bambas copper, Khoemacau Botswana copper, Kinsevere DRC copper, copper concentrate TC/RCs, global copper supply growth

The Metalnomist Commentary

MMG copper output 2025 reinforces the miner’s position as a pivotal supplier into a structurally tight copper concentrate market. While rising volumes from Las Bambas, Khoemacau and Kinsevere are welcome news for smelters and traders, they arrive in a world where new refining capacity still outstrips mine growth. Expect continued pressure on TC/RCs and a premium for diversified, scalable copper producers like MMG as the energy transition accelerates.